2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 03 Dec 2019 16:50

DF needs to remain as the face of moderate BJP, to appeal to the urban voters and the moneybags. A fiery Maratha on the other hand, can be the face of the "other" BJP occupying the space Sena has vacated. Can someone be found? Someone who can speak well, preferably from an armed forces background?

Marathi : Language, and the people who speak that tongue.

Maratha : A caste, dominant in the politics of the state, influential as well.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 Dec 2019 17:31

sajo wrote:One off incident : Got chatty with a driver employed by my Org today. He is from Yavatmal, far from the "Marathi Manoos" politics of Mumbai, and a self proclaimed sainik since 2 decades now, with the only motivator of Sena being further to the right of BJP. He and his fellow workers from that region are deeply hurt with the alliance. I chose to further rub it in by showing a photo of Abu Azmi with the Sainiks. I say, its open season now. BJP can easily capitalize on it, go soul harvesting like our friends from the EJs do. Pump money into the state unit, recruit a few Sena musclemen, show that they are now their only hope. DF can go easy on these elements until the Hindu consolidation happens.

UT typically behaved like Gandhi / Nehru -- taking big decisions without any reference to the wishes of the people whose interests they claim to represent, even though those decisions are going to impact the same people hugely. UT will suffer with massive erosion of his support base - he has done a very greedy and selfish thing, and has shown feet of clay. He has sounded the death knell of Shiv Sena

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 03 Dec 2019 17:48

I think people are being overly optimistic in believing that Thackereys or SS will lose their support base. Has their been even some indication of SS supporters and workers being upset or anguished at their leader's behaviour?

As members above have pointed out, in this era of patronage politics, cultivating interests via patronage goes a long way as Pawar family has demonstrated in Maha.

All SS needs to do is to actively patronise their core support with a smattering of Hindutva thrown in.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 03 Dec 2019 18:11

If patronage and crumbs of power were all they were after, Shiv Sainiks would have joined NCP and Congress long back. No need for them to have stuck to SS for so many years

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Dec 2019 18:56

One needs to differentiate between Sena party workers and voters. Workers enjoy direct perks and may cling to the party to a great extent where as voters, who do not enjoy direct network benefits will desert if they have a viable alternative. Hindutva voters have a viable alternative in BJP.

OTOH, economic voters will vote according to performance and alternative. Therefore, it is important for Sena to be in power for the full-term to delivery and expand its base.

If the alliance falls due to internal bickering or does not perform, the blame will directly land at the doors of the CM face i.e. Uddhav/Sena. The other alliance partners, the NCP and CON, will dump everything on the Sena and escape with lesser blame.

Therefore, I have been insisting for quite a while now that Sena WILL have to compromise on NCP/CON demands because Uddhav is on the firing line and not Pawarful/Supriya or Sonia/Rahul. The onus for keeping the alliance alive is on Sena/Uddhav.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 Dec 2019 21:49

Problem of being Uddhav Thackrey.

UT has inherited a party which has no ideology or program. They survived on loutness , thuggishness and Thackrey brand name. When back in power, all they did was whine and crib about Modi Ji and Fadanavis.
During Manohar Joshi rule, The only good thing that happened was initiated by Gadakari ji.
If you want to check their track record, you don't have to look any farther than BMC and state of Mumbai. They started with anti-commie, moved onto anti-Madarasis and then later joined Hindutva brigade post Babari Masjid.
So to think that UT will have any moral repulsion to certain acts if proposed by Pa-nia, is not being practical. He will happily twist and bend to keep himself in power.
As far expanding base, It is very hard to do when in power especially when the space is already occupied by alliance partner and delivery is something that we haven't seen anyone successfully executing other than Modi Ji. UT hasn't yet seen aggressive opposition which BJP will provide. Let the honeymoon period die and wait for them to present first budget. He has been treated with kid gloves in Maharashtra till now.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Dec 2019 22:51

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 340613.cms
Said 'no' to Modi, got Sonia & Uddhav together: Sharad Pawar

This is all over Anti-Modi echo system. Pawarful has again showed that bleddy Mudi who the real chanakya is.

