2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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A_Gupta
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2019 02:25

https://swarajyamag.com/videos/why-catt ... beef-mafia
Why Cattle Owners Are Helpless In Their Struggle Against The Beef Mafia

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 08 Jun 2019 03:56

Concluding last part of five on 2019 elections


https://scroll.in/article/925440/verdic ... two-states

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 08 Jun 2019 06:15

chaitanya wrote:...


DharmaB wrote:...


Sir ji's, will gather my thoughts on this and respond in the "Tradition, Culture, Religion & Law in Indian Society" thread within a day or two.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 08 Jun 2019 13:46

note which media organisation and media presstitute family is cheering for which failed political dynasty and carefully choose your TV channels at home

boycott these turds

their incredibly slanted and biased coverage over the years/decades finally resulted to two consecutive stillbirths.

such a long and sustained coverage is impossible unless some shadowy entity is footing the bill and is furthering an agenda.



Image

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2019 18:45

Very old-timers might remember the "Forum of Indian Leftists" and "South Asian Citizens Web" , Vijay Parshad, Angana Chatterjee and other such notables uniting to defame the Indian Development and Relief Fund (IDRF), and trying to get it shut down. Part of beating it back was donating to the IDRF. IMO, a similar campaign has started against Akshaya Patra, that provides school lunches to children in India, and it needs to be beaten back.

An article on what's going on:
Tasteless Tales: Why Charges Against Akshaya Patra Are Misleading
https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/tasteless ... misleading

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 08 Jun 2019 20:59

A_GuptaJi, saw an interview with Mohandas Pai on this campaign. It was started by westernized Bimbo filth like Fey D'Souza on MirrorNow who have nothing in common with vast majority of Hindus.

In an ideal world, I would say these assorted Bimbos, Hindu haters, and BIF ought to be ignored. But like the BJP is lynching Muslims campaign, or BJP supports child rapists campaign post Kathua rape & murder of a minor child etc, this campaign may soon hit the headlines in NYT, WP, and Economist etc, given the reach of BIF. I follow Burka Bibi's twitter line, and she usually runs to her WP sugar daddies to whine about BJP/ModiJi. She may have already done that. Imagine how catchy a headline such as "Hindu Brahmins deny impoverished Indian children meat protein" will be in western countries? The condescending wave of outrage and sympathy will drown out all their crimes in the court of public opinion.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby disha » 08 Jun 2019 22:10

A_Gupta wrote:An article on what's going on:
Tasteless Tales: Why Charges Against Akshaya Patra Are Misleading
https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/tasteless ... misleading


It boomeranged ugly on #AntiHindu Faye D'Souza and Sylvia whatever. Akshay Patra received some Rs. 21 lakhs donation so far (and still counting)., The Chindu newspaper had an internal feud going around with Malini and N. Ram at each other and threw their own editor under the bus. Our own doc did a complete chaddi uttaro (pull down the shorts) of Sylvia whatever and Faye D'Souza now have to fight daily 'saffronized twitter trolls'!

Cherry on top was people watching Karan Thapar after all! That is to see him getting slapped resoundingly again and again and again by Md. Arif Khan.

Of course the BIF and their paid bimbos in Bollywood and their assorted #mediapimps will continue with the charade. But with each passing day when a person is pulled out of poverty, a person enters from lower-middle class to middle class, a person finds that their greatest asset is their family and its well being - that same person will pull out a phone - get on the twitter and create a meme and go :rotfl: on that charade.
Last edited by disha on 09 Jun 2019 08:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 08 Jun 2019 22:49

forget the rest.

THIS is called Trolling.

With the BJP in power, someone has a real sense of humour




Assam Police Verified account @assampolice

Anyone lost a huge (590 kgs) amount of Cannabis/Ganja and a truck in and around Chagolia Checkpoint last night?

Don't panic, we found it.

Please get in touch with @Dhubri_Police. They will help you out, for sure :wink:

Great job Team Dhubri.


Image

8:21 am - 4 Jun 2019, 11,571 Retweets 37,016 Likes

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2019 23:12

CRamS wrote:A_GuptaJi, saw an interview with Mohandas Pai on this campaign. It was started by westernized Bimbo filth like Fey D'Souza on MirrorNow who have nothing in common with vast majority of Hindus.

In an ideal world, I would say these assorted Bimbos, Hindu haters, and BIF ought to be ignored. But like the BJP is lynching Muslims campaign, or BJP supports child rapists campaign post Kathua rape & murder of a minor child etc, this campaign may soon hit the headlines in NYT, WP, and Economist etc, given the reach of BIF. I follow Burka Bibi's twitter line, and she usually runs to her WP sugar daddies to whine about BJP/ModiJi. She may have already done that. Imagine how catchy a headline such as "Hindu Brahmins deny impoverished Indian children meat protein" will be in western countries? The condescending wave of outrage and sympathy will drown out all their crimes in the court of public opinion.


Whatever power we have to support our organizations, we should use it, aggressively. These bimbos, haters, etc., should become hesitant to raise any false issue, because our reaction will be to make the foundations stronger, and to have the opposite of the effect that they desire.

Further, AFAIK, there are 120 million school lunches served in India daily, out of which the Akshaya Patra Foundation (TAPF) serves 1.8 million. So surely those who are complaining have some governmental or non-governmental organization in mind, about which they can say - this is an exemplar, TAPF should follow this example. I'd have some respect for them. But they have none. They want to tear down, not build up.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 09 Jun 2019 07:10

Needs to be supported. If we don't, not many others will.



Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3 Jun 4

Once again hammering this in. The sheer accuracy of the 5Forty3 statistical models was nearly 100% in the 2019 elections!

(Sorry for the self-promotion, but hardly anybody else will acknowledge, it so we have to do it again & again).


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sum » 09 Jun 2019 08:04

Extraordinarily accurate!! Truely some great modelling techniques

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 09 Jun 2019 08:24

Actually unbelievable. Nobody samples like this.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 09 Jun 2019 08:32

I was very put off by his "calling the election for BJP" after Phase IV, and was praying for the Dilbu anti-jinx to work to neutralize that.

To Patil ji's credit, he made a prediction, and stayed with it till the end. One day before counting, he tweeted (in Morse Code) that "BJP will better its 2014 tally." He's been painted as a U-turn maniac, he's done that in the past and to be honest, I was expecting him to do the same this time, but this time, he stuck to his guns against all the naysayers, and turned out to be fully vindicated.

And yes, his prediction was bang on, he's not taking any undeserved credit. The median number of seats he predicted for BJP was indeed 304, and for the NDA, 364. And he made this prediction right after Phase VII, and then did not change it in any way. His credibility and future were in line, must have taken some nerve to stand boldly by his numbers.

Hats off to him.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 09 Jun 2019 10:40

chetak wrote:Needs to be supported. If we don't, not many others will.



[b]Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3 Jun 4


Thanks and I agree. I continue to do my part, and hope he succeeds.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KL Dubey » 09 Jun 2019 10:48

sudarshan wrote:I was very put off by his "calling the election for BJP" after Phase IV, and was praying for the Dilbu anti-jinx to work to neutralize that.

To Patil ji's credit, he made a prediction, and stayed with it till the end. One day before counting, he tweeted (in Morse Code) that "BJP will better its 2014 tally." He's been painted as a U-turn maniac, he's done that in the past and to be honest, I was expecting him to do the same this time, but this time, he stuck to his guns against all the naysayers, and turned out to be fully vindicated.

And yes, his prediction was bang on, he's not taking any undeserved credit. The median number of seats he predicted for BJP was indeed 304, and for the NDA, 364. And he made this prediction right after Phase VII, and then did not change it in any way. His credibility and future were in line, must have taken some nerve to stand boldly by his numbers.

Hats off to him.


While your positive opinion of Dr. BB is certainly good, criticizing him for "U-turns" is perhaps not fully understanding of his methodology. Polling day trends can actually be different from pre-poll predictions depending on the voting turnout, and 543 is the only outfit as of now that can provide information on such changes essentially in "real time" on voting day. He did so in the KA assembly elections and in fact he was correct that a lower voter turnout prevented BJP from achieving the predicted majority.

