Levant crisis - III

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UlanBatori
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Mar 2020 05:18

I don''t know if the arguers here have considered how the Taliban, 8 years after they were totally routed and Containerized in Afghanistan, are today so powerful still that they are at the point of invading all Afghan cities. What else do you want as a demonstration of Pakistani Power? Who else can be funding and equipping the Taliban? So don't you think that every incident of US troops being targeted, is a Paki attack on the USA?

Russia is doing to turkey what the US did to Pakistan: US drones have killed several thousand Pakis, in strikes conducted deep inside Pakistan. Always "no comment". Russia attributes all strikes on Turkish assets, on Syrians, and then says it is because, oops! Turkey did not inform that their forces were inbedded with the terrorists, not sitting on their Observation Posts per the Socchi Accord.

The moment a "Syrian" Mig-21 shoots down 4 or 5 Turkish F-16s" by "accident", we will know that there is a material change: that the Russian ships are on station, enough ships have broken out through the Bosporus, and the Tu-160s are ready for their missions. I think that is getting very very close.

Will Erdogan have the smarts to back off before that stage? Will Putin agree again to have a terrorist-infested Idlib with Turkish "Observation Posts"? Maybe Erdogan can salvage a ceasefire before the SAA reaches the border on M-4 and the Turkish residents can see them over the border. I hope not, and I hope he is thrown out completely, followed by a Rojava breakout that clears Turks out of Turkey-Occupied Kurdistan. If that happens Turkey may well break up, with the Bosporus in the hands of Bear-friendly entities.
I think that last part is Putin's end-game for that region, territorially.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rony » 04 Mar 2020 07:44

Talmiz Ahmed, one of India's best minds on middle east talking about Turkey and Syrian civil war


Erdogan May Have Committed The Ultimate Sin, Strategic Overreach'

They are allies or were until the other day when things began to come apart. This is with reference to Turkey and Russia who shared similar goals in Syria, and now are on opposite sides it would seem. Turkey seems to want to consolidate its position in Syria and has its troops actively assisting Islamic extremists battling President Bashar Assad's forces. Assad has Russia's backing and this is where it appears Turkey's President Recip Erdogan is guilty of strategic overreach. In fact, when one looks at Erdogan, he's meddling in Libya 2000 km away, he has alienated his Mediterranean neighbours over his energy ambitions and has been thumbing his nose at the US for some time. StratNews Global speaks to Talmiz Ahmed, India's former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE to get the sense of Erdogan.




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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 04 Mar 2020 10:39

UlanBatori wrote:I don''t know if the arguers here have considered how the Taliban, 8 years after they were totally routed and Containerized in Afghanistan, are today so powerful still that they are at the point of invading all Afghan cities. What else do you want as a demonstration of Pakistani Power? Who else can be funding and equipping the Taliban? So don't you think that every incident of US troops being targeted, is a Paki attack on the USA?

Russia is doing to turkey what the US did to Pakistan: US drones have killed several thousand Pakis, in strikes conducted deep inside Pakistan. Always "no comment". Russia attributes all strikes on Turkish assets, on Syrians, and then says it is because, oops! Turkey did not inform that their forces were inbedded with the terrorists, not sitting on their Observation Posts per the Socchi Accord.

The moment a "Syrian" Mig-21 shoots down 4 or 5 Turkish F-16s" by "accident", we will know that there is a material change: that the Russian ships are on station, enough ships have broken out through the Bosporus, and the Tu-160s are ready for their missions. I think that is getting very very close.

Will Erdogan have the smarts to back off before that stage? Will Putin agree again to have a terrorist-infested Idlib with Turkish "Observation Posts"? Maybe Erdogan can salvage a ceasefire before the SAA reaches the border on M-4 and the Turkish residents can see them over the border. I hope not, and I hope he is thrown out completely, followed by a Rojava breakout that clears Turks out of Turkey-Occupied Kurdistan. If that happens Turkey may well break up, with the Bosporus in the hands of Bear-friendly entities.
I think that last part is Putin's end-game for that region, territorially.


