Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 03 Aug 2019 03:37

Inflation skyrockets to 68-month high at 10.3% - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Inflation skyrocketed to 10.3% in July – the highest in the past five and a half years – due to surge in prices of housing, transport and food items, which are the driving factors but are difficult to control by increasing interest rate.

Measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the average rate of increase in prices of 40 dozen items stood at 10.34% in July, reported the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday.

It was the highest inflation rate in the past 68 months. Last time in November 2013, the inflation had soared 10.9%. In July last year, the pace of inflation was 5.83%.

Increase in prices of petroleum products, food and beverages, utility charges, housing and devaluation of rupee against the US dollar fuelled inflation in the country. But these elements may not be neutralised by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through monetary tightening.

Inflation touches 56-month high in Feb

On the demand of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the SBP Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate by one percentage point to 13.25% with effect from July 17, 2019. In its statement, the central bank said the decision was taken while keeping in mind the upside inflationary pressures from exchange rate depreciation and likely increase in near-term inflation from the one-off impact of recent adjustments in utility prices and other measures in the budget.

The central bank expects average inflation to stay in the range of 11-12% in the current fiscal year, which is higher than the previous projection. Core inflation, measured by excluding food and energy goods from the basket, picked up slightly to 7.8% in July, according to the PBS. But this level of core inflation did not warrant 13.25% interest rate.

The central bank targets core inflation while taking decision on the monetary policy. After the recent increase in interest rate, the core inflation-adjusted interest rate has become positive by 5.45%, which is probably one of the highest in the world.

“Majority of the central banks keep the real interest rate positive by around 2%,” said Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a member of the government’s Economic Advisory Council.

Image

The government did not introduce the new base year to measure the rate of inflation as the PBS Governing Council had not yet approved it. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet did not give the go-ahead for introducing the new methodology and referred the matter to the governing council.

Pakistan has been using an 11-year-old base year to calculate the pace of inflation. There has been a significant change in spending patterns over the past 11 years but the government is still using the 2007-08 base year.

The CPI is calculated by reviewing prices only in urban centres. The PBS has promised that the new inflation basket will comprise 600 items including 244 in rural areas.

However, the PBS on Thursday released the inflation reading on the basis of old methodology.

There was an increase in prices of both food and non-food items. Of the 12 groups, the prices of five groups surged into double-digits in July over a year ago.

Inflation jumps to a five-year high of 9.41% in March

The maximum increase of 35.8% was recorded in the alcoholic beverages and tobacco group. Prices of the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel group rose 12.8% in July over a year ago.

Prices of the furnishing and household equipment group increased over 10%, transport group 14.7% and miscellaneous group 11.6% in July. Prices of the clothing and footwear group increased 7.4%.

Gas tariffs surged 142%, garlic prices 74.9%, onion 58.83%, pulse moong 47.6%, gold 36%, CNG 33.3%, sugar 30.7%, cars 25.54%, cigarettes 24.7%, pulse mash 22.3%, petrol 22.5%, potatoes 21%, pulse gram 12.3%, high-speed diesel 12.3%, beef 12%, electricity 11.33%, motorcycles 10.7%, wheat flour 10.4%, bread plain 9.33%, cement 10.1%, kerosene oil 9.9%
and rent 6.2%.

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kit
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 03 Aug 2019 03:42

What if pakistan does an "american" on china by supporting the Ughur terrorists.. they can extract freebies from china like forgiving their BRI investments :mrgreen: .. problem solved in one go !!..matter of fact the new found bonhomie with the americans can give them leverage over china .. interesting

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 03 Aug 2019 08:20

kit wrote:What if pakistan does an "american" on china by supporting the Ughur terrorists.. they can extract freebies from china like forgiving their BRI investments :mrgreen: .. problem solved in one go !!..matter of fact the new found bonhomie with the americans can give them leverage over china .. interesting


You can keep believing the crap put up by MSM, Pakistan is not supported because of Afgansitan, It is supported to contain India and be a pain in our back. Nobody wants another region which develops, thats how they run South America and Africa.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 03 Aug 2019 09:02

Aditya_V wrote:
kit wrote:What if pakistan does an "american" on china by supporting the Ughur terrorists.. they can extract freebies from china like forgiving their BRI investments :mrgreen: .. problem solved in one go !!..matter of fact the new found bonhomie with the americans can give them leverage over china .. interesting


You can keep believing the crap put up by MSM, Pakistan is not supported because of Afgansitan, It is supported to contain India and be a pain in our back. Nobody wants another region which develops, thats how they run South America and Africa.


