Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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UlanBatori
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Feb 2020 09:54

I feel that quarantine in closed quarters is a fatal error/death sentence. Facilitates the virus jumping to all in the same general space. But I don't know what else to do.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 21 Feb 2020 10:09

Gyan wrote:Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank?

Are we sitting idle & smug? Can nCV catch up with India?

Will warm weather or use of spices in food protect us?


use of spices -- this is a new high for this thread. pakis are using kallonji to treat covid-19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:10

Hospitals in South Korea's Daegu and Gyeongbuk are struggling with a lack of suitable beds amid a rising number of patients with coronavirus - Yonhap

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:11

Three members of the South Korean military, including an officer each from the army, the navy and the air force, have tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:11

Two elementary school students in #Hokkaido, one of them under 10 years old, have been confirmed to be infected with the new #coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:12

Tokyo cancels major indoor events for the next 3 weeks due to coronavirus - Reuters

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby BajKhedawal » 21 Feb 2020 10:16

Japan only 4 months away from July 2020 summer Olympics

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:17

A Canadian woman returning from Iran just tested positive. This just further indicates Iran is now a new epicenter for #SARSCoV2 #COVID19.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:27

China and Nepal media in war of words over coronavirus control claims

Beijing takes exception when Nepalese newspaper publishes article saying ‘authoritarian systems don’t do well when confronting unexpected crises’

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 10:32

Americans stranded at Pakistan airport after cruise ship was denied entry to multiple countries over coronavirus fears.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 12:10

One dead, two kept in isolation for Coronavirus like symptoms at Leh hospital

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 15:33

BREAKING: Another 48 cases of the novel coronavirus have been diagnosed in South Korea.

In total, there are now 204 cases across the country. The number of infections in South Korea has almost doubled in 24 hours.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 16:32

Iran reports 13 new cases of coronavirus, 4 of them in Tehran, and 2 new deaths

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 21 Feb 2020 17:57

sooraj wrote:BREAKING: Another 48 cases of the novel coronavirus have been diagnosed in South Korea.

In total, there are now 204 cases across the country. The number of infections in South Korea has almost doubled in 24 hours.


Japan has over 800. So Korea and Japan about 90% of the cases outside Cheen. This is expected given their heavy economic and cultural ties.

East Asian economy and its supply chains are screwed.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SandeepA » 21 Feb 2020 18:08

where are these numbers coming from? Its not being reported in MSM, why?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 21 Feb 2020 18:36

https://mobile.twitter.com/jkzmc/status/1230830864302370818



Kazama
@jkzmc
ウォールストリートジャーナルの2月21日版。
WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE
Coronavirus-hit Japan limits large gatherings. The rising number of new coronavirus cases makes Japan one of the biggest sites of infection outside China, leading the country to begin suspending major gatherings.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-declares-daegu-special-053727946.html


South Korea Declares Daegu Special Zone, Puts 2.5 M Under Voluntary Quarantine


Shivdeep Dhaliwal
February 21, 2020, 12:37 AM EST



https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/21/china-car-sales-tumble-by-92-per-cent-as-coronavirus-takes-toll-on-industry

China car sales tumble by 92% as coronavirus weighs on industry


Japan and Korea are intertwined with Cheen's economy. Auto sales are a bellweather indicator.

This is a Black Swan event.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Feb 2020 19:11

UlanBatori wrote:I feel that quarantine in closed quarters is a fatal error/death sentence. Facilitates the virus jumping to all in the same general space. But I don't know what else to do.


Chinese prisoners reported infected. So yes, confinement is a killer. The stuff comes through HVAC ducts. Better to take chances outdoors?

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Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Peregrine » 21 Feb 2020 20:02

Another virus hotspot surfaces in China prisons – AFP

BEIJING: More than 500 cases of the newcoronavirus have been detected in prisons across China, authorities said Friday, prompting the sacking of a slew of officials. Hubei, the hard-hit central province where the virus emerged late last year, said Friday that 271 cases were reported by its prisons on Thursday, including 220 that had previously not been known to provincial authorities.

Most of those cases were at the Wuhan Women's Prison in Hubei's capital, He Ping, director for prison administration at the Ministry of Justice, told reporters.

The warden of Wuhan women's prison had been removed for failing to prevent the outbreak, according to local Communist Party newspaper Hubei Daily.

