Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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tandav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 29 Feb 2020 12:00

Manas wrote:Amber G or Others

Any models on the spread of infection in the tropical countries (with warmer weather already) that have reported a few cases going back 4-5 weeks ago for ex. Thailand, Singapore, India etc. Seems like the spread has largely been contained and limited to a few cases unlike China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran where the weather is probably still wintry/on the colder side resulting in the virus transmitting easier.

Would be interesting to study those trends - will tell us if the Northern Hemisphere will be in good shape in the next 2-3 months as the worries shift to the southern hemisphere.


Yes! Can India take any comfort in assuming that we will be spared the worst effects due to having a warmer climate... I assume that perhaps at higher temperatures viability of the virus outside human body will be lower (reducing the transmission factor by a lot)? Singapore has a few cases but not in lock down mode yet. Monsoons will come in June or July (this will again cause a spike, due to lower temperatures). Any precautions to be taken.

As of now it appears that most of countries where the spread is fast are colder climate countries. Tehran is at 3C, so is Wuhan, Ditto South Korea and most of Japan. One option is to put all these patients into a cruise ship and park it at a high humidity, high temperature tropical zone, which will help in faster recovery and is an automatic quarantine system

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Feb 2020 12:16

Human for temperature is 37C. Warmer temperatures may inhibit transmission not likely recovery.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 12:42

SOUTH KOREA reports 594 new coronavirus cases raising the total to 2937

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 12:42

Coronavirus outbreak: Indian Embassy in Iran to facilitate return of citizens

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 12:45

US postpones ASEAN regional summit due to coronavirus:
"As the international community works together to defeat the novel coronavirus, the United States, in consultation with ASEAN partners, has made the difficult decision to postpone the ASEAN leaders meeting.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 12:46

Coronavirus: We need more nurses and quarantine officers at Canadian airports, border workers' union says

Customs and immigration officers — the first line of defence against the spread of coronavirus by ill travellers — say more Health Canada nurses are required at Canada’s major airports.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 29 Feb 2020 12:50

Transmission in hotter weather inhibited as influenza (flu) virus (which is also a Corona virus) as the virus outer coating melts faster. Transmission mode mechanism: In Cold weather the outer butter like coating becomes a hard shell at <10C acting like a spore. The hard shell of virus melts after it enters the human body 37C and is activated for transmission. Having outside the body high temperature causes premature melting of shell and virus is rendered unviable having but no host to infect. This I believe will result in India getting less affected. We are almost into our hot season now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 13:15

Kerala: Man admitted to isolation ward on returning from Malaysia dies

The 36-year-old man died before the result of his second sample arrived


A man admitted to the Government Medical College Hospital at Kalamassery in Kerala’s Ernakulam district with symptoms of novel coronavirus died on Saturday a day after he tested negative for it.


Jainesh, 36, who had been working in Malaysia for two-and-a-half years, had landed at the Cochin International Airport on Thursday midnight and was admitted to the isolation ward around 1am on Friday as he was seen coughing and exhausted.


A check revealed the Kannur native had breathlessness and pneumonia. A detailed examination showed that he also suffered from ketoacidosis, a life-threatening problem generally faced by people with diabetes.


His body fluids were tested at the Virology Institute in Alappuzha for H1N1 and COVID-19. However, he succumbed even as the result of the second sample was awaited. He had tested negative for coronavirus infection on Friday.


Emergency meet held

Ernakulam District Collector S. Suhas held an emergency meet at the Medical College on Friday after Jainesh was admitted to the isolation ward. Suhas also visited the isolation ward and took stock of the situation. The collector later said that all precautionary measures have been taken to face any emergency situation.


17 more under observation

Meanwhile, 17 more people have been put under observation in Ernakulam district over fears of coronavirus infection, though eight people have been freed of the precautionary scrutiny. Five samples were sent to the Alappuzha lab on Friday.

