2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6828
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Sachin wrote:
Dilbu wrote: Now there are rumours that business houses from minority communities (at least one) is having the media outlet by their bal$$ because they decide the advertisements. So under the old history of "fair play & neutrality" the news outlet is actually baying for the blood of Hindus.
Sachin, Isn't it that most of the media houses survive on advt by GoI or state govt otherwise they will shut shop in 2 days. Which minority owned business is giving that much advt to this newspaper to have them by the twist of their chaddi ?
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6529
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

It seems there is a lot of infighting in JH BJP. CM Das lost to ex-BJP MLA Saryu Roy. This is not new to JH BJP. Started with Marandi- Munda and continued since then. As for rejection of alliance with AJSU it cannot be RS seats. BJP would have won more RS seats if it were in alliance. So as the saying goes "what can be attributed to stupidity should not be attributed to..........".
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Karnataka man arrested in Dammam, Saudi Arabia for ‘blasphemous’ Facebook post calling for a Ram Mandir in Mecca
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/karnata ... dir-viral/
On the other hand, Harish has expressed his remorse over the posts uploaded by him. In a video, Harish can be seen beseeching forgiveness from Muslims for his Facebook post. In the video, he says, “I have committed a mistake. Please forgive me. I will never upload any such posts again. I have faced a lot of difficulties prior to coming to Dammam. I seek forgiveness from my Muslim brothers. I am facing problems with my company. Please forgive me.” However, it could not be ascertained when was the video made.

The incident serves as a grim reminder to Indians staying in the Islamic countries where comments and actions considered disrespectful for Islam come under the scrutiny of harsh blasphemy laws.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

sudarshan wrote: Muslims should not be excluded from the CAA. Why? Because Muslims are also persecuted in Muslim lands. So Muslims are not safe in Muslim majority lands. And the only way they can be safe is in Hindu majority India. In effect, the only place any minority can be safe, is in a Hindu majority rashtra.
WELL!!! Sounds like a massive self goal.
Taking a break here, and serving as Shaitan ka Vakeel:
Let's say I was a worshipper of Shaitan. And the guvrmand, known for its genocidal propensities against my co-Shaitanites, passes a law amending the Citizenship Act. I can't read, and I don't trust what is written in any book except the Great Kitab, which I can also not read, but get "quoted" to me ever Saturday at noon.
I am told that this Law says that Shaitanites will be excluded from (something).
Would I not burn buses and shoot at polis, hain? Here is my reasoning:
1. If "whatever" was something that Shaitanites don't want, then there is no need for a law to exclude us.
2. I do not consider it possible that it is something where Shaitanites must be saved - these genocidal guvrmandees would not go to any trouble to PROTECT shaitanites.
So it is clear that the whole purpose of the law is to take away rights of Shaitanites.
And NO ONE takes anything away from our Shaitanite commyoonity without having their buses burned.
So your logic about which country will accept Shaitanite citizens only proves your intent to drive Shaitaites like me from OUR land, that my ancestors won in (mass-murdering conquest against the Unbelievers.
There is no self-goal here except by those using your logic.

I think the real question here is ***WHY*** GOI chose to use any religious designation. Would a simple "persecution" test not be enough?
Answer: If GOI starts accepting that Muslims are persecuted in Pak/BD, then the claim that only Hindus and Xtians and Buddhists are persecuted in Pak/BD gets blown. Trouble is, many Muslims will claim such persecution. Sunnis are surely persecuted in POK by evil Shia. Also by evil Ahmadiya in Krachi. By anti-corruption polis in BD.

Taslima Nasreen is persecuted


Perhaps that is a more serious self-goal than using the word "Muslim" in the exclusion.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34837
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

sudarshan wrote:
arshyam wrote: Actually, the Nazis used an old Germanic symbol, called the hooked cross (Hakenkreuz), which sort of looks like an angled Swastika. This symbol was a Christian symbol and had nothing to do with us. But the common perception has been built that they adapted the Swastika for their ends, and now we get to bear the cross of Nazi hatred (pun not intended). It's become so accepted that a simple search for Hakenkreuz on big G points only to Swastika. G translation service does even better - entering "Hakenkreuz" in German results in Swastika in English.

Thanks to JEM saar for mentioning this in his article that he linked above; reading that reminded me to come back and post this. I had earlier read about this in an article by True Indology published on Swarajya (Hitler Never Used Swastika: Evangelical Defamation Of Hindu Symbol)
Hmm ok, will look that up. I'm still inclined to believe what I originally said, but open to change my mind upon further reading.

Now that I think about it - what the CAA protestors are in effect saying is this (forget the fact that most of them are clueless about what they are protesting about) -

Muslims should not be excluded from the CAA. Why?

Because Muslims are also persecuted in Muslim lands.

So Muslims are not safe in Muslim majority lands.

