So it's game, set and match to 11 and the PRC who were celebrating victory the other day, but, exactly who are the vanquished. In the cold calculas, the PRC have emerged victorious with their key industries, population centres, and administration in place with even greater central control. For a collateral loss of 4000, the PRC have rendered the financial economies, civil societies, industrial and healthcare sectors of the west, SK and any potential emerging challenger into the dirt, and set them back decadesManish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER
@brfharbans:
Assume in 3 years 70% of the worlds population will be infected with #coronavirus. At an average fatality rate of 4 %e it would mean in 3 years the virus will wipe out 224 million people. at a 50% infected rate it will wipe out 112 million people. Is this correct?
https://twitter.com/brfharbans/status/1 ... 76992?s=19
In tropical and subtropical areas of the planet, wet markets sell live mammals, poultry, fish, and reptiles, crammed together and sharing their breath, their blood, and their excrement. As US National Public Radio journalist Jason Beaubien recently reported: “Live fish in open tubs splash water all over the floor. The countertops of the stalls are red with blood as fish are gutted and filleted right in front of the customers' eyes. Live turtles and crustaceans climb over each other in boxes. Melting ice adds to the slush on the floor. There’s lots of water, blood, fish scales, and chicken guts.” Wet markets, indeed.
Scientists tell us that keeping different animals in close, prolonged proximity with one another and with people creates an unhealthy environment that is the probable source of the mutation that enabled COVID-19 to infect humans. More precisely, in such an environment, a coronavirus long present in some animals underwent rapid mutation as it changed from nonhuman host to nonhuman host, and ultimately gained the ability to bind to human cell receptors, thus adapting to the human host.
This evidence prompted China, on January 26, to impose a temporary ban on wildlife animal trade. It is not the first time that such a measure has been introduced in response to an epidemic. Following the SARS outbreak China prohibited the breeding, transport, and sale of civets and other wild animals, but the ban was lifted six months later.
Oban or Taliskar not good enough? My favourite is Glenroths. Every evening is going to be special from now on.disha wrote:My experiences with Rhinovirus and Flu virii:Sanju wrote:...hot water regularly as dry throats are a magnet for Virus. To that, I have started having Ginger Tea and Gooseberry (called Naseberry in here) more than my usual, increased Turmeric Powder Garlic...
1. Zinc lozenges help. The downside is that they will make you flatulent.
2. Turmeric+Ginger+Pepper+Cinnamon+Oil/Ghee in warm water or Almond Milk -> this is the ultimate. Take sips and keep your throats inside coated with it.
3. Scotch+hot water -> Lagavulin + cinnamon + pepper in hot water is the best.
4. Wash hands. Wash hands. Wash hands.
5. Do not step into the kitchen if you can.
6. Use disposable & compostable kitchenware if possible. For example, lunch served in banana leaf, idlis made and served in jackfruit leaf, use hands or bamboo spoons.
7. Learn to drink water without touching the lips.
8. Go high on vegetables.
Go vegetarian or Vegan. It is the meat-eating habits of humans that are causing these issues in the first place. Good for the earth, good for you, good for society.
In short, follow Brahmanical or Jain or Hindu practices. Survive and later rant on them on twitter or other social platforms to prove how liberal and secular you are and for putting you through all of the above efforts. Particularly going vegetarian.
Stop panicking. This is not rabies that will kill you. This is not Cholera or Typhoid or Dysentry or Polio. This is not ebola or hantavirus.
And try to understand your inner atman. Pray, that you do not end up being a baki or a commie in the next life.
Regarding testing., And why would everybody want to be tested? I have an itchy-scratchy throat, lets run and get ourselves tested. Do you realize the livelock problem? That is while you are being tested, somebody is *not* being tested. And that somebody might be actively spreading the Wuhan virus to the very persons you care about.
In S. Korea, Patient 31 driven by Christ's gift to mankind started sharing the gift and she infected whole districts. Similarly, we have a family that is redeemed from sin and was happily spreading the disease.
People from such high-risk areas require first access to tests. Not from a remote part of Barmer or even from Trivandrum who may not even be in close contact with people from pardoned-off-their sins who visited italy.
One of the cases in Kerala is a person aged 96. Wow, that is advanced age. But statistically, one such casualty and the newspapers can start another round of panic and say #Blow2Mudi
And by the time you have read the above post (assuming 1 minute), Three (3) deaths would have occurred worldwide. (@1.6 million deaths world wide in traffic related accidents).
There are more factors at play than that.Cain Marko wrote:^^^not to mention that Soko has a larger elderly population than most. I guess isolation and quarantine are the most effective...