Twenty-eight people have been quarantined at home in the district. Awareness classes are still being held in the district as part of the precautionary measures. Special classes were conducted for students at Aluva and for the public at Moothakunnam.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 13:17

#Coronavirus test results of #Odisha man admitted to Burla Vimsar negative; Vimsar authorities confirm that blood & swab samples of the patient have tested negative for #Coronavirus

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 13:18

The Ministry of External Affairs has asked the Badminton Association of India for a health update of Chinese shuttlers ahead of #IndiaOpen

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 13:20

#Coronavirus impact: India pulls out of shooting world cup in #Cyprus

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 14:10

219 new cases of Coronavirus in Korea

There are now a total of 3,150 cases in Korea

Image
Last edited by sooraj on 29 Feb 2020 14:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 14:11

Trump cancels visit of Austrian Chancellor Kurz scheduled for next week as he wants to avoid any contact with heads of government from Europe particularly affected by the coronavirus epidemic. Meanwhile, the confirmed coronavirus cases in Austra rises to 7.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 14:11

Bahrain threatens legal prosecution against travelers who came from Iran and hadn't been tested for the new coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 14:16

Coronavirus Impacting Medical Staff: 124 UC Davis Health Care Workers Put In Self-Quarantine – CBS Sacramento

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 14:22


drprashantmishra
@drprashantmish6
Current available treatment for corona virus is oseltamivir and chloroquine, oseltamivir manufactured by Solara , Laurus , Cipla and chloroquine by Ipca


Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 17:24

Qatar announces its first case of the new #Coronavirus.
Qatar says person infected with coronavirus has recently returned from Iran

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 17:26

593 infected, 43 dead in Iran

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 29 Feb 2020 17:46

Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

Estimated actual infection rates vs reported/catologued cases, China and globally. So if China is reporting 75,000-80,000 people as infected, according to this study, what they are counting are only the severely infected and dead. The actual number of infections in China is likely exponentially more. The same is true to a lesser extent globally. That is what probably accounts for the spread from people who are mildly infected, show no symptoms but are nevertheless contagious
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 29 Feb 2020 18:09

So people with existing conditions like heart & diabetes are more vulnerable?

Healthy bodies seem to create the antibodies required to fight off the virsus. Looks it's behavior is similar to a flu virus, but more contiguous I guess.

Would a flu jab prevent people from the symptoms?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Feb 2020 18:31

[quote="sooraj"]
drprashantmishra
@drprashantmish6
Current available treatment for corona virus is oseltamivir and chloroquine, oseltamivir manufactured by Solara , Laurus , Cipla and chloroquine by Ipca


Oh! In Humanese, that's TamiFlu and quinine, hain? I have a bottle of ZamZam Cola w/quinine. Now to add to the 140-proof Rooh Afza and that should be fine. At least I will FEEL above all this.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Feb 2020 18:36

[quote="ldev"]Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?
Estimated actual infection rates vs reported/catologued cases, China and globally. So if China is reporting 75,000-80,000 people as infected, according to this study, what they are counting are only the severely infected and dead. The actual number of infections in China is likely exponentially more. The same is true to a lesser extent globally. That is what probably accounts for the spread from people who are mildly infected, show no symptoms but are nevertheless contagious [quote="ldev"]
IOW if an 80+ catches pneumonia it is time to go shopping for the Condolence Card and flowers. Not exactly new is it?

Could someone post a similar graphic of Death Rate by Age in a normal February due to HumanAgingVirus (H1A1V1)? My understanding is that ppl above 80 tend to die of old age a lot more frequently than ppl in their 20s. In fact that chart looked pretty-much like the GUESS Normalized Population Death Rate Model used by UBCN.
This is what happens when Deep Sayan-Tea-Fick Analysis overtakes simple (increasingly-un)common sense.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 29 Feb 2020 18:54

UlanBatori wrote:Could someone post a similar graphic of Death Rate by Age in a normal February due to HumanAgingVirus (H1A1V1)? My understanding is that ppl above 80 tend to die of old age a lot more frequently than ppl in their 20s. In fact that chart looked pretty-much like the GUESS Normalized Population Death Rate Model used by UBCN.
This is what happens when Deep Sayan-Tea-Fick Analysis overtakes simple (increasingly-un)common sense.


All true, specially given that the mortality by age/existing conditions was re-gurgitated by the BBC from Chinese data. What is newsworthy is the degree of under-reporting of the actual prevalence of the virus in the general population. My trust in official Chinese data is zero.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Feb 2020 20:11

Read and weep, Beloveds!