Sounds good but there is no sign of a Russian buildup in theatre except for two missile cruisers and supply ships filled with new tanks and IFV's to replace the all the ones the Turks blew up.

I don't think you're appreciating the gigantic buildup that would be required before Russia could take on Turkey in a conventional fight. The Russians just simply don't have anywhere near the necessary forces in the region, and sadly they share no land border with Turkey (if they did, of course, Turkey would never have dared attack Syria in the first place).

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 04 Mar 2020 11:00

The Russki prosecution of war in Syria is an excellent example of how well their tech and support systems worked. ideally, a country would do well to have a small high -tech force to gain initial advantage, followed by large amounts of cheap and robust systems to ensure said advantage.


I support the Russians 100% in Syria, but let us be honest, they proved competent at medium-to-high altitude bombing against ground targets armed only with MANPAD's. The Russians demonstrated excellent readiness and a very high sortie rate. On every level, Russian logistics were excellent.

What they did NOT demonstrate was the ability to fight a modern opponent or a true precision strike capability. Their semi-guided dumb bombing was effective enough (and cheap) but there have been so many times throughout this campaign where precision strike would have been a game changer, especially when supporting the advances of ground troops.

Truth be told, if they had the will (and the balls), Italy or Netherlands or Greece or just about any country with a decent little airforce could do exactly what the Russians did in Syria.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Mar 2020 11:19

^if wishes were horses, you know the rest. It takes a hell of a lot more than a little airforce to manage an effective campaign 1000s of miles away.

The Russians turned the tide of the war in Syria and saved Assad's govt, no 2 ways about that. And that too by facing down an alliance that had the might of NATO and the US plus assorted oil rich sheikhdoms.

That sir, is no mean feat. Poor tech or not.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 04 Mar 2020 11:59

foreign deployment is just not about aircrafts and personnel as some seem to think. The support structure for deployment requires technical depth and deep manufacturing base.

stock & source spares in adv (only if industry is domestic and deep manufacturing base)
field-based jammers (EW warfare equipment and EW jammers)
base protection AD systems
resupply of munition, stores, new equipment
secured radio and comms
build up of onsite wwr (war wastage reserves)
supply & resupply of fuel, medicines, rations,
satellite reconaissance
aerial reconaissance, UAV, remote sensing capabilities
aerial jammers & ew systems like growler, tu-214r
aerial refuellers and combat support systems (awacs)
secured, jamproof navigation signals
logistics strength for resupply via land & sea.
submarines, naval fleet for securing sea lane logistics
specialized personnel for demining, bomb detection, radiation, NBC warfare.

----weakness or inadequacy in any of above fields will be exploited by enemy to the hilt. Now keeping that in mind, how many countries in the world have wherewithal to send troops for overseas deployment successfully.
greece, netherlands, italy ?? :rotfl:
I will say currently only 3 countries qualify. US, Russia & probably China. Now China is untested but it can cover all bases.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby vishvak » 04 Mar 2020 12:26

What they did NOT demonstrate was the ability to fight a modern opponent or a true precision strike capability. Their semi-guided dumb bombing was effective enough (and cheap)

..why give special importance (or is specific correct word here) to barbarians.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 04 Mar 2020 17:08

Rony wrote: Russia recently bombed Turkish soldiers to bit and pieces. RuAF has resumed its air strikes on Turkish proxies again. When was the last time US bombed Pakistani soldiers/military advisers in Afghanistan ? And none of the Russian actions or limitations wrt to Turkey in Syria are related to its supposed inferiority of Russian weapons as you first alleged.

