J&K Union Territory-2019

[A_Gupta]

In Pakistan-Held Kashmir, Growing Calls for Independence

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/worl ... dence.html
Important data points for reference. Surprising that the NYT published it, but their usual pro-Paki reputation makes it all the more useful.

Bah, this is going to be the core of "make J&K independent" opinion that the NYT is going to drive.

[Bart S]

^They will get nowhere with that, but the increased scrutiny on POK and Pakistan's atrocities there is welcome.

[banrjeer]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/worl ... dence.html
Important data points for reference. Surprising that the NYT published it, but their usual pro-Paki reputation makes it all the more useful.

Bah, this is going to be the core of "make J&K independent" opinion that the NYT is going to drive.

It’s stupid, pedantic like a geography lesson and poorly written.

[KLNMurthy]

Worth a read for those who aren't overtly optimistic of the picture being painted by our media that all is hunky dory.

Kashmir: The situation is abnormally ‘normal’

Yes there should not be any illusions about the valley population . But it’s a necessary evil. They need to vent and indulge in violence and evaluate where they stand over many decades it’s their karma.. does not mean others will blandly accept their tyranny.

Their vision does not go beyond the valley Maybe the valley can secede or win back aksai chin t and become a buffer state

Those of us who lived through the last third of the 20th century in India know that time & again, we had to experience draconian law & order measures far more stringent than what the pampered KV people are going through and for much longer periods. We accepted it because we knew the pattern of "people's freedom fighters" aka goondas violently shutting down shops, schools and colleges, and the administration needed time to bring things under control for ordinary folks.

Even then, it was "normal" for vested interests to vastly exaggerate and holler about draconian measures etc. Sometimes they would start rumors that government has done this or that horrible thing. So, government sources will attempt to correct the exaggerations. That is quite separate from knowing and understanding why the prohibitory measures are necessary in the first place.

Don't fall into the trap of somehow "cornering" the government because they said violence is under control and one or another instance of violence, or even official police abuse is found. Some amount of failure to control the violence will be there. Some amount of security forces' abuse will be there. And sometimes, the abusers are not made accountable. None of it means that we should allow the debate to be sidetracked from the question of why the restrictions are necessary in the first place. It's because KV civilian life is run by goondas, and people fall in line either due to conviction or due to intimidation or both.

This is the template of every single agitation or "people's struggle" in the past 50 years at least. The difference in KV is that they have the support of Pakis and "big people of the world" like NYT, Amnesty, UNHRC etc. etc. And the support of India's "White Russian" counterrevolutionaries who can't digest the idea that Modi is also a "big people" now.. That, plus the fact that the GoI acts clueless and useless from time to time, makes it harder for the authorities to handle, and also creates the illusion for the agitators and leaders that they can somehow "win."

[KLNMurthy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/worl ... dence.html
Important data points for reference. Surprising that the NYT published it, but their usual pro-Paki reputation makes it all the more useful.

Bah, this is going to be the core of "make J&K independent" opinion that the NYT is going to drive.

Yes, they are looking for the next South Sudan or East Timor. Expect them and their Indian stooges to start braying about how Czechoslovakia split up peacefully.

Their belief is that, if they shout loudly enough and often enough, India will give in.

[sudeepj]

Khaled is a fairly reasonable chap, but even here, there is a tinge of psy-ops in that '..these people are really angry, they must be appeased somehow..'. The state must ofcourse protect them from external influence, but if Kashmiris are in this soup today, its of their own doing. India and Indians dont owe Kashmiris anything over and above what they do to any other Indian. If they are fuming at how their opinions dont matter, its their own damn problem. They do matter, but they matter to the extent of 6 million / 1250 million.

You've hit the nail on the head, a bit of stockholm syndrome as far as those who were sympathetic with the separatists. Sadly, the separatists were emboldened by several state agencies (read:governors) and previous govts as a buffer between pro-India and pro-Pak sentiments. I would even go onto say, the events between 2006-2016 were squarely a failure of intelligence, both local and IB (hello hello, we know what happened here), and the MHA was caught napping or in bed with separatists. I will slightly differ on what we owe, as a matter of principle we don't owe them a dime more than anyone else, but do we want to play the equality game at the risk of them flirting with terrorism? Some TLC and cajoling might just be the balm to woo the next generation into the union, even if it takes a decade or two.