Ophishial WHO-cheen Join Mission has returned.Presumably all in quarantine, because they sure got their Final Report out fast: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... report.pdf

They appear to have read the One And Only Re-Lie-able source: UBCN. Because we were citing a careful and thoughtful, unbiased Think Tank

They confirm the Stratcept findings (not they needed confirmation):
1. Very high initial death rate.
2. Present death rate is 3.4%.
3. The actual death rate in Wuhan (which Stratcepts accurately predicted using their 2-week delay model) is 5.7% (Stratcepts says 5.72%)

Most interesting: the WHO-cheen Joint Report includes a figure showing the virus' naam/horoscope. Makes no sense to me, but the Experts etc can have Revelations interpreting it.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 29 Feb 2020 20:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 29 Feb 2020 20:17

ldev wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Could someone post a similar graphic of Death Rate by Age in a normal February due to HumanAgingVirus (H1A1V1)? My understanding is that ppl above 80 tend to die of old age a lot more frequently than ppl in their 20s. In fact that chart looked pretty-much like the GUESS Normalized Population Death Rate Model used by UBCN.
This is what happens when Deep Sayan-Tea-Fick Analysis overtakes simple (increasingly-un)common sense.


All true, specially given that the mortality by age/existing conditions was re-gurgitated by the BBC from Chinese data. What is newsworthy is the degree of under-reporting of the actual prevalence of the virus in the general population. My trust in official Chinese data is zero.

EXactly. I wonder how the number of 60,000+ cases is even taken seriously anymore knowing how easily it spread in Italy, South Korea and Iran WELL AFTER a worldwide alarm had been sounded. The Diamond Princess case showed that physical quarantine is not enough, the ventilation systems have to be separated too, so there would have been plenty of intra-hospital infections with other patients and nurses for atleast 4-5 weeks. There is so little information on PAtient 0 in Wuhan (I think this is deliberate - added later: even the WHO report is silent on pateint 0) but various reports peg it around DEc 1 (per a BBC report quoting a Chinese source) or DEc 12 (see below). Now taking the later date, for a city of the size of Wuhan (10+ million) with no knowledge of the danger of this virus, how easily would it spread.

(This unproof-read article in Nature pegs the start date as 12 Dec. 2019. Authors are from the govt Institue of Virology in Wuhan.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7)

Looking at poster 'sooraj' plot above for south Korea, it went from 100 to 2900 in 1 week, with strict controls in place. Now consider that the virus was absolutely unchecked for 5 weeks until Jan 23 when city was put under quarantine. In fact, per the report below the city govt officials until mid January were counting +ve cases for only those who went to the wet market, and not person to person contact. In a big city like Wuhan, how many would get infected from person to person contact. It would not surprise me at all if the infected in Wuhan city are in the millions. (In fact, it is likely that probably most of the people in Wuhan have been infected). Then you have to consider that half of Wuhan (about 5 million) left 3 days prior to the quarantine and went into rest of China. At 2% death rate, no wonder all their medical facilities are overwhelmed. (Pakistan- which has still not suspended flights to China has reported only one case, and cut travel to Iran!!. India should seriously consider treating travel to Pakistan the same as travel to China).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 29 Feb 2020 21:48

tandav wrote:
Manas wrote:Amber G or Others

Any models on the spread of infection in the tropical countries (with warmer weather already) that have reported a few cases going back 4-5 weeks ago for ex. Thailand, Singapore, India etc. Seems like the spread has largely been contained and limited to a few cases unlike China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran where the weather is probably still wintry/on the colder side resulting in the virus transmitting easier.

Would be interesting to study those trends - will tell us if the Northern Hemisphere will be in good shape in the next 2-3 months as the worries shift to the southern hemisphere.


Yes! Can India take any comfort in assuming that we will be spared the worst effects due to having a warmer climate... I assume that perhaps at higher temperatures viability of the virus outside human body will be lower (reducing the transmission factor by a lot)? Singapore has a few cases but not in lock down mode yet. Monsoons will come in June or July (this will again cause a spike, due to lower temperatures). Any precautions to be taken.

As of now it appears that most of countries where the spread is fast are colder climate countries. Tehran is at 3C, so is Wuhan, Ditto South Korea and most of Japan. One option is to put all these patients into a cruise ship and park it at a high humidity, high temperature tropical zone, which will help in faster recovery and is an automatic quarantine system

Here is what I posted in brf a few days ago .. (data till Feb 23 - not too much data from Iran, Italy etc)
Image
(I am excluding China cases..
Y axis: (horizontal rows represents 50 people)
X Axis: Date (starting with Feb 2 to Feb 23 , each tick 1 week.)

