Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 14 Mar 2020 08:37

The herd immunity approach adopted in Britain and perhaps the US (although that place seems chaotic at this time), does not mean 'let the old people die'.

It means sequester the older population; do not visit them, leave food at their doorstep, maintain social links via social media, or the telephone. Do not write letters or send postcards. Drop off their medications, again at their doorstep. Do not let grandchildren near them.

In the meantime expose the less medically vulnerable, more biologically competent hosts to acquire the infection and develop humoral resistance or perhaps cellular immunity. Eradicate the virus as its R0 now drops precipitously.

Of course there will be deaths, even in younger people, perhaps from the so called cytokine storm, but with hopefully the vulnerable no longer swamping health facilities, there may be more resources to treat these other patients.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 14 Mar 2020 08:38

sudarshan wrote:
<snip>
Ji, you of all people (no offence, I mean that in the best possible way) should know the pitfalls of these kinds of calculations.
<snip>
.

Sudarshanji -I suggest that move your that message to Math dhaga . Here is the rational:

- I or some body else can point out what you may be missing in the math part. Of course, you can also consult any good text book for these type of calculations, I am pretty sure you will find your errors)..

In short the math I used is correct. Please note that we are NOT predicting future (no one know the exact numbers now). We were just teaching the math part - Assuming one has a *constant* doubling time of 4 days what is the expected numbers of cases will be. This is simple math, (with simple assumption - math modeling, if you will- yet many aam adami do not understand the exponential growth.

Any way look at the numbers in my post from CDC. They are pