Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 20 Aug 2019 06:18

PTI govt wary as economic situation may aggravate - Dr Fahd Rehman

LAHORE: The last fiscal year closed with one of the lowest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates in a decade along with moderate inflation of 7.3%.

The current account deficit went down from 6.3% in fiscal year 2017-18 to 4.8% in 2018-19. Despite a massive depreciation of the rupee, the export growth remained negative, though imports were compressed by around 7%.

The new government embarked slowly on the stabilisation route to avoid political backlash. Although it treaded the path gradually, the axe fell on the development budget.

Axing this budget brought down tax revenue for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) since the government spends first and then collects revenue. That is the reason the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends that the government should step up its development spending under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

However, the new government is quite conservative in its approach to loosening the purse strings on development expenditure. The accountability drive is also keeping civil servants at bay. This cautious approach will aggravate the economic situation going forward.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has adopted an aggressive stance in raising the policy rate in quick successions. Now the policy rate is 13.25%, which will create problems for the dominant borrower ie the government. Under the EFF, the government has started borrowing from commercial banks, which will further increase the cost of borrowing.

In addition, the banks will start parking their liquidity in treasury bills and bonds. This type of borrowing pattern started in 2008 since banks became risk averse owing to adverse economic circumstances.

Since 2008, the successive governments have remained under the IMF programmes and they have resorted to commercial bank borrowing, which not only increased their cost of borrowing, but also reduced the fiscal space. Furthermore, this also shows that the government has been serving the financial interest since banks do not invest in real sectors of the economy. As a result, the financial sector progresses at the cost of real sector. Firms operating in the real sector of the economy resort to borrowing when they expect the economy to improve in future. Owing to high interest rates, the firms become cautious in their investment decisions. For them, the high cost of borrowing will make many projects unprofitable.

Banks also become wary of the fact that many firms will not be able to make interest payments and there are chances of default on repayment of principal amounts.

The SBP has been trying to fight inflation through demand compression, which is not a prudent approach. In a developing economy such as Pakistan, the efficacy of monetary instruments can be called into question since most of the economic activities take place in the informal sector. In the informal sector, cash transactions are normal. Though the government is trying hard to encourage banking transactions, it will be difficult to implement it in letter and spirit.

The SBP has increased the policy rate to a level, which is not justifiable at the moment. Though the headline inflation is in double digits, the core inflation is still around 8%.

It may be argued that headline inflation will further increase in the coming months and even the impact of imported inflation will be felt in future due to around 52% depreciation of the rupee in the last 20 months. Despite all these, the SBP could have moved gradually to increase the policy rate.

In short, the economy is in the grip of macroeconomic stabilisation. The government is trying to impose fiscal and financial discipline, which could have been negotiated with the IMF. Now the real test for the government is to manage the popular sentiment.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 20 Aug 2019 10:54

Downhill Skiing slope being prepared ?

Yawn - Patriotism vs commercial interests

New Delhi’s actions in India-held Kashmir are despicable. There can be no two opinions about it.
Short of war, it behoves Pakistan to take every action possible to show solidarity with struggling Kashmiris. :rotfl:

But does it follow that those actions are practical?

Bilateral trade is heavily tilted in favour of India with our imports five times more than our exports. And that is without accounting for informal trade that is estimated to be about twice that of formal trade. On the face of it, it appears that the ban on trade with India makes as much economic sense as political sense, especially given Pakistan’s beleaguered trade balance.


“The tops of many bottles, such as paint or medicine, have a polymer-based material, which is on the list of items not importable from India. Practically speaking, however, almost all that is available in the market is sourced from India,” said a trader on condition of anonymity.

“Indian companies have set up shop in Dubai, which they show as Chinese. When an order is booked and processed, its paper work indicates that the product’s origin is China. It’s a fairly open secret all along the chain. And this is not the only product, there are many others on the banned list that are imported in a similar manner,” he said.

Another importer explained the use of switch bill of lading in importing from India through Dubai. “It is only paper,” he said candidly. “The original bill of lading is for some party in Dubai. Through a switch bill of lading, the consignment shifts to our name with the country of origin no longer India.”

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 21 Aug 2019 03:17

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 21 Aug 2019 11:20

Lawhore-via-Slamabad

Punjab govt increases Metro Bus fares by 50%

Punjab government has increased the fares of Metro Bus Service in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad and in Lahore.

