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Vamsee wrote:Right now Trump/US' credibility is online. So we are most likely see at least aerial attack from US.
*If* US-Iran war escalates, there are 3 important issues that will impact India.
1) Large number of Indians working in Middle East. We need to take care of their safety (Econ-impact)
2) Oil prices will spike & impact us negatively(econ-impact)
3) If US takes help from pak to attack Iran, we can be dead certain that pak will ask for its pound of flesh(military equipment + baksheesh money) which US will pay. This will have a negative impact on us (strategic).
--Vamsee
By force of habit, the US-Pak BJ will continue but this time around they can be given a hint to hedge also with the Baloch to balance increasing dependence on chin-pak.
Baloch are not in a commanding position but at least the seeds can be planted so that in the future Unkil can wean itself away.
Vamsee wrote:Right now Trump/US' credibility is online. So we are most likely see at least aerial attack from US.
*If* US-Iran war escalates, there are 3 important issues that will impact India.
1) Large number of Indians working in Middle East. We need to take care of their safety (Econ-impact)
2) Oil prices will spike & impact us negatively(econ-impact)
3) If US takes help from pak to attack Iran, we can be dead certain that pak will ask for its pound of flesh(military equipment + baksheesh money) which US will pay. This will have a negative impact on us (strategic).
--Vamsee
sir, paki help to bomb what sand dunes and tribals in zaranz or in sistan balochistan? most of cities and bases in iran are on western borders..see the things closer to so many bases in saudi iraq, kuwait..heck even afghan bases can be used....US is not going to mount a land invasion of iran...unless of course an aircraft carrier is sunk..(i think that would call for nuking by amrikhan..)
another volley of missile strikes on a number of American facilities in Iraq, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The new round of missiles follows the first by just over an hour.
“A few minutes ago [3:30 am local time] the second wave of Iranian missile attacks on the US base is launched,” the news outlet reported.
The Pentagon confirmed earlier on Tuesday that “more than a dozen” Iranian ballistic missiles had been fired on US bases, including the Al-Asad airbase in western Iraq, vowing to “take necessary measures” to protect American personnel in the region.
Added later:
AP:
"Al Asad" is the name of the American base in Iraq that was hit.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Jan 2020 06:33, edited 2 times in total.
Parthiban Shanmugam @hollywoodcurry
#Breaking: Semi-official Fars news agency in #Iran claims that the rocket attack at Al Assad was an "Iranian six missile attack" (6:03 p.m. ET 1/7/20) Ayn al Asad is an Iraqi Armed Forces and United States armed forces air base located in Anbar province of western #Iraq.
Did the bombers arrive in time??
added later..israel & india would be the biggest beneficiaries of the war fall out....how will khan extract its pound from India? F18 F16 anyone ??
Last edited by ArjunPandit on 08 Jan 2020 06:42, edited 1 time in total.
Iran could conduct missile strikes against U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates or against oil facilities in the Gulf. The accuracy of Iran’s missile strikes on the Abqaiq oil facility in September took the United States and the rest of the world by surprise, although Iran did purposefully attempt to keep the attack limited and symbolic. In the current climate, Iran could choose to become much more aggressive, calculating that in the arena of missile strikes it has been highly successful in landing blows while avoiding retaliation over the past six months.
BREAKING: Reports that military aircraft were damaged in Iranian missile attack
============
Now this is interesting. Were the bases not protected by SAMs? I did not see any info on missiles getting shot down. So no patriot batteries?
What kind of aircraft were there in that base?
Last edited by Vamsee on 08 Jan 2020 06:49, edited 1 time in total.
ramana wrote:brar_w Per Twitter reports US already in air.
Right but depends which bases. If they are aircraft taking off from Iraqi military bases used by us troops then those could be just defensive measures to avoid loss of aircraft. If they are us aircraft taking off from Al Dafra or bases outside of Iraq then that could suggest a preemptive action to begin sanitizing potential launch infra...or it could just mean they are performing surveillance orbits depending on the type of aircraft being launched.
Guys/gals/others:
Weird as it is, UBCN maintains that we are seeing the Great Art Of The Deal Negotiator in action with his Ultimate Brinkmanship circus. May have gone slightly wrong. Read this item: less than 3 hours old, which means it came just b4 the missiles hit.
2 hr 45 min ago
Pompeo orders diplomats not to meet with Iranian opposition groups amid tensions From CNN's Kylie Atwood
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sent a cable to all US missions overseas ordering diplomats not to meet Iranian opposition groups without specific approval because it could undermine the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts with the Iranian regime, according to a copy of the cable that CNN obtained.
“Many exiled Iranian opposition groups try to engage U.S. officials regularly to gain at least the appearance of tacit support and enhance their visibility and clout. Direct U.S. government engagement with these groups could prove counterproductive to our policy goal of seeking a comprehensive deal with the Iranian regime that addresses its destabilizing behavior,” Pompeo wrote in the cable.
The cable was first reported by Bloomberg.