Doesn’t make sense. Why did west allow China to develop? South Korea? Japan?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby CalvinH » 03 Aug 2019 09:07

kit wrote:What if pakistan does an "american" on china by supporting the Ughur terrorists.. they can extract freebies from china like forgiving their BRI investments :mrgreen: .. problem solved in one go !!..matter of fact the new found bonhomie with the americans can give them leverage over china .. interesting


Line to be taken by Paki Media anchors in their next desperate dream!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 03 Aug 2019 17:07

Make no mistake China is not India or US of A. It will publicly execute those Uighur terrorists, go after the ISI/Army handlers and for good measure activate the kill switch on its armaments sold/gifted to Porkistan. It can threaten giving the part of Kashmir it received from Pakistan to India.Pakis will come to their senses immediately and carry the vaseline jar to China.

Chinese are aware of the Paki snake mentality and would have planned for all kind of scenarios.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 04 Aug 2019 01:42

Vips wrote:Make no mistake China is not India or US of A. It will publicly execute those Uighur terrorists, go after the ISI/Army handlers and for good measure activate the kill switch on its armaments sold/gifted to Porkistan. It can threaten giving the part of Kashmir it received from Pakistan to India.Pakis will come to their senses immediately and carry the vaseline jar to China.

Chinese are aware of the Paki snake mentality and would have planned for all kind of scenarios.



i think the Chinese are just overestimated, they are just mercantile in their thought and behaviour. unless of course, you threaten their very existence !!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishirishi » 04 Aug 2019 07:09

Vips wrote:Make no mistake China is not India or US of A. It will publicly execute those Uighur terrorists, go after the ISI/Army handlers and for good measure activate the kill switch on its armaments sold/gifted to Porkistan. It can threaten giving the part of Kashmir it received from Pakistan to India.Pakis will come to their senses immediately and carry the vaseline jar to China.

Chinese are aware of the Paki snake mentality and would have planned for all kind of scenarios.


China has a stable government with lifetime rulers. They can do as they please. The Chinease knows how much and how much they can value to extract. See what they did in Shri Lanka and elsewere. They will start IMF tye of bailouts that will put TSP in their pocketcs. Force TSP to purchase Chinease goods, kill TSP industry and finally engineer a debt trap on them.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 06 Aug 2019 19:35

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,976.85 - Pt. Change : +277.01 - % Change : +0.75%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,39,59,857.97 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.9825

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,966.66 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,000.67 – Change : -180.13 - % Change : -0.58%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,279,229,795,754 - $ 1 / T R 159.9298

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.26 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.06 : 01


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 07 Aug 2019 01:21

IMF deal overshadows CPEC’s ML-I railway project - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The financing issue of the multibillion-dollar Mainline-I (ML-I) project of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remained unresolved due to ambiguity over taking new loans under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, said a top official on Monday.
The Ministry of Planning and Development did not have clarity about whether the country could sign a new loan deal with China for the construction of $8.5-billion ML-I project of the Ministry of Railways, said Planning Secretary Zafar Hasan in a parliamentary committee meeting.
There were also “flaws” in the ML-I framework agreement signed between China and Pakistan in May 2017, said Hasan while speaking during a meeting of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Planning and Development. The secretary’s statement would pour cold water on the ambitions of Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, who has lately involved Prime Minister Imran Khan to get the ML-I project cleared from the planning ministry.
13th IMF bailout may be another ‘successful failure’

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Arun.prabhu » 07 Aug 2019 05:38

Much more likely they’ll disappear the terrorists, hold their families and use those families as living organ donors for the health tourism industry as they do with Falun Gong members today.

Vips wrote:Make no mistake China is not India or US of A. It will publicly execute those Uighur terrorists, go after the ISI/Army handlers and for good measure activate the kill switch on its armaments sold/gifted to Porkistan. It can threaten giving the part of Kashmir it received from Pakistan to India.Pakis will come to their senses immediately and carry the vaseline jar to China.

Chinese are aware of the Paki snake mentality and would have planned for all kind of scenarios.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Arun.prabhu » 07 Aug 2019 05:41

China’s been having a hundred thousand or more spontaneous protests locally every year for the last decade. They are out of balance and have been running faster - spending more and more money to prop up their sham economy- for about that long now. China is not a rock fortress. It is a house of cards.

