Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Oct 2019 20:53

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,058.83 - Pt. Change : +94.99 - % Change : +0.24

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,57,458.51 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.9375

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,108.54 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,439.69 – Change : 240.73 - % Change : 0.72% - High : 33,639.76 – Low : 33,198.96

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,598,275,053,818 - $ 1 / T R : 156.0656

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.28 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.87 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Oct 2019 21:20

FATF: Pakistan on the edge - Hasaan Khawar

There are three key messages that came out for Pakistan from the FATF’s recently concluded session. Firstly, there is not much time left for us and unless we make substantial changes in our anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regime, we are facing a serious risk of being blacklisted. Secondly, there is a large disconnect between what we have been claiming in media versus what has actually been happening on the ground and lastly, the diplomatic space for Pakistan to dodge the blacklist is shrinking fast.

The tone of FATF’s official statement couldn’t have been any clearer. It stated that “all deadlines in the action plan have now expired and Pakistan has only largely addressed five of 27 action items”. It also warned that without significant progress across the “full range of the agreed action plan”, Pakistan could be blacklisted. The next deadline is due in February, which gives Pakistan hardly four months for what it hasn’t been able to achieve in 15 months.

Interestingly, FATF’s statement is in stark contrast with the messages that recently came out of the government quarters, creating an impression that Pakistan was on the right trajectory to get out of the grey list. This couldn’t, however, be any farther from the truth. Although the government never released the agreed action plan or the progress against it, the successive FATF statements publicly acknowledged progress on only two counts — operationalising the integrated database for Pakistan’s currency declaration regime and revision of the ML/TF risk assessment. Out of the 10 objectives of the action plan, these relate to only the first objective and that too partially. Progress against the rest of the nine objectives remains unclear.

This shows that besides performance gaps, there are also serious issues of either miscommunication by the government or its flawed understanding of the FATF action plan. Similar concerns about the lack of disclosure have also been raised earlier. The national risk assessment (NRA) report was never made public, despite the fact that such assessments are routinely disclosed by other countries. Recently released Pakistan’s Mutual Evaluation Report highlighted that while the NRA was shared with key law enforcement agencies, it was not even shared with the private sector, with the exception of banks that were given some presentations. This was despite the fact that one of FATF’s main concerns is poor understanding of the ML/TF risks within the private sector. If the government brings out this information in the public domain, not only will it create awareness in the private sector but also reduce rumor-mongering by the Indian media and would ensure public oversight and pressure to support requisite changes.

Then comes the diplomatic frontier. Within the FATF, a total of three votes are needed to avoid backlisting and Pakistan has been relying on China, Turkey, and Malaysia to dodge the blacklist so far. But a significant shift in FATF’s tone clearly indicates that the diplomatic space is shrinking. Reportedly, Pakistan has also been informed by a few allies that the diplomatic shield won’t last long without actual progress on the ground. This essentially means that if we fail to demonstrate significant progress, some of our allies may be turning their backs on us.

There is no time to talk now. Instead, we need to strengthen core institutions like the Financial Monitoring Unit, regulators and law-enforcement agencies; provide training to relevant private sector entities; and most importantly push the pedal to the metal on enforcement, seizures, case registration, investigations, prosecutions, and convictions in cases of money laundering and terrorism financing. If we can show some serious performance in the next three to four months, we might have a chance to thwart off this threat, or else we could slip from the edge.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 23 Oct 2019 22:22

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Oct 2019 20:05

Big industry contracts over 7pc in August - Mubarak Zeb Khan

ISLAMABAD: The country’s large-scale manufacturing output shrank for fifth month in a row, raising fears of massive layoffs across the industrial sector.

The LSM index dipped by 7.06 per cent in the second month of this fiscal year from a year ago, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday.

In comparison, the index had contracted by the first month of current fiscal year, LSM index shrank by 3.28pc while it fell 6.04pc year-on-year between July and August.

In 2018-19, the three LSM sectors recorded a decline of 3.64pc against the target growth of 8.1pc, which the government has set at 3.1pc for 2019-20.

