2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Picklu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 02 Sep 2019 00:11

So some other bengali hindu have to pay for supposed "sins" of Bengali Bhadralok? (Even though, the only sin here is your knowledge of Bengali history but that's beside the point)

You are talking crap and you don't even realize it, you are so full of it.

I opposed this exercise from the very beginning for exactly the same reason. Now the result is obvious but you are so blinded by your ego, you can't admit you were wrong.

Since you can not rebut logically, you started talking of "crap" and all other off topic points like marx and mao. As if that can cover for your lack of knowledge!

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Supratik » 02 Sep 2019 00:17

No I am asking you and all bhadraloks to stop your crocodile tears. We know what you did for the last 40-50 years. The Bdeshi Hindu illegal population in Assam was estimated to be around 1 million and the NRC has picked them up. The question is where are the estimated 3-4 million Bdeshi muslims. How did they suddenly become legit. The BJP and the home ministry has been caught by its testicles by anti-national forces. We need to first find out how the fraud happened.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 02 Sep 2019 00:40

Supratik wrote:No I am asking you and all bhadraloks to stop your crocodile tears. We know what you did for the last 40-50 years. The Bdeshi Hindu illegal population in Assam was estimated to be around 1 million and the NRC has picked them up. The question is where are the estimated 3-4 million Bdeshi muslims. How did they suddenly become legit. The BJP and the home ministry has been caught by its testicles by anti-national forces. We need to first find out how the fraud happened.


So, as per you, I am something bad as "bhadralok" and you are not? My concern is crocodile tears and your concern is indic? Wow, using your bong heritage to behave like house nigger!!! Devoid of any logic, so get into personal attack with pejoratives like "Bhadralok", "Marx", "Mao", "Crocodile Tears" and what not.

You have absolutely no further claim to to ask me or any "bhadralok" anything. You do not represent bongs neither you are an indic. All your logic is similar to maxist tubelights as in marxism failed because Russian/Cuban/Martians didn't implement correctly. Makes almost as much sense as RaGa's nandi droppings.

So please ignore my further posts, do not respond. Neither will I as I am putting you in my ignore list.

For the rest of the forum members, the hindus that have been disfranchised today, have as much right of indic heritage as the rest of India and if rest of India do not stand their fellow indics today, the future won't be good. History have strange ways of catching up. All the so called vaunted warrior clans of india - Maratha, Tamil, Rajput, Sikh etc, all were enslaved by British one by one because all of them could not unite and unity does not come when utter insensitivity is shown to the sufferings of one section of fellow men. It might be fashionable to denigrate Bong hindus today as Bhadralok but it is the same Bhadralok clan that gave Rishi Aurobindo, Bankim, Netaji, a significant percentage of armed revolutionaries against British, SP Mookherjee and even the RSS founder did his medical studies and internship in kolkata among bongs before returning to Nagpur and establishing RSS.

CAB has much more priority than NRC. I will not ask you not to support NRC (the exercise would end up being futile anyway however, if you think it is useful, go ahead) but please help getting the CAB passed at the earliest.

As of now, I have not seen a single person to give any good reason why CAB has to wait while NRC should continue. Continue with NRC, no issues, but please think of the 13 lakh hindus who have been rendered stateless in their own country and push to get the CAB in asap. Playing petty politics in this regard would have other payback areas, given the number of cryptos hiding amongst us. Every indic life matters, creating a faultline among indics as "bhadralok" vs "nonbhadralok" will not end well.

Also, even practically going ahead with CAB before NRC makes more sense. It removes all hindu, buddhist, jains, sikhs etc from the exercise right away allowing much more focus, effort and bandwidth on non indics. Just think about it and it will be clear that anyone suggesting NRC before CAB is peddling snake oil as in a magic bullet solution of pan india NRC for more than 1 billion citizen will solve all illegal problem. Other than being a humongous expensive and time consuming process, nothing good will come out of it. At least by ensuring CAB as an enabling precondition, the scope of the exercise can be make much more manageable.
Last edited by Picklu on 02 Sep 2019 03:42, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 02 Sep 2019 01:16

hanumadu wrote:
Picklu wrote:


From this post in this vary thread at the top of current page, coming from Swarajyamag, not some left liberal source.


