Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Arun.prabhu » 25 Jan 2020 12:46

I don't know about watertight cases. From what I've heard - hearsay with all the caveats that apply - if the cops decide to prosecute you, the evidence will be there, even if it has to invented. It is very likely that French intelligence helped Ghosn. The French were happy with him and the Japanese were afraid that the French were going to 'steal Nissan' away from them, which is why they went after Ghosn.

Suraj wrote:The high conviction rate in Japan is because the police only prosecute watertight cases . They generally follow a velvet glove approach in daily life focused on harmonious society, generally very helpful and polite . Petty crime is almost nonexistent in Japan; people use their expensive bags or coats to mark their chairs when using the restroom as a matter of routine, and it’s expected that no one would steal it.

However, things are very different at high levels . The same social contract focused on preserving order and harmony, instead focuses on national interest . There are many local businessmen who’ve done way worse than Ghosn and never get prosecuted . I was in Japan during his escape . The general talk was the guy has balls and yes he’d never get justice in Japan anyway.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Jan 2020 03:01

Let’s keep to the topic of the thread . This is not the Japan society thread specifically . They don’t necessarily manufacture evidence - they constrain you from being able to defend yourself reasonably . Manufacturing things is problematic because of the paper trail involved, and Japan loves its paperwork and procedures.

Ghosn was liked at one time, because he turned around Nissans fortunes after the Renault Nissan merger . However he’s picked up enemies in the Japanese business circles and they’ve made a case that he’s to blame for something, for which he’s being made the fall guy.

The Japanese won’t push this much further because of the enormous loss of face of his escape . There was no indignation or loud demands that others hand him back, in the news locally (I saw it on NHK as it unfolded while there). The unsaid implication was that Ghosn did the smart and brave thing, and that Japan has now been forced to deal with the consequences as opposed to Ghosn himself .

In general Japanese police emphasize order and harmony first . I’ve only ever interacted with them alone once (got lost during a morning run - they were very helpful despite nonexistent English - they opened a map and showed me) but while with Japanese company, they’ve always been exceedingly polite and gracious, though I’m aware they’ve a dark side to their system . They know that too. It’s part of the way they retain order - ‘behave well, you REALLY don’t want to see what happens otherwise’.

All state vs populace systems attempt to maintain a social contract and RoE. The US system offers a lot of legal avenues if you have the time and money, but the police are over armed and trigger happy . The Japanese system deters crime by making the legal process almost impossibly unfair unless you’re very influential and a native .

But they have literally almost no petty crime , and any bag snatcher would rather the police caught them than the yakuza, because the latter are nationalists who will not tolerate Japan being badly seen by a petty criminal, who will be quietly taken to an alleyway by tattooed men in black suits, his bones broken and one or more fingers separated from him.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Arun.prabhu » 26 Jan 2020 05:28

A primer on Japanese high conviction rates and how it gets to be that high.
http://skeptikai.com/2013/09/28/the-who ... t-follows/

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ramana » 27 Jan 2020 02:32

Folks This is a rabbit hole we don't need to into. It's neither geopolitical nor geoeconomic.
Please take to Tech Forum.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 05 Feb 2020 05:45

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/29/greece-turkey-standoff-france-send-warships-east-mediterranean
Greece’s prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has welcomed a decision by France to dispatch war frigates to the eastern Mediterranean as a standoff with Turkey over regional energy reserves intensifies.

With tensions between Athens and Ankara causing growing international alarm, Mitsotakis described the vessels as “guarantors of peace”.

“The only way to end differences in the eastern Mediterranean is through international justice,” he told reporters after holding talks in Paris with the French president, Emmanuel Macron. “Greece and France are pursuing a new framework of strategic defence.”

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-greece/greece-rejects-turkeys-call-demilitarisation-aegean-islands
Turkey's Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday Greece had violated international law by arming 16 of 23 Aegean islands placed under demilitarised status.

“Whatever is being threatened is not demilitarized,” Panagiotopoulos said on Saturday. “Greece does not provoke, does not violate the sovereign rights of others, but it doesn’t like to see its own rights violated.”

The race for hydrocarbon resources around Cyprus has brought tensions between Greece and Turkey to a peak as Ankara claims areas of the sea that Athens says are in its exclusive economic zone. Dogfights and naval confrontations in the Aegean have accompanied the sparring over Mediterranean territories.

https://www.cepa.org/macrons-visit-to-warsaw
After a long hiatus, the heads of state of Poland and France will finally meet February 3-4 during French President Emmanuel Macron’s first visit to Warsaw. The two countries’ last high-level summit occurred in 2015, when President Andrzej Duda of Poland enjoyed a cordial visit to Paris with then-President François Hollande. During that meeting, both men expressed solidarity in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The jupiterian ruler in his dexter role of foreign affairs and international team building has had a good run, while the sinister head's home building with economy and immigrants and a goal to create and sustian a moneyed base similar to the consumer ranch across the pond but in a very short time have yet to bear fruition. As denizens of libya, mali have discovered, the stability of north africa is not in the interests of the upper mediterranean, their integration with their resources into the eu will come later .A nascent third pole, if you will of the hre 2.0, india, sa, brazil and perhaps nigeria, ghana, indonesia soon enough to offset team democracy and democratic team of peoples republic to keep rationality alive. Though bodily intervention is unlikely, the alliance can hold forth with words, presentations and debates in international gatherings, seems to be the only way the world is headed after all.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 05 Feb 2020 14:26

This thread is not suited for this post,but as the dance of democracy has not rekindled to the other side of the red sea to warrant a seperate mena thread, here would suffice.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/02/algeria-role-libya-peace-process-region.html
By almost any measure, Algeria’s efforts to secure a political inter-Libyan deal free from foreign interference have not been a success. On Jan. 29, French President Emmanuel Macron angrily accused Turkey of deploying its allied militias from Syria, along with warships, to the region in support of the embattled UN-backed government in Tripoli, without mentioning a larger deployment of arms that had been made to eastern Libya by other nations. Ankara maintains that its warships are present to support NATO operations within the Mediterranean and are anchored within international waters. Qatar and Italy are also supporting the government in Tripoli, though to a lesser degree.

In the east, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Sudanese and Chadian fighters and Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are all backing the anti-government so-called Libyan National Army, with limited support alleged to be coming from France.

The embargo on international arms supplies to Libya’s warring parties, which was reasserted in Berlin in mid-January, is unraveling, and the strength of the international proxy forces continues to grow.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Rony » 11 Feb 2020 09:07

Sinn Fein emerges as the single largest party in Irish elections for the first time

Ireland’s Nationalist Party Breaks Through

Irish voters handed an unprecedented victory to Sinn Féin, a left-wing nationalist party that is perhaps best known for being the political arm of the Irish Republican Army during the decades of sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles. Though the seismic shift has largely been attributed more to voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties than to Sinn Féin’s support for the unification of the Republic of Ireland with Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, it nonetheless comes at a nationalist moment in the country—one in which anti-English sentiment, brought on by Brexit, has grown.