The cable lists a number of Iranian opposition groups, including Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK) and five other Iranian opposition groups which are off limits without specific approval. John Bolton, President Trump’s former national security adviser, has previously said the MEK is a “viable opposition” to the current Iranian regime. {US needs to stick Bolton in a canister and use him as a missile.} Last month, Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal attorney, met with Iranian opposition groups that are linked to the MEK. Bolton and Giuliani have also given paid speeches on the group’s behalf. During one of those speeches last year, Giuliani called for regime change in Iran. The MEK, which was previously on a US terrorism list, paid Bolton to give speeches on its behalf and once employed Giuliani.
Pompeo warned that it would be “counterproductive” to engage these groups. He said that some of them have a history of using violence to achieve political objectives and that some of them seem to overthrow the Iranian regime.
Given the escalating tension with Iran in the wake of the strike which killed Qasem Soleimani, the cable sent a clear message that the Trump administration wants to avoid the perception that they are conspiring with groups to push for regime change.
In recent days, Trump administration officials have not laid out any specific steps they are taking to engage in diplomacy with Iran, though they have said that they are willing to do so. Iran, over the last year, has not acted upon any of Trump’s comments saying that he is willing to meet Iranian leadership.
In the cable, Pompeo cited the administration’s willingness to seek a “comprehensive deal” with Iran that covers a range of Iranian activities including “its destabilizing behavior, including its nuclear program, missile program, support for terrorism, and malign regional behavior.”
The State Department has not replied to a request for comment.
Twitter is lit af on this attack..
few gems:
1. Iran didnt retaliate over downing of a plane few years ago so US shouldnt do it too
2. few days back pompeo said world is a safer place.
3. Call for suspension of DT's twitter account so that he doesnt start ww3 (robert de nior without bluetick)
4. Some US lt commander has shared the image of a mushroom cloud ..
i seriously cant take anymore..
Based on current reports (still no definitive BD reports have emerged) it appears that most, if not all, causalities are Iraqi which would be logical given these are huge iraqi bases where US troops only operate in a small fraction of the area..Hard to see how Iran declares that a success internally and begins the process of de-escalation. Also interesting to see whether Trump decides to respond if there has been no major loss of US life. There are plenty of permanent US bases in GCC but Iran chose to attack softer, poorly defended targets inside Iraq (for now) which housed majority Iraqi troops (Iraq houses an entire division at Al Asad along with several other units). I think there is something to be looked into there.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 07:26, edited 1 time in total.
I cannot understand why the Iranians would attack an Iraqi base when the Iraqi govt has been going out on a limb for them. The report about Iraqi casualties may be fake news. As Donald Rumsfeld said as the US strikes in Afghanistan started:
This is the last time I tell you the truth.
If there were ambulances swarming the place, I would put out a news item to say that the enemy only hit their own friends, not my people.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Jan 2020 07:29, edited 1 time in total.
NRao wrote:It looks like an Iranian response for their people's consumption.
But how do they spin that narrative (if indeed the current reports are true) and declare victory (then de-escalate). We avenged QS by launching more than a dozen Ballistic and Cruise Missiles at Iraqi air-bases and ended up killing X number of Iraqi soldiers and not harming a single US soldier?
NRao wrote:It looks like an Iranian response for their people's consumption.
But how do they spin that narrative (if indeed the current reports are true) and declare victory (then de-escalate). We avenged QS by launching more than a dozen Ballistic and Cruise Missiles at Iraqi air-bases and ended up killing X number of Iraqi soldiers and not harming a single US soldier?
No idea. However, neither side seems to have even thought of an end game.
__________________________
Erbil reporting 2 missiles struck. No casualties to report.
__________________________
Pentagon claims a "dozen" missiles (so 10 on Al-Asad).
NRao wrote:It looks like an Iranian response for their people's consumption.
WH confirms that Trump will not hold a presser or address the nation.
So, looks like things should die down.
They wanted to inflict casualty (I suspect the attack missed or were shot down) if it was for show they would have just used the militia to lob their truck mounted Katyusha which I suspect is what Qassem was planning.
NRao wrote:
Pentagon claims a "dozen" missiles (so 10 on Al-Asad).
The official DOD statement claimed more than a dozen ballistic missiles were launched. There is a photo of a cruise missile wreckage there as well so there could be additional non-TBM's used in the attack as well.
John wrote: (I suspect the attack missed or were shot down)
By what? There is no indication of anything at those bases, on the US side, beyond CRAM/CIWS systems (unless they deployed a battalion sized Air-Defense force without anyone noticing). While those could hypothetically do some damage on cruise missiles they aren't going to be shooting down TBM's. Iraq has no credible SAM footprint. They could have been flying F-15 oribts but it is unlikely unless they had very specific intel. They could have missed or just landed outside of the zone of US troops, or there could have been some sort of soft-defenses in place to mess around with those systems.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 07:52, edited 1 time in total.
NRao wrote:It looks like an Iranian response for their people's consumption.
WH confirms that Trump will not hold a presser or address the nation.
So, looks like things should die down.
They wanted to inflict casualty (I suspect the attack missed or were shot down) if it was for show they would have just used the militia to lob their truck mounted Katyusha which I suspect is what Qassem was planning.