And the only way they can be safe is in Hindu majority India. In effect, the only place any minority can be safe, is in a Hindu majority rashtra.

WELL!!! Sounds like a massive self goal.
no one there is interested in "self goals"

They simply want to invade the tent and piss inside it as they have been doing for untold centuries now :mrgreen:
sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3041
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sudarshan »

chetak wrote: no one there is interested in "self goals"

They simply want to invade the tent and piss inside it as they have been doing for untold centuries now :mrgreen:
(Also to UB ji)

It's still something to parade in front of fence-sitters. Something I learned from trolls on BRF. It's worthwhile to showcase their logical fallacies in front of the silent listeners and lurkers. The trolls of course don't care.

UB ji - not sure if there's some misunderstanding. I was saying that the self goal is on the part of the anti-CAAites, not GOI.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34837
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

UlanBatori wrote:
sudarshan wrote: Muslims should not be excluded from the CAA. Why? Because Muslims are also persecuted in Muslim lands. So Muslims are not safe in Muslim majority lands. And the only way they can be safe is in Hindu majority India. In effect, the only place any minority can be safe, is in a Hindu majority rashtra.
WELL!!! Sounds like a massive self goal.
Taking a break here, and serving as Shaitan ka Vakeel:
Let's say I was a worshipper of Shaitan. And the guvrmand, known for its genocidal propensities against my co-Shaitanites, passes a law amending the Citizenship Act. I can't read, and I don't trust what is written in any book except the Great Kitab, which I can also not read, but get "quoted" to me ever Saturday at noon.
I am told that this Law says that Shaitanites will be excluded from (something).
Would I not burn buses and shoot at polis, hain? Here is my reasoning:
1. If "whatever" was something that Shaitanites don't want, then there is no need for a law to exclude us.
2. I do not consider it possible that it is something where Shaitanites must be saved - these genocidal guvrmandees would not go to any trouble to PROTECT shaitanites.
So it is clear that the whole purpose of the law is to take away rights of Shaitanites.
And NO ONE takes anything away from our Shaitanite commyoonity without having their buses burned.
So your logic about which country will accept Shaitanite citizens only proves your intent to drive Shaitaites like me from OUR land, that my ancestors won in (mass-murdering conquest against the Unbelievers.
There is no self-goal here except by those using your logic.

I think the real question here is ***WHY*** GOI chose to use any religious designation. Would a simple "persecution" test not be enough?
Answer: If GOI starts accepting that Muslims are persecuted in Pak/BD, then the claim that only Hindus and Xtians and Buddhists are persecuted in Pak/BD gets blown. Trouble is, many Muslims will claim such persecution. Sunnis are surely persecuted in POK by evil Shia. Also by evil Ahmadiya in Krachi. By anti-corruption polis in BD.

Taslima Nasreen is persecuted


Perhaps that is a more serious self-goal than using the word "Muslim" in the exclusion.
sirji,



this lady is a passport holding swedish citizen.

she gets paid social security from the swedish govt which she spends here and that amount is quite comfortable to fund her stay in India.

She is extremely ungrateful and wilfully chooses to comment on every matter that just does not concern her and it violates the maryada of a guest as understood in our culture.

she is not really "persecuted" but claims that she is just to keep the govt on the backfoot.

she should be sent back to sweden as she has no business in India beyond insulting her hosts.

In the end, she is a true entitled malsi, and no different from any of the other sharia pasand crowd
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 9117
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Sachin, Isn't it that most of the media houses survive on advt by GoI or state govt otherwise they will shut shop in 2 days. Which minority owned business is giving that much advt to this newspaper to have them by the twist of their chaddi ?
I am talking about this Media group in Kerala. They started off as a pro-Independence news paper during the Independence struggle days. Later some petty politicians and businessmen managed to buy out the shares of this group. First the politician used this news paper to parrot his political thoughts. He is an expert political trapeze artist, and have joined pretty much all parties except the BJP. The news paper also does the trapeze jumps based on the politician's stand. It would be in the last two years that things even went south. The media group published some thing against Islam. The various clerics and Islamic organisations called for the boycott of the media house. Their core base was actually in Central & North Kerla where Islamics have clout. The news paper agents refused to deliver the news paper, businesses owned by Muslims never subscribed or gave advertisements. Ad revenue from Middle East also dried out. And from then on, this media outlet have become a paid piper of the Islamists. How the Islamists achieved this is not out in the open. They were considered to be very neutral, and thus many Hindus still subscribed to it.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

Supratik wrote:It seems there is a lot of infighting in JH BJP. CM Das lost to ex-BJP MLA Saryu Roy. This is not new to JH BJP. Started with Marandi- Munda and continued since then. As for rejection of alliance with AJSU it cannot be RS seats. BJP would have won more RS seats if it were in alliance. So as the saying goes "what can be attributed to stupidity should not be attributed to..........".
Whatever maybe the reason, the optics for state election results for BJP don't look good. Last year BJP lost MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgarh, then they were cheated out of Maha, and now clean defeat in Jharkand. Haryana was a close shave. (Interestingly, BJP got the largest vote share in Jharkand: http://results.eci.gov.in/ACDEC2019/par ... lt-S27.htm).