Rishirishi wrote:
Vips wrote:Make no mistake China is not India or US of A. It will publicly execute those Uighur terrorists, go after the ISI/Army handlers and for good measure activate the kill switch on its armaments sold/gifted to Porkistan. It can threaten giving the part of Kashmir it received from Pakistan to India.Pakis will come to their senses immediately and carry the vaseline jar to China.

Chinese are aware of the Paki snake mentality and would have planned for all kind of scenarios.


China has a stable government with lifetime rulers. They can do as they please. The Chinease knows how much and how much they can value to extract. See what they did in Shri Lanka and elsewere. They will start IMF tye of bailouts that will put TSP in their pocketcs. Force TSP to purchase Chinease goods, kill TSP industry and finally engineer a debt trap on them.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Aug 2019 02:27

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 36,690.50 - Pt. Change : -286.35 - % Change : -0.77%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,38,82,330.95 - $ 1 / I N R : 70.9750

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,955.95 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,277.45 – Change : -723.22 - % Change : -2.39%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,123,438,310,589 - $ 1 / T R : 158.90

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 38.54 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.79 : 1


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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 08 Aug 2019 17:44

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,327.36 - Pt. Change : +636.86 - % Change : +1.74

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,80,516.12 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.7350

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1990.60 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 29,737.98 – Change : -539.47 - % Change : -1.81%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,049,889,186,831 - $ 1 / T R = 158.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 38.12 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.22 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby abhijitm » 08 Aug 2019 23:09

What is happening with CPEC? Hajam Sethi said couple of days back most of the work on CPEC is paused.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Aug 2019 00:47


Anujan
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Anujan » 09 Aug 2019 01:02

The article is a laugh riot.

Makes it appear as though china surreptitiously invested money in Pakistan and now Pakistan has woken up to China's devious ways.

Pakistan went with a begging bowl to China. They got money thinking it's the same terms as Unkil (unkil cuts a check, Pakistan reneges on commitments). Cheenis are clever than that. Made Pakis pay interest and awarded it to cheeni companies. Greased the palms of a few jernails and netas.

Now Pakistan has woken up and is crying foul. Remember all the threats that if Unkil does not give money, Pakistan will take it from China? Now apparently Bajwa has signalled that Pakistan has natural affinity to west and will tilt westwards if china does not give concessions on CPEC repayment.

It's all a two sided blackmail game for Pakistan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Aug 2019 02:00

A new paper from a surprising place
Desperate for funding to fend off a financial crisis fuelled in part by mounting debt to China, Pakistan is playing a complicated game of poker that could hand Saudi Arabia a strategic victory in its bitter feud with Iran at the People’s Republic’s expense.


This from Nanyang U. !!!

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 09 Aug 2019 02:47

Anujan wrote:The article is a laugh riot.

Makes it appear as though china surreptitiously invested money in Pakistan and now Pakistan has woken up to China's devious ways.

Pakistan went with a begging bowl to China. They got money thinking it's the same terms as Unkil (unkil cuts a check, Pakistan reneges on commitments). Cheenis are clever than that. Made Pakis pay interest and awarded it to cheeni companies. Greased the palms of a few jernails and netas.

Now Pakistan has woken up and is crying foul. Remember all the threats that if Unkil does not give money, Pakistan will take it from China? Now apparently Bajwa has signalled that Pakistan has natural affinity to west and will tilt westwards if china does not give concessions on CPEC repayment.

It's all a two sided blackmail game for Pakistan.


I would really be surprised if the Chinese did not game their paki girl friends modus operandi !! .. those paki soldeirs guarding the chinks can do something else other than "guarding"

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 09 Aug 2019 05:04

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/pakistan-struggles-make-good-golden-opportunity-balochistan-tethyan-mining

In a remote and arid corner of southwestern Pakistan, Islamabad has found itself embroiled in a difficult battle: a multibillion-dollar dispute with a global mining company over one of the world's richest untapped deposits of copper and gold. In July, the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ordered Pakistan to pay $5.9 billion in damages to the Tethyan Copper Co., a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. and Chile's Antofagasta PLC. The ruling stems from a 2012 case that Tethyan lodged at the ICSID against Islamabad for failing to issue a license to mine gold and copper at the Reko Diq site.