The echo system again got it wrong! Pawarful is giving his side of the story to protect himself. Think of a few days back and the news that was floating around and what it meant for the alliance.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 04 Dec 2019 00:25

Ahmedabad: Congress MLA’s speeding car kills man, he claims it was his driver behind the wheels
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/congres ... ahmedabad/

While family members of the deceased alleged that Parmar’s son was driving the car, the police and the MLA, who remained unreachable for the media until the next morning, later informed that his driver Devendra Bhavsar aka Lalabhai was behind the wheels.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Dec 2019 08:21

Will let this thread run till December end and start 2020 thread .

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Dec 2019 09:33

With the latest New Yorker article, I submit Ayyub has crossed the line. The article clearly states she illegally facilitated the movement of a foreign national into Kashmir and collaborated in his illegal activities. If this is not treason, what is? Why exactly is the GOI sleeping on the wheel and letting her drum up an international campaign against India?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 04 Dec 2019 10:24

sajo wrote:DF needs to remain as the face of moderate BJP, to appeal to the urban voters and the moneybags. A fiery Maratha on the other hand, can be the face of the "other" BJP occupying the space Sena has vacated. Can someone be found? Someone who can speak well, preferably from an armed forces background?

Marathi : Language, and the people who speak that tongue.

Maratha : A caste, dominant in the politics of the state, influential as well.

I lived in Pune during the early 70 to early 80s. The sense I got back then, was that anyone who is not a Brahmin and hails from Western Maharashtra (Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur belt) is a Maratha. Would that be a fair generalisation?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 04 Dec 2019 10:33

The ny article by ms Ayub never tells who all 'were' minorities in cashmore and how come (daraa huaa?) people from muslim minority in Gujarat of mowdi burnt ladies coach of a train full of Hindu pilgrims.

For some reasons the 'international' publications never begin at who all are majority worldwide (RoL, RoP), their latest house nigros (communists) but keep harping against democracy to the benefit of jihad-mongers who want religious rule in cashmore. Nothing of this is hidden but the international publications pretending to be leftists never join dots in such a manner.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 04 Dec 2019 10:48

Karan M wrote:With the latest New Yorker article, I submit Ayyub has crossed the line. The article clearly states she illegally facilitated the movement of a foreign national into Kashmir and collaborated in his illegal activities. If this is not treason, what is? Why exactly is the GOI sleeping on the wheel and letting her drum up an international campaign against India?

In my opinion, this called upping the ante. Their usual tricks have brought but a trickle in returns, so now the cabal is escalating the provocation ladder to goad the GoI into lashing out at the likes of Ayyub et al., and use that as a stick to go after the GoI.

Probably, GoI understands this game well. All this talk of restrictions and a foreign journo with his Indian handlers slips in and out of J&K and no harm comes to them- does take the sting off the repression rhetoric doesn't it?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Dec 2019 11:01

Slowly it is dawning on folks, most of the support given to Pakis by 3.5 friends is not because of Afghanistan, they dont understand Pakis and thier mentality etc etc..... Nope it is pure Hindu hatred which supports Pakis and BIF forces.

When we benefit materially from or own Hard work or from nice people in the western world who appreciate hard work, we are unable to understand that there is small minority of influential people in Governments who may not express it public ally but hate us nevertheless. The BIF ecosystem has cleverly meshed themselves with these and along with the Paki elite- all 3 feed off each other and resultant corruption to materially benefit themselves.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 04 Dec 2019 11:12

The Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) seems to be getting debated in Parliament today. Let us see how this would go.
Parliament LIVE: Citizenship Bill likely to be discussed today

Mean while in KA, the Muslim organisations have started the paper work already to ensure that maximum people would get proper documentation to prove that they are Indian citizens.
Amit Shah keeps Karnataka Muslims on toes. KA & KL has a large number of Bangladeshi illegals and looks like at least in KA, a plan is afoot to get them permenant citizenship. The report talks that Muslim organisations are only helping illiterates etc, but common sense tell me that is not the case.