Describes every single fish market I've been to in Mumbai. Except instead of live fish, they are mostly dead.IndraD wrote:“Live fish in open tubs splash water all over the floor. The countertops of the stalls are red with blood as fish are gutted and filleted right in front of the customers' eyes. Live turtles and crustaceans climb over each other in boxes. Melting ice adds to the slush on the floor. There’s lots of water, blood, fish scales, and chicken guts.” Wet markets, indeed.
None of these are necessarily a problem. Humans have been eating this stuff for millenia and survived and thrived, probably immune to most pathogens associated with 'well known' animal/fish food sources and have remedies for those that slip though (like salmonella or helminths). The problem is the Chinese with their penchant for eating wild animals (often endangered ones like pangolins).nachiket wrote:Describes every single fish market I've been to in Mumbai. Except instead of live fish, they are mostly dead.IndraD wrote:“Live fish in open tubs splash water all over the floor. The countertops of the stalls are red with blood as fish are gutted and filleted right in front of the customers' eyes. Live turtles and crustaceans climb over each other in boxes. Melting ice adds to the slush on the floor. There’s lots of water, blood, fish scales, and chicken guts.” Wet markets, indeed.
Nah it's nothing like wet market which is filled with exotic wild creatures as well. Everything from ferret to peacock, and eel to centipedes. The most I've seen in Mumbai are fish, crustaceans, and poultry, the latter and mutton shops being in different sections of the market. Out of all these only the poultry and crabs are alive. I'm not sure that's the case in wet markets.. Though I could be wrong.nachiket wrote:Describes every single fish market I've been to in Mumbai. Except instead of live fish, they are mostly dead.IndraD wrote:“Live fish in open tubs splash water all over the floor. The countertops of the stalls are red with blood as fish are gutted and filleted right in front of the customers' eyes. Live turtles and crustaceans climb over each other in boxes. Melting ice adds to the slush on the floor. There’s lots of water, blood, fish scales, and chicken guts.” Wet markets, indeed.
Thanks for that information... Had no idea. But those are important factors to keep in mind. Obviously it's not apples to apples when it comes to the US.DavidD wrote:There are more factors at play than that.Cain Marko wrote:^^^not to mention that Soko has a larger elderly population than most. I guess isolation and quarantine are the most effective...
1) SK was exceptionally well prepared as they had literally just ran a national pandemic drill in December in response to recent SARS and MERS outbreaks. This made their pandemic response in all aspects, not just testing and quarantine, exceptionally efficient.
2) Most of their infected are within one Christian branch. This branch predominantly recruit the young so SK has an exceptionally high percentage of 20 or 30 somethings infected. The young tend to do well so mortality is lower.
3) Due to #1, SK was able to start widespread testing very quickly, allowing them to catch a lot of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases. This expands the denominator and makes the calculated mortality rate lower.
TOI doesn't allow to copy/paste. Please read it on their site.NEW DELHI: The number of confirmed Covid-19 patients in Indiia rose to 74 on Thursday with 57 Indians and 17 foreigners ..
NATUREAcute cardiac injury
Reports suggest that the Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) can cause acute myocarditis and heart failure5. SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV have similar pathogenicity, and the myocardial damage caused by infection with these viruses undoubtedly increases the difficulty and complexity of patient treatment. Myocardial injury associated with the SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 5 of the first 41 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Wuhan, which mainly manifested as an increase in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) levels (>28 pg/ml)3. In this study, four of five patients with myocardial injury were admitted to the intensive-care unit (ICU), which indicates the serious nature of the myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19. Blood-pressure levels were significantly higher in patients treated in the ICU than in those not treated in the ICU (mean systolic blood pressure 145 mmHg versus 122 mmHg; P < 0.001)3. In another report of 138 patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, 36 patients with severe symptoms were treated in the ICU1. The levels of biomarkers of myocardial injury were significantly higher in patients treated in the ICU than in those not treated in the ICU (median creatine kinase (CK)-MB level 18 U/l versus 14 U/l, P < 0.001; hs-cTnI level 11.0 pg/ml versus 5.1 pg/ml, P = 0.004), suggesting that patients with severe symptoms often have complications involving acute myocardial injury1. In addition, among the confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by the National Health Commission of China (NHC), some of the patients first went to see a doctor because of cardiovascular symptoms. The patients presented with heart palpitations and chest tightness rather than with respiratory symptoms, such as fever and cough, but were later diagnosed with COVID-19. Among the people who died from COVID-19 reported by the NHC, 11.8% of patients without underlying CVD had substantial heart damage, with elevated levels of cTnI or cardiac arrest during hospitalization. Therefore, in patients with COVID-19, the incidence of cardiovascular symptoms is high, owing to the systemic inflammatory response and immune system disorders during disease progression.