While Brexit has enhanced Ireland’s power and prestige on the world stage, it has also contributed to a revival of historic tensions between Ireland and Britain, which have manifested in an uptick in anti-English sentiment. “There does seem to be a reawakening of an anti-British nationalism as a result of Brexit,” O’Malley said, noting that such sentiment was indicative of the era before the Good Friday Agreement, the pact between Britain and Ireland that marked the end of the Troubles. Since then, relations have largely warmed—so much so that Queen Elizabeth II made a historic visit to the republic in 2011. Brexit appears to have undone much of that progress, though, and subsequent efforts at promoting reconciliation between Ireland and Britain—including Varadkar’s attempt last month to commemorate a police force active in Ireland during the era of British rule—have been particularly unpopular.

It’s not just Ireland that has seen an increase in nationalist sentiment. Brexit has proved to be a boon for nationalist movements across the U.K., including those in Scotland (where polls now show a surge in support for Scottish independence), Northern Ireland (where Irish nationalists make up the majority of lawmakers), and Wales (which has seen an uptick in its otherwise dormant secessionist movement). Even beyond the U.K., Brexit has inspired other nationalist parties to refine their positions. Euroskeptic parties in Germany, France, and Italy have mostly abandoned previous plans to follow Britain out of the EU, plotting instead to dismantle the bloc from within.

Though Ireland’s ruling parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil had previously ruled out forming a coalition with Sinn Féin, the results of the latest election mean they may no longer have a choice. But regardless of whether Sinn Féin enters the Irish government or not, it’s unlikely that its nationalist aims will be realized anytime soon. Though support for reunification in Ireland is high, O’Malley said that people “are not sure about exactly what circumstances they would be willing to accept and vote for it,” especially if it means higher taxes. Should Irish-British relations continue to sour during the next phase of Brexit negotiations, the prospects of reunification could get dimmer still. “If Britain moves away from Ireland, it makes it more difficult for north-south reconciliation,” Cunningham said. “It pulls those communities apart further.”

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Prem » 15 Feb 2020 01:20


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby banrjeer » 15 Feb 2020 05:35

This is from quora regarding Qatar, Arab states and Turkey. please ignore the faulty English. it show a progression that you cannot get from news media and also the many twists and realignments that are talking place constantly.

Qatar established in 1972 , it was under Occupation of England ,
Saudi Arabia is the Only Arab Countries wasn’t under Any Occupation from Any Europe Country like England , France , it was established in SEP-1932 .

Other Countries in G.C.C Actually get independent from England between 1960 - 1973 A.D

Saudi Arabia has A chance to make a control on these small Countries , and the Central Decisions of Essential Issues by Saudi Arabia .

Qatar didn’t like this kind of control , She want to make her independent Rule without any Interface from Any Other Country in the World .

There isn’t Any Country hasn’t Any Independency 100% in the World ,
Even All Europe hasn’t this one after WW2 .

1972 - 1995 : The 1st Ruler of Qatar has Friendship with Saudi Arabia , Actually they haven’t in that time Any Essential Income for the country .

1995 : Qatar Discovered some Gas Fields in her country , She decide to make her Special Indecency in her Rule , The Son of the 1st Ruler make a Coup against of his Father and start to make a new Policy in Qatar .

1995 - 2013 : The 2nd Ruler of Qatar and his Cousin The Foreign Minister , Start to build his country and make his new Policy .

1996 : They Thought have to make Necessary Media which protect them Rule in Qatar . it was Al-Jazeera Channel The Team who start work in this Channel was Working in BBC Arabic Channel in London in 1995 . This Channel was opened for One Year Only .
Al-Jazeera Channel has her Special Strategy , she has her High Quality in presenting her News with High Quality of analyzing and Other Documents Programs To make her Freedom Space she select the line of Opposing and only The Opposition one in the Arabic World was The Islamic Party Brotherhood . With her Branch in Syria , Egypt , Turkey.
Actually this Opposition was increasing because of the Dictator Regimes in the Arabic World , If people lost every thing and they became Weakness They will go to the Religion Side to strength themselves as them Thoughts .
Actually Arab People had Found this Channel as the Only One who Understand them Thoughts and Emotions in Religion and Policy with them Lost Rights .

2001 - 2002 : AKP in Turkey win the Election and start rule the country , Turkey was very poor , because of the Currency Fall Crisis . Qatar decided to support the Economic of Turkey ,

She Found Turkey as a Good Allies in her Policies against of the Saudi Arabia Control . especially has same view on The Party “ Muslim Brotherhood “ .

In same Time Qatar make Other Kind Of Relationship with Israel : Foreign Prime Minister [ Cousin of the 2nd Ruler ] had Visited Israel Many Times.
as THE 1ST Responsible from G.C.C Countries .

Qatar Only the Country in the World who has Office for the Qaeda , The Famous Terrorist Organization

2003 : Saudi Arabia had Decided to establish an Arabic Channel can compete Al-Jazeera Channel . It’s Name is : “ Al-Arabiya “

Qatar had Replayed to Saudi Arabia by Making Other Channels like :
Online Al-Jazeera Channel , Documentary Al-Jazeera , English Al-Jazeera .
Sport Al-Jazeera “ They had get the Exclusive of World Cup Football Matches “ So Any One in Arab World must pay money to watch Matches .

Turkey has her Relationship with Qatar the Country who Support him all the time , by media , and Economic .
Al-Jazeera Channel Started issuing news and Advertising about the Turkish President “ Recep Tayip Erdogan “ As a Replaced Leader of Arab World Rulers as An Islamic and Democracy One .

Arab People knows before about Turkey in her Dealing with Women who wear The Islamic Dress and Head Cover “ Hijab “ Arabs saw The Turkish Prime Ministry as A powerful man because he Allowed Women to wear it in Universities , Schools , Streets .

AL-Jazeera 1st Channel in the Arab World who put Advertising to visit Turkey for Tourism .

2006–2011 :

Bashar- AL-Assad Killed the Prime Minister of Lebanon “ Rafiq AL-Hariri “ by Instruments from Iran and Her militant in Lebanon “ Hizbullah “

Mr.Rafiq AL-Hariri was the Allies of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon . The Crimes made Saudi Arabia very angry of Assad Regime , King Abdullah was saying that Bashar is a boy not a man . Bashar Replayed that Saudi Government is Half of men .