Blue line is "lower temperature", Yellow line "higher temperature" (determined by local temperature of the place)..
(Spread

The data is, of course, incomplete and very fuzzy, .. So take it with looking at all other data.
(Many people are, of course, tracking this .. I will wait for a week or so and produce new graph with much more confidence level. If I see some nice analysis somewhere I will link here)
My take (Based on how droplets stay in air wrt to temperature etc).. that
summer will help, how much - experts still differ. One scientist (who I respect) thinks that China has seen worse of it by April of so it will be under much control.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Feb 2020 22:05

Sorry I should explain a bit about specificity of a test.

CT scan is sensitive for pathology but in infection the report often describes “ground glass opacities”. Sounds impressive but that covers everything from localised pulmonary seems to ARDA pneumonia etc. This is not specific for the Wuhan virus but in the right clinical context, again high prevalence, can be useful. But usually does not tell you anything more than you already knew.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 22:07

How early signs of the coronavirus were spotted, spread and throttled in China

As early as Dec 27, a Guangzhou-based genomics company had sequenced most of the virus from fluid samples from the lung of a 65-year old deliveryman who worked at the seafood market where many of the first cases emerged. The results showed an alarming similarity to the deadly Sars coronavirus that killed nearly 800 people between 2002 and 2003.


Around that time, local doctors sent at least eight other patient samples from hospitals around Wuhan to multiple Chinese genomics companies, including industry heavyweight BGI, as they worked to determine what was behind a growing number of cases of unexplained respiratory disease. The results all pointed to a dangerous Sars-like virus.


That was days before China notified the World Health Organisation (WHO) on Dec 31 about the emergence of an unidentified infectious disease, two weeks before it shared the virus' genome sequence with the world, and crucially, more than three weeks before Chinese authorities confirmed publicly that the virus was spreading between people.


Concerns about the new disease were initially kept within a small group of medical workers, researchers and officials.

On Dec 30, Dr Li Wenliang was one of several in Wuhan who sounded the first alarms and released initial evidence online. Dr Li, who was punished for releasing the information, would perish from the disease five weeks later, after contracting it from a patient.


On Jan 1, after several batches of genome sequence results had been returned to hospitals and submitted to health authorities, an employee of one genomics company received a phone call from an official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, ordering the company to stop testing samples from Wuhan related to the new disease and destroy all existing samples.

The employee spoke on condition of anonymity, saying the company was told to immediately cease releasing test results and information about the tests, and report any future results to authorities.

Then on Jan 3, China's National Health Commission (NHC), the nation's top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them. The order, which Caixin has seen, did not specify any designated testing institutions.


It was Jan 9 when the Chinese authorities finally announced that a novel coronavirus was behind Wuhan's viral pneumonia outbreak. Even then, the transmissibility of the virus was downplayed, leaving the public unaware of the imminent danger.

Finally, on Jan 20, Dr Zhong Nanshan, a leading authority on respiratory health who came to national attention in his role fighting Sars, confirmed in a TV interview that the disease was spreading from person-to-person.

Two days later, Wuhan, a city of 11 million, was placed in lockdown. It remains quarantined today.


SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS PROVIDE CLUES

The earliest results, for the 65-year-old deliveryman who worked at the Wuhan seafood market, were returned on Dec 27 by Vision Medicals, a genomics company based in Huangpu district in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong province.

The patient was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan on Dec 18 with pneumonia and his condition quickly deteriorated. On Dec 24, the doctors took fluid samples from his lungs and sent them to Vision Medicals for testing, according to Dr Zhao Su, head of respiratory medicine at the hospital.

In an unusual move, the company did not send back results, but instead called the doctor on Dec 27.

"They just called us and said it was a new coronavirus," Dr Zhao said.

Vision Medicals confirmed the tests took place in a post it published on social media late last week. The post said the company was involved in early studies on the new coronavirus and contributed to an article published on the English version of the Chinese Medical Journal about its discovery. That article makes specific mention of a sample collected on Dec 24 from a 65-year-old patient who had contact with the seafood market.


A different social media post, believed to have been made by a Vision Medicals employee, sheds more light on the company's early work. The author of the post, made on Jan 28, said only that they worked at a private company based in Huangpu, Guangzhou, where Vision Medicals is located.

The post's author said they noticed a close similarity with the Sars coronavirus in test results of a sample collected on Dec 24, but decided to study the results more closely before returning them, due their significance. The company did, however, share the data with the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, according to the article.


On Dec 27, the lab worked had sequenced most of the virus' genome and had confirmed it was a coronavirus similar to the Sars virus, the article said.