The decrease in LSM was mainly led by a dip of 14pc in petroleum products, followed by 12.82pc in automobile sector, 12.58pc in non-metallic minerals, 9.96pc in fertilisers, 9.81pc in pharmaceuticals, 5.63pc in chemicals, 5.43pc in engineering, 5.10pc in iron and steel and 0.08pc in textile sector.

Sector wise, production data of 11 items under the Oil Companies Advisory Committee registered dec­rease of 0.66pc, whereas 36 items under the Ministry of Indu­stries and Production shrank by 4.89pc and 65 items by Provincial Bureaus of Statistics 1.5pc.

The lacklustre performance in the industrial sector reflects the overall economic slowdown across various sectors in the ongoing fiscal year.

LSM constitutes 80pc of manufacturing and 10.7pc of the overall GDP. In comparison, small-scale manufacturing accounts for just 1.8pc of GDP and 13.7pc in manufacturing.

Data reveals various factors that led to the slowdown including lower Public Sector Development Programme expenditures compared to last year, deceleration in the private construction activities and consumer spending on durable goods.

The impact was more noticeable in the construction-allied industries as demand for housing moderated amid rising building materials’ prices and higher cost of financing. Certain sector-specific issues also contributed to the decline in LSM.

Automobile prices witnessed multiple upward revisions due to currency depreciations, which kept potential buyers at bay. On a yearly basis, the auto sector registered sales decline in almost all variants during the second month of this fiscal year. The production of tractor dipped by 36.3pc, trucks 58.8pc, buses 38.38pc, jeeps and cars 41.71p, LCVs 10.76pc and motor cycles 12.86pc.

Pharmaceutical sector also suffered due to a considerable lag in regulatory adjustments in prices, which in addition to the weakening of local currency added to the distress of an import-dependent sector. As a result, the production of syrups declined by 36.82pc, tablets 4.95pc, capsules 2.9pc and injections 7.49pc.

Similarly, lower sugarcane production and carry forward from last year’s inventories further dampened the prospects of sugar industry. In the non-metallic mineral products, cement production was down by 12.12pc in August.

Moreover, production of cooking oil, and tea blended fell by 9.71pc and 35.86pc, respectively. However, vegetable ghee production increased by 0.66pc in August FY19 on a yearly basis.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 24 Oct 2019 23:33

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Oct 2019 00:14

Indus Motors shuts down plant

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 25 Oct 2019 21:08

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,058.06 - Pt. Change : +37.67 - % Change : +0.10

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,49,28,677.40 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.9050

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,105.45 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,657.46 – Change : -105.02 - % Change : -0.31% - High : 33,943.81 – Low : 33,597.86

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,639.580,339,33 - $ 1 / T R = 156.0613

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.55 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.48 : 1


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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Gagan » 25 Oct 2019 22:25

Paqistani economy going places under Niazi saab. This news from July this year...
Honda halts production in Paquistan, Indus (Toyota) to follow
https://www.dawn.com/news/1493808/honda-halts-production-in-pakistan-indus-to-follow
LAHORE: Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan (HACP) shut down its plant for 10 days on Friday as its inventories piled up to 2,000 units on plummeting car sales amid rising prices due to imposition of new, higher taxes in the budget and steep currency devaluation in the recent weeks.

Similarly, Indus Motor Company (IMC), which produces Toyota models in Pakistan, has also decided to stop car production for eight days, two days every week, during this month, company sources told Dawn.

Honda had kept its plant closed for two days earlier last week. However, a Pakistan Suzuki Motor Company spokesman told Dawn the company will take decision whether or not to cut down production in the next few days after analysing sales trend and flow of booking orders during the present month.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 26 Oct 2019 16:05

X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

Pakistan unlikely to meet debt reduction targets - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: The government may not achieve most of its targets set in the medium-term debt reduction strategy due to current high public debt levels amid addition of $14 billion to the external public debt in current fiscal year, said the Ministry of Finance on Friday.

However, it emphasised that the country would make significant progress on achieving the targets set for the 2019-24 period, including putting the country’s debt on a downward path.

Headed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)’s former finance minister Asad Umar, the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance took a briefing on the government’s debt management strategy.

“We may not be able to meet all the medium-term debt strategy targets due to current high debt levels but we will make significant progress towards achieving these goals,” stressed Abdul Rehman Warraich, Director General of Debt Policy Coordination Office of the Ministry of Finance.