Bashar Al-Assad was felled in a big Problem can fall his regime because of this criminal
Nobody stands with him the World . and International Court start investigating with Generals in Syrian Army who has relation in this Terrorist Criminal .

Saudi Arabia made A Political War against the Boy who being under International isolation The Western Countries start cutting them Relationships with Bashar .
Only Qatar & Turkey start stand with , but not because of Saudi Arabia .
There is Other Reason “ Gas Pipes “

Qatar Wants from Bashar AL-Assad to spread her Gas Pipes in Syria to reach Europe by Cheap Price , Cheaper than Other costs of Transportation .

Qatar is 2nd Country in the World who Has Gas reserve after Russia , Europe want to Buy Gas from Qatar .
Turkey can take Advantage by this as A logistic Country all Pipes of gas , Petrol come to her Lands , also the Transit Lines of International Trips in Istanbul .

Turkey & Qatar Started Make Allies with Bashar-Al Assad to raise the International Isolation on his Rule , In 2008 .
After making this Help to him , They Offered to him for approving the Project of Qatari Gas , Bashar AL Assad Didn’t Accept because Russia who Support him also didn’t Accept . Russia in same time Remove his debts .

2011–2014 :

Arab Spring is came , it’s reached to Syria , Al-Jazeera was publishing all the news of Syrian Revolution , Qatar stands with Syrian Opposions against of Assad Regime .
Turkey in 1st 6 Months of Revolution was sending Advices to Assad Regime to stop Protests by making Arrangement to improve the Economics of The Country . Bashar AL-Assad Rejected all Offers from Turkey , Saudi Arabia , Other Countries in the World ,
He want to be a Hero Like his Father in FEB-1982 when he has killed 50,000 Civils.

So All Arab Countries starts Supporting This Revolution exactly from Qatar & Turkey .

Saudi Arabia Got Angriness of this Two Countries and got afraid in addition of Israel Also for “ Muslim Brotherhood “ because they are the Only Replacement of Assad Regime in Syria .e

So Every Thing have changed against of Revolution , Qatar , Turkey .
2nd Ruler of Qatar gave the Rule to his Son Tamim ,
Ex-Prime minister of Qatar leaved to live in London .

The File of Syrian Revolution had transferred to Saudi Arabia , The Case of Syrian Revolution start going dawn .

2017 - 2019 : The Crisis between Saudi Arabistan and Qatar was getting Bigger . After finish the Visit of Trump President of U.S.A to Riyadh , G.C.C had Decided to cut Relationships with Qatar , They Banned importing any goods to Qatar and Qataris for coming to Saudi Arabia for Haj by Qatari Airlines , They had also banned the Air Roads of plan above of G.C.C Countries ,
Qatar Found Iran Better than Her Sisters in helping her by Logistic and Also Turkey sends Troops to Qatar in case if war happened .
Turkey has Military Base in Qatar .


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Philip » 24 Feb 2020 21:02

Mahathir resigns after Anwar accuses him of betrayal on the power sharing deal.Malaysia in crisis. Good news for India if Anwar replaces him.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Vips » 25 Feb 2020 06:14

Like a typical and true peacefool he wants it all and has gone back on the power sharing agreement with Anwar. He has resigned with a game plan of getting another coalition minus Anwar and is even thinking of fighting an early/mid term election to come back with a bigger majority.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Feb 2020 23:35

This is a somewhat flippant sport related matter, but still of significant relevance.

Background: In 2022, the Commonwealth Games will be in Birmingham, England. India has been a significant CWG sporting power this century, with the 3rd most gold medals behind Australia and England, ahead of Canada, NZ and others. We were 2nd in the medals table in 2010 and 3rd in 2018. Our strongest sports are shooting, weightlifting and wrestling, all of which we top the medals table in usually. But before 2000s, we were useless at CWG. Sometimes we didn't attend, and when we did, we were typically poor. That changed this century.

Situation: the English organizers decided to drop shooting and archery from CWG2022, because 'they have no facilities nearby' (mostly a lie), 'bureaucracy related to importing sports weapons' (somewhat true, but their problem) and they don't care (mostly true, not their main medal sports).

Consequence: The International Sport Shooting Federation and World Archery protested. Malaysia, Singapore, Bdesh also protested. India went further and said it would withdraw from CWG. Cue brown pants among organizers. Many discussions follow, with with multiple face saving 'the removal is final' assertions.

Final result: CGF agreed that the shooting and archery events will be held in India in Jan 2022, 5 months before rest of the events in Birmingham. This is unprecedented in Cwealth and general sporting history. The British press are livid, and MPs want to know why this 'disgraceful agreement' was made. But well, it's the official plan now.

Here's why it's important: we mostly don't care about the Cwealth. Most people either shrug or advocate leaving. India hasn't even sent a head of govt to CHOGM in many years, until they bent over backward to get Modi to briefly attend the last one. It's easy to just walk away. Anyone can. But it's much harder to armtwist another country into redoing the sporting event they hold dear to their history, on terms that suit us. Arguably no one else can do this - not even Australia, who may be great at sports but have no power to convince London to do their bidding.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Vips » 07 Mar 2020 03:20

India joins Indian Ocean Commission as observer bolstering Indo-Pacific vision.

NEW DELHI: India has joined as an observer of the Indian Ocean Commission — the inter-governmental organisation that coordinates maritime governance in the southwestern Indian Ocean — a move that will bolster Delhi’s Indo-Pacific vision.

This move has strategic importance as the Commission is an important regional institution in the Western Indian Ocean. It facilitates collective engagement with the islands in Western Indian Ocean that are becoming strategically significant. It boosts cooperation with France that has strong presence in the Western Indian Ocean and lends depth to India's SAGAR policy of PM Narendra Modi 2015.

The move also strengthens western flank of the Indo-Pacific and is a stepping stone to security cooperation with East Africa.

The Western Indian Ocean (WIO) is a strategic sub-theatre of the Indian Ocean linking the Southeastern coast of Africa to the wider Indian Ocean and beyond. It is home to one of the key chokepoints in the Indian Ocean- the Mozambique Channel.

While Comoros sits at the northern mouth of the Mozambique Channel, Madagascar borders the channel to its west. While the channel lost its significance post the opening of the Suez Canal, the recent hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz brought the channel back into focus as the original route for bigger commercial vessels (especially for oil tankers).

Additionally, the growing importance of Africa in Indo-Pacific engagements combined with potential natural gas reserves in the Mozambique Channel will only continue to raise the significance of this region in wider maritime security. Keeping in mind the importance of geography for maritime power projection and naval dominance, there is little doubt about the rising significance of the islands in a new geo-political environment in the Indian Ocean.