Question for BJP stalwarts is how to make Hinduthva an overwhelming unifying force and rallying point across Hindus?. Without this, we are back to same old caseteist, dynastic, Jiahdi appeasement, politics which have rendered India a eunuch basket case under Italian dynasty.
KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4849
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Karthik S wrote:Bingo vikas ji, other side has "propaganda" channels, we just need a channel that tells the truth, BJP could have helped opindia etc. Even in states where BJP is weak but is ripe, you got people like Maridhas Madhan in TN who are swimming against the tide but also face assault (verbal so far) from other parties. It may have won 303, but actually BJP had the potential to win lot more in only they worried about information warfare.
I don't see how we can avoid the conclusion that the RSS-BJP combine doesn't seem to believe in things like controlling the narrative, getting ahead of the story, or just PR and orchestrated communication in general. Even Modi, who is devastatingly effective with punching back when in election mode, comes across as weak and hesitant in the governance phase when explaining with clarity and force what his government is doing and why, and getting public opinion on his side in a demonstrable way--the last bit is key: in this day and age, having a "silent majority" is useless. It's a hard thing to say, but the way Modi & Shah left the field completely open for the enemy post-CAA, first in Assam and now all over India, is inexcusable incompetence. No "chankian strategy" wishful thinking and spin will do.

I have no idea whether this deficiency springs from an old-school Indic ethic of "good things don't need propaganda" or maybe "truth will assert itself (satyameva jayate)" but maybe they should reflect that the wise saying doesn't put any timeframe on truth prevailing or the human and civilizational cost before the blessed event happens.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

Talking about how soft BJP/RSS spokesman are, I mean GVL Narsimha Rao or Desh Ratan Nigam cannot hurt a little fly, what stops BJP from exposing the 'secular', 'liberal', Sonia Sena louts? Please see video below. Imagine if the young man so humiliated was a Muslim, and Sonia Sena were indeed Shiv Sena allied with BJP, how much propaganda value the other side would have derived? This video would have been the front ages of NYT/WP posted by our own people with headline "Modi's India"

https://twitter.com/i/status/1209082036214009857
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

What ppl need to consider is the Thoughtful Muslim Indian Citjen's real reason for conjarn:

If this goes through... the 50% mynawrity rejerbashun and the blanket exemption and generous baksheesh for mynawrity ejjikashunal institutions, are both exposed.
From MAD pov, having riots for this inconsequential stuff is far better. With the netas inside, or on digital photo database, and the credbility of the Opposition badly dented for Crying Wolf, it will be more difficult to raise mobs for those.

These are (and should be) the real targets. I know ppl who think that education is headed for absolute disaster unless the above reforms are implemented fast. Time is running out for MAD.

The Inside Tent Bisser's days of bliss are numbered. All the moves so far are just probing maneuvers compared to those.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

CRamS wrote:(Interestingly, BJP got the largest vote share in Jharkand: http://results.eci.gov.in/ACDEC2019/par ... lt-S27.htm).
Question for BJP stalwarts is how to make Hinduthva an overwhelming unifying force and rallying point across Hindus?. Without this, we are back to same old caseteist, dynastic, Jiahdi appeasement, politics which have rendered India a eunuch basket case under Italian dynasty.
So the real difference is that the antis have united against BeeJayPee. In MH this came out so stunningly: BJP either had to play 2nd fiddle to the goons, or let the goons rule.

Appeasing crooks and parochial tribes don't work. They are all united against Indian nationalism, and are willing to discard all their pretences, to unite. Shiv Sena with Sonia Sena!

This unity of the enemy has to be recognized. Which is why I say that the NDA has to do things that **REALLY MATTER*** to the Another Community. Like scrapping the very high minority quota across the board. Reduce by 0: from 50 to 5%. Scrap designation of several communities from SC-ST to mainstream Indians.
banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 439
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by banrjeer »

UlanBatori wrote:
CRamS wrote:(Interestingly, BJP got the largest vote share in Jharkand: http://results.eci.gov.in/ACDEC2019/par ... lt-S27.htm).
Question for BJP stalwarts is how to make Hinduthva an overwhelming unifying force and rallying point across Hindus?. Without this, we are back to same old caseteist, dynastic, Jiahdi appeasement, politics which have rendered India a eunuch basket case under Italian dynasty.
So the real difference is that the antis have united against BeeJayPee. In MH this came out so stunningly: BJP either had to play 2nd fiddle to the goons, or let the goons rule.

Appeasing crooks and parochial tribes don't work. They are all united against Indian nationalism, and are willing to discard all their pretences, to unite. Shiv Sena with Sonia Sena!

This unity of the enemy has to be recognized. Which is why I say that the NDA has to do things that **REALLY MATTER*** to the Another Community. Like scrapping the very high minority quota across the board. Reduce by 0: from 50 to 5%. Scrap designation of several communities from SC-ST to mainstream Indians.
Hindutva alone will never be enough. It was an OK to get the foot in the door and can only go so far, but you cannot reuse the same trick all the time.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

Eventually IMO, with warfare and disintegration avoided, and years of stable govt, the political system will evolve into 2 huge parties, both nationalist etc, with policies that look more or less alike. And spend all the time trying to impeach each other while the criminal element, as corporate CEOs plunders and enslaves the people.

If u think about it, BJP came from Cong(O), Jana Sangh, Swatantra Party etc. All united by opposition to IG.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

Its high time, BJP throws out that sanctimonious loud mouth Pawan Verma out of the alliance.
Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1289
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sicanta »

Losing states is bad. Keeping aside optics, the opposition is getting access to power corridor to refill their kitty bags. This money will be used to cause further trouble elsewhere.
eklavya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2181
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by eklavya »

CRamS wrote:
Supratik wrote:Interestingly, BJP got the largest vote share in Jharkand: http://results.eci.gov.in/ACDEC2019/par ... lt-S27.htm).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Jhar ... y_election

BJP contested 79 of 81 seats. Won in 25. 33.4% vote share.

JMM contested 43 seats, won in 30. 18.7% vote share.
INC contested 31 seats, won in 16. 13.9% vote share.
RJD contested 7 seats, won in 1. 2.7% vote share.
Combined vote share 35.3%.
prasan
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 87
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 19:36

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by prasan »

Beautiful explaination for Jharkhand Debacle

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/apmbjp/status/1209007327782850561
A.P. Muruganandam முருகானந்தம் @apmbjp

Kerala based jihadis who were protesting in Dubai against Indian govt. have been rounded up by Dubai police and jailed. They will have to pay a fine of Rs. 3 lakhs and will be sent back to India. They will not be able to enter Dubai ever again.
:rotfl: Don't know if this is true or just another rumor on twitter.

https://twitter.com/CNNViews18/status/1 ... 6156895234
@CNNews18 @CNNViews18

#Breaking: AAP नेता मनीष सिसोदिया ने मुख्यमंत्री पद पे लग रही अटकलों पे दिया जवाब , कहा " अमानतुल्ला जी या केजरीवाल ये पार्टी का आंतरिक मामला है, बहुत जल्द निष्कर्ष पर पहुँच कर मीडिया को देंगे जवाब" ।

Translated from Hindi by

#Breaking : AAP leader Manish Sisodia responded to the speculation on the Chief Minister's post, saying "Amanatullah ji or Kejriwal is an internal matter of the party, will reach the conclusion very soon and give a reply to the media".
Confirmation of a rumor floating on SM. Amanatullah is making a play for CMship of Delhi! Khuajali is banking on the Muslim vote as his base vote, hence the Muslim face of AAP feels that he is entitled to the CMship. Theek hai.

https://twitter.com/BhutaniChetan/statu ... 2087116800
Chetan Bhutani @BhutaniChetan

Two big items on Cabinet agenda which meets tomorrow at 10:30 am. Cabinet likely to take up Rs 8700 Cr proposal for Census & updating National Population Register. Cabinet likely to take up "Atal Bhujal Yojana" worth Rs. 6000 Cr for sustainable mgmt of ground water resources.
So no NRC for now only Census and NPR.
Last edited by pankajs on 24 Dec 2019 01:28, edited 1 time in total.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

eklavya wrote:
CRamS wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Jhar ... y_election

BJP contested 79 of 81 seats. Won in 25. 33.4% vote share.

JMM contested 43 seats, won in 30. 18.7% vote share.
INC contested 31 seats, won in 16. 13.9% vote share.
RJD contested 7 seats, won in 1. 2.7% vote share.
Combined vote share 35.3%.
Data scientists spend about 70%-80% on data exploration, which alone says a lot. So these #s are insightful. Because contrary to my optimistic claim that BJP got 35+% of vote share, when you look at that statsitic in terms of the # of seats contested, and contrast that with sJMM's superb hit rate and vote share, BJP's performance is dismal. This was a comprehensive defeat, no point spinning it any other way.

I laugh when I see sanctimonious frauds like Yogendara Yadav, Pawan Varma etc spin this as 'enlightened' opposition putting a brake on BJP's 'divisive' policies. I mean do these morons even think before pontificating? By all accounts that I read, JMM is a corrupt, casteist, and dynastic party. But oh that kind of divisiveness is OK, its only BJP's so called 'divisiveness' is bad for the 'idea of India'.

