2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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sanjayc
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjayc » 01 Sep 2019 13:02

The NRC Has Been Sabotaged, Bangladeshi Infiltrators Obtain Legitimacy While Assamese Are Hurting

The exercise, devised by the Congress government in 1986, appears to have been designed such that the Bangladeshi infiltrator obtains legitimacy while the native Assamese is left rudderless.
With Muslim-dominated parties such as the AIDUF and AIMIM ‘thanking’ the Supreme Court for the exercise, questions are now being raised over the NRC’s intent.


The fears about the final National Register of Citizens (NRC) for Assam being deeply flawed (read this) have ultimately come true. The exclusion of a mere 19.06 lakh names from the register has, as was expected, caused deep distress and disappointment amongst many in Assam.

That’s because a large majority of those excluded from the final NRC are Hindus and of them, most are Bengali Hindus. Among the excluded are people belonging to indigenous groups of Assam and over one lakh Gorkhas.

The original purpose of the NRC updation exercise, which was mandated by the Supreme Court (Justice Ranjan Gogoi ordered it) in 2013, was to prepare a registry of genuine Indian citizens.

It was thus expected that the names of all Bangladeshis who had sneaked into Assam illegally over the decades would be excluded from the list. And since most of those who had infiltrated into Assam from Bangladesh are Muslims, it was assumed that a large majority of the excluded would be Muslims from the neighbouring country.

However, it has now turned out that a majority of those excluded from the list are Hindus. Preliminary scanning of the final NRC and tallying of it with the draft NRC published in July last year reveals that more than 13 lakh of the 19 lakh excluded from the final NRC are Hindus, and nearly 11 lakh are Bengali Hindus.

One lakh of the excluded are Gorkhas and another one lakh are Assamese Hindus or indigenous people of the state. Less than 6 lakh Muslims have been excluded from the final NRC.

But it is common knowledge that most of the Bangladeshi infiltrators into Assam are Muslims.

So how is it that most of those excluded from the final NRC are Hindus?

It is apparent now that the entire NRC updation process was flawed. But were the inherent flaws in the updation process deliberate and the process designed to fail?

The answer to this vital question will lie in who stands to gain the most from the flawed NRC and how the procedure (for updation) was laid down.

Muslim Groups Are Thrilled

It appears that the illegal Muslim immigrant from Bangladesh has gained the most from the final and flawed NRC because the names of most of these non-Indians have been included in the register.

This is apparent from the statement by the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) spokesperson Aminul Islam.

The AIUDF, seen as a party protecting the interests of mainly Bangladeshi-origin residents of Assam, has ‘thanked’ the Supreme Court for the final NRC. It also said that the final NRC has, once and for all, ‘resolved’ the vexed foreigners’ issue in Assam.

AIMIM chief Asauddin Owaisi echoed the AIUDF sentiment and said the “myth of the illegal migrant” has been ‘busted’.

Both the AIUDF and AIMIM are obviously happy that the overwhelming majority of the people who did not figure in the final NRC are not Muslims as was widely expected.

Congress Government In Assam Designed The Updation

The deeply flawed final NRC also puts the focus back on the history of the entire process. The updation of the NRC was mandated by the Assam Accord of 1986, but successive governments (mostly of the Congress, but also of the AGP) kept putting it off.

Ultimately, Justice Ranjan Gogoi (he was yet to become the Chief Justice then) ordered the updation exercise on a batch of petitions filed by citizens’ groups in 2013.

The then Congress government in Assam started preparing for the exercise and finalising the rules and procedures for the exercise.

The entire process — what documents had to be submitted for inclusion of names in the NRC, how they would be verified and cross-checked et al — was laid down by the then Congress government in Assam headed by Tarun Gogoi.

It was, of course, vetted by the Supreme Court.

But did the Congress deliberately leave loopholes?

Congress’ Vote-Bank Politics Responsible?

It must be remembered here that successive Congress regimes in Assam deliberately encouraged infiltration of Muslims from Bangladesh into Assam and used them as vote-banks to cling on to power in the state for decades.

The Congress has been winning elections in Assam largely due to the support of the Bangladeshi infiltrators. Thus, the Congress would obviously have a very big stake in sheltering this community in the hope that it would come back to power in Assam with the help of this vote bank.

It must also be remembered that it was because of the Congress’ vote bank politics and the political protection it accorded to illegal Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh that the latter could easily get Indian documents like ration cards, voter ID cards and passports to lay claim to Indian citizenship.

The Tarun Gogoi government was fully aware that most of the Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam had obtained those documents through bribery and fraud. And hence, say some BJP leaders, the rules and procedures for NRC updation were deliberately rigged and loopholes created to help the illegal Muslims immigrants.

It is also a fact that while Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh have been very particular about obtaining documents like fake birth certificates or fake school certificates that enabled their obtaining voter ID cards and ration cards, Hindus fleeing persecution in Bangladesh have been very negligent on this count.

Neither has the state machinery in Assam been as indulgent towards the persecuted Hindus coming from Bangladesh as it has been towards the Muslim infiltrator.

The Tarun Gogoi government knew this very well, and allegedly designed the rules and procedures governing the updation exercise in a manner that would help the Bangladeshi infiltrators.