For India, engagements with this region will become critical as the Navy begins to strengthen its presence under its mission based deployments. Engagements with the region, especially with the islands- given their geo-strategic location- could become key in supporting Indian naval presence as well as furthering Delhi’s Indian Ocean engagement.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Julian_Bashir » 11 Mar 2020 05:17

India does not get a big mention but a very interesting conversation. Gurus can dissect, I am not qualified.

https://podplayer.net/?id=98445282


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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby devaraya » 17 Mar 2020 04:33

Folks Don't jump on me for posting CT(fwd as received)

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Last edited by Gerard on 17 Mar 2020 05:58, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please don't post CT spam from WhatsApp here

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby syam » 17 Mar 2020 11:24

Since both us and uk failed to come to aid of any other country. and only India and china(to some extent) helping the small countries, is it time for the world organizations to be reformed?

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby kit » 17 Mar 2020 23:21

syam wrote:Since both us and uk failed to come to aid of any other country. and only India and china(to some extent) helping the small countries, is it time for the world organizations to be reformed?


UK helping another country ? ..you have to be kidding !!.. it would be a miracle if they can help themselves !!

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby syam » 18 Mar 2020 12:05

kit wrote:UK helping another country ? ..you have to be kidding !!.. it would be a miracle if they can help themselves !!

I used to wonder how any guy can starve millions of people(churchi and famines). I mean even 10 people death can shook us to core and feel guilty about it for the rest of our life. these britshits have no such guilty consciousness. the way they are preaching about herd immunity with such a cold calculation is alarming.

Post-corona world will definitely look at this again and make these britshits pay. these bloody anglo-saxons are once indian tribes settled in europe long time back. to think that these people belong to same stock as us, bloody shameful. our ancestors probably kicked them out for these exact shenanigans.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Philip » 18 Mar 2020 13:08

On an article " Crude tactics: Saudis,Russia at war over oil prices",.

Author John Bradley explains how Saudi clown prince MBS is responsible for the current glut in oil,plummeting prices and oil majors stocks meltdown. In trying at the last OPEC meeting in Vienna to get a cut in oil production from all producers,the shock of a Russian refusal saw MBS go berserk and increase Saudi production and slashed prices too.

MBS has actually attacked in effect the US's fracking oil industry,aTrump trumpeted success story,while the Russians have said that they've already prepared for 6 to 10 years of oil prices at $25 a barrel.The Saudi clown princf has alienated Russia,gone to war with the American shale industry,finds himself isolated internationally and with no powerful friends at home other than the ailing king.Bradley ssys that in the time of thf CV crisis,Bin Salman has " torpedoed the world economy", and in doing so may have created other problems for himself at home.
Who knows,one day he known as Salman Dust-bin!

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Vikas » 18 Mar 2020 15:37

Philip wrote:On an article " Crude tactics: Saudis,Russia at war over oil prices",.

Author John Bradley explains how Saudi clown prince MBS is responsible for the current glut in oil,plummeting prices and oil majors stocks meltdown. In trying at the last OPEC meeting in Vienna to get a cut in oil production from all producers,the shock of a Russian refusal saw MBS go berserk and increase Saudi production and slashed prices too.

MBS has actually attacked in effect the US's fracking oil industry,aTrump trumpeted success story,while the Russians have said that they've already prepared for 6 to 10 years of oil prices at $25 a barrel.The Saudi clown princf has alienated Russia,gone to war with the American shale industry,finds himself isolated internationally and with no powerful friends at home other than the ailing king.Bradley ssys that in the time of thf CV crisis,Bin Salman has " torpedoed the world economy", and in doing so may have created other problems for himself at home.
Who knows,one day he known as Salman Dust-bin!


Irrespective as long as the lower Oil Prices help us, More power to MBS.
How does lower Oil prices harm world economy instead of helping it is beyond me. Why so much of hurt and whine in media about MBS bringing Oil prices lower, do they want higher Oil prices or is it Russian paid lifafa journalism.
Should they not be celebrating instead on account of lower Oil prices ?

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Lohit » 19 Mar 2020 04:23

Sharing a set of hypothesis/ perspectives on how the world may get shaped post the Chinese Virus recession/ deleveraging and how we need to respond,

1. Nation states / alliances will become much more nationalistic / fascist, akin to post 1920s depression: With major economic fallout, populist, protectionist, xenophobic policies will rule the roost. Tribalism and hostility between nations will multiply. EU vs Turkey, Eastern Europe vs Western, China vs Taiwan - are just some of the conflicts that will go from cold/warm to hot.

2. Casino capitalism will be dealt a massive blow: Huge mistrust in the global derivatives and corporate credit ecosystem, global trade and investment will severely deteriorate. This will delink global economic inter linkages and further lead to a global environment of fear and mistrust. Supply chains in industries such as Consumer durables, pharma and even foodstuff will get de-globalized. FDI flows will retreat heavily starving equity markets of developing nations.

3. Authoritarianism will rise: As the world sees a decline and retreat of American and European hegemony, ceding ground to the big winners, China and Russia, we will see a significant rise in overt dictatorships (Iran model) or covert (Pakistan model). Geographies most at risk would be Southeast Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe. Western democratic models will give way to China style polities.

4. Rise in conflicts: We will see a new colonial race by China and Russia to seek lebensraum. We will see the rise of military alliance equivalents of the new silk road - to rival NATO across all five major continents.

What should our nation do to prepare itself for these troubling times ahead?

1. Help won't come from elsewhere, we need to help ourselves by dramatically improving productivity: Under NaMo India has to deliver pathbreaking innovations for it's people - think Thorium nuclear reactors in energy level innovations and creating desi industrial giants in every industry equivalent to Amazon, Tesla, Huawei, Citibank etc

2. Establish complete millitary and political dominance in the SAARC region: It is vital that we have the ability to completely dominate our piece of IOR down south, have strong hard military presence in Indo-China, a strongly pro-Delhi govt in Kabul and a subservient adminstation in current geography of Pak. The last piece is obviously the hardest and can only be achieved through the dismemberment of Pak. With the new super-rise of China, the two front threat will go super-critical, almost existential. We need to put a plan in motion towards the destruction of Na-Pak, yesterday. Let us immediately recognize Baluchestan, Pakhtunistan and Sindhudesh immediately and start work thereon.

3. We need to massively consolidate national unity under an Indic identity: The time to pander to left liberals is over. RSS needs to accelerate cultural reawakening programs to forge a unified Indic identity and the national spirit that goes with it. It has been doing it successfully at a slow and steady rate but with the coming collapse of US and EU, we have run out of time.