The problem masand ji is, that we are already giving them so much more that its actually 10 times more, rather than a dime more! And quite literally so! the central assistance provided to Kashmir is ten times the per capita amount provided to Bihar. After this huge amount of dole, they claim, 'no beggars in Kashmir', when really, that entire state is a beggar state.

I am sad to see the same appeasement policy as before with Modi ji saying, we need to hug every Kashmiri.. Even the ones who were cheering murders and ethnic cleansings?? Announcing 'especial NAFED' procurement for apples, moar jobs.. moar teachers.. Already, the teacher student ratio in Kashmir is something like 1:16.. Have you ever seen a scrawny protester in Kashmir? They are all well fed.. corpulent ********.

Let them know what scarcity is.. Dont rob them. Dont give them dole. Let them earn their keep.

[Bart S]

I am sad to see the same appeasement policy as before with Modi ji saying, we need to hug every Kashmiri.. Even the ones who were cheering murders and ethnic cleansings?? Announcing 'especial NAFED' procurement for apples, moar jobs.. moar teachers.. Already, the teacher student ratio in Kashmir is something like 1:16.. Have you ever seen a scrawny protester in Kashmir? They are all well fed.. corpulent ********.

Let them know what scarcity is.. Dont rob them. Dont give them dole. Let them earn their keep.

What do you expect the PM of a civilized country to say, especially in this charged environment where he is being micro-scrutinized by Pakis/Leftists and their media acolytes for anything that can be criticized or blown out of proportion? Do you want him to rant and rave like Dimran or Fawad Chaudhry?

Modi and Doval know exactly what to do and they are doing it. To quote a much cliched expression 'talk softly and carry a large stick'. As PM and statesman, he is duty bound to make such positive statements, and on the plus side those might appeal to the more sane KV folk. Those who pick up the stone or the gun will be dealt with appropriately, you can rest assure that it will not be with hugs.

[ArjunPandit]

sudeepg you are expecting jhatka while MARD are doing halal

[vijayk]

[Picklu]

It was well known to be denied but still permissions were asked. In the last couple of days, more than once, action of Pakistan has been mentioned as NOT NORMAL. Keep the wordings in mind.

I think ground is being prepared to declare Indus Water Treaty null and void as situation is not normal.

Repeating for the nth time here... IWT abrogation is toothless unless you have a way to diver the water away from Pak, which currently we don't, not to any credible degree.

Please think though all the steps till the end game for desired result.

We can not build the dams and infrastructure to divert the water without abrogating the IWT first. Check what happened in the past for ullar barrage and tulbul navigational project. Even the already built suice gates have been ordered to be closed due to the treaty commitments.

The declaration of abrogation will come first. Then the infrastructure will be built over decades. After that we will have the necessary teeth and claw.

Don't expect to have fruit before planting the tree itself. And we have to start at some point of time.

[manjgu]

Repeating for the nth time here... IWT abrogation is toothless unless you have a way to diver the water away from Pak, which currently we don't, not to any credible degree.

We can not build the dams and infrastructure to divert the water without abrogating the IWT first. Check what happened in the past for ullar barrage and tulbul navigational project. Even the already built suice gates have been ordered to be closed due to the treaty commitments.

.

in case India abrogates IWT, will not the infra developed wrt Wullar barrage/tulbul be of use to turn on the screws on pakis?? so its not necessary IMHO for IWT to be abrogated first. The infra we are building on the Jehlum,chenab, indus will be helpful to fully turn the screws. The IWT mandates water release timings, volumes, water diversion, minimum flows etc which can easily be controlled with the existing / upcoming infra ( before IWT abrogation).

[manjgu]

and this is indeed the reason that napakis are so rattled with upcoming projects on the 3 rivers allocated to pakis inspite of IWT being in force as of today.. that with these upcoming projects India has much more control over water supply into pakistan. the issue is not so much that water will flow into pakistan but when ( the timing)..which is of crucial importance.

[Sachin]

With tears in his eyes, and deep hatred on the "communal fascist forces" Zulfikar Majid of Deccan Herald report Despite militant threats, normalcy returning to Kashmir.