Punjab Transport Secretary Asad Gilani said in a notification that he was pleased to announce increase in the Metro Bus fares. :mrgreen:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Aug 2019 01:43

1. Fully Posted on the Indian Economy Thread

Markets are braced for a global downturn

The signals from bonds, currencies and commodities are increasingly alarming

2. India – Terroristan Stock Exchanges

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,060.37 - Pt. Change : -267.64 - % Change : -0.72%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,38,84,069.39 - $ 1 / I N R 71.5800

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,939.66 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,972.75 – Change : 553.53 - % Change : 1.79%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,238,259,352,965 - $ 1 / T R : 158.90

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.26 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.41 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 22 Aug 2019 02:16

APG reviews Pakistan's 3rd Mutual Evaluation Report on anti-money laundering measures-Tahir Sherani

The Asia-Pacific Group on Money Laundering (APG) reviewed Pakistan's third Mutual Evaluation Report (MER) that detailed measures taken by the government to counter terror-financing and money laundering from February 2018 to October 2018, a press release by the finance ministry said on Wednesday.

The MER was adopted by the APG — the regional affiliate of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) — in its 22nd annual meeting that is being held in Canberra, Australia and will conclude on August 23. The Pakistani delegation was led by State Bank of Pakistan Governor Reza Baqir.

Pakistan is taking measures to exit the 'grey list' of FATF — where it was placed in August 2018 — by the mid of October.

While this meeting is not directly linked to Pakistan’s performance on its highest-level commitments with FATF on money laundering and terror-financing, its assessment report can indirectly impact the country’s position to move out of the 'grey list'.

According to the press statement by the finance ministry, the MER "identifies a number of areas where further actions are required to strengthen the AML/CFT framework". "The report does not cover the areas in which Government of Pakistan has made substantial progress since October 2018," the statement emphasised.

The Pakistani delegation briefed APG on the measures taken in "recent times" for improving its AML/CFT framework and the steps that were being taken to ensure successful implementation of the financial watchdog's action plan.

It also "welcomed engagement with the international community in its efforts to countering terrorism and money laundering" during the discussions held at the meeting.

Pakistan also briefed other member countries separately in bilateral meetings. Furthermore, the Financial Monitoring Unit signed a memorandum of understanding with the China Anti Money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Centre (CAMLMAC) for the exchange of financial intelligence, the statement said.

A senior government official had told Dawn before the meeting that APG was currently conducting a five-year mutual evaluation of Pakistan’s progress on upgrading its systems in all areas of financial and insurance services and sectors.

Pakistan has submitted its compliance report on the 27-point action plan committed with FATF to the APG, which is reviewing its compliance on about seven areas mostly relating to financial and insurance services and facilities as part of an ongoing five-year review cycle. These areas cover safeguards against money laundering and terror financing by banned outfits and non-government entities through banking and non-banking jurisdictions, capital markets, corporate and non-corporate sectors like chartered accountancy, financial advisory services, cost and management accountancy firms, jewellers and similar related services.

The official had explained that the five-year review by the APG, which has been under way for nearly two years, would conclude on August 23. As part of this process, he added, the countries were given future targets in view of changing technologies, practices and latest techniques and scopes.

This will be followed by another round of mutual evaluations by the APG starting September 5 in Bangkok (Thailand) that would become a key basis of Pakistan’s final review by the FATF at its plenary and working group meetings scheduled for October 13-18 in Paris.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Aug 2019 03:41

PTI govt set to waive Rs208b dues of industrialists
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government is set to write off a minimum Rs208 billion in favour of a handful of industrialists with the stroke of a pen after it and the previous two governments failed to recover dues on account of gas infrastructure development cess (GIDC).
It is seen as an injustice to the people, mainly poor farmers, who have already paid the amount but the industrialists have refused to deposit it in the national exchequer and have moved courts. It will also put Punjab-based industrialists at a disadvantage who have already settled some of their liabilities.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 23 Aug 2019 09:23

Inaction on terror funding could see Pakistan in black list.

Pakistan faces an uphill battle at the Asia-Pacific Group (APG) for inaction on terrorism finance and money laundering and its poor compliance may keep it on an extended grey list or, as some members said, tip it over into the black list that will bring stiffer restrictions.