4. We need to carry the biggest fkn stick there is: Create weapons platforms, doctrines and people that are the best in class of future warfare - preparedness needs to be done with the objective that, what does it take for India to liberate Tibet in a week? Only on asking the right question will we get the right answer- where do we want to be and what monumental price we need to pay to get there. And I hope that our policy makers are under no delusion on why this price needs to be paid - CCP's single minded objective is - complete dismemberment of our country. We need to be ready to impose a far heavier price on the CCP at the first indication of trouble. The world has suffered and will suffer 10x more due to the evil CCP regime. Let's not expect the US or anybody else to solve this problem. Let's gear up to solve this ourselves! Let us be the 5 Pandavas who vanquished the 100 Kauravas! Veer Bhoge Vasundhara!

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 19 Mar 2020 05:09

Lohit wrote:Sharing a set of hypothesis/ perspectives on how the world may get shaped post the Chinese Virus recession/ deleveraging and how we need to respond,

. Nation states / alliances will become much more nationalistic / fascist, akin to post 1920s depression: With major economic fallout, populist, protectionist, xenophobic policies will rule the roost. Tribalism and hostility between nations will multiply. EU vs Turkey, Eastern Europe vs Western, China vs Taiwan - are just some of the conflicts that will go from cold/warm to hot.


Can you elaborate on the process behind such scenarios. Sometimes explicating brings out interesting threads.

2. Casino capitalism will be dealt a massive blow: Huge mistrust in the global derivatives and corporate credit ecosystem, global trade and investment will severely deteriorate. This will delink global economic inter linkages and further lead to a global environment of fear and mistrust. Supply chains in industries such as Consumer durables, pharma and even foodstuff will get de-globalized. FDI flows will retreat heavily starving equity markets of developing nations.


Where do you think traditional safe havens like metals will go? What about the newer alternative of crypto? Currently both are tanking - somewhat unusual in a hurt market.

3. Authoritarianism will rise: As the world sees a decline and retreat of American and European hegemony, ceding ground to the big winners, China and Russia, we will see a significant rise in overt dictatorships (Iran model) or covert (Pakistan model). Geographies most at risk would be Southeast Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe. Western democratic models will give way to China style polities.


Why do you see China as a winner? If point 1 stands, then the US will start wielding the big stick it carries more widely. Lots of countries world over, and I'm assuming India as well, will likely move away from Cheen. A lot depends upon the fallout of COVID on Sino-US relations I think. If the US threatens to move supply chains to alternate locations and if China carries out its threat of stopping supplies of essential equipment to US, there could be some serious trouble.

4. Rise in conflicts: We will see a new colonial race by China and Russia to seek lebensraum. We will see the rise of military alliance equivalents of the new silk road - to rival NATO across all five major continents.

Can't be sure of Russia - when it push comes to shove, I doubt it will toe the Chinese line much, if at all. It will not actively seek destiny far away - its own reach is vast as it is.

What should our nation do to prepare itself for these troubling times ahead?
[/quote]
Interesting take...these should be considered in short term (1-2 years) and longer terms as well.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 19 Mar 2020 05:25

The roots are already sown towards fascism in a sense, italy is for nationalizing alitalia, no firings for atleast 6 months. There are already articles about the de-coupling of us and china. At the very least, the general consensus is to bring pharma manufacturing back to their own trusted regions. The fallout will be heavily on employment, australia has already promised a monthly amount to the weaker sections starting march 31, us is considering the same with ubi. China will enter another century of humilliation, if it seeks to rise, why the considerate should step up and push them back in. Many are going to lose their family, friends, jobs due to them, this must never be forgotten. They will be punished, if not outright militarily, then economically and by deportations, forced and willingly. Honestly, if there is breakdown in society, they are going to get some heavy beatings, if not for gain then for principles.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 19 Mar 2020 05:31

Flying under the radar, greece's border force is stopping thousands of "refugees" from entering europe from turkey.
Image
http://www.ekathimerini.com/250770/article/ekathimerini/news/greece-averts-push-at-northeastern-border
Guards and police holding the northeastern Greek land border with Turkey thwarted what authorities say was an organized push to breach the frontier in the early hours of Wednesday.

According to sources, some 350 migrants and refugees made numerous attempts to break through defenses at the Kastanies crossing in the northeastern region of Evros between 2.30 and 4 a.m., with the support of men of the Turkish security forces on the other side, who are said to have fired tear gas against Greek border guards.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby kit » 19 Mar 2020 05:37

Cain Marko wrote:
Lohit wrote:Sharing a set of hypothesis/ perspectives on how the world may get shaped post the Chinese Virus recession/ deleveraging and how we need to respond,

. Nation states / alliances will become much more nationalistic / fascist, akin to post 1920s depression: With major economic fallout, populist, protectionist, xenophobic policies will rule the roost. Tribalism and hostility between nations will multiply. EU vs Turkey, Eastern Europe vs Western, China vs Taiwan - are just some of the conflicts that will go from cold/warm to hot.


Can you elaborate on the process behind such scenarios. Sometimes explicating brings out interesting threads.

2. Casino capitalism will be dealt a massive blow: Huge mistrust in the global derivatives and corporate credit ecosystem, global trade and investment will severely deteriorate. This will delink global economic inter linkages and further lead to a global environment of fear and mistrust. Supply chains in industries such as Consumer durables, pharma and even foodstuff will get de-globalized. FDI flows will retreat heavily starving equity markets of developing nations.


Where do you think traditional safe havens like metals will go? What about the newer alternative of crypto? Currently both are tanking - somewhat unusual in a hurt market.

3. Authoritarianism will rise: As the world sees a decline and retreat of American and European hegemony, ceding ground to the big winners, China and Russia, we will see a significant rise in overt dictatorships (Iran model) or covert (Pakistan model). Geographies most at risk would be Southeast Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe. Western democratic models will give way to China style polities.


Why do you see China as a winner? If point 1 stands, then the US will start wielding the big stick it carries more widely. Lots of countries world over, and I'm assuming India as well, will likely move away from Cheen. A lot depends upon the fallout of COVID on Sino-US relations I think. If the US threatens to move supply chains to alternate locations and if China carries out its threat of stopping supplies of essential equipment to US, there could be some serious trouble.

4. Rise in conflicts: We will see a new colonial race by China and Russia to seek lebensraum. We will see the rise of military alliance equivalents of the new silk road - to rival NATO across all five major continents.

Can't be sure of Russia - when it push comes to shove, I doubt it will toe the Chinese line much, if at all. It will not actively seek destiny far away - its own reach is vast as it is.

What should our nation do to prepare itself for these troubling times ahead?

