Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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anmol
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby anmol » 14 Sep 2019 00:50

According to CTH (popular blog in trumpverse) this may have something to do with Imran Awan (and rest of his family).

President Trump Cancels Secret Meeting With Taliban Leadership at Camp David…
Posted on September 7, 2019 by sundance

source: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... amp-david/

Wow. This secret meeting is surprising on many levels….ImageBig Picture:  President Trump wants to get out of Afghanistan.  Pakistan is on the supportive side of the Taliban terrorists. India is on the supportive side of the Afghanistan government. China is the biggest financial supporter of Pakistan government. India is big  financial supporter of the Afghanistan government.U.S. President Trump has told Pakistan he expects them to bring the Taliban to the table of negotiation with the Afghanistan government.  To stimulate this outcome the U.S. has withdrawn financial support for Pakistan, pending progress. However, Pakistan replaced U.S. support with larger financial investment by China.So in the background the Taliban terrorists are hiding behind the skirt of China; while the U.S. and India try to drag the Taliban out of that safe place.  It’s a mess; but now we know the motives behind why this was happening…Last year President Trump tweeted about the “Pakistani Mystery Man” and the transparent media avoided the story like it was political Ebola.ImageImage
Learn About Pakistani Mystery Man HERE


The results of the Pakistan intrusion into the U.S. political systems was almost guaranteed to be part of an operation to send the intelligence to China.

Unfortunately, the ramifications for a corrupted branch of government, via Democrats inside the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), led to the U.S. Department of Justice covering up the massive scandal and quickly sweeping the Pakistani infiltrators out of the United States.

It’s essentially the same thing the DOJ did with Senate Select Committee on Intelligence infiltrator and intelligence leaker, Security Director James Wolfe.  Again, the DOJ hiding jaw-dropping intelligence corruption within a branch of government.

Turn the page, and keep reading and you discover, Dianne Feinstein’s Chinese spies in her office… while she was Chairwoman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence… Outcome?  Same/Same.

Anyone noting a pattern yet?…

Just sayin’.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 17 Sep 2019 14:43

Why many leading Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders etc have Paki side kicks

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Philip » 17 Sep 2019 17:00

The one mistake we should not make under any circumstances is to get militarily engaged in Afghanistan, thd graveyard oc empires.The Brits lost two wars there.In one out of almost 16, 000 troops who entered, just one survived.Heed Kipling's famous words;

"When you're wounded and dying on Afghan's dusty plains,
and the women come out to cut up your remains,
just roll on your rifle and blow out your brains,
and go to your god like a soldier."

The British, Russian and Americans and their coalition bumchums- and Pakis too in some measure,have all bitten the dust. Let the Afghans spill their own blood.We have enough fighting to do on our own borders.We aren't another star on some spangled banner

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby ramana » 18 Sep 2019 02:56

The Afghan President Ghani narrowly missed being killed by Taliban bombers to day.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Rudradev » 18 Sep 2019 04:36

ramana wrote:The Afghan President Ghani narrowly missed being killed by Taliban bombers to day.


The very fact that they're attempting decapitation strikes means that they are worried.

Governments in Kabul (and Afghan national security forces) have actually been very effective against Pak-sponsored jihadis historically. The Soviets wound up their presence in Afghanistan by 1988, but Najibullah's govt continued to successfully resist the Mujahedin for another 4 years. It was only when military and financial aid from Russia dried up completely that he could no longer sustain the opposition.

The heavy losses that early '90s Mujahedin and mid-'90s Taliban v1.0 suffered brought home a painful lesson to the ISI: a strong Afghan leadership in Kabul, or even Panjsher, is almost unbeatable no matter how much Wahhabandi brainwashing of Ghilzai Pashtuns you engage in. This is why the first thing ISI/Al-Qaeda did on the day before the 9/11 attacks was to assassinate Ahmad Shah Massoud.

Had Massoud's leadership continued through Operation Enduring Freedom, availing of American largesse in funds as well as air and mil-tech support, it would have been curtains for the Taliban and for Pakistan's agenda, and we'd have been looking at a very different Afghanistan today. Maybe even a very different Pakistan :mrgreen:

So a direct attempt on Ashraf Ghani's life points to the fact that the Pakiban and ISI are far from confident about what is to come and what it will mean for their agenda in Afghanistan.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Vips » 18 Sep 2019 16:58

UN adopts Afghan resolution without China's 'Belt and Road'.

The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a compromise resolution on Tuesday extending the UN political mission in Afghanistan that drops a Chinese demand to include a reference to China's $1 trillion "belt and road" initiative but stresses the need for regional connectivity.