The mechanism of acute myocardial injury caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection might be related to ACE2. ACE2 is widely expressed not only in the lungs but also in the cardiovascular system and, therefore, ACE2-related signalling pathways might also have a role in heart injury. Other proposed mechanisms of myocardial injury include a cytokine storm triggered by an imbalanced response by type 1 and type 2 T helper cells3,6, and respiratory dysfunction and hypoxaemia caused by COVID-19, resulting in damage to myocardial cells.
Chronic cardiovascular damage
A 12-year follow-up survey of 25 patients who recovered from SARS-CoV infection found that 68% had hyperlipidaemia, 44% had cardiovascular system abnormalities and 60% had glucose metabolism disorders7. Metabolomics analysis revealed that lipid metabolism was dysregulated in patients with a history of SARS-CoV infection. In these patients, the serum concentrations of free fatty acids, lysophosphatidylcholine, lysophosphatidylethanolamine and phosphatidylglycerol were significantly increased compared with individuals without a history of SARS-CoV infection7. However, the mechanisms by which SARS-CoV infection leads to disorders of lipid and glucose metabolism are still uncertain. Given that SARS-CoV-2 has a similar structure to SARS-CoV, this novel virus might also cause chronic damage to the cardiovascular system, and attention should be given to cardiovascular protection during treatment for COVID-19.
Patients with pre-existing CVD
A meta-analysis showed that MERS-CoV infection was more likely to occur in patients with underlying CVD8. In patients with MERS-CoV infection and severe symptoms, 50% had hypertension and diabetes and up to 30% had heart disease. Similarly, according to the Pneumonitis Diagnosis and Treatment Program for New Coronavirus Infection (Trial Version 4), elderly people with comorbidities are more likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, especially those with hypertension, coronary heart disease or diabetes. Furthermore, patients with CVD are more likely to develop severe symptoms if infected with SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, patients with CVD account for a large proportion of deaths from COVID-19. In one study, among the patients with severe symptoms of COVID-19, 58% had hypertension, 25% had heart disease and 44% had arrhythmia1. According to mortality data released by the NHC, 35% of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection had a history of hypertension and 17% had a history of coronary heart disease. Furthermore, data show that patients aged >60 years who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 had more systemic symptoms and more severe pneumonia than patients aged ≤60 years9. Therefore, in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, underlying CVD can aggravate the pneumonia and increase the severity of symptoms.
Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 often have a poor prognosis. In patients with ACS, cardiac functional reserve can be reduced owing to myocardial ischaemia or necrosis. When infected with SARS-CoV-2, cardiac insufficiency is more likely to occur, leading to a sudden deterioration in the condition of these patients. Some of the patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan had previous ACS, which was associated with severe illness and high mortality. For patients with cardiac insufficiency who have underlying heart disease, SARS-CoV-2 infection might act as a precipitating factor to worsen the condition and lead to death.
Drug-related heart damage during COVID-19 treatment is a concern. In particular, the use of antiviral drugs should be monitored. In a study of 138 patients with COVID-19, 89.9% were given antiviral drugs1. However, many antiviral drugs can cause cardiac insufficiency, arrhythmia or other cardiovascular disorders. Therefore, during treatment of COVID-19, especially with the use of antivirals, the risk of cardiac toxicity must be closely monitored.
Lived in Columbus over a decade, fond memories.Amber G. wrote:I am quite happy with Ohio's handling. It is much better than the "advanced" states like some in the west (or the east) coast. Have to thank our Governors leadership.
- There is nice network (24/7 telephone resource center) to obtain help. Very good website, e-mail reach. So we know what is open and what is not.
- Smart 911 now gives alert about Covid-19 too.
- Once got okay from Washington - there are testing centers coming where one can just go and get tested. Some are coming up in a day or so, quite a few within a week.
- Much less panic (yes there is plenty of toilet paper, Basmati rice, even hand sanitizers - most stores now restrict them that you only buy reasonable quantity). Much calmer than some other parts of US where I live part-time.
Thanks. The models seem to be simple. They are for vaccination. What other models are there which take into account mixing, i.e. carriers moving around over a geographical area or on a graph?sanjaykumar wrote:A summary of the question of mathematical models, for those with an interest.
https://academic.oup.com/bmb/article/62/1/187/281114 ...
Surgical masks are helpful in that people who are asymptomatic do not infect others in the community. They also work within the family. It is a good idea to wear one of somebody is suffering from flu or even cold. Sometime there is no time to cover one's mouth with inner elbow while sneezing.SwamyG wrote:Masks are not helpful. I was talking to my doctor; he said it is not going to work with the ordinary masks. Eyes are not covered. Special masks are required. This virus does not just hang out in a cloud like formation, the droplets from cough/sneeze tend to fall down after travelling 5-6 feet.