Pakistan failed on 10 of the 11 parameters it was assessed on. APG is the regional affiliate of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and its decisions have a large bearing on the organisation’s decisions on Pakistan.

At the annual general meeting in Canberra, APG is currently assessing Pakistan’s Mutual Evaluation Report on strengthening anti-money laundering and countering financing terrorism safeguards. APG’s decision will be made public on Friday.

Reza Baqir, governor of Pakistan’s State Bank, is leading a 10-member team to defend Pakistan’s actions. Thus far, Pakistan’s performance on regulation and supervision of its financial sectors has been assessed as poor.

An official statement by the Pakistan finance ministry, however, says “The report does not cover areas in which government of Pakistan has made substantial progress since October 2018”.

A thumbs down at Canberra is not good news for Pakistan as it again puts the spotlight on its inability and even sponsorship of terrorism at a time when it is waging a desperate diplomatic battle against the defanging of J&K’s special status.

At the APG meetings, things don’t look good for Pakistan. It has said it has improved systems and actions on 50 parameters, but the claims have not not yet stood up to scrutiny. Pakistan has also got failing grades in 32 of 40 compliance parameters.

Pakistan has till September to take action on 27 items before the FATF plenary in October. According to reports, Pakistan submitted its compliance report on FATF to the APG as well, which is being assessed. But Pakistan’s non-compliance may make it difficult for APG and FATF to pull Islamabad out of hot water. Despite having “all weather” ally China as the chair of FATF, Pakistan faces a bleak future on terror funding.

China will certainly try to prevent Pakistan’s blacklisting in FATF as will Turkey and Saudi Arabia. US is more likely to use the grey list as leverage to get Pakistan to behave more responsibly — both in respect to the Afghan peace process and on terror against India.

Now check this program below from 27:55 onwards where the expert is claiming that we had a good presentation at the Canberra meeting and we will have good results from it.

The whole country including their so called intellectuals live in a make believe world and all are on a diet of hashish and charas :rotfl:



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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 23 Aug 2019 10:41

From 1 naan, they might now have to make do with half a naan..

Yawn -
Millers jack up flour prices yet again

Amid higher wheat stocks, flour millers in Sindh hiked prices again on Thursday by up to Rs2 per kg.

They made the first price increase on Aug 15 (third day of Eid ul Azha) by Rs1.5 per kg in flour no 2.5 and Rs2 per kg in maida (super fine flour) and fine flour, respectively.

Flour mills have raised prices by at around 7-8 times since April, citing soaring wheat rates in the open market.

Like past practice, the previous and fresh price hikes in flour varieties went unnoticed both at federal, provincial and local government levels, further burdening consumers already impacted by food inflation of other items.

Pakistan Flour Mills Association (Pema) Sindh Chapter’s Chairman Mohammad Jawed Yousuf attributed the hike to increase in 100kg wheat flour bag to Rs3,900 in open market, from Rs3,625 ahead of Eid ul Azha and Rs3,000 in April.

He said on official papers, Sindh government has over 840,000 tonnes of wheat but in reality its stocks stand around 500,000 tonnes.

The government has also not procured wheat from growers this year.


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby habal » 23 Aug 2019 12:07

blacklisted by FATF - Breaking News

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 23 Aug 2019 12:28

habal wrote:blacklisted by FATF - Breaking News


Actually not quite sure, but one thing is certain that Immy is rediscovering the fifty shades of grey.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A Nandy » 23 Aug 2019 12:29


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Yogi_G » 23 Aug 2019 12:42

What does "enhanced blacklist" mean? Glad that the jihadi nation is blacklisted.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Parasu » 23 Aug 2019 15:32

Its the Asia Pacific group of FATF which has done this. Now it will go into the October meet of FATF. If Paksitan gets blacklisted there on the basis of APG report of non compliance, then good.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 23 Aug 2019 18:09

I am looking forward to the randi rona by the assorted 'anal'yst and 'experts' on all the paki channels once the FATF news is confirmed officially in Porkistan. One thing is sure there would be a unanimous conclusion and agreement by all the participants there that this is all a conspiracy by yahud and hanud :rotfl:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 23 Aug 2019 20:37

Yogi_G wrote:What does "enhanced blacklist" mean? Glad that the jihadi nation is blacklisted.