Economic woes mount as debt, deficit stay high

The committee had a heated discussion on the continued absence of Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh from its meetings. Asad Umar agreed, in principle, that attending standing committee meetings was in the interest of all the ministers, but said there had been precedents where finance ministers in the past did not attend meetings.

“We are trying to bring perfect democracy only in the standing committee on finance and I do not agree with that,” remarked Umar, who himself had hardly missed any committee meeting as the finance minister.

However, PPP’s Hina Rabbani Khar strongly pushed the demand for binding the finance adviser to attend the committee meetings.

Key objectives of the medium-term debt strategy were to have a longer-maturity debt profile, increase borrowing at fixed interest rates, enhance the share of concessionary financing and reduce exchange rate shocks, said the director general of Debt Office.

Total public debt stood at 80.4% of GDP by the end of June 2019, which the government wants to cut to 66.5% by 2024. The share of domestic debt in the total public debt was 66%, which the government seeks to slash to 59% in five years.

The DG said the external debt portfolio was “pretty in line with the target but the government wants to reduce its reliance on commercial bank loans”. The share of commercial bank loans in the total external public debt was 18%, which the government wants to reduce to 12% in five years.

“We believe that over the longer run the external debt should not be more than 30% but considering the huge external financing needs, the external debt ratio is going to worsen a little bit,” said the DG Debt Office.

“The share of external debt will also rise because of low levels of foreign exchange reserves, which will be built by taking external loans,” said Umar.

Pakistan’s debt to rise to over 78% of GDP: IMF

Responding to a question, the DG Debt Office said the external public debt would go up by $14 billion in the current fiscal year whereas gross financing inflows were estimated at $21 billion.

The external public debt stood at $84 billion at the end of previous fiscal year on June 30, 2019, according to the SBP statistics. This may now go up to $98 billion by June 2020.

The total external debt stood at $106 billion at the end of previous fiscal year, which included $84 billion of public debt.

“The debt management strategy looks very good but the underlying assumptions are very unrealistic, therefore, these targets will be missed,” remarked Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s Dr Ayesha Ghaus Pasha.

The debt maturity profile improved significantly in the previous fiscal year due to the re-profiling of central bank debt, said the DG. “Over the next five years, we will be able to improve the maturity profile but we will not be able to meet the target,” he added.

At present, the share of short-term debt in the total domestic debt is 27%, which the Ministry of Finance wants to reduce to 20% by 2024. Similarly, the share of medium-term debt of one to five years is 30%, which the ministry wants to keep at the current level.

The share of long-term debt (more than five years) is 44%, which the government seeks to increase to 50% by 2024.

The DG Debt Office said the government desired to increase the share of fixed-interest debt in the total domestic debt from the current 45% to 53% over the next five years.

When the PPP’s Syed Naveed Qamar objected to taking loans at fixed rates at a time when the rates were too high, the DG Debt Office said due to a high interest rate environment, the government did not have a plan to heavily rely on fixed-interest loans for two years.

The DG said the government wanted to increase the share of Islamic financing from 1% to 10% over five years but due to the problem in identifying the assets to be placed as collateral, it would be hard to achieve the target.

Overall, the PTI government was projected to add Rs19.3 trillion to the public debt in its five-year term, which would be equal to 80% of the debt piled up in the past 71 years, and the debt would remain at unsustainable levels, showed figures of the Ministry of Finance.

The public debt, which was at Rs24.2 trillion or 72.1% of GDP at the end of PML-N government’s term, would surge to Rs43.5 trillion or 70.1% of GDP by 2022-23, showed figures of the Ministry of Finance.

There will be an increase of Rs19.3 trillion or 80% in the public debt during its five-year term as compared to the debt level left behind by the PML-N. Over 31% addition to the public debt during the PTI tenure has been on account of rupee depreciation.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Oct 2019 05:12

In Pakistan, export orders worth millions at risk as containers seized ahead of Azadi March - Imran Rana

FAISALABAD: Pakistan Textile Exporters Association (PTEA) Chairman Sohail Pasha has expressed grave concern over large-scale confiscation of export goods-laden containers by the law enforcement agencies in different cities of Pakistan to block main roads ahead of Azadi March by opposition parties.

