Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[sreerudra]

Thanks.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... oronavirus

The WHO says 70 percent of global disease-causing pathogens discovered in the past 50 years came from animals.

Somebody should tell the Chinese tigers and rhinoceros' contain far deadlier germs.
I think consumption of cats, dogs, snakes, reptiles and a whole bunch of other things must be banned.

Tell me about it. They just eat anything and use the same god damned microwave that stinks the whole afternoon on the entire office floor.. I for one stopped using the microwave in the office.

[vijayk]

Can't vouch for authenticity ... came on whatsapp ... looked genuine.

Story from a COViD-19 patient in Seattle :
I had COVID-19 and here is my story. I made this post public out of several requests from my friends who asked me to share. I hope it gives you some good information and peace of mind!

First how easily you can get it. I believe I caught it when attending a small house party at which no one was coughing, sneezing or otherwise displaying any symptoms of illness. It appears that 40% of the attendees of this party ended up sick. The media tells you to wash your hands and avoid anyone with symptoms. I did. There is no way to avoid catching this except avoiding all other humans. 40% of folks were all sick within 3 days of attending the party all with the same/similar symptoms including fever.

Second, the symptoms appear to be different depending on your constitution and/or age. Most of my friends who got it were in their late 40s to early 50s. I’m in my mid 30s. For us it was headache, fever (for first 3 days consistently and then on and off after 3 days), severe body aches and joint pain, and severe fatigue. I had a fever that spiked the first night to 103 degrees and eventually came down to 100 and then low grade 99.5. Some folks had diarrhea. I felt nauseous one day. Once the fever is gone some were left with nasal congestion, sore throat. Only a very few of us had a mild itchy cough. Very few had chest tightness or other respiratory symptoms. Total duration of illness was 10-16 days. The main issue is that without reporting a cough or trouble breathing many of us were refused testing. I got tested through the Seattle Flu Study. This is a RESEARCH study here in Seattle and they have been testing volunteers for strains of the flu to study transmission within the community. A few weeks ago, they started to test a random subset of samples for COVID-19 infection. They sent my sample to the King County Public Health Department for confirmation; however, I was told that all of the samples that have tested positive in the research study have been confirmed by Public Health.

As of Monday March 9th, it has been 13 days since my symptoms started and more than 72 hours since my fever subsided. The King County Public Health Department is recommending you stay isolated for 7 days after the start of symptoms or 72 hours after your fever subsides. I have surpassed both deadlines so I am no longer isolating myself however I am avoiding strenuous activity and large crowds and I obviously will not come near you if I see you in public. I was not hospitalized. Not every country is hospitalizing everyone with a COVID-19 infection and in my case, and in many other cases, I didn’t even go to the doctor because I was recovering on my own and felt it was just a nasty flu strain different from the ones I have been protected from with this season’s flu vaccine.

I also truly believe the lack of testing is leading to folks believing that they just have a cold or something else going out into public and spreading it. And worse folks with no symptoms are also spreading it as in the case of a person attending a party or social gathering who has no symptoms.

I know some folks are thinking that this can’t/won’t impact them. I hope it doesn’t but I believe that the overall lack of early and pervasive testing damaged the public’s ability to avoid the illness here in Seattle. All I know is that Seattle has been severely impacted and although I’m better now I would not wish this very uncomfortable illness on anyone.

One thing that I believe may have saved me from getting worse respiratory symptoms is the fact that I consistently took Sudafed, used Afrin nasal spray (3 sprays in each nostril, 3 days at a time and then 3 days off), and used a Neti pot (with purified water). This could have kept my sinuses clear and prevented the symptoms from spreading to my lungs. This is not medical advice: I’m simply sharing what I did and correlating it with the fact that I had no respiratory symptoms. The two could be entirely unrelated based on the viral strain and viral load that I received.

I hope this information helps someone avoid getting sick and/or push to get tested sooner rather than later so you know to isolate before it gets worse or to get medical care if you have respiratory distress. Hand washing doesn’t guarantee you won’t get sick, especially when folks without symptoms are contagious and could be standing right next to you in any given social situation. You more likely than not will not die, but do you want to risk spreading it to a loved one over 60 or someone with an immunity issue? Stay healthy folks!

[Amber G.]