The ghosts of Jharkand and other state losses will be buried if BJP can pull of Delhi? What are the chances?

Also, I would urge BJP/RSS leadership to put out out more loud-moth eloquent dog fighters as spokesman than softie lightweights like Geeta Bhatt, Vivek Reddy, GVLN etc (however much I respect them). Gaurav Bhatia is good but he needs help.

I mean take the following case that got me riled up. Mullah Sreenivasn Jain was badgering Vivek Reddy on ModiJi's so called 'communal' remark about identifying rioting louts by their clothes. In response Vivek Reddy was all over the place and it was obvious he was being defensive and ducking. Instead what prevents BJP from saying, yes, ModiJi meant Jihadi rioters and arsonists and traitors. What is wrong with that? Doesn't the same opposition and its mullahs like Jain berate BJP, berate RSS, berate Sangh, and indirectly blame Hindus for every random killing in which a Muslim is a victim? Why is it communal for ModiJi to call out Jihadi scum bags? Why be defensive?
ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2564
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ShyamSP »

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/jha ... 2019-12-23

Sorry to add India Today's idiot journalist Rajdeep Sardesai's twitter photo of BJP footprint after Jharkhand loss. But this change can make anti-Hindus bolder.
Image
ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2564
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ShyamSP »

Also I noticed a lot of Christian first or last names for several contestants which is something we don't see say in AP yet where they still retain Hindu names. Jharkhand is also going away for Dharmics?
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

UP police arrest PFI’s Uttar Pradesh head Waseem for allegedly masterminding violence during anti-CAA protests
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/up-poli ... -violence/
According to the police, the PFI played an instrumental role in inciting violence in several parts of Uttar Pradesh, especially its capital, Lucknow. Waseem’s key aides, Nadeem and Ashfaq were also arrested for allegedly engineering violence during the anti-CAA and anti-NRC protests in Lucknow. Maulana Shadab and 11 members of the PFI were earlier arrested in Shamli in similar cases.

In addition to Waseem, Nadeem and Ashfaq, the police have also arrested Robin Verma and Mohammad Shoaib of the Rihai Manch for their role in instigating the mob. Nadeem and Ashfaq were accused of inciting people for the protest through WhatsApp and other social media platforms by sharing literature and video, SSP said.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9365
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

why is 370, RJB not getting votes for BJP?
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9365
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

From known sources in JH
Raghubar Das was hugely unpopular . Known for his gaffe. Once he said (and backtracked ) JH will be first adivasi mukt pradesh,
Tribal anger against BJP for diluting land acquisition which was exclusive right of tribal.
Churches, Naxal joining hands throwing weight behind alliance.
Anti conversion bill galvanised converted tribals, STs (money bags denied)
BJP alone without partners. While on the other side opposition stitching alliance, cobbling votes together.
Saryu Rai & other Vibhishan working against BJP.
Inducting epitome of corruption and murderers in JH BJP played against optics.
While BJP is supposed to play by rule boook other side is OK to do Shiv Sena.
But R Das is the biggest factor in getting BJP drowned.
Did Amit Shah wanted Raghubar Das to get a reality check ? If yes then price is huge.
KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9926
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

What I don't understand is this idea of "unpopular leader". Why won't BJP hold internal elections in a state and let popular neta emerge instead of just nominating someone from Dilli?
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

IndraD wrote:why is 370, RJB not getting votes for BJP?
370 and RJB are not roti-kapda-jhompadi or baink balance. Onion price was manipulated IMO precisely for Jharkhand election. Trouble is, it is now Centre-vs. States. Tough to implement sabka vikas.

Which means MAD had better go directly to the Panchayats.
kiranA
BRFite
Posts: 375
Joined: 25 Dec 2016 09:37

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kiranA »

One instructive thing to notice is the almost complete absence of protests in AP. Some people think there are barely any muslims in AP. That's totally untrue in Rayalaseema districts the percentages go up to 30s - you are talking about bengal level demographics here. Then what is the reason here ? especially when both ruling YSRCP and TDP voted in favor of CAB bill. A lot of BJP allies such as akali dal and BJD went back on their vote but AP parties did not. But not a sound from muslims there - Do andhra muslims have more trust in modi/shah?

Ofcourse not. But what they do have is complete faith in political system of Ap and its regional parties to deliver justice on behalf. Something that both PM and HM are falling over themselves to clarify but not getting any believers. Then why is the political system of AP so much more credible for muslims ? simple - there are no "national" parties - congress or bjp - to play mischief. This is perhaps the only major state where "national" parties are reduced to less than 1 percent vote share. I cannot help but notice the mischief these parties played in the name of india in assam, kashmir, punjab. Especially in assam. One party completely ignored Assamese protests at getting swamped by bangaldeshis treating assamese as some sort of joke. The other pretended to be interested in them and flipped when its own processes proved that it is hindus who are swamping assamese.