Seven guards and 200 inmates also tested positive for the virus at Rencheng prison in eastern Shandong province, the provincial health commission said at a press conference.

Xie Weijun, head of Shandong's justice department, ad seven other officials were sacked over the outbreak, officials said.

Wu Lei, director of Shandong's prison administration, said the new cases showed that "the implementation of our prevention and control measures have not been effective".

The central government has dispatched a team to launch a "comprehensive investigation" into the outbreak at Rencheng Prison, state news agency Xinhua reported.

Another 34 cases were found at Shilifeng prison in eastern Zhejiang province, leading to the ouster of its director and another official.

A policeman had "deliberately concealed" information about a visit to Wuhan – the epicentre of the outbreak -- in mid-January and continued to work at the prison, said Xu Xiaobo, deputy director of the Zhejiang Provincial Justice Department.

"The policeman... was diagnosed with new coronavirus on January 29. He had worked long hours and has come into contact with many people, causing many prisoners to become infected," Xu said.

"All the cases were imported cases. All patients are observed in isolation, and all confirmed patients are sent for treatment, " he added.

Xu said no deaths had occurred in the prisons because of the coronavirus. One suspected case was found at the Hubei Juvenile Detention Center, He said.

Hubei announced earlier on Friday that a total of 411 new cases of the virus were confirmed in the province on Thursday, but later revised its figure up to 631 to include the prison numbers.

The clusters came as Chinese authorities have pointed to a drop in officially reported new cases this week as evidence that quarantines and other drastic measures to contain the virus are working.

Most of China remains paralysed over fears of contagion, with schools remaining closed and Beijing ordering those returning to the city to self-quarantine for 14 days.

New cases at two hospitals in the country's capital have also emerged.

Health officials said 36 patients, medical workers and family members have been infected with the virus at Beijing's Fuxing hospital, which has been partially sealed off since January 31.

An elderly woman receiving kidney treatment at Peking University People's Hospital also tested positive after two infected relatives visited her earlier this month, the hospital said.

The virus spreads through droplets disseminated by sneezing or coughing, highlighting the risks for large groups of confined people, possibly without adequate access to soap and water.

Members of China's Uighur minority living in exile have also warned of the risk of the coronavirus spreading in internment camps, where rights groups say more than one million people have been rounded up by authorities.

Cheers Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kati » 21 Feb 2020 20:48

As per cnbc.com:

8:50 am (Feb 21, 2020): Beirut hospital confirms first case of coronavirus in Lebanon
The first case of coronavirus was confirmed in Lebanon on Friday after a woman arriving from Iran tested positive, a source at a Beirut hospital where the woman is being quarantined told Reuters. There were no further details immediately available on the case. Lebanon’s health minister was expected to hold a news conference on Friday to address the case. — Reuters

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 21:58

Italian town of Codogno closes schools, bars, eateries, and sporting facilities until at least Sunday after 6 cases of coronavirus were confirmed - ANSA

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 22:00

UPDATE: All 6 of the new coronavirus cases in Italy are in serious condition - ANSA

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Feb 2020 22:02

From See Dee See:
2009 (H1N1pdm09) pandemic resulted in 60.8 million illnesses, 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone" between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.


IOW, in the first 3 months, some 75,000 deaths must have occurred, worldwide.

I guess this was a "non-seasonal flu" {UBCN is now expert in the Terminological Exactitude of these things}, generally associated with associating with pakistanis or pakistan.

{***yawn****}

I guess I'll go out to the All-U-Can-Pig-Out Dera Chetti Khan Feeding Trough to Eat Drink & B Merry.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 21 Feb 2020 22:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 21 Feb 2020 22:09

Iran's health ministry says 'it is possible' coronavirus exists in all Iranian cities; there are currently 18 confirmed cases, 4 dead - Reuters

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 22 Feb 2020 00:31

Atmavik wrote:
Gyan wrote:Should we not open a thread about precautions Indian Govt can take or preparation it can make, without breaking the Bank?

Are we sitting idle & smug? Can nCV catch up with India?

Will warm weather or use of spices in food protect us?


use of spices -- this is a new high for this thread. pakis are using kallonji to treat covid-19


This derision when some of the most potent anti viral drugs are manufactured from spices is a bit much. It may well be something humble, like the star anise, that ends up providing the medicine.

