Cain Marko wrote:
pankajs wrote:"supplies etc from NATO" is Dead on arrival. How will NATO get supplies to India in Afghanistan? via Bakistan?
1. It is unthinkable that bakis will allow India, that is solely in Afghanistan to defeat baki proxy & plan, to be supplied via it territory.
2. NEVER trust a logistic chain that you cannot fully control or replace.
3. Bunnies and others cannot be defeated in Afghanistan, they have to be defeated in Bakistan. US failed because if failed to take the fight to bakistan.
Sorry - I should've made my post more clear.
When I said supplies via NATO, I meant paid for by them or the UN or whatever, "coalition of the willing". India cannot be expected to bear the burden of supplies and costs.
Wrt 1&2 above: The TSP will have no say in this whatsoever. India could do this on its own via Iran
while the US looks away. ORTrump brokers a deal where India gets a corridor via GB
. That way he will earn his INternational Nehru Peace Award and Camp David moment all at once.
#3 Bunnies et al., will be defeated by Afghanistan
in Pakistan. India's job will be to secure current strongholds and centers of power for present Afghan govt. And of course to provide support to warring Afghanis who want to chase the bunnies in TSP. In the meanwhile, India will consolidate in GB, encourage Baluchis to do the same as the Afghans. All in all a real pinch for the rascals in Islamabad.
1. The issue wrt a Logistic supply chain via Iran is that we will be hostage to the Iranian objectives in Afghanistan and beyond. Iran has its own idea about Afghanistan and Iran is not like other ME countries. It is willing and able to press its views and advantages rather forcefully. Saudi/America/Israel/etc can vouch for Iran's independence and tenacity.
2. Not sure how persuasive Trump can be with Bakistan to hand over GB to India. You realize that it will mean a loss of direct road access to China and India's direct access to Afghanistan and its western border, two of its greatest fears.
For a route to Afghanistan via GB, India will have to fight it out with Bakistan and possibly China. Why China? Because with India in control of GB it will mean a loss of China's land access to the Arabian sea and an direct entry of India into Afghanistan where the Chinese have plans. Kabab me haddi.
3. Assuming India has capture GB after fending off both Bakistan and China, we have to find a workable route to Afghanistan. The thing is GB is highly mountainous with very few viable path through the area. Remember the path has to be cross into Afghanistan across the GB/Wakhan border. It cannot be a India-Bakistan-Wakhan or a India-China-Wakhan crossing.
Roads on paper are no good. I would suggest proponents of this strategy to check the maps and suggest a probable path. It should be a learning experience for sure no matter what the outcome. There are a couple of other question on this very topic that I had jotted down a while back in another post. Linking viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7757&start=1680#p2377907
Now consider other factors.
4. US may not be ready to let go of the bakis. Othewise, they would have taken the fight directly or or encouraged Afghan forces to go after the bunnies in bakistan. This inspite of suffering quite a number of casualties at the hands of baki backed bunnies. That is very suggestive.
IF my reading of the US-Baki relationship is correct, it is likely that the US will apply its heavy thumb to tilt the scale in favor of bakis on our GB plans.
At the very least, the US/NATO simply refuse to bankroll the Indian play in GB and Afghanistan. Then what? Is India willing to build through GB to Afghanistan and defend Afghanistan on its own money?
5. There is another interesting bit (fact/analysis/whatever) on Afghanistan from while back. I heard that Najibulla would have survived but for stoppage of funds from USSR/Russia. While the payment was prompt, the Afghan government forces kept Kabul protected and with that Najibulla regimen.
Perhaps the situation is the same at present. US might pull out but keep funding the Afghan forces and thus keep bunnies out of Kabul. Americans have trained Afghan forces and they should know. Why give money to India and bring it in when the same money could keep Kabul from falling to the bunnies.