Yes, but the mortality rate would go down (or up?) and stabilize. Is it 3% or is it 1% or is it as low as 0.1%? Time only will tell. Also if the social distance plus good hygiene works out, the numbers Amber G. posted can be an overestimate (or so I hope).saip wrote:Real concern is that there are not many being tested. Today Italy reported 2300 additional cases. So what is going happen when we really testing in the US? Jump of cases by hundreds or even thousands. Scary.
Next fall is more than 12 months away. More will be known about the virus by then.Cain Marko wrote:Even if the weather does work, can we be sure that it won't pop up once it cools again by next Fall?
Singapore and HK are only supporting evidence. But India is the main reason to have hopes in this theory. Vietnam and Phlippines seems to be largely unaffected too, both having nice warm temperatures right now.agupta wrote:hanumadu wrote:,,,
Perhaps there is some credence to temperature theory. Currently, singapore and Hongkong have both temperatures greater than many places in India. Perhaps, that is the reason they are able to control the virus effectively and the initial cases could be through contact spreading.
Wishful thinking. There is no scientific evidence or reasoning for this (yet). I hope fervently its true, but hope is not reason for credence right ?
SGP and HK had, and executed very well, on pandemic handling protocols. It's as simple as that. Easier of course for them than for a large country... but it takes will, skill and resources and they had/used all of it. Ditto for SK.
Italian mortality rate is really high. Have a feeling because of the number of elderly there.Vayutuvan wrote:Yes, but the mortality rate would go down (or up?) and stabilize. Is it 3% or is it 1% or is it as low as 0.1%? Time only will tell. Also if the social distance plus good hygiene works out, the numbers Amber G. posted can be an overestimate (or so I hope).saip wrote:Real concern is that there are not many being tested. Today Italy reported 2300 additional cases. So what is going happen when we really testing in the US? Jump of cases by hundreds or even thousands. Scary.
How so? Next fall will be in September no? Wonlee 6 months away.Vayutuvan wrote: Next fall is more than 12 months away. More will be known about the virus by then.
What is the survivability of the virus in higher temperature is the question that needs to be answered. Once somebody is infected, that is different matter. Higher the temperature higher and more violent the vibrations which make the tertiary structure of the virus get out of the local minimum and go into a nearby minimum. That different fold might make it less potent or even harmless.Amber G. wrote:About Temperature thing:
Jury is still out - We don't even know if CV will behave like other corona virus and we don't know much about other types in any case.
From what I have read/heard etc - there is no (or very little) evidence that temperature has much effect once you become sick.
Oh, you meant this fall. Still, more will be known, right?Cain Marko wrote: How so? Next fall will be in September no? Wonlee 6 months away.
Reason is not obvious to me.sanjaykumar wrote:It is in fact not necessary to test for this virus except for epidemiological purposes. The reason should be obvious.
Is it because there is cure and there is also no vaccine as yet?If you are employed, work with your corporate office on securing a supply of masks from 3M.Vayutuvan wrote:Problem is that Amazxon has run out US made masks. All masks that are in stock are made in China and are being shipped from China. Lot of people are waiting (as per the reviews) for over a month for the masks to come in.
No. Since we are talking just stats, old will die quickly thus making space for newer cases.kvraghav wrote:Shouldn't this be the other way around?
They should choose the old since they have the most chances of fatality. This might explain why Italy has such high mortality rate.
Yes but I work from home all the time. I have been out of home only three times in the last fortnight and I live in that part of the US where it is quite sparsely populated.vera_k wrote:If you are employed, work with your corporate office on securing a supply of masks from 3M.
A certain amount of dose of the virus is required to get infected. That is what I read about HIV. I don't know (I am very poor in biology or related areas) whether that would hold true for CV as well. Moreover, ambient conditions might also be a factor. A large contingent of the viral colony might die off in the first few hours. Temperature effects on the virii are not known yet. I wonder why they didn;t include that in this study.Primus wrote:All good things. However, the cynic in me says if you are going to get it, nothing will stop it. Remember, the virus lives on solid surfaces for up to 3 days as was shown in the study quoted here.
Alcohol is dehydrating.rsingh wrote: Oban or Taliskar not good enough? My favourite is Glenroths. Every evening is going to be special from now on.
More will certainly be known but will that be enough to arrest the spread? Well find out. The Ohio number is not at all promising..... And I have a suspicion based on the variety of symptoms being thrown about in the States that the spread is already quite wide. A number of folks have probly just dismissed it as seasonal cold/flu. Esp. In kids.Vayutuvan wrote:Oh, you meant this fall. Still, more will be known, right?Cain Marko wrote: How so? Next fall will be in September no? Wonlee 6 months away.