Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sooraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 01:16

'NYPD GIVES COPS THOUSANDS OF FACE MASKS IN PREPARATION FOR CORONAVIRUS' -NY POST

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 01:18

Hearts heavy after learning of coronavirus cases in Pakistan: Chinese Embassy

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby BSR Murthy » 27 Feb 2020 01:38

sudeepj wrote:
BSR Murthy wrote:
Not really. There was person to person transmission in MERS.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/ab ... ssion.html


A few cases may have happened, the point was that MERS transmission from human to human was pretty hard. Note the qualifiers in that CDC report.. '..few, reported cases..'. SARS 2.0 is a completely different ballgame when it comes to how contagious it is.


No dispute about the contagiousness. I agree with you about lower person to person spread with MERS, but, it was not inconsequential. Perhaps there were such cases in the middle east too, but, S. Korea is an isolated pure case study of P2P transmission where 186 were infected from one imported case and 38 have died over a 2 month period. In any event, this does not negate my hypothesis that Indians are relatively less affected by Corona viridae.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 01:41

Here there is DEFINITELY propagation through air w/o human-human contact. First characteristic of a "weaponized" Bio WMD. Next is that it dies off in a month or so by evolution/mutation. Both true here.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 02:05

UB, Things will settle down once Trump addresses the news conference after Markets close with CDC in tow.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 02:10

sooraj wrote:First suspected Coronavirus case in Pakistan. The victim is Abida from Tehsil Suhawa, Jhelum. She has been admitted in DHQ Jhelum. She returned from Iran a few days ago.


Thanks please always give the extra information that media leaves out.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 27 Feb 2020 02:12

"And a very big thank you to the
@IAF_MCC
, which, as ever, lives up to its motto - नभः स्पृशं दीप्तम् - Touch the Sky with Glory!
@DrSJaishankar
@MEAIndia"

God bless the IAF.
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 02:14

tandav wrote:shows the dominance of the Chinese manufacturing machine... and how woefully underprepared the entire manufacturing system in India is... this will be the case across the globe ... the perils of outsourcing all critical components to a single vendor is being revealed by Corona Virus.

This is the most important takeaway from this outbreak.

Folks COVID-19 is highly contagious but not lethal.
And as the data shows in areas already afflicted its receding.
Simple precautions of washing hands, not touching face and good cough postures are helpful.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 04:10

So we are about to see whether a sudden absence of chinese production machine hurts or helps other economies, hain? Brings down oil prices, that's for sure. Hurts tourism big-time. But also brings down prices of raw materials/commodities, esp some strategic ones such as Lithium. Hurts Amazon (Supreme HQ has announced total Embargo on Amazon purchases saying they all come from cheen). Maybe helps FlipKart. Drowning solar-panel manufacturers in Yoo Ess may get a respite. Auto companies will hurt. Apple will hurt. Google probably (their gizmos I mean). Demand for capital will go down, meaning interest rates down. Lot of jobs lost/laid off in sales/transport as airlines cancel flights and container ships stand idle. Global Warming down significantly.
Wall street ended down 123 todin versus 870 yesterdin and 1200 day before. I think (hope!) the red ink flow is clotting up.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 04:14


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 04:37

sudeepj wrote:
Amber G. wrote:

The issue is US CDC is not testing people who are not exposed to Wuhan or some other known epicenter. Even if you have pneumonia, dont test +ive for any known pathogen, .. you are not getting 'the test' for Cov. The initial batch of test kits prepared by the CDC were also faulty and unusable. I am hoping not, but the US CDC may be caught with its pants down like other agencies were during, say, Hurricane Katrina.

If they *were* testing, I dont know how there can be cases in Brazil/Italy/Iran/France.. but none in the US! Its possible.. I just feel (just a feeling.. nothing more) its unlikely to be the case.


I was extremely angry (and disgusted) with Trump with his anti-science policies specially regarding CDC and his policy towards monitoring such outbreak. Trump, against the advice of every reasonable scientist, shut down federal programs (established decades ago) - focal points to coordinate such responses and -- Predicting, investigating, and providing surveillance of infectious diseases and viruses etc.. cut down CDC budget tremendously ..etc..