SC grants P Chidambaram bail in INX media case. And would this enable him to walk out of Tihar Central Prison? Or is there any other case pending?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 04 Dec 2019 12:49

nandakumar wrote: I lived in Pune during the early 70 to early 80s. The sense I got back then, was that anyone who is not a Brahmin and hails from Western Maharashtra (Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur belt) is a Maratha. Would that be a fair generalisation?

That is not true. There are plenty of other castes in MH. Marathas are just one among them. However they are high in number and there are several sub-castes among them. A loose comparison would be Reddy's in AP. Like Reddy's, they are immensely powerful politically. And not restricted to Western MH. They live in Konkan and Vidarbha as well. But Western MH is their stronghold.

Thackeray family are neither Marathas nor Brahmins. They belong to the Chandraseniya Kayastha Prabhu (CKP) community. One of the traditional "upper" castes along with Brahmins.

Maratha community is considered the traditional Kshatriya community of MH. However it must be noted that the Maratha empire armies contained soldiers drawn from many different communities, not just Marathas.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 04 Dec 2019 12:51

Aditya_V wrote:Slowly it is dawning on folks, most of the support given to Pakis by 3.5 friends is not because of Afghanistan, they dont understand Pakis and thier mentality etc etc..... Nope it is pure Hindu hatred which supports Pakis and BIF forces.

When we benefit materially from or own Hard work or from nice people in the western world who appreciate hard work, we are unable to understand that there is small minority of influential people in Governments who may not express it public ally but hate us nevertheless. The BIF ecosystem has cleverly meshed themselves with these and along with the Paki elite- all 3 feed off each other and resultant corruption to materially benefit themselves.

Things have not changed much from the times when Winston Churchill said about Hindus: "They are a beastly people with a beastly religion." The White Man's attitude towards Indians is driven by the psychotic hatred of Christians of "idol-worshiping heathens." Hindus have been timid in calling out this hatred and questioning the religion of these people which condemns rest of humanity to hell and treats it as untouchables. We need to be more belligerent in taking on the religious bigotry of these people, and the prejudices of their stone-age religion. They are on thin ice regarding this as these prejudices cannot be defended in modern times

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 04 Dec 2019 13:03

Nachiket ji, peshwas ...

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 04 Dec 2019 13:06

A major blow to "secularism" indeed - Citizenship Amendment Bill 2019 gets Cabinet nod. My understanding is that the Bill would now have to be placed in Lok Sabha followed by Rajya Sabha. Don't know if BJP plans to do both of it in the current session.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2019 13:24

pankajs wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 340613.cms
Said 'no' to Modi, got Sonia & Uddhav together: Sharad Pawar

This is all over Anti-Modi echo system. Pawarful has again showed that bleddy Mudi who the real chanakya is.

The echo system again got it wrong! Pawarful is giving his side of the story to protect himself. Think of a few days back and the news that was floating around and what it meant for the alliance.

It all started as a rumor about the meeting between Pawarful and Modi where Pawarful is supposed to have offered support for a BJP government in Maharashtra in return for the Agri minister at the center for his daughter and someone other than Fadnavis as the CM. Later those rumors got written as facts by a couple of major newspapers. Now Imagine the dismay of the allies fueled by the double dealing's of Pawarful.

To neutralize the dismay it must have generated in the Sena/NCP/CON alliance, Pawarful had to go on the offensive, give his own version of the meeting between himself and Modi with exact the opposite recounting. To further stress his commitment to his allies he added that Judge Lohia case needs to be re-investigated.