It is the lowest rung listing maintained by the Asia Pacific Group.Check from 0:35 onwards:


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Aug 2019 22:07

BLACKLISTING OF TERRORISTAN BY FATF CAUSING P S E INDEX A FALL OF 534.44 POINTS :rotfl:

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current 36,701.16: - Pt. Change : +228.23 - % Change : +0.63

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,37,92,486.60 - $ 1 / I N R : 71.6725

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,924.38

P S E

Current Index : 31,350.01 – Change : -534.44 - % Change : -1.7%

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,339,995,313,439 - S 1 / T R : 158.90

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.90 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 48.23 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Aug 2019 23:08


Vips
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 23 Aug 2019 23:39

Commercial Borrowing. Wallah!!!! would be really interesting to see at what rate the loan was advanced by Credit Suisse, IDB and Dubai Bank. :mrgreen:

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 24 Aug 2019 05:55

With APG blacklisting it for terror financing, going gets tough for pak at FATF.

Pakistan was placed in the “enhanced expedited follow-up list” by the Asia-Pacific Group for its failure to act credibly against terror financing and
money laundering. This is tantamount to being blacklisted, and the APG’s conclusion will have an impact on Pakistan’s prospects at the FATF in
October.


Pakistan was found to be non-compliant on 32 parameters out of 40. On 11 effectiveness parameters, Pakistan was found to be “low” on 10.

Pakistan had sent a high level team under the governor of its central bank, to make its case at the Canberra plenary, but given that its actions on the ground did not match its promises it failed to convince the group. :rotfl: In fact, the discussions on Pakistan carried on for over seven hours across two days, indicating that the APG were giving Pakistan a detailed hearing.

Pakistan will find the going tough even in the coming FATF plenary, because the findings of the APG will have an impact.

Technically, sources said, even the FATF does not have a “blacklist”, which is a term for general usage. In FATF, the legal jargon for a blacklist is a “public statement”, while a grey list is called a “compliance document.

In the APG, the lowest level of action is called a “regular follow-up”. The next level is the “enhanced follow-up” but the highest level watchlist is called the “enhanced expedited follow-up” which is the level Pakistan is on.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby habal » 24 Aug 2019 09:43

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2040367/2- ... ear/?amp=1

APG places Pakistan on enhanced monitoring list for at least one year
By shahbaz rana
Aug.23,2019

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Thakur_B » 24 Aug 2019 10:10

Noob Poochh,

Why didn't taller than peepee, deeper than musharraf-hole fraand not stop FATF blacklisting in APAC meeting ?

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Mollick.R » 24 Aug 2019 12:39

Thakur_B wrote:Noob Poochh,

Why didn't taller than peepee, deeper than musharraf-hole fraand not stop FATF blacklisting in APAC meeting ?


reason is (as posted by habal sir in Terroristan dhaga) & i quote

"Actually US, Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong are all members of APG. So basically that is 3/4th of world economy right there.

FATF - APG is just european countries. http://www.fatf-gafi.org/countries/#APG"

It appears that Lizard is not even a member of the group.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Aug 2019 17:45

OYEZ! OYEZ!! OYEZ!!!

Debt, liabilities mount to Rs40.2 trillion - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: For the first time in 19 years, Pakistan’s debt and liabilities have dangerously exceeded the size of its economy and peaked to a record Rs40.2 trillion at the end of last fiscal year – an addition of a whopping Rs10.3 trillion in a single year.
The Rs40.2 trillion total debt and liabilities were equal to 104.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.
It was for the first time since the year 2000 when Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities were higher than the size of its economy.
In 2000, the country’s total debt and liabilities were equal to 106% of the GDP.
Total debt and liabilities also include the public sector enterprises’ (PSEs) debt, non-governmental external debt and inter-company external debt from direct investors abroad.