Till then, do surya namaskar, pranayam, eat vitamin D/Sun, turmeric, ghee, periodic fasts to get past the disease. And dont forget to wash your hands practice proper sneeze/cough hygiene.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 22 Feb 2020 01:41

UlanBatori wrote:From See Dee See:
2009 (H1N1pdm09) pandemic resulted in 60.8 million illnesses, 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone" between April 12, 2009 and April 10, 2010. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.


IOW, in the first 3 months, some 75,000 deaths must have occurred, worldwide.

I guess this was a "non-seasonal flu" {UBCN is now expert in the Terminological Exactitude of these things}, generally associated with associating with pakistanis or pakistan.

{***yawn****}

I guess I'll go out to the All-U-Can-Pig-Out Dera Chetti Khan Feeding Trough to Eat Drink & B Merry.


So what was the fatality and hospitalization rate? From your link:

we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1


max 18000 deaths / 61 x 1000 x 1000 cases = 18 / 61,000 = 0.03%.

What was the number of hospitalizations?

274,304 / 61 x 1000 x 1000 = 0.4 %.

Case fatality rate for SARS 2.0 is estimated to be anywhere from 1 - 2%.
While hospitalizations/severe caseload is estimated to be around 5-10%.

This is a disease that is perhaps 10 times worse than the seasonal flu. Its not the end of the world, but its perhaps the worst disease to hit the world in a hundred years. Given how much travel has become easier over the past 100 years (last time we were hit by a real pandemic.. 1919 flu), how much 'older' and less robust people are, how densely we live, how much more common air conditioning is.. we need to be really careful and at least make attempts to slow it down till we are into summer. If its as infectious in summer as it is today, it may not help much.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 02:08

Perhaps someone should plot # of reported cases vs. time, and # of reported deaths vs. time. May show that as time progresses, the # of deaths per reported case falls to nothing, while # of cases jumps, because ppl learn to diagnose. I don't remember this level of panic associated with H1N1, to match the 300K dead figure in just 1 year. Remember that the world was just coming off the 2008 economic crash and BO was in power. The stock market was zooming in 2009 (OK, maybe after April).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 04:13

Tarrel and Deepel Fiends support one another: Cheen supports Pak students being held in Woohan

China backs Pakistan decision not to evacuate students

A Chinese diplomat backed Pakistan's decision not to evacuate Pakistani students from the province at the centre of China's coronavirus outbreak, a day after parents confronted government ministers demanding their children be brought home.

Pakistan ruled out bringing back more than 1,000 students in Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, where three-quarters of the more than 2,000 deaths from the outbreak have been recorded.

"If such large number of students come back, this will cost huge health operations for the Pakistani government. If the isolation facilities are not ready, this can cause another outbreak of this virus in Pakistan," Li Bijian, Consul General of China in Karachi, told reporters.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 22 Feb 2020 05:54

https://nypost.com/2020/02/21/cult-megachurch-suspected-of-spreading-coronavirus-in-south-korea/
Members of a controversial South Korean megachurch labeled a “cult” could be responsible for spreading the deadly coronavirus throughout the country, according to a new report.

Authorities are eyeing the Daegu branch of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, where a 61-year-old woman known as Patient No. 31 is believed to have attended Sunday services despite developing the illness, The New York Times reported.

“Her behavior is not surprising to people familiar with the church,” Chung Yun-seok, an expert on religious cults who runs the website Christian Portal News, told the Times. “To them, getting sick is a sin because it prevents them from doing God’s work.”

“Unlike other churches, Shincheonji makes its members sit on the floor tightly together during services, in neat, military-like ranks and files,” said Lee, who left the church in 2015. “We were not supposed to have anything on our faces, like glasses or masks. We were trained to sing our hymns loudly.”“We were taught not to be afraid of illness,” she added. “We were taught not to care about such worldly things like jobs, ambition or passion. Everything was focused on proselytizing, even when we were sick.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 22 Feb 2020 06:13

UlanBatori wrote:Perhaps someone should plot # of reported cases vs. time, and # of reported deaths vs. time. May show that as time progresses, the # of deaths per reported case falls to nothing, while # of cases jumps, because ppl learn to diagnose. I don't remember this level of panic associated with H1N1, to match the 300K dead figure in just 1 year. Remember that the world was just coming off the 2008 economic crash and BO was in power. The stock market was zooming in 2009 (OK, maybe after April).