China and Russia (Russia now very much a Chinese puddle) had been clashing with the US and other council members over China's insistence on including its flagship global program in the resolution. With the mandate about to run out, negotiators worked into the night on a watered-down compromise that was adopted Tuesday morning.

The 6 1/2-page draft resolution backed by most of the council was reduced to a 2 1/2-page text that eliminated language about professionalized Afghan security forces, the volatile security situation including the presence of the Islamic State extremist group and foreign fighters, and the increase of displaced people inside the country. It also dropped language on upcoming elections, the peace process, attacks on humanitarian workers, and the importance of women's rights.

US Ambassador Kelly Craft said after the vote that the UN mission, known as UNAMA, would have had "a stronger substantive mandate" if not for the insistence of a member state — a clear reference to China — demanding language highlighting "national political priorities, rather than ways in which we can most effectively assist the people and government of Afghanistan." Britain (America's puddle now wants to become a whore of China) and Belgium (The place where the duplicitous and sanctimonious human rights preaching EU parliament is located) echoed that view.

Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun defended Beijing's position, saying this is not a good time to adopt a comprehensive resolution and calling it "a distortion of the mandate of UNAMA" to say that the UN mission has nothing to do with Afghanistan's economic development and regional connection."As a direct neighbor, China most wants to see peace, stability in Afghanistan and to have lasting peace, there must be impetus for economic development," he said.

Later, Chinese Minister Counselor Yao Shaojun told reporters it was not the right time for a comprehensive resolution because the Afghan presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 28 and "the peace and reconciliation process is still going on, including the talks between US and the Taliban" that are "unpredictable," so "there are a lot of uncertainties."

Diplomats said China wanted to include a call for foreign forces to leave Afghanistan in the resolution, but that was rejected. The resolution does stress "the central importance of a comprehensive and inclusive Afghan-led and Afghan-owned political process towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict" and welcomes progress toward a political settlement.

In extending the UN mission's mandate until September 17, 2020, the council authorized it to support the political process, the organizing of the September 28 presidential election, government reform efforts, the importance of "gender equality and women's and girls' empowerment," protection of children and strengthening promotion and protection of human rights.

The resolution also authorized the mission to "support regional cooperation, with a view to promoting stability and peace, as well as assisting Afghanistan in utilizing its role at the heart of Asia to promote regional cooperation and connectivity, and to work towards a prosperous Afghanistan." And it said the mission should "promote partnership on connectivity, based on transparency, openness and inclusiveness, welcome joint efforts to enhance dialogue and collaboration and to advance shared goals of economic development across the region."

German Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, who drafted the resolution with Indonesia and was a key player in the compromise negotiations, called it "a good, substantial" new text that above all puts the "Afghan people in the center of the resolution." "We were happy that we were able to find a solution after long and tough negotiations," Heusgen said. He said economic development is very important for Afghanistan and the resolution stresses regional integration, connectivity and connectivity partnerships "but we don't mention any specific initiative."

This was the second time in six months that the resolution to keep the UN political mission in Afghanistan operating became embroiled in controversy over "belt and road" language.

Resolutions extending the mandate of the Afghan mission for a year in 2016, 2017 and 2018 had language welcoming and urging further efforts to strengthen regional economic cooperation involving Afghanistan, including through the huge "belt and road" initiative to link China to other parts of Asia as well as Europe and Africa. But in March, when the mandate renewal came up, US deputy ambassador Jonathan Cohen objected, saying Beijing was insisting on making the resolution "about Chinese national political priorities rather than the people of Afghanistan." The resulting clash ended with a bare-bones resolution extending the mission's mandate for six months, with no mention of China's "belt and road" initiative.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby g.sarkar » 27 Sep 2019 04:37

https://www.news18.com/news/india/onion ... 19373.html
Onions Turn Costlier than Apples, Stocks from Afghanistan, Egypt to Provide Relief by Mid-October
In Punjab, the seasonal apple is selling for Rs 60 per kg, at par with onions. A major stock of onions will arrive in Amritsar via Pakistan from Afghanistan as the government is getting ready to import onions to fill in the shortage.
Anuradha Shukla | CNN-News18Updated:September 24, 2019
Chandigarh: No Indian cuisine is complete without the use of staple onions. With the prices of onions surging in the country, common man’s budget has taken a big hit. If the trend continues, news of a truck full of onions getting stolen in Patna may be taken as a sign of times to come.