Have not been following posts here...
Few updates:
- Form physician friends, in Bay Area - finally hearing more and more physicians are able to get their patient's tested.
Other states still not so good.
- Pence/Trump's promises of "any one who needs testing can get it done now", "1.5 million test kits" 15,000 test kist getting ready right now" etc it not working out that well. (No one is giving any official figures -when doctors and other officials on the front line are asking)
- 15,000 test kits (which are good for about 700 test samples) - resulted in (according to CDC's own records, I am told, 47 tests by the end of last Sunday.

Things I hope becomes as better.

India - at present has turn-around time for PCR tests as low as few hours. (US it is still few days)
Germany and South Korea has drive in checking/tests..
Canada - If you go to ER, you automatically get throat swab for Flu and Covid-19

****
Here is Covid-19 cases in US on each Tuesday for last few Tuesday's.
Jan. 14 — 0
Jan. 21 — 1
Jan. 28 — 5
Feb. 4 — 11
Feb. 11 — 14
Feb. 18 — 25
Feb. 25 — 59
Mar. 3 — 125
Mar. 10 — 1,004

== So by March 17 , we are going to see about 8,000
By March 24 in US alone == 60,000 Pretty scary. Unless we act fast and smart. (It could be a little better or even worse)
***

[sreerudra]

Quick note here. You do NOT need hand-sanitizers like Purel, etc. to keep the coronavirus at bay. Regular hand soap is equally good.

Hand sanitizers are mostly alcohol-based. This makes them superior to ordinary hand soap for killing bacteria. Why? Because, briefly, the exterior structures of bacteria have both lipids (fats) and protein-based structures called peptidoglycans holding them together. Alcohol denatures proteins as well as dissolves fats, hence it is better at attacking both components of the outer envelope of bacteria than hand soap.

Viruses like COVID do NOT have peptidoglycans. Their outer membranes depend entirely on associations between molecules of lipids (fats) to remain intact.

Hand soap is a detergent that is meant to do EXACTLY what is needed to kill the virus: disrupt association between lipids, dissolving the membrane and killing the virus.

As long as you wash your hands thoroughly enough you do not need liquid sanitizers. Just use soap and you will be fine.

Good to know. Posting elsewhere!

[chola]

Thanks.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... oronavirus



Somebody should tell the Chinese tigers and rhinoceros' contain far deadlier germs.
I think consumption of cats, dogs, snakes, reptiles and a whole bunch of other things must be banned.

Tell me about it. They just eat anything and use the same god damned microwave that stinks the whole afternoon on the entire office floor.. I for one stopped using the microwave in the office.

Microwaved cat smells the worst.

[Amber G.]

FWIW - I was asked to provide input (along with a few other scientists) to do a write-up to provide help in putting some specific recommendations to be passed on the the authorities. (Mainly things which other countries have done (successfully) and may be of help in US but have not come to light yet). It does not hurt to ask here -- If there are any links/write ups/ specially ones that which has not gotten too much publicity, and be new, let me know. (Please tag me if you are replying)
****

BTW -
- Soap and water for covid-19 is much more efficient (they say some thing to do with this type of virus) - much more than hand sanitizer.
- If you are in US, and have symptoms and want to get tested, being a little assertive is very helpful. Hope things improve fast but at present it wont hurt to do be a little pushy if your symptoms are serious. But do all that by phone unless it is necessary to visit the doctor. (you may like to get other tests done anyway like flu testing etc, if you are sick -- but do all the waiting etc in your car and visit the facilities only when needed)

[chola]

Wuhan vlog (from a gori expat) posted five days ago.

Can't leave apartment complex unless you are shopping. They arrest people for walking outside "for no reason." A mall that was always packed is completely abandoned. Almost completely empty.

Wuhan still looks like the stereotypical zombie apocalypse.

If this is the only way you can stop the virus then it is economic armageddon.


With Italy in lockdown and French, German, US cases rising, this is the beginning of a global recession.

Civic Infra has top notch design implementation and maintenance... and Wuhan is a second tier city I believe. We need to up our game... the shoddy quality of our city infrastructure needs radical overhaul

Top notch infra spreads the disease that much faster. I wrote elsewhere: nothing more scary than a paleolithic primitives butchering and eating bats, civet cats and pangolins with first world road, rail and air connections. lol

[nvishal]

Some people who have returned to india via a layover at doha/dubai airports have tested positive. Strange cases.

Qatar just reported a 300+ rise in cases in one day, up from some ~25 a day earlier.