I was pleasantly surprised by his response about the COVID-19 in New Delhi - perhaps Modi and Indian Scientists wisdom had some effect. (Last ebola outbreak trumps tweets were, unscientific, xenophobic he did not even want our own ebola patients (who all BTW recovered later) to be flown back to US. (He was quite critical CDC etc then)

Scientists and administration here in US, from what I know are doing what they can but they are quite discouraged by lack of support from fed govt. - They need more resources/money etc and for a rich country like US this should not be a problem.

(I request people, not to go OT by "debating needlessly" Trump or his policy here , those who want to know more or fact check please do that by further reading - views expressed above are just mine )

POTUS has a press conf pretty soon BTW..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 06:02

^^^ Press conference (By POTUS) is going on.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vamsee » 27 Feb 2020 06:20

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
25m
BREAKING: California reports 1 new case of coronavirus in someone with no recent travel, no known links to previous cases - WaPo

================

Lot of desi's in bay area :(
stay safe guys. Keep shelf stable food and be prepared to stay indoors for a couple of weeks.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 27 Feb 2020 06:30


amdavadi
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby amdavadi » 27 Feb 2020 07:11

Where in Bay Area? They had one or two in santa Clara county? Week or two ago?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 07:26

amdavadi wrote:Where in Bay Area? They had one or two in santa Clara county? Week or two ago?

5 in the Bay area - (See my earlier post(s).. 2 young techies, A couple (one travelled to China, spouse got it), and one other..

The new one, from what I know, is related to Diamond Princess Cruise ..the county/present location is not public information right now.

Lot of Desis there... lot of them travel to China too.

I remember in one of Pan IIT meeting - I was told that about 10,000+ are there from IIT's alone..
*many* (including people from my family) travel to China regularly as quite a few items are manufactured there (from iPhones, to Xbox and Apple, MS, Facebook, all have many people routinely travel - even some to Wuhan)..

(My son's whole team was in China in the second week of January (not Wuhan) - My son listened to me - some family reason and worked remotely. It was nice that he did not go. When they came back they stayed home on their own when the company asked them to -- I think it was close to end/3rd week of January when people started taking it much more seriously)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 07:41

Let me post some of DT's old tweets, for perspective -- at the time of Ebola - (BTW the "patients" below were US citizens, US healthcare workers working in Africa - all of them were successfully treated in US - if they were not allowed in US all would have died):



@realDonaldTrump
Ebola patient will be brought to the U.S. in a few days - now I know for sure that our leaders are incompetent. KEEP THEM OUT OF HERE!

714
9:04 PM - Jul 31, 2014

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
The U.S. cannot allow EBOLA infected people back. People that go to far away places to help out are great-but must suffer the consequences!

2,821
8:22 PM - Aug 1, 2014

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
Aug 8, 2014
Same CDC which is bringing Ebola to US misplaced samples of anthrax earlier this year http://cnn.com/2014/07/15/health/cdc-an ... ploc-bags/ Be careful.

<video where he calls Obama dumb etc
Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
Ebola is much easier to transmit than the CDC and government representatives are admitting. Spreading all over Africa-and fast. Stop flights


This Ebola patient Thomas Duncan, who fraudulently entered the U.S. by signing false papers, is causing havoc. If he lives, prosecute!


... Compare that to present India's action in evacuating it's citizens .. I am also glad that US is acting better now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 27 Feb 2020 07:48

There is no point in rehashing DTs behavior. He is the collective karma of American society and there is no escaping it. In the final calculation, it probably wont matter much who was 'in charge'.. Lets keep track of the virus, counter measures and what 'we' can do as individuals to protect ourselves and our families.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 08:35

Meanwhile, FWIW: some statistics..
The mortality rate is 0.2% for people aged <40,
but it really starts to jump up for age 70+.

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 08:50

Some comments about Flu vs Covid19:

Today Trump talked about Flu. BRF has also some posts about Flu - statistics showing how Flu kills many more people every year compared to COVID 19. Like a few have pointed out here:

COVID is *much* more serious (order of magnitude) than Flu.


