China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 02 Oct 2019 09:37

PLA troops now have QR codes besides their name. whats that about? link:https://twitter.com/iammarkobabic/statu ... 8157195276

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 02 Oct 2019 12:52

AdityaM wrote:China's High-Speed Drone Is Rocket-Powered And All About Doing What Satellites Can't

Some amazing pics at https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/11790 ... 20384?s=21

What is the 2 man open roof helicopter like thing. Also any idea about the bulky torpedo like weapon

(Don’t know how to post twitter pics)

The 2 man helicopter thing is an autogyro. Very interesting flying machine, I had asked why it is not popular to aero geeks and the answer is it neither has the hovering ability of a heli nor the efficiency of a fixed wing. However its main advantage is that it is safer and easier to fly than both helis and fixed wing and does not need high amounts of training
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogyro

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 02 Oct 2019 13:05

Watch the recording of Jaishankar ji's CSIS interaction. One of the questions was from a Chinese reporter asking specifically what he thought of the parade, and his answer was dismissive in a subtle and sophisticated way that would really have caused Chinese butthurt. Basically the entire room laughed at it.

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 Oct 2019 14:28

The chit that interest me.

DF-17 HGV/Carrier

New Hypersonic Delivery vehicle/Target drone?

More X-47- and Reaper-type UAVs

Unmanned submersible

Z-20 CopyHawk (it is supposed to be their new high altitude helo, we might see it in numbers along border; photobombed by J-20)

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 Oct 2019 14:48

One more that I found interesting, the H-6N. It has a recessed belly cavity supposedly for a ballistic missile and pylons for AShMs/LACMs.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Oct 2019 19:26

Bart S wrote:Watch the recording of Jaishankar ji's CSIS interaction. One of the questions was from a Chinese reporter asking specifically what he thought of the parade, and his answer was dismissive in a subtle and sophisticated way that would really have caused Chinese butthurt. Basically the entire room laughed at it.

what did he say?

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 02 Oct 2019 20:34

ArjunPandit wrote:
Bart S wrote:Watch the recording of Jaishankar ji's CSIS interaction. One of the questions was from a Chinese reporter asking specifically what he thought of the parade, and his answer was dismissive in a subtle and sophisticated way that would really have caused Chinese butthurt. Basically the entire room laughed at it.
what did he say?

You will have to look it up,I don’t recall the exact words and it would not do it justice to paraphrase. It is during the last 5-10 mins of the video.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 03 Oct 2019 18:25

ArjunPandit wrote:
Bart S wrote:Watch the recording of Jaishankar ji's CSIS interaction. One of the questions was from a Chinese reporter asking specifically what he thought of the parade, and his answer was dismissive in a subtle and sophisticated way that would really have caused Chinese butthurt. Basically the entire room laughed at it.
what did he say?

https://youtu.be/k1NtMak0T_k

Question at 49:30
His Answer at 52:10

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 03 Oct 2019 23:07

Thanks a lot.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 04 Oct 2019 12:05

How credible is this blog ?

China hacked Pentagon to ensure only incompetent officers get promoted

The United States has charged a senior officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with orchestrating decades of cyber attacks against US agencies intended to destroy the military talent management system from within.

“The Chinese basically built an algorithm to identify toxic leaders and hacked HR to put them on the fast track to becoming generals and admirals,” said an intelligence official familiar with the Chinese efforts. “It could take us years to recover from this.”

According to an FBI investigation, Sr. Col. Cha Buduo coordinated with the Chinese Ministry of State Security and a Chinese-based hacking group known as APT4 to attack U.S. Army Human Resources Command, the Air Force Personnel Center, and U.S. Navy and Marine Corps human resource activities. Their objectives included encouraging the most talented junior officers to resign, preventing the promotion of officers with advanced degrees, selecting toxic leaders for senior commands and promoting the most egotistical and venal officers to the flag rank.