Meantime back at the Ranch :

Pakistan's Debt and Liabilities-Summary Provisional - (In Billion Rupees)

GDP (current market price) : 38,558.8 Billion

US Dollar, last day average exchange rates :163.0546

GDP (current market price) : U S $ 236.4478 Billion

Population : Figures : 220 Million – 2017

Per Capita G D P : U S $ 1,074.9

GUIDANCE : Indian G D P 2019-2020 : US$ 2,743.86 Billion - Population 1.3 Billion

Per Capita G D P : U S D 2,110.0

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 24 Aug 2019 20:58

See you kafir we have had a situation before where our total outstanding loans as a % of GDP was higher then it is today. If we can control the situation then we can do it again. Bottom line - we can borrow even more so, allah ke naam pe de de baba ..... :((

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby yensoy » 25 Aug 2019 10:37

Year 2000, that is soon after the nukular tests and following sanctions that Pak was in this situation. Then something magical happened in 2001 and the money spigots opened, rescuing the god given land from bankruptcy. Wonder what's going to happen in 2020? If nothing extraordinary happens, then situation is only going to get worse for the Pakis.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Aug 2019 17:00

Fiscal slippages in first year to haunt Imran Khan's govt - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan has been alerted about the grave implications of fiscal slippages in his first year in power, which created an additional hole of nearly Rs700 billion or 1.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that has to be bridged to stick to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commitments.

The premier was informed on Saturday that the primary budget deficit -calculated after excluding interest payments, in the last fiscal year remained at 3.6% of the GDP or Rs1.4 trillion, sources in the Ministry of Finance told The Express Tribune after the meeting.

There were Rs610 billion or 1.5% of the GDP higher than the one assumed to agree on this fiscal year’s primary deficit target.

Due to the increase in a nominal size of the GDP, the overall impact of the slippage will be around Rs700 billion that has to be covered, the sources said.

This is exclusive of any adverse impact of a possible shortfall in tax revenues and excess expenditures during the course of the fiscal year.

While realising the grave fiscal situation, the sources said, the premier directed his economic team to focus on “small wins” that could provide some breathing space to the government.

The PM was also informed that the overall budget deficit remained at Rs3.43 trillion or 8.9% of the GDP, which was 1.7% of the GDP or Rs650 billion higher than earlier projected by the Ministry of Finance.

During the current fiscal year 2019-20, Pakistan had agreed with the IMF to bring down the primary deficit to only 0.6% of the GDP or Rs255 billion. This had been agreed on the assumption that the primary deficit in the previous fiscal year would be just Rs700 billion.

The only option in front of the government is either to cut its development budget or levy more taxes to stick to the 0.6% of the GDP primary deficit target.

The economic managers on Saturday also suggested PM Imran end the fear factor in the country that has held back the business community and bureaucracy from taking decisions and severely undermined the economic activities.

The message was conveyed to the premier at his Bani Gala residence in a meeting attended by key federal cabinet members and provincial finance ministers of Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, sources told The Express Tribune.

The meeting that lasted for about three hours discussed in detail the prevailing economic distress sentiment. The required change in policy for taxation and privatisation to enhance exports, special economic zones and ease of doing business issues were discussed during the meeting.

The PM was again urged to move quickly to amend the National Accountability Ordinance to limit the role of the anti-corruption watchdog that has emerged as the biggest stumbling block in the revival of the economic activities, the sources said.

However, the five-minute video statement of Finance Adviser Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, which the PM’s secretariat released after the meeting, did not mention the NAB issue. The video confirmed that the government was working on an alternative economic plan and there was also a realisation of slow economic decision-making.

“We are moving forward and preparing a roadmap for the whole economy,” Shaikh said who over two months had signed a 39-month Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) with the International Monetary Fund.

The adviser did not explain the rationale of preparing a new economic roadmap in the presence of 39-month IMF-dictated MEFP.

Shaikh said that the new roadmap would encompass all important decisions like enhancing agriculture productivity, building big dams or giving the comprehensive package to special economic zones for attracting foreign investment.

It was decided that the economic team would hold a weekly meeting with the prime minister under the roadmap where all important suggestions would be presented before him so that “active decision making is ensured”, Sheikh said.

Sheikh hinted at reducing the prices of petroleum products from the next month due to a reduction in crude oil prices in the international market.

He said that it was also decided that the government would sit again with the business community and resolve their all outstanding issues.

“We want to ensure that the business community actually gets electricity and gas subsidies, have access to loans and the tax burdened is lessened on the industry,” Sheikh said.

The adviser said that the premier assessed the performance of the Ministry of Revenue, planning, commerce, and industry. “The exercise was aimed at ensuring benefits of the budgetary allocations for the people,” he said. “The prime minister has directed that all big projects should be continuously monitored to achieve their objectives.”