The Congress has always denied the well-known presence of lakhs of Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam. A flawed NRC with names of almost all Bangladeshi Muslims included in it suits the Congress very well indeed.

It can cite the final NRC to reiterate its stand that the BJP and other parties have been raising a ‘false bogey’ about the presence of Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam.

Estimates Of Presence Of Non-Indians

In 2016, the then Union Minister of State for Home, Kiren Rijiju, had said that there were two crore Bangladeshi nationals residing illegally in India. Even Sriprakash Jaiswal, a minister in the UPA-1 regime, had said in 2004 that 50 lakh infiltrators from Bangladesh were present in Assam.

In 1977, then Union Home Minister (in the Janata Party government) had told Parliament that there were one crore Bangladeshi infiltrators in India.

All these figures given out by the Ministers were based on ground realities and estimates prepared by different government agencies.

So how did the final NRC not reflect these figures? Assam Public Works (APW), a citizens’ body that was the primary petitioner on whose plea the Supreme Court ordered that the NRC for Assam be updated, said that the mechanism for updating the NRC — deciding which documents could be submitted, how to verify the documents, deciding on legacy data and tracing old documents etc — was flawed and ill-designed.

“We will approach the Supreme Court once again for re-verification of the final NRC. We expected the number of excluded to be much higher. It should have been at least 60 lakh. Our calculations based on studying census figures, electoral rolls and other government data and extrapolating all the data reveals that more than 60 lakh Bangladeshi infiltrators have settled down in Assam after the cut-off date of 24 March 1971,” said APW president Aabhijeet Sarma.

The APW will also plead for a social audit of the entire updation process, including the cost of more than Rs 1,200 crore incurred in the entire exercise.

“We will also seek a directive from the apex court on third-party verification of the software and technical platforms used in the updation process. We believe these were also flawed,” said Sarma.

BJP Government Barred From Taking Corrective Action

The BJP, which came to power in Assam in 2016, soon realised that the NRC updation exercise was not progressing in a proper manner. The BJP realised that the entire process had many flaws and many government officials entrusted with this exercise were not being diligent enough.

Many cases of officials taking bribes from Bangladeshi Muslims to turn a blind eye to fake and forged documents they submitted, or favouring the infiltrators, also came to light.

Unfortunately, when the state government started scrutinising the exercise and attempted to correct the flaws, the Supreme Court ordered it to keep away from the exercise.

The Supreme Court also ordered the NRC coordinator, Prateek Hajela, not to share any data or details about the exercise with the state government or any other authority or establishment without the consent of the apex court.

Realising that the final NRC would be a flawed one and would include names of lakhs of Bangladeshi infiltrators, the Union and state governments made a last-minute plea to the Supreme Court to order a sample re-verification of names included in the draft NRC (published last year).

The plea was for re-verification of antecedents of 20 per cent of the names included in the draft NRC from districts along the Indo-Bangladesh border (which have a high presence of Bangladeshis) and 10 per cent of the names from the remaining districts.

But the apex court turned down this plea after Hajela told the court that he had undertaken re-verification of 27 per cent of the names included in the draft NRC.

Thus, the Congress’ alleged game-plan of rigging the updation exercise appears to have succeeded.

A highly flawed NRC with names of Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators included in it and names of Hindu refugees from Bangladesh (who are not a vote bank for the Congress) excluded from it has been published.

What is unnerving is that, according to some reports, the claims of many of the nine lakh-odd Muslims (whose names have not figured in the final NRC) had been rejected on minor grounds like errors in the spellings of their names, parents’ names or places of residence.

That means that when they appeal before the Foreigners’ Tribunals, there is a very high chance of their appeals being upheld.

And then, their names, too, will be included in the final NRC.

The final NRC has come as a huge letdown for Assam and its indigenous people. The state has paid a high price for the entire exercise. Apart from the Rs 1,200-crore spent on the exercise, 52,000 government officials were involved in the updation process.

Many development works suffered as most of these officials had to spend time almost exclusively on the NRC updation work instead of their official work.

And at the end of it all, it is the native Assamese who has been shortchanged.


https://swarajyamag.com/politics/long-r ... re-hurting

panduranghari
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby panduranghari » 01 Sep 2019 13:35

habal wrote:Indian SPR is 2 weeks always.


Not yet. Once phase 1 is complete, it will be 10 days. It will be by 2025.

Phase 2, will take it to 2 weeks.

Prem Kumar
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Sep 2019 13:55

1) The SC has acted, once again, in the most disgraceful manner and compromised Indian's internal security
2) The BJP, once again, sounds like a whiner & a loser. They were in power at the Centre and the State. They could have raised a huge ruckus about how flawed the NRC was. But they discarded their mandate and were servile in front of the SC. Now, Hindus and indigenous Assamese pay the price

Sooner or later, the SC has to be taken to the mat, if Hinduism is to survive in this country.

Disgusting!

Krita
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Krita » 01 Sep 2019 14:16

Prem Kumar wrote:1) The SC has acted, once again, in the most disgraceful manner and compromised Indian's internal security
2) The BJP, once again, sounds like a whiner & a loser. They were in power at the Centre and the State. They could have raised a huge ruckus about how flawed the NRC was. But they discarded their mandate and were servile in front of the SC. Now, Hindus and indigenous Assamese pay the price

Sooner or later, the SC has to be taken to the mat, if Hinduism is to survive in this country.