In the case of MP-RJ-CG elections, he stuck to his predictions till the results were declared, but was honest that he had a very skeletal team on the ground for those polls. He got the vote share correct to within 2% in both MP and RJ. In MP that was not enough to predict results correctly, since there were more than 20 seats with razor-thin margins and NOTA issues that are nearly impossible to predict.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 09 Jun 2019 12:05

Psephologists are judged by their results, but it would be more sensible to judge them by their methodological rigor . PP is extremely good at forecasting wave elections . He hasn’t ever had a false positive in one, ie he never estimated a wave election when there actually wasn’t one . He has one instance of a false negative - CG 2018 where he didn’t see the wave against BJP (but then no one did) . Pretty much all others he was pretty good at forecasting voteshare - even RJ and MP 2018 .

Psephologists get a bad rap from observers who simply do not take time to understand what they are doing . They’re not supposed to be used as an astrologer . They may see an early trend prepoll that completely reverses itself mid poll and they’re simply constrained to report that.

All of them have their biases . PP has been very good at projecting accurately despite his BJP bias . Take anthro.ai as a contrary case - they invested a lot of money (foreign movers and shakers no doubt), COMPLETELY got the trend wrong , made some lame mansplaining post on May 23 about getting weights wrong, and have since gone quiet .

I contributed to PP four times this cycle . I didn’t care about the allegations . His efforts have value . I was willing to pay for value, and to see him get his work done . People talk about ‘ecosystems’ . PP is part of the center right ecosystem . In the face of a very well funded anthro.ai type foreign effort to manipulate our elections, I wasn’t going to be stupid and demand perfection of PP before I would give him a $.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 09 Jun 2019 13:45

I too, contributed my little bit to finance PP's election effort. But I also feel that he could mine such data as he has, to produce a hundred more stories. Then people wouldn't mind contributing a little each time for reading his analysis. I am sure there are at least a few dozen stories at the level of individual constituency that he can narrate, as to what worked and what didn't. Each article can be priced at say Rs 100. His present subscription model of a minimum of Rs 999 is a bit of a stretch financially, for some of us on this forum.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby morem » 09 Jun 2019 21:18

nandakumar wrote:I too, contributed my little bit to finance PP's election effort. But I also feel that he could mine such data as he has, to produce a hundred more stories. Then people wouldn't mind contributing a little each time for reading his analysis. I am sure there are at least a few dozen stories at the level of individual constituency that he can narrate, as to what worked and what didn't. Each article can be priced at say Rs 100. His present subscription model of a minimum of Rs 999 is a bit of a stretch financially, for some of us on this forum.


Did my part, a small contribution

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 09 Jun 2019 22:10

Fair enough Dubey ji.

Interesting that the satta markets were stuck at around 240 for BJP (or was that for NDA)? With the theory being that people are waging their money on that, so it would be based on sound inputs. I guess there is a cautious streak even in betters, and they too missed the wave sentiments.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby srin » 09 Jun 2019 22:39

Forgive my naivette and my bluntness, wrt PP's accurate analysis, the most obvious question is: "what's in it for me" ? It didn't change the way I voted, it didn't change the results and I got to see the real results on May 23rd anyway.

Who real benefits from the accurate estimation like from PP ? I'm sure political parties might pay for him, I'm sure (if he's built some credibility) that some mutual fund AMCs and big investors may pay for the info (and take appropriate positions in stock market). But why would normal mango person care about it ?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby disha » 09 Jun 2019 23:08

srin wrote:Forgive my naivette and my bluntness, wrt PP's accurate analysis, the most obvious question is: "what's in it for me" ? It didn't change the way I voted, it didn't change the results and I got to see the real results on May 23rd anyway.

Who real benefits from the accurate estimation like from PP? I'm sure political parties might pay for him, I'm sure (if he's built some credibility) that some mutual fund AMCs and big investors may pay for the info (and take appropriate positions in stock market). But why would normal mango person care about it ?