In Punjab, onions are truely acting pricey and have crossed the prices of apples in many parts of the region. The seasonal apple here is selling for Rs 60 per kg, at par with onions. The wholesale price of onions at the vegetables and fruits market in Chandigarh's Sector 26 is between Rs 40 and 41. The retail price ranges between Rs 60 and 70.

In Shimla, the hub of apple trade, the fruit’s prices start from Rs 30 a kilogram and onions are selling at Rs 60 per kg. In Dharamshala, onions are selling for Rs 60 and the top quality apple variety is priced at Rs 90 a kg.

General Secretary of the market association, Kanwarpal Singh Dua, said the reason behind the short supply of onions is the heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh and Southern parts of India. “Due to rains the stock from Madhya Pradesh was not up to the mark because of moisture. From Southern states also the new crop of onions got ruined due to heavy rainfall. In the Nasik region, from where we get onions of high grading, sowing of the new crop was delayed by a fortnight due to rains. Earlier we used to get this stock well before Diwali but now this crop will arrive well after Diwali as it will be delayed by a month.”

If that dampens your Diwali spirit, there is some good news coming soon from across the borders. A major stock of onions will be arriving in Amritsar via Pakistan from Afghanistan as the government is getting ready to import onions to fill in the short supply. “The stock will arrive via Pakistan in Amritsar in the next few days. Egypt will also supply onions to India and the stock is likely to arrive by October 15.”

“The difference between Afghan onions and the Indian variety is that the latter is of high grading, specially the one from Nasik in Maharashtra. Afghan onions are of lower grading and the packaging is of poor quality while India exceeds in packaging of onions,” Dua says.
.......
Gautam

sanjaykumar
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby sanjaykumar » 04 Oct 2019 06:19

:eek:


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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby KJo » 04 Oct 2019 06:27

sanjaykumar wrote::eek:



Not surprising. Hindus have existed in Afghanistan for long, inspite of Islam. I have a neighbor who is Afghan Hindu and in fact my wife has a Navaratri chanting invitation from his wife this evening. The stories he has to tell about the Mujahideen years are :eek: .

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Rony » 29 Nov 2019 19:35

13 Indian ISIS terrorists held in Afghanistan may soon be repatriated under extradition treaty

Kabul may soon be extraditing 13 Indian ISIS terrorists to India who were amongst more than 600 ISIS terrorists who had surrendered to the Afghan National Army in the last few weeks, says a report published in the Economic Times.

The decision to extradite Indian-origin ISIS terrorists came in the wake of the formalisation of the extradition treaty between the two countries last Sunday. According to the sources, the surrendered ISIS terrorists from India will be repatriated back after following due procedures.

The Indian intelligence agencies assert that a major chunk of the Indian ISIS terrorists is Keralites who were in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. The intelligence agencies’ officials claim that they have been continuously monitoring their communications.

Agencies also believe that many of the missing Indians who were suspected of joining the ISIS have met with a grim fate. Others who have survived the carnage meted out by the US and Afghan forces and have realised that their cause stares an inevitable defeat are now eager to escape the strife-torn region.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Philip » 03 Dec 2019 18:35

Sadly India is getting marginalised in Afg. after years of solid support, building its parliament, infra, defence, etc.
Why? Kowtowing to the US which wants, like Pak, a return of the Taliban to the table. So too does Russia for its own reasons, but any return of the Taliban in any form would negate India's support to Kabul and isolate us giving Pak pole position yet again.Moreover, our spinelessness over oil from Iran being stopped due to US pressure has seen a thawing of relations between Iran and Pak.Imagine if an alliance of Pak, China, Iran the Taliban and Russia, who have just signed the biggest energy deal with China for $ 550 billion , for a gas pipeline taking gas to China, also helping it solve in part the " Malacca dilemma", India, thanks to our myopic MEA is going to be clutching at straws completely isolated and royally shafted in the new Great Game being played on old ground.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby vishvak » 04 Dec 2019 10:44

If Russia is okay about talks with Taliban then it would be more difficult to bomb it than otherwise. The Pakis can pretend to fight terrorism as well. Our fault is that our efforts are towards democratic Afghanistan govt.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Kashi » 04 Dec 2019 10:49

Realistically, what are India's options in Afghanistan, should the so-called new great game indeed ends up being played as it is being claimed.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Karan M » 04 Dec 2019 11:18

Those ISIS guys returning to India should be front page'd across the board. Wake up people to the radicalization in India that we are facing.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby NRao » 04 Dec 2019 11:34

Philip wrote:Sadly India is getting marginalised in Afg. after years of solid support, building its parliament, infra, defence, etc.
Why? Kowtowing to the US which wants, like Pak, a return of the Taliban to the table. So too does Russia for its own reasons, but any return of the Taliban in any form would negate India's support to Kabul and isolate us giving Pak pole position yet again.Moreover, our spinelessness over oil from Iran being stopped due to US pressure has seen a thawing of relations between Iran and Pak.Imagine if an alliance of Pak, China, Iran the Taliban and Russia, who have just signed the biggest energy deal with China for $ 550 billion , for a gas pipeline taking gas to China, also helping it solve in part the " Malacca dilemma", India, thanks to our myopic MEA is going to be clutching at straws completely isolated and royally shafted in the new Great Game being played on old ground.