On another note I have been studying the history of Kerala these days - absolutely fascinating. Perhaps one of the most colorful if not the THE most among southern cultures. That got me wondering what are these proud folks doing getting commies, congressis, RSS/BJP to talk for them. why not their own local party ? All these "nationals" failed them in most issues especially the ayappa controversy. THe same congress which broke locks on ram temples , the same BJP which did so much for ram mandir, the same supreme court which gave such favorful judgement to ayodhya - all took opposite stance. Even RSS saw it as womens rights issue. The thing is they will never get it. I am sure 90% of RSS never even heard of a god named Ayappa.

Get your own party brothers - find your own voice :)
KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9926
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

If Congress with no power is able to play mischief with the BJP with all the power, then it's a problem with Modi and Shah. They need to twist some testimonials quick. They did a great job on that front with 370, not so much here.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13573
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

prasan wrote:Leaving out Muslims is not ‘glaringly discriminatory’: A Response to the open letter published in the web portal, The Leaflet to Harish Salve, Sr. Advocate
... viz Sunni, Shia, Ahmadiyas, Baathis, Bohra, etc. They believe in different forms, expressions, and colours of Quran
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/harish- ... -response/
Where do Baha'ii fit in? They are also Muslims right?
khan
BRFite
Posts: 830
Joined: 12 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Tx

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by khan »

For the good of India, BJP needs to focus on economy, get back to 7%+ ASAP.

This communal nonsense they have been doing for the last couple of months is complete stupidity. I hope for India’s sake that there is a course correction ASAP.

At this point, when people fear for their safety, they WILL cohere - even with strange bedfellows like we just saw in Maharashtra.

Having these kitchdi governments that can’t do anything except check BJP power is bad for India and bad for development - which is what India needs.

Personally, I don’t understand this obsession with a “Dharmic” Government - aam Janta will be happy with some heathen Government that can produce economic growth.

If BJP isn’t careful, that’s exactly how things can end up. They need to be laser focused on the economy.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

khan wrote:For the good of India, BJP needs to focus on economy, get back to 7%+ ASAP.

This communal nonsense they have been doing for the last couple of months is complete stupidity. I hope for India’s sake that there is a course correction ASAP.
At this point, when people fear for their safety, they WILL cohere - even with strange bedfellows like we just saw in Maharashtra.
Having these kitchdi governments that can’t do anything except check BJP power is bad for India and bad for development - which is what India needs.
Personally, I don’t understand this obsession with a “Dharmic” Government - aam Janta will be happy with some heathen Government that can produce economic growth.
If BJP isn’t careful, that’s exactly how things can end up. They need to be laser focused on the economy.
er.. May I point out that
1) Zapping Art 370 is not "communal": it is a long-deferred unfinished business from 1948.
2) It was **NOT*** the BJP that came out with the RJB decision. It happened to be a Supreme Court of India decision, for a case that has been brewing for over 70 years.
3) The CAA is an effort to tackle the loss of control on citizenship.

What I am saying is that for the voter who elected BJP, there is a ***LOT** of un-touched issues.
1) Minority quotas in jobs
2) Illegal Conversion
3) Counterfeit money from Islamic coutnries (maybe from China, but I have not seen evidence of that)
4) Persecution of Hindus in W. Bengal, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Kerala and Tamil Nadu
5) Carte blanche for corruption in minority-run educational institutions.
6) Land-grabs by minority institutions such as churches and Islamic organizations - usually with black money.

If BJP really gets worried about its performance in elections, it needs to get the govt. moving on the above issues.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

GOI kicks out snooty Oiropean
Told to exit India for protesting against CAA: German student at IIT Madras
During a protest in Chennai against the CAA and NRC, he had carried a poster that said: “1933 to 1945; We Have Been There” (a reference to the Nazi regime in Germany).

Lindenthal was scheduled to fly out late Monday night.

A German student in the Master’s course in the Department of Physics at IIT Madras, part of a one-year exchange programme, has said that he was asked to leave the country “immediately” days after he attended protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) in the campus. Speaking to The Indian Express from the Chennai airport shortly before his scheduled flight home Monday night, Jakob Lindenthal said he received “oral directions” to leave India from the Foreigners Regional Registration Office in (FRRO) in Chennai around noon.

Lindenthal was in Bangalore for the past few days participating in a “sports tournament” when, he says, he received the first email from FRRO. During a protest in Chennai against the CAA and NRC, he had carried a poster that said: “1933 to 1945; We Have Been There” (a reference to the Nazi regime in Germany).