Disgusting!


I had read a survey couple of years back about the most corrupt profession and Lawyers topped the list. BJP has enough political capital to reform the Judiciary in India. The judiciary was always corrupt & entitled from the pre-independence era, congress never reformed it since it suited its agenda except for Indira Ghandy's emergency era. Judiciary and bureaucracy is a "Dharti pe bhoj", sooner the BJP gets is act together and show some steel to to tame morons like gogoi and chandrchud the better.

Prem Kumar
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Sep 2019 14:26

I really hope so. Hope to see the Art 370 avatar of Modi rather than his Parliament-bowing, Constitution-kissing version!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby EswarPrakash » 01 Sep 2019 15:34

Prem Kumar wrote:I really hope so. Hope to see the Art 370 avatar of Modi rather than his Parliament-bowing, Constitution-kissing version!


IMHO this is a very important part of his persona and people's perception of him. I strongly believe this love for our constitution is ingrained in him. This primarily means that people will trust his judgement when A-370 is abrogated via constitutional methods and when left-libtards and SJWs screech "death of constitution" - no one believe them.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 01 Sep 2019 18:19

I have had this thought for months so let me put it down here now that we are back to the Bangladeshi question.

1. How many folks here believe in Global warming?
2. IF you believe in global warming ask yourself what will its impact be on Bangladesh?
3. IF Bangladesh is submerged fully or partially where will that leave the Bangladeshis? Will they collectively drown or migrate?
4. Assuming Bangladesh is fully submerged and the Bangladeshis do not perish in the process where do folks think will these Bangladeshis end up?

As I had commented a long-time back, we are worrying about 2 crore while not grasping the larger issue. My initial thought was based on the "Akhand Bharat" rhetoric that was once in fashion may be still is.

Better pray that Global warming is a sham and banish the thought of Akhand Bharat. I am deliberately talking the maximalist position to draw our collective attention to the larger question.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 01 Sep 2019 18:46

The BJP is pretending to be a virgin. The entire process were done under their supervision and they had no clue that the NRC process was being sabotaged. Most govt officials doing the updation process are likely to be Congressi henchmen as they have deep penetration in governance. Now that they have egg on their face best thing to do will be to revisit the entire NRC updation process. Forget the SC. It is an executive decision. Reverify the documents of each individual in Assam NRC outside the state of Assam. Re-check the whole process to find out what loopholes were used. Or use better metric and redo the whole process.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 19:00

I am as right wing BJP supporter as they come but I have always maintained that NRC is not the correct way and should not be done. The only way forward is:
a. To give amnesty to the ones already in (they are miniscule compared to our total population and while still harmful, not lethal in the overall scheme of things compared to alternatives) and
b. Stop any further influx (will be lethal if not done urgently)
We had a long discussion is now defunct GDF (viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6783#p1644519) and I all throughout maintained that the result of the NRC exercise will be exactly like Pakistani Census which satisfies no party because all the parties have separate nefarious agendas than what are being stated.

My pragmatism were pooh poohed and now, the result published yesterday just proves my point.

1. Out of 19 lakh, 13+ lakh are Hindu. Since life does not stop, these guys will continue to need govt service like birth, school, degree, marriage, property ownership etc certificates and every petty govt official will harass them for bribe in each of the steps since they have been turned stateless. No point wishing otherwise, we all know that officials are same all over India irrespective of state/ethnicity and this is exactly what is going to happen. Congratulations on alienating so many of fellow indics. History will judge all of us based on our action further and remember, what goes around, comes around.
2. Malsi politicians are laughing. While vote bank is not as deterministic as before, it still exists. They could not ask for a better bargain. Giving up less than 6 lakh of their own to remove 13+ lakh possible opponent, what not to love?
3. Assamese are not happy either. The whole exercise, while done in the garb of nationalistic fervor, was actually a parochial exercise (please see the * section below) to remove as many non-Assamese as possible from Assam and getting only 19 lakh out of a crore+ non-Assamese is obviously not going to make them happy, hence already starting grumbling of faulty NRC

The sad part is any statistician worth their salt could have predicted this. Given our overall record keeping standard, the data will not be clean and no way to get clean data/clarification from the past; that is given. When the data is not clean, any objective criteria or group of criteria can not reduce false positives and false negatives simultaneously. In other words, if you keep a strict criteria, lot of genuine candidates will be outside. You want to ensure no genuine candidate suffers by keeping criteria lenient, lot of frauds will get through. The only way to overcome this is via subjective measures which will not be acceptable in any legal process as subjectivity goes against the fundamental rights given in our constitution. This is scientifically proven, going against this is as futile as going against science. But to pander to parochial politics, the same were ushered through SC via an Assamese CJI and obviously it didn't provide the magic bullet solution.