“This step on the part of law enforcement agencies has put export orders worth millions of dollars at stake,” he said. “Owing to the seizure of containers, export shipments are not reaching ports on time and vessels are sailing away without the consignments.”

Pasha added that the failure to meet international commitments would lead to disputes, loss of customers, lack of market access along with poor image of Pakistan as a goods supplier.

“A large number of containers carrying export shipments have been confiscated to be used as barriers against the agitators,” he said. “As a result, truck and container companies are compelled to keep their remaining trailers and containers at different stations.”

Fearing the cancellation of orders worth billions of rupees, he cautioned that a considerable number of consignments, ready to be shipped, would not reach ports on time, which would not only cause a massive loss to exporters but would also result in a significant dent to the national exchequer.

He noted that Pakistan’s economy was undergoing a slowdown, hence the country needed to lift exports in a bid to boost revenues. “However, such disruptions in business activities can portray a negative image of Pakistan among countries which import our goods,” he said and added that such actions could push down Pakistan’s exports because of tough competition in global markets.

He stressed the need for round-the-clock facilitation by the government so that exporters could dispatch international orders on time. Global competitors were way ahead of Pakistan and international buyers had alternative options to switch to other countries, he pointed out.

PTEA Vice Chairman Haris Yousaf said the seizure of export goods-laden containers was causing immense trouble to importers as well as exporters. “This action is halting trade and industrial activities, particularly in the upcountry,” he said.

“A major share of country’s exports comes from different areas of Punjab, part of which has now been suspended due to the seizure of several containers,” he said. “Resultantly, the letters of credit will expire and export orders may be cancelled.” Yousaf regretted that the exporters had no information about their seized cargoes as to where the shipments, which were on their way to the harbour, were taken.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby g.sarkar » 28 Oct 2019 06:17

https://www.ft.com/content/98c4bf5a-f6b ... 9acae3b654
Disillusionment and economic woe stoke Pakistan protests against Khan
Prime minister is struggling to tackle rising prices and political frustration

Stephanie Findlay in New Delhi and Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
From small traders eking out an existence in far-flung markets to the young men studying in madrassas, a firebrand Islamist politician is rallying tens of thousands of Pakistanis to descend on Islamabad and topple Imran Khan.
On Thursday, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a veteran mobiliser who heads the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), will lead the marchers from across Pakistan into the capital. Mr Rehman, whose party has ties to the Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban and enjoys widespread support on the streets, is exploiting growing anger with Mr Khan’s government over his handling of an economic crisis.
Food, electricity and gas prices have risen sharply as growth grinds to a nine-year low, bruising the middle class. “The people of Pakistan are fed up with this government,” said Noor Ahmad Kakar, a 45-year-old supporter of Mr Rehman who travelled from the south-west province of Balochistan to Islamabad for the protest. “Inflation has never been higher and people don't have jobs.” Mr Rehman, who ran against Mr Khan last year, has the backing of the main opposition parties, which have formed a united front against the prime minister’s populist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. The opposition is demanding that Mr Khan step down from office over the economic slowdown and allegations that the military rigged the election to orchestrate his victory.
How Mr Khan responds to his first mass street protest will be a critical test of his political strength and, more importantly, his relationship with the military. Political turbulence in Pakistan has opened the door to military intervention before, such as in 1999 when Nawaz Sharif was ousted in a coup.
“The march is a challenge for Imran Khan, his position is weakening. His reliance on the military is increasing rather than decreasing,” said Zahid Hussain, a Pakistani journalist and author based in Islamabad.
.....
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 28 Oct 2019 18:27

Imran Khan ready with Lube :mrgreen:

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team has arrived in Islamabad to conduct the first quarterly review of Pakistans performance under its $6 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) finalised in May this year.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 28 Oct 2019 18:40

DIWALI MUHURAT S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,250.20 - Pt. Change : +192.14 - % Change : +0.49

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,50,15,014.87 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.8950

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,117.92 Billion

HINDU NEW YEAR MUHURAT P S E

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,662,961,586,590 - $ 1 / T R = 156.0613

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.70 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 49.6 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Oct 2019 01:22