Apart from we have vaccines, and medicines to fight Flu, which we understand a little better than this Corona virus at present -- The vaccine for covid19 may be many months/year far away and we know much less than this virus.

The main point is: This can spread as easily as Flu - so total number of infected people could be similar to people who have Flu. Then the serious cases, and death could be 20x or more. This may mean instead of 20-50 thousands per year in US we may have 4 million (or more) per year.

(Apart from many other fears - most of Flu cases are mild, we don't know how "mild" case of covid will be etc,, the statistics for people who get admitted in Hospital or older people looks much worse for covid19 than flu)

This is the difference. This is why people are taking it very seriously.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 08:56

0.7% of Wuhan residents caught the virus - or some virus - in the last 3 months. 0.02% died.
See this article from this time last year
Feb 21, 2019 08:02 PM
SOCIETY & CULTURE
Why Aren’t People in China Dying of the Flu?
By Teng Jing Xuan

Even though China has the world’s largest population and saw 600,000 reported flu cases last month, the number of flu deaths recorded in the country is a minuscule fraction of the estimated 11,600 to 19,100 flu deaths that struck the U.S. between Oct. 1 and Feb. 9.


IOW, 0.006% died in the US in 2019. So COVID-2020 in Wuhan is 3 times as bad as flu was in the US in 2019.
COVID-2019 in CHINA has killed 0.00002%. US flu 2019 was 30 times(?) worse than COVID-2019 China??? My math has gone bonkers?
Not the end of the world, since we hear that most of the dead were old ppl anyway. Now that the CDC has come out with its definitive advice on how to deal with COVID-2020, I can go to sleep in peace, knowing I have done all I can. All that remains is the CDC advice:
PUHBUKAKUAG
{yawn}
Last edited by UlanBatori on 27 Feb 2020 09:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 09:01

AmberG Thanks for the statistics. Pukka right?

Flu mortality is 0.1%.
CoVid-19 @ 0.2% is double already. Except more fatal for over 70+

BTW a prof from Tufts n NPR was saying babies in China were recovering quite well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Feb 2020 09:03

Is COVID-19 an economic disruptor mainly?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 09:06

^^ramana statistics: That just means that Americans are less healthy than the Chinese. Many more catch the flu. Believe me it was bad too, Jan. 2019. I just didn't get into the 0.1%. Simple statistics: COVID-2019 China, 1,400 million people, 2700 dead. Flu-2019 USA: 300 million people, 19,000 dead.
Much ado about nothing. Everyone has gotta go sometime.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:11

Saudi Arabia temporarily bans religious visits to the kingdom amid coronavirus fears

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:13

Elizabeth Warren
@ewarren
·
14m
Tomorrow, I’m introducing a plan that takes every dime Donald Trump is spending on his wall, and diverting it to fighting the coronavirus. #CNNTownHall

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:15

South Korea reports 334 additional coronavirus cases, raising total to 1,595: KCDC

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:15

In the Northern California coronavirus case, “the individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County."

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:18

Amid coronavirus outbreak Pakistan running out of surgical masks and the cost has been surged by thousand percent, ARY News reported on Thursday.

According to ARY News, there is a shortage of surgical masks in the market. The packet of surgical masks is being sold at Rs1000 in the market as the profiteers have become active to make a good fortune out of opportunity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:20

Gabbard blasts 'senseless partisan bickering' amid coronavirus threat, says 'we've got to stand together'.

"Now is the time where Democrats and Republicans ... we've got to stand together as Americans and put the health and well being of the American people first," she said. "We cannot afford to be penny-wise and pound-foolish -- we've got to come together and say what actions are necessary immediately to prevent what some people are saying is inevitable."

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 09:23

In another week the cv will be history but so will Soup-er-Tuesdin. Cynical

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:27

sooraj wrote:In the Northern California coronavirus case, “the individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County."

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 09:32

ramana wrote:AmberG Thanks for the statistics. Pukka right?