The case draws attention to the rich resources of Balochistan, Pakistan's rugged southwestern frontier in which Reko Diq is located, as well as the tug of war between domestic Pakistani law and international arbitration in resolving investor disputes. But above all, the Reko Diq affair shines a light on Pakistan's numerous underground resources and its broader failure to exploit them — something that will continue to haunt the country if it is to fulfill Prime Minister Imran Khan's goal of rapidly ramping up foreign investment.

Pakistan possesses large deposits of gold, copper, chromite, bauxite, iron ore, rubies, emeralds, topaz, mineral salt and coal, many of which are — like Reko Diq — located in Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province. Accounting for nearly 40 percent of the country's landmass, Balochistan's 347,000-square-kilometer area (134,000 square miles) makes it equal in size to Germany. Its strategically located coastline faces vital shipping lanes in the Arabian Sea, including traffic destined for the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Balochistan is the site of a variety of projects as part of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which aims to create a direct overland route linking western China and the Arabian Sea through Balochistan's port of Gwadar. At the same time, however, Balochistan is also home to an insurgent movement that seeks independence from Pakistan on cultural and economic grounds; indeed, Chinese investment in Balochistan has exacerbated long-standing separatist grievances of foreign exploitation in the province.

The mine itself is located in Chagai, Pakistan's largest and westernmost district. According to Tethyan, Reko Diq contains 2.2 billion metric tons of mineable ore that could yield 200,000 metric tons of copper and 250,000 troy ounces of gold annually for over half a century. To extract the precious metals, the company must shovel, crush and grind the ore into a fine powder before converting it into a slurry concentrate for transport through a 682-kilometer underground pipeline to Gwadar. At the port, the company plans to dry the concentrate before loading it onto ships for smelting abroad.
Pakistan Misses a Golden Opportunity

But for all of its lucrative potential — $353 million annually at current gold and copper rates — the development of Reko Diq has stagnated because of the long-running legal battle that culminated in last month's $5.9 billion fine. A key element of the dispute centers on the validity of a decades-old pact called the Chagai Hills Exploration Joint Venture Agreement (CHEJVA). Signed in 1993 between the Balochistan Development Authority and BHP, the Australian firm that initially offered its capital and technical expertise to explore Reko Diq, CHEJVA later became the subject of a case at the Balochistan High Court. There, the petitioner argued that the agreement granted unfair advantages to BHP in the form of bigger blocks with more time for exploration than permitted under the law governing mining in the province. The Balochistan High Court ruled against the plea in 2006, declaring that the CHEJVA was valid.
This map showing the location of the Reko Diq mine within the rest of Pakistan.

In the meantime, Balochistan's provincial government begged to differ with the local high court. First, the government terminated the exploration agreement in 2009 and then, two years later, it refused to grant a mining license to BHP's successor, Tethyan. But because the company had already invested $220 million for exploration, it lodged cases at the ICSID and the International Chamber of Commerce in 2012, invoking international arbitration by circumventing the Supreme Court of Pakistan, which claimed that it — and not the ICSID — had jurisdiction over the case. Ultimately, the Supreme Court of Pakistan overturned the Balochistan High Court's verdict on appeal in 2013, ruling that the CHEJVA had been void from the beginning because of its violations of Pakistani law. Accordingly, the Supreme Court also ruled that Tethyan had no investor rights, including that of international arbitration, under the bilateral investment treaty between Pakistan and Australia (where Tethyan is incorporated). The ICSID, however, claimed jurisdiction in the case, ruling in favor of Tethyan in March 2017 before finally announcing last month the total fine, which includes a $4 billion penalty and $1.9 billion in interest charges.
Turning Promise Into Reality

The future of the mine will depend on how Tethyan and Pakistan choose to proceed. The mining company has offered to discuss a negotiated settlement with Islamabad — a gesture the government has welcomed — but it remains unclear whether the company will subsequently maintain its involvement in Reko Diq. Other mining companies from China and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest in the project, while the country's politically powerful military has noted it could help manage the project through its construction firm, the Frontier Works Organization.

The case of Reko Diq points to the fundamental problem in Pakistan's mining sector: the potential offered by the country's abundance of resources and the reality of its inability to efficiently exploit these minerals.

More broadly, the case of Reko Diq points to the fundamental problem in Pakistan's mining sector: the potential offered by the country's abundance of resources and the reality of its inability to efficiently exploit these minerals. If Pakistan wants to successfully exploit its mineral resources, it must attract overseas firms. But as the case of Reko Diq demonstrates, foreign investment requires effective investor dispute mechanisms — to say nothing of roads and other infrastructure to transport the resources from their often remote locations.