Why do you think BJP lost 2004 and 2009? Or why did UPA-2 missed the 2014 Modi wave and why did all eCONomists, Bollywood bimbos and us included missed the Tsunamo of 2019? A near 2/3rd super majority for NDA?

There is a lot for the mango man here. First of all, false narratives are very very hard to counter once it takes hold. For example, all Hindus are casteists. Since you may be a Hindu, you definitely are casteist. That is a false narrative that one might never will be able to counter.

Same in 2004., "India Shining" failed. What actually failed was back-to-back drought shifting some seats around. Transition of power in BJP. Incoherent poll strategy and booth management. But the cause was not understood and the voter apathy was blamed again in 2009 and what we got was 5-year of stagflation from 2009-2014 impacting all.

UPA-2 doubled down on "food rights", "land rights" and created an entitlement economy leading to massive corruption. Further vote bank politics and "minority" appeasement was sharpened, since they were the swing voters. The result of it is still seen in economic and social landscapes throughout the nation.

In 2014, once Modi came to power., people were laughing at his development model and focus on the basics. The extreme Hindu nationalists were whining that Modi is not doing enough for Hindu causes. Several pages on this forum are testament to those whines. But Modi proved that his development model and focus on basics works. Too well. Now he has got a mandate and his focus is "Pucca house for every family, piped water to every home, a road to every village". And his appeal to do "Sabka Vishwas" is to break down the vote bank based politics and move towards performance based politics.

Will the above work? Yes, since we now have data from PP that it was not just pulwama/balakote (which is what the western & bakistani media focuses on and only that) but toilets and gas cylinders and electric bulbs that won the day along with JDAM (Jan-Dhan Adhar Mobile) and zero corruption in top offices. Interestingly, the CONgoons are focussing on how much "marketing" Modi has done and hence more "marketing" of #Pappu and #Pappini is needed. At this rate, even fence sitters are predicting that Modi may win 350+ in 2024 !!!

So a psephologist proposes a theory (or set of theory) and models it and predicts an outcome. The actual outcome validates (or invalidates) those theories. And that gives information to the polity on what works and what does not. This is very important in any democracy, basically a feedback loop.

It is always possible that the theory and modeling will be entirely wrong and still predict an outcome which is matched. However such a likelihood even though possible is remote since every five years the theory and modeling needs to be tuned.

So yes, do contribute to PP since he is breaking down the monopoly of corporates funded media houses on doing data analysis. That independent data analysis is very very much needed.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sudarshan » 10 Jun 2019 00:00

disha wrote:In 2014, once Modi came to power., people were laughing at his development model and focus on the basics. The extreme Hindu nationalists were whining that Modi is not doing enough for Hindu causes. Several pages on this forum are testament to those whines. But Modi proved that his development model and focus on basics works. Too well. Now he has got a mandate and his focus is "Pucca house for every family, piped water to every home, a road to every village". And his appeal to do "Sabka Vishwas" is to break down the vote bank based politics and move towards performance based politics.

Will the above work? Yes, since we now have data from PP that it was not just pulwama/balakote (which is what the western & bakistani media focuses on and only that) but toilets and gas cylinders and electric bulbs that won the day along with JDAM (Jan-Dhan Adhar Mobile) and zero corruption in top offices. Interestingly, the CONgoons are focussing on how much "marketing" Modi has done and hence more "marketing" of #Pappu and #Pappini is needed. At this rate, even fence sitters are predicting that Modi may win 350+ in 2024 !!!

So a psephologist proposes a theory (or set of theory) and models it and predicts an outcome. The actual outcome validates (or invalidates) those theories. And that gives information to the polity on what works and what does not. This is very important in any democracy, basically a feedback loop.

It is always possible that the theory and modeling will be entirely wrong and still predict an outcome which is matched. However such a likelihood even though possible is remote since every five years the theory and modeling needs to be tuned.

So yes, do contribute to PP since he is breaking down the monopoly of corporates funded media houses on doing data analysis. That independent data analysis is very very much needed.