The Russians say it was the Syrians who bombed the Turks. And then they let the Syrians get bombed to bits and pieces by Erdogan. If the Russians did it but are unwilling to accept responsibility, that itself speaks volumes.
The Pakistanis didnt take over a part of Afghanistan, shot down an American plane, boasted about it etc.
I only said that that the Russian accommodation of Erdogan gives a poor impression of Russian arms. "Inferior" is a relative term. I didnt compare Russian weapons with anything. My argument was and is that the Russians may not be confident about handling Turkey in a conflict (because of weapons, training, whatever), and that may be the reason why they are acting the way they are.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Mar 2020 19:01

^ Maybe they have a plan to see Turkey collapse w/o Russian BOG or airmen risking lives too much. Looks like the Americans are doing exactly that - provide Erdogan with high-priced ammo and spares. Russia is doing it in small steps. Latest is that Putin "hopes" that talks with the Gan-doo will be "fruitful" etc. While he builds up and negotiates with the Kurds to start the next phase. Or maybe with Armenia.
Putin still needs the Turkey-Stream to screw Poland and other FSU/Warsaw Pact traitors. So he has to keep the response calibrated.

Consider the sheer brink-Putin-ship: ONE successful attack on Kheinim that makes the based kaput for a week, and it's all over for Assad: Turkey and Israel will bomb SAA and Damascus into the ground.

Which is why those missile ships and supersonic bombers have been brought within range. Some more ships have to break out through the Bosporus to protect those, so some more days of hide-and-seek needed.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rony » 04 Mar 2020 22:52

Parasu wrote: My argument was and is that the Russians may not be confident about handling Turkey in a conflict (because of weapons, training, whatever), and that may be the reason why they are acting the way they are.


We have to agree to disagree.Putin's current limitations wrt to Turkey are tactical and political in nature and has nothing to do with Russian weapons or training IMVHO.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 04 Mar 2020 23:23

Definitely some mental gymnastics at play here. I see the usual 101 excuses why, despite all appearances to the contrary, Russia is afraid to fight Turkey. Let's stop being so ridiculous here; do you think in 2015 Putin would have accepted the humiliation of watching a Russian plane shot down, pilot murdered, Turkey bragging about it, etc, unless he had no choice?

Russia knew it was vulnerable in 2015 and is even more vulnerable now. They don't think they can win a conventional military fight with Turkey, and they'd be right; a few dozen planes and a couple of missile frigates are not enough to deter Turkey. The additional several hundred combat aircraft in the Caucases and various the cruise\ballistic missiles on the Black Sea coast are mildly scary, but the fact is Turkey is vast; they can sit there and absorb air and missile strikes for months. Meanwhile they would just methodically blast their way to Latakia and Himenem. Of course they'd probably shut down the Russian airbases with overwhelming air and drone strikes first.

Obviously Turkey would prefer they don't have to fight that hard; they'd be happier if Russia just wimped out, but the point is Turkey knows they can win if it comes to war. Turkey is obviously more confident than Russia - you can see it in their offensive posture, their actions and the public statements coming from their govt. In any other contest Turkey would not stand a chance against Russia, but the uniquely favorable circumstances of Syria have given Turkey a huge advantage. And they're using it.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gyan » 04 Mar 2020 23:25

Russia will let Turkey overstretch and concede time, space, land & political rhetoric. Then Turkey will simply fall apart as it has neither friends nor resources

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 00:41

Turkey has Parliamentary democracy!

Peto Lucem Retweeted
Hala Jaber@HalaJaber ·2h When a member of #Turkey’s Parliament, #Engin_Özkoç bravely criticised #Erdoğan’s operation & involvement in #Syria, members of the #AKP took offence & launched a fist fight in Parliament against him & other CHP members.
Quote Tweet
halktv.com.tr
@halktvcomtr · 4h
Meclis'te AKP'li vekillerin CHP'li Özkoç'a yumruklu saldırısı kameralara yansıdı https://halktv.com.tr/gundem/meclist

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 00:48

Peto Lucem Retweeted
Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai ·2h
#Russia may accept a ceasefire with a guarantee M4 will be open IMMEDIATELY. Otherwise, it will be opened by fire, with a guarantee from #Turkey & deadline/schedule that all jihadists will be relocated from #Idlib. #Syria has the upper hand and doesn't need to give concessions.