Hands cringing he reports..
Despite militants and stone-pelters threatening residents to observe a complete shutdown in protest of the Centre’s decision to abrogate Article 370, Kashmir is gradually returning to normalcy as most of the government offices have started functioning.

And if that is not enough, read this..
However, despite threats, the movement of private vehicles is increasing with each passing day. The attendance in government offices is improving while in courts the normal work has also resumed.

Adding insult to injury, parents collect school assignments for their children. Have things gone that bad that Kashmiriyat & Jihad-yat is not a very promising option?
However, the school and college managements, have provided the students with assignments to be completed at home. Most of the students have also submitted their forms for board exams which are likely to be held in October.

[Picklu]

We can not build the dams and infrastructure to divert the water without abrogating the IWT first. Check what happened in the past for ullar barrage and tulbul navigational project. Even the already built suice gates have been ordered to be closed due to the treaty commitments.

.

in case India abrogates IWT, will not the infra developed wrt Wullar barrage/tulbul be of use to turn on the screws on pakis?? so its not necessary IMHO for IWT to be abrogated first. The infra we are building on the Jehlum,chenab, indus will be helpful to fully turn the screws. The IWT mandates water release timings, volumes, water diversion, minimum flows etc which can easily be controlled with the existing / upcoming infra ( before IWT abrogation).

The end goal is off course to get full control of water from Indus and all its tributaries. While the current infra can be utilized to some extent for this purpose, there is a limit and beyond a point not possible with IWT existing in current form. IWT has to go (or at least modified drastically)

However, there is no exit clause on IWT. So what's the option? Well, as per international norm, any treaty can be abrogated in exceptional circumstances and we need to find such "exceptions"

Pakis not allowing us overflight, pakis not establishing trade relationship, pakis not allowing us to transport to afg and beyond are some of the points we can use to show such exceptional circumstances.

[manjgu]

sure, to get full control of water IWT has to go or modified drastically but to say that existing / upcoming infra is not useful is not right. A relative of mine is chief engineer at Pakal Dul project. he was saying once completed, by 2025/26 will help India turn on the screws substantially on napakis. the other projects as and when they fructify will royally screw the pakis. The SYL canal is another thing which could have cut off water supply to napakis. The shahpur kandi project and other numerous projects are also in the same direction of reducing water supply/controlling timing of flow.

[sooraj]

Report received from J&K HC CJ does not support claims on inability to access court there, says SC

[Peregrine]

HURRIRAT REALIZES WHICH SIDE OF HIS BREAD IS BUTTERED!

Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz signs ‘bond’ to secure release, claims Indian media - News Desk

An Indian media report claimed on Friday that at least five detained political leaders in occupied Kashmir including Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq have signed bonds to secure their release.

Mirwaiz thanks Pakistan for supporting Kashmir’s fight for freedom

The English-language daily newspaper, The Hindu, quoted a senior Indian official as saying the politicians who signed the bonds gave an undertaking that they would not indulge in any political activity after their release.

Those who signed the bonds also include two former legislators of the National Conference, one former legislator of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and a Peoples Conference leader, said the report.

All were detained under Section-107 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (Cr PC).

“If a person detained under Section-107 of the Cr PC signs a bond and then violates it, legal proceedings including arrest can be initiated. The prohibited activities include giving political speeches,” alleged the Indian official.

In a surprise move on August 5, India abrogated provisions in its constitution that gave the IOK partial autonomy and stipulated only residents could buy a property or hold government jobs.

Strict movement restrictions were imposed simultaneously, and mobile, telephone, and internet connections snapped. Since then, several political leaders in the disputed region were placed under detention and house arrest.

The Centaur Hotel in Srinagar was turned into a subsidiary jail, and as of now, at least 36 leaders, including the former bureaucrat-turned-politician Shah Faesal, are lodged there.

None of the detainees there, including Peoples Conference chairman Sajad Lone and PDP youth wing leader Waheed Para, had agreed to sign the bonds.

A shopkeeper in Srinagar said they had shut business in protest against the Indian move to revoke the special status.

Kashmiri leaders urge Pakistan, India to resume dialogue

India claimed the immediate priority was to prevent an eruption of violence in IOK valley, where more than 40,000 people have been killed since 1989.

“No militant has threatened us, we are not opening shops as a mark of protest,” said Abdul Rahim, a resident of Srinagar.

