Levant crisis - III

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UlanBatori
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 09:24

Glad to see that Gen. Smirnoff is back on the jaab.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby hnair » 11 Feb 2020 09:52

UlanBatori wrote:It's getting bad because Turkish military is attacking Syrian army inside Syrian territory, and the UN has their thumbs all inside their asses. Only a smart Russian jhapad administered in the guise of a Syrian jhapad will discourage the Turks; alternative is for Russians to directly do the hitting. They are getting close to the latter. And then since Erdogan is obliging NATO by putting his troops in Libya to face off against the Russian-backed militia in Libya... he may get NATO to intervene to save his terrorists in Syria.


Usually the Russians roll up a brochure and smack it on Sree Edogan's desk. Last time that jhapad was in the form of a S400 sale. This time I wager a XX-35 (Mig or Su) sale. So they can use it to shoot down more Su-25 and Su-24 Frogfoots. Those are getting old

(I think khan, yahoodis and bear are using Syria as the world's largest arms brochure)

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rony » 11 Feb 2020 21:46

Jihadis backed by Turkey shoot down Syrian helicopter as Assad secures the strategic M5 highway

The fighting recently escalated with two separate clashes between Syrian and Turkish troops, killing 13 on each side, including 5 Turkish soldiers who were killed on Monday.

Turkey, which is a main backer of the Syrian opposition, has sent hundreds of vehicles into Idlib apparently to prevent government forces from reaching the border areas with Turkey. The country is home to some 3.6 million Syrian refugees and has concerns of more flowing into its border.
g

Amid the fighting near Nairab, insurgents shot down the government helicopter gunship, killing the two crew members on board..

Hours later, an airstrike hit the city of Idlib, the provincial capital, killing seven people and wounding nearly two dozen, according to the Syrian Civil Defense, also known as White Helmets. The Observatory said the airstrike killed 12 civilians, half of them children, and wounded about 30.

Opposition activists said the airstrike on the city of Idlib, that is home to some 800,000 people, was carried out by government warplanes in response to the shooting down of the helicopter.


The Observatory also reported Syrian troops have secured the highway that links southern Syria with the northern city of Aleppo.

An unnamed Syrian military official was quoted by pro-government media as saying that they still have five villages to take before securing the highway.

The highway, known as M5, starts in the country’s south near the border with Jordan and moves north all the way to Aleppo. Its capture is vital for the country’s economy as well as for sending reinforcements.

The highway’s capture will mark another victory for Assad whose forces have been making solid gains since the end of 2015 with the help of Russian airstrikes and Iran-backed fighters on the ground.

For the past three years, government forces have been capturing parts of the 450-kilometer (280-mile) highway that cuts through the country’s four largest cities.



Video of the Syrian Mi-17 shot down by the Jihadis going down amid chants of Allah ho Akbar


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Feb 2020 04:25

From Peto Lucem Twitter feed:

Feb. 11 A.J@aj_observations
Al-Assal has been liberated by the #SAA. There's no stopping the valiant #Syrianarmy from cleansing its land of Al Qaeda terrorists
3:10 PM · Feb 11, 2020·Twitter for Android

Hanief Haider @haniefhaider Feb 11 Replying to @aj_observations
Is that Khan Al Assal where the first chemical attack by Al Qaeda took place March 2013?
A.J @aj_observations
Feb 11 Indeed it was
*************************
Peto Lucem Retweeted
Ahmad Al-Issa @ahmadalissa Feb 11
#Syria's Great victory: For the first time in eight years, the M5 motorway from #Aleppo to #Homs and #Damascus is under the control of the #SyrianArmy.
Peto Lucem Retweeted Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
Feb 11 For the first since 2012, the Syrian Army controls the entire road between Damascus and Aleppo. #Syria.
Peto Lucem Retweeted
Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai Feb 12
#Russia rescued a #US patrol caught in Khirbit Ammo #Qamishli by the inhabitants who refused to see US soldiers crossing their village. US forces, who feared a stone thrown against their vehicle, shot/killed a 14-year-old Syrian boy. US is stealing Syrian oil & won't be welcomed.
Peto Lucem Retweeted. Kevork Almassian @KevorkAlmassian Feb 12
The SAA prevented today a US convoy from crossing Khirbet Amo, south Qamishli, and the villagers supported the SAA and threw stones on the US patrol which shot & killed 1 civilian.
In the video, a civilian tells the occupation: "You cannot pass even if there are 100 agreements."

Peto Lucem Retweeted, Al-Masdar News @TheArabSource Feb 13
Syrian Army approaching strategic military base in west #Aleppo https://is.gd/VBABd8 #Syria

Peto Lucem Retweeted Ali @CoolHuh_ 5h (Feb. 14)
Today another US patrol tried to cross an SAA checkpoint but was stopped & turned around.
US commander tells the Syrian officer "we are here to bring peace just like the Russians" , Syrian officer replied " Wherever US goes it brings death& destruction, u are not welcomed here"

Peto Lucem Retweeted Hala Jaber @HalaJaber 3h
A #US commander to #Syrian officer via translator:
“Wr are here to bring peace just like the #Russians.”
He must have missed the memo from #Trump about their mission: “We are leaving soldiers to secure the oil.”
Peto Lucem Retweeted. Al-Masdar News @TheArabSource 2h
Russian Air Force unleashes heavy attack near Turkish border https://is.gd/R9CpLe #Aleppo #Idlib #Syria