Others have pushed back on the FBI’s conclusions, however.

“I ran the numbers and I don’t see it,” said John Martinet, the chief of analysis at U.S. Army Human Resources Command.”The algorithm the Chinese built to promote toxic leaders doesn’t produce statistically different results from typical promotion Army promotion boards.

“The main difference is actually that the supposedly malicious code improves diversity outcomes. We might keep using it.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing denied that China is involved. In a statement, a spokesman called the US indictment “an absurd attempt to blame America’s inevitable decline on an imaginary enemy.”

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 04 Oct 2019 13:29

That later version of H6 seem to be the inspiration of Prof Prodyut Das and his dreams of re-engined Canberras

Manish_P wrote:How credible is this blog ?

China hacked Pentagon to ensure only incompetent officers get promoted

The United States has charged a senior officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with orchestrating decades of cyber attacks against US agencies intended to destroy the military talent management system from within.

Wait, the surprise is that a government department inside a democratic country has a screwed up talent management system? Whatever the chinese did, would have inadvertently cleared up the existing morass of bad promotions.

(That blog does not seem to add up)

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 04 Oct 2019 15:30

Manish_P wrote:How credible is this blog ?

China hacked Pentagon to ensure only incompetent officers get promoted

The United States has charged a senior officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with orchestrating decades of cyber attacks against US agencies intended to destroy the military talent management system from within.

“The Chinese basically built an algorithm to identify toxic leaders and hacked HR to put them on the fast track to becoming generals and admirals,” said an intelligence official familiar with the Chinese efforts. “It could take us years to recover from this.”

According to an FBI investigation, Sr. Col. Cha Buduo coordinated with the Chinese Ministry of State Security and a Chinese-based hacking group known as APT4 to attack U.S. Army Human Resources Command, the Air Force Personnel Center, and U.S. Navy and Marine Corps human resource activities. Their objectives included encouraging the most talented junior officers to resign, preventing the promotion of officers with advanced degrees, selecting toxic leaders for senior commands and promoting the most egotistical and venal officers to the flag rank.

Others have pushed back on the FBI’s conclusions, however.

“I ran the numbers and I don’t see it,” said John Martinet, the chief of analysis at U.S. Army Human Resources Command.”The algorithm the Chinese built to promote toxic leaders doesn’t produce statistically different results from typical promotion Army promotion boards.

“The main difference is actually that the supposedly malicious code improves diversity outcomes. We might keep using it.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing denied that China is involved. In a statement, a spokesman called the US indictment “an absurd attempt to blame America’s inevitable decline on an imaginary enemy.”

Who the hell on a military forum still falls for duffelblog.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 04 Oct 2019 17:37

Hence posted in the China Mil Watch thread

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 Oct 2019 06:46

LakshmanPST wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote: what did he say?
https://youtu.be/k1NtMak0T_k

Question at 49:30
His Answer at 52:10

"I'm parade person. I watched a lot of parades. My father organized parades." The whole room laughed.

LOL

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 Oct 2019 06:47

hnair wrote:That later version of H6 seem to be the inspiration of Prof Prodyut Das and his dreams of re-engined Canberras

LOL.

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 Oct 2019 06:50

Manish_P wrote:How credible is this blog ?

China hacked Pentagon to ensure only incompetent officers get promoted

The United States has charged a senior officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with orchestrating decades of cyber attacks against US agencies intended to destroy the military talent management system from within.

“The Chinese basically built an algorithm to identify toxic leaders and hacked HR to put them on the fast track to becoming generals and admirals,” said an intelligence official familiar with the Chinese efforts. “It could take us years to recover from this.”

According to an FBI investigation, Sr. Col. Cha Buduo coordinated with the Chinese Ministry of State Security and a Chinese-based hacking group known as APT4 to attack U.S. Army Human Resources Command, the Air Force Personnel Center, and U.S. Navy and Marine Corps human resource activities. Their objectives included encouraging the most talented junior officers to resign, preventing the promotion of officers with advanced degrees, selecting toxic leaders for senior commands and promoting the most egotistical and venal officers to the flag rank.