Cheers

[manjgu]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... ia-part-1/
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... ia-part-2/

[mmasand]

A pertinent question to those getting excited at the prospect of having a land border with Afganistan:

Indeed, the 44 lakh strong population of the sliver of territory called ‘Azad Kashmir’ is populated by a mix of Sudhans, Gujjars, Jats and Rajputs — a mix of martial groups who are hostile to India. The big question, of course, is whether the BJP, which is not particularly inclined towards Muslims anyway, will be happy with the addition of 65 lakh more Muslims, to the 125 lakh population of Jammu & Kashmir — of which 67 percent are Muslims.

Beyond its specious political claim on J&K, Pakistan has its military compulsions for strongly holding on to ‘Azad’ Kashmir. A look at the map shows that if India controlled the region, it would be just 35-50 kms away from Islamabad and the Pakistani heartland. For this reason alone, the Pakistan Army will strongly defend the region.

You can read the whole paper here - J&K and PoK: Why MEA Jaishankar’s comment isn’t the last word

[nam]

Not just that, capturing PoK means re-investing our "Hindenburg line" to Pak border from LC. Add to this an increased insurgency, given Pak is not going to be quite post PoK capture. Loosing thousands of more men and resources in the process.

Not mentioning the fact that half of Pak would come in to PoK, once they realize India is going to capture it. You get to become a citizen of 3 trillion economy versus a failed state, overnight!

All of these headache to get access to Afghanistan?

We are better off having PA on LC, providing out forces a constant realist training ground and keeping our politicans on the toes.

[A_Gupta]

^^^^ Keep the threat open and talk about the gains of getting PoK, including border with Afghanistan, even if India never intends to act on that threat. Like it or not, Pakistan is in a state of undeclared war with India, and being bristly with all kinds of threats to Pakistan is the proper course for India. If they put a rest to the jihad, then will be the time to withdraw threats.

[nam]

Ofcourse, the threat should be constant, so that Pak is always on edge. We don't have to physically capture PoK.

[srin]

Feasibility of getting PoK is a secondary consideration tactically. The PoK talk has put TSP on a strategic defensive and unable to react. Any reaction destroys their screwed up economy.
I think this is the first offensive step we have taken in a long while.
Next should be IWT.

[williams]

Feasibility of getting PoK is a secondary consideration tactically. The PoK talk has put TSP on a strategic defensive and unable to react. Any reaction destroys their screwed up economy.
I think this is the first offensive step we have taken in a long while.
Next should be IWT.

So all the noise TSP is making is to make sure their Abduls can be emotionally managed while eating grass. If you want the Pakis to be reasonable, the elite class need to be hurt. And that can be done only in two ways. We can either make sure their elite class is rendered public humiliation or really hurt their economic fiefdoms. Any overt action on IWT will help them manage their Abduls even more and we should not help them that way. We can do many many things covertly without feeding their emotions. In fact, any overt operation should have that public humiliation effect. If not we should do it covertly.

[Picklu]

Feasibility of getting PoK is a secondary consideration tactically. The PoK talk has put TSP on a strategic defensive and unable to react. Any reaction destroys their screwed up economy.
I think this is the first offensive step we have taken in a long while.
Next should be IWT.

So all the noise TSP is making is to make sure their Abduls can be emotionally managed while eating grass. If you want the Pakis to be reasonable, the elite class need to be hurt. And that can be done only in two ways. We can either make sure their elite class is rendered public humiliation or really hurt their economic fiefdoms. Any overt action on IWT will help them manage their Abduls even more and we should not help them that way. We can do many many things covertly without feeding their emotions. In fact, any overt operation should have that public humiliation effect. If not we should do it covertly.

It may appear counter intuitive but doing lesser things overtly gives better result than doing greater things covertly. This is one of the main reasons (other being weapon sale) why US, USSR and Oiros advert their weapons capability and kill record instead of keeping the specifications secret. The psyops effect. Perception is more influential than reality and hence needs at least equal amount of resource to manage perception as reality.

The ability of defiance depends on moral and for better result we need to sap the moral of the enemy, which we did only in 1971. In all other times like 48, 65 and even 2002, we have done equally well militarily but there were no such overt surrender and hence the enemy lived to fight another day.