No matter what happened at the meeting between Modi and Pawarful, the seed of doubt has been planted in the minds of Sena/CON. All in a day of politics but the anti-Modi echo-system is unable to process beyond Pawarful beats Chanakya!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2019 13:40

Lo jee ..

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Dec 2019 13:48

so simple.

twitter

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2019 14:04

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1201865880855957506

Press Trust of India @PTI_News

Madhya Pradesh govt to organise annual Ramleela in all 378 civic bodies; build stage for the popular Ramayan-based event: Urban Development and Housing Minister Jaivardhan Singh

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1201850965638275072

ANI @ANI

Jawaharlal Nehru University has issued another circular saying 'all students must complete all academic requirements,including sitting for end-semester exams& submitting their respective dissertations/thesis. Failing which the names of such students will be removed from roll list'

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 04 Dec 2019 14:36

nachiket wrote:
nandakumar wrote: I lived in Pune during the early 70 to early 80s. The sense I got back then, was that anyone who is not a Brahmin and hails from Western Maharashtra (Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur belt) is a Maratha. Would that be a fair generalisation?
That is not true. There are plenty of other castes in MH. Marathas are just one among them. However they are high in number and there are several sub-castes among them. A loose comparison would be Reddy's in AP. Like Reddy's, they are immensely powerful politically. And not restricted to Western MH. They live in Konkan and Vidarbha as well. But Western MH is their stronghold.

Thackeray family are neither Marathas nor Brahmins. They belong to the Chandraseniya Kayastha Prabhu (CKP) community. One of the traditional "upper" castes along with Brahmins.

Maratha community is considered the traditional Kshatriya community of MH. However it must be noted that the Maratha empire armies contained soldiers drawn from many different communities, not just Marathas.

Thanks for that clarification.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 04 Dec 2019 15:18

Pawar has burned his bridge with Amit Shah and Modi ji by dragging their name into the mud. Even though never say NEVER in politics but the story of Maha and 'Chanakya' of Modern India hasn't ended yet.
Pawar anyways was never a fellow to be trusted in Lootens Delhi so I wonder what credibility he was trying to create by insinuating that PM asked for his support.
His story about Ajit Pawar is so cute that I had tears in my eyes. Explains why he still hasn't been given the post of Dy CM because AP had Pawar Sr. in his heart and he was trying to protect his honor.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Dec 2019 16:04

Its clear NCP-Shiv Sena- INC had a pre poll alliance hidden from Maharashtra people liek STalin Ribbentrop pact.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 04 Dec 2019 16:22

Aditya_V wrote:Its clear NCP-Shiv Sena- INC had a pre poll alliance hidden from Maharashtra people liek STalin Ribbentrop pact.

And it is very surprising that BJP could not sense this. Generally the ruling government/party will have the state's police special branch keep a tab on all this (even though their reports may not be accurate). Or it could be that BJP higher echelons knew about this but played along for reasons known to them only.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 04 Dec 2019 16:55

Sachin wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Its clear NCP-Shiv Sena- INC had a pre poll alliance hidden from Maharashtra people liek STalin Ribbentrop pact.
And it is very surprising that BJP could not sense this. Generally the ruling government/party will have the state's police special branch keep a tab on all this (even though their reports may not be accurate). Or it could be that BJP higher echelons knew about this but played along for reasons known to them only.

If there was a pre-poll alliance, There is no way BJP would not have known about it. So my guess is that either BJP played along or they never expected SS to pull the plug or BJP had its own plan of doing reverse alliance on NCP.
In any case, the lines between friends and foes is now clearly laid down.

Any projections of Jharkhand / Karanataka results. What do the exit polls say ?