...

“The main difference is actually that the supposedly malicious code improves diversity outcomes. We might keep using it.”

Was that from the chinis or the Democrats?

LOL.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 05 Oct 2019 08:38

Manish_P wrote:How credible is this blog ?

China hacked Pentagon to ensure only incompetent officers get promoted

The United States has charged a senior officer in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with orchestrating decades of cyber attacks against US agencies intended to destroy the military talent management system from within.

“The Chinese basically built an algorithm to identify toxic leaders and hacked HR to put them on the fast track to becoming generals and admirals,” said an intelligence official familiar with the Chinese efforts. “It could take us years to recover from this.”

According to an FBI investigation, Sr. Col. Cha Buduo
.........

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing denied that China is involved. In a statement, a spokesman called the US indictment “an absurd attempt to blame America’s inevitable decline on an imaginary enemy.”

Creative writing!

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 Oct 2019 14:41

Copy Hawk:

The original:

Pretty much the same except for the ugly nose:

In operation after 30 years of reverse-engineering the S-70C:

Should be coming to a mountain range near India:

As Cheen's "new" gen high altitude helo:

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 05 Oct 2019 14:46

^^^ that 'ugly' nose probably houses a weather radar , which is essential for a truly all weather helicopter, especially in mountain terrain.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Oct 2019 15:30

^^^ True but the original has a weather radar too and I believe it designed such that the aircraft kept it in a nice unintrusive place. If you are copying something, you should keep the aesthetics. This is like putting a big clown nose on Scarlett Johansen. lol

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Oct 2019 15:48

Smooth Manifold on DFI did a great job on the parade with pictures of lots of ground vehicles that watchers tend to skip over for the aircraft and missiles.

He posted these which illustrated the who parade on the ground and in the air:

kit · Post by **kit** » 06 Oct 2019 16:21

Woah !!.. havent seen a pic like the one above in BRF before

, tilted my comp screen to get a better dekko

chola · Post by **chola** » 09 Oct 2019 15:59

The Copy Hawk up close.

Fascinated by this ancient but "new" RE project. The placement of everything is the same as the S-70 but a little different. Our $2.6B buy of the MH-60R has me wondering what variants of the thing they will come up with. There will definitely be a naval version. They lengthened their 052D destroyer just for this aircraft.

chola · Post by **chola** » 12 Oct 2019 12:34

And here it is. First clear picture of naval CopyHawk -- Copy Seahawk. Note the same positioning of double rear wheel.

They will pump this thing out in many variants without doubt.

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Oct 2019 18:51

https://www.janes.com/article/91788/chi ... ire-system

The Z-20 tactical helicopter is the first Chinese-produced rotorcraft to incorporate fly-by-wire flight controls, according to a 7 October report in the state-owned Global Times newspaper, citing an interview with Z-20 pilot Song Xinning broadcast by state television CCTV.

The Z-20, which made its official public debut in a fly-past during the People's Republic of China's National Day Parade in Beijing on 1 October, is assessed to have entered service with the PLA Ground Force (PLAGF) by May 2019. It is a medium-lift helicopter in the 10-tonne class that is very similar in appearance to the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk.

Although fly-by-wire systems are widely used in fixed-wing aircraft, they have not been widely adopted for rotorcraft. That said, the first fly-by-wire production helicopter was the NHIndustries NH90, which first entered service in 2006 with the German Army, but subsequently no other US or European helicopters in large-scale production have taken this route.

A 2008 upgrade programme for the Black Hawk included the adoption of fly-by-wire but this was subsequently dropped to reduce cost and implementation timescales. However, the technology has resurfaced, replacing the mechanical flight control systems in an early production Black Hawk airframe that is now being used for the Optionally Piloted Vehicle (OPV) development programme of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

Initial piloted test flights took place in May 2019 and the programme anticipates fully autonomous flights, without pilots, in 2020.

The Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion heavy-lift helicopter, which is the replacement for the CH-53E Super Stallion used by the US Marine Corps, will incorporate fly-by-wire.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Oct 2019 20:49

The V-280 is also expected to demonstrate unmanned autonomous flight in the next few months but I guess it could be argued that it’s not a helicopter.

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 Oct 2019 11:28

Intel tweets: the Copy Seahawk is called the Z-20F.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDei ... 7613623296

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
Well ... here it is, the Z-20F.

---

Rick Joe
@RickJoe_PLART
So it seems like Z-20F really does have a belly radar array as well as two conformal cheek/side arrays.

Interesting radar arrangement; different to most ASW helicopters which have a single large belly radar instead.

Conversation

Cirque/シルク @ ソウルエアショー遠征予定
@CirqueduCiel
また加筆します。
よく見ると、今後はきっと対潜哨戒型が出るはずですが、この子は多分MH-60Sと同じクラスの多用途・補給支援ヘリだと思いますね。
---
Google translated from Japanese:

If you look closely, the anti-submarine patrol type will surely appear in the future, but I think this child is probably a multi-purpose and replenishment support helicopter of the same class as the MH-60S

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 15 Oct 2019 04:59

More details on the Copy Hawk

More details emerge about China's Z-20 Copy Hawk helicopter

Chinese state-owned media have released more details about the Z-20 helicopter operated by the People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF).

Reports by the Global Times newspaper highlighted that the engines installed in the Z-20 provide sufficient power for the aircraft to perform well at high altitudes, and stated that the Z-20 design incorporates "many technologies that should be considered advanced in the world, including active vibration control, fly-by-wire, low-noise design for rotor and the high-performance aerodynamic design of the rotor".

The reports, which were published in the context of the fifth biennial China Helicopter Exposition held in Tianjin from 10-13 October - where the Z-20 was a key exhibit - followed the first public appearance of the Z-20 at China's National Day Parade on 1 October.

A 1,600 kW turboshaft engine displayed at the Tianjin exhibition is believed to be the type that powers the twin-engined Z-20. A display board accompanying the exhibited engine noted that it is suitable for medium and large helicopters. No designation was given to this engine, although it is thought to be the WZ-10.

The performance of the engine, which is claimed to have been developed independently, is reportedly comparable with those produced by leading international manufacturers.

No further information was released about the active vibration control system, nor the rotor design features. Images indicate that a de-icing system is integrated into the main rotor blades, which will enhance the helicopter's all-weather capabilities.

The appearance of the Z-20 at the Tianjin exhibition, in both static and flying displays, has resulted in many high-quality photographs appearing in Chinese online forums, providing details not previously available of the aircraft. These show that the aircraft is equipped with a self-protection suite comprising a missile approach warning system featuring infra-red and laser warning sensors, as well as flare/chaff dispensers.

chola · Post by **chola** » 15 Oct 2019 10:10

The Copy Hawk and the original:

Copy Hawk's Army/Navy differences:

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 15 Oct 2019 10:23

what is the round turret just behind the engine exhaust at the beginning of the tail in the grey Helicopter

chola · Post by **chola** » 16 Oct 2019 05:51

tandav wrote:what is the round turret just behind the engine exhaust at the beginning of the tail in the grey Helicopter

According to this (posted by smooth manifold at DFI), it is a satellite antenna. Basically an enclosed satellite dish.

chola · Post by **chola** » 16 Oct 2019 06:08

Also posted by smooth manifold, orbat and numbers of the PLA (includes the PLANAF, I guess.)

List includes nearly 400 MiG-21s! none with BVR ability like our 112 Bisons. And we complain about our ancient MiGs. LoL

A relatively detailed summary of combat aircrafts in PLA air force as of July, 2019

NOTE: the following is machine translate from various sources. Accuracy may not be guaranteed and only for reference.

