pankajs wrote:
Chinese, by throwing their hat into the ring, have understood the same. There is a new status quo in J&K where Indian portion is off the table and what remains on the table is PORK and that threatens CPEC. The Chinese weren't simply obliging an aly or reiterating their position on the Aksi Chin/LAC. They could have let the Bakis make the statement after the UNSC consultation and made it look like India vs Bakistan affair but they didn't!
See my note on Gilgit/Baltistan. This are my thoughts.
It is to discuss the future of Shaksgam and Gilgit/Baltistan.
fUK wanted Gilgit/Baltistan to be part of Bakistan as part of Great Game, using that it can keep watch on FSU and China and control the politics in central asia, particularly afghanistan.
Of course with fUK going down Bakistan, US is interested in Gilgit/Baltistan. FSU (i.e., Russia) needs to have a control. China wants Gilgit/Baltistan under its wing so that it can do OBOR via Bakistan. It already has shaksgam valley.
1. In UNSC, China pressed the needle to see what are the contours of great-game-III.
Think it this way, the Baki-Cheeni axis-of-evil wants to control the Shakshgam Valley + Gilgit/Baltistan. This is their corridor into Afghanistan-CAR.
2. US is already in Afghanistan. It does not want Russia coming into Afghanistan. It does not want China to come into Afghanistan.
Baki-Cheeni control of Shakshgam Valley+Gilgit/Baltistan enables China to enter into CAR.
3. By raising cashmere in UNSC, China now knows what it is arraigned against.
China stands isolated. At the same time it knows that fUK can be made as a fence sitter in its position if not an active ally.
Gains for India., Russia has thrown its ring with India. This is not a small thing. France has already identified India as its strategic ally. US will be transactional.
And remember, the elephant in the room - that is, India is also watching this evolving situation keenly. It is a big elephant in the room and we at BRF shortchange our own elephant! We think that our ambassadors, or HM or PMO or EAM or defence minister etc are not as smart as umrikan and thus get positively surprised. (We actually created a negative-sobriquet for our raksha-mantri !!!)
The above sets the context for India's statements. Importantly:
1. Rajnath Singh'ji clearly mentioned that the NFU is being re-thought. In fact, his statement should be construed as made ipso-facto. That is,
India has already rethought the NFU and has signalled that it will go for First-Use FU (pun un-intended) policy.
Imdin's rants' should be seen in the above context.
2. A clear signal was sent out:
Stop Terror, Start Talks
When we talk Kashmir, we are going to talk about Pakistan Occupied Residual Kashmir (PORK)
This is significant. There is no reference to UNSC.
There is only talk about how peacefully Pakistan can return Gilgit/Baltistan/Neelum Valley etc to India. If Bakistan do any hankie-pankie, India has the FU option.
And in this light, one should see the diplomacy run being done by the PM. Bhutan is ensured that it stays in India's orbit. And then a visit to UAE. India supports UAE which is supporting a faction in Yemen which is being opposed by S.A. This connection needs to be discussed.
Point is, India has signalled to the world that it is going to take care of the Bakistan experiment. It has evolved certain lines of action. It needs to ensure that its allies in MW (gelf), NE, West, SEA, Indo-Pacific are aligned to those lines of action. Including nuking bakis so that they remain nuke-nude.
I will not be surprised if Bakistan experiment comes to an end by 2024.
Now there are no restrictions in 10 districts of Jammu with ongoing relaxation at Poonch, Banihal, Kishtwar and Bhaderwah towns for the day.