Now it is easy to give respite at least to these 13+ lakh Hindu stateless outside NRC. Just enact the Citizenship Amendment Bill. Unlike RJB, it is not judicial matter. TT and 370 has shown that BJP can navigate the parliamentary system easily. So, there is really no excuse not to enact CAB within the next parliamentary session to give early respite to these 13 lakh hindus. (Just to understand the severity of the figure, the number of KPs who became homeless were 1 lakh and even though they became homeless, they were fully franchised with Indian state with all other rights protected).

* However Assamese have been the biggest opponent of CAB and the moment CAB is tabled, you will find Assam starting violent protest proving my point that the whole exercise was a parochial process to remove non Assamese from their state. I hope the august members of this forum raises above and demands CAB to be enacted within the next parliament session to give solace to these 13 lakh hindus. Even better, take the pragmatic approach and demands an end of NRC giveing amnesty to all. Trust me, the illegals are way to organised to ensure fool proof documentation (please see ** section below); there is no way to identify them in any objective measure without causing large scale harassment of genuine citizens( many of them would be Hindu). The correct approach is to
a. Ensure 100% fencing in the border
b. Ensure strict enforcement of legal crossing of border going forward
c. Modify the border via land and population swap in such a way that the border has clear open land on both sides or natural obstacle to ensure minimal chances of leakage via illegal crossing.
d. Ensure Aadhar with bio-metric is compulsory in the country for all citizens so that future leakage is

This kind of parochial demand of removing people of different ethnicity is not new, Raj Thakre demands it in Maharastra, JDS demands the same in Karnataka, JSR Cong does in AP, NC/PDP demands in Kashmir, Amra Bangali does it in WB and I dare say, there are some elements in all states who have similar demands. There are only 2 ways to deal with them
a. Ignore such demands as much as possible as done in case of MNS and
b. Enter a central reciprocity law to enact strict reciprocity for any state demanding any privileges for domiciles. For e.g., If Kashmir says that only kashmiri domicile can own farm/orchard land etc, by the central law, no kashmiri can own farm/orchard in the rest of the india unless they satisfies the same domicile criteria in that specific state. Or if AP enacts a law that only state domiciles can get jobs in AP, by the central law ensure that no Telugu can get job in the rest of the india unless they satisfy the exact same domicile criteria in the other state (the examples are just for the sake of example here, have nothing against Kashmiri, Telugu are Assamese). Basically, the current system allows some to bargain "what's mine is mine, what yours is negotiable" as a vote bank with threat of violent protest; hit that root of that and such demands would start moderating.

** Why I say that it would be nearly impossible to get the illegals in objective measures? The way our record keeping system is, it is nearly impossible to get complete and correct documentation for each and every one of our ancestors and that is what the illegals take advantage of. They will find one person who is genuine and sympathetic and many would create a document trail starting from that person. Suddenly, one person having his name in 1970s electoral roll will have 8 sons and 10 daughters with 100s of grandchildren, all supporting each other. The original person and his neighbors would be mostly long dead, no way to verify their actual heritage in any practical manner. All the illegals would have more documentation than the legals because the legals were actually never bothered about maintaining such documentation whereas these are the most important activities for all illegals and such documentation is their first priority. Also with our history of natural calamity like floods etc, there are easy ways to explain some small gaps here and there. There is no practical cost effective way to weed out such illegals without causing large scale harassment of legals and already many RW from Assam are feeling the burnt of it (Sunetra Chowdhury is an well known journalists with indic mindset and people in her family has been marked non-citizen)

I know this will not be a popular opinion but unfortunately, this is the reality. While the illegals already in are a threat to local demographics, effort is better spent to ensure this far and no further. I am afraid, all efforts spent in correcting historical wrong with cause more harm for today and tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 19:19

Sachin wrote:
Supratik wrote:Obviously something happened between July 2018 and Aug 2019 so that suddenly 4.1 million became 1.9 million and now we are told even less. We have to find out what happened.

What if people were allowed to leave Assam state and move to other parts of India? West Bengal would be only too eager to help these chaps, especially if they are from a minority community.


Sachin, out of 1.9 mi, 1.3 mil are Hindu. I personally would be very happy if WB govt help them in any possible way. The problem is after getting their citizenship in WB, they can go back to Assam as there is no law to keep a Bong out of Assam but that will not be acceptable to Assamese as their whole agenda of asking for NRC was to remove "Ali Cooli Bongali" (i.e muslims, non state tea garden workers and Bengalis) from Assam via NRC.

Hence you see the howls of protest in Assam against Citizenship Amendment Bill. CAB, while bars "Ali", allows "Cooli" and "Bongali to get in. And I do not agree to the demand of Assam that All Bengali hindus, living in Assam for more than a generation, must leave Assam and go back to WB. There are enough people from Bihar, UP and other states are living in WB. All of us non-Kannadigas living in Karnataka. The giving in to such demand of extra rights for Bhoomiputra without the rest of the india reciprocity is going to break the India as we know it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 01 Sep 2019 19:21

Modi/Shah have been dealt a googley. There are no simple solutions. Lets see what they do with the lemon that they now have in hand.

1. The current process/list is highly flawed. Implementation will only create more issues.
2. Amnesty will only invite further migration from all over the sub-continent including Bangladesh, Bakistan and Afghanistan. Rohingyas are already in line. No amount of border sealing will help.
3. BUT one cannot also hold people in a limbo especially children/grand children born to the original migrants who have known no other place/society.