Yep, this is what it is. An opinion poll or exit poll isn't (or shouldn't be) just "who did you vote for?" and who actually won or lost. There's some value to the political parties or even voters in knowing, months beforehand, which way the wind is blowing. But it isn't just that.

A responsible pollster would also ask "why do you want to vote for this party?" or "why did you vote for this party?" Does the actual election result reflect that? The actual result is a black box, we can surmise what worked for the party and what didn't, but it's a secret ballot with no indication of "why did this party win?" The political parties might of course do their own survey, but are they going to release that to the public?

PP did call out the nonsense of "Balakot caused the BJP win." He was emphatic that it was delivery of basic services that was doing it for Modi, not some vague feel-good on showing Pakistan its place. Not that Balakot was just about showing Pakistan its place, it was a well thought out strategy of reversing decades of inaction, it was probably even planned out way in advance as a "what if" scenario.

Plus, PP has been calling out the breakdown of the old caste assumptions for a while now. He said two or three years ago, that 50% of India was going to be on the same side (BJP) in 2019. These are the things you can't get simply by looking at the election results. You can go do your own data-mining on the data in the EC website (after the fact!) but folks like PP give you this kind of view from early on, and the view is also pretty comprehensive.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Lilo » 10 Jun 2019 20:33

This piece is by R Rajagopalan (a political commentator/journalist on the BJP circuit) quoting his "sources".
However I hope what he outlined in this piece will be the overall approach of this Govt to getting things done in India by making Babu's accountable & positively selecting the performing ones into empowered roles.
Eventually 40% of joint secs to be non-IAS
R Rajagopalan 9 June, 2019
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his second term is keen to improve the efficiency of bureaucracy by expanding the policy of lateral entry that would facilitate recruitment of at least 40 per cent of officers at the Joint Secretary from outside the system. The joint secretaries who form the backbone of various administrative ministries in Delhi are so far sourced from IAS cadre officers.

The Prime Minister feels that the lateral entry will help bring in domain experts into the administrative system in place of the generalists who have been ruling the roost so far. His thinking is that policy interventions now require innovation and efficiency for which one needs to fall back upon technological tools. To source them one needs talents outside the system. Modi feels regular all-India service officers mixed with fresh minds from outside would deliver better results.

Recently the government issued appointment letters to 10 persons who form the first batch of lateral entry officers. They have been selected by the UPSC. The next batch of 55 officers, who will be equivalent to the rank of joint secretaries, will be selected through NITI Aayog, instead of UPSC. NITI Aayog, which is the think tank of the government, will process the recruitment of lateral entry officers.

In some departments the process of lateral entry has already begun. Modi has brought in Parameswaran Iyer, a technocrat, as secretary to the department of drinking water in Rural Development Ministry. Iyer, who was a civil servant, had resigned from the cadre to join an international institution. Now he has returned as a lateral entry officer.

Qualified professionals equivalent to the rank of secretary have already been introduced in the department of Aayush and Sanitation in Modi’s first term. These posts have been labelled as ‘flexi-pool posts’. So far these experts were being hired by NITI Aayog as consultants on a need basis. After an initial period of five years their work would be reviewed and given an extension of three years.

The Prime Minister is keen to introduce the new system of large scale sourcing of lateral entry officers from 2020. This is likely to result in a massive re-jig of the administration and the preparations have already begun.

Roping in private sector talent

According to sources the government plans to advertise for direct recruitment of more than four dozen positions in NITI Aayog at different levels, including directors, joint secretaries and even at the level of the additional secretaries. They will have a fixed salary of over ₹3 lakh and a minimum tenure of five years. These new posts would enjoy parity with regular government servant positions. The proposed advertisement for these posts is being monitored by the Department of Personnel under the PMO. NITI Aayog is seeking talents from private sector to fill these posts.

The idea of lateral entry of officials into the administration is not new. Prime Minister Morarji Desai had appointed MS Swaminathan as his Agriculture Secretary. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had appointed V Krishnamurthy as Steel Secretary and Vijay Kelkar as Petroleum Secretary. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi during his term brought in Manmohan Singh as Finance Secretary.