Three alphabets: POK.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Cain Marko » 07 Dec 2019 05:17

Philip wrote:Sadly India is getting marginalised in Afg. after years of solid support, building its parliament, infra, defence, etc.
Why? Kowtowing to the US which wants, like Pak, a return of the Taliban to the table. So too does Russia for its own reasons, but any return of the Taliban in any form would negate India's support to Kabul and isolate us giving Pak pole position yet again.Moreover, our spinelessness over oil from Iran being stopped due to US pressure has seen a thawing of relations between Iran and Pak.Imagine if an alliance of Pak, China, Iran the Taliban and Russia, who have just signed the biggest energy deal with China for $ 550 billion , for a gas pipeline taking gas to China, also helping it solve in part the " Malacca dilemma", India, thanks to our myopic MEA is going to be clutching at straws completely isolated and royally shafted in the new Great Game being played on old ground.

Reposting what I'd written in West Asia thread:


What India really needs to do is to take a page out of the Russian book wrt dealing with the riffraff in the northwest including AFPAK. They need to find an errand boy like Kadyrov who knows how to deal with these scum, give him a free hand to rule that area with lots of Indian support. So long as he keeps the rascals away from the mainland.

If India doesn't want to get it's hands/feet dirty by putting boots on the ground in that place, at least find someone you can back to the hilt and promise him a free run.

Can't just sit and watch. Might not be able to get another Ahmed shah Masood but somebody like him. India is not the flailing economy of the 90s, it now has the weight to push this through. Better to have proxy wars in another territory than to have to guard own borders.

The upside of it is that the world will thank us for it in the long run.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby anmol » 15 Dec 2019 23:13

X-Posting from Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread

Jesse Rodriguez
@JesseRodriguez
NBC NEWS EXCLUSIVE: Trump admin intends to announce withdrawal of about 4,000 troops from Afghanistan


Trump admin intends to announce Afghanistan withdrawal of 4,000 troops
Dec. 15, 2019, 3:16 AM IST

By Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trum ... n-n1102201

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration intends to announce the drawdown of about 4,000 troops from Afghanistan as early next week, according to three current and former U.S. officials. The withdrawal will leave between 8,000 and 9,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the officials said.

The announcement would come just days after Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad rejoined diplomatic talks with the Taliban, which had broken down in September. On Thursday, Ambassador Khalilzad said the U.S. was "taking a brief pause" in talks after a Wednesday attack near Bagram Airfield killed two Afghan civilians and wounded 70 more.

The U.S. has between 12,000 and 13,000 troops in Afghanistan now. The officials would not say when the drawdown would begin, but did characterize it as a phased withdrawal that would occur over a few months. Two U.S. officials said the drawdown would be a combination of troops re-deploying early and others not being replaced when they rotate out.

U.S. troops patrol at an Afghan National Army (ANA) base in Logar province, Afghanistan on Aug. 7, 2018.Omar Sobhani / Reuters file
In a statement, a spokesman for U.S. Forces-Afghanistan said, “U.S. Forces-Afghanistan has not received orders to reduce troop levels in Afghanistan. We remain fully committed to the Resolute Support mission and our Afghan partners, and focused on our key objective: ensuring Afghanistan is never again used as a safe haven for terrorists who threaten the United States, our allies or our interests.”

President Donald Trump has pushed for a withdrawal from Afghanistan for some time, including during his recent visit to Afghanistan on Thanksgiving, his first as commander in chief.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby krishna_krishna » 19 Jan 2020 01:11

Posting this as this clip has good insights into future of the a'stan and region whole :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDcGlHe ... e=youtu.be

The official circles admit that mass lost in astan and exit is almost final from here and eyee rack. Bunnies will be back.

The price negotiated with porkis is honorable exit for massa with security of bases provided for whatever is left.

The FATF drama will wrap once this is negotiated and porkis again become partner and blue eyed boy.