Khan, whose top domestic challenge is tackling the structural constraints that are hindering the economy, has ordered the formation of a committee to investigate the Reko Diq debacle and learn lessons for the future. What's more, the Planning Ministry has listed seven reform areas for mining pertaining to regulation, resource mapping, infrastructure, upgrading technology, access to finance and skills development. Pakistan's best-laid plans notwithstanding, the disagreement with Tethyan proves that developments taking place above ground will always affect the riches that lie in the earth below. And unless Islamabad can find a way to finally remove the obstacles to business, the Reko Diq affair appears to be one that it is likely to repeat.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Aug 2019 07:03

Anujan wrote:Now Pakistan has woken up and is crying foul. Remember all the threats that if Unkil does not give money, Pakistan will take it from China? Now apparently Bajwa has signalled that Pakistan has natural affinity to west and will tilt westwards if china does not give concessions on CPEC repayment.
It's all a two sided blackmail game for Pakistan.


Ah, so!!! That accounts for the Nanyang U. slam against Terroristan. I wondered about that.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Aug 2019 17:42

FBR recovers just $6m from OECD treasure trove - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Despite high priority of Prime Minister Imran Khan, the government could dispose of just 19 cases and recovered a paltry sum of Rs883 million ($6 million) out of total 57,450 cases worth $7.5 billion referred by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 09 Aug 2019 18:16

kit wrote:
Anujan wrote:The article is a laugh riot.

Makes it appear as though china surreptitiously invested money in Pakistan and now Pakistan has woken up to China's devious ways.

Pakistan went with a begging bowl to China. They got money thinking it's the same terms as Unkil (unkil cuts a check, Pakistan reneges on commitments). Cheenis are clever than that. Made Pakis pay interest and awarded it to cheeni companies. Greased the palms of a few jernails and netas.

Now Pakistan has woken up and is crying foul. Remember all the threats that if Unkil does not give money, Pakistan will take it from China? Now apparently Bajwa has signalled that Pakistan has natural affinity to west and will tilt westwards if china does not give concessions on CPEC repayment.

It's all a two sided blackmail game for Pakistan.


I would really be surprised if the Chinese did not game their paki girl friends modus operandi !! .. those paki soldeirs guarding the chinks can do something else other than "guarding"


The chinis know that all the paki soldiers including the generals are aleady infected with HIV after their vaseline jar overtime duty with the Saudis, Emiratis,Ammrica and Bartania and hence no good :D .

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby khan » 09 Aug 2019 18:25

With the Kashmir issue now “settled”, and now this new irritant of a large un-performing loan on President Elevens signature ego project, the China Pakistan relationship could be over, giving new meaning to the old Shakespearian adage “neither a lender nor a borrower be.”

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 09 Aug 2019 20:30

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,581.91 - Pt. Change : +254.55 - % Change : +0.68%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,41,68,835.21 - $ 1 = I N R 70.9100

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,998.14 Billion

Current Index : 29,429.07 – Change : -308.91 % Change : 1.05%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,020,150,269,138 - $ 1 = T R 158.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 37.93 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.68 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Aug 2019 20:49

You mean there is **ANOTHER*** Terrorist Train?

After Samjhauta, Rashid announces discontinuation of Thar Express train service with India

Thar Express connectsed Khokhrapar town in Thar to India's Munabao village located in the Rajasthan desert.


Strange. Why not Longewala to RYK?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Aug 2019 20:54

I think beebeesee and ceeenenn have run out of material. Most depressing: what eej the Ummah coming to? A fine opportunity like this, Fridin prayers over and not a bus burned! :((

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 10 Aug 2019 20:01

DEBT IS THE WEALTH OF THE TERRORISTANI ECONOMY! :rotfl:

Public debt skyrockets to Rs31.8tr in FY19 - Shahbaz Rana

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ISLAMABAD: In a dangerous development, the federal government added Rs7.6 trillion to public debt in the last fiscal year, which skyrocketed to Rs31.8 trillion by the end of June and it was equal to 71% of the total debt that the PML-N government had taken in its five-year term.

The addition to public debt in the previous fiscal year was also more than the total public debt that the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government added in five years (2008-2013), showed figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday. The PPP added Rs6 trillion to the debt in five years.