Very tough situation.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 01 Sep 2019 19:23

https://twitter.com/ManishPandey/status ... 2092618753
Manish Pandey @ManishPandey

Era of Swiss bank secrecy over, India to get details of bank account holders from September

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 19:27

Supratik wrote:The BJP is pretending to be a virgin. The entire process were done under their supervision and they had no clue that the NRC process was being sabotaged. Most govt officials doing the updation process are likely to be Congressi henchmen as they have deep penetration in governance. Now that they have egg on their face best thing to do will be to revisit the entire NRC updation process. Forget the SC. It is an executive decision. Reverify the documents of each individual in Assam NRC outside the state of Assam. Re-check the whole process to find out what loopholes were used. Or use better metric and redo the whole process.


I am afraid the premise itself is fundamentally wrong. Given our record keeping standards and history of natural calamity, migration etc, there is no way to get clean and complete data from the past.

Without bringing in subjectivity, there is no way to reduce false positives and false negatives simultaneously in any objective criteria. The end result would be dictated by quality of data and the final quality of data will remain piss poor as the cut of date of 1971 is already almost half a century old.

Expecting any other outcome is merely wishful thinking.

Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Sep 2019 20:02

Circa 1991 Look How SuSwamy is saying:

1. RAM MANDIR NOT NEEDED.

2. BJP'S ONLY AGENDA IS ANTI MUSLIM.

3. UNFAIR TO REMOVE ARTICLE 370, AS WE HAVE ARTICLE 371 IN NORTH EAST.

HOW THIS CHAMELEON HAS CHANGED:

https://twitter.com/hitarthtweets/statu ... 41857?s=20

pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 01 Sep 2019 20:07

I am not surprised.

SuSwamy was about himself if one had paid careful attention to his utterances over the years.

chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 20:08

Picklu wrote:
Supratik wrote:The BJP is pretending to be a virgin. The entire process were done under their supervision and they had no clue that the NRC process was being sabotaged. Most govt officials doing the updation process are likely to be Congressi henchmen as they have deep penetration in governance. Now that they have egg on their face best thing to do will be to revisit the entire NRC updation process. Forget the SC. It is an executive decision. Reverify the documents of each individual in Assam NRC outside the state of Assam. Re-check the whole process to find out what loopholes were used. Or use better metric and redo the whole process.


I am afraid the premise itself is fundamentally wrong. Given our record keeping standards and history of natural calamity, migration etc, there is no way to get clean and complete data from the past.

Without bringing in subjectivity, there is no way to reduce false positives and false negatives simultaneously in any objective criteria. The end result would be dictated by quality of data and the final quality of data will remain piss poor as the cut of date of 1971 is already almost half a century old.

Expecting any other outcome is merely wishful thinking.


why was trust placed in the two most suborned entities in India.

one proposed and the other "supervised".

was it that difficult to see it coming or did someone take their eye off the ball.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 20:21

pankajs wrote:Modi/Shah have been dealt a googley. There are no simple solutions. Lets see what they do with the lemon that they now have in hand.

1. The current process/list is highly flawed. Implementation will only create more issues.
2. Amnesty will only invite further migration from all over the sub-continent including Bangladesh, Bakistan and Afghanistan. Rohingyas are already in line. No amount of border sealing will help.
3. BUT one cannot also hold people in a limbo especially children/grand children born to the original migrants who have known no other place/society.

Very tough situation.


Border sealing is the right and most practical idea and implemented world wide against illegal migration.

No solution would give 100% result but border sealing would give the most optimum outcome along with mandatory Aadhaar and bio metric collection of data to ensure no such large scale illegal migration happens in future.

Leakage of some 100s here and there in an year are par for the course and should not bother us with more than a billion population.

Far more important is to give immediate solace to 13 Lakh Hindu population.

Just try this for size, so far the worse tragedy for Hindus in independent India has been forced exodus of Kashmiri Pandits. People affected were 1 Lakh i.e less than 7% of the current affected Hindus. And only thing they lost were their homes, all other civil rights were protected whereas in this case, those 13 lakh hindus would go through the worst kind of harrasment. It does not matter what the govt or SC says, any person with real life experience would know how the system would treat these poor folks.

Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 20:25

chetak wrote:
Picklu wrote:
I am afraid the premise itself is fundamentally wrong. Given our record keeping standards and history of natural calamity, migration etc, there is no way to get clean and complete data from the past.

Without bringing in subjectivity, there is no way to reduce false positives and false negatives simultaneously in any objective criteria. The end result would be dictated by quality of data and the final quality of data will remain piss poor as the cut of date of 1971 is already almost half a century old.

Expecting any other outcome is merely wishful thinking.


why was trust placed in the two most suborned entities in India.

one proposed and the other "supervised".

was it that difficult to see it coming or did someone take their eye off the ball.


Chetak, it does not matter who proposes, supervises and implements. Give the responsibility to Army if you want and the result would still be the same.

Given that we are talking about past data i.e. almost half a century old, the quality of data will remain piss poor. Add our lack of record keeping and flood, earth quake etc, the data would be incomplete. Given such a situation, either their will be large number of false positives (illegal passing through) or large negative (genuines getting stuck) irrespective of who implements, supervises and adjudicates.