The current confusion is in the terms both not willing to concede, I believe what will end up is only one or two bases left that are dependent on porkis for support and there by within firing range of them so they can close this tap as and when needed. The porkis will be on sanction regime and other benefits withdrawn if that happens.If they play nice they get their hafta and get to be paw of massa once again.

Porkis being unreliable a parallel (fall over plan ) is negotiated with eye ran and India for alternative route of support.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby mmasand » 27 Jan 2020 19:47

USAF BACN E11-A aircraft down in Taliban territory of Ghazni in Afghanistan. Wonder if DT will brush this under the carpet too.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/12 ... 80096?s=19

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby SBajwa » 27 Jan 2020 20:51

krishna_krishna wrote:Posting this as this clip has good insights into future of the a'stan and region whole :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDcGlHe ... e=youtu.be

The official circles admit that mass lost in astan and exit is almost final from here and eyee rack. Bunnies will be back.

The price negotiated with porkis is honorable exit for massa with security of bases provided for whatever is left.

The FATF drama will wrap once this is negotiated and porkis again become partner and blue eyed boy.

The current confusion is in the terms both not willing to concede, I believe what will end up is only one or two bases left that are dependent on porkis for support and there by within firing range of them so they can close this tap as and when needed. The porkis will be on sanction regime and other benefits withdrawn if that happens.If they play nice they get their hafta and get to be paw of massa once again.

Porkis being unreliable a parallel (fall over plan ) is negotiated with eye ran and India for alternative route of support.


The pseudo islamistjournalist from BBC address CDS General Rawat as "Chief of Army Staff". What is wrong with them!!! funded by Soros?
Last edited by SBajwa on 27 Jan 2020 22:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby mmasand » 27 Jan 2020 21:36

SBajwa wrote:
krishna_krishna wrote:Posting this as this clip has good insights into future of the a'stan and region whole :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDcGlHe ... e=youtu.be

The official circles admit that mass lost in astan and exit is almost final from here and eyee rack. Bunnies will be back.

The price negotiated with porkis is honorable exit for massa with security of bases provided for whatever is left.

The FATF drama will wrap once this is negotiated and porkis again become partner and blue eyed boy.

The current confusion is in the terms both not willing to concede, I believe what will end up is only one or two bases left that are dependent on porkis for support and there by within firing range of them so they can close this tap as and when needed. The porkis will be on sanction regime and other benefits withdrawn if that happens.If they play nice they get their hafta and get to be paw of massa once again.

Porkis being unreliable a parallel (fall over plan ) is negotiated with eye ran and India for alternative route of support.


The pseudo islamist journalist from BBC address CDC General Rawat as "Chief of Army Staff". What is wrong with them!!! funded by Soros?


Sirji, I have heard no less than half a dozen Indian journos address Gen Rawat as COAS on the idiot box yesterday, don't be so quick to summarise someone as a psuedo-Islamist. Both Yalda and sister Maz spend more time holidaying in India, exploring the heritage and temples than Indians themselves.


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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby ranjan.rao » 29 Feb 2020 01:45

seems like the deal is going ahead...after a week long peace...india will be there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-5 ... ting-story

.not clear what exactly india's role will be ..
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-to- ... rs/372445/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51572485

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Manish_P » 29 Feb 2020 19:20

And so it begins...

US, Taliban to sign historic peace deal

US and Taliban will formally sign a peace deal after nearly 17 months of negotiations,clearing the path for Washington to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan and end the 18-year-long war there.

The United States and its allies will withdraw all their forces from Afghanistan within 14 months if the Taliban abide by an agreement due to be signed in Doha on Saturday, Washington and Kabul said in a joint statement.



India was also present in the room, for the first time, albeit as an observer. It was represented by its ambassador to Qatar, P Kumaran. During the US-Taliban negotiations, New Delhi had insisted on an "Afghan-led" approach.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby MeshaVishwas » 29 Feb 2020 20:24

Here’s the 4 page text of the US/Taliban deal signed in Doha. Trump has described it as “a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home.”

https://twitter.com/michelekelemen/stat ... 50464?s=19

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby krishna_krishna » 01 Mar 2020 06:32

This from part one of the agreement sums up from India :
"4.The United States commits to facilitate discussions between Afghanistan and Pakistan to work out arrangements to ensure neither country’s security is threatened by actions from the territory of the other side."

As I have reiterated multiple times in the past on this forum, massa lost the war in Afghanistan big time. So it is time to declare victory and cut & run.

Pakis will now fund terrorists via Taliban and that will be legal. Tough days are coming.

Our best chance lies in this agreement being broken. A number of entities in Afghanistan will want the same.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Mar 2020 07:36

Big question is.... What did India get out of this? Americans to look the other way everytime India decides to bomb the pakiness out of the bunnies and isi types?