The central government’s total debt surged to Rs31.8 trillion with net addition of Rs7.6 trillion from July through June of the last fiscal year, reported the SBP. The central government’s debt increased at an alarming pace of 31.3% due to shortfall in tax collection, uncontrolled expenditures on debt servicing and defence, and depreciation of the currency.

Govt adds Rs3.9tr to public debt in 10 months of FY19

The liabilities that the PTI government added in the past one year were not part of the central government’s total debt of Rs31.8 trillion.

Out of the Rs7.6 trillion additional public debt, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan added Rs7.1 trillion from August 2018 to June 2019. PM Imran took the oath of office in August last year. The increase in public debt under his government was 28.8%.

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The increase in public debt in 11 months of the PTI government was equal to 66% of the debt that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) added in five years. the increase in the public debt in FY19 was the highest in the 72-year history of Pakistan. Pajiwa & Co. have been running wild with Looting Oodles of Dosh for the Terrorsitani Army from the Defence Budget!

PM Imran has been very critical of the economic policies followed by the PPP and PML-N governments and has set up the Debt Inquiry Commission to investigate the reasons behind the addition of Rs18 trillion to the debt stock in 10 years.

However, at the current pace, it seems that the PTI government may double the debt stock of the country within five years.

The accumulation of debt is a direct result of the gap between expenditures and revenues, which is widening due to the inelasticity of debt servicing and defence needs and the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) failure to enhance revenue collection. A steep currency depreciation also contributed to the central government’s debt.[color]

The FBR sustained a record Rs580-billion shortfall in tax revenues in the last fiscal year but the prime minister did not hold anybody accountable.

Public debt swells to Rs28.6tr by March-end

The overall increase in the central government’s debt was not in line with the budget deficit, which was expected to remain around Rs3.3 trillion in the last fiscal year.

The external debt of the central government increased 41.8% to slightly above Rs11 trillion in the last fiscal year. There was a net increase of Rs3.3 trillion in the external debt, largely due to currency depreciation and current account deficit financing.

In June 2018, the value of the dollar was equal to Rs121.54, which reached Rs163.1 by the end of June 2019, according to the central bank.

The Rs11-trillion external debt [color=#FF0000]does not include loans of $5 billion obtained from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These loans are the responsibility of the central bank.


The federal government’s total domestic debt increased to Rs20.7 trillion, an addition of Rs4.3 trillion or 26.2% in the last fiscal year.

The long-term debt stock more than doubled within a year, which increased from Rs7.5 trillion to Rs15.2 trillion by the end of June 2019.

As per expectations, the short-term debt dropped in anticipation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal, which imposed restriction on borrowing from the central bank.

In June last year, the short-term domestic debt stood at Rs8.9 trillion, which decreased to Rs5.5 trillion – a reduction of 38% or Rs3.4 trillion. The short-term debt reduction was replaced by long-term borrowing.

The federal government’s debt acquired through the sale of Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) to commercial banks decreased from Rs5.3 trillion to Rs4.9 trillion despite an overall increase in public debt.

The government’s total borrowing from the central bank fell from Rs3.6 trillion to just Rs571 billion.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 10 Aug 2019 20:49

^^^^ So public debt is 200 billion $, which is 80-100% of its GDP. Debt by itself isn't bad if the money is invested for the long-term betterment of people including in infrastructure, education, improving governance or cleaning up the environment. But we know how Paki money gets squandered on the elephant in the room.

Some more pressure on the military and they will piss away some more money. Mobilization isn't cheap, let's up the game just a little bit so they mobilize (but Unkil doesn't step in to bail them out).

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rohit_K » 10 Aug 2019 23:02

Three KP Universities Go Bankrupt Due to Financial Crisis
https://propakistani.pk/2019/08/10/thre ... al-crisis/
Three leading universities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have gone bankrupt and don’t have funds to pay the faculty and staff.

The University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Agriculture University and Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan are the universities that are reeling from the financial crisis in the education sector. Due to a lack of funds, the Higher Education Commission (HEC) has not released any grants for the varsities. The federal government has not released any supplementary funds for them either.

Last month, these universities took a loan from local banks to pay their employees. Now, with Eid just around the corner, the administration of these varsities is in a fix on how to pay salaries and pensions.“The universities don’t have any means to pay back the loans taken from different quarters,” said a reliable source. The varsities requested the government and HEC for a bailout, but the request was turned down.