PM Imran was told that the government would target high impact projects for their completion in the current fiscal year by ensuring the full release of budget and monitoring of physical activities. However, the Ministry of Finance in the past had linked the release with the FBR’s ability to achieve the target.

“We want improvement in an economic situation to give confidence to the business community,” Shaikh said, adding that the “stock market capitalization increased 9% last week and exports after a long time increased in July. The current account deficit has drastically reduced”.

But the sources said that it was underlined during the meeting that these improvements could lose steam if the fear factor was not adequately addressed.

Federal Minister for Law and Justice, Dr Farogh Naseem, on Wednesday, said that amendments were being proposed to rationalize the NAB law and excluding the private person from the jurisdiction of the anti-graft buster.

In the last cabinet meeting, PM’s Special Assistant Nadeem Afzal Chan had also complained that the economic activities were drastically reduced due to the fear factor and the bureaucracy was also not cooperating.

Economic activities both in formal and informal sectors have come to a grinding halt coupled with skyrocketing inflation that hit a 10-year peak last month.

Large-scale manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 10 years by 3.6%.

Business activities have slowed down due to new taxation measures, drive against the informal economy and squeeze on the banking sector due to implementation of the Financial Action Task Force’s action plan.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 26 Aug 2019 07:43



5:00 Onwards , Panelists are saying Pakistan Stock Exchange is manipulated. Asking the aam abduls and ayeshas not to invest. Large Scale manufacturing has gone down across all sectors but the stock/share prices of companies representing all these sectors is increasing :rotfl:

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Aug 2019 17:53

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,494.12 - Pt. Change : +792.96 - % Change : +2.16

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,30,385.70 - $ 1 / I N R - 71.9525

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,950.00 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,520.60 – Change : -829.42 - % Change : -2.72% High : 31,350.02 – Low :30,410.54

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,227,103,575,550 - $ 1 / 157.90

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.75 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.06 : 1


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A_Gupta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 26 Aug 2019 21:14

Was thinking about how to quantify how big a hole Pakistan has dug for itself. Some numbers that came to mind that might help are:

1. How much of Pakistani wealth is in PSE listed companies?
1a. How concentrated is stock ownership in Pakistan?
2. How much are Pakistani loans/aid from abroad as a fraction to total inflows? (remittances + export earnings + FDI)
3. What is the import component of Pakistani defense expenditure?

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Aug 2019 21:39

A_Gupta wrote:Was thinking about how to quantify how big a hole Pakistan has dug for itself. Some numbers that came to mind that might help are:

1. How much of Pakistani wealth is in PSE listed companies?
1a. How concentrated is stock ownership in Pakistan?
2. How much are Pakistani loans/aid from abroad as a fraction to total inflows? (remittances + export earnings + FDI)
3. What is the import component of Pakistani defense expenditure?
A_Gupta Ji : Here is my bit :

SECP allows foreign investors higher shareholding in PSX - Salman Siddiqui - March 3, 2019
KARACHI: The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), the apex regulator, has given the go-ahead for increasing the shareholding of foreign portfolio investors in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).
Foreign individual and institutional investors may now buy, hold or trade PSX stocks up to maximum 20% of outstanding shares estimated at around 800 million.
Earlier, the regulator had limited the shareholding of foreign portfolio investors in the PSX at 10%.
The maximum number of shares available for trade at the PSX trading platform is also equivalent to 20% of the issued paid-up capital.
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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Aug 2019 22:35

Cotton woes and Indian import ban - Ahmad Fraz Khan

As the cotton crop enters a crucial phase of its life cycle, it raises assorted concerns for the planners and the textile industry. Both are keeping their fingers crossed as the weather turns anti-cotton — long spells of hot and humid weather, worsened by floods, causing an increase in pest pressure. And September, normally considered a make or break month, is about to start.

The situation in Punjab, which contributes over 70 per cent of the crop, is more worrisome.

The government has set a production target of 15 million bales this year with a goal of 25m bales by 2025. Therefore, Punjab has been told to jack up its production to 10m bales from 6.8m bales last year — a 32pc increase.

The current year represents the first year in achieving this colossal target. And the government is already failing.

Punjab started on the wrong foot this year. It had planned to sow cotton over 5.3m acres — a herculean task in itself given the competition from rice and sugarcane that have elbowed into cotton-growing areas. Punjab claims to have planted 5m acres of cotton crop however the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco), based on its satellite imagery, contends only 4.6m acres were sown.