Contrary to slogan of job creation, unemployment on the rise in Pakistan - Salman Siddiqui
KARACHI : The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) promised in its election manifesto before July 2018 polls that it would provide 10 million jobs over a span of five years. Instead, its policies in the very first year of its rule have resulted in massive layoffs nationwide.
The ongoing structural reforms, aimed at fixing the faltering economy, have crippled almost every sector, particularly the agriculture and large-scale manufacturing sectors, at least for the time being. The economic slowdown has not only prevented employers from hiring fresh graduates and newcomers in the market, but has also forced many of them to lay off staff in order to adjust to the emerging tough working environment. The Economic Survey of Pakistan, unveiled in June 2019, reported a slight drop in the rate of unemployment to 5.79% in fiscal year 2017-18.
Employers, however, have challenged the reading, arguing that it does not reflect the actual bleak situation in the job market. “If we take a holistic approach, it (the rate of unemployment) is not less than 14-15%,” Employers’ Federation of Pakistan (EFP) President Majyd Aziz told The Express Tribune. “The unemployment numbers reported by different governments from time to time are incorrect,” he said. The Economic Survey 2018-19, citing the Labour Force Survey of 2017-18, reported that the unemployment rate had decreased to 5.79% in 2017-18.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Oct 2019 01:51

PM misinformed about gas reserves near Karachi coast - Our Correspondent :((
KARACHI : Prime Minister Imran Khan was reportedly misinformed about presence of natural gas reserves near Karachi coast as there are 86% chances that the expected reserve – called Kekra-I – would not be found under the surface of the sea.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Haresh » 29 Oct 2019 02:51

Peregrine wrote:Prime Minister Imran Khan was reportedly misinformed about presence of natural gas


Shouldn't that be
"Prime Minister Imran Khan was reportedly misinformed about being the PM"

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Oct 2019 16:39

SBP paints bleak economic outlook for FY20 - Salman Siddiqui

KARACHI: The central bank has painted a bleak economic outlook of the country for the remaining part of the current fiscal year 2019-20, saying the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to remain subdued, while collecting the targeted taxes and containing inflation would remain major challenges during the period.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its Annual Report 2018-19 on the State of Economy issued on Monday kept its projection for GDP growth unchanged at 3-4% for FY20 and largely linked the growth with the pattern of development spending allocated at around Rs1.7 trillion under the head of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for the current year.

“Pakistan’s GDP growth and PSDP spending move in the same direction … development spending may play a pivotal role,” the central bank said in the annual report.

Earlier, Adviser to PM on Finance Hafeez Shaikh said the government would make as many cuts in PSDP as the revenue shortfall would be in order to narrow down the challenging fiscal deficit during the year.

“It envisages a sizeable reduction in the (fiscal) deficit, by enhancing revenues and squeezing expenditures,” the SBP said.

It recalled that the GDP growth rate dropped to a nine-year low at 3.3% in the previous fiscal year which ended on June 30, 2019 when the government made a drastic cut in PSDP spending to overcome revenue shortfall.

The PSDP was originally allocated at Rs1.65 trillion for FY19, it was learnt.

The SBP has time and again projected the economic growth at 3.5% compared to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast at 2.4% for FY20.

“Macroeconomic stabilisation will continue to be the cornerstone of economic policies during FY20.”

Other triggers might include an improvement in market sentiments vis-à-vis the IMF programme. A better showing by the agriculture sector compared to last year, and a further improvement in the current account balance might also improve the final outcome, it said.

The central bank said it would remain a tough challenge for economic mangers to collect the ambitious revenues in taxes targeted at Rs5.55 trillion in the year that was around 40% higher than the one collected in the previous fiscal year.

“Achieving the ambitious tax collection target in the middle of a broader economic slowdown may present a challenge … the outlook for the fiscal sector, by contrast, is not straightforward,” the central bank said.

“Even if things pan out more or less according to plan, the fiscal deficit may be in the neighbourhood of 7% nevertheless, implying that there will still be some way to go before fiscal consolidation is achieved. That said, the government is expected to make a concerted effort to meet the IMF’s quarterly targets, implying a measure of fiscal discipline,” it said.