Avoid these two airports.

[saip]

My sis (physician) works part time at a major NY hospital. She says not enough test kits to test even if she needs to be tested. She is considering staying home. Face Book extended work from home to April 10.

[rgosain]

I am thinking aloud here but is there anyway the so called international community can bill China for all the loss of life and infections , disruption, quarantines. For the past 20 years we have been inundated with sars, h5n1, n1n1, avian flu, bat flu , and now this.
I am sure that countries can impose tariffs and duties on trade from the PRC to pay for this, and if it encourages the Indian pharma companies to restore the manufacture of API and reagents for Crispr and pcr then even better

[nam]

One thing that surprises me is how difficult is to produce self testing kit for this virus? If it spread through droplets, have a kit designed to test the droplets!

People who seem to have symptoms don't know if it is regular fly or corona? This is causing the medical infra to be overwhelmed, with people requesting a test.

If there was a self test kit, people could just buy and do the test themselves. Quarantined themselves, if positive. People who have underlying health issue or older aged can inform the hospital.

People coming in through airports could also self test, instead of replying on just temperature check. They could also test themselves, even if they don't have symptoms, allowing earlier detection.

The current process has created a bottleneck.

[ranjan.rao]

Have not been following posts here...

Here is Covid-19 cases in US on each Tuesday for last few Tuesday's.
Jan. 14 — 0
Jan. 21 — 1
Jan. 28 — 5
Feb. 4 — 11
Feb. 11 — 14
Feb. 18 — 25
Feb. 25 — 59
Mar. 3 — 125
Mar. 10 — 1,004

== So by March 17 , we are going to see about 8,000
By March 24 in US alone == 60,000 Pretty scary. Unless we act fast and smart. (It could be a little better or even worse)
***

sir where did you get these nos. from?

I checked the numbers from CDC site here
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... #epi-curve
my cumulative no. adds to 350 by March 10 and 278 by march 3.
There may be a different way of calculation. But curious to understand how did you get 1000

[rgosain]

Yeah I think this was flagged earlier regarding the selectivity and specificity of any assay, and the difficulty in getting a suitable level of precision

[srin]

Quick note here. You do NOT need hand-sanitizers like Purel, etc. to keep the coronavirus at bay. Regular hand soap is equally good.

Hand sanitizers are mostly alcohol-based. This makes them superior to ordinary hand soap for killing bacteria. Why? Because, briefly, the exterior structures of bacteria have both lipids (fats) and protein-based structures called peptidoglycans holding them together. Alcohol denatures proteins as well as dissolves fats, hence it is better at attacking both components of the outer envelope of bacteria than hand soap.

Viruses like COVID do NOT have peptidoglycans. Their outer membranes depend entirely on associations between molecules of lipids (fats) to remain intact.

Hand soap is a detergent that is meant to do EXACTLY what is needed to kill the virus: disrupt association between lipids, dissolving the membrane and killing the virus.

As long as you wash your hands thoroughly enough you do not need liquid sanitizers. Just use soap and you will be fine.

BTW -
- Soap and water for covid-19 is much more efficient (they say some thing to do with this type of virus) - much more than hand sanitizer.

From the article below ... soaps and sanitizers work differently.
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/han ... ronavirus/

Hand sanitizer is essentially isopropyl alcohol, plus gel, plus fun-smelling essential oils if you’re so inclined. At first, hospitals and other healthcare centers used the solution as a quick fix for doctors who didn’t necessarily have a second to go to the restroom to disinfect between patients.

The way sanitizer works is primarily through the power of alcohol. Alcohol can “murder” many types of bacteria and viruses by destroying their outermost layer, rendering them unable to take over a host. This isn’t effective with viruses with a hard outer shell, like norovirus. Still, in a pinch, it’ll keep you protected from a lot of the invisible gunk you might pick up on mass transportation or a public restroom.

Here is an infographic (not able to embed inline): https://twitter.com/PopSci/status/12359 ... 68/photo/1

Soaps on the other hand ...

Soap works a little differently. Instead of killing viruses and bacteria, its purpose is to lift away dirt, oil, and other dangerous agents that get on your hands. Sanitizer doesn’t remove anything: It only disinfects bacteria and viruses and can leave pesticides or spores on your hands.