‘The Indian ban on imports means cotton may have to be sourced from the US, increasing freight costs by up to four times and causing lags of 10-12 weeks’

Punjab considers its figures more credible since they are based on surveys of individual villages and farmers. Nonetheless, the controversy is there.

Punjab also lists a few other positive factors that may help hike up its production and compensate for the acreage loss. On average, the plant population has increased by 1,000 plants per acre in the province.

Early Kharif water shortage, which was more than 50pc for Sindh and 40-45pc during the entire season last year, has dropped to 10-15pc this year. The Indus River System Authority depleted Mangla Dam thrice this year to help sow cotton and is now struggling to fill the lake. Furthermore, germination was better and the crop, by and large, has escaped early pest attacks.

However, as the weather turns anti-crop, the Punjab authorities estimate that they would be able to increase cotton crop cultivation to 7m bales at best, a 2pc increase over the 6.8m bales cultivated last year.

The calculations are based on two factors: weather and pesticides quality. River Sutlej runs through the core cotton belt and if it overflows, it spells trouble for the crop. The Indian side has warned of 200,000 cusecs being released at the entry point (just South of Lahore), which could recede to 80,000 cusecs by the time it reaches the southern part of the province where cotton is cultivated.

“Eighty thousand cusecs will be too much for the belt,” says Zafar Hayat, farmer and cotton crop in-charge of the Farmers Associates Pakistan. The area could withstand an inflow of 40,000 cusecs but at 80,000 cusecs, massive areas along the banks will be inundated and humidified.

And River Sutlej is not the only river that poses this threat; others are also overflowing and turning the water-weather cycle humid. With temperatures during the day hovering around 40 degrees Celsius, and 30°C at night, pest pressure will increase further, Mr Hayat fears.

Media reports suggest that jassid and whitefly have already attacked the crop in South Punjab and are joined by thrips and pink bollworm. Though these pests have not crossed the economic threshold level yet, they are lurking close to it.

“People have lost faith in pesticides and are reluctant to use them because of quality issues,” says Naeem Hotiana, a farmer from South Punjab. The jurisdictional fights between federal and provincial agencies, legal confusion and monitoring problems have together forced farmers to lose faith in pesticides.

Despite the cases against pesticides companies, there are over 70 stay orders by courts that allow them to continue selling their products. Therefore, farmers are not ready to invest much on pesticides, Mr Hotiana explains.

If Pakistan again ends up at 11m bales like last year, where would the textile industry get the required cotton to fill the demand and supply gap? Last year, it imported around 1.2m bales (for $334m) from India. This year, imports from India are banned and the industry is worried.

“Indian imports helped the industry on two accounts — the time lag and freight costs,” says Kamran Arshad, owner of Ghazi Fabrics. Import from India was a two-week affair. Now, imports will most probably be sourced from the United States which is a 10-12 weeks process.

This means maintaining stocks for 10 additional weeks at a massive mark-up cost and paying about three to four times higher freight charges. With the textile industry already facing a significant liquidity crunch, this additional cost will be hard to bear.

“Not everyone is in a position to import from the United States and that too under the current high duty regime. The industry is waiting for a compensatory package to neutralise the impact, assuming such a package is offered”.

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Bart S
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Bart S » 26 Aug 2019 23:10

https://twitter.com/TajinderBagga/statu ... 4687926273

Even overseas Pakistanis cannot spare more that $2 per paid protester :rotfl:

A_Gupta
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby A_Gupta » 26 Aug 2019 23:25

Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2018 says Pakistan's total wealth is estimated at USD 422 billion.
So the Pakistan stock market comprises roughly 10% of Pakistani wealth (using Peregrine's numbers from above)

Just to set a benchmark, Indian wealth is estimated at USD 5,972 billion. So the Indian stock market comprises roughly 30% of Indian wealth.

From 2017 to 2018, the change in wealth per adult for Pakistan was -10.7%. The change in market capitalization was -19.7%.