HBS himself is saying 13 lakhs left out are Hindus. What ever the source is, why couldn't any one have done this preliminary scanning after the final draft in 2018. Why do you need to tally both the lists to determine who is a Hindu and who is a muslim?


I have not done this tallying obviously, I am going by what came in Swarajyamag. However there are enough other sources corroborating that figure.

Here is one more interesting statistics. One of the seats in WB that BJP wins always is Darjeeling. All Gorkhas there have been loyal supporters of BJP for ages. The final NRC have removed more than 1 lakh Gorkhas in Assam from citizenship roll. So much for Bengali hindus deserve defranchisement, their sufferings can wait!!!

Now to sell this statistics, the snake oil peddlers who have "deeply studied demographic data" are trying to say that this was being known all along and expected. None questioning how come the earlier figure of 5 lakh hindu suddenly became 13 lakh in the final figure. None of them are being able to explain what is the safeguard for these Hindus and why the exercise should proceed further without providing the safeguard to the Hindus first. They can not. Hence the throwing of off topic pejoratives like "Bhadralok", "Crocodile Tears" etc in an attempt to bully opposing voice of sanity silence. Now the deflecting technique is to blame babu, judiciary and everyone else for the current result that was expected and latching the straw of "Army would have done it right". Yes, as if scientific methods will give different result if tried by different people!

Btw, as expected in any human activities, there are lot of discrepancies in the current list of 19 lakh non-citizens as well and the number of muslims affected would come down below 6 lakh even as soon as they start approaching the foreign tribunals. In many cases, parents have been marked as citizens whereas kids are marked illegal. In some cases, out of 5 siblings, 3 has been marked citizen and 2 have not, even though all provided the same set of documents. Mark my word, in the end, not more than 5 lakh actual bd muslim illegals would be identified.If there was ever an example of "mountain giving birth to a mouse", Assam NRC is one.

But the number of false negatives of 13+ lakh are obviously staggering and the harassment that they will face in the coming months are also very real. Even more unfortunate, unlike the terrorist sympathizers in Kashmir valley, these false negatives haven't done any harm to the nation.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 05:26

KLNMurthy wrote:
pankajs wrote:I have had this thought for months so let me put it down here now that we are back to the Bangladeshi question.

1. How many folks here believe in Global warming?
2. IF you believe in global warming ask yourself what will its impact be on Bangladesh?
3. IF Bangladesh is submerged fully or partially where will that leave the Bangladeshis? Will they collectively drown or migrate?
4. Assuming Bangladesh is fully submerged and the Bangladeshis do not perish in the process where do folks think will these Bangladeshis end up?

As I had commented a long-time back, we are worrying about 2 crore while not grasping the larger issue. My initial thought was based on the "Akhand Bharat" rhetoric that was once in fashion may be still is.

Better pray that Global warming is a sham and banish the thought of Akhand Bharat. I am deliberately talking the maximalist position to draw our collective attention to the larger question.

I agree with your point. I have thought for some time that "path to citizenship" for Bangladeshis in a place like Assam should include a process that amounts to "ghar wapasi" with an Assamese flavour:

- renounce the supremacy and entitlement arising out of "any" religion

- renounce & denounce any doctrine of punishment for individuals leaving a religion

- recognize they are in a country where murthy-puja is normal and commit to not opposing but-parasti (literally demon-worship) in word or deed

- take up Assamese as first language

- commit to not forming mohallas/bastis/ghettos of fellow immigrants

- all of the above enforced by an Immigrant Hospitality Authority which will take cognizance of violations and expeditiously levy civil and criminal penalties--including the loss of civil rights.

East & northeast will be stuck with these people day after tomorrow if not tomorrow and it is best to have a plan to protect ourselves in the face of what is coming our way.


Deportation is just kicking the Can down the road and it will come back to bit us in a generation or two.

Jinnahs grandpa was essentially “deported from his community and look at what he did.

Won’t the NRC excercise create a good database which can be leveraged in the future. Everyone should be denied citizenship and be given a path to citizenship based on credit. Part of that should be work and tenancy/labour in atleast two different regions of India. Building infra . Security forces other vocations.

Why should Assam bear the brunt of refugees. Every star needs to participate in assimilation.