Peto Lucem Retweeted
ali ornek @ornekali·9h President Erdoğan has just said: “#Idlib is part of watan” (Belongs to #Turkey) “Preventing humanitarian disaster” (R2P) is now outdated...#Syria

Peto Lucem Retweeted
Bosphorus Naval News
@Saturn5_·3h
Russian large landing ship Tsezar Kunikov made her 3. southbound passage through Istanbul, this hazy gray afternoon. She is the 3 ship to carry cargo to Syria since the start of Turkish operation around Idlip. Photos from big long distance Ca. 3 nm.

Russian Embassy, Syria @RusEmbSyria ·9h
MoD: #Turkey has allowed its observation posts, established under 2018 #Sochi deal, to virtually merge with #terrorist bases in #Idlib. In violation of international law it has deployed a strike force the size of a mechanised division there
https://sptnkne.ws/B8Rd

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 00:49

At Joe Biden meeting, perRT.com
Joe Biden may have scored big wins on Super Tuesday, but the Democratic presidential candidate failed to woo a military veteran who grilled him over his support for the disastrous invasion of Iraq.

In a video posted by Veterans Against the War, a man who identified himself as a former member of the Air Force approached the former vice president and quizzed him about his dicey foreign policy record.
“We are just wondering why we should vote for someone who voted for a war, who enabled a war that killed thousands of our brothers and sisters, countless Iraqi citizens,” the veteran said to a surprised-looking Biden.
Two veterans confronted @JoeBiden about his record of supporting war during his campaign stopover in Oakland on Super Tuesday. Read more here- https://t.co/ushpLvVXK5#DroptheMIC#NoMoreWar#VetsAgainstWarpic.twitter.com/M7iGZa7DOs
— About Face: Veterans Against the War (@VetsAboutFace) March 4, 2020
He continued, arguing that Biden had “enabled” the invasion of Iraq, noting that the former vice president had even awarded ex-president George W. Bush, who launched the war, a ‘Liberty Medal’ in 2018. Biden, the veteran insisted, must be held responsible for throwing his support behind the deadly foreign policy quagmire.
Their blood is on your hands as well. You are disqualified, sir. My friends are dead because of your policies

Biden retorted by stating that his son, who served for one year in Iraq, was also dead — an odd argument to make, since Beau Biden died of brain cancer years after leaving the Middle East.

“I’m not going after your son,” the veteran responded. As Biden walked away, the ex-Air Force member got in the last word.

[There is] no way he can be president… Millions are dead in Iraq… Trump is more anti-war than Joe Biden

The crowd then began to chant “Joe, Joe, Joe!” to which one veteran filming the altercation shouted back: “We actually fought in your damn wars… you sent us to hurt civilians.”

Biden’s support for the 2003 invasion has been repeatedly pointed out by his main rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has argued that the former vice president will preserve the foreign policy status quo in Washington.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 08:25

What is this MoAB?
Elijah J. Magnier@ejmalrai· 5h Putin-Erdogan meeting: a storm is expected over the “mother of all battles” in Idlib; Ayn al Arab is at stake https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/04/put
Peto Lucem Retweeted
Russian Embassy, Syria @RusEmbSyria ... when you have removed your white helmet, but have forgotten to take off the White Helmets' jacket and - highly likely - lost the way somewhere in between sites of "brutal barbaric airstrikes" ...

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 05 Mar 2020 09:08

Ordinary citizens and Turkish lawmakers were especially furious that Turkey could not airlift its wounded soldiers in Syria because Russia declared a no-fly zone for Turkish aircrafts. As a result, they had to be evacuated by vehicle on bumpy roads to Turkey.

Critical articles about how the war in Syria is concealing the serious economic crisis in Turkey.

Opposition leaders are now demanding Erdogan negotiate with Assad a safe withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria.