Perhaps, taking a cue from his predecessors, Narendra Modi is seeking to alter the mix of joint secretaries in the government by opening up the policy to include large scale lateral entry.


Another related news which also touches upon the plans of this GOI to expand the lateral entry scheme.
Modi govt could revisit plan to allot IAS, IPS cadre after foundation course
The changes, which includes an expansion of the lateral entry scheme, are part of a DoPT plan that it will share with the PMO this week.
SANYA DHINGRA Updated: 10 June, 2019 8:15 am IST

...
The idea of a unified foundation course was first proposed by the PMO last year. It was suggested that candidates selected by the UPSC would be allotted services not on the basis of their rankings in the UPSC exam, but on the basis of a unified foundation course.

The proposal, however, was put on the backburner after the government faced enormous backlash for attempting to tweak the recruitment of civil servants, and introducing a high degree of subjectivity in the process of service allocation.

The DoPT wants to make a fresh attempt to bring all 1,000-1,200 candidates selected by UPSC under a unified foundation course soon after they are recruited by the commission.
...


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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 10 Jun 2019 21:18

A key reform for all India Cadre services is to re-emphasize they are All India services and not state cadre.
Currently after Central deputation they revert to state and become glorified peons for the state political parties.

This has to be discouraged.
I want Center to have the power to re-assign these folks across states .

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Lilo » 11 Jun 2019 09:36


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok9WTEc ... e=youtu.be

Shri Arif Khan says what has not been said in a long time on national television...
That "only Muslims should represent Muslims" thinking of Karan Thapar & his ilk is the basis for separate electorates & which directly lead to Partition of India.
Partition of India resulted in massacares of millions(majority non muslims) & continuing genocide of tens of millions of Hindus left behind in the Islamist states since past 70 years... & with 1/3 of prepartitioned India taken over by Muslims for themselves to the exclusion of others.
Last edited by Lilo on 11 Jun 2019 16:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Dumal » 11 Jun 2019 10:34

Lilo wrote:Shri Arif Khan says what has not been said in a long time on national television...


What a masterpiece! So glad to see people like AMK exercising their voices and for us to hear them. What a beautiful, spontaneous response to the issue that people make of Hindutva! Amazing!!!

BTW, don't need to wonder where he was all this time, I guess. I am sure smothered, stifled and bundled up by the secular forces.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ramana » 11 Jun 2019 10:41

A new paradigm will be created when a Hindu is posted to KSA as ambassador.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kashi » 11 Jun 2019 11:31

ramana wrote:A new paradigm will be created when a Hindu is posted to KSA as ambassador.


Ramana sir, how would that be a new paradigm, I mean what far-reaching consequences can we expect if this did happen?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2019 12:01

such a thing is very bad for India. Why did sushma, earlier and now Modi have to overfly paki airspace on their way to Bishkek while the rest of us yahoos need to skirt paki airspace and pay extra to do so.

There is extreme inconsistency in our paki policy with the same gent not knowing what he would do from one day to the next and his constantly changing whims and fancies.

what is good enough for the rest of India should be good enough to the powers that be in dilli. To avoid a few measly additional hours of flight time, we went petitioning to the pakis to be allowed to use their airspace, and why, is India's self respect so devalued.

or did we enter into a deal with the pakis under ameriki pressure while denying the same in our public utterances




Pakistan allows Narendra Modi’s aircraft to fly over its airspace to Bishkek for SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan




After turning the heat on Pakistan, why is the government petitioning it for overflight permission to PM Modi?

June 11, 2019, Vivek Katju in TOI Edit Page

The government’s decision to request Pakistan for overflight permission for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to travel to Bishkek for the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO) summit on June 13-14, is disappointing.

This request follows one made in May for the travel of former external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj to Bishkek to participate in the SCO foreign ministers meeting. While it cleared Swaraj’s travel, its airspace remains effectively closed still for normal civilian flight operations from/to India. This is causing immense hardship to lakhs of Indian and foreign travellers.