“After I reached Chennai this morning, my course coordinator advised me to meet immigration officials immediately. When I reached there, they cited some administrative issues related to my residential permit in India. After I resolved their queries and it was clear that there were no issues regarding my residential permit, they started asking me about my politics and hobbies. It was an extensive casual conversation. They asked about CAA and my participation in anti-CAA protests. We discussed the demonstration culture. There were three officers including one who asked me all questions. All of them were unnamed. Towards the end of the conversation, they said I may have to leave the country immediately for violating my student visa rules. When I asked for a written letter, they returned my passport and said that I may leave. They said I will get the written letter but I did not receive one. Soon, I rushed back to IIT campus, booked my ticket, packed everything and left for the airport,” he said.
“I received a call from an official in the Dean’s office. She suggested that I may leave tomorrow. Since it is going to be Christmas eve tomorrow, I chose to leave immediately,” said Lindenthal, adding that he was yet to inform his parents.
Hailing from southern Germany, Lindenthal, halfway in the IIT programme, said that questions about his participation in protests also included his proximity to a Marxist group, Chinta Bar, which organised the protest in IIT-M.
“I distanced myself from all such groups, I explained. At one point, the officer, referring to my decision to take part in protests, said I was uninformed, that I should not have attended protests when I didn’t know what I was protesting about. I disagreed. I replied that it was all about basic human rights of people…The conversation was not aggressive, I was moderate in my answers and explained my views,” he said.
In a statement tonight, Chinta Bar said it “extends solidarity and gratitude to Jakob for being part of struggle to protect the rights of people in this country and his concern for humanity.”
“I do love the IIT-M campus, I love India but I am concerned about illiberal extremes in the country…In Germany, nobody is ever evicted for participating in a legal demonstration,” Lindenthal said.
When contacted, IIT Director Bhaskar Ramamurthy said he was out of station and did not know about the incident. When contacted by The Indian Express, both K Sethupathi, head of the Department of Physics, and S Sivakumar, Dean of Students, said they were unaware of the “incident” involving Lindenthal. Sources said an IIT official had sent a report about Lindenthal’s participation in the protests to “higher-ups.” Asked about this, Sivakumar said he wasn’t aware of such a report.
A senior FRRO official, saying he was unaware of Lindenthal’s case, told The Indian Express that if the German student had attended a protest, it was a “clear case” of violating visa rules for foreigners staying in India. “If there is a violation, the institution is bound to report the matter to authorities…FRRO comes much later in issuing a letter to leave the country with immediate effect…This isn’t the same as deportation. His visa may be cancelled soon,” the official said.
“A security official accompanied me to the security gate at the airport as they knew about my trip,” Lindenthal said. “I will be in Europe Tuesday morning,” he said.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

UBCN notes that anti-caa riots have gone completely out of desi mainstream media.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3894
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kakkaji »

KJo wrote:What I don't understand is this idea of "unpopular leader". Why won't BJP hold internal elections in a state and let popular neta emerge instead of just nominating someone from Dilli?
+1
ShyamSP
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2564
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ShyamSP »

kiranA wrote:One instructive thing to notice is the almost complete absence of protests in AP. Some people think there are barely any muslims in AP. That's totally untrue in Rayalaseema districts the percentages go up to 30s - you are talking about bengal level demographics here. Then what is the reason here ? especially when both ruling YSRCP and TDP voted in favor of CAB bill. A lot of BJP allies such as akali dal and BJD went back on their vote but AP parties did not. But not a sound from muslims there - Do andhra muslims have more trust in modi/shah?

Ofcourse not. But what they do have is complete faith in political system of Ap and its regional parties to deliver justice on behalf. Something that both PM and HM are falling over themselves to clarify but not getting any believers. Then why is the political system of AP so much more credible for muslims ? simple - there are no "national" parties - congress or bjp - to play mischief. This is perhaps the only major state where "national" parties are reduced to less than 1 percent vote share. I cannot help but notice the mischief these parties played in the name of india in assam, kashmir, punjab. Especially in assam. One party completely ignored Assamese protests at getting swamped by bangaldeshis treating assamese as some sort of joke. The other pretended to be interested in them and flipped when its own processes proved that it is hindus who are swamping assamese.

On another note I have been studying the history of Kerala these days - absolutely fascinating. Perhaps one of the most colorful if not the THE most among southern cultures. That got me wondering what are these proud folks doing getting commies, congressis, RSS/BJP to talk for them. why not their own local party ? All these "nationals" failed them in most issues especially the ayappa controversy. THe same congress which broke locks on ram temples , the same BJP which did so much for ram mandir, the same supreme court which gave such favorful judgement to ayodhya - all took opposite stance. Even RSS saw it as womens rights issue. The thing is they will never get it. I am sure 90% of RSS never even heard of a god named Ayappa.