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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gyan » 05 Mar 2020 14:26

Has the Area captured by Kurds in North Syria come into hands of SAA or not? Conflict maps continue to show it as Kurd held Area.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 05 Mar 2020 16:35

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
55m
Videos released by the Turkish Ministry of Defense, allegedly recording the destruction of SAA in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces, have proven to be false.They contain significant traces of video editing and computer graphics, moreover, 90% of all published video material.++


Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
56m
Replying to
@ynms79797979
According to experts, on the vast majority of video material you can see the same parts of fragments, some of which are scaled but at the same time have the same characteristic shape, while some fragments even disappear completely in the air.++


Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
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56m
Moreover, some of the materials allegedly captured by the Syrian army and military equipment were mostly created using computer graphics, especially the unusual movement of tanks and soldiers by the experts.
"The Turkish Defense Ministry continues to publish grandiose forgeries

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 05 Mar 2020 16:52

Rony wrote:
Parasu wrote: My argument was and is that the Russians may not be confident about handling Turkey in a conflict (because of weapons, training, whatever), and that may be the reason why they are acting the way they are.


We have to agree to disagree.Putin's current limitations wrt to Turkey are tactical and political in nature and has nothing to do with Russian weapons or training IMVHO.

That's quite possible.
It is also possible that there are a multitude of factors responsible for the way Russia is acting.
I may, of course, be biased by my desire to see Turkey cut to size. Currently, Erdogan is successfully playing the West and Russia against each other.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 05 Mar 2020 17:00

At the time Russia is receiving Erdogan a tweet by the Russian Foreign Ministry reminds him how Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire and forced it to sign the Treaty of San Stefano in March 1878 in Constantinople. It has accused Erdogan of altering Syrian demography after occupying the Afrin province and Tal Abyad, forcing the departure of over 350,000 Kurds and the relocation of Turkmen militants and their families instead.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mfa_russia/s ... 12579?s=19


MFA Russia
@mfa_russia
·
Mar 3
The crucial battles of the Russo-Turkish war in 1877-1878 took place in #Bulgaria. Bulgaria declared a national holiday, National Liberation Day, to mark the date of the signing of #TreatyOfSanStefano,when the country was liberated from the Ottoman Rule

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rsatchi » 05 Mar 2020 17:22

Gyan wrote:Russia will let Turkey overstretch and concede time, space, land & political rhetoric. Then Turkey will simply fall apart as it has neither friends nor resources

GyanJi
Hope this comes true:
RmamanJi
Agree totally that ISIS is dead with a Caveat : only to be reborn as some other Sunni org.
Also greater Kurdistan is more likely scenario(and Kurds at present hate all other ethnic groups in the region but once in power god knows what they would end up doing)
So me thinks:
Smaller Turk, Greater Kurdistan, A small chunk of Iraq sunni area sandwiched between Damascus centred greater Alwaite/Shia region and greater Iran/Shistan provided the US/Saudi is counter balanced by Chin-Rus and the 'Mantan' of Shia-Sunni is allowed.
This 'Mantan' would be good for 'Rise of Dharma' in the next cycle of 'Game of thrones'(sorry couldn't help myself!!)
If not we should actively/covertly encourage this mantan
Palestine will die one the way and West bank will be another province in Jewish state. Lebanese if they have common sense would join this greater jewish state
In all this I don't know what will happen to the Trans-Jordan(the rightful Hashemite protector of the M & M)

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Vikas » 05 Mar 2020 17:27

Russia is no America..

Why would Russia fight with Turkey in a explicit war instead of current state of using Assad and his forces ?
What strategic purpose does it serve considering that Russia will not be able to break up Turkey or occupy any land mass assumption being Turkey will not be able to handle the onslaught (Highly doubtful though).
On top their is always a risk of bear getting a bloody nose since a war with Turkey once again will attract Jehadi scum from all across the globe.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 19:02

Holding my breath for outcome of Erdogandoo begging in Moscow. Idlib is still hugely occupied so is the Afrin region wherever that is. SAA not even trying to get anywhere near Idlib city. (face the facts: Turkey and "Al Qaeda" and "Al Nusra" and "SNA" are all the same thing: ISIS). SAA occupying a few scattered villages from where the ISIS has withdrawn, is only forcing SAA to spend resources on holding territory and caring for/policing those places, while ISIS concentrates on destroying SAA elsewhere.