The only time we shattered their moral were in 71 and they were quiet for sometime but later got emboldened by Chinese nuclear umbrella.

This is the reason why I am so critical on Feb 27 air operations. We did great militarily but not overtly and hence the napakis are jumping up and down on every media. Had we delivered a bigger thappad, their opposition of article 370 would have much subdued. You can get a similarity in the behavior of paki cricket fans during world cup in the last 5 years, before and after their winning champions trophy beating us in final.

I would say, managing paki diplomatic riposte on article 370 is equally import, if not more, than managing their military riposte via terrorism. By giving them oxygen on Feb 27, we have emboldened them to push diplomatically against article 370 in greater vigor. It has also emboldened our desi Jaichands in Kashmir by making them think that Pakis are our equal militarily and hence they are being vocal about their preference for independence with impunity with the courage that pakis will support them and will be able to defend against us. It is a wrong perception on their part of course but as it has been proven again and again that perception, not reality, molds the action.

[UlanBatori]

we had to experience draconian law & order measures far more stringent than what the pampered KV people are going through and for much longer periods. We accepted it

Consider that they are screaming about the lack of MOBILE INTERNET ACCESS. Didn't hit me for a long time because I don't even think of that. I have never had that.

[UlanBatori]

Report received from J&K HC CJ does not support claims on inability to access court there, says SC

This is interesting. Because what Hizzoner said, I remember very clearly. He said it would be a very serious thing if in fact ppl did not have access to the high court. He said he would go himself to Cash More to verify the reality.
And... Hizzoner said, ominously: IF THIS IS UNTRUE, THERE HAS TO BE ACCOUNABILITY...
And they DID demand a report. Like the SIT report on NaMo-Guj blahblahblah.
Clearly, at least some in the Court are sick of the lies. Maybe we will see some "accountability" applied to the musharrafs of the Betishunners.

[NRao]

A pertinent question to those getting excited at the prospect of having a land border with Afganistan:

Indeed, the 44 lakh strong population of the sliver of territory called ‘Azad Kashmir’ is populated by a mix of Sudhans, Gujjars, Jats and Rajputs — a mix of martial groups who are hostile to India. The big question, of course, is whether the BJP, which is not particularly inclined towards Muslims anyway, will be happy with the addition of 65 lakh more Muslims, to the 125 lakh population of Jammu & Kashmir — of which 67 percent are Muslims.

Beyond its specious political claim on J&K, Pakistan has its military compulsions for strongly holding on to ‘Azad’ Kashmir. A look at the map shows that if India controlled the region, it would be just 35-50 kms away from Islamabad and the Pakistani heartland. For this reason alone, the Pakistan Army will strongly defend the region.

You can read the whole paper here - J&K and PoK: Why MEA Jaishankar’s comment isn’t the last word

For decades I have been in favor of doing away with maintaining statistics on religious distributions.

I think Bharat, nationally, should do away with this specific stat once PoK is dismantled.


On the fear of other Pakis using PoK to become Indian citizens is an intriguing thought. Could happen. But then if it does, then I think so will the disintegration of Pakistan as we know it.

Too many moving parts.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/y ... 2019-09-20
You were sadder over Chandrayaan-2 than over Kashmir: Iltija Mufti
Former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti's daughter Iltija criticised the lack of outrage over the situation in Kashmir, where restrictions have been placed after the government abrogated Article 370 in the state.
India Today Web Desk, New Delhi, September 20, 2019.
Former Jammu and Kashmir CM Mehbooba Mufti's daughter Iltija criticised the lack of outrage over the situation in Kashmir, where restrictions have been placed after the government scrapped the state's special status.
"You showed more outrage... were more sad [sic] over Chandrayaan-2... than over Kashmir," Iltija said, referring to the Chandrayaan-2 mission's lander Vikram that went out of contact during its landing on the Moon and has not been heard from since.
......
____________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/not- ... 190920.htm
'Not every Kashmiri a stone pelter or terrorist'
September 20, 2019 22:50 IST
Average Kashmiri views India as "occupational force", Iltija Mufti, daughter of former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, said on Friday.
Speaking at the India Today Conclave, Mufti also said that rest of India mourned when Chandrayaan 2 failed, but it has shown very little empathy for the plight of Kashmiris.
"Kashmiris feel a deep sense of shock and betrayal. I don't know how you are going to undo the damage and the pain you have inflicted on the Kashmiri people," Iltija, whose mother is under preventive detention since the abrogation of Article 370, said.
"You (rest of India) showed more collective outrage when Chandrayaan 2 failed, you showed more feelings when it failed...but you don't feel empathy for the nine million (Kashmiri) people," Iltija said, referring to India's moon mission and the failure of its lander to maintain communication link. Asked what does the average Kashmiri want, Iltija said, "The average Kashmiri -- I know this is going to land me in lot of trouble -- but the average Kashmiri views India as an occupational force. Most of them are not even thinking about Pakistan, they want freedom. There, I said it, but it's the truth."
.....
Gautam
PS: How convenient it is to forget ethnic cleansing.