This has already been done by multiple people.. The CFR coming out of China is remarkable stable at 2.1% and out of 'other' countries (Japan, Singapore, France..) at 1%.

H1N1 was only very communicable, but did not cause severe disease. It was actually milder than the 'regular' influenza seasons, despite the earlier scares. SARS-1 was communicable but caused such severe disease that after the protective measures in place, it died out on its own, killing or incapacitating most of its hosts fairly quickly (just like, say Ebola..). MERS was not communicable human-human, only camel-human.

SARS-2 or Covid2019 is highly communicable (probably more than H1N1!), asymptomatic for days/weeks, and causes severe disease requiring hospitalization/ICU in a large fraction of the population - 5-10%, kills a small number 1-2% and only a nasty flu/viral disease in most cases.

If the 1% fatality number holds, we are looking at 60 million deaths worldwide. With the disease getting into 30 countries now, many where the state is weak (Iran, Lebanon) or nonexistent! The genie is out of the bottle. Even if China controls the disease to a smolder in China, this thing will keep spreading and breaking out from this country or the next.

We have seen community transmission in Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran so far..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 22 Feb 2020 06:47

norther calif has two new cases confirmed. 59 Hong Kong police are quarantined after 1 is confirmed. iran cases are up to 18

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91PvosqXUFU

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 22 Feb 2020 07:23

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 08:36

^Sudeepji, if you can find those plots vs time please direct me to them. Updated as of a couple of days ago, I can take it from there. Snapshots on random days in random posts do not constitute such a plot.

How do you figure 1%?
Of the 640-plus Diamond Princess population that showed infection only 1 or 2 are reported dead after about 3 weeks. This is the only really controlled population that can be used for measurement. Yes they had "constant" care but not by a hospital, only a harried bunch of terrified Indian sailors and stewards, themselves living on borrowed time.

The 2.1% from China is remarkably stable, and hence obviously and deliberately cooked. And intended to BE SEEN to be cooked. That's what I mean by smart media management.
They decide what the consequence will be of any news release, and tune the news to the desired consequences, not the other way round. I've seen this a lot in what is called "Hi-Fidelity Computational Aerodynamics With Large Eddy Simulation Turbulence Modeling". You tell me a drag coefficient for a complex configuration, I will "predict" that (3 weeks later) to 4 decimal places! And call it Validation!

Someone once asked innocently:
Why do they need computers? Isn't a piece of tracing paper enough?
And that brought the entire Mafia down on the head of her professor. Because it was the Perfect Storm question that exposed the scam.

If NASA / US academia can do that and call it "serious" "scienfific peer-reviewed journal publication" then what is wrong with Chinese fudging their news releases in a good cause?

Back to H1N1. So the CDC estimates between 151K and 575K (i love the precision!) dead inside 1 year, out of 60 million infected.
But what about 10 years later? Per the UBCN Population Model, it is safe to say:
Ten years after the H1N1 pandemic, over 60/8, or 7.5 million of the infected patients are dead!
(from old age among other things)

So I do not believe that COVID2019 is any more vicious than H1N1 (for the serious cases). Both kill(ed).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 22 Feb 2020 09:00

^^^This video shows the graph of COVID vs SARS vs MERS vs swine flu. at the end it adds spanish flu but that was before people knew about virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU

the cruise ship and now soko will be the best data set. as of now looks like covid-19 spreads very fast but is not very leathal. to throw in a CT remember the story of INSAS using a 5.56 * 45 NATO round as it was thought that in war injury is worse than death.

i read a few other news reports that men are more likely to get it but i dont think the source is reliable.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Feb 2020 09:10

I think this thread will be a fascinating resource, looking back years from now, on how accurate these expert and media predictions are in the face of an evolving situation, where nobody really knows what's going on. Everybody seems to try to outdo the other person in imagining the worst-case scenario, because, you know, better safe than sorry. I have my own idea right now, that this thing is not going to cause the predicted millions of deaths, and is going to be much much less severe (fingers crossed, hope I'm right, and absolutely no complacency or flippancy involved in this prediction).