Washing away the coronavirus might not sound as violent as stopping it dead in its tracks, but it’s proven to be more effective, especially for pathogens wrapped up in mucus.

“There isn’t anything where the alcohol is really better than effective hand washing,” says Preeti Malani, a medical professor focused on infectious disease at the University of Michigan.

[srin]

I'm concerned about the spread in US. I came back to desh last week after 2 weeks in the Khan-dom, including Bay area (including RSA Conf) and Mid-West.

There was nothing in US, if you exclude the hand sanitizer at the United checkin kiosks.
OTOH, entering India, there was the typical form filling but two levels of checks, one a forehead thermometer and two, IR camera and then, an interview by a medical officer on where I'd travelled etc. At that time, they were mostly bothered about East Asian countries, Italy and Iran.

That said, I don't know how any amount of sanitizer can help if, at the security check, one has to keep bags, electronics and jackets in the same bin where you keep your shoes !

Self-update: After a couple of people at the RSA conference (major cybersec expo, with 36K visitors this year and typically around 50K each year) contracted Coronavirus, the HR has asked all of us who participated there to WFH.

[sanjaykumar]

A summary of the question of mathematical models, for those with an interest.

https://academic.oup.com/bmb/article/62/1/187/281114

And another

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 6515000948

[Bart S]

The hand sanitizer vs soap debate is missing the basic point. I think most people are well aware by now that handwashing is effective. But unless you can carry around a wash basin you still need hand sanitizers as a stop-gap when outside.

[SwamyG]

Quick note here. You do NOT need hand-sanitizers like Purel, etc. to keep the coronavirus at bay. Regular hand soap is equally good.

Hand sanitizers are mostly alcohol-based. This makes them superior to ordinary hand soap for killing bacteria. Why? Because, briefly, the exterior structures of bacteria have both lipids (fats) and protein-based structures called peptidoglycans holding them together. Alcohol denatures proteins as well as dissolves fats, hence it is better at attacking both components of the outer envelope of bacteria than hand soap.

Viruses like COVID do NOT have peptidoglycans. Their outer membranes depend entirely on associations between molecules of lipids (fats) to remain intact.

Hand soap is a detergent that is meant to do EXACTLY what is needed to kill the virus: disrupt association between lipids, dissolving the membrane and killing the virus.

As long as you wash your hands thoroughly enough you do not need liquid sanitizers. Just use soap and you will be fine.

Permit to circulate this, saar?

[SwamyG]

Masks are not helpful. I was talking to my doctor; he said it is not going to work with the ordinary masks. Eyes are not covered. Special masks are required. This virus does not just hang out in a cloud like formation, the droplets from cough/sneeze tend to fall down after travelling 5-6 feet.

[Amber G.]

Have not been following posts here...

Here is Covid-19 cases in US on each Tuesday for last few Tuesday's.
Jan. 14 — 0
<snip>
Mar. 10 — 1,004

<snip>

my cumulative no. adds to 350 by March 10 and 278 by march 3.
There may be a different way of calculation. But curious to understand how did you get 1000

[/quote]
Ranjan - Data is correct - just check any site (including your own cdc).. again. Worldometer or even wiki is a good resource..eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... es#January..

But as I said, any reputable site will do. USA is showing 1283 around this time. (March 11)

Point is: This growth shows that that on March 17 the figure comes out to be about 8000 for US, Let us see how good or bad this number is.

[rsingh]

It seems Belgium has more than 200 Covid 19 infections. Schools are closing down. Right now I am at hospital. Hand sanitisers are missing (used to be standard for each bed). Number of visitors is regulated. US is about to cancel all flights from Oerope.

[Amber G.]

where did you get these nos. from?

I am collecting data (see my post before) from many sources just for my interest.... automatic download and renormalization as different data sources store it different format. Worldometer, Lancet, cdc, who all have good sites where one can see the data in real time. (Some sites share their data in data base form for research purposes)

Data for South Korea, Singapore etc is quite good and reliable and has much finer details .. some places not so much.

[SwamyG]

Have not been following posts here...
Few updates:
- Form physician friends, in Bay Area - finally hearing more and more physicians are able to get their patient's tested.
Other states still not so good.
- Pence/Trump's promises of "any one who needs testing can get it done now", "1.5 million test kits" 15,000 test kist getting ready right now" etc it not working out that well. (No one is giving any official figures -when doctors and other officials on the front line are asking)
- 15,000 test kits (which are good for about 700 test samples) - resulted in (according to CDC's own records, I am told, 47 tests by the end of last Sunday.
***

In my state, they are not testing....unless one has a high fever or can prove one was in contact with a confirmed case. That is the talk, cannot verify though.