The Vice-Chancellor of the Agriculture University Prof Dr. Jehan Bakht said that even after taking loans, they were only able to pay 50 percent salaries to the employees. Speaking about the reason behind this financial constraint, Dr. Jehan Bakht said that unnecessary hiring under previous governments is the key reason behind the financial crunch. He highlighted that several professors were retiring this year, and each professor is to be given Rs. 10 million at the time of his retirement under commutation, gratuity, and other payments. He urged the federal government to step up and increase the financial grant of the varsities. “If the financial support is not extended to the university at the earliest, it would be unable to function,” he added.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 12 Aug 2019 05:22

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Aug 2019 17:22

US cuts Pakistan’s aid by $440 million - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The United States has further cut Pakistan’s aid by $440 million, bringing down its commitments under Kerry Lugar Berman Act to just $4.1 billion, which is slightly over half of the total amount that Washington had promised to give nine years ago
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 16 Aug 2019 18:35

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,350.33 - Pt. Change : +38.80 - % Change : 0.10%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,75,322.21 – $ 1 / I N R 71.1950

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,977.01 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 28,764.63 – Change - -664.44 - % Change : -2.31%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 5,916,488,334,672 – $ 1 / T R : 159.50

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 37.09 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 53.30 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Aug 2019 17:57

With the PSX in freefall, stockbrokers quit business - Salman Siddiqui

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No one is ready to buy PSX membership for a mere Rs2.5 million today compared to Rs140-150 million several years ago, Ghaffar said.

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) – which has dropped to a five-year new low with six-seven years thin volumes in its third successive year of downfall on Friday – has now hit stockbrokers hard as well, as around a dozen of them have quit the business in recent months.

“Low volume has caused around a dozen stockbrokers to surrender their PSX’s membership in the past two to three months,” PSX Stockbrokers Association former general secretary Adil Ghaffar told The Express Tribune.

“Another dozens stockbrokers are anticipated to quit after banks gave them repeated calls to submit required margins against their cumulative bank borrowing worth around Rs50 billion,” he estimated.

The PSX’s benchmark KSE-100 Index dropped 2.31%, or 664.44 points, to a five-year new low at 28,764.63 points with around six-seven years thin volume of 53.42 million shares on Friday, according to JS Research Head of Equity Sales Syed Atif Zafar.

In the past three years, the index points have cut to half at present compared to all-time high near 53,000 points in May 2017. This has wiped out around $60 billion from the market.

“What has fallen from $100 billion to $41 billion in just two years? PSX,”Topline Securities CEO Muhammad Sohail said in a short message the other day.

The PSX management reported on Friday that Ashfaq Ashraf Securities has submitted a request letter to surrender his membership to the exchange on June 18, 2019, while the management has accepted MH Securities request for relinquishment of its membership.

Ghaffar elaborated that the consistent drop in volumes has made it almost impossible for dozens out of as many as 242 stockbrokers at PSX to continue running their offices. “Brokers earn revenue on trade of shares. Higher trade volumes make higher revenue while low volumes earn them low revenue,” he said.

“Continuing brokering business at PSX is no more feasible with mere 50 million shares a day,” he said. “Trade volume of around 500 million shares a day is a must to revive the stockbrokers’ offices,” he said.

He said there are some 18 big brokers at PSX whose share in everyday total revenue at PSX stands at around 80%, while remaining thin 20% revenue was keeping rest of the 225 stockbrokers alive.

No one is ready to buy PSX membership for a mere Rs2.5 million today compared to Rs140-150 million several years ago, he said.

The situation has taken place due to two major reasons; one that the apex regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), has overregulated the market. Secondly, a massive slowdown in Pakistan’s economy has made shares trading unattractive.

A 7.5 percentage points hike in key interest rate since January 2018 to eight-year high at 13.25% at present and a 32% rupee devaluation to 160 to the US dollar in fiscal year 2019 alone has multiplied the cost of doing business many times in the past two-three years. This has also made shares business unviable at PSX, he said.

He recalled that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet approved establishment of stock market support fund worth Rs20 billion in May, but failed to launch it due to limitations under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) tough conditioning.

He said this was high time for the government and SECP to soften regulations at PSX to allow the market to revive.