They have to be broken up from their local ghettos. Deportation is also a kind longer term ghettoization

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 02 Sep 2019 05:42

banrjeer wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:I agree with your point. I have thought for some time that "path to citizenship" for Bangladeshis in a place like Assam should include a process that amounts to "ghar wapasi" with an Assamese flavour:

- renounce the supremacy and entitlement arising out of "any" religion

- renounce & denounce any doctrine of punishment for individuals leaving a religion

- recognize they are in a country where murthy-puja is normal and commit to not opposing but-parasti (literally demon-worship) in word or deed

- take up Assamese as first language

- commit to not forming mohallas/bastis/ghettos of fellow immigrants

- all of the above enforced by an Immigrant Hospitality Authority which will take cognizance of violations and expeditiously levy civil and criminal penalties--including the loss of civil rights.

East & northeast will be stuck with these people day after tomorrow if not tomorrow and it is best to have a plan to protect ourselves in the face of what is coming our way.


Deportation is just kicking the Can down the road and it will come back to bit us in a generation or two.

Jinnahs grandpa was essentially “deported from his community and look at what he did.

Won’t the NRC excercise create a good database which can be leveraged in the future. Everyone should be denied citizenship and be given a path to citizenship based on credit. Part of that should be work and tenancy/labour in atleast two different regions of India. Building infra . Security forces other vocations.

Why should Assam bear the brunt of refugees. Every star needs to participate in assimilation.

They have to be broken up from their local ghettos. Deportation is also a kind longer term ghettoization


For deportation, some other nation has to accept the deportees. Do you realistically think BD will take back the muslim illegal immigrants? Anyway, the current exercise at the most will identify 5 lakh illegal muslims!!! The same exercise, can be repeated but I can tell you won't give much better results.

Now, about the remaining folks that have missed out in NRC, do you think we should push Hindu refugees back to BD? 11 lakh are as such. Out of remaining, 1 lakh are gorkha and the remaining are non bengali non assamese hindus. All these 13+lakh are residing in Assam for more than 30 years now. What further criteria/points are required, after such long stay, to give them citizenship?

I am absolutely with you that keeping them somewhere in limbo will not be good. They will form their alternative economy and that economy, like the version created in Mumbai by Dawood, would subvert our nation in far worse manner than giving them amnesty.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 05:52

This should steer clear of religion or other indoctrination. Languages and cultural familiarization is ok. Focus can be work remote residency and deghettoization not Chinese style education camps. The criteria can evolve.

But asking for this is a tall order and assumes a well governed state that has things in order

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 07:42

@picklu

What is CAB ? I’m sorry but I am ignorant here. Can you provide a link?

As far as NRC is concerned the outcome seems poor but perhaps the data and stats gathered can be leveraged strategically ?

All can be given citizenship but not instantaneously. Only temporary residency status should be given first. This will defang human rights busy bodies.

It can take 15 years for legit professionals to become US citizens via green card. They go thru a fully documented process which is dependent on backlog.

For refugees to India can a similar process be put in place? Credit can be based on nation building activity payment of taxes where applicable etc

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 02 Sep 2019 08:00

banrjeer wrote:Deportation is just kicking the Can down the road and it will come back to bit us in a generation or two.

Jinnahs grandpa was essentially “deported from his community and look at what he did.

Won’t the NRC excercise create a good database which can be leveraged in the future. Everyone should be denied citizenship and be given a path to citizenship based on credit. Part of that should be work and tenancy/labour in atleast two different regions of India. Building infra . Security forces other vocations.

Why should Assam bear the brunt of refugees. Every star needs to participate in assimilation.

They have to be broken up from their local ghettos. Deportation is also a kind longer term ghettoization


kya chutiaypa hai. Not sure if this is a serious post or just trolling by a bot.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 10:31

Aur non-chutiyapa kya hai boss ? Do you have any suggestions ?

Do you thing a toothless deportation exercise is enough to solve the long term issue? Will BD forever remain neutral/pro India or reduce the influx of people to please India?

Even Nepal is unpredictable.

Please look at demographic trends. A lot of us are set to become aliens in our own land like the KPs.
The KPs were like ostriches with their head In the sand quietly participating in admiistration or ordinary jobs but ever thought about their leverage in future generations till it was too late.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 02 Sep 2019 11:57

Does anyone believe that any significant number of people can be pushed back into Bangladesh without their co-operation?

https://www.news18.com/news/india/post- ... 92925.html
No One Came to India after 1971, Says Bangladesh HM After Himanta Sarma's 'Take People Back' Remark

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 02 Sep 2019 12:33

banrjeer wrote:Aur non-chutiyapa kya hai boss ? Do you have any suggestions ?

Do you thing a toothless deportation exercise is enough to solve the long term issue? Will BD forever remain neutral/pro India or reduce the influx of people to please India?

Even Nepal is unpredictable.

Please look at demographic trends. A lot of us are set to become aliens in our own land like the KPs.
The KPs were like ostriches with their head In the sand quietly participating in admiistration or ordinary jobs but ever thought about their leverage in future generations till it was too late.


Different things here, BD is not neutral, it's present leadership may be or appear to be. But people of BD will always be anti India. And NO the influx of people won't stop. Those two are besides the point about what we are going to do about illegal BDs inside our country. In our neighborhood we are on our own.

Regarding demographic trends, that's exactly my point isn't it. It's a given that BDs won't accept back theirs, but are we going to leave it at that and allow 2 3 crore illegal BDMs to reside in India? Absolutely NO, whatever it takes including arm twisting, bribing top govt officials or anything, we need to send back those people. I mean we as a country are worried about BD and what will happen to our relationship should we force illegals back, then honestly, such a country doesn't deserve to survive.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 13:40

@karthik
Pleasing BD is irrelevant. Even if BD is pleased as punch and willing to do our bidding and accepts all their deported nationals it won’t solve our problem.

Simply because they are ineffectual and That border has proven to be useless.

You have to solve the root cause as if the border does not exist and at any given point 10 percent of the 240 million BDs are seeking to cross over



How do u deal with that. Deportation is inefficient and expensive and will only snag a fraction. You need to make sure that you can track the remainder (ideally zero but practically impossible to achieve) ...track and ensure that the nationalists get to them
First and not BIF.

No Mexican migrant is anti US. ****** that even in the post trump era Mexicans remain pro US.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 02 Sep 2019 14:12

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 7860875264
News18 @CNNnews18

#BREAKING – Supreme Court declines to quash probe against NCP leader Ajit Pawar in Cooperative Bank scam case. Conduct free and fair probe: SC to Maharashtra Police. | @utkarsh_aanand
with more details

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Sep 2019 14:28

banrjeer wrote:Aur non-chutiyapa kya hai boss ?.

both of you..may i request to tamper your language

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Sep 2019 14:28

Karthik S wrote:kya chutiaypa hai. Not sure if this is a serious post or just trolling by a bot.

karthik sir no need for this

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Karthik S » 02 Sep 2019 15:40

banrjeer wrote:@karthik
Pleasing BD is irrelevant. Even if BD is pleased as punch and willing to do our bidding and accepts all their deported nationals it won’t solve our problem.

Simply because they are ineffectual and That border has proven to be useless.

You have to solve the root cause as if the border does not exist and at any given point 10 percent of the 240 million BDs are seeking to cross over



How do u deal with that. Deportation is inefficient and expensive and will only snag a fraction. You need to make sure that you can track the remainder (ideally zero but practically impossible to achieve) ...track and ensure that the nationalists get to them
First and not BIF.

No Mexican migrant is anti US. ****** that even in the post trump era Mexicans remain pro US.



OK, let's look at this

'Every star needs to participate' (Assuming you are referring to one star per state on US flag)
'No Mexican migrant is anti US. ****** that even in the post trump era Mexicans remain pro US.'
'Everyone should be denied citizenship and be given a path to citizenship based on credit. Part of that should be work and tenancy/labour in atleast two different regions of India.'

OK, we understand you are in US and are looking through western prism to 'immigration' problem in India. Your language as well reflects your western thinking, the way dialogue happens in US wrt immigration. You may mean well, but none of what you say makes sense. So highly recommended that you leave it at that.

BTW next time check for correct statistic, you are way off BD population figure.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 02 Sep 2019 18:23

banrjeer wrote:@picklu

What is CAB ? I’m sorry but I am ignorant here. Can you provide a link?

As far as NRC is concerned the outcome seems poor but perhaps the data and stats gathered can be leveraged strategically ?

All can be given citizenship but not instantaneously. Only temporary residency status should be given first. This will defang human rights busy bodies.

It can take 15 years for legit professionals to become US citizens via green card. They go thru a fully documented process which is dependent on backlog.

For refugees to India can a similar process be put in place? Credit can be based on nation building activity payment of taxes where applicable etc


CAB = Citizenship Amendment Bill

Without this, conducting NRC is meaningless. It will just cause more hurt to our own than others.

Even with this, the NRC exercise would end up being largely useless in its stated goal as shown in the current round (Will find less than 5 lakh illegal bd muslims in Assam) but some people would have chest beating satisfaction that we did something (off course in the process caused huge amount of harassment and alienation to 13+ lakh indic folks)

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 02 Sep 2019 21:33

Karthik S wrote:
banrjeer wrote:@karthik
Pleasing BD is irrelevant. Even if BD is pleased as punch and willing to do our bidding and accepts all their deported nationals it won’t solve our problem.

Simply because they are ineffectual and That border has proven to be useless.

You have to solve the root cause as if the border does not exist and at any given point 10 percent of the 240 million BDs are seeking to cross over



How do u deal with that. Deportation is inefficient and expensive and will only snag a fraction. You need to make sure that you can track the remainder (ideally zero but practically impossible to achieve) ...track and ensure that the nationalists get to them
First and not BIF.

No Mexican migrant is anti US. ****** that even in the post trump era Mexicans remain pro US.



OK, let's look at this

'Every star needs to participate' (Assuming you are referring to one star per state on US flag)
'No Mexican migrant is anti US. ****** that even in the post trump era Mexicans remain pro US.'
'Everyone should be denied citizenship and be given a path to citizenship based on credit. Part of that should be work and tenancy/labour in atleast two different regions of India.'

OK, we understand you are in US and are looking through western prism to 'immigration' problem in India. Your language as well reflects your western thinking, the way dialogue happens in US wrt immigration. You may mean well, but none of what you say makes sense. So highly recommended that you leave it at that.

BTW next time check for correct statistic, you are way off BD population figure.



Obviously I did not mean star it is a type error. Ad yes I erred on BD population but that does not change anything.

The very notion of a border, checkpoints and deportation are also "western prism" and "western legal constructs"
So why not get rid of those too?


"Your language as well reflects your western thinking, the way dialogue happens in US wrt immigration"

Yes you can call it whatever. But do you have a solution or alternative ?
Typically I see "western policies" get enacted in India after a lag of a few decades, can you leap frog instead of late adoption?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 03 Sep 2019 09:25

When one can't identify enemies........


Amid economic slowdown, MG Motors sold 3256 “Hector” models in just 2 months. 28,000 more booked
https://tfipost.com/2019/09/amid-econom ... re-booked/
The demand for SUVs priced between 12 lakh-18 lakh like Kia Seltos, Tata Harrier, Hyundai Creta, Renault Kaptur and Nissan Kicks is at an all-time low. However, amid this general trend, there is one exception- the Hector by MG Motor.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vishvak » 03 Sep 2019 12:43

The very notion of a border, checkpoints and deportation are also "western prism" and "western legal constructs"
So why not get rid of those too?

Sirji, as an aside, the issue of Ram Janmaathaan temple is also about Panipat war (first) - that Babur the gazi won if I remember correctly.

Assam is most strategic state location wise in North East region and how population increased in certain ways and only for certain ideology. How's population problem of Bangladesh - an independent country - someone else's problem.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 03 Sep 2019 13:39

vishvak wrote:
The very notion of a border, checkpoints and deportation are also "western prism" and "western legal constructs"
So why not get rid of those too?

Sirji, as an aside, the issue of Ram Janmaathaan temple is also about Panipat war (first) - that Babur the gazi won if I remember correctly.

Assam is most strategic state location wise in North East region and how population increased in certain ways and only for certain ideology. How's population problem of Bangladesh - an independent country - someone else's problem.


Perhaps you did not read the other points I raised. Whether we or BD likes it or not. BD has become our problem. It's not my claim but empirically we see that the border is useless and people are moving through it.

Deportation rate will never match the influx rate. So you have to plan that the people who don't return back are not leveraged by BIF first.
If we can't stop the influx at least let be on our terms instead of losing the plot

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Sep 2019 18:21

On another matter - there are facts and there are narratives. Narratives give weights to facts.

Simple example - Yasin Malik's physician was detained for a while in Kashmir. Roughly at the same time, a Shia cardiologist was gunned down in Karachi.