[sudeepj]

High time a run poorie is given a dose for providing a platform to the chusti family.

[Vips]

A pertinent question to those getting excited at the prospect of having a land border with Afganistan:



You can read the whole paper here - J&K and PoK: Why MEA Jaishankar’s comment isn’t the last word

For decades I have been in favor of doing away with maintaining statistics on religious distributions.

I think Bharat, nationally, should do away with this specific stat once PoK is dismantled.


On the fear of other Pakis using PoK to become Indian citizens is an intriguing thought. Could happen. But then if it does, then I think so will the disintegration of Pakistan as we know it.

Too many moving parts.

There is a way to determine who were resident in POK on a particular date. The non kashmiris would be easy to identify. I do not think Porkis would dare to enter India masquerading as residents of POK if they know they will be marked out and dealt with.

[Supratik]

It will be pretty easy in GB as all non-local language speaker Sunnis are Pak settlers. AJK will be slightly more difficult unless there is some NRC like record. Secondly there are about a million Hindu-Sikh refugees from AJK. They may want to return to their homeland. Third no 35A. So mothing will prevent others from settling there. I will be more worried about Kerala than J&K.

[sanjaykumar]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1505859/the-filth-inside

Sounds like something out of the Bible. Puts Niazi’s solicitous tears for Kashmir in perspective. I believe Pakistanis indeed have a great love for KM, a self sacrificing love.

[Deans]

High time a run poorie is given a dose for providing a platform to the chusti family.

Yes, I'm surprised at the level of anti India reporting by IT, on Kashmir these days.
W.t.f. should the Mufti kid be invited to whatever India Today was organising.

[mmasand]

High time a run poorie is given a dose for providing a platform to the chusti family.

Yes, I'm surprised at the level of anti India reporting by IT, on Kashmir these days.
W.t.f. should the Mufti kid be invited to whatever India Today was organising.

Yes, Poorie aside, I think it's good that she was invited. No one can accuse us of stifling voices and in contrast to Pakistan, one can criticise the policies of GOI. She has been allowed to visit her mother who is enjoying the facilities and rich wazwan of Centaur resort whilst Mohsin Dar and Ali Wazir vanished off the surface of the nation. This sits well against enforced disappearances by TSP.

[UlanBatori]

Day 45 over. Situation so naaarmal that it has disappeared from news.

[manjgu]

So all the noise TSP is making is to make sure their Abduls can be emotionally managed while eating grass. If you want the Pakis to be reasonable, the elite class need to be hurt. And that can be done only in two ways. We can either make sure their elite class is rendered public humiliation or really hurt their economic fiefdoms. Any overt action on IWT will help them manage their Abduls even more and we should not help them that way. We can do many many things covertly without feeding their emotions. In fact, any overt operation should have that public humiliation effect. If not we should do it covertly.

It may appear counter intuitive but doing lesser things overtly gives better result than doing greater things covertly. This is one of the main reasons (other being weapon sale) why US, USSR and Oiros advert their weapons capability and kill record instead of keeping the specifications secret. The psyops effect. Perception is more influential than reality and hence needs at least equal amount of resource to manage perception as reality.

The ability of defiance depends on moral and for better result we need to sap the moral of the enemy, which we did only in 1971. In all other times like 48, 65 and even 2002, we have done equally well militarily but there were no such overt surrender and hence the enemy lived to fight another day.