BTW, here's a good resource with numbers and charts (could have been posted before).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -new-cases

Trending the lines and prediction of the future numbers based on the above data is very much possible, I might take a stab at it.It

Also, it is true that viruses evolve, but they most often evolve into something less virulent, so as not to lose their host. These viruses which suddenly jump species are the most dangerous for that reason - the virus isn't so virulent to its wild host, and suddenly comes across the unfamiliar human physiology. It will take some time for it to learn not to spook its new host, but it usually learns.

Eating everything which moves and having *** with everything which moves are both bad ideas for this reason. Chinis are into the former, Pakis into the latter :-? .
Last edited by sudarshan on 22 Feb 2020 09:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 22 Feb 2020 09:15

sudarshan wrote:I think this thread will be a fascinating resource, looking back years from now, on how accurate these expert and media predictions are in the face of an evolving situation, where nobody really knows what's going on. Everybody seems to try to outdo the other person in imagining the worst-case scenario, because, you know, better safe than sorry. I have my own idea right now, that this thing is not going to cause the predicted millions of deaths, and is going to be much much less severe (fingers crossed, hope I'm right, and absolutely no complacency or flippancy involved in this prediction).

BTW, here's a good resource with numbers and charts (could have been posted before).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -new-cases

Trending the lines and prediction of the future numbers based on the above data is very much possible, I might take a stab at it.



sudarshan ji,

i agree with ur assessment. but during the swine flu outbreak we did not see this kind of quarantines. cheeen has locked down entire cities with millions of people. the worry right now is that no one trusts the numbers coming out of china and are preparing for the worst.

btw wall street also seems to agree with u.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 22 Feb 2020 09:19

You know, like UB ji said above, they might be making things way worse with those forced quarantines, especially the ones where they weld apartment doors shut or force families into refrigerator-sized cartons. Or like that cruise ship.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 22 Feb 2020 09:22

sudarshan wrote:
Eating everything which moves and having *** with everything which moves are both bad ideas for this reason. Chinis are into the former, Pakis into the latter :-? .



you had to throw in the last line didnt you :lol: plisss do pray for the donkeys of badin tonight.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Feb 2020 09:29

sudeepj wrote:

We have seen community transmission in Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran so far..

That's what, among other things, is quite concerning.

US CDC ==>
This virus represents a "Tremendous Public Health Threat. Likely that Community Spread may eventually happen in the United States"


One small data-point, one Bay-area person who came back on Feb 2 from China - showed no system till now (> 2 weeks) was admitted in Hospital after all these days..

Some are extremely, as they should be, concerned. This is not only possible, but some say, even likely.
With 5 advanced screening in 5 US airports starting, we have more data.

There are some more detailed papers / data in JAMA etc.. for those who want to analyze.

Meanwhile, as someone noted: "Most of the prediction based on this data analysis is likely come out to be wrong" but "all such studies are *very* important.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Feb 2020 09:32

Found the following article quite educational ... old research but still many new things I learned.

Bats Harbor Hundreds Of Coronaviruses, And Spillovers Aren't Rare

So transmission from Bat's to humans is not that rare..( or what I thought)
... "We found evidence for, in total, from all the sampling we did in China, about 400 new strains of coronaviruses...

That means 400 potential candidates to spark another outbreak. After all, a coronavirus caused a massive outbreak in China back in 2002 — severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. And this current outbreak is from a SARS-related coronavirus.


It gets worse: Scientists had thought spillovers were rare — that bat coronaviruses weren't generally capable of infecting humans, so it took complicated steps. Step one: A bat coronavirus would have to infect some animal species that had closer contact with people than bats do. Step two: While in that other animal's body, the virus would need to pick up new genetic code.

But the sampling project found that those steps are not needed, says Olival.

"What we showed was that SARS-related viruses in these bat populations have the potential to go directly into human cells and do not need that extra mutational step [of] infecting another host."


(From what I can see - going over old published papers that although bat/human contact is rare but places where humans live near bats they have found the viruses in sample of population etc..)

Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 22 Feb 2020 09:47

For the record here: From CDC/WHO/Worldometer site /
Updates for last 2 days:

February 22

2 new cases in Australia (Victoria residents) from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, bringing the country's total to 21 (of which 6 repatriated from the cruise ship in Japan)
1 new case in Japan.
142 new cases in South Korea, of which 92 linked to the Qingdao Daenam Hospital, 38 to the Sincheon Daegu Church, and 12 unknown pending investigation.
1 new case in Italy (Cremona, Lombardy region). Schools in ten towns will stay closed for two weeks.
"People must be distantiated right now, because this is a virus that is transmitted very effectively at close range" said the director of the infectious diseases department of the Higher Institute of Health, Gianni Rezza.
****

February 21:

US CDC: this virus represents a "Tremendous Public Health Threat. Likely that Community Spread may eventually happen in the United States"
WHO: "Although the total number of COVID-19 cases outside of China remains relatively small, we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case"
397 new cases and 109 new deaths occurred in China (of which 366 new cases and 106 new deaths in Hubei province) on February 21, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China, which has also reported revisions to Feb. 19 and Feb. 20 numbers, both national and for Hubei. We will adjust our statistics accordingly.

1st death in Italy: a 77 year old man in Vò Euganeo (Padua). The man had been in the hospital for the past ten days due to other health problems. Schools and shops in the town to be closed in an attempt to prevent the virus from spreading, said Veneto governor Zaia.
3 new cases in South Korea.
1 new case in the United States in Sacramento County, California. The individual had returned from China on Feb. 2 and has so far shown no symptoms.
12 new cases in Italy. Hundreds waiting for test results. 10 towns, 50,000 people, placed in precautionary voluntary quarantine. Two trains with suspected cases blocked. Schools, workplaces, municipal and private offices, 3 train stations, coffee shops, and public places closed in the affected towns at least until Sunday. New cases include:
5 health workers and 3 patients in the Codogno Hospital.
the son of a bar owner who practiced sport with the man.
3 clients of the bar.
a couple, aged 78 and 67 years old, in critical condition in the Veneto region (the man has later died).
7 new cases in the United States from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, in addition to the 11 previously confirmed, for a total of 18 from the ship.
2 new cases in the United Arab Emirates: contacts of a previous case.
2 new cases in Australia: two Queenslanders women, aged 54 and 55, who had been evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
1 new case in Singapore.
1st case in Lebanon confirmed by the Minister of Health.
Hubei province in China has corrected its Feb. 20 previously reported numbers to include 220 additional new cases reported "on a hand-written card" by the prison department during the night. The total is being revised from 62,442 to 62,662 cases.
3 new cases in Italy, contacts of the cases reported earlier today near Milan, in Lombardy region. "All citizens of Castiglione d'Adda, Codogno and Casalpusterlengo are invited, as a precaution, to stay home and avoid social contacts" a regional government official said in a note.
12 new cases in Japan, of which 3 in Tokyo.
1 new death in South Korea: a 54 year-old woman.
1st case in Israel: a passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship who was found to have the virus only after returning to Israel.
2 new deaths and 13 new cases in Iran: 7 in Qom, 4 in Tehran, and 2 in Rasht.
2 new cases in Italy: the wife (eight-month pregnant) and friend of the previously confirmed case of a 38-year-old man near Milan, who is now in critical condition in intensive care. In early February, the man had dinner with a friend who had recently returned from China. He went to the emergency room on Feb.15 and again on Feb. 19. The friend is now undergoing tests. About 160 contacts of the man have been put under quarantine. Emergency procedures are being set in place in the firm where the man works.
11 new cases in the United States are former passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan who were evacuated on Feb. 17. The CDC has verified the test results performed by the Nebraska Public Health lab.
1 death in China, yesterday, of a 29-year-old doctor in Wuahn, Peng Yinhua, who worked in respiratory and critical care at the First People’s Hospital in Jiangxia district, Wuahn. He was hospitalized on Jan. 25 and his condition dramatically worsened by Jan. 30.
48 new cases in South Korea, bringing the total to 204. "Currently, the COVID-19 situation at home is that the scope of mass outbreak via a single exposure is relatively big," KCDC Director Jung Eun-kyeong said in a statement.
2 new cases in Taiwan: the 40-year-old daughter and the 20-year-old granddaughter of a previously confirmed case.
3 new cases in Japan, including a woman in her 40s who had a low-grade fever on Feb. 16, a 38° fever on Feb. 17, and is now being treated at home.
1 new case in Canada (British Columbia): a woman in her 30s recently returned from travel to Iran.
45 new cases in South Korea.
1 new case in the United States (Humboldt County, in Northern California). A close contact who has symptoms is being tested as well. They are both "doing well" and self-isolating at home.


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