[IndraD]

https://theanaesthesia.blog/2020/03/09/ ... ssion=true
this article gives an insight into cumulative experiences gathered from China & Italy and the possible course ahead.

The UK COVID-19 epidemic: time to plan and time to act

R0 2–3 people
Ascertainment rate 10–25%
Attack rate 30–60%
Hospitalisation 12%
Symptoms
Mild 80%
Severe 15%
Critical 2–10%
Mortality 3.5%
Incubation Up to 14 days
Most infective time 1–14 days

[g.sarkar]

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/co ... 020-03-11/
Coronavirus updates: WHO declares outbreak is now a pandemic
UPDATED ON: MARCH 11, 2020
The World Health Organization declared Wednesday that the coronavirus outbreak spreading around the globe can now be characterized as a pandemic. WHO Director Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the WHO is "deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity" of the outbreak.
"All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response," he said.
The declaration came as the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States continued to rise. Delays at the federal level have left many state and local health authorities racing to catch up, with backlogs of people waiting to be tested for the COVID-19 disease.
.....
Gautam

[Cain Marko]

Ehji? Japan just reported it's biggest spike yet. Don't see how they are past the worst.

Where are you getting that from? Japan had its biggest spike of 149 daily cases on Feb. 16, 105 on Feb. 17, 96 & 91 respectively on Feb. 19 and Feb. 20, and 73 on Feb. 25. Since then, they've been mostly under 30 cases per day. Their total number of cases (~1200) is like 2/3rds of what Italy is reporting in a day right now. And a total to date of 16 deaths.

I honestly don't know what's going to happen when the lockdown in China eases.

I was referring to this (from yesterday):
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... y-rise-nhk
And this today:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/asia/cor ... index.html

It seems new cases are still coming up in China. IT seems like Michael Osterholm has a point.

[saip]

Real concern is that there are not many being tested. Today Italy reported 2300 additional cases. So what is going happen when we really testing in the US? Jump of cases by hundreds or even thousands. Scary.

[Cain Marko]

But as I said, any reputable site will do. USA is showing 1283 around this time. (March 11)
Point is: This growth shows that that on March 17 the figure comes out to be about 8000 for US, Let us see how good or bad this number is.

The jump from March 7-8 to March 10 was insane - went straight from 386 cases to about 1000. One understands that this spreads easy - like the flu, perhaps easier. But it is the fatality rate that is a real scare. If this spreads as much as the flu (from the ongoing season), we'll have up to 50 million cases, but instead of having about 25-50K fatalities, that number could be 1-2 million deaths! Not a joke. And thats just the US.

A vaccine is needed for this, pronto.

[SandeepA]

pooch to the Gurus -
Why is CovID considered a temperate weather virus while MERS which is also a coronavirus was rampant in middle east countries like Saudi? What do we know about COVID that tells us it wont be as heat tolerant as MERS?

[nachiket]

Some of these jumps in recorded cases in some countries (including the US) are due to those countries increasing the number of tests conducted. In the US it is taking so long to get sufficient testing kits that I'd be very surprised if the currently reported number is not much lower than the actual number of people infected.

Also, people who get relatively mild symptoms may not go to the doctor and may not get tested.

[SwamyG]

pooch to the Gurus -
Why is CovID considered a temperate weather virus while MERS which is also a coronavirus was rampant in middle east countries like Saudi? What do we know about COVID that tells us it wont be as heat tolerant as MERS?

The temperature thing is more of a hypothesis, IIRC.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3550308

Abstract
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11OC and 47-79% humidity). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. We have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

[Cain Marko]

pooch to the Gurus -
Why is CovID considered a temperate weather virus while MERS which is also a coronavirus was rampant in middle east countries like Saudi? What do we know about COVID that tells us it wont be as heat tolerant as MERS?

No Guru but AFAIK - nothing! There is little reason to believe that warm weather will get rid of it - Singapore for example has had a number of cases. Even if the weather does work, can we be sure that it won't pop up once it cools again by next Fall?

[vera_k]

FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.

[SwamyG]

FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.