The only time we shattered their moral were in 71 and they were quiet for sometime but later got emboldened by Chinese nuclear umbrella.

This is the reason why I am so critical on Feb 27 air operations. We did great militarily but not overtly and hence the napakis are jumping up and down on every media. Had we delivered a bigger thappad, their opposition of article 370 would have much subdued. You can get a similarity in the behavior of paki cricket fans during world cup in the last 5 years, before and after their winning champions trophy beating us in final.

I would say, managing paki diplomatic riposte on article 370 is equally import, if not more, than managing their military riposte via terrorism. By giving them oxygen on Feb 27, we have emboldened them to push diplomatically against article 370 in greater vigor. It has also emboldened our desi Jaichands in Kashmir by making them think that Pakis are our equal militarily and hence they are being vocal about their preference for independence with impunity with the courage that pakis will support them and will be able to defend against us. It is a wrong perception on their part of course but as it has been proven again and again that perception, not reality, molds the action.

well the Pakis have spun 1971 as a victory as they have spun all military confrontations with India. 99% of Pakis think they won at kargil and it was Clinton who saved India from certain defeat!!! So I dont agree with ur assessment. When a army owns a country, they have to work extra hard to preserve their H&D. We should be doing things both covertly and overtly to the maximum. If u had bombed balakote with high explosives, they would have shown some other place as the madrassa etc etc. We must as a country have only objective, to ensure breakup of Pakistan and pursue it with single minded focus. Do all that is to be done covertly and overtly.

[Shaktimaan]

Every day I can see videos posted by journalists (mostly Kashmiri Pandits) from Srinagar. Traffic is normal, some shops are open, there are plenty of roadside vendors conducting business. Hospitals are open and crowded.

The claims of curfew etc are complete nonsense. I feel that the critical period has passed off successfully. Now is the time to give the Kashmiris a glimpse of Vikaas by Modi and Law-and-order by Shah.

Once the JCBs start digging, recruitment drives start hiring and tourists start coming back to the Valley, we are on our way to complete normalcy. Politicians, being a generally slimy breed, will come over with promises of relevance and money. The implacable separatists are welcome to cry and complain as they always have but they will be outnumbered.

[Deans]

Every day I can see videos posted by journalists (mostly Kashmiri Pandits) from Srinagar. Traffic is normal, some shops are open, there are plenty of roadside vendors conducting business. Hospitals are open and crowded.

The claims of curfew etc are complete nonsense. I feel that the critical period has passed off successfully. Now is the time to give the Kashmiris a glimpse of Vikaas by Modi and Law-and-order by Shah.

Once the JCBs start digging, recruitment drives start hiring and tourists start coming back to the Valley, we are on our way to complete normalcy. .

Factually, only 8 of the 200 police stations in J&K have some kind of restrictions on movement. That does not by any stretch of imagination
constitute a lock-down. Data on goods transported, patients visiting hospitals etc suggest that there is no problem with movement of good in the valley.
My view is that we should now call the bluff of some of the political prisoners and release them. They might soon feel they were safer in the hotels they were `imprisoned' in. While I would leave restoration of internet/ mobile to the judgement of our security forces, I don't think we now have much to lose by these services resuming.
I believe though that we are looking at `normalcy' through the wrong prism. The KM's are looking at some sort of satyagraha (which has worked in he past) hoping that their non cooperation (no students in school / shops closed etc) will being some sort of concession. They should be ignored much like its best to ignore the tantrum of a spoilt kid. our stand should simply be that there is no restriction on the movement of people, goods and data and security forces will ensure safety, It is now for the Kashmiris to decide what to do. If they wish to continue sulking and destroy their economic prospects, so be it.

[Picklu]

It may appear counter intuitive but doing lesser things overtly gives better result than doing greater things covertly. This is one of the main reasons (other being weapon sale) why US, USSR and Oiros advert their weapons capability and kill record instead of keeping the specifications secret. The psyops effect. Perception is more influential than reality and hence needs at least equal amount of resource to manage perception as reality.

The ability of defiance depends on moral and for better result we need to sap the moral of the enemy, which we did only in 1971. In all other times like 48, 65 and even 2002, we have done equally well militarily but there were no such overt surrender and hence the enemy lived to fight another day.

The only time we shattered their moral were in 71 and they were quiet for sometime but later got emboldened by Chinese nuclear umbrella.