If facts were weighed per the impact on individuals, then the killing in Karachi would dominate the headlines over the detention of the physician in Kashmir.

But facts are always embedded in a narrative. The physician detention is in a narrative about "Indian oppression in Kashmir" which has the world's attention much more than the "On-going anti-Shia pogrom in Pakistan".

Media power, soft power is all about influence and even control over which narratives are paid attention to. It obviously helps to have a narrative that doesn't go too much against the facts. But facts are given weight and brought to attention based on the dominant narratives. That is why I bet most of you heard about Yasin Malik's physician but not about Dr Haider Askari.

About J&K India has managed the narrative reasonably well so far. But one can sense upcoming threats to the Indian narrative, and it is largely up to the government to try to arrange facts on the ground so that the Indian narrative is not supplanted by some other. Further, since the main challenge to the Indian narrative comes from Pakistan, it is up to all of us to push narratives about Pakistan that require Pakistanis to defend themselves and take effort away from attacking India. We have plenty, including the treatment of Baluchistan, of the Frontier Areas, of Shias in Gilgit-Baltistan, FATF, Taliban, etc. etc.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 03 Sep 2019 18:49

Karthik S wrote:Those 13 lakh indics can and must be given Indian citizenship. IMO, any person of Indic faiths in both BD and pak must be given as a default. Don't know where you got your calculation of 3 7 crores, sounds like a strawman.
Point is this, illegal BMs, rohingyas etc must be deported. Indics in BD and pak who are here must be given citizenship ASAP.

Didn't Amit Shah say during the campaign that Hindu refugees will be given citizenship?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Sep 2019 19:36

KLNMurthy wrote:
Karthik S wrote:Those 13 lakh indics can and must be given Indian citizenship. IMO, any person of Indic faiths in both BD and pak must be given as a default. Don't know where you got your calculation of 3 7 crores, sounds like a strawman.
Point is this, illegal BMs, rohingyas etc must be deported. Indics in BD and pak who are here must be given citizenship ASAP.

Didn't Amit Shah say during the campaign that Hindu refugees will be given citizenship?

True but not so simple. Citizenship for illegals is opposed by the Assamese in general because they consider the Bangladeshi Bengali as much an outsider as the Bangladeshi Muslim. That presents its own problem.

Lets see what Modi/Shah/Sharma will be able to do to break the current impasse.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Sep 2019 19:41

A_Gupta wrote:On another matter - there are facts and there are narratives. Narratives give weights to facts.

<< snip >>

Further, since the main challenge to the Indian narrative comes from Pakistan, it is up to all of us to push narratives about Pakistan that require Pakistanis to defend themselves and take effort away from attacking India. We have plenty, including the treatment of Baluchistan, of the Frontier Areas, of Shias in Gilgit-Baltistan, FATF, Taliban, etc. etc.

IMHO the main challenge to Indian narrative comes from the western countries/societies themselves. So while GOI could and should do more but they will still be challenged by the western bias. GOI will have to evolve a way to deal with it.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Sep 2019 19:44

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1168794149174169600
Dr Praveen Patil @5Forty3

The fact that after more than 3 years since Ujjwala Yojana caused socio-economic disruption, poor rural women still remember Modi as "Cylinder Baba" just shows the scale of the deprivation of 6 decades of Congress-Socialist rule & the intellectual cover Elite-Lutyens provided it!

There was electricity, then there was Gas cylinder and in 2024 there will be piped drinking water to homes. Who benefits "most" from water@Home?

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Picklu » 03 Sep 2019 20:36

pankajs wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:Didn't Amit Shah say during the campaign that Hindu refugees will be given citizenship?

True but not so simple. Citizenship for illegals is opposed by the Assamese in general because they consider the Bangladeshi Bengali as much an outsider as the Bangladeshi Muslim. That presents its own problem.

Lets see what Modi/Shah/Sharma will be able to do to break the current impasse.


The problem is those Bengali Hindu refugees, Gorkhas and other non Bengali Hindus are living in Assam for generations. Considering them "outsider" is not a a trend to be encouraged.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Sep 2019 21:37

https://www.news18.com/news/india/karna ... 95941.html
After 4 Days of Questioning, ED Arrests K'taka Congress Strongman DK Shivakumar in Money Laundering Case

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 03 Sep 2019 22:12

Looks like it is real bad time for "secular" Congress politicians. One is enjoying the company of Enforcement directorate, while another just does NOT want to come out of CBI custody :lol:.
Enforcement Directorate arrests Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar
Chidambaram will continue in CBI custody till Sept. 5, says SC

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby KLNMurthy » 03 Sep 2019 22:23

pankajs wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:On another matter - there are facts and there are narratives. Narratives give weights to facts.