Sukhoi series: 161

SU-27SK/UBK: 40 (Air Force Sniper Aviation 4th, 16, 41, 55 Brigade)

SU-30MKK: 73 (Air Force Cangzhou Base Flight Training 3, Air Force Sniper Aviation, 6th, 54th, 85th, 99th Brigade)

SU-30MK2: 24 (Qinghai Sniper Aviation 4th Brigade)

SU-35SK: 24 (Air Force Sniper Aviation 6th Brigade)

J-11/15/16 series: 597

J-11A: 105 (Air Force Test Flight, Air Force Sniper Aviation 4th, 16, 41, 55 Brigade)

J-11B/BS: 220 (Air Force Cangzhou Base Flight Training 2nd Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Weapons Test Mission, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Aviation 1st, 19th, 89th, 95th, 111th Brigade)

J-11BH/BSH: 72 (Navy Aviation University, Haihang Sniper Aviation 8th Brigade)

J-15: 40 (a group of Haihang Xingcheng carrier aircraft base)

J-16: 160 (Air Force Cangzhou Base Flight Training 3rd Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Evaluation and Test Center, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Aviation 3rd, 7th, 40th, 83rd, 98th Brigade)

J-20 series: 30

J-20: 30 (Air Force Zhangzhou Base Flight Training 3rd Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Evaluation and Testing Center, Air Force Sniper Aviation 9th Brigade)

J-10 series: 530

J-10A: 192 (Air Force Cangzhou Base Flight Training 1st Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Aviation Brigade 8, 26, 34, 43, 70, 124, 130 Brigade)

J-10AH: 16 (Qinghai Sniper Aviation 4th Brigade)

J-10AY: 8 (Air Force Bayi Air Show Team)

J-10B: 58 (Air Force Cangzhou Base Flight Training 1st Regiment, Air Force Sniper Aviation 5th, 56th, 61st Brigade)

J-10C: 120 (Air Force Zhangzhou Base Flight Training 1st Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Evaluation and Test Center, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Aviation 2nd, 5th, 72nd, and 131st Brigade)

J-10S: 124 (Air Force Zhangzhou Base Flight Training 1st Regiment, Air Force Dingxin Base Evaluation and Test Center, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Aviation 2nd, 5th, 8th, 26th, 34th, 43th, 56th, 61st, 70th 72, 124, 130, 131 brigade)

J-10SH: 8 (Qinghai Sniper Aviation 4th Brigade)

J-10SY: 4 (Air Force Bayi Air Show Team)

J-8 series: 132

J-8F/DF/HF: 96 (Air Force Sniper Aviation 78th, 109th Brigade, Sea Air Sniper Air Force 5th Brigade)

J-8FR: 36 (Air Force Reconnaissance Aviation Units 46, 93)

J-7 series: 396

J-7G: 72 (Air Force Sniper Aviation, 34th, 44th, 52nd Brigade)

J-7L: 72 (Air Force Sniper Aviation, 21st, 53nd Brigade)

J-7E: 144 (Air Force Sniper Aviation, 25th, 88th, 97th, and 132nd brigades)

J-7H: 108 (Air Force Sniper Aviation, 18th, 63rd, 125th Brigade)

Flying Leopard Series: 288

JH-7: 32 (Hangzhou Airlines sniper bombing aviation 6th brigade)

JH-7A: 256 (Air Force Dingxin Base Weapons Test Mission, Air Force Dingxin Base Blue Army Brigade, Air Force Sniper Bombing Aviation, 15th, 31st, 83rd, 110th, 126th Brigade, Naval Air University, HNA Training Base 2, HNA Sniper Aviation 5 Brigade, Haihang sniper bombing aviation 9th brigade)

Total number of fighters: 2,134

Total number of 4/4+ generation fighters: 1173 (SU-30MKK+SU-30MK2+SU-35SK+J-11B/BS+J-11BH/BSH+J-15+J-16+J-20+J-10 series