Get your own party brothers - find your own voice :)
We Are Totally Against To NRC Bill : AP CM YS Jagan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TSRxJs48cg
(Say and do one thing in Delhi to be in good books of BJP as he has several cases pending to send him to jail. Say another thing is AP or local language)

This is example like that:
Image

To fool -seudo=secular Indians, wall writings in English, Hindi say "secular India, we are one, etc", In Arabic writing goes, "lā ʾilāha ʾillā llāhu..." - "There is no God but Allah..."
khan
BRFite
Posts: 830
Joined: 12 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Tx

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by khan »

UlanBatori wrote: What I am saying is that for the voter who elected BJP, there is a ***LOT** of un-touched issues.
1) Minority quotas in jobs
2) Illegal Conversion
3) Counterfeit money from Islamic coutnries (maybe from China, but I have not seen evidence of that)
4) Persecution of Hindus in W. Bengal, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Kerala and Tamil Nadu
5) Carte blanche for corruption in minority-run educational institutions.
6) Land-grabs by minority institutions such as churches and Islamic organizations - usually with black money.

If BJP really gets worried about its performance in elections, it needs to get the govt. moving on the above issues
.
All these things don’t matter if people have no jobs, have no hope & are going to sleep hungry.

Modi isn’t even giving lip-service to the economy. He was elected because people liked what he did with the Gujarat economy. He is not delivering and the results can be seen in that 2017 vs 2019 political map that is doing the rounds.

What is the maximum percentage of the population is motivated by the points you noted? My guess is less than 20% - maybe something like 5%. For the rest it is roti, kapada, makan, naukri...

I have even stopped checking out the Military Affairs forum, because without a healthy economy, there is no point jerk**g off to Rafales.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

The parents of a hard-working Hindu boy who gets good marks but cannot find a job - which is given to the lazy flunky classmate who happened to be of a Special Category, care.
But for the rest, the problem facing BJP/Modi is different. It is actually bred by success.
Well-fed people who can sleep late (I for example) do not bother to vote. Angry people, and people who are paid to go vote, or ordered to go vote, vote.
When resources are scarce and jobs are scarce, having 50% reserved for non-merit non-performers, and limitless baksheesh to some people, ARE issues that raise anger. BJP needs to show its supporters that they can have hope that these evils will be removed.

The other side is that the Indian rural resident IS seeing cash flow now - dramatic change in the past 5 years. And BJP needs to understand that as they get cash, they go buy TV sets - and watch CNN and Darka Bhatt, where before they used to sit in rapt attention as the likes of Pragyaji delivered their firebrand speeches. BJP does not have a well-laid-out alternative path for the upwardly-mobile rural resident.

BJP also needs to clean out its geriatric-infested netaship in the States and allow firebrand youngsters to come up. Look at both MH and JH: cretis/goons won - but they are YOUNG cretins/goons. The political power is fast shifting down in average age - and BJP/NDA is losing its grip on Young India.
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

UlanBatori wrote:
sudarshan wrote: Muslims should not be excluded from the CAA. Why? Because Muslims are also persecuted in Muslim lands. So Muslims are not safe in Muslim majority lands. And the only way they can be safe is in Hindu majority India. In effect, the only place any minority can be safe, is in a Hindu majority rashtra.
WELL!!! Sounds like a massive self goal.
Taking a break here, and serving as Shaitan ka Vakeel:
Let's say I was a worshipper of Shaitan. And the guvrmand, known for its genocidal propensities against my co-Shaitanites, passes a law amending the Citizenship Act. I can't read, and I don't trust what is written in any book except the Great Kitab, which I can also not read, but get "quoted" to me ever Saturday at noon.
I am told that this Law says that Shaitanites will be excluded from (something).
Would I not burn buses and shoot at polis, hain? Here is my reasoning:
1. If "whatever" was something that Shaitanites don't want, then there is no need for a law to exclude us.
2. I do not consider it possible that it is something where Shaitanites must be saved - these genocidal guvrmandees would not go to any trouble to PROTECT shaitanites.
So it is clear that the whole purpose of the law is to take away rights of Shaitanites.
And NO ONE takes anything away from our Shaitanite commyoonity without having their buses burned.
So your logic about which country will accept Shaitanite citizens only proves your intent to drive Shaitaites like me from OUR land, that my ancestors won in (mass-murdering conquest against the Unbelievers.
There is no self-goal here except by those using your logic.

I think the real question here is ***WHY*** GOI chose to use any religious designation. Would a simple "persecution" test not be enough?
Answer: If GOI starts accepting that Muslims are persecuted in Pak/BD, then the claim that only Hindus and Xtians and Buddhists are persecuted in Pak/BD gets blown. Trouble is, many Muslims will claim such persecution. Sunnis are surely persecuted in POK by evil Shia. Also by evil Ahmadiya in Krachi. By anti-corruption polis in BD.

Taslima Nasreen is persecuted


Perhaps that is a more serious self-goal than using the word "Muslim" in the exclusion.

:rotfl: :rotfl:

this is probably the funniest post by yak herding mongol.
Locked