Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Jul 2019 16:59

What the IMF numbers say

Import/export growth

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Exports are projected to grow from 7 to 10 per cent every year out till FY24, according to programme projections. In the last fiscal year, ended June 30, 2019, export growth was near zero. If the program projections are borne out, this will be the fastest pace of export growth the country has seen in well over a decade. But if the reality falls short of the projections, the resultant gap will need to be made up through other means to meet the reserve accumulation targets of the program. This could imply further borrowing, or perhaps an uptick in remittances, with consequences for the exchange rate.

External debt repayments

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Pakistan is aiming to repay up to $37.359 billion of external debt and liabilities over the programme duration, projections in the staff report released on Monday show. More than 60 per cent of this amount will be paid to China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Of the $16.278bn being repaid of Non-Paris Club bilateral debt, $7.946bn will be to China, $6.265bn will be to Saudi Arabia and $2.016bn will be to the UAE.

Graph above gives breakdown of all categories of external debt and liabilities to be repaid over the program period.

Repayments/rollover of external debt

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Substantial payment obligations kick in for short-term government debt — including amortisation and rollovers — from FY21. From next fiscal year, both rollovers and amortisation are scheduled to more than triple in size, and stay at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. Graph above gives amounts for amortisation and rollovers of short-term external debt as projected out to FY24 by the staff report.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Jul 2019 20:43

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,736.23 - Pt. Change : -86.88 - % Change : -0.22%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,08,894.63 - $ 1 / I N R : 68.7825

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,153.00 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,672.49 – Change : -202.91 - % Change : -0.6%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs Tr.) : 6,805,174,961,060 - $ 1 / T R : 158.4754

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U $ $.) : : 42.94 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.14 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Jul 2019 17:41

Pakistan-Turkey trade drops due to protective duties
KARACHI: The volume of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Turkey has dropped drastically from $1.08 billion to $792 million after the imposition of protective duty on textile by the latter.
Previously, textile exports to Turkey were based on normal tariffs, but later Turkey imposed a protective duty of 18%, which was very high, leading to a decline in textile exports to Turkey, said Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) President Daroo Khan Achakzai.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Jul 2019 19:24

Honda halts production in Pakistan, Indus to follow - Nasir Jamal
LAHORE: Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan (HACP) shut down its plant for 10 days on Friday as its inventories piled up to 2,000 units on plummeting car sales amid rising prices due to imposition of new, higher taxes in the budget and steep currency devaluation in the recent weeks.
Similarly, Indus Motor Company (IMC), which produces Toyota models in Pakistan, has also decided to stop car production for eight days, two days every week, during this month, company sources told Dawn.
Honda had kept its plant closed for two days earlier last week. However, a Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company spokesman told Dawn the company will take decision whether or not to cut down production in the next few days after analysing sales trend and flow of booking orders during the present month.
HACP and IMC executives, who spoke to Dawn on the condition of anonymity, said their decision to scale down production during July was informed by extremely lacklustre sales in the first 10 days of the current month.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 13 Jul 2019 20:39

Pakistan loses appeal against Broadsheet, to pay Rs5.21 bn penalty

WASHINGTON: Pakistan lost yet another case against Broadsheet LLC, as its plea has been dismissed by the London High Court, setting the total payable amount at more than 33 million dollars (Rs5.21 billion).

The London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) had awarded Islamabad a penalty of some 22 million dollars in the Broadsheet LLC case late last year. Dissatisfied, the state of Pakistan and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) then filed an appeal in London High Court under the UK Arbitration Act in early March this year. In the application, Pakistan maintained that the tribunal had failed to conduct the proceedings in accordance with the procedures agreed by the parties and the LCIA did not comply with the requirements of the award.

As claimants, the NAB and the state, had appealed to review the award decision. Broadsheet, a company incorporated in the Isle of Man, was hired by the NAB during former President Pervez Musharraf's regime to investigate hidden assets of over 150 Pakistanis abroad including the Sharif family. The agreement, however, was terminated by the NAB in 2003.

After that the company filed a claim against Pakistan worth millions of dollars in damages. Former English Court of Appeal judge Sir Anthony Evans QC heard the case at the London Court of International Arbitration as sole arbitrator under the rules of the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators.

The arbitration body heard the claim by Broadsheet and held that Pakistan was liable to pay damages as NAB wrongfully repudiated an asset recovery agreement with Broadsheet. The tribunal had ruled that Broadsheet LLC was entitled to damages and after the quantum stage, asked Pakistan to pay up the amount of almost 22 million dollars, as well as cost of the case to the plaintiff amounting to some 11 million dollars.

Pakistan decided to appeal the decision and approached the London High Court. According to Washington based law firm, Crowell & Moring, hired by Broadsheet LLC; the London High Court dismissed Pakistan's application on Friday and ruled that the reasoning of the tribunal and the claimants (the state of Pakistan and the NAB) are not entitled to seek (and accordingly it is not appropriate for the court to require), any further explanation as to how the conclusions were arrived at.

The judgment cited various other instances and stated that there was no basis in the case to conclude that the tribunal might well have reached a different view. "The complaint in this case is that the decision called for a further explanation as to how it was arrived at on the evidence. In my view even if that were a 'serious irregularity' there is no substantial injustice in the light of the clear statement in the section 57 ruling, in my view there is no possibility that the tribunal might well have reached a different view and produced a significantly different outcome," the London High Court decision said.

Pakistan now has to not only pay the initial award amounting to 22 million dollars, but also 11 million dollars in costs and damages to the company within next thirty days; as well as more than 87 thousand pounds in costs within next fifteen days. SOUPONNULLAH!

The latter amount relates to the appeal in the London High Court for which the Pakistan government and NAB have incurred a cost of over 192,000 pounds. Non-payment of the award and cost could result in enforcement actions likely to include seizure of Pakistan's state assets abroad. Possibly PIA Air Craft as well as Properties like The Roosevelt Hotel (Manhattan) etc.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 13 Jul 2019 23:02

AOA. Pakistan losses another Case of Arbitration, Check from 1:15 onwards. Its is another $6 Billion that pakistan will have to cough up. :rotfl:


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Jul 2019 01:48

Correction from 14:00 Onwards.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 14 Jul 2019 01:56

The broadsheet case is even murkier.

Apparently they had an agreement with NAB that if they find illegal money stashed abroad, they get a cut of the money they found. And rumors say that they found ~1B belonging to Badmash and others. Also rumors say that they were visited "in a personal capacity" by a jernail to get details of all the money they found. Broadsheet refused and was willing to hand over details only after they got the payment and only to NAB. Then the Jernail threatened them and even offered a percentage to broadsheet. After which some cases were registered against broadsheet and payments refused.

The jernails and "retired rogue ISI" are running a nice side operation under the guise of rooting out corruption.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 14 Jul 2019 02:06

Vips Ji :

World Bank court orders Pakistan pay $5.8 billion damages to Tethyan Copper

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - A World Bank arbitration court has ordered the Pakistani government pay damages of $5.8 billion to Tethyan Copper, a joint venture between Chile’s Antofagasta Plc (ANTO.L) and Canada’s Barrick Gold (ABX.TO), the Chilean miner said late on Friday.

Tethyan Copper discovered vast mineral wealth more than a decade ago in Reko Diq, at the foot of an extinct volcano near Pakistan’s frontier with Iran and Afghanistan. The deposit was set to rank among the world’s biggest untapped copper and gold mines.

The company said it had invested more than $220 million by the time Pakistan’s government, in 2011, unexpectedly refused to grant them the mining lease needed to keep operating.

The World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled against Pakistan in 2017, but until now had yet to determine the damages owed to Tethyan.

Tethyan board chair William Hayes said in a statement the company was still “willing to strike a deal with Pakistan,” but added that “it would continue protecting its commercial and legal interests until the dispute was over.”

The Reko Diq mine has become a test case for Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ability to attract serious foreign investment to Pakistan as it struggles to stave off an economic crisis that has forced it to seek an International Monetary Fund bailout.

Pakistan’s military sees Reko Diq as a strategic national asset and had taken a key role in its development amid the dispute with Antofagasta and Barrick, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters earlier this year.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 14 Jul 2019 17:28

Paki military have probably pawned the mineral resources over to China in exchange for some financial/strategic/military considerations. The Baloch are getting close to 0% of their own natural gas resources already, while Pakjab gets most of it, and they are further getting screwed out of their own land and resources by CPEC, Gawader and this mining deal.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 14 Jul 2019 18:28

Reqko Diq is largely a case of former chief justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Chaudhary trying to project himself a messiah and a crusader against corruption in pakistan. For personal glory he screwed paksitan and now they are in the hole for $6 Billion :rotfl:
This figure will further go up after paksitan will loose the appeal against it. The Porkis are so predictable if nothing else.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Jul 2019 01:44

Pakistan to pay foreign firm $6b over mine closure, World Bank says - AFP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will have to pay almost $6 billion in damages to a foreign gold mining firm whose dig was shut down by the government in 2011, the World Bank said on Sunday.

The consortium Tethyan Copper company — of which Canadian gold firm Barrick and Chile’s Antofagasta Minerals control 37.5 percent each — is the largest Foreign Direct Investment mining project in the country.

More than a decade ago the group found vast gold and copper deposits at Reko Diq in Balochistan, and had planned a hugely lucrative open-pit mine.

But the project came to a standstill in 2011 after the local government refused to renew the consortium’s lease, and in 2013 Supreme Court declared it invalid.

On Friday, the World Bank’s international arbitration tribunal committee awarded $5.84 billion in damages to Tethyan, according to a statement from the company, because of the government’s decision to shut down the mine.

Pakistan’s attorney general, Anwar Mansoor Khan, said in a statement they had noted the decision “with disappointment”.

The country’s legal experts were “studying the Award and reflecting upon its financial and legal implications,” the statement continued.

Ivan Arriagada, Antofagasta’s Chief Executive Officer, said: “We are pleased to reach this milestone after more than seven years of arbitration.”

“We remain willing to discuss the potential for a negotiated settlement with Pakistan and will continue to protect our commercial interests and legal rights until the conclusion of this dispute,” consortium chairman William Hayes added.

It comes weeks after prime minister Imran Khan secured a $6 billion bailout from the IMF, amid devaluations of the rupee and soaring inflation.

Barrick and Antofagasta say the proposed plant could produce 600,000 tons of copper and 250,000 ounces of gold a year.

The provincial government is also a sleeping partner in the Reko Diq project with a 25 per cent stake.

Mining in Balochistan is dominated by small companies focused primarily on marble and granite, experts say, which waste up to 80 per cent of potential because of poor extraction techniques.

Experts have called for more transparent policies to allow mining to flourish.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 15 Jul 2019 08:44

Vips wrote:Reqko Diq is largely a case of former chief justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Chaudhary trying to project himself a messiah and a crusader against corruption in pakistan. For personal glory he screwed paksitan and now they are in the hole for $6 Billion :rotfl:
This figure will further go up after paksitan will loose the appeal against it. The Porkis are so predictable if nothing else.

There was no crusading against corruption.

He wanted his son Arsalan Iftikhar to head the consortium, When powers that be objected, he canceled the contract. Arsalan Iftikhar was appointed under shady circumstances as vice-chairman of the Balochistan Investment Board and wanted to skim off of Reko Diq. One PML-N worthy even defended Arsalan's appointment as a reward for Iftikhar Chaudhary's many services to the nation. Arsalan was forced off of the project.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/733342/ano ... dal/?amp=1
Attracting widespread criticism, Arsalan was forced to resign within 12 days into the Reko Diq controversy. Defending Arsalan’s appointment, a PML-N stalwart, Mushahidullah Khan, touted this as a “reward” for Iftikhar Chaudhry’s “many services to the nation”. Was this a reward for services rendered to the nation or to the PML-N? Arsalan’s federally-inspired appointment was ‘Reko Diq-specific’.