Interesting take...these should be considered in short term (1-2 years) and longer terms as well.[/quote]

The US and China are economically entwined despite all the noise they make, India best protect interests and see how the wind blows, make use of all opportunities to develop its own economy and military , a time will come when India will be the checkmate to any power struggle,

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby syam » 19 Mar 2020 14:44

Earlier I thought we will be out of this crisis at least temporarily by may first week. Now I am having doubts. Any proper cure/vaccine will take 18 months to be public. I don't know how many people going to survive. one curious nature of the virus is, how it infected elites from every country. How do they get infected in first place?

I am always skeptical of this genetic engineering. i don't buy this reading the dna and non-sense. it's like trying to understand compiled code of million line source code. it doesn't make sense. may be they edit small bit in the dna and say -look we made great breakthrough. not looking at the overall impact of the small editing. it might have million consequences, because the small bit that idiot edited most probably have millions of small 'instructions' interwoven within themselves.

may be we stretched the science too far and pissed off some deva? i used to ponder about spiritual aspect of virus like hiv. hiv targets mostly those who have no control over their sensual pursuits. this corona seems to make every dude on earth wash their hands and make them super clean. there is pattern to these new diseases.

i know this thread is about global politics. but let's face it. this corona is not political thing and appeared out of random events and going to shape the world in coming months if not years. the devas might had enough of our perversions. we have to look at this with our ancestors perspective too.

we disrespected our surya baghavan by waking up after 8 or 9. may be it's time to say hello to him at the dawn itself? he is our caretaker since the beginning. our ancestors wrote many things about him. there must be something more to him. early mornings are the most pleasant times of the day anyway. there will be little loss there.

light fire and offer something of our food to devas. not saying dumping the whole meal in fire. just little ghee or some thing small which can be consumed by the fire. surely we can do something about it.

then we have our pitru devatha. we should lit small lamp in some corner for them. we ignored them enough, and now ignoring our living parents too. time to make peace with them too?

there are many things we can incorporate into our hectic life. time to have different solution to the problems. if not, the next virus going to make us leave for jungles and starve us for days, only some water and some wild berries to eat to survive. we will be forced live life as some vedic sage.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby vishvak » 19 Mar 2020 17:35

Chinese went greedy with genetic oops bio WMDs otherwise what stops level 3 lab to have same security as level 4 lab until first duplication of known antigens from foreign countries occur or such - not considering resistant virus until stable state.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Vips » 19 Mar 2020 18:28

ricky_v wrote:Flying under the radar, greece's border force is stopping thousands of "refugees" from entering europe from turkey.
Image
http://www.ekathimerini.com/250770/article/ekathimerini/news/greece-averts-push-at-northeastern-border
Guards and police holding the northeastern Greek land border with Turkey thwarted what authorities say was an organized push to breach the frontier in the early hours of Wednesday.

According to sources, some 350 migrants and refugees made numerous attempts to break through defenses at the Kastanies crossing in the northeastern region of Evros between 2.30 and 4 a.m., with the support of men of the Turkish security forces on the other side, who are said to have fired tear gas against Greek border guards.


Look at the so called refugees - do they look like Syrians at all? Majority of these are unwashed abduls fom Porkistan and beediland. This is a systematic attempt to change the demographics in southern europe (which is already rapidly aging) by spreading the peacefool virus.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Lohit » 19 Mar 2020 20:28

Can you elaborate on the process behind such scenarios. Sometimes explicating brings out interesting threads.


I think the current flare up between Turkey and EU is a good example to explicate on how it would have played out differently a few years from now, especially because it included elements of future hybrid wars - push of illegal immigrants to sow confusion, followed by widespread concerted disinformation against Greece by left liberal media alongside a social media information warfare.

The reason why Turkey did not escalate further was primarily because of EU unity and the threat of Trump led US' loss of support.

In a great depression like scenario which will most likely dissolve the monetary and semi-political union, EU countries will not be keen on getting involved.

A shrill sino subservient press reportage of how EU is not taking its 'burden' of immigrants and other ummah fifth columnists will add further pressure. Countries like Austria or Poland which may feel inclined may simply not have the economic capacity to support.

This will then be followed by a operation himmler like false flag - which would probably be a great massacre of 'innocent' refugees and even a few token turk soldiers.

This would provide a 'legitamate' reason for Turkey to retaliate. It would take Turkish mil, one of the most competent in the world all of 3 days to hammer Greece in submission.

America would be disinterested in intervention following it's own economic collapse or might be held back upon threat of counter intervention from far stronger Russia and China.

Turkey and Greece might then be hosted in 'neutral' Oslo-istan with Greece being forced to capitulate on thehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute

Essentially, retraction of pax Americana will release the safety valve on all these artificially pent up disputes between weaker and stronger nations across the world, with most disputes being settled in favor of countries that are part of the Chinese NATO equivalent.


Where do you think traditional safe havens like metals will go? What about the newer alternative of crypto? Currently both are tanking - somewhat unusual in a hurt market.



I feel that metals in general and precious metals in particular may survive as safe haven but only after some severe shock therapy. If we take gold as an example, the absurdity of paper gold having no actual linkage to physical gold is extremely dangerous. IMO as the world dumps dollars and demand for sovereign gold hoardings soar, as will paper gold spots. What happens though when a massive margin call is triggered? Global investors may discover, as the bond market is in the process of discovering that the paper gold they hold is only just that, paper with no semblance to actual gold. I even shudder to think what that day would look like.

On crypto imho it has proven to be worthless. It should ideally have been far far more resilient to market volatility since it was touted to be the new digital gold. Since this fact has proven to be false, what value does it have for global markets apart from its utility to terrorists and drug dealers?

Why do you see China as a winner? If point 1 stands, then the US will start wielding the big stick it carries more widely. Lots of countries world over, and I'm assuming India as well, will likely move away from Cheen. A lot depends upon the fallout of COVID on Sino-US relations I think. If the US threatens to move supply chains to alternate locations and if China carries out its threat of stopping supplies of essential equipment to US, there could be some serious trouble.



I feel that the US has discovered that it's big stick is just a toothpick. It has lost and has retreated (or will retreat soon) from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Phillipines and South Korea - and the list will only get longer. In the years to come we may see its bases being packed up in the Gulf, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and parts of South America as well, as its empire is gradually dismantled by internal and external forces.

Can't be sure of Russia - it push comes to shove, I doubt it will toe the Chinese line much, if at all. It will not actively seek destiny far away - its own reach is vast as it is.


Russia under Putin will soon effectively function as a Chinese client state. The transformation has started, we are seeing plenty signs of it and will only speed up. Once the polar ice caps melt, who will Putin and his oligarchs sell all those resources to? The answer is China.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Lohit » 19 Mar 2020 20:31

syam wrote:Earlier I thought we will be out of this crisis at least temporarily by may first week. Now I am having doubts. Any proper cure/vaccine will take 18 months to be public. I don't know how many people going to survive. one curious nature of the virus is, how it infected elites from every country. How do they get infected in first place?