Would it not have been better for government to show solidarity with common travellers, including the great number of workers who live in the Gulf countries and make significant contributions to India’s economy? This is especially because Modi has displayed great concern for the welfare of the ordinary people. While the PM’s time is precious it can be imaginatively utilised through stop-overs as well as during flights. Thus, saving time cannot be used as an excuse for the request nor can overflying Iran be considered taboo.

There is another compelling reason why favours should never be sought from Pakistan. These relate to the mindset of the Pakistani establishment on India. Pakistan’s ruling dispensation thinks in religious terms, especially when it looks at India. This is on account of historical reasons and the two-nation theory which is the country’s foundational doctrine.


Pakistani decision-makers believe that India lacks stamina and is ever willing to compromise, especially when profit is at stake. Thus, General Ayub Khan’s biographer notes that the Pakistani leader was convinced that Hindus cannot take more than a few hard knocks. In fact, he traces Pakistan’s 1965 misadventure to this strongly held Ayub conviction. This seems incredible for Ayub Khan had served in the British Indian army and should have come to know the resilience, stamina and fighting prowess of non-Muslim soldiers. It can only be attributed to historical prejudices which continue, though the events of 1971 should have eroded them.


These prejudices also continue because ever since Pakistan began sponsoring full scale cross border terrorism since 1989-90, successive Indian governments have pursued inconsistent policies in handling Pakistani terrorism. India’s default position is that terrorism and dialogue cannot go together. However, time and again it has overlooked this position and begun a full dialogue.
Last edited by chetak on 11 Jun 2019 12:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby plushyphen » 11 Jun 2019 12:07

Lilo wrote:This piece is by R Rajagopalan (a political commentator/journalist on the BJP circuit) quoting his "sources".
However I hope what he outlined in this piece will be the overall approach of this Govt to getting things done in India by making Babu's accountable & positively selecting the performing ones into empowered roles.
Eventually 40% of joint secs to be non-IAS
R Rajagopalan 9 June, 2019
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his second term is keen to improve the efficiency of bureaucracy by expanding the policy of lateral entry that would facilitate recruitment of at least 40 per cent of officers at the Joint Secretary from outside the system. The joint secretaries who form the backbone of various administrative ministries in Delhi are so far sourced from IAS cadre officers.
....................

...
The idea of a unified foundation course was first proposed by the PMO last year. It was suggested that candidates selected by the UPSC would be allotted services not on the basis of their rankings in the UPSC exam, but on the basis of a unified foundation course.

The proposal, however, was put on the backburner after the government faced enormous backlash for attempting to tweak the recruitment of civil servants, and introducing a high degree of subjectivity in the process of service allocation.

The DoPT wants to make a fresh attempt to bring all 1,000-1,200 candidates selected by UPSC under a unified foundation course soon after they are recruited by the commission.
...



Before promoting lateral entry, it is only logical and obvious to appreciate the fact that there are specialists within the government itself. If I remember correctly, during the initial months of Modi 1.0, there was a direction in writing to DoPT to ensure that non-IAS specialist services (the Revenue, Railway, Post, Account Services) may be empaneled for the post of Joint Secretary and above with as much enthusiasm as the Administrative Services. This direction, if followed in letter and spirit would have seen many specialists hold senior posts in analogous positions.

Imagine an IAS officer with no experience in fields like, for example,

a. tax-gap analysis
b. recovery of unpaid taxes from foreign assets
c. administration of withholding taxes
d. investigation of black money using third party information

head the Revenue Administration of the entire country.
Whereas I am not decrying the introduction of private specialists, the country's administration has been generalized for too long now. The better part of a century to be precise.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2019 12:19

This is also a warning to the obdurate, entrenched, entitled and an increasingly dynastic bureaucracy that they are not irreplaceable or even indispensable.