Peto Lucem Retweeted Ali @CoolHuh_
Martyr captain Bashar Issa, whose helicopter shot down today, with the legendary commander Martyr General Issam Zahreddine. (Image)
Issa conducted tens of air supply operations above Dier al-zour during the siege.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 19 Feb 2020 07:07

Strange behaviour by Erdogan, pouring all those troops into Idlib without an end goal, sending troops to Libya, all those anti-Kurd invasions over the past few years. None of those operations made very much sense militarily. Doesn't it seem like Erdogan is always trying to find creative new ways to keep the troops occupied? Is he deliberately trying to keep the military so tied up with all these ill-conceived interventions that they never even think about resisting his agenda in the future? Partly revenge on the military for the coup, partly pragmatism (a preoccupied military too distracted by war to consider another coup...)?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2020 08:20

Can't tell. I THINK the problem is Erdogan's belief that the TFTA Ottoman fauj is NATO-trained and hence superior to the scrawny SAA/Hezbollah/Iranians. Also that RuAF will not bomb his fauj. Right now he has pumped another 300 vehicles into Idlib.
He has all sorts of "deconflctig" deals with the Bear, but clearly the Bear is getting restive.

Local reports say that when they are attacked they scream that they are NATO!!!
His ground bissing contests with SAA have gone quite well for him, with signficant death and destruction inflicted on SAA. How long Putin and vodkov will stand by and watch is the question. Already RuAF is hammering close to the Turkish border. Plus Idlib is too close to Latakia/ Hyenim bases and they are coming under attack from Erdogan's pooches.

IOW, Erdogan thinks it's relatively low-risk for his fauj to go into syria. But how NATO they are, remains to be seen.
To me the mystery is Putin. With complete victory in sight in Syria, he basically withdrew his offensive capabilities, withdrew his claws. Just a small force left in Syria. Is he being very disciplined, or is he preparing Phase 2?
After the liberation of Deir-ez-Zor and Aleppo city, he got Assad and the Iranians to regroup etc.

As a general rule, any time someone TFTA puts tanks and APCs on ships and crosses a sea, and arrives to grand pomp and ceremony, their sdre enemies rub their hands in glee - because the TFTA is now stretched with a long logistics lifeline. It's a good bet that the tanks aint coming home. Will their crews come back in body bags?

Putin can see this in a mirror, so he pulled back from Syria before the grand Victory Push. But now he has to finish the job at least in Aleppo province, and dent the Turks in Idlib. As Kanan says, Erdogan seems to be playing with fire, pushing the Bear into a corner. I can't figure out what the US Patrols are doing in the middle of all this, either. The best US interest right now is to see Erdogan humiliated.

Phase 2 **COULD** (maybe wishful thinking) a direct Courier Delivery of vodka bottles to Erdogan's palace, or a direct RuAF campaign to smash the Turkish fauj inside Syria, leading to a 1917-type coup in Turkey. Also, to do something nasty via Putin's proxies in Libya.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 19 Feb 2020 10:55

UlanBatori wrote:Can't tell. I THINK the problem is Erdogan's belief that the TFTA Ottoman fauj is NATO-trained and hence superior to the scrawny SAA/Hezbollah/Iranians. Also that RuAF will not bomb his fauj. Right now he has pumped another 300 vehicles into Idlib.
He has all sorts of "deconflctig" deals with the Bear, but clearly the Bear is getting restive.

Local reports say that when they are attacked they scream that they are NATO!!!
His ground bissing contests with SAA have gone quite well for him, with signficant death and destruction inflicted on SAA. How long Putin and vodkov will stand by and watch is the question. Already RuAF is hammering close to the Turkish border. Plus Idlib is too close to Latakia/ Hyenim bases and they are coming under attack from Erdogan's pooches.

IOW, Erdogan thinks it's relatively low-risk for his fauj to go into syria. But how NATO they are, remains to be seen.
To me the mystery is Putin. With complete victory in sight in Syria, he basically withdrew his offensive capabilities, withdrew his claws. Just a small force left in Syria. Is he being very disciplined, or is he preparing Phase 2?
After the liberation of Deir-ez-Zor and Aleppo city, he got Assad and the Iranians to regroup etc.

As a general rule, any time someone TFTA puts tanks and APCs on ships and crosses a sea, and arrives to grand pomp and ceremony, their sdre enemies rub their hands in glee - because the TFTA is now stretched with a long logistics lifeline. It's a good bet that the tanks aint coming home. Will their crews come back in body bags?

Putin can see this in a mirror, so he pulled back from Syria before the grand Victory Push. But now he has to finish the job at least in Aleppo province, and dent the Turks in Idlib. As Kanan says, Erdogan seems to be playing with fire, pushing the Bear into a corner. I can't figure out what the US Patrols are doing in the middle of all this, either. The best US interest right now is to see Erdogan humiliated.

Phase 2 **COULD** (maybe wishful thinking) a direct Courier Delivery of vodka bottles to Erdogan's palace, or a direct RuAF campaign to smash the Turkish fauj inside Syria, leading to a 1917-type coup in Turkey. Also, to do something nasty via Putin's proxies in Libya.


Russia does not have sufficient firepower in theatre to keep the TuAF from obliterating its bases and assets in Syria, if it actually came to that. Of course were the Turks to do such a crazy thing, wiping out the Russian force in Syria, I can't imagine the Russian response from across the Black Sea. The wrath of a betrayed and humiliated Russian nuclear bear, NATO ally or not, would surely be bad news for Turkey.

The Russia-Turkey relationship is one of the weirdest in all of international relations. For bitter enemies, they sure do have a lot of shared projects together. All these business deals and signed contracts and pipelines and yet it does not stop them from being essentially on the brink of war full time.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nandakumar » 19 Feb 2020 15:24

Russia- Turkey relations had always been fraught over the years. I recall that the Ottomans initially wanted to join Britain in the First World War. But knowing the tense relationship that Turkey had with Russia, Britain did not encourage it. Britain needed Russia on its side in the coming war with Germany far more than a weak Turkey whose imperial influence was ebbing. The rest is history. The Ottoman ended up siding with Germany and got soundly thrashed. Kamal Ataturk seized power in Turkey. The deposed prince was given protective custody by Britain which was somehow spun as having been arrested by Britain and causing some unrest among Arab muslims. Indian muslims in Malabar too rioted leading to mass killing of Hindus what latter day historians described very conveniently as Moplah Rebellion.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2020 18:48

^ Oh!!! One learns something new every din. The Mo.Re. was just an early edition of the Bangalore Fridin Bus-Burning of more recent times!! :idea:
Habit. How many momeen ended up with early entry to Houristan as a result I wonder.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Feb 2020 20:20

Gets more interesting...

‘Worst case scenario’: Kremlin slams Turkey's threat of military operation against Syrian government in Idlib

Turkey sending troops to Syria to fight against the government would be the ‘worst case scenario’, Kremlin spokesman said after Ankara threatened that such an operation was imminent.

Turkey’s President Erdogan said on Wednesday Ankara was prepared to launch a military incursion into Idlib to force the Syrian army out. Russia’s reaction to such a development would depend on what goals the Turkish troops decide to pursue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“If it will be an operation against terrorist forces in Idlib, that would certainly be within the spirit” of Russia’s agreements with Turkey, he said.

But if it is about an operation against legitimate Syrian armed forces, that would certainly be the worst case scenario.

Russia and Turkey agreed on the process of de-escalation in Idlib, the last stronghold of anti-government forces in Syria. Under the so-called Sochi agreement Turkey is supposed to use its clout among the armed groups to scale down and eventually halt attacks from within the province. The arrangement was taken as an alternative to a major military offensive by Damascus, which, Ankara said, would cause a major exodus of refugees from Syria to Turkey.

In reality this didn’t happen, Peskov said.

“We were satisfied with the agreements that were reached in Sochi over a year ago and the satisfaction was mutual. We were absolutely not satisfied after militants and terrorist groups started launching attacks from Idlib territory against the Syrian armed forces and Russian military sites,” he said. “That is when our satisfaction ended.”
The talks between Russia and Turkey on how to proceed in Idlib, which were held earlier this week, failed to produce a breakthrough. Commenting on the volatile situation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dispersed rumors that Moscow had a new set of demands for Ankara and said the two parties simply “need to implement everything that our leaders have agreed upon.”



He added the Syrian government forces were acting in Idlib “in response to gross violations of the agreements” by anti-government groups.

Damascus has been responding to cross-border attacks with its own operations, taking control over parts of Idlib. The advances however put them in proximity with Turkish forces stationed in Syria as observers. In at least two incidents clashes between them resulted in deaths of Turkish soldiers, infuriating Ankara.

The Russian military said one of the incidents may have been caused by the failure of the Turkish side to warn about the movement of their convoy.

Turkish President Recep Erdogan said on Wednesday he was prepared to launch a military offensive in Idlib at any moment. Speaking before Turkish lawmakers, he said Turkey will not allow the Syrian government to take control of the province.


Turkey faces strategic defeat in Idlib after failing to live up to its commitments on Syria
Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer. He served in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, in General Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons inspector. Follow him on Twitter @RealScottRitter



Under the 2018 Sochi agreement, Turkey was supposed to disarm and disassociate itself from the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Its failure to do so has sown the seeds of Turkey’s inevitable defeat in Syria.

When Turkey threw its weight behind the anti-Assad rebellion in 2011, it did so believing that it would be able to dictate the outcome on the ground by controlling the main organized resistance forces, namely the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA), formed from the ranks of defectors from the Syrian Army and various bands of Islamist fighters affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. But the rebellion took on a life of its own, and in 2012 a Syrian Islamist fighting for Al-Qaeda in Iraq returned to Syria to form a new resistance organization loyal to Al-Qaeda which became known as the Al Nusra Front.

Over time, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s Al Nusra Front emerged as the most effective anti-regime combat organization, surpassing the Turkish-controlled FSA for relevance on the battlefield. Al Nusra Front’s Al-Qaeda affiliation, however, impaired its ability to receive outside funding, arms and equipment, and starting in 2015 Al Nusra Front underwent a series of rebranding efforts, before assuming its current name, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in early 2017. But the rebranding efforts could not alter the fact that HTS remained a designated terrorist group in the eyes of much of the world, including Turkey.