I am always skeptical of this genetic engineering. i don't buy this reading the dna and non-sense. it's like trying to understand compiled code of million line source code. it doesn't make sense. may be they edit small bit in the dna and say -look we made great breakthrough. not looking at the overall impact of the small editing. it might have million consequences, because the small bit that idiot edited most probably have millions of small 'instructions' interwoven within themselves.

may be we stretched the science too far and pissed off some deva? i used to ponder about spiritual aspect of virus like hiv. hiv targets mostly those who have no control over their sensual pursuits. this corona seems to make every dude on earth wash their hands and make them super clean. there is pattern to these new diseases.

i know this thread is about global politics. but let's face it. this corona is not political thing and appeared out of random events and going to shape the world in coming months if not years. the devas might had enough of our perversions. we have to look at this with our ancestors perspective too.

we disrespected our surya baghavan by waking up after 8 or 9. may be it's time to say hello to him at the dawn itself? he is our caretaker since the beginning. our ancestors wrote many things about him. there must be something more to him. early mornings are the most pleasant times of the day anyway. there will be little loss there.

light fire and offer something of our food to devas. not saying dumping the whole meal in fire. just little ghee or some thing small which can be consumed by the fire. surely we can do something about it.

then we have our pitru devatha. we should lit small lamp in some corner for them. we ignored them enough, and now ignoring our living parents too. time to make peace with them too?

there are many things we can incorporate into our hectic life. time to have different solution to the problems. if not, the next virus going to make us leave for jungles and starve us for days, only some water and some wild berries to eat to survive. we will be forced live life as some vedic sage.


The devas dont care. We already have the Gita, we do not require anything more. If that's not the case, it's on us.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby habal » 19 Mar 2020 21:23

There's no Gods involved in any of this, just negative characters. During my days researching conspiracy theories, I came across uncannily detailed descriptions of a biowarfare base in the nevada desert called the Dulce base.

Note that the dulce base is a multi-level totally underground base of which 30 levels underground is known to the staff and the 10 odd levels below that are operated by non-humans and their human hirelings. It is here that a lot of research is done by a confederation of human-xyz (cold-blooded creatures and their creations a kind of worker or drone) and testing is done on new viruses and manipulation of human brain.

This base is rumored to be connected by underground rail to around the world underground rail network to most of the prominent places in western world. This work of creating an underground rail network was carried out by nuclear tunnel boring machines (NTBM) which could tunnel around 2 kms/day and used a technology of high heat boring which used to fuse clay and rocks into solid tunnel using high heat generated from nuclear reactors to construct an high strength tunnel. This tunnel was originally constructed to operate high speed rail to transport any non-human creature or their creations to any part of the world without arousing any curiosity from ordinary humans who could be alerted by air travel movements or by any ocean-based surface travel. Any virus or bacteria thus created in the dulce base labs can also be transported to or near any part of the world within hours.

The upper levels of this base used by humans are used by darpa to run various tech experiments on technology given by non-human allies and refine them before passing it on to civilian and military labs.

So even if we take all this as conspiracy theories and gobbledygook, you must never dismiss such possibilities while calculating what factors are responsible for spread and imorovement of virus. Because there is no evidence that such a facility does not exist just as there is no evidence to commons that such a facility exists.

We have read in mahabharata that Arjuna and Krishna banished the takshakas (naga race) from forest into exile. This was an advanced race that constructed takshashila. Also Maya Danava who created vimanas and lakshagraha was also not human, his age spans multiple yugas. Now what is the proof characters such as these just left earth altogether. Maybe they are here in new avatars, this time peddling their wares as 'sellers of technology' to those needy of technology (USA, power hungry countries of west).

If we consider these possibilities whole lot of things, not just origin of virus, can be explained.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 20 Mar 2020 06:24

Gents, i am now wandering into heavy ct territory, please indulge me in this and let the post stay up.
Image
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 20 Mar 2020 07:14

Lohit wrote:
Can you elaborate on the process behind such scenarios. Sometimes explicating brings out interesting threads.


I think the current flare up between Turkey and EU is a good example to explicate on how it would have played out differently a few years from now, especially because it included elements of future hybrid wars - push of illegal immigrants to sow confusion, followed by widespread concerted disinformation against Greece by left liberal media alongside a social media information warfare.

The reason why Turkey did not escalate further was primarily because of EU unity and the threat of Trump led US' loss of support.

In a great depression like scenario which will most likely dissolve the monetary and semi-political union, EU countries will not be keen on getting involved.

A shrill sino subservient press reportage of how EU is not taking its 'burden' of immigrants and other ummah fifth columnists will add further pressure. Countries like Austria or Poland which may feel inclined may simply not have the economic capacity to support.

This will then be followed by a operation himmler like false flag - which would probably be a great massacre of 'innocent' refugees and even a few token turk soldiers.

This would provide a 'legitamate' reason for Turkey to retaliate. It would take Turkish mil, one of the most competent in the world all of 3 days to hammer Greece in submission.

America would be disinterested in intervention following it's own economic collapse or might be held back upon threat of counter intervention from far stronger Russia and China.

Turkey and Greece might then be hosted in 'neutral' Oslo-istan with Greece being forced to capitulate on thehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute


Essentially, retraction of pax Americana will release the safety valve on all these artificially pent up disputes between weaker and stronger nations across the world, with most disputes being settled in favor of countries that are part of the Chinese NATO equivalent.


Where do you think traditional safe havens like metals will go? What about the newer alternative of crypto? Currently both are tanking - somewhat unusual in a hurt market.



I feel that metals in general and precious metals in particular may survive as safe haven but only after some severe shock therapy. If we take gold as an example, the absurdity of paper gold having no actual linkage to physical gold is extremely dangerous. IMO as the world dumps dollars and demand for sovereign gold hoardings soar, as will paper gold spots. What happens though when a massive margin call is triggered? Global investors may discover, as the bond market is in the process of discovering that the paper gold they hold is only just that, paper with no semblance to actual gold. I even shudder to think what that day would look like.

On crypto imho it has proven to be worthless. It should ideally have been far far more resilient to market volatility since it was touted to be the new digital gold. Since this fact has proven to be false, what value does it have for global markets apart from its utility to terrorists and drug dealers?

Why do you see China as a winner? If point 1 stands, then the US will start wielding the big stick it carries more widely. Lots of countries world over, and I'm assuming India as well, will likely move away from Cheen. A lot depends upon the fallout of COVID on Sino-US relations I think. If the US threatens to move supply chains to alternate locations and if China carries out its threat of stopping supplies of essential equipment to US, there could be some serious trouble.