This is science; expecting anything else, as i said, is wishful thinking.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 01 Sep 2019 20:28

Why do you think there won't be false positives and false negatives ? That's a given. If any of you think things won't get messy, then they are being unrealistic. A billion indics can't suffer just so that there aren't false negatives. That's shouldn't be the reason not to expel illegals. It just needs political will. Allowing 2 3 croroes illegal BMs who have pretty high TFR is suicide in 40 50 years' time. Sorry can't be allowed.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 20:40

So, 13+ lakh indics have to be sacrificed today for some hypothetical suffering of the remaining billion indics that may happen in the next 40-50 years?

That too to get only less than 6 lakh "possible" non indics who btw can not be expelled as they are already in and no country would take them?

So, by extrapolation, to get 3 Crore non indics 7 Crore indics has to be sacrificed?

If this is the level of empathy shown to fellow indics i.e. as long as I am not impacted, let the worst happen to others, then I am sorry no Modi/Shah/BJP can save us.

We will again see what happened to Rajputs during malsi rules.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 20:48

Is it any wonder.

most of the beedis are in India depressing our per capita figures


twitter

At current rates, Bangladesh could top India's per capita income by 2020

And yes, te per capita income of Bangladesh is already higher than Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and UP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 01 Sep 2019 20:49

Those 13 lakh indics can and must be given Indian citizenship. IMO, any person of Indic faiths in both BD and pak must be given as a default. Don't know where you got your calculation of 3 7 crores, sounds like a strawman.
Point is this, illegal BMs, rohingyas etc must be deported. Indics in BD and pak who are here must be given citizenship ASAP.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 20:57

Karthik S wrote:Those 13 lakh indics can and must be given Indian citizenship. IMO, any person of Indic faiths in both BD and pak must be given as a default. Don't know where you got your calculation of 3 7 crores, sounds like a strawman.
Point is this, illegal BMs, rohingyas etc must be deported. Indics in BD and pak who are here must be given citizenship ASAP.


Then let's get the 13 lakh indics citizenship asap? You would agree that is the first priority to avoid major crisis, correct? The next parliamentary session must see the CAB passed in both house, are we in agreement? In the last parliamentary session, CAB were not even tabled even though it was known NRC is coming, hence my doubt about the sincerity in this matter.

You only mentioned the number of 3 Crore illegals. Out of 19 million illegals in NRC, 13+ Lakh are hindu and 6- lakhs are muslim. You can take that ratio and extrapolate how much the impact would be if you have to find out 3 Crore illegals and you will get the 7 Crore number, nothing straw-man about it other than your 3 crore number.

And about expelling/deporting etc, really? No country will take them legally. All that will happen is they will create an alternate economy via illegal means because life does not stop. Thinking anything else is expecting DeMo would stop black money, we know how exactly that is panning out in India!!!

We will pay a much larger price because of that alternate economy. There is a reason why no country in the world is trying this method however much illegal immigration they face.

Allowing those illegals is as much frustrating for me as for you but I am much more pragmatic of how things evolve on the ground.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 01 Sep 2019 21:19

3 crores BMs and 7 crores Indics extrapolation is strawman, not just talking about 3 crore. Regarding no country will take them, well don't know why any country should take them other than BDs, and I really hope MAD are not thinking the way you are regarding that. All this will be a messy process, our L&O, security and survival depends on it. As such we are losing ground in India because of both foreign cults. If govt is not willing to take hard decisions, then all this economy, GDP growth, art 370 will not mean anything, gazwa e hind will be inevitable.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 21:36

And let me make my stand clear

NRC is intrinsically tied with:
a. CAB for indics and
b. deportation/other measures for illegals

Personally, i do not think deportation etc will happen, there is just no way of doing that practically. Given my real life experience, amnesty is more pragmatic solution but it would take the full experience of current cycle for people to realize that. Just like the realization of DeMo has drawn and none are asking for another round of DeMo any more even though current number of 2k and 500 notes are way more than previous numbers of 1k and 500. Some of the real life realization happens late.

However where none of us are divergent is the necessity for CAB. We can wait for deportation etc but CAB is the bare minimum enabling requirement for NRC to ensure indics are not harassed unnecessarily. What gets my goat is that indics are not asking for CAB as much as they are asking for NRC. There is just some lip service. As evident in the last parliamentary session, CAB were not even tabled even though it was well known that NRC is coming. Still everyone is making the hard demand for NRC. You do not have to be a fakular but at least be an indic and demand CAB first!!!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 01 Sep 2019 21:36

That 13 lakhs are HIndus of those left out of NRC is a new figure to me. The talk was that of the original 40 lakh, only 5 lakh were HIndus. Didn't HBS himself said so before the 2019 general elections?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 21:38

Karthik S wrote:3 crores BMs and 7 crores Indics extrapolation is strawman, not just talking about 3 crore. Regarding no country will take them, well don't know why any country should take them other than BDs, and I really hope MAD are not thinking the way you are regarding that. All this will be a messy process, our L&O, security and survival depends on it. As such we are losing ground in India because of both foreign cults. If govt is not willing to take hard decisions, then all this economy, GDP growth, art 370 will not mean anything, gazwa e hind will be inevitable.