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 04 Dec 2019 18:08

So that fact remains, BJP continues to head into electoral isolation throughout the country. It no longer has all-weather friends, barring TN, one cannot expect one party to have the necessary reach without local partners.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 04 Dec 2019 18:33

There should not be any alliance with opportunists like UT or CBN or Mehbooba Mufti. Better to strike it out alone and then look for a post-poll alliance from a position of strength. Pre-poll alliance harms BJP by restricting the number of seats it can fight on

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 04 Dec 2019 18:45

Vikas wrote:Pawar has burned his bridge with Amit Shah and Modi ji by dragging their name into the mud. Even though never say NEVER in politics but the story of Maha and 'Chanakya' of Modern India hasn't ended yet.
Pawar anyways was never a fellow to be trusted in Lootens Delhi so I wonder what credibility he was trying to create by insinuating that PM asked for his support.
His story about Ajit Pawar is so cute that I had tears in my eyes. Explains why he still hasn't been given the post of Dy CM because AP had Pawar Sr. in his heart and he was trying to protect his honor.

Pawar knows that his leadership or higher role ambitions in Delhi are as good as dead. The Italian congress does not trust him and so his role at the center will be very limited. 5 years is too long a time, with age factor not on his side and the responsibility of ensuring a future for his daughter and grand nephew he wisely chose to go with whatever gains he could make in Maharashtra.
Amit Shah has the facts regarding his acts of omission and commission in the rise of the D Gang, various corruption cases and will use it appropriately.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2019 20:02

^^ Yup .. Pawarful does not have the luxury of time, a not too political daughter and an angry nephew with his own aspiration and following ... with Shah/Modi/BJP waiting in the wings AND that is what makes me believe that Pawarful made Modi an offer that the latter rejected. All recent statements are coverups by Pawarful to shift focus for his double dealing.

THIS ... (Cross post)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1519962/whatever-it-takes
Whatever it takes [Ashraf Jehangir Qazi | December 02, 2019 | Former ambassador to the US, India and China...]

Aug 5, 2019 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan. Modi’s ‘Anschluss’ does not allow for incremental strategies. The prime minister must now do whatever it takes to ensure Pakistan no longer remains an irresolute and self-imprisoned soft state that surrenders its raison d’être.

Mudi did a lot of ungle with that single move.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Dec 2019 21:45

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/12 ... 2092683264

Manu Pubby @manupubby

Pak origin family run Formations House, which specialized in creating offshore entities, is at the centre of a global media investigation.

ET was the Indian partner for a collaborative journalism project after 131 GB of data was disclosed in #29Leaks

Likely reason why many of our leading lights are soft towards Bakis. London based baki having your offshore details is as good as ISI having your offshore details.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Dec 2019 22:08

pappu hard at work.

His contribution in parliament is really immense.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Dec 2019 22:15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MshU02dqkiQ

With RVS Mani on what led to the fall of Vajpayee Govt. It is not who you think.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 04 Dec 2019 22:37

Karan M wrote:With the latest New Yorker article, I submit Ayyub has crossed the line. The article clearly states she illegally facilitated the movement of a foreign national into Kashmir and collaborated in his illegal activities. If this is not treason, what is? Why exactly is the GOI sleeping on the wheel and letting her drum up an international campaign against India?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019 ... odis-india

As the reports cycled through the news, the journalist Rana Ayyub told me over the phone that she was heading to Kashmir. Ayyub, thirty-six years old, is one of India’s best-known investigative reporters, famous for relentlessly pursuing Modi and his aides. As a Muslim from Mumbai, she has lived on the country’s sectarian divide her whole life. She suspected that the government’s story about Kashmir was self-serving propaganda. “I think the repression is probably worse than it’s ever been,” she said. She didn’t know what she might find, but, she told me, “I want to speak to those unheard voices.”

In both Hindi and English, Ayyub speaks with disorienting speed and infectious warmth; it is difficult to resist answering her questions, but she might have another one before you finish responding to the first. On the phone, she invited me to meet her in Mumbai and try to get into Kashmir, even though foreign correspondents were banned there during the crackdown. When I arrived, she handed me a pair of scarves and told me to buy a kurta, the typical Indian tunic. “I am ninety-nine per cent sure you will be caught, but you should come anyway,” she said, laughing. “Just don’t open your mouth.”