Note: sniper should be translated as figther

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 16 Oct 2019 06:55

^ Also clears up any misconception that 36 or 72 Rafales will help us "break the door" with PLAAF, which has 1173+ 4th gen fighters against ~400 IAF 4th gen jets. Based on ACM Bhaduria's comment, it seems the IAF has finally realized that purchasing foreign made weapons at eye watering prices will never enable it to defend against the PLAAF. Hopefully the Rafale fanboys on BRF and on Twitter also realize this soon.

chola · Post by **chola** » 16 Oct 2019 09:58

^^^ Actually we own overwhelming advantages in every realistic theater of war with Cheen. The Rafales will only tip the balance further.

Cheen can live losing Tibet. It can't live losing Shanghai or any part of the coast line. Those 1100 4th gen are stuck geo-politically a continent away from India. And they are facing hundreds of superior 4th gen fighters in the F-15s, F-16s and F-18s of the US and its allies. Never mind the impending arrival of hundreds of 5th gen F-35s.

The 400 J-7s tells me they are no less desperate for numbers then we are. And the MiG-21s they make do with suck more -- much more in fact -- than ours.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Oct 2019 10:38

chola wrote:^^^ Actually we own overwhelming advantages in every realistic theater of war with Cheen. The Rafales will only tip the balance further.

Cheen can live losing Tibet. It can't live losing Shanghai or any part of the coast line. Those 1100 4th gen are stuck geo-politically a continent away from India. And they are facing hundreds of superior 4th gen fighters in the F-15s, F-16s and F-18s of the US and its allies. Never mind the impending arrival of hundreds of 5th gen F-35s.

The 400 J-7s tells me they are no less desperate for numbers then we are. And the MiG-21s they make do with suck more -- much more in fact -- than ours.

We will see an exponential ramp-up in numbers in the Airforce once their Naval expansion reaches a particular threshold and significant funds flow into their aerospace sector. Just a matter of time...

chola · Post by **chola** » 16 Oct 2019 16:22

kit wrote:
chola wrote:^^^ Actually we own overwhelming advantages in every realistic theater of war with Cheen. The Rafales will only tip the balance further.

Cheen can live losing Tibet. It can't live losing Shanghai or any part of the coast line. Those 1100 4th gen are stuck geo-politically a continent away from India. And they are facing hundreds of superior 4th gen fighters in the F-15s, F-16s and F-18s of the US and its allies. Never mind the impending arrival of hundreds of 5th gen F-35s.

The 400 J-7s tells me they are no less desperate for numbers then we are. And the MiG-21s they make do with suck more -- much more in fact -- than ours.
We will see an exponential ramp-up in numbers in the Airforce once their Naval expansion reaches a particular threshold and significant funds flow into their aerospace sector. Just a matter of time...

When you consider that the J-10 was inducted only in 2006 and the J-11B in 2009, the ramp up has already occurred in for past decade or so with about 80-100 planes per year.

But yes, expect even more (both planes and ships) because Cheen needs to create more jobs in its MIC with Unkil intent on destroying its export engine. The US is trying to make the PRC more like the USSR. We know what happened there when the Soviets had little employment outside making things that provide no economic returns.

We should see the J-10 and J-20 annual numbers uptick with a domestic engine -- a more reliable uprated WS-10 or new WS-15. That is inevitable with the development of their powerplant industry.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDei ... 5769413634

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
Allegedly both the WS-10 powered J-20 & J-10C were seen today

nam · Post by **nam** » 16 Oct 2019 21:55

The interesting part is in terms of fighter strength, USAF probably has only 200 more jets than PLAAF!

USAF (based on wiki) F22+F15+F16+F35+A10 comes to around 1800

PLAAF is 1500 to 1600. If the Chini produce like crazy for the next 10 years, chances are it will reach 2200-2400 jets, with F7 retirement.