I just hope you are not paying lip service of CAB and would demand it as hard and with as much passion as you are demanding NRC in the next parliamentary session.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 21:38

Karthik S wrote:3 crores BMs and 7 crores Indics extrapolation is strawman, not just talking about 3 crore. Regarding no country will take them, well don't know why any country should take them other than BDs, and I really hope MAD are not thinking the way you are regarding that. All this will be a messy process, our L&O, security and survival depends on it. As such we are losing ground in India because of both foreign cults. If govt is not willing to take hard decisions, then all this economy, GDP growth, art 370 will not mean anything, gazwa e hind will be inevitable.


the major fallout of this fiasco is that the NRC rollout across the rest of the country is adversely affected and this will become a major issue in the polls in WB, bihar and other NE states.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 21:44

hanumadu wrote:That 13 lakhs are HIndus of those left out of NRC is a new figure to me. The talk was that of the original 40 lakh, only 5 lakh were HIndus. Didn't HBS himself said so before the 2019 general elections?


However, it has now turned out that a majority of those excluded from the list are Hindus. Preliminary scanning of the final NRC and tallying of it with the draft NRC published in July last year reveals that more than 13 lakh of the 19 lakh excluded from the final NRC are Hindus, and nearly 11 lakh are Bengali Hindus.


From this post in this vary thread at the top of current page, coming from Swarajyamag, not some left liberal source.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 21:51

its high time someone cut this mercenary down to size and shunted him out of the political arena. He is beginning to have serious delusions of grandeur.


Prashant Kishor Verified account @PrashantKishor

A botched up NRC leaves lakhs of people as foreigners in their own country!

Such is the price people pay when political posturing & rhetoric is misunderstood as solution for complex issues related to national security without paying attention to strategic & systemic challenges.

2:04 AM - 1 Sep 2019





twitter


Big words about political rhetoric et al but let this be known it is the #SupremeCourt which started the entire #NRC exercise in #Assam, monitored it since 2015, rejected every request by the previous & present #Assam Govt to modify deadlines etc, shot down Centre's plea too.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 22:13

chetak wrote:its high time someone cut this mercenary down to size and shunted him out of the political arena. He is beginning to have serious delusions of grandeur.


Prashant Kishor Verified account @PrashantKishor

A botched up NRC leaves lakhs of people as foreigners in their own country!

Such is the price people pay when political posturing & rhetoric is misunderstood as solution for complex issues related to national security without paying attention to strategic & systemic challenges.

2:04 AM - 1 Sep 2019





twitter


Big words about political rhetoric et al but let this be known it is the #SupremeCourt which started the entire #NRC exercise in #Assam, monitored it since 2015, rejected every request by the previous & present #Assam Govt to modify deadlines etc, shot down Centre's plea too.


As I mentioned, it is relation of false positives and false negetives is science. Does not matter who implements, very similar result would have come out. The only way to reduce the blow would have been to introduce CAB upfront. Stating 20% re-verification would have improved accuracy is similar to the thought process of expecting different result while making the same mistakes again and again.

Even among the Muslims, many frauds have sneaked in and genuine have remained out. However, as I said, only after really experiencing how the deportation etc works and how the alternate economy actually causes problem for us people would realize why amnesty and future sealing is more pragmatic idea.

In this entire hoopla, none is exactly tracking about the border fencing any more since the magic bullet of NRC is going to solve the illegal problem. I am pretty certain that there has not been much progress and the gaps remain as it is. The only improvement of the situation would have been the exchange of enclaves in WB-BD border making real improvement in border management even though it is the states other than WB who makes more noise on BD illegals!!!!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hanumadu » 01 Sep 2019 22:55

Picklu wrote:
hanumadu wrote:That 13 lakhs are HIndus of those left out of NRC is a new figure to me. The talk was that of the original 40 lakh, only 5 lakh were HIndus. Didn't HBS himself said so before the 2019 general elections?


However, it has now turned out that a majority of those excluded from the list are Hindus. Preliminary scanning of the final NRC and tallying of it with the draft NRC published in July last year reveals that more than 13 lakh of the 19 lakh excluded from the final NRC are Hindus, and nearly 11 lakh are Bengali Hindus.


From this post in this vary thread at the top of current page, coming from Swarajyamag, not some left liberal source.


HBS himself is saying 13 lakhs left out are Hindus. What ever the source is, why couldn't any one have done this preliminary scanning after the final draft in 2018. Why do you need to tally both the lists to determine who is a Hindu and who is a muslim?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 01 Sep 2019 22:59

EswarPrakash wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:I really hope so. Hope to see the Art 370 avatar of Modi rather than his Parliament-bowing, Constitution-kissing version!


IMHO this is a very important part of his persona and people's perception of him. I strongly believe this love for our constitution is ingrained in him. This primarily means that people will trust his judgement when A-370 is abrogated via constitutional methods and when left-libtards and SJWs screech "death of constitution" - no one believe them.

Good point. Modi has said that without the Constitution, specifically Ambedkar's contributions, a man like him would never have got the opportunity to become PM.