In the following days, company executives paid a visit to Wuhan to discuss their findings with local hospital officials and disease control authorities, the article said.

"There was an intensive and confidential investigation under way, and officials from the hospital and disease control centre had acknowledged many similar patients," it said.

Little information about this early study has been officially released. The patient, who was transferred to Wuhan Jinyintang Hospital, later died.


REVELATIONS TRIGGERED BY 'SMALL MISTAKE'

While researchers at Vision Medicals mulled their findings, the Central Hospital of Wuhan sent swabs from two other patients with the mysterious pneumonia to a Beijing-based lab, CapitalBio Medlab, for study.

One of the samples came from a 41-year-old man who had no history of contact with the seafood market, who was admitted on Dec 27.

Test results delivered by the company showed a false positive for Sars. It was a "small mistake", a gene-sequencing expert told Caixin, which may have been down to a limited gene database or a lack of retesting.

But it was this mistake that triggered the first concerns heard by the public - recalling painful memories of the cover-up that defined the Sars outbreak 17 years before.


On the evening of Dec 30, several doctors in Wuhan, including the late Dr Li Wenliang, privately shared CapitalBio's results as a warning to friends and colleagues to take protective measures.

Those messages then circulated widely online and sparked a public uproar demanding more information. Several people, including Dr Li and two other doctors who sent the messages that night, were later punished by the authorities for "spreading rumours".

Dr Zhang Jixian, who heads the respiratory department at Hubei Xinhua Hospital, noticed on Dec 26 that he had received a growing number of patients with symptoms of pneumonia from the neighboring seafood market. He reported the situation to the hospital the next day, with that report passed on to city and provincial health authorities.

Following the reports, disease control authorities in Wuhan and Hubei on Dec 30 issued an internal notice warning of the emergence of pneumonia patients with links to the seafood market and requiring hospitals to monitor similar cases.

The notice, later leaked online, offered the first glimpse to the public of officials' acknowledgement of the outbreak.


SILENCED ALARMS

Several other genomics companies also tested samples from patients in Wuhan with the then-unidentified virus in late December, Caixin learnt.

Industry leader BGI received a sample from a Wuhan hospital on Dec 26. Sequencing was completed by Dec 29, and showed while it was not the virus that causes Sars, it was a previously unseen coronavirus that was about 80 per cent similar to it.

A BGI source told Caixin that when they undertook the sequencing project in late December the company was unaware that the virus had sickened many people. "We take a lot of sequencing commissions every day," the source said.

Caixin has learnt that the Wuhan hospital sent BGI at least 30 samples from different pneumonia cases for sequencing in December, and three were found to contain the new coronavirus.


In addition to the Dec 26 case, the second and third positive samples were received on Dec 29 and Dec 30. They were tested together and the results were reported to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission as early as Jan 1.

On Jan 1, gene-sequencing companies received an order from Hubei's health commission to stop testing and destroy all samples, according to an employee at one.

"If you test it in the future, be sure to report it to us," the person said they were told by phone.

Two days later on Jan 3, the National Health Commission issued its gag order and said the Wuhan pneumonia samples needed to be treated as highly pathogenic microorganisms - and that any samples needed to be moved to approved testing facilities or destroyed.

One virologist told Caixin that even the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not qualified for the tests and told to destroy samples in its lab.


But that day, Professor Zhang Yongzhen of Fudan University in Shanghai received biological samples packed in dry ice in metal boxes and shipped by rail from Wuhan Central Hospital. By Jan 5, Prof Zhang's team had also identified the new, Sars-like coronavirus through using high-throughput sequencing.

Prof Zhang reported his findings to the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission as well as China's National Health Commission, warning that the new virus was like Sars, and was being transmitted through the respiratory route. This sparked a secondary emergency response within the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Jan 6.


On Jan 9, an expert team led by the CDC made a preliminary conclusion that the disease was caused by a new strain of coronavirus, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.

On Jan 11, Prof Zhang's team became the first to publish the genome sequence of the new virus on public databases Virological.org and GenBank, unveiling its structure to the world for the first time. The NHC shared the virus genomic information with the World Health Organisation the next day.

Also on Jan 11, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission resumed updating infection cases of the new virus after suspending reports for several days. But the government repeated its claim that there had been no medical worker infections and that there was no evidence of human transmission.