The FY20 budget looks to fix the deficiencies of the tax system and represents an earnest effort to increase documentation, it added.

“Inflation; meanwhile, is expected to exceed its annual projection (8.5%) by the Planning Commission of Pakistan for FY20,” it said.

While demand pressures generally subsided, cost-related impact might be more pronounced in the first half of the fiscal year, taking the cue from oneoff adjustment in prices of utilities and other FY20 budget-related measures.

By the second half, further supported by the end of deficit monetisation by the government, price pressures may begin to recede, “setting the tone for considerably lower inflation in FY21”.

However, cross-border tensions represented an upside risk to this outlook, given their tendency to drive up food inflation. At the same time, the global slowdown might pose a downside risk to the outlook, especially if international oil prices fell more sharply than anticipated.

Silver lining

The external sector’s outlook is positive on the whole. The current account deficit after shrinking during FY19 is anticipated to subside further in FY20. “Exports are projected to pick up during the year, conditional on-demand situation among the country’s major trading partners and buoyancy in commodity markets. The FTA-II with China and preferential trade agreement with Indonesia may also give a boost to exports.

Moreover, workers’ remittances were expected to remain robust in FY20 on the back of measures taken and incentives given to overseas Pakistanis remitting under the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI).

On an optimistic note, the private sector would be mindful. New opportunities were opening up. Imports of many consumer items and finished goods were shrinking due to a combination of regulatory duties and exchange rate depreciation. This generated an opportunity for domestic companies to step in and fill in this demand in the short- to medium-term.

The alignment of the exchange rate represented improved prospects for export-oriented enterprises. Beyond the provision of traditional goods and services, innovation must be the new watchword.

“Technology-driven domestic startups have already ushered in a positive disruption in industries ranging from banking (fintechs) to transportation (ride-hailing apps) and consumer goods and food (delivery apps), to name just a few. Such examples may inspire those investors who have been sitting on the fence for some time now to abandon the wait-and-see mode, and take positions sooner rather than later,” it said.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 29 Oct 2019 17:27

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,831.84 - Pt. Change : +581.64 - % Change : +1.48

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,52,05,274.68 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.7475

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,149.23 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,797.51 – Change : -64.08 - % Change : -0.19% - High : 34,016.55 – Low : 33,715.97

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,649,490,385,501 - $ 1 / T R = 156.0728

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.61 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.44 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Oct 2019 18:11

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,051.87 - Pt. Change : +220.03 - % Change : +0.55

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,53,27,031.14 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.0800

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co.. (U S $.) : 2,156.31 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 33,761.41 - Change : -36.10 - Percent Change : -0.11% - High : 33,951.48 – Low : 33,670.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,665.694,580,500 - $ 1 / T R : 156.00

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 42.73 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.46 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 30 Oct 2019 19:24

Pakistan asks IMF to ease curbs on financial system - Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ease restrictions on the creation of domestic money for smooth working of the country’s financial system and offset the impact of relatively low foreign inflows.

During ongoing talks, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised the issue of relaxing the condition of net domestic assets of the central bank, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Pakistan has met the net domestic asset target for the first quarter but future targets are stringent that may create liquidity problems in the banking system, according to sources.

The design of the IMF programme is such that the fund has allowed a significant increase in net foreign assets due to anticipated increase in foreign inflows after signing of a bailout package but has restricted the increase in domestic assets.

Under the IMF programme, the federal government is not allowed to directly borrow from the SBP and its financing needs are met by commercial banks.

In return, the central bank meets commercial banks’ needs by injecting money but stringent net domestic asset targets can create problems for the central bank in ensuring availability of liquidity.

Overall, the ongoing talks between the IMF and Pakistan were expected to progress smoothly except for discussions on federal tax collection and power tariffs, said the sources.

The IMF was not comfortable with the numbers given by the Power Division about the reduction in circular debt and its future path, and prospects of achieving a higher tax collection target by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), the sources said.

The first quarter conditions included adding only Rs23 billion to the circular debt, preparing a comprehensive debt reduction plan, collecting Rs1.071 trillion in taxes and paying Rs75 billion in tax refunds. All these targets along with health and education spending targets have been missed.