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby UlanBatori » 01 Mar 2020 07:58

This sounds like it is patterned on the Russia-Turkey Deconfliction Agreement in Idlib.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Mar 2020 08:37

The nature of the agreement is that within 6 months Taliban/ISI will break it. They will definitely try and embarrass Trump before the Presidential elections.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby pankajs » 01 Mar 2020 19:50

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/stat ... 5990899712
Amrullah Saleh @AmrullahSaleh2

All pending & contentious issues will & must be discussed when talks between the Republic & the Taliban start.Taliban can't cherry pick the issues. It takes two tango. No prisoner will be released ahead of a comprehensive understanding. President @ashrafghani is clear on this.

If the Afghans make this stick the agreement will not last long. We will see.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Lohit » 02 Mar 2020 06:02

Options in front of Ashraf Ghani

The intention of this exercise is to brainstorm what options Ghani might have now that the Taliban will be at his throat very soon and since he has been abandoned (for reasons right or wrong) by the US to the tender mercies of the Taliban.

With most commentors comparing the eerie similarities between the '73 Paris accord the Trump Afghan deal, it is worth juxtaposing the aftermath of both and discussing, how might the party now at most risk - Ashraf Ghani's government can likely survive the fate of what happened to South Vietnam.

Since on their own, the Afghan armed forces seem fairly incompetent given their past record against the Taliban, they might need new military and economic partners to supplement the US as it leaves this theater.

Some options for prospective partners that come to mind,

Pakistan: In a moment of desperation Ghani might make an effort to bury the hatchet and let Pak be the local Dada between his govt and the Taliban. However this still seems highly improbable given that there is no love lost between the two countries, especially in the recent few years with a lot of deadly border skirmishes. Afghanistan's overt/covert support to the emotive Afghan political movement in Pakistan (PTM) only makes this worse, as does Ghanis past tilt to India. It also seems unlikely that Pak will be able to anyway hold off Taliban from their wet dream, 20 years in the making.

China: While China is sufficiently powerful economically and militarily to take up this role it is unlikely to work with the Ghani regime since the preferred choice of its key ally, Pakistan would be the Taliban and their is no reason to believe as to why China would enter the fray to support Ghani when a Taliban controlled Afghanistan would be more firmly aligned to Pakistan and Chinas objectives in the region.

Russia: While Russia with the help of Iran and India propped up the Northen Alliance for decades before NA could displace Taliban with US support, this again seems to be an unlikely scenario. Russia for one, has literally learnt enough lessons of it's own in Afghanistan, plus it is already invested in Ukraine and Syria quite heavily and simply may not have the military or financial capacity of its own to get invested in another theater.

Iran: Iran is a realistic geopolitical player and knows that given its extremely fragile economy, it cannot get involved in a fractious war bang in its neighbourhood and earn the Talibans enemity. It anyway has a lot on its plate with Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen

India: India is simply incapable of supporting Ghani, even though it may have the will and some of the resources because it is completely separated geographically from Afg by Pakistan. Without active Iranian or Russian participation, it seems unlikely that it can do anything to help the Ghani govt.

EU: EU is likely to toe the US line on this and I also dont think they would necessarily want to invest masive economic or military resources since most of them have withdrawn already, some time back.

Gulf block (KSA, UAE, Israel (?)): So this really is the set of parties who might hold some realistic hope, however far fetched for Ghani. A powerful nation strongly aligned to the Saudi led block next to Iran and therefore open to its influence and helping futher Saudi hostility to Iran would be a great plus, from Saudi and Israeli POV. In a way, this could be the Saudi version and payback for Yemen. Moreover, in the past few years Taliban and GCC countries have shared a frosty relationship as the latter modernize their societies, anathema to the hardline Taliban. In addition, the fact that Qatar, their dime sized rival, has orchestrated this whole process, would make them doubly suspect of the Taliban.

In such a scenario could we again see a re-run, rather than Vietnam in '70s but of the Afghan scenario of the '80s, albeit with a few tweaks, with Gulf bankrolling Afghanistan?

Russia might have vested interst too in checking China near its CIS 'sphere' and might support by providing a logistics route and weapons. Access would only be possible via CIS nations as it is the only supply route, if this 'game' involves Iran's encirclement. However it will also perhaps do this guardedly without overly antagonizing Iran or China, its key geopolitical partners against the US and its allies.