There **HAS** to be a huge destruction of Turkish forces inside Syria. Trouble is, I don't see how to do that without neutralizing their F-16 fauj.

Maybe also the occupation of a significant chunk of Turkish territory. The **ONLY* way I see for the last part is secession by the Kurds. At this point, there is a high chance that EU, even Swedenistan, will see that and maybe facilitate it. Create an EU/UN Safe Zone in Turkish Kurdistan. Syria may have to give up some terrtory (already has) to make that viable. I don't know if Iraq will have to also.

This may also Erdogandoo's rush to Moscow: his fancy NATO TFTA guns are running out of bullets, 14 of his drones are dead.

President @RTErdogan received U.S. Representative to the United Nations Kelly Craft at the Presidential Complex. pic.twitter.com/FSNi3NY9io
— Turkish Presidency (@trpresidency) March 4, 2020
Earlier in the week, Craft joined US special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey in visiting Idlib. On that occasion, Jeffrey apparently promised US ammunition and supplies to the Turkish Army – only for State Department officials to quickly walk back those comments and explain they were referring to “ongoing US support” to Ankara.
While the US media and lawmakers talk tough about Idlib, President Donald Trump has remained quiet on the matter, apparently letting things unfold on their own.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Rony » 05 Mar 2020 19:27

habal wrote:Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
55m
Videos released by the Turkish Ministry of Defense, allegedly recording the destruction of SAA in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces, have proven to be false.They contain significant traces of video editing and computer graphics, moreover, 90% of all published video material.++


This is true. Some of the drone attack videos which Turkish fanboys in twitter and social media are jerking off to are fakes. There is this one particular video of a turkish drone strike on a SAA's Pantsir S1 in Idlib which later turned out to be a edited video.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 05 Mar 2020 21:24

the arrival of buk & pantsir into idlib has turned the drone scenario dramatically.

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
2h
The Syrian army has shot down a Turkish UAV personally signed by Erdogan
Image
Image

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 05 Mar 2020 23:27

Fascinating stuff. We are seeing history made here. This is the first war where a conventional military force (Syria and allies) are fighting armed drones. Up to now, it has always been drones vs peasants with AK's. Unsurprisingly, drones do not fare as well against a proper army. What's particularly interesting is the reported use of lasers by Russian advisors rushed to the front line over the last week.

Turkey started with a out 130+ armed drones a week ago, but some of that fleet is probably in Libya. And they appear to have lost 15 or 16 of them in Syria the past week. So unfortunately that still leaves Turkey plenty of room for mischief, and they still have a division+ in Idlib.

I predict a big chunk of Syria's Idlib will be given to Turkey to supposedly be the "safe zone" for all these Al-Queda refugees. They'll probably give away some of the Kurd lands also. Syria has to accept partition as Russia does not have the necessary military superiority to intimidate Turkey into backing down. I don't like it but that appears to be the reality.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Mar 2020 23:36

^^ Depends on whether Erdogan survives the ammo crunch. I think that situation is beyond desperate given the tail-on-fire scuttling. A couple of accidents at ammo dumps would be a very nice think to have now.
Turkey needs drones for other things, like against the PKK, so the loss of 15 is likely to be >50% of their available force for Idlib. Curtails enthusiasm a bit.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 00:53

The Gandoo has very quickly agreed to "de-escalation" and "joint patrols on M4". To me this means Russians get access all the way to the Turkish border on M4, and no one comes on it without Smirnoff say-so. I don't know what is the territory carved out of Syria, but the lovey-dovey statements about Territorial Integrity of Syria and about Syrians onlee deciding hu rules Syria, sound like the Gandoo swallowing his own words.