Then Iftikhar Chaudhary saw lots of corruption and arbitrarily canceled the contract.

He wasnt trying to project anything, it was simply the case of butt hurt that he did not get a cut of the money. :(( :rotfl:

Arsalan himself is a shady character. He skimmed money off of Malik Riaz, Iftikhar Chaudhary took suo moto notice on media reports about his son and threatened journalists with jail! :shock: :D So much for the "anti corruption crusader" :mrgreen:

https://tribune.com.pk/story/730645/dr- ... -chairman/

His father, the chief justice, had taken a suo moto notice on media reports that had alleged that Dr Arsalan had received between Rs300 million and Rs400 million from property tycoon Malik Riaz to influence judicial proceedings.


There was no crusading against corruption. Reminds me of an old joke

Neta: Vote for me!! Everyone in power is stealing billions from the common man.
Abdul: so you want to get elected to root out corruption?
Neta: of course not!! Am I an idiot? I want a piece of it too!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby RamSuresh » 15 Jul 2019 14:30

Excellent. This I presume is a cash award.

Since Pakis cannot cough up the cash, they have to settle. Against an assured cash award, what would the company settle for. Perhaps ten times of that in future business profits, maybe more given the prospects for business in Pakistan.

About $ 50 bn down the tube for Pakis.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Jul 2019 18:00

RamSuresh wrote:Excellent. This I presume is a cash award.

Since Pakis cannot cough up the cash, they have to settle. Against an assured cash award, what would the company settle for. Perhaps ten times of that in future business profits, maybe more given the prospects for business in Pakistan.

About $ 50 bn down the tube for Pakis.
RamSuresh Ji:

Terroristan is already "Down the Toilet" so "Down the Tube" is no Big Deal!

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 15 Jul 2019 18:04

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,896.71 - Pt. Change : +160.48 - % Change : +0.41

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,08,012.92 – $ 1 / 68.6250

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,157.82 Billion


P S E

Current Index : 32,958.35 - Change : -714.14 - % Change : -2.17%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,690,114,039,605 - $ 1 / Tr Rs 159.50

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.94Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.45 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Neela » 16 Jul 2019 02:18

What Allah gives in one hand, he takes using the other.
His ways are indeed Djinnsterious.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 16 Jul 2019 09:36

Thought Reqko Diq was cancelled as per the establishments request to hand over the mine to the Chinese. Supreme Court Justice seems to have taken decision for "national interest". But since the case was dragged into legal dispute by the mining firm that handover never happened.

One example is when the tax on cellular data/voice recharges was suddenly reinstated by the new Chief Justice last year (after it was abolished by the one before) when establishment realized that Paki economy needs every bit of taxes for meeting revenue shortfall.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Jul 2019 18:57

State Bank raises benchmark interest rate to 13.25pc
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its main policy rate by 100 basis points on Tuesday to 13.25 per cent, citing increased inflationary pressures and a likely near-term rise in prices from higher utility costs.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Jul 2019 19:07

Economic growth to slip further in FY20: SBP - Salman Siddiqui
KARACHI: Pakistan’s economic growth is feared to further decelerate in current fiscal year 2019-20 from a nine-year low of 3.3% in the preceding year ended June 30, 2019 due to both internal and external factors, according to the central bank.
“The real GDP (gross domestic product) growth is likely to remain contained,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its third quarterly report on the state of Pakistan’s economy for fiscal year 2018-19 on Monday.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 16 Jul 2019 19:19

With exports tanking and all the major economic indices in the negative how come the GDP is showing growth? Even the consumption/services sector has slowed down in the last six months. Who are the Pakistanis trying to fool? The pindi statistics factory is working overtime. The GDP is actually in the negative territory.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Jul 2019 20:00

Vips wrote:With exports tanking and all the major economic indices in the negative how come the GDP is showing growth? Even the consumption/services sector has slowed down in the last six months. Who are the Pakistanis trying to fool? The pindi statistics factory is working overtime. The GDP is actually in the negative territory.
vips Ji:

Most of the Terroristani Economic Figures are based on the 2018-2019 Third Quarter Numbers. Their corresponding Fourth Quarter Figures i.e. 01 April 2019 to 30 June 2019 will be published in September.