Meanwhile, it reported that the number of confirmed cases had dropped to 41.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 22:09

The first two cases of Coronavirus have been reported in Mexico, including one in the Northern state of Sinaloa.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 29 Feb 2020 22:11

Wrf to sensitivity and specificity

Sensitivity and specificity are measures of a test's ability to correctly classify a person as having a disease or not having a disease.

Sensitivity refers to a test's ability to designate an individual with disease as positive.

(A highly sensitive test means that there are few false negative results, and thus fewer cases of disease are missed.)

The specificity of a test is its ability to designate an individual who does not have a disease as negative.

( A highly specific test means that there are few false positive results. )

It may not be feasible to use a test with low specificity for screening, since many people without the disease will screen positive, and potentially receive unnecessary process and take help away from those who need the help.

OTOH - A low sensitive test, may expose public - in cases like this virus.

In ideal condition, we would like to have a test that is both highly sensitive and highly specific.

This is frequently not possible. Typically there is a trade-off.

(For most tests, there are some people who are clearly normal, some clearly abnormal, and some that fall into the gray area between the two. Choices must be made in establishing the test criteria for positive and negative results).

Hope this is helpful.
Last edited by Amber G. on 29 Feb 2020 22:47, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 22:12

Kenya's high court orders suspension of flights from China over coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 22:18

Ecuador reports first case of coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 22:21

France reports 16 new cases of coronavirus, raising total to 73.

French health minister says all gatherings with more than 5,000 people in a confined space are banned due to coronavirus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 29 Feb 2020 22:37

SriKumar wrote:https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642

This study has the actual numbers in a clear form in figure 1. OF the 1014 patients, 105 showed neither +ve RT-PCR nor +ve CT. So these should not be counted amoung the coronoavius infected crowd (it is -ve per 2 criteria). So the total of coroniavirus cases is 580+308+21 = 909. Of which 580+21 = 601 were +ve under the RT-PCR technique, which comes to a percentage of 601/909 ~ 66% (not sure how it is 71%).

SHows how confusing the situation must be for the doctors....how do you treat the people who exhibit the familiar symptoms but test -ve on the RT-PCR test. If you put them in a general ICU ward, and they are actually +Ve, they'll infect the nursing staff and other patients.

Sri Kumarji - Stating a few obvious things which people may already know..

- The available and analyzed data is not "accounting" type of data - hard numbers. This is fuzzy data for statistical analysis. (For example - human errors, data sampling errors, people mislabeling a test kit etc goes it too apart from strict clinical data)

- Typically one assumes a model - to see what specificity and sensitivity of the test fits best with available sample of data. And one predicts number for these values with certain confidence level.

***
Yes all this requires math/statistics concepts and do not produce absolute numbers.

75% sensitivity number I mentioned came from a recent lecture I heard from a person in the field, who had the access to the those scientific papers as well as current US data... the number is consistent with other numbers of 70, 71, or 60% etc.

Point of my post was that according to these experts, CT-scan (in addition to other diagnostic methods) are likely to have high sensitivity and miss fewer patients who actually have the virus.
(This is what happened in China - when they changed the testing criteria and the official list jumped in a day)

True, with low specificity (than a PCR type test).. you may end up counting a few who may not have the virus. But as I said before this is a trade-off.

Hope this is helpful.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Feb 2020 22:41

There seems to be a recurrent echo on this thread.

It would be more useful if people offered gyan de novo.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Feb 2020 22:43

My post above of course is riddled with autocorrect goofs.
That is ARDS.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 23:09

India suspends visas, e-visas for Iranians & other foreigners who have been to Iran after Feb 1.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 29 Feb 2020 23:12

Italy reports 239 new cases of coronavirus and 8 new deaths, raising total to 1,128 cases and 29 dead

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 29 Feb 2020 23:26

For those who are looking at the recent graphs based on ,,.. or collecting data from WHO/CDC/

- Seems like WHO made a lot of changes overnight (Feb 28-Feb29)... Time to draw new/modified graphs to reflect these changes. It also stopped recording certain kind of data. What gives?
- China has re-classified their statistics at least 3 times.. *numerous* revisions to prior numbers... have to sharpen our skills of "renormalizing" the data yet again.. Hubei data still quite sloppy and keeps changing - Shandong Province certainly under-reported ityadi. (some sites where one can load the data in China has old data which changes).
- Highly likely that Iranian data is under-reported too. (Does not fit statistical pattern with news reports coming out)


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