During the Modi-1 govt, wholesale sabotage and mayhem were perpetrated by the congi pasand baboo(n)s and the NGO controlled goondas/termites in the govt who put a spoke in every govt scheme and negated almost every govt initiative to reach out to the common people.

the huge difficulties faced by the govt during the rollout of the GST and the major fiasco during the demonetization was not mere happenstance

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 11 Jun 2019 12:34

^^ Be careful with what you wish for. While this is great for Modi government, imagine how this can misused by Congis by setting up unconstitutional bodies like NAC. Or using folks like Sam Pitroda. But then government's hands are also tied due to various factors like reservations etc.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2019 13:22

vimal wrote:^^ Be careful with what you wish for. While this is great for Modi government, imagine how this can misused by Congis by setting up unconstitutional bodies like NAC. Or using folks like Sam Pitroda. But then government's hands are also tied due to various factors like reservations etc.


i only wish for a truly nonpoliticized bureaucracy who as part of their sworn duties carry out the lawful directions of a legally elected govt without the burden of personal preferences, fear or favor or even ideology.

They have been recruited and paid just for this very specific function and nothing else.

If a stage has arisen after 70 odd years of independence where their very purpose and existence is being questioned and they are being sought to be bypassed to ensure that social justice initiatives of the govt take precedence over their biased views as also the workings of the govt are not disrupted by these recalcitrant tin pots, then the blame can be squarely laid at their very own doorsteps.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2019 14:08

posted without comment

Image

Karan M
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karan M » 11 Jun 2019 15:09

This guy according to several should have been court martialed and drummed out of service

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Pratyush » 11 Jun 2019 15:43

Karan M wrote:This guy according to several should have been court martialed and drummed out of service



I don't understand the context of the comment.

What had happened?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby plushyphen » 11 Jun 2019 17:28

chetak wrote:
vimal wrote:^^ Be careful with what you wish for. While this is great for Modi government, imagine how this can misused by Congis by setting up unconstitutional bodies like NAC. Or using folks like Sam Pitroda. But then government's hands are also tied due to various factors like reservations etc.


i only wish for a truly nonpoliticized bureaucracy who as part of their sworn duties carry out the lawful directions of a legally elected govt without the burden of personal preferences, fear or favor or even ideology.

They have been recruited and paid just for this very specific function and nothing else.

If a stage has arisen after 70 odd years of independence where their very purpose and existence is being questioned and they are being sought to be bypassed to ensure that social justice initiatives of the govt take precedence over their biased views as also the workings of the govt are not disrupted by these recalcitrant tin pots, then the blame can be squarely laid at their very own doorsteps.


Cannot agree more.
The bureaucracy can make or break policy. The absence of constitutional power (like the Polity or the Judiciary) is more than recompensed by its phoenix-like anatomy. It never ends. It never fades. It never disappears. It remembers. It recollects. It is the beginning and end of time. No one votes for or against it. But it decides what has to be done and when it has to be done.

Notwithstanding this, scant regard has been given for its healthy growth, training, compensation, upskilling and reskilling. Most of the specialist work is outsourced to the Bada Chaar by the Eye AAy Yes. And specialist organisations which could do very well without them are stifled. So what we have today are huge gangs of under-skilled and under-resourced bosses who rule their divisions like patriarchs, with no sympathy whatsoever to skill, merit or talent.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby CRamS » 11 Jun 2019 18:33

chetak wrote:
After turning the heat on Pakistan, why is the government petitioning it for overflight permission to PM Modi?


I am also a tad surprised at this move. Scanned through newspapers and didn't see any official govt's response to this request to TSP. On the face of it, yes bad move. But need to understand the rationale if any.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 11 Jun 2019 18:35

ANI Verified account @ANI
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Union Min MA Naqvi: To ensure socio-economic-educational empowerment of minorities especially girls through '3Es- Education, Employment & Empowerment,' various scholarships including pre-matric, post-matric, merit-cum-means etc will be provided to 5 crore students in next 5 yrs.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2019 19:00

Karan M wrote:This guy according to several should have been court martialed and drummed out of service


Couldn't agree more. even botox can't hide his shady, beady eyed, used car salesman demeanor, ever ready to sell you the pup.

look at his carefully dyed hair and eyebrows and the strategically placed scarf to hide his wrinkly neck.

and a grasping ambition to garner "his" "dues" from the track thoo gravy train, and freeeloading champagne cocktail circuit inhabitated by greats like money shankar aiyer and sudhindhra kulkarni.


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