I feel that the US has discovered that it's big stick is just a toothpick. It has lost and has retreated (or will retreat soon) from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Phillipines and South Korea - and the list will only get longer. In the years to come we may see its bases being packed up in the Gulf, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa and parts of South America as well, as its empire is gradually dismantled by internal and external forces.

Can't be sure of Russia - it push comes to shove, I doubt it will toe the Chinese line much, if at all. It will not actively seek destiny far away - its own reach is vast as it is.


Russia under Putin will soon effectively function as a Chinese client state. The transformation has started, we are seeing plenty signs of it and will only speed up. Once the polar ice caps melt, who will Putin and his oligarchs sell all those resources to? The answer is China.

Not sure where you get this "most competent Turkish military" thing. It has been exposed as a lot of bluffery in Syria. And the Greeks are no chumps militarily either - especially in terms of Air assets. The Greeks will not be a walkover by any stretch of the Turkish imagination

About the US - it might be thinking of becoming more isolationist but its stick remains rather big and it can wield it effectively to absolutely devastate any area it so chooses without using nukes. The Chinese are nowhere close and most skirmishes will be fought right in their neighborhood. And it is doubtful that the US will ever leave the Indo-Pacific esp. the East China Sea area. Their bases in Japan and Soko are there to stay - because these countries truly and desperately need the nuke umbrella being faced with threats from Cheen and its proxy, Noko.

As far as the Russkis are concerned, again it is hyperbole to imagine that they will become anybody's client state. Their natural resources to people ratio far exceeds anything the Chinese can imagine. At their very weakest during WWII and post 1990, they didn't really become a client state. The Chinese know this. It is just that their interests match for now. If there is a China vs Nato splash, I doubt that the Russkis will join the fray in China's camp. They may provide some assistance and prove to be a nuisance in order to let both sides bleed but they will not really intervene. There is no need.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby ricky_v » 20 Mar 2020 17:05

Possible CT again, please do not dismiss out of hand, bill gates reddit ama and ID2020 have left many possibilities to explore.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html
Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby mody » 20 Mar 2020 18:34

An informal alliance of countries is taking shape. North Korea, China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and Russia. Small players like Qatar will also be used. China will be the leader of this new alliance due to its unmatched economic muscle. Within the next 10 years, Chinese economic muscle will be greater than that of the US in real terms. Militarily such a alliance will be more powerful as compared to the Nato alliance. Only India would be able to balance out the equation.


The economic fallout of the Covid-19 virus will be much more severe than is being anticipated. This is not purely due to the business disruption caused by the virus, but simply because of the state of the world economy at the moment.

Since the 2008 financial crises, the central banks around the world have tried to grow out of it, by simply generating a mountain of debt and printing unrestricted amount of money.
Money in its simplest form is only an IOU. It was invented simply to facilitate trade, as barter system could only get us so far. Hence, by definition the amount of money that can exist should be equal to the underlying trade in goods and services that is taking place. However, over the last 50 years and more so in the last 20 years, governments have been creating additional money, in the hope that the actual economy consisting of goods and services will catch up with the additional money supply. This is not happening. In fact money has become an entity onto itself and increasingly complicated financial transactions exist, which help in multiplying the money, without any real underlying economic activity ever having taken place. This is causing a massive inequality around the world, as those who have money are simply seeing their piece of the pie multiply at an exponential rate.
The current worldwide sovereign, corporate and household debt burden is so high, that it can never be repaid.
To respond to the current economic crises due to the virus, the governments and central banks will once again open the taps to create even higher debt. At the time of 2008, the interest rates in the Western economies were around 5%. They reduced the same to between 0.5-1.5% and unleashed a huge amount of additional liquidity. From 2008 to 2020, the interest rates have come up to around 2.5%. Now, with the current crises, the rates have been reduced to between 0-0.25%. When the next crises comes and it most certainly will come, the prevalent interest rates will be almost certainly be lower than 2% and the governments around the world, will not have any additional room to cut rates or increase liquidity.
They will either just shamelessly print as much money as they want and destroy the entire financial system as the problems by then would be so big, that any kind of rescue effort would be impossible.
Already as per some studies the size of the global financial market is about 4 times the size of the global GDP. It was roughly equal in the 1980's. By the time we are out of the current crises and start growing again and by the time of the next financial crises, the size of the financial markets around the world, will be even bigger. It will simply be too big to rescue, even by co-ordinated effort by central banks around the world and we will have to let a lot of companies, banks and financial institutions fail. Even the "too big to fail" types will go under and unleash absolute chaos around the world.


The reason metals and other such physical assets are also falling, is due to the over capacities created, due to the unnatural amount of liquidity and money created by governments. Take the example of steel. The production capacity created in China is directly a function of the unlimited amount of money provided by the Chinese government, rather than actual demand for the metal. Metals like Platinum are collapsing, as the industrial demand from the auto industry is collapsing. Along with these collapses, the demand from investments in them will also reduce as the prices are falling and there is a big demand supply mismatch. The same is happening in Silver as well. The industrial demand is falling and other sectors like Jewellery and investments is just not enough to make up the shortfall. The demand supply mismatch leads to further price falls, scaring away investors further.
Gold may be the outlier in this and in the future the demand for Gold may increase and the prices also.

With regards to the current crises, a wild prediction would be of Russian and Ukraine signing a peace agreement, with Ukraine agreeing to give up claims on Crimea and agreeing never to join Nato. Russia will backoff from eastern Ukraine and help out economically. This will be due to the devastation that the virus will cause on Ukrainian economy and Europe and US not being in a position to help out.

Cain Marko
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 21 Mar 2020 13:33

^very interestingly while the spot price of silver had literally collapsed to about $13 per oz., The retail price had increased to almost $24... Double the spot. Never seen this!

Seems like some people are buying and hoarding. They know something up!

syam
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby syam » 21 Mar 2020 14:11

Cain Marko wrote:wuhan thread post.

those squint eyed ccp bas1ards lied about the numbers. the tweets i shared exposes them. i also shared similar thing 1 day back. just think 11 million wuhan population, very few cases. the causalities are in millions.

Cain Marko
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Re: Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 21 Mar 2020 14:19

syam wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:wuhan thread post.

those squint eyed ccp bas1ards lied about the numbers. the tweets i shared exposes them. i also shared similar thing 1 day back. just think 11 million wuhan population, very few cases. the causalities are in millions.

As per the dissidents tweet it might have been because of other reasons such as economic hardship although it seems a strange coincidence that the sudden drop in users coincided so well with the covid19 outbreak. There is little doubt that the CCP will go to great lengths to cover up their sh*t. Probly makes the Chernobyl cover up look like child's play.


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