<< snip >>

Further, since the main challenge to the Indian narrative comes from Pakistan, it is up to all of us to push narratives about Pakistan that require Pakistanis to defend themselves and take effort away from attacking India. We have plenty, including the treatment of Baluchistan, of the Frontier Areas, of Shias in Gilgit-Baltistan, FATF, Taliban, etc. etc.

IMHO the main challenge to Indian narrative comes from the western countries/societies themselves. So while GOI could and should do more but they will still be challenged by the western bias. GOI will have to evolve a way to deal with it.


First, there should be a counter-narrative (or I should say India-owned narrative) which carries conviction with ourselves. I don't think we are there yet.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 03 Sep 2019 22:29

Sachin wrote:Looks like it is real bad time for "secular" Congress politicians. One is enjoying the company of Enforcement directorate, while another just does NOT want to come out of CBI custody :lol:.
Enforcement Directorate arrests Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar
Chidambaram will continue in CBI custody till Sept. 5, says SC

I told one of my relative before elections that IF Modi wins another term expect Damadjee to be arrested in the first 6 months of the new term. The GOI has set the pace and we are on track going by the trends.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Sep 2019 23:04

pankajs wrote:IMHO the main challenge to Indian narrative comes from the western countries/societies themselves. So while GOI could and should do more but they will still be challenged by the western bias. GOI will have to evolve a way to deal with it.


The Indian grand narrative that Rajiv Malhotra talks about is certainly up against the western countries. That is a bigger and longer effort. It does spill over into the J&K narrative; but the J&K narrative is a "smaller" one and easier to manage. That is, India's grand narrative comes up against Hegel and Max Muller and innumerable other such. The J&K narrative doesn't have that scope.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Sep 2019 03:34

Re: immigration into India -- think forward. If India Shining V2 comes about, if India is growing prosperous and faster than its neighbors, then a lot of people will want to come to India.

India can either try to block them ("build the wall") which will be largely fruitless. People will sneak in and eventually forge their credentials.

Or make it easy for people to come to work, study, etc., but make the conditions for citizen -- getting the vote -- difficult.

To make sure immigrant labor does not undercut local labor, note that you can't effectively legislate rights for anyone who is there illegally. What you want is that immigrant labor has the same bargaining rights as local labor - i.e., they can join labor unions, feel free to file complaints with the local authorities, feel free to be witnesses in court proceedings without the fear of being deported.

What you want is that everyone who comes is documented, is easily able to cross the borders. They are less likely to bring their whole family and more likely to periodically go back home. They are more likely to retire in their less expensive homeland. They are not going to get fake citizenship papers in order to vote.

This kind of "open borders" is almost a requirement if you truly believe that India that is outpacing the world. The nineteenth century nationalism won't work. Look forward.

Regarding protection of local culture and language, you can do what e.g., Denmark did recently - requiring children of immigrants to attend a certain minimum amount of Danish language instruction in pre-school, etc. Yes, if India is developing fast, it can/will provide such services.

There is a security aspect too, e.g., belligerent like Pakistan trying to sneak people across friendly borders. This is where India and its friendly neighbors need intense cooperation that "open borders" does not result in this.

If you take care of this for good times, you will also have taken care of it, for e.g., in case Bangladesh starts getting affected by climate change sea level rise.

The point is it is much better to have managed non-citizen legals who legally contribute than to have unmanaged illegals, along with whom a whole bunch of other ills arrive. E.g., illegal may not want to report a crime out of fear of deportation.

IMO, India needs to be planning this way if it truly believes in its destiny.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Lilo » 04 Sep 2019 09:43

^
India should always plan for worst case and never loose sight of it.
Worst case is another partition imposed on us where an aggressive mainority guided by a violent neckcutting ideology which can never integrate with the rest will seek to destroy and usurp .