The IMF mission was looking forward to having a meaningful and productive review by aiming at a forward-looking approach with focus on the adjustments required till March, especially in the power sector, and funding from various bilateral and multilateral sources for boosting Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, a finance ministry statement quoted the IMF mission chief Ernesto Ramirez Rigo as saying.

The press release was issued after a meeting between Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and the IMF on Tuesday.

As part of stabilisation policies, Pakistan is implementing tight fiscal and monetary policies, which have hit economic growth. Large-scale manufacturing industries recorded a negative 6% growth in first two months of the current fiscal year. The stabilisation phase is expected to continue but economic managers want certain relaxations so that the economy does not get choked. The IMF programme seeks to divert domestic budget financing to external sources and nearly two-thirds of the deficit financing is projected to come from the external sources.

But due to a low uptick in foreign inflows, there were apprehensions that the financial system could face liquidity problems if base money was not sufficiently created, said the sources.

The IMF staff-level report projected 8.9% increase in net foreign assets in the current fiscal year as against projected negative 6% growth in the previous fiscal year. Compared to this, the net domestic assets, which grew in double digits in the last fiscal year, are projected to grow only 3.2%.

The numbers of net domestic assets will have to undergo changes due to the difference of Rs1.8 trillion between the domestic assets reported in the IMF report and the SBP’s statistics.

The last IMF report showed the SBP’s net domestic assets at Rs8.85 trillion while the central bank data showed it at slightly over Rs7 trillion.

“The containment of current and fiscal deficits and stabilisation of the exchange rate are indicative of the success of government efforts to put the economy on a long-term growth track,” commented Finance Adviser Abdul Hafeez Shaikh while talking to the IMF mission team, led by Rigo, stated the finance ministry.

Shaikh said non-tax revenues had improved significantly while discussions with the IMF on tax revenues were going on.

SBP Governor Reza Baqir, Finance Secretary Naveed Kamran Baloch, FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi and Special Secretary Finance Omar Hamid Khan were present in the meeting.

Shaikh told the visiting mission delegation that Pakistan enjoyed a very cordial relationship with the IMF and it had been further strengthened during his recent visit to Washington where productive meetings and fruitful discussions were held with the senior IMF management.

He said Pakistan valued the IMF support and financial assistance and the prime minister was personally overseeing and monitoring the progress achieved in various sectors of the economy.

Rigo appreciated the positive results being produced by the policies and strategies put in place by the government to remove imbalances in the economy. He said the volatility in exchange rate had been reduced while successes had also been achieved in other areas, especially on the fiscal front, which indicated the government was moving in the right direction.

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Vips
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 31 Oct 2019 04:06

Porkis have $1 Billion in dues to pay in November :)

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 31 Oct 2019 10:40

Finally any chance the Pakistani Rupee can hit 165-170 rate, its unusually high at 155

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 31 Oct 2019 12:07

WSJ futures point to 180 levels by sep 2020.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 31 Oct 2019 12:25

menon s wrote:WSJ futures point to 180 levels by sep 2020.


Hope that level is breached by the new year

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Vips » 31 Oct 2019 16:53

180 paki tissue paper to one US$ is the rate that has been prescribed/negotiated/agreed to by Pakistan with the IMF. The rate will be reached during the pendency of the program execution. Imran fears the lamp post treatment by the abduls and hence wants to give zhor ka jhatka dhire se.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby menon s » 31 Oct 2019 18:32

The IMF programs normal starts biting in the second year operations, in almost all cases. If 2019, had been difficult for Imran, then 2020, would be SOS situation for not just Imran , but the whole country.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 31 Oct 2019 19:54

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 40,129.05 - Pt. Change : +77.18 - % Change : +0.19

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. : (Rs.Cr.) : 1,54,09,067.51 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.0875

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. : (U S $.) : 2,167.62 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 34,203.68 – Change : 442.27 - % Change : 1.29% - High : 34,306.00 – Low : 33,761.41

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. : (Rs.Cr.) : 6,690,044,505,086 - $ 1 / T R = 155.8980

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. : (U S $.) : 42.91 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 50.52 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Nov 2019 03:55

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Rishirishi
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Rishirishi » 01 Nov 2019 06:07

Pakistan spends over 11 billion dollars on defence.
Bangladesh with a larger economy spends only 3,8 billion dollars. If Pakistan brought down the defence spending by 7,2 billion dollars, it would not even need the IMF.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Nov 2019 10:39

Rishirishi wrote:Pakistan spends over 11 billion dollars on defence.
Bangladesh with a larger economy spends only 3,8 billion dollars. If Pakistan brought down the defence spending by 7,2 billion dollars, it would not even need the IMF.