This is the reason why I am so critical on Feb 27 air operations. We did great militarily but not overtly and hence the napakis are jumping up and down on every media. Had we delivered a bigger thappad, their opposition of article 370 would have much subdued. You can get a similarity in the behavior of paki cricket fans during world cup in the last 5 years, before and after their winning champions trophy beating us in final.

I would say, managing paki diplomatic riposte on article 370 is equally import, if not more, than managing their military riposte via terrorism. By giving them oxygen on Feb 27, we have emboldened them to push diplomatically against article 370 in greater vigor. It has also emboldened our desi Jaichands in Kashmir by making them think that Pakis are our equal militarily and hence they are being vocal about their preference for independence with impunity with the courage that pakis will support them and will be able to defend against us. It is a wrong perception on their part of course but as it has been proven again and again that perception, not reality, molds the action.

well the Pakis have spun 1971 as a victory as they have spun all military confrontations with India.

I am fairly informed on Ind-Paki war and I have not come across anywhere pakis have claimed '71 as victory. Even if one or two such sample exists (you can never be sure of lal topi antics), from most of their own accounts, 1971 is an overwhelming public shame for them and they are hell bent to take revenge on us.

99% of Pakis think they won at kargil and it was Clinton who saved India from certain defeat!!!

Pakis have span Kargil as victory as mentioned by myself (I quote my own "In all other times like 48, 65 and even 2002, we have done equally well militarily but there were no such overt surrender and hence the enemy lived to fight another day. "), so not sure what you are disagreeing with. It would not have been easy for them to do had we overtly taken over some of their populated areas post Kargil, btw.

So I dont agree with ur assessment.

I am not advocating stopping covert action, I am advocating along with covert, more overt action which we lack as of now.

Our previous covert actions have not yielded better behavior from them.

What has changed recently is our "overt claim" of action as surgical strike and balakot. Even for these actions, visible overt proof is lacking IMHO (Again, not saying they didn't happen but pointing out the lack of undeniable unrefutable proof to really rub their nose in overtly and IAF agrees btw, as their own post action assessment identified this area as their shortcoming). So, again not sure what and why you disagree. Do you think we do not need to hit them overtly? Or our current overt(minuscule) actions are sufficient and no need for any improvement?

When a army owns a country, they have to work extra hard to preserve their H&D.

Here you are actually agreeing with my point that hitting them overt will give bigger and better result. Because it will make their work to preserve H&D that much hard.

We should be doing things both covertly and overtly to the maximum.

Agree. However my point is our overt action is far far lagging compared to our covert action and we need to improve in this area. Killing them covertly does not cause any problem for them as they have a fairly large uneducated suicidal young male population to replace any loss.

If u had bombed balakote with high explosives, they would have shown some other place as the madrassa etc etc.

How easily pakis would have been able to spin had we used a bomb to flatten the building? While they can say something else is the madrasa, they can't deny that we targeted one of their building and bombed it to smithereens. They can't say we dropped bomb hastily on some tree and ran away, right?

Let me quote IAF's own assessment report here

The choice of the weapon — i.e. the Spice bomb that penetrates a target killing people inside rather than over a fragmentation weapon — was also seen as a negative given that the IAF did not have much evidence by way of pictures to prove that the Balakot strikes actually took place, the IAF report said. A fragmentation bomb would have flattened the structures that would have been easier to present as evidence, it said. This comes in the face of questions being raised in the international media about the efficacy of the IAF strikes given satellite pictures that showed that the structures the IAF said they had hit in Balakot, were seen to be standing intact.

We must as a country have only objective, to ensure breakup of Pakistan and pursue it with single minded focus. Do all that is to be done covertly and overtly.

Without breaking the moral of the enemy there is no way to defeat them. Dropping nukes on Japan didn't cause significant military destruction, just destroyed their will to fight anymore.
Near home, in 1971, the the action that caused immediate surrender of paki forces in east pakistan were bombing of governor's house; again, it didn't degrade them militarily, it just exposed their inability to protect any area controlled by them and effected enough browning of pants to sign the surrender document on the dotted line.

Only in total war, you get a chance to annihilate the military of the opponent and total war is not going to happen anywhere in globe anytime soon.