CAB in works is already premised on that fact. So that only the economic or political migrants who are dharmically benign or who are willing to convert and leave behind their aggressive ideologies are allowed to become citizens. That stream of new citizens is sufficient for any unlikely labor shortage India may face ( here I have no option but to :rotfl: at equating the fat American or Old oirpean situation of labour shortage and transplanting it to Indian borders) - rest all can die at the border killed by overhead drones for all I care .

All this openborders utopia by people sitting secure in their vantages abroad is nonsense.
Suggest to not bring US or oirope borders politics and equate it to India.

Case in point : an old post of mine on peaceful action in ambur
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=5229&p=2181288&#p2181288
..If you are speaking of the riot in Ambur 2 years back , i know that TN police bore the brunt of it.
The TN police were chased on the highway in night by peaceful mobs and beaten on the Chennai-Bangalore National Highway.Even the SP was not spared and made to bleed on the Road.Consider the plight of the lower cadre.
TN police couldn't even protect the women police amidst them - they were grabbed by the "Tamil speaking" (Danish language classes! :lol: )pissfull mob and usual things(heard of taharrush?) expected from a pissfull mob done to them.
A new Police recruit posted in that general area recounted to me the stories later.

As usual the spark was an incident of love jihad when a young married "Tamil speaking" Hindu woman was seduced and disappeared by one "Tamil speaking" Shameel Basha leaving behind her 3 year old "still Tamil learning" son with her distraught husband .
The "Tamil speaking" Muslim was then given the third degree trying to find the woman's whereabouts and unfortunately died due to heart attack after he has been sent home.
So the thowheed declared Jihad in Ambur and went on a night long rampage blocking the arterial Highway.
Image
https://twitter.com/sarpamedha/status/8 ... 9939892224

Next time when somebody are suggested to try the phamous Ambur chicken biryani(made with love and beef fat by "Tamil speaking" Muslims of Ambur) maybe someone will think twice?
Last edited by Lilo on 04 Sep 2019 09:53, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby banrjeer » 04 Sep 2019 09:43

Picklu wrote:
banrjeer wrote:@picklu

What is CAB ? I’m sorry but I am ignorant here. Can you provide a link?

As far as NRC is concerned the outcome seems poor but perhaps the data and stats gathered can be leveraged strategically ?

All can be given citizenship but not instantaneously. Only temporary residency status should be given first. This will defang human rights busy bodies.

It can take 15 years for legit professionals to become US citizens via green card. They go thru a fully documented process which is dependent on backlog.

For refugees to India can a similar process be put in place? Credit can be based on nation building activity payment of taxes where applicable etc


CAB = Citizenship Amendment Bill

Without this, conducting NRC is meaningless. It will just cause more hurt to our own than others.

Even with this, the NRC exercise would end up being largely useless in its stated goal as shown in the current round (Will find less than 5 lakh illegal bd muslims in Assam) but some people would have chest beating satisfaction that we did something (off course in the process caused huge amount of harassment and alienation to 13+ lakh indic folks)



"In the party's election manifesto, the BJP had promised to welcome Hindu refugees and give shelter to them"

My impression of this is that the wording and premise makes it dead on arrival? It ends up hurting the very hindu refugees who it's trying to protect since it's very hard to defend and implement. If it was about a persecuted minority then the criteria can be left open. We know not all would qualify and the exceptions would actually help with the general case.

A somewhat similar path way of precedence was used for defanging article 370.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Sep 2019 18:10

Indian position on the matter is that any foreign leader can visit New Delhi on a standalone trip, without trying to hyphenate the ties.

India has, in fact, asked leaders of some other nations too not to come to New Delhi if they combined it with their trip to Pakistan.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/india-tak ... g-pakistan

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Sep 2019 20:16

https://twitter.com/raghavohri0/status/ ... 3756338182
Raghav Ohri @raghavohri0

D K Shivakumar remanded to custodial interrogation till Sep 13 !

10 days remand ...

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Sep 2019 20:34

who said that lootyens is dead :mrgreen:



EconomicTimes Verified account @EconomicTimes Sep 3

CBI tells Supreme Court that it does not want any further custody of Congress leader #PChidambaram and he should be sent to Tihar under judicial custody. Supreme Court directs Congress leader P Chidambaram to remain in CBI custody till September 5.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby pankajs » 04 Sep 2019 20:54

^^
Was expected. I did post here as soon as I heard the composition of the bench but especially the senior judge on the bench.


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