I don't see USAF retiring F15 or F16's anytime soon.

The issue with China is that it is already a 12 trillion+ GDP and a active producer of white goods. Unlike Soviets, who were hardly 2 trillion and sold only weapons and oil. Very difficult to bring Chinis to Soviet style economic collapse.

To late for US to bracket China. The bus has already left.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 16 Oct 2019 22:09

chola wrote:...
Cheen can live losing Tibet. It can't live losing Shanghai or any part of the coast line. Those 1100 4th gen are stuck geo-politically a continent away from India. And they are facing hundreds of superior 4th gen fighters in the F-15s, F-16s and F-18s of the US and its allies. Never mind the impending arrival of hundreds of 5th gen F-35s.

To me this is complete hogwash, are we really expecting US or Japan to start a world war for ous? With 1100 4th gen fighters they can play the attrition game with us until we run out of fighters while still maintaining a deterrence position in the east, in fact we are in a more precarious position with the Pakis on our western flank.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 16 Oct 2019 22:25

nam wrote:The interesting part is in terms of fighter strength, USAF probably has only 200 more jets than PLAAF!

USAF (based on wiki) F22+F15+F16+F35+A10 comes to around 1800

PLAAF is 1500 to 1600. If the Chini produce like crazy for the next 10 years, chances are it will reach 2200-2400 jets, with F7 retirement.

I don't see USAF retiring F15 or F16's anytime soon.

The issue with China is that it is already a 12 trillion+ GDP and a active producer of white goods. Unlike Soviets, who were hardly 2 trillion and sold only weapons and oil. Very difficult to bring Chinis to Soviet style economic collapse.

To late for US to bracket China. The bus has already left.

I think you need to factor overall capability not just one service vs. another. The USAF has the luxury of being partnered with the US Navy, that has nearly 700 Super Hornet and Growlers, > 50 AEW aircraft, and between it and the USMC has 700 F-35 C and B's as part of the program of record with between 80-100 F-35's being delivered to the three services each year..US combat force projection demand originates in the COCOM's and thus the mix of Air Power element is dictated by those long term trends and other needs. Joint Forces mission needs are also distributed among the various services based on that so land based and sea based or land-sea based air-power end strength is defined by the types of conflict they envision. The USAF couldn't even mobilize its entire force against a Chinese scenario..They'd run out of air-bases and landing strips. Hence the projection of force and airpower is spread.

The problem in a US-China scenario is not about the quality or the quantity to effectively provide for a conventional deterrent..That can be done within reasonable means through now and the 2050 time-frame. It is an access problem more than anything else..

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Oct 2019 00:26

brar_w wrote:
I think you need to factor overall capability not just one service vs. another. The USAF has the luxury of being partnered with the US Navy, that has nearly 700 Super Hornet and Growlers, > 50 AEW aircraft, and between it and the USMC has 700 F-35 C and B's as part of the program of record with between 80-100 F-35's being delivered to the three services each year..US combat force projection demand originates in the COCOM's and thus the mix of Air Power element is dictated by those long term trends and other needs. Joint Forces mission needs are also distributed among the various services based on that so land based and sea based or land-sea based air-power end strength is defined by the types of conflict they envision. The USAF couldn't even mobilize its entire force against a Chinese scenario..They'd run out of air-bases and landing strips. Hence the projection of force and airpower is spread.

The problem in a US-China scenario is not about the quality or the quantity to effectively provide for a conventional deterrent..That can be done within reasonable means through now and the 2050 time-frame. It is an access problem more than anything else..

Ofcourse I agree. The USAF vs PLAAF number comparison was just to show that, irrespective of the capability, China would probably be able to field the same (if not more) fighter assets. Ofcourse, J10/J20 are not closer to capabilities with F35/F22.

In terms on naval airpower, I expect them to field at-least 3/4 of USN fighter strength, with land & carrier combined.