Today, Jolani’s HTS comprises the bulk of the 30,000 or so anti-regime fighters operating in Idlib province, the last bastion of rebel-controlled territory in Syria. The Syrian Army, backed by pro-Iranian militias and the Russian Air Force, has been attacking both FSA and HTS positions in Idlib since 2015 to restore Syrian government authority over the area. In September 2018, to spare the civilian population in Idlib from the depravations of war, a ceasefire was agreed to by the leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran during a summit convened in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 01:14

Closer to war:

Al Masdar News, eb. 19, 2020:
Russia responds to Turkey’s threats: ‘We will not stop supporting legitimate gov’t in Syria’
BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:10 P.M.) – Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, announced on Wednesday that his country will continue to support the legitimate government in Syria in its war against terrorism.

“We will not stop supporting the legitimate government in Syria, which is fighting a war against international terrorism,” Nevenzia said during the UN Security Council session.

“We will continue our efforts on our part to normalize the situation in Syria. We consider it important to establish historical ties between the various ethnic groups in Syria, who have suffered enormous damage during attempts to tear the country apart,” Nebenzia continued.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 19:14

Turkish/ISIS offensive starts in Nayrab, Syria
Turkish tanks and infantry seen on the move. Russians withdrew from Saraquib. Turkish tanks reported destroyed near Nayrab. Airstrikes may be starting...
Nayrab as v c it, is close enough to Aleppo International Airport to shoot down airliners, and cuts the M4 highway.
Saraquib is 67km away on the M5, in Idlib province.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 19:32


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 21:31

And so it starts:

‘Terrorists’ launch major attack against Syrian Army in Idlib, reports say ‘pro-Turkish’ militants involved {Turk version of Paki "Mujaheddin/ Razakars"}
20 Feb, 2020 14:05 / Updated 41 minutes ago
Syrian state media say “terrorists” have launched a major offensive in the province of Idlib. Some reports suggest “pro-Turkish” militants are also taking part as tensions between Ankara and Damascus mount.
Citing its reporter on the ground, SANA news agency said on Thursday that government troops forces have been repelling militant attacks towards the village of Al-Nayrab, southeast of Idlib. The community was liberated by Damascus earlier this month when the Syrian Army made gains in the areas controlled by pro-Turkish groups.
The anti-government forces are also pressing towards the city of Saraqib, an important road junction, which was also seized by the Syrian Army in early February, Anadolu reported. According to the outlet, intense clashes continued after the militants entered Al-Nayrab, destroying a Syrian tank and an APC, as well as capturing another tank.


The militants have been heavily supported by Turkish army artillery, the Russian defense ministry said. To avoid further breaches of the Syrian defense lines, Moscow launched airstrikes against the “terrorists.” Earlier, reports and videos on social media also suggested that the militants in Idlib were aided by military hardware supplied by Ankara.

#BREAKING: #Turkey backed Islamist militias are in heavy fight with #Syria Arab Army in Al-#Nayrab/ #Neirab in #Idlib's countryside. #Turkish backed militias are equipped with these M113 armoured carriers and M60T main battle tanks which can be seen in this video 1 hour ago. pic.twitter.com/eGRVF14SlA
— Babak Taghvaee (Backup) (@BabakTaghvaee1) February 20, 2020

The latter had recently sent army units across the border, reinforcing its outposts in Idlib Province, which is adjacent to the Aleppo region. Turkish officials openly threatened to start a military operation in support of their proxies if the Syrian army continued advancing towards Idlib, the last-remaining major large stronghold controlled by anti-Damascus groups.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 21:35

And Gen. Smirnoff comes to the aid of Gen. Vodkov:
Russian Air Force strikes repel militant attack on Syrian government army in Idlib – Defense Ministry
20 Feb, 2020 14:18 / Updated 23 minutes ago

The Russian Air Force launched strikes to repel a militant offensive against the Syrian Army in Idlib, which had sought to breach the government forces’ defensive lines, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The militants, supported by Turkey, had shelled the Syrian Army’s positions in the region. However, the Turkish forces stopped the artillery barrage after Moscow contacted Ankara, the ministry added.

The militants had launched a “massive offensive” southeast of the city of Idlib, using many armored vehicles, the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria said on Thursday, adding that it was Turkish artillery that helped them breach the Syrian Army’s defenses in some areas.

Aerial footage published by the Russian Defense Ministry shows a Turkish self-propelled howitzer battery shelling the Syrian Army positions.
Turkish battery of self-propelled gun units (SPGs) targets fire support groups during militant offensive in Idlib © Russian Defense Ministry

At the request of Damascus, Russian Su-24 strike aircraft hit the advancing armed groups, helping Syrian forces to repel the offensive, destroying a tank and six infantry-fighting vehicles, among other hardware.

The reconciliation center also said that the Turkish shelling left four Syrian soldiers injured. Moscow also once again called on Ankara to cease its support for terrorists in Idlib, and stop handing over weapons to them.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said that two Turkish soldiers were killed and five others injured in the air strikes.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 20 Feb 2020 22:23

So we will see Su30 vs F16?

Or S400 dowing a Su34?

Anyone wants to bet the timeline when the F35 will be released to turkey?

Russia and Turkey seems to be taking turns at shooting each others cannon fodders.yet there is no shortage of cannon fodders coming to the fight.

Weird region.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 22:55

Jehadists "retreat" from Nayrab
Idlib Jihadist sources claim they retreated from Nayrab. Which means attack completely failed....
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
· 2h
#BREAKING: Turkish Ministry of Defence confirms 2 Turkish soldiers killed and 5 wounded after airstrike hit their position in Idlib..

Today's events

- Turkey supplies HTS (Al-Qaeda) with armour & weapons
- Turkish army stationed in Idlib shells Syrian Army in Nayrab prior to HTS ground assault
- Syrian Army, Syrian air force, Russian air force respond to attacks
- Both Turkish army & Al-Qaeda suffer casualties

So RuAF IS hitting Turkish invasion force. Now comes the Kargil Question: Will TuAF intervene, or sit protecting their u nowhat?

I think Erdogan is getting desperate enough to **ORDER** TuAF to intervene, which makes it v interesting. Turkey may hit Hyenenim runways... but Bear can hit with Backfires from mainland Rodina. Finis for TuAF. So I wonder.
If our reading of Putincraft is correct, this could end Erdogan's adventures in Syria **AND** Libya in one package deal.

Turkey’s guarantees in Libya are dependent on a truce between warring sides being upheld, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. He added that Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar “was violating” the ceasefire, Reuters reports.
Cavusoglu told state broadcaster TRT Haber that the “international system” had failed to stop clashes in Libya and that there was no determination. He said a political process in Libya could not move forward while Haftar’s attacks continue.
Ankara backs Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and has signed a military cooperation agreement to help it repel an offensive by Haftar’s forces in the country’s east.
World powers agreed at a summit last month to halt hostilities in Libya while a political process is underway.


IOW, Turkey is making the excuses for a swift exit... IF they can exit.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 23:06

Scott Ritter is now fully on the Russian side:

Turkish-backed militant attack in Idlib was doomed to fail – why launch it?
Scott Ritter

Fighters from the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham terrorist group, backed by Turkish forces, carried out an attack against the Syrian Army that was doomed from the start. The main question now is, why?

News reports out of Syria’s Idlib Province indicated that a joint operation involving the Turkish Army and fighters from the Salafist jihadist militant group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been initiated against positions of the Syrian Army in and around the village of Nayrab, which had fallen to Damascus’ forces in the past days.

HTS units, backed by Turkish artillery, were able to overrun several Syrian Army positions, capturing a number of armored vehicles, before being driven back by airstrikes delivered by the Russian Air Force. The Turkish media has reported that at least two Turkish soldiers were killed in the fighting, and several more wounded, though the Turks say they were hit by Syrian, not Russian warplanes.

There has been collaboration between the Turkish military and HTS on the battlefield before, with Turkish artillery firing in support of limited counterattacks conducted by HTS units equipped with Turkish armored vehicles and weaponry. As in the case with the Nayrab battle, these attacks enjoyed brief success, before being beaten back.

What differentiates the previous failed counterattacks from the Nayrab operation is the presence of Turkish troops fighting alongside the HTS fighters, and the recent statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to launch a major offensive designed to throw the Syrian Army back to positions held at the time of the September 2018 Sochi agreement. At first blush, the Nayrab battle appears to represent the manifestation of Erdogan’s threat, the initial battle of a larger campaign designed to punish the Syrian Army and its Russian allies.

There is one problem in such a scenario – the Russian Air Force. Russia has made it clear that it will not permit Turkey to launch air operations in Idlib. Moreover, the fact that the Russian Air Force was employed immediately to attack and defeat the Turkish/HTS offensive shows that Moscow has not ceded its control of Syrian air space. So long as Russian aircraft are operating in Idlib, no offensive action against the Syrian Army stands a chance of succeeding.
The Turkish military is fully aware of this reality, which begs the question: why launch an attack that was doomed to fail? One of the main unanswered questions for Turkey was how the Russian Air Force would respond to any attack involving Turkish troops and equipment. That question has now been answered. In carrying out the Nayrab attack, Turkey has escalated the situation almost to the level of direct Turkish-Russian combat. In the immediate aftermath of the Russian airstrikes against Turkish/HTS forces, the Turkish government issued a request to the US for Patriot anti-air missiles to help defend Idlib air space from the Russian Air Force. It is highly unlikely that such a request would be granted.

More probable is that, by engaging in such an escalation, Turkey might be gambling on Russia seeking to de-escalate to avoid any long-term damage to Turkish-Russian relations. One objective may be to obtain a new ceasefire agreement which could involve joint Turkish-Russian military patrols, similar to those underway in the Turkish-occupied Kurdish territory in northeastern Syria.