Home Ministry needs to know that foreigners are being smuggled in.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 04 Dec 2019 22:40

At the hospital, we found a scene of barely restrained chaos, with security officers standing guard and families mixing with the sick in corridors. While I stood in a corner, trying to make myself inconspicuous, Ayyub ran to the fourth floor to speak to an eye doctor. After a few minutes, she returned and motioned for me and Rai to follow. “Ward eight,” she said. Thirty gunshot victims were inside.
“ ‘Too many tote bags,’ they said.”Cartoon by Will McPhail

As the three of us approached, a smartly dressed man with a close-cropped beard stepped into our path and placed his hand on Ayyub’s shoulder. “What are you doing here?” he said. Rai looked at me and quietly said, “Run.” I turned and dashed into the crowd. The bearded man took Ayyub and Rai by the arm and led them away.

This is also criminal activity.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Dec 2019 23:06

CPEC is quite successful.

It has led the pakis to increased avenues of trade with the hans.

629 Pakistani girls ‘sold’ as brides to Chinese men: AP news report

Activists and investigators claim that the Pakistani government has been trying very hard to put a lid on the investigations by applying immense pressure on officials from the Federal Investigation Agency pursuing trafficking networks.

The report claims that it is the latest number of girls/women yet caught up in the trafficking cases since 2018. However, the investigations into trafficking have been suppressed by the Pakistani government, lest they adversely impact its ties with Beijing. China has been an all-weather ally of Pakistan and perhaps the only country with a monetary heft to be siding with Pakistan. The Pakistani regime doesn’t want to irk its Chinese mandarins and therefore it has hustled the Pakistani investigators into putting brakes on the trafficking investigations.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 05 Dec 2019 00:11

Karan M wrote:
At the hospital, we found a scene of barely restrained chaos, with security officers standing guard and families mixing with the sick in corridors. While I stood in a corner, trying to make myself inconspicuous, Ayyub ran to the fourth floor to speak to an eye doctor. After a few minutes, she returned and motioned for me and Rai to follow. “Ward eight,” she said. Thirty gunshot victims were inside.
“ ‘Too many tote bags,’ they said.”Cartoon by Will McPhail

As the three of us approached, a smartly dressed man with a close-cropped beard stepped into our path and placed his hand on Ayyub’s shoulder. “What are you doing here?” he said. Rai looked at me and quietly said, “Run.” I turned and dashed into the crowd. The bearded man took Ayyub and Rai by the arm and led them away.
Rsatchi wrote:
Rony wrote:
https://twitter.com/WrongDoc/status/111 ... 82081?s=20

What is the story with lady!!!
Has she fled from India or worried like Zakir Naik to return
Major Arya had asked about some telephone number on the Teetar
Is there evidence to expose her as a ISI mole???
Majara kya hain????

There is no "evidence" as far as i know in open source to expose her apart from her articles and opinions. But neither did Fai until uncle decided to expose him. Christine didi once exchanging some barbs with ayub bibi on Paki topic on twitter blurted out at her saying "Your army and your ISI" at which point bibi called out her "bigotry". Subbu swamy's islamic pasand daughter suhasini haider stepped in and told bibi that christine didi tweeted that in mistake and will delete it which she did.
This is also criminal activity.

Sirji
As one of my Angrezi Teacher's used to say 'Still waters are Deep and Dangerous'
Yeh ladki bahut hee deep state is mili-juli laagte hain!!!
She should also be added to Zakir Naik gang!!!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 05 Dec 2019 00:23

https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1202106906770231297

Press Trust of India @PTI_News

AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi to address mega rally in Kolkata in January with an eye on 2021 assembly elections: party state president Zameerul Hasan.