Then we will know the actual figures!

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Jul 2019 20:31

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,131.04 - Pt. Change : +234.33 - % Change : +0.60

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,02,387.30 - $ 1 / I N R = 68.8075

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,165.81 Billion

PSE

Current Index : 32,972.02 – Change : 13.67 - % Change : 0.04%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,681,240,282,92 - 160.50

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.63 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.03 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Jul 2019 20:41

Rupee jumps to 161 ahead of monetary policy announcement - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: The rupee maintained downward drive for the seventh straight session ahead of the likely hike in key interest rate on Tuesday.

The rupee further weakened Rs1.44 to Rs161.30 to the US dollar in intra-day trade in the inter-bank market.

“The rupee came under pressure [against the US dollar] on forecast for a further pickup in inflation,” Taurus Securities’ analyst Mustafa Mustansir said while talking to The Express Tribune.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is strongly expected to hike key interest rate by 100 basis points to rein the future inflation in the afternoon.

100bps interest rate hike likely

Earlier in the past six sessions, the currency dropped a cumulative Rs2.54, or 1.61 per cent, since Monday last week, closing at Rs159.86 on Monday (yesterday).

The analyst noted the drop in the rupee was not unexpected since it had recovered Rs5-6 to around Rs157 in the prior week. “The rupee has lost on renewed buying in dollars at discounted price,” he said.

“The central bank may come into action again when rupee advances its march towards around Rs162-165,” he said, recalling the central bank came into action about two weeks ago when the rupee lost to around Rs165 in the inter-bank market.

Going forward, the rupee would remain under pressure due to scheduled repayment of foreign debt worth around $37-38 billion over the next couple of years.

“The pressure further mounted on rupee when an international court of the law imposed penalty worth $6 billion on Pakistan in Reko Diq case, a couple of days ago” Mustansir said.

He said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessment that the rupee would lose to Rs172 by 2020 was also playing on currency market participants’ minds despite IMF made clarification in this regard, he said.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 16 Jul 2019 22:34

Peregrine wrote:
Vips wrote:With exports tanking and all the major economic indices in the negative how come the GDP is showing growth? Even the consumption/services sector has slowed down in the last six months. Who are the Pakistanis trying to fool? The pindi statistics factory is working overtime. The GDP is actually in the negative territory.
vips Ji:

Most of the Terroristani Economic Figures are based on the 2018-2019 Third Quarter Numbers. Their corresponding Fourth Quarter Figures i.e. 01 April 2019 to 30 June 2019 will be published in September.

Then we will know the actual figures!

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Thank you Sirji. Waiting for September for the Porki figures to come. Just would like to see what spin they put on it. :mrgreen:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 16 Jul 2019 23:25

Pretty sure that their GDP has shrunk it $ terms big time. Their nominal per capita is likely to be circling the $1200 mark, even if their vastly understated population numbers (they haven't done a census in around 20 years) are taken at face value.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Jul 2019 02:03

Peregrine wrote:vips Ji:Most of the Terroristani Economic Figures are based on the 2018-2019 Third Quarter Numbers. Their corresponding Fourth Quarter Figures i.e. 01 April 2019 to 30 June 2019 will be published in September.
Then we will know the actual figures!
Vips wrote:Thank you Sirji. Waiting for September for the Porki figures to come. Just would like to see what spin they put on it. :mrgreen:
Bart S wrote:Pretty sure that their GDP has shrunk it $ terms big time. Their nominal per capita is likely to be circling the $1200 mark, even if their vastly understated population numbers (they haven't done a census in around 20 years) are taken at face value.
vips Ji & Bart Ji :