America might also support this initiative covertly as it kills 3 birds with one stone - China, Iran and Taliban. However this will not be the case if the China owned (atleast more so than the Reps) Dems come to power.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby kancha » 02 Mar 2020 20:33

Shared some thoughts on the US-Taliban deal.
Blog Link
Twitter Link

Firstly, is this deal a sign that America has lost the war?

Well, many people say it is. Let me, however, offer a different point of view.

If America has indeed lost, who is it that has won this war?

Is it the Taliban? Is it Pakistan? Or is it someone else?

Let’s see ..

Taliban – Some ppl might say that they have won. But then, given the run-up to this deal when they couldn’t initially agree as to who will be the delegates representing the Taliban, leading to the postponement of the talks on atleast one occasion, I can only say that I look forward to the post America future of Afghanistan with increasing scepticism.

Till such time there was a common enemy to be fought, they stayed more or less together, though with a number of factions having their own geographical areas of influence which they guarded zealously even as they went about fighting the Americans. Now with the Americans soon to be gone, and suddenly so much more at stake, it is anybody’s guess as to how they will try and jockey for favourable positions with respect to the self appointed king makers.

Who are these self-appointed king makers, you asked?

Well, the Brown Panted ones sitting in Rawalpindi, of course!

They must be salivating at the laurels coming their way after defeating ‘yet another’ superpower, just like they ‘defeated’ the USSR in the 80s!

Which brings me to the question whether it is Pakistan that has won this war.

Well, they do come close to being the ones who have ‘won’. The simple reason for this being that they will get yet another opportunity to place yet another friendly regime in Afghanistan.

But .. the biggest question here is ‘Will they get an opportunity to install another friendly regime in Kabul at all?’

Feel free to ponder over that for a bit.

Firstly, let us see what constitutes a ‘friendly’ regime in Kabul from a Pakistani perspective. Quite simply, it is the Taliban who are under the thumb of Pakistan Army, who will gladly be their proxies when it comes to drug-running and exporting terror.

But more than that, they need the Taliban for what they are really meant to do – keep India away from Afghanistan, regardless of all the goodwill and all the humanitarian work that India has done for the Afghans. THIS is what their concept of ‘strategic depth’ is all about.

But then, given the recent statements from the Taliban leadership about India, this time round it may be a difficult thing to achieve, PROVIDED the Taliban manage to bomb their way to Kabul in the first place like they did in the ‘good old 90s!’

Somehow I find this prospect of a military takeover of Kabul a highly unlikely outcome.


This is another reason Pakistan always looks to have a pliant government in Kabul – The natural / historical border between present day Pakistan and Afghanistan is not the Durand Line, but the Indus River.


Let me now offer another chain of thoughts about the Americans withdrawing.

The moot question is Do They Even Need to be in Afghanistan?

They’ve killed Osama Ji a long time ago. Their homeland is much more secure today than it was pre 9/11.

IS IT STILL AMERICA’S WAR?

What Afghanistan is today, and what it might be 14 months hence, will still be a big improvement over what it was on September 11, 2001.

You may read the above statement of mine once more.

It is also brought out in the text of the agreement wherein the USA “commits to facilitate discussions between Afghanistan and Pakistan to work out arrangements to ensure neither country’s security is threatened by actions from the territory of the other side”

Understandably, Pakistan is jittery! So much so that they are already issuing ‘not so subtle’ threats to Afghanistan! Mind you, this is the same Pakistan that gets orgasmic everytime the USA hints at ‘mediating’ between Indian and Pakistan on Kashmir!

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby pankajs » 02 Mar 2020 23:41

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1233997405990899712
Amrullah Saleh @AmrullahSaleh2

All pending & contentious issues will & must be discussed when talks between the Republic & the Taliban start.Taliban can't cherry pick the issues. It takes two tango. No prisoner will be released ahead of a comprehensive understanding. President @ashrafghani is clear on this.

If the Afghans make this stick the agreement will not last long. We will see.

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/statu ... 0886195206
Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul

Shortest peace deal ever! Taliban ends partial truce with US, announces to resume Afghan military 'operations' since Afghanistan refused to release their prisoners.

For those who trusted the Taliban terrorists.

I think US will not allow for the deal to fade away so early. Trumpjee want's his victory in Afghanistan. Perhaps another deal backing the original deal will be worked out or they will do something midway.

Will Trumpjee allow his hard won victory to just fade away?

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby pankajs » 04 Mar 2020 10:31

Quoting a TASS report embedded in the tweet.

https://twitter.com/Z_DauletSingh/statu ... 1177564161
Zorawar Daulet Singh @Z_DauletSingh

Russia: "We have told the Taliban straight more than once that we accept no monopoly and [are opposed to] the Taliban’s return to power”

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby ramana » 05 Mar 2020 02:03

Trumpjee might repeat Soleimani on Taliban and Pak ISI generals.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby NRao » 05 Mar 2020 05:13

pankajs wrote:
pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1233997405990899712

If the Afghans make this stick the agreement will not last long. We will see.