Actually Pakistan diverts a lot of civilian business Income towards defense and Jihadis, another 6to 7 billion dollars. Pakistan defense spending is about 17 billion usd. You have to remember inspite of media propaganda they produce nothing, every truck ,Radio and radar is imported so they get less bang for the buck also

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 01 Nov 2019 16:10

UB TERA KYA HOOGA - I'm the Dimiya!

Pakistan requests IMF to cut tax target by Rs300b - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has requested the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the federal tax target by Rs300 billion to Rs5.2 trillion as shortfall in collection has widened to Rs167 billion in just four months of the current fiscal year.
The request was made despite Prime Minister Imran Khan’s personal commitment to the nation that he would go all out to achieve the Rs5.5-trillion annual tax collection target.
Both the sides were in negotiations about the possibility of reducing the FBR’s annual target due to steeper-than-anticipated slowdown in the economy and import compression, highly placed sources told The Express Tribune.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2019 16:19

Rishirishi wrote:Pakistan spends over 11 billion dollars on defence.
Bangladesh with a larger economy spends only 3,8 billion dollars. If Pakistan brought down the defence spending by 7,2 billion dollars, it would not even need the IMF.


Actually 11 billion or even 20 billion is less for the self declared Arab superpower.

India should encourage Pak to spend atleast 30-40 billion on defence. Hope they get an aircraft carrier soon and have more than 1000 nukes.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Nov 2019 17:32

That is stupid, what we need them to have is high Salaries and no Nukes or poorly working equipment but being delusional everything is fine.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby kit » 01 Nov 2019 17:58

nam wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Pakistan spends over 11 billion dollars on defence.
Bangladesh with a larger economy spends only 3,8 billion dollars. If Pakistan brought down the defence spending by 7,2 billion dollars, it would not even need the IMF.


Actually 11 billion or even 20 billion is less for the self declared Arab superpower.

India should encourage Pak to spend atleast 30-40 billion on defence. Hope they get an aircraft carrier soon and have more than 1000 nukes.



The pakis seem to be building up their local defence industry as there is no money to buy foreign equipment. They are tapping Chinese, Ukrainian and Russian expertise.It is a good idea to track their ability to do so and curtail their access in any way.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2019 18:07

Aditya_V wrote:That is stupid, what we need them to have is high Salaries and no Nukes or poorly working equipment but being delusional everything is fine.


Nukes are weapons you cannot use and are very expensive to make and maintain.

What better than having a weapon you cannot use. We should let them have 1000s of them.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2019 18:09

Nukes, Surface ships,fighters & pension. 4 most expensive things. Force the Pak to invest in these and drive them bankrupt.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 01 Nov 2019 18:38

And yet it is their cheapest and most plentiful resource which they will ultimately fall back to - the aam Abdul.

And what they believe to be their ultimate secret weapon, - his stealthy cousin inside our fence.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2019 19:00

Which is why they use the cannon fodders. You don't have to pay pension.

Attrition on LC is what need to do, to drive their pension bill.

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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Manish_P » 01 Nov 2019 19:22

Agree. However attrition is a two-way street.

We need to accelerate their split into 4 entities and then have each of the kabilas at the throat of at least one of the others.

But this is all OT for this thread.

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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Postby Peregrine » 02 Nov 2019 19:24

'Pakistan can be among top-20 economies' – APP
FAISALABAD: Pakistan has been put on the right track and the country can earn a position among top-20 economies of the world if it successfully documents its informal economy, said Ambassador of Italy to Pakistan Stefano Pontecorvo.
Speaking at the Faisalabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FCCI) on Friday, he said that the size of Pakistan’s economy was around $300 billion but 80% of it was undocumented.
Mama Mia Questo è dal ridicolo al sublime! :rotfl:
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