Terroristan – Economic Survey 2018-2019

PAGE : 331 / 503

In Terroristan Million Rupees

GDP {GVA + T - S} : 38,558,769

Gross National Product (mp) : 41,071,880

Population (in million) : 204.65

Per Capita Income(Rs) : 200,693

Per Capita Income(US $) : 1,497.3 – Conversion Rate – US$ 1 = Tr. Rs. 134.00!

US $ last day weighted avg. exchange rate in Rs - Q 1 :124.2 – Q 2 :138.8 - Q 3 :140.7

Thus I feel that the Conversion Rate for the Full Year will be around US$ 1 = T Rs 145

In addition, various Articles in the Terroristan Press are mentioning the Population as 220 Million which case the Per Capita Income would be about US$ 1287 or so.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 17 Jul 2019 02:39

Peregrine wrote:Thus I feel that the Conversion Rate for the Full Year will be around US$ 1 = T Rs 145

In addition, various Articles in the Terroristan Press are mentioning the Population as 220 Million which case the Per Capita Income would be about US$ 1287 or so.



Thanks for the detailed analysis.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby dinesha » 17 Jul 2019 14:18

SBP jacks up key interest rate by 100 points
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2014650/2- ... bps-13-25/

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 03:18

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,215.64 - Pt. Change : +84.60 - % Change : +0.22

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,13,806.42 - $ 1 / I N R : 68.9000

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,164.56 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,981.99 - Change : 9.97 - % Change : 0.03%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,688,713,755,422 - $ 1 / T R : 160.50

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 41.67 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.95 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby abhijitm » 18 Jul 2019 11:18

Vips wrote:With exports tanking and all the major economic indices in the negative how come the GDP is showing growth? Even the consumption/services sector has slowed down in the last six months. Who are the Pakistanis trying to fool? The pindi statistics factory is working overtime. The GDP is actually in the negative territory.

As per my understanding GDP and export are not completely linked. Now I don't know what items comprises of pak GDP bucket, but lets for the sake of simplicity assume their bucket has "wild asses" as only item that determines domestic production value. Also assume only Imran has asses that meets quality parameter. But he wasn't taking care of his asses since there was not much demand.

Say because rise in petrol price there is sudden surge in demand of Imran's ass. Looking at this Imran has increased production of his asses to double. And now everywhere you look you see a pakistani riding imran's wild ass. At the end of the year if you calculate their GDP has now been doubled.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 18 Jul 2019 12:06

Peregrine wrote:Economic growth to slip further in FY20: SBP - Salman Siddiqui
KARACHI: Pakistan’s economic growth is feared to further decelerate in current fiscal year 2019-20 from a nine-year low of 3.3% in the preceding year ended June 30, 2019 due to both internal and external factors, according to the central bank.
“The real GDP (gross domestic product) growth is likely to remain contained,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in its third quarterly report on the state of Pakistan’s economy for fiscal year 2018-19 on Monday.

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In 2018-19 their economy wasn't completely in the $*** hole. Assuming, 2.5% was their actual GDP growth, that was also their population growth, so their real growth was 0. Also, since the top 1 (or 0.1%) have a third of the GDP and grow at double the average rate , the GDP growth for the Aam Abdul is about 1.25% minus the population growth. Even with their `official figure' of 3.3%, the GDP growth per capita for over 90% of their pop was still negative for 2018-9. That was the good news. It will be worse this year - or as they so elegantly put it, `GDP will be contained' .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Deans » 18 Jul 2019 12:15

abhijitm wrote:As per my understanding GDP and export are not completely linked. Now I don't know what items comprises of pak GDP bucket, but lets for the sake of simplicity assume their bucket has "wild asses" as only item that determines domestic production value. Also assume only Imran has asses that meets quality parameter. But he wasn't taking care of his asses since there was not much demand.