While Russia may yet accede to a ceasefire, it would not do so unless Turkey were to provide guarantees that the HTS fighters in Idlib were disarmed and removed. Void of that, Russia has made it clear it will continue to support the Syrian Army in its efforts to restore control over the totality of Syrian sovereign territory. Unless Turkey is willing to risk full-scale war with Russia over Idlib, it appears Erdogan’s bluff has been called, yet again.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby ldev » 20 Feb 2020 23:16

And just like that after a year or two of getting cozy, Russia and Turkey are at the brink again over Syria.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 20 Feb 2020 23:36

Unconfirmed.. but Leith Fadel twitter feed is usually good.
This is confirmed. The casualties were General Yuri Komarov, Captain Ivan Drago, and Major-General Nikolai Volkoff
Quote Tweet
DreamMachine
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· 20h
3 Russian generals, including the grandson of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, have been killed by the Turkish attacks against the Russian base at Latakia, Syria

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 21 Feb 2020 04:01

Had not seen this site before..
https://theunionjournal.com/turkey-is-s ... t-monitor/

Turkey is starting to pay the price for undermining Syria’s sovereignty – Middle East Monitor
By
Miriam Jackson -
February 11, 2020

With the continuous, fundamental framework of the nine-year dispute in Syria as being one in between the “Assad regime” as well as “rebels” combined with watching it from a reasonable altruistic viewpoint, it is simple to neglect that most importantly, under worldwide regulation, Syria is a nation-state. One whose territorial honesty has actually been broken by numerous armed teams backed by international states, principal amongst them is neighbor as well as NATO-member Turkey which has actually repetitively gotten into as well as inhabited components ofSyria Its long term existence in the nation is taken into consideration prohibited by the Syrian federal government as well as its modern disturbance in Syrian events can be mapped a minimum of 2 years prior to the 2011 uprisings.

It has actually emerged that Damascus, with Russian– as well as to a lesser-extent Iranian– assistance is swiftly redeeming Syrian- state area with an unfavorable human expense of its very own noncombatant people however additionally in regards to getting rid of takfiri-jihadist boxers that create the mass of the armed “opposition” as well as that have actually been keeping much of Idlib as well as components of Aleppo districts. Most lately, the Turkish military has actually additionally continuously gotten on the getting end of what it calls “aggression” by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), which is the military of the state. With 8 soldiers eliminated recently, as well as 5 supposedly eliminated due to weapons shelling the other day, stress have greater than rose in between Ankara, Damascus as well as Moscow.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (#HTS) flag on Turkish military APC in #Idlib.
Remember that HTS is the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda
The battle in Idlib is a [#Turkey + #TFSA + Al-Qaeda] VS Syrian Army #SAA + #Russia pic.twitter.com/O3duBDRWwA

— Endi Zentarmi (@EndiZentarmi) February 10, 2020

When analysing the dispute, it is crucial to keep in mind that the Syrian Arab Republic is a sovereign state identified by the UN after signing up with the organisation considering that its development back in 24 October 1945 not also lengthy prior to its self-reliance fromFrance It was additionally component of a temporary union with Egypt (the United Arab Republic) in between 1958 as well as 1961 prior to resuming its condition as an independent state.

VIEWPOINT: Syria, where chemical tools guard dogs end up being weaponised

The existing Constitution taken on in 2012 defines the Syrian state as autonomous, Arab as well as with“full sovereignty, indivisible, and may not waive any part of its territory” The degree of its freedom is appropriately challenged as well as the nation is categorized as “not free” according to the US-based NGO, FreedomHouse However, sovereignty is not based on freedom neither any kind of various other system of federal government for that issue.

Understood within this context, Syria is far more than the “Assad regime” or “pro-Assad forces”, instead it is the Syrian state as well as the Syrian military (with an approximated 142,000 energetic workers according to Global Fire Power), specifically. It is the SAA which is charged with safeguarding the state versus safety and security risks. Faced with Al-Qaeda associates such as Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham or various other terrorist clothing like Ahrar Al-Sham at one factor inhabiting whole districts, no state with the implies of safeguarding itself would certainly endure this, as well as neither need to Syria be anticipatedto There are no “moderate rebels”, a minimum of a lot of them are definitely not “moderate” as well as a multitude are not also Syrian.

Furthermore, the term “regime” conjures up unfavorable undertones as well as is frequently used uniquely as well as not globally versus nominally-democratic or tyrannical states by numerous media electrical outlets. The Syrian federal government’s severe suppression on pro-democracy demos did itself no favours however Turkey’s participation as well as disturbance in Syrian events as well as efforts at reducing the federal government of President Bashar Al-Assad happened really at an early stage throughout the uprisings as well as military defections.

Amnesty International individual. “Assad’s regime” is the lawful federal government of Syria, equipped to protect Syria’s sovereignty & & territorial honesty, as defined in several UNSC resolutions. Turkish soldiers are a prohibited getting into pressure in Syria, as well as for this reason reputable army targets. https://t.co/E1eaq8Z6LW

— George Szamuely (@GeorgeSzamuely) February 10, 2020

READ: Turkey, Russia delegations satisfy for 2nd round of Idlib talks

Ankara’s resolution in stopping Syria from redeeming Idlib city as well as offering assistance to teams acting versus Damascus is a clear infraction of Syria’ssovereignty Added to this, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lately advised Syria to take out from its very own area, past the demilitarised area as bargained throughout the Astana talks amongst Turkey, Russia as well asIran These cautions were unnoticed as well as the SAA proceeds to border Turkish army stations– 5 of the “official” 12 stations as well as an additional 5 of the informal stations. The SAA will likely look for to combine control over the tactical M4 as well as M5 freeways which will certainly not just rob hostility pressures of supply courses, however additionally re-connect government-held cities prior to surrounding Idlib city itself.

‘Moderate’ Idlib Terrorists Continue Losing Ground Despite Turkish Support (Map Update) https://t.co/fyIGjfiwQL pic.twitter.com/GnPD2USDW9
— Karl E (@therussophile) February 10, 2020


This is not to claim that Turkey does not have reputable safety and security problems of its very own such as the proceeded increase of evacuees creating enormous stress by itself culture as well as economic situation however additionally the risks postured by the terrorist PKK organisation, which has associates in Syria in the type of the Kurdish- led Syrian Democratic Forces (previously YPG). Indeed the Adana Agreement of 1998 was developed exactly due to the Syrian federal government’s assistance of the PKK as well as especially made it possible for Turkey to seek PKK terrorists up to 5 kilometres deep right into Syrian area. In any kind of instance, Turkey has actually surpassed the limitations of the deal. The Turkish held north-east as well as supposed “safe zone” are meant to be temporal also.

What is clear nonetheless, is that the SAA no more will certainly endure Turkish line of work, neither Turkish tries at stopping them from regaining state area held by terrorist intrigues. Claims made by Ankara that they have actually struck back versus the slaughtered soldiers recently, (supposedly battle 54 targets, eliminating 76 Syrian soldiers) were rejected by both the Syrians as well as the Russians The asserts, which are plainly face-saving as well as for residential intake bear little truth on the ground, partially due to the fact that it will certainly leave Turkish stations in a severe circumstance, however will certainly run the risk of straight battle with Russian pressures, which will certainly not remain in Turkey’s rate of interests, specifically as it is eager to acquisition Russian projectile support systems despite fellow NATO participant, the United States. As of existing, there are unofficial records from Turkey that its pressures have actually struck 115 Syrian federal government targets,“destroying 101 of them” Again extremely not likely, unless Turkey desires to launch a full-blown battle with Syria as well as by expansion Russia.

In any kind of remote town in Syria at any moment, if a covering goes of or anything war-related it’s normally on the net either in a record or video clip within minutes/hours optimum, for 115 government/SAA targets to be struck without any person understanding aside from the Turkish MOD Is difficult. https://t.co/US8Uh6X1NL
— Danny Makki (@Dannymakkisyria) February 10, 2020


Sending in even more army convoys, jihadist supports as well as developing brand-new monitoring stations will certainly do little to prevent the upcoming loss of Idlib, or instead the rightful return of Idlib to the Syrian state. Another inhabiting pressure, the United States, will ultimately have to take out from the eastern oilfields as well as the Al-Tanf base which is for Israel’s advantage greater than combating Daesh, specifically as it ends up being progressively illogical after it is compelled to take out from neighbouring Iraq For currently however, Turkey continues to be the major challenge in state-level safety and security for Syria.

Turkey has actually come a lengthy method from its diplomacy of “zero problems with neighbours” strategy which had actually offered it so well in the very early years of the AK Party’s increase to power. Rather than boost connections with its eastern neighbors, they show up to be weakening sometimes. Military treatment in Libya as well as sending off Syrian hirelings there to battle is additionally developing breaks with neighbors. For currently however, Turkey is starting to pay the price of undermining Syrian sovereignty A price which has actually come with an also greater expense for Syrians.

Iran assistant: United States existence in Iraq, Syria is over
The sights revealed in this write-up belong to the writer as well as do not always mirror the content plan of Middle East Monitor.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 21 Feb 2020 13:50

UlanBatori wrote:Unconfirmed.. but Leith Fadel twitter feed is usually good.
This is confirmed. The casualties were General Yuri Komarov, Captain Ivan Drago, and Major-General Nikolai Volkoff
Quote Tweet
DreamMachine
@DreamMa59706694
· 20h
3 Russian generals, including the grandson of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, have been killed by the Turkish attacks against the Russian base at Latakia, Syria


If that’s true, the new Russo-Turk war has begun, and WW3 may not be far behind...

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Aditya_V » 21 Feb 2020 15:29

Nobody, including Pakis are suicidal, this is misinformation on twitter. And I dont think the Laktakia base with high value Russian Generals can be taken out soo easily by Turkey.

Looks like Turkish H&D in tatters after the Syrians have killed their TFTA troops - they are so like Pakis.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 08:21

Ominous lack of neuj from the front.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby shaun » 22 Feb 2020 08:25

Turkey and Russia vowed to abide by the Sochi agreement is the latest news.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 09:19

^ Good. Trouble is that they see different things in it. Turkey sees "SAA out of Idlib, Turkish observation posts facilitate AlQaeda to control Idlib.". Putin sees air raids on Al Qaeda. Assad sees: take back Idlib.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 22 Feb 2020 14:15

UlanBatori wrote:Unconfirmed.. but Leith Fadel twitter feed is usually good.
This is confirmed. The casualties were General Yuri Komarov, Captain Ivan Drago, and Major-General Nikolai Volkoff
Quote Tweet
DreamMachine
@DreamMa59706694
· 20h
3 Russian generals, including the grandson of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, have been killed by the Turkish attacks against the Russian base at Latakia, Syria

No, no not him. Never, it cannot be!

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Aditya_V » 22 Feb 2020 16:20

Forget that Turkey hitting Latakia base as it is some hut? It is just H&D cover up for Twitter warriors.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 18:24

Volkoff must be the nephew of Gen. Vodkov, who fell into the Volga after a few shots of COVID-nirodhini.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Feb 2020 20:00

Apparently per Al Masdar News, SAA is not going to enter Idlib City soon.
Meanwhile... from our friendly Houthis... Generous KSA resumes vehicle donations to Houthistan

Ansarallah Forces launched a large-scale multi-pronged attack backed by intense missile and artillery shelling that lasted for hours, during which they seized control of several areas near the Saudi border.
The Ansarallah forces reportedly besieged the Yemeni pro-government troops, in addition to killing the chief-of-staff of the Al-Jawf axis, Brigadier Sadiq Amin al-Okimi, the son of the governor of Al-Jawf, and wounding 3 other leaders.
In response, the Saudi Coalition carried out several airstrikes over the Al-Jawf Governorate, targeting a number of sites near the border.
According to the source, the Ansarallah forces are seeking to advance towards Salamat in preparation for controlling the center of Al-Ghail district, amid fierce resistance from the Yemeni army, which has brought reinforcements to the province from its forces stationed in the neighboring Sa’ada.
The Ansarallah forces have managed to score several advances in northern Yemen over the past two months, which includes the complete seizure of the Nihm District in the eastern countryside of the Sana’a Governorate.
In turn, the Saudi-led Coalition has resumed their large-scale aerial campaign over northern Yemen, with new attacks reported in Al-Jawf, Sa’ada, and Sana’a.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 07:58


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 22:08

Al Masdar News:
Liberation effort in southeastern Idlib: M4 motorway
According to preliminary reports from the front, the Syrian Arab Army stormed the jihadist rebel positions at the large hilltop of Tal Al-Nar near the town of Kafr Sijnah in southeastern Idlib.
The reports said the Syrian Army units are currently backed by heavy artillery and Russian airstrikes, which are raining down on the defenses in the southeastern part of the Idlib Governorate.
Thus far, no gains have been reported by the Syrian Arab Army.
It appears this new military operation is targeting the southeastern slope of the Al-Zawiya Mountain, which is the Syrian Army’s attempt to take control over the Idlib part of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4).

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gerard » 23 Feb 2020 22:31

This is confirmed. The casualties were General Yuri Komarov, Captain Ivan Drago, and Major-General Nikolai Volkoff


Satire? Yuri Komarov is a character from the Die Hard movies. Ivan Drago is from Rocky IV. Nikolai Volkoff is the stage name of a WWF professional 'wrestler'.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 23 Feb 2020 23:04

^Looks that way. Lots of ppl sneering at Erdogan's claims. Apparently a ship blew up in Tripoli port, killing a Turkish Colonel and a few others: buried without any fanfare. The Nayrab attack appears to have gone badly; I think Turkish losses there are being understated by both sides - like after Surgical strike on Pakis.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gerard » 24 Feb 2020 07:24

They seem to have as big a H+D problem as the Pakis.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Feb 2020 08:19

Turkey has become Pakistan West, and their military is living down to the same. Desperate pleas for US Patriot mijiles...
I think Vodkov and Assad should push for a swift encirclement of the Turkish force inside Idlib, and force a surrender, Niazi-style. Send them back debriefed with the video cameras running. Smirnoff has already made clear the consequences of a determined air attack from RuAF using drones and manned aircraft. Word todin about a Turkish Convoy being "stopped" by RuAF combat aircraft. I assume they didn't stand in the way and block. Wonder what happened.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gyan » 24 Feb 2020 09:38

Turkey Cannot win. If Syria & Russia feel any pain then they will simply arm Kurd friends of Turkey & send them on business visits to Istanbul & Ankara. I think Russia will lie low to avoid Trump getting a chance to do an election bombing run on Russia & SAA resources. Turkey will get its deserts in 2021.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Feb 2020 20:02

^MUCH better for Russia to finish the job before Primary Season is over. War risk spikes after Conventions, into October. Also, summer is approaching, not good for Balaclava Boyz. Right now they are in their element.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 25 Feb 2020 03:28

Gerard wrote:They seem to have as big a H+D problem as the Pakis.


Massive superiority complex, all driven by NATO kit and European tech support. Paks just believe in hot air, however Turks seems to be quite over confident at their NATO status and growth of their MIC. Based on the online behavior, they don't seem to like hiding causalities, unlike Paks, but consider a big H&D hit, when causalities happen.

Watched their kit up close in an expo, very TFTA. Nice support by the euro in building their kit..

Despite their major growth in MIC, I found it very funny that they did not have long range SAM! They were begging for Patriot and then S400. They still fiddle around with Hawk SAM. Even Paks have better SAM!

Some were even confident of getting hold of...hold my tea.. Barak 8! I wonder if we have a say about this..

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby nam » 25 Feb 2020 03:33

Another thing, I am pretty sure, Turks consider Paks beneath them... just that they don't show it openly. They seem to be subtle version of Saudi behavior towards Paks..


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