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Aug 2019 17:39

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,641.27 - Pt. Change : +147.15 - % Change : +0.39

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,41,48,411.79 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.6125

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,975.69 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,584.85 – Change : 64.25 - % Change : 0.21% - High : 30,641.84 - Low : 29,952.73

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,225,906,220,845 - $ 1 / T R = 157.80

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S.$.) : 39.45 Billion

B S E : : P S E : : 50.08 : 1


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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 27 Aug 2019 19:40

Under Imran Khan, Pakistan forced to defend Muzaffarabad : Bilawal Bhutto

HIGHLIGHTS

- Earlier this month, defence minister Rajnath Singh had said if talks were held with Pakistan in future, they would be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir

- The opposition parties in Pakistan have accused the Imran Khan-led federal government of ‘selling out’ Kashmair under an international conspiracy


NEW DELHI: In a video clip circulating on social media, Pakistan opposition leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari can be seen launching a scathing attack on Prime Minister Imran Khan for his government's "failed" strategy on Kashmir.

In the clip, the PPP leader says that if earlier Islamabad's policy was about taking Srinagar, now, under the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan, it has been forced to device ways to defend Muzaffarabad (capital of Pakistan- occupied Kashmir).

"Earlier, what used to be our policy on Kashmir? Earlier, Pakistan's policy on Kashmir was that how will we take Srinagar. Now, under the government of Imran Khan, we have been forced to think how will we save Muzaffarabad," Bhutto said.

Earlier this month, defence minister Rajnath Singh had said if talks were held with Pakistan in future, they would be only on Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK).

"Why should there be talks? On what issues there would be talks? Talks with Pakistan would begin only after it stops patronising terrorism. If talks begin, it would now only be on the PoK and no other issue, " Rajnath Singh said.

The opposition parties in Pakistan have accused the Imran Khan-led federal government of 'selling out' Kashmir under an international conspiracy.

According to Dawn, an English daily in Pakistan, leaders from different political parties came together earlier this month to denounce the government's stand on Kashmir after India revoked its special status on August 5.

"The present situation gives rise to fears that it might have been decided in Prime Minister Imran Khan's meeting with US President Donald Trump last month that Pakistan will keep silent if India decides to change the fate of Kashmir, " one of the opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman said.

Rehman said the people of Pakistan and Kashmir are the victims of an international conspiracy and the government is a part of it.

India revoked Article 370 and 35 A of the Constitution, which gave special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir and split it into two union territories on August 5.

In Video : Bilawal Bhutto Zardari attacks PM Imran Khan , says 'Pakistan has been forced to defend Muzaffarabad'

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Nikhil T
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watc

Postby Nikhil T » 28 Aug 2019 12:09

Highest ever fiscal deficit in year 1 of Dimran

ISLAMABAD: The first year of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government concluded with a record 8.9 per cent fiscal deficit — perhaps the highest in the country’s history — as revenues plummeted while expenditures remained at the same level they were at the previous year, when expressed as a percentage of GDP. In absolute terms, however, expenditures broke previous records while revenues were stagnant.

As a result, the fiscal deficit, which is the difference between revenues and exp­enditures of the federal government, came in at a record 8.9pc of GDP. As late as June 2019 the government had announced that it intended to keep the deficit at 7.1pc of GDP, whereas its target at the start of the year was set at 4.9pc.
:shock: :shock: :shock:

Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Aug 2019 15:21

Lack of funds keeps Chashma power units closed - Zafar Bhutta
ISLAMABAD: A parliamentary panel was informed on Tuesday that two units each of Chashma and Mangla hydroelectric power projects had been closed since 2016 and 2017 respectively whereas the government was not releasing funds for importing parts for the Chashma plant.
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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Aug 2019 17:44

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,451.84 - Pt. Change : -189.43 - % Change : -0.50

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,40,57,552.06 - $ 1 / I N R : 71.6950

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,960.74 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 30,637.71 – Change : 52.86 - % Change : 0.17% - High : 31,112.82 - Low : 30,551.91

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 6,229,576,061,380 - $ 1 / T R : 157.5523

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.54 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.59 : 1


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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Aug 2019 21:58

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 37,068.93 - Pt. Change : -382.91 - % Change : -1.02

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,39,83,324.95 - $ 1 / I N R : 72.0025

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 1,942.06 Billion

Current Index : 30,158.96 – Change : -478.75 - % Change : -1.59% - High : 30,808.44 - Low : 30,111.56

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,229,576,061,380 - $ 1 / T R : 157.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 39.50 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.17 : 1


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