Flu like symptoms are pretty much common during this time. Cold, cough etc run though my household most of the time. Flu shots or not.

[Amber G.]

FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.

Goes without saying that you should talk to your doctors but a few comments - ask you doctors and check - but this is what doctors I know are saying..
- Most cases are mild (2 weeks or so) IF this is CV.
- Now since red tape is going to go away, hope fully testing can be done. There is antibody testing which can detect even if one is "recovered". Technically this could soon be available in US (one version developed in US medical school) because it is already used in other countries like Singapore. This may help isolating contacts etc.
- There are tests (like liver functions) which this virus effects and can help doctors diagnose it (For serious cases, CT scan etc are very helpful but some routine things doctors do in testing can help.

****
For others who are waiting for tests - hearing more and more doctors (specially in the Bay area) are able to get many of their patients tested. It might still be a good idea to be a little pushy.

There will be drive in testing in US but it may still take some weeks - now the red tape is improving.

***

[Amber G.]

About Temperature thing:
Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case.

From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick.

I do see, (and others are seeing this too) strong correlation - how fast it spreads. For example doubling time is about 4 days for Europe (colder places) it is much higher ( about 21 days).. It is difficult to analyze the data as we have to filter the data according to "where caught" .. As data is sparse -- even I am not taking it that seriously but posting here in brf -- I am keeping my eyes open if there are papers or study on this.

[Cain Marko]

About Temperature thing:
Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case.

From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick.

I do see, (and others are seeing this too) strong correlation - how fast it spreads. For example doubling time is about 4 days for Europe (colder places) it is much higher ( about 21 days).. It is difficult to analyze the data as we have to filter the data according to "where caught" .. As data is sparse -- even I am not taking it that seriously but posting here in brf -- I am keeping my eyes open if there are papers or study on this.

Amberji, we would appreciate it if you continue to keep us BRFites in the loop in terms of what you are learning from your research. Stay safe!

[Cain Marko]

Just an FYI - for folks who might be interested based on personal experience with seasonal flu etc.
- Manuka honey is really useful - even during the infection. mixed in with turmeric and cinnamon - 50:25:25
- Homeopathic Arsenicum Album is highly recommended
- Vaidya from desh tells us that Giloy + Tulsi + Neem (Arogya vati by Patanjali) should be helpful to the immune system
- Using ghee or coconut to line your nasal membranes can be very effective in preventing airborne diseases

[Mort Walker]

Goes without saying that you should talk to your doctors but a few comments - ask you doctors and check - but this is what doctors I know are saying..
- Most cases are mild (2 weeks or so) IF this is CV.
- Now since red tape is going to go away, hope fully testing can be done. There is antibody testing which can detect even if one is "recovered". Technically this could soon be available in US (one version developed in US medical school) because it is already used in other countries like Singapore. This may help isolating contacts etc.
- There are tests (like liver functions) which this virus effects and can help doctors diagnose it (For serious cases, CT scan etc are very helpful but some routine things doctors do in testing can help.

****
For others who are waiting for tests - hearing more and more doctors (specially in the Bay area) are able to get many of their patients tested. It might still be a good idea to be a little pushy.

There will be drive in testing in US but it may still take some weeks - now the red tape is improving.

***

From what I understand the testing will be done by local municipal/county health depts. Results could take up to 4 days. The question is, are they using a PCR method for testing or is it looking for the pathogen like various flu swab tests?

[Amber G.]

FWIW, we are in the Seattle area and *may* have caught this late Jan. No way to confirm for sure. All adults in the household got sick (mild fever, body ache) for 3 days while children were completely unaffected (which is atypical). Also, one of my daughters is a young adult, and while she was affected it was far less than us middle aged folks. There was minimal runny nose - we usually go through boxes of Kleenex, but not for this one.

Flu like symptoms are pretty much common during this time. Cold, cough etc run though my household most of the time. Flu shots or not.

FWIW: Heard from many doctors (and also read from reputable sources) that "runny nose" or itchy eyes are typical allergies and Flu - Covid-19's case there is noticeably very little runny nose but more cough, fever and fatigue are to be watched for.
***
Meanwhile Cleveland Clinic is tweeting that as soon as they got "okay" they are ready to ship kits which gives test result in 8 hours.
***
Another advice: For most young people it is mild (or even not that noticeable), but they should still be very careful because they may infect elders where the case will not be mild.