“SECP should at least undo overregulation at PSX immediately,” he said, adding many of the relevant regulations are done, but await SECP officials’ signatures to be implemented since long.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 17 Aug 2019 18:59

Stock market collapse means that modern capitalism has failed in Pak society. How do middle class Pakis secure their retirements? Oh wait, there are no middle class Pakis... The rest of them are either in government employment (therefore pensions, no need to save), or feudal landlords/industrialists, or have salted away their wealth overseas (whether wealth was earned overseas or not), or will depend on their brood to see them through. This is a watershed moment. When capitalism collapses, it means no more citizen investment in industry. No investment means no growth. No growth in private enterprise with a population growing at 2.x% means the house of cards will come tumbling down. No CPEC will be able to save it, and the broke government won't be able to throw in a stimulus package either.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 17 Aug 2019 19:22

In another setback, US cuts $440 million financial aid to Pakistan – ANI

HIGHLIGHTS

- In another jolt to Pakistan, the US slashed the aid to the cash-strapped nation by nearly US $440 million

- The US apprised Pakistan PM I'm ran Khan about its decision to cut aid three weeks before his planned visit to Washington


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Im the Dim supplicating – with hands held in the form of Prayers to God – Trump for MONEY

WASHINGTON: In another jolt to Pakistan, the United States slashed the aid to the cash-strapped nation by nearly US $440 million, bringing down its commitment to just US $4.1 billion.

The aid was disbursed under Pakistan Enhanced Partnership Agreement (PEPA) 2010, reported Express Tribune.

The US apprised Pakistan Prime Minister I'm ran Khan about its decision to cut aid three weeks before his planned visit to Washington.

Notably, the PEPA was signed in September 2010 to make operational the Kerry Lugar Berman (KLB) Act that was passed by the US Congress in October 2009 to disburse US $7.5 billion to Pakistan over a period of 5 years.

Earlier the aid under the KLB stood at nearly US $4.5 billion. Following the cut, the aid will come down to US $4.1 billion.

Last year in September, the United States' military cancelled the financial aid worth US $300 million to Pakistan due to the growing concerns regarding Islamabad's failure to tackle terrorism.

In January that year, Pentagon had cut US $1 billion worth financial aid to Pakistan, with defense secretary James Mattis and other officials citing Islamabad's failure to crack down on the Haqqani terror outfit as the reason behind it, Fox News reported.

During his meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister I'm ran Khan, last month, US President Donald Trump strongly criticised Islamabad for its behaviour which led to the cancellation of US aid amounting to US $1.3 billion to the country.

"We were paying US $1.3 billion to Pakistan as aid, for many years. The problem was Pakistan was not doing anything for us. They were really subversive. They were going against us. I ended that about a year and a half ago, the US $1.3 billion (aid), " Trump said during his meeting with Khan

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gautam_2 » 18 Aug 2019 22:07

aam abduls squealing under inflation and raining choicest of insults on Dimran
(18:20 onwards)


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gyan » 18 Aug 2019 22:23

Pakistan gets roughly USD 3 Billion per annum from USA under various Civil, Military heads of Aid, support, reimbursement. It seems all that is gone.

Though I wonder if IMF, World Bank, ADB etc will step in?

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 19 Aug 2019 01:51

Govt likely to introduce dollar-based saving scheme - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: In a move that could further weaken people’s trust in local currency, the federal government may launch a new US dollar-based saving scheme, which will entitled people to claim profits and encash saving instruments at future exchange rates.
Depositors will be protected from capital losses caused by any further devaluation of the rupee that has already shed its value by more than 50 per cent in last one-and-a half-year.
In return, the proponents of the scheme – who is said to be the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor – think that this will encourage people to save money in rupees that will lessen pressure on dollar buying.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby neeraj » 19 Aug 2019 01:59

Google shows Pak PM Imran Khan on searching ‘bhikari’
Pakistan’s attempts on convincing the international community to accept their vote on Kashmir has turned the nation into a laughing stock as Google’s algorithm displays Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s image on searching the term ‘bhikari’ (beggar) :rotfl: .

Only a week earlier, an onion seller :mrgreen: took a dig at PM Khan for cutting ties with India leaving the nation’s poor citizens with no accessible stock that was being imported from India, DNA reports.

“Just 3-4 days are left for Eid and the market looks so dull. We depend on India for vegetables and onion, which is so essential to cook food on Eid. I am sure, the price of onion and all will increase further. What does Imran Khan want us to eat? Grass?”, the seller had commented. :(( :((

Neighboring nation Pakistan depends on India for imports of essential food items, such as onion, tomatoes and chemicals. Cutting business ties with India would surely end up burning holes in the nation’s poor population’s population.

It may be noted that India had also revoked the MFN (most favoured nation) status to Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack in February.


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