It's a different matter that neither the pro-Modi nor the anti-Modi elements can believe he is sincere.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 01 Sep 2019 23:12

pankajs wrote:I have had this thought for months so let me put it down here now that we are back to the Bangladeshi question.

1. How many folks here believe in Global warming?
2. IF you believe in global warming ask yourself what will its impact be on Bangladesh?
3. IF Bangladesh is submerged fully or partially where will that leave the Bangladeshis? Will they collectively drown or migrate?
4. Assuming Bangladesh is fully submerged and the Bangladeshis do not perish in the process where do folks think will these Bangladeshis end up?

As I had commented a long-time back, we are worrying about 2 crore while not grasping the larger issue. My initial thought was based on the "Akhand Bharat" rhetoric that was once in fashion may be still is.

Better pray that Global warming is a sham and banish the thought of Akhand Bharat. I am deliberately talking the maximalist position to draw our collective attention to the larger question.

I agree with your point. I have thought for some time that "path to citizenship" for Bangladeshis in a place like Assam should include a process that amounts to "ghar wapasi" with an Assamese flavour:

- renounce the supremacy and entitlement arising out of "any" religion

- renounce & denounce any doctrine of punishment for individuals leaving a religion

- recognize they are in a country where murthy-puja is normal and commit to not opposing but-parasti (literally demon-worship) in word or deed

- take up Assamese as first language

- commit to not forming mohallas/bastis/ghettos of fellow immigrants

- all of the above enforced by an Immigrant Hospitality Authority which will take cognizance of violations and expeditiously levy civil and criminal penalties--including the loss of civil rights.

East & northeast will be stuck with these people day after tomorrow if not tomorrow and it is best to have a plan to protect ourselves in the face of what is coming our way.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 01 Sep 2019 23:20

We can think of what happens to Indics later. Don't throw the baby with the bathwater. This govt has already implemented the rule that no refugee will be thrown out. First we have to fix the NRC. Assam has gone from 25% M to 35% in AS. Similar in WB. Can't happen without illegal immigration. Giving it to the army is a good idea. I think the babus are mostly incapable of any good, honest work.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 01 Sep 2019 23:28

twitter


Thanks to the Sunanda investigation gaining steam, Shashi Tharoor suddenly finds himself in a

“glutinous admixture of herbaceous viands, succulent meats and pulverised legumes daintily stewed over a benignly blazing flame.”

i.e. in simple English, “A soup.”

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 23:41

Supratik wrote:We can think of what happens to Indics later. Don't throw the baby with the bathwater. This govt has already implemented the rule that no refugee will be thrown out. First we have to fix the NRC. Assam has gone from 25% M to 35% in AS. Similar in WB. Can't happen without illegal immigration. Giving it to the army is a good idea. I think the babus are mostly incapable of any good, honest work.


I am not throwing the baby with the bathwater. I am fine with the work given to army. I am ready to bet that the result would not be significantly different with Army implementation because what i am stating is scientific. You want to check if a 1 kg weight and 100 kg weight would reach the ground at the same time if released by army man. That is fine, do it in your own way. Seeing the result, you would try to find some organisation other than army to implement NRC for the 3rd round.

However, as i have said earlier and proven right in the Assam NRC implementation, let's not sacrifice the indics because we are personally not getting impacted. Let's get the CAB in asap. This attitude of insensitivity towards fellow indics is one of the reason why we are never able to unite in the face of external enemy, no MAD or BJP would be able to save us from internal fraction.

We can not think of them later when their suffering has already started. The time to provide a solution to them is now. NRC can wait till CAB gets implemented, we have anyway waited for this NRC for years, a few more parliamentary sessions would not cause any major problem.
Last edited by Picklu on 01 Sep 2019 23:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 01 Sep 2019 23:46

I have deeply studied the demographic data. This NRC is flawed. And don't give me the crap of Bengali Indics. We know how many Bengali Indics in India were standing up for them when they were being murdered, property looted, women raped and abducted and expelled from Bdesh. They were singing Rabindrasangeet and bhajans to Marx. First the NRC needs to be fixed.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 01 Sep 2019 23:51

Supratik wrote:I have deeply studied the demographic data. This NRC is flawed. And don't give me the crap of Bengali Indics. We know how many Bengali Indics in India were standing up for them when they were being murdered, property looted, women raped and abducted and expelled from Bdesh. They were singing Rabindrasangeet and bhajans to Marx. First the NRC needs to be fixed.


There are more than a crore bengali hindu from bangladesh sheltered by bengalis in WB as of today, 2 crore were sheltered at the time of 1971. If you do not know this, please do not claim any knowledge of history or demographic data of Bengal.

Selfish reasons of letting some poor indic folks suffer because self is not impacted is disgusting and not worthy of an indic. As sanatan dharma says, karma is a bitch and the people behaving insensitively would have to pay within this lifetime itself.

And for your kind information, more than 2 lakh non bengali hindu are also suffering. More in numbers than KPs ever suffered.
Last edited by Picklu on 02 Sep 2019 00:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 02 Sep 2019 00:05

Don't give me crap. When you are being ethnically cleansed you fight back - with the gun. We know what the Bengali bhadralok did. nothing. Only Marx bhajan and Mao janmashtami.


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