Say because rise in petrol price there is sudden surge in demand of Imran's ass. Looking at this Imran has increased production of his asses to double. And now everywhere you look you see a pakistani riding imran's wild ass. At the end of the year if you calculate their GDP has now been doubled.


True. Also, agriculture is fairly similar to India. It does grow marginally each year. There are a lot of remittances from the gulf. Exports were roughly the same as 2017-8 etc. But to elaborate on your example - The trading at the Karachi stock exchange is mostly circular, with low volumes. Say a particular share is worth Rs 100. A general who owns a large stake in that company, will buy (or sell) 1 share for Rs 200. Now the value of the entire company has notionally doubled. General sahib gets a loan from a bank with his shares as collateral, to buy mansion in defence colony Lahore.(not that he's actually going to repay or lose his shares). The cost of the Mansion is part of the addition to the GDP of Pakistan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 18:36

Deans wrote:In 2018-19 their economy wasn't completely in the $*** hole. Assuming, 2.5% was their actual GDP growth, that was also their population growth, so their real growth was 0. Also, since the top 1 (or 0.1%) have a third of the GDP and grow at double the average rate , the GDP growth for the Aam Abdul is about 1.25% minus the population growth. Even with their `official figure' of 3.3%, the GDP growth per capita for over 90% of their pop was still negative for 2018-9. That was the good news. It will be worse this year - or as they so elegantly put it, `GDP will be contained' .
Deans Ji :

The Terroristani GDP will - IMHO - will be in a Bottom-less Pit:

The Term "You ain't seen nothing yet!" comes to mind.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 18:43

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,897.46 - Pt. Change : -318.18 - % Change : -0.81

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,46,534.89 – $ 1 / 69.0150

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. ( U S $.) : 2,136.72 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,309.54 – Change : -672.45 - % Change -2.08%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,561,792,096,326 - $ 1 / 160.1818

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.96 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.17 : 1

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 19:51

Exports and Imports of Goods & Services - (Billion US $ )

FY19 Provisional : US $ : -32.484 Billion

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 18 Jul 2019 20:57

Expected Remittances are $18-20 Billion. Negative balance of atleast $12 Billion plus with the scheduled payment of old debts (anywhere from $20-28 Billion), Porkistan is in the hole for $30-40 Billion :mrgreen:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 23:07

Foreign exchange: SBP reserves jump 12.9% to $8b - Our Correspondent

KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank jumped by a massive 12.9% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.

The increase came after Pakistan received first tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of $991.4 million on July 9.

Earlier, the reserves had spiralled downwards, falling below the $7-billion mark, which raised concern over Pakistan’s ability to meet its financing requirements. However, financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia helped shore up the foreign exchange reserves.

On July 12, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $8,001.3 million, up $917.7 million compared with $7,083.6 million in the previous week.

“After taking into account outflows relating to external debt and other official payments, the SBP reserves increased by $918 million during the week,” the statement added.

Overall, liquid foreign currency reserves, held by the country, including net reserves held by banks other than the SBP, stood at $15,249.2 million. Net reserves held by banks amounted to $7,247.9 million.

Previously, the reserves had jumped on account of $2.5 billion in inflows from China.

Over time, the declining reserves have forced the central bank to let the rupee depreciate massively, sparking concern about the country’s ability to finance a hefty import bill as well as meet debt obligations in coming months.

In April last year, the SBP’s reserves increased $593 million due to official inflows. A few months ago, the reserves surged due to official inflows including $622 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $106 million from the World Bank.

The SBP also received $350 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) earlier.

In January last year, the SBP made a $500-million loan repayment to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), China.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 18 Jul 2019 23:14

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby venug » 18 Jul 2019 23:22

The SBP also received $350 million under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) earlier

So this never dried up or this is renewed again? US always has been an active supporter of terrorism one away or another.


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