Back to the interesting bit: Does he keep S400 and thus get :P from US? or give up S400 and get kicked by Putin?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gyan » 06 Mar 2020 00:59

Radical Islam will never die till Crude Oil remains above USD 20 per barrel

Evangelical Christianity will become defensive only when Eirope erupts due to migration crisis

Next 10 years are going to be different

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Parasu » 06 Mar 2020 02:24

Good job by Erdogan again.
Turkey has been wanting an end to the assault on Idlib since it began. Now a ceasefire grants Erdogan just that.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 03:14

Assad and Putin need the 2 weeks to restock and consolidate. No ceasefire in Idlib lasts more than that. Maybe Turkey's interest payments will come due along with 'dogandoo's date with a coup as the real casualty toll from Idlib Expedition becomes known.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 03:17

From another twitter feed:

Gülnur Aybet
@Gulnuray
·
3h
Highlights of Memorandum on #Idlib agreed between #Turkey and #Russia:
1. Ceasefire as of 00:01 of March 6, 2020.
2. Establishment of a security corridor 6km north & south of M4 highway.
3. Joint Turkish-Russian patrols along M4 from Trumba to Ain-Al-Havr to commence 15.3.2020.

New map: Apparently SAA gets control of everything in the red striped region?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 03:20

Marwa Osman ||
@Marwa__Osman
·
23m
How the Turkish occupation is being dragged out of #Idlib
The #SAA cleaning the area it liberated

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 03:27

What really happened in Moscow... (worth watching)

Better map of ceasefire: Lots of Turkish observation posts even in Aleppo province!

So what does it mean for only the M4 to be "secure zone", unless it is for 1-way trip out of Syria to Turkey?

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Mar 2020 06:43

habal wrote:the arrival of buk & pantsir into idlib has turned the drone scenario dramatically.

This is exactly what I was expecting. Arrival of even basic gbad will make mince meat of drones. All this talk of drones being more important that fighter jets is pure fantasy vs foe who has decent SAM coverage. They work great against rag tag bunny types but against a decent force, you'll never achieve anything without proper sead and dead capability.

Iows in India case, a door buster is a must. Hence the f35.

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 06:58


UlanBatori
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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Mar 2020 07:04

Peto Lucem Retweeted
Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai·5h I now have very good news for the integrity of #Syria: The question of jihadists control of #Idlib (yes Idlib and not only the M4 and M5) is over and will be behind us this year. Many positive outcomes discussed in #Moscow in the benefit of Syrian unity.


It can't be all bad: Gen. Smirnoff take note.
Peto Lucem Retweeted Y.N.M.S @ynms79797979 · 5h The terrorist organization Al-Nusra Front rejects the outputs of the Moscow meeting and will continue military action


Turkish soldiers pests-e-sha'eed
BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:45 P.M.) – Minutes ago, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced the death of two Turkish soldiers in Syria, as the upcoming ceasefire approaches.
According to the Ministry of Defense, the two Turkish soldiers were killed during a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) attack; however, they did not provide details or the exact location of the incident.
The death toll for the Turkish Army in the past week has exceeded 60, making this the bloodiest seven days for them since the start of the Syrian conflict.


Peto Lucem Retweeted @Hevallo·7h Best thing for me from the Moscow meeting between Erdogan and Putin was the subservient stature of the Turkish delegation in front of Putin and standing under the statue of Catherine the Great who defeated the Turks several times during the XVIII century. #TwitterKurds

Peto Lucem Retweeted Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai·7h #BreakingNews:
Erdogan:" We shall establish a cease-fire from tonight this midnight (24:00) and assure the return of refugees and IDP in #Idlib #Syria".

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Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 06 Mar 2020 08:11

Assed's atrocities in syria know no bounds

The'Nimr'Tiger
@Souria4Syrians
·
9h
These Syrian boys have missed 2 years of education because Assad bombed their school in Idlib

One of them told me he want to become astronaut like Barack Obama

Image


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