Local response IMHO would not be OK with Iranians. I think a response had to come from the Quds Force. That should mean a response from within Iran.
There are sparse, unconfirmed reports that some assets were damaged - planes.
On US casualties, typically, have to be reported (without delay). Now, there are reports (from Pentagon reporters) that the Pentagon would rather not release info because it would tell Iran how accurate their missiles were. I think the Pentagon is not releasing because they would rather deescalate - unless there are US casualties - which typically triggers a set of responses.
What is interesting is that the Trump Twitter feed is silent.
ArjunPandit wrote:
now that will send a lot of indians back home..iran knows that its going down under..it might as well take everything and everyone down..
Iran won’t pick a fight with UAE a lot of pro Iranian sentiment there and they know to help funnel money to Tehran.
i doubt that would be a concern on their mind...if an all out war breaks out for them..
coming to NRaojips point shri shri 108 trump ji being silent, i would assume they would be working on calibrating the responses to decide which historical sites to obliterate or what to do next..i hope he starts a war..
brar_w wrote:By what? There is no indication of anything at those bases, on the US side, beyond CRAM/CIWS systems (unless they deployed a battalion sized Air-Defense force without anyone noticing). While those could hypothetically do some damage on cruise missiles they aren't going to be shooting down TBM's. Iraq has no credible SAM footprint. They could have been flying F-15 oribts but it is unlikely unless they had very specific intel.
Thought they might mixed in some drones and CM.
Just confirmed no cruise missiles only 500 km ranged BM per CNN. Reportedly couple of them landed without exploding outside the base as well.
brar_w wrote:By what? There is no indication of anything at those bases, on the US side, beyond CRAM/CIWS systems (unless they deployed a battalion sized Air-Defense force without anyone noticing). While those could hypothetically do some damage on cruise missiles they aren't going to be shooting down TBM's. Iraq has no credible SAM footprint. They could have been flying F-15 oribts but it is unlikely unless they had very specific intel.
Thought they might mixed in some drones and CM.
Just confirmed no cruise missiles only 500 km ranged BM per CNN. Reportedly couple of them landed without exploding outside the base as well.
The US troops there are actually best equipped to fend off drones (EW and soft kill + CIWS and probably some VSHORAD) and cruise missiles (though only slightly) but not longer ranged missiles there. That is probably why they chose the TBM route. Either those missiles were very inaccurate and completely missed US troops, or that was done deliberately, or they were defeated by some sort of CEW measure. My guess is that the regime there wanted to survive and had an exit strategy which showed them doing something but not really spiraling out of control..Still hard to see how they sell it domestically.
EDIT - Fox reporting that CENTCOM now states that 15 TBM's were launched, 10 hit Al Asad, 1 hit Erbil, and 4 failed. Historically, this would constitute one of the larger TBM barrages in quite a while. I wonder what the record is for TBM attacks on an Air Base per wave.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 08:06, edited 5 times in total.
The point here is that a national defense was against us in whatever small capacity, not a guerrilla faction. When was the last this happened, rockets fired on us base by another country? That is the slippery slope, what happens next if the swallow this swipe?and how long will they keep on going till they decide enough is enough. Retaliation will come from us and Iran's response to that would be of interest, they are threatening Haifa, Dubai, for attacks if retaliated against.
SBajwa wrote:I think Trump is referring to the city of Qom where Hasan and his family was murdered. The other holy cities for Shia are in Saudi and in Damascus, syria.
Quom is mentioned in one of the Tom Clancy novels. sOna bandar thinks he is Jack Ryan.
ricky_v wrote:The point here is that a national defense was against us in whatever small capacity, not a guerrilla faction. When was the last this happened, rockets fired on us base by another country? That is the slippery slope, what happens next if the swallow this swipe?and how long will they keep on going till they decide enough is enough. Retaliation will come from us and Iran's response to that would be of interest, they are threatening Haifa, Dubai, for attacks if retaliated against.
Iran making threats of mass escalation. To attack more bases in Iraq. To unleash Hezbollah. To unleash shiite militias in Iraq. To attack Israel and Dubai. Making it clear it is ready for a widespead campaign if this escalates further with a US response.
t started with just Dubai and Haifa. In the past hour, it has expended to the above. So, go figure.
ricky_v wrote:When was the last this happened, rockets fired on us base by another country?
No US base was targeted. They could have done it, but chose not to. Instead, they chose to target a poorly defended Iraqi base that housed US troops. There is a important distinction here worth understanding. As for the last time a US troops/interests were attacked, that was during the second Gulf War where a total of nearly two dozen TBM's and CM's were launched, some directed at CENTCOM in Qatar. Non BM as in rocket attack on US bases in the region are quite common. US troops there, at least when concentrated, are equipped to deal with that.
NRao wrote:
CBS reporting Esper used "de-escalation".
That was earlier this evening prior to this event. So far, no statement from Esper has been released.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 08:20, edited 4 times in total.
Why do you even follow in twitter then? I deactivated my account ages ago.