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/statu ... 0886195206
Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul

Shortest peace deal ever! Taliban ends partial truce with US, announces to resume Afghan military 'operations' since Afghanistan refused to release their prisoners.

For those who trusted the Taliban terrorists.

I think US will not allow for the deal to fade away so early. Trumpjee want's his victory in Afghanistan. Perhaps another deal backing the original deal will be worked out or they will do something midway.

Will Trumpjee allow his hard won victory to just fade away?


An expert (on jokes?), on BBC, claimed the Taliban have to keep stirring the pot. If they do not, then, he claims, the aam Abdul will - over time - no longer be enthusiastic to fight. And "may not return calls" to pick up arms.

Never knew the Jihadis had free will.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Prem » 05 Mar 2020 05:47

Talibans had killed 20 Afghan troops and USA have already bombed the Taliban in retaliation. The deal will not last a month.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby Lohit » 06 Mar 2020 14:50

Shouldn't we be selling weapons to Afghan army? Why dont we setup the same kind of presence as Russia has in Syria - military advisors and air dominance assets that ensure Ghanis continuation in Afg? Why dont we assemble a new alliance to bolster the Ghani govt?

Afghanistan should be the single biggest strategic priority for GoI, this literally is the one prize that matters.

An Afghan regime that keeps Paks western and Northern borders simmering and provides 'moral' support to Pashtun and Balochi freedom fighters is literally Paks worst nightmare.

This will be Indias own version of a two front war gifted to Pak, in return of the Pak/Chink two front war strategy.

Other advantages that I can think off,

1. Creates a pincer poised on CPEC and helps us disrupt it via Afghan proxies to ensure transit insurance costs are so high that it remains non viable

2. Stretches the Pak army incredibly thin, which ensures that Paks economy suffers much more overall

3. Gives us a foothold right next to the restive Chinese Xinjiang, province and payback China in the same coin it deals us in supporting the NE and Naxal terrorists

4. Places us at any Central Asian energy security discussion table, which is not happening if Afg govt is Pro Pak

5. Gives us a 'Muslim' voice that supports us at OIC, UN etc

6. An armed presence in Afg can immensely help plan a future retaking of PoK, dismemberment of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from Pakjab

I hope God blesses GoI with the courage, cunning and zeal of Chanakya at this critical juncture.

There is already a growing clamor of voices (the usual suspects of the fifth column) that are counseling non intervention in Afg.

I pray that NaMo finds in it him to go hard for Afg, if not it will be the missed opportunity of the millennium for India.

Edit: Grammar

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby krishna_krishna » 08 Mar 2020 01:46

ramana wrote:Trumpjee might repeat Soleimani on Taliban and Pak ISI generals.


Prem wrote:Talibans had killed 20 Afghan troops and USA have already bombed the Taliban in retaliation. The deal will not last a month.


I disagree on both the accounts, US is exhausted with Afghan war. President trump as part of his presidential campaign had made it clear that he would bring troops home and get out from this useless war and explicitly on many occasion has made it clear that he does not want us involved with such wars.

There was an abortive effort earlier and us backed off from that (doha when someone else went on bunnies behalf), they have picked up the threads since captain became porky PM and this was agreed for one week to see how it goes and then finally the peace deal would have concluded which included :

1) The US troops from current about 13K would reduce to about 8K in next 100 days.
2) The bunnies would be taken of US Sanctions list by June (which is about 100 days from now).
3) All the troops from US wrapped but within a year.

If you look at recent attack it was claimed by Da'ish not bunnies, mark this post US president will say in near future that tallibunnies are great guys and I have good relations with them.

What India should do is the question , there are two things to watch out for :

1) What would be the residual force if any left after us withdrawal
2) Will afghan government supported by international funds.

This will dictate our future and future of Afghanistan. We must start having covert capability presence on ground now supported via ayni base in Tajikistan like we had, "Chhabahar" is still mirage and Iranians cannot be trusted. RE-take PoK and get ancient Bharata borders that is solution to India's problem and will keep sick wasabis out of sub continent for another 100 years.

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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Postby krishna_krishna » 11 Mar 2020 08:00

Ignore the host, focus on the ambassador, he is our best mind on Afghanistan :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdY2B6iT_Yo

Rakesh food re-iterates everything posted above


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