Flu mortality is 0.1%.
CoVid-19 @ 0.2% is double already. Except more fatal for over 70+

BTW a prof from Tufts n NPR was saying babies in China were recovering quite well.


One of good place (IMO) is this https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
(May or may not require subscription) (72,000+ clinical reported cases - study published in JAMA)

This is consistent with virtually *every* reputable statistics I see:

In aam abdul's language: ( Let me put this here in brf for record and quick access )
--
CFR) of 2.3% -- most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.
( Compare this with about 0.1% for Flu) so this is 20x times worse when one does not take age into account)

When it comes to older (and other people which has other issues like diabetes) the situation is *much* worse:
(For people with diabetes Flu is more serious than a healthy person but for COVID-19 this becomes much serious problem compared to flu this may be 50x or 100x )


For example from above article:
- 14.8% in patients 80 and older,
- 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79.
- Among the critically ill (other complications) CFR was 49.0

The R0 factor (After analyzing the diamond prince cruise ship data) - There have been many values published but all are within range of about 2 to 3 . (Anything greater than 1 is quite serious ).

****
.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2020 09:34

Ssatchiji: They'le leading our Conspilacy Theoly!!

Saudi Arabia has imposed a temporary ban on religious pilgrimage, known as Umrah, to historic Islamic shrines in Mecca and Medina over the coronavirus outbreak that has recently spread to the Middle East.
The oil-rich kingdom announced Wednesday that the restrictions were put in place to “provide the utmost protection” to those living in Saudi Arabia as well pilgrims and tourists willing to visit the country.
In a statement, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said that the government would suspend "entry to the kingdom for the purpose of Umrah" as well as for visiting The Prophet's Mosque in Medina, the second holiest site in Islam after the Grand Mosque in Mecca.
Umrah is an Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca that can be undertaken at any time of the year as opposed to Ḥajj that should be attempted by every Muslim at least once a lifetime within a specific time of the year.
In addition to that, Riyadh suspended entry for anyone that has a valid tourist visa but hails from the countries that have been experiencing the COVID-19 outbreak.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 09:48

There is an unconfirmed report that one woman died in Colorado quite a long time ago. Her family was informed the cause was flu, but they now suspect that it may be covid-19. (will update or delete it - as said this is a unconfirmed report)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:52

Norway detects its first case of coronavirus

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 27 Feb 2020 09:53

Trump’s HHS
@SecAzar
- a former PHARMA EXEC - won’t promise a coronavirus vaccine will be affordable for anyone who needs it:

"We want to ensure we work to make it affordable, but we can't control price, because we need the private sector to invest."

https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1232792334632464385

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 27 Feb 2020 10:04

Aylward said that across China, about 80% of cases are mild, about 14% are severe, and about 6% become critically ill. The case fatality rate — the percentage of known infected people who die — is between 2% and 4% in Hubei province, and 0.7% in other parts of China, he said

A case fatality rate of between 2% to 4% rivals and even exceeds that of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed upwards of 50 million people. Even a case fatality rate of 0.7% — which means 7 out of every 1,000 infected people would die — is sobering. It is seven times the fatality rate for seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 27 Feb 2020 10:14

Death rate has to be calculated as Fatality/Recovered and not Fatality/Infected as Infection is still spreading. On the basis of former ratio, the death rate seems 10%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2020 10:34

Gyan wrote:Death rate has to be calculated as Fatality/Recovered and not Fatality/Infected as Infection is still spreading. On the basis of former ratio, the death rate seems 10%.

These rates have been calculated (or estimated) by using standard statistical tools. You are right that *accurate* rate can be done much later (when you have good data on *all* infected and total # of deaths after sufficient time has elapsed).
Fatality/recovered data can be used if one use a model where one knows or estimates the total "duration" (amount of time where a patient either dies or gets cured)..etc..
etc..
Anyway the CFR is "estimated" to be around 2.3. .. for more one can see any reputable reference. It is just a number.
(Fatality/recovered number obviously as you say can be calculated much more precisely - this number is improving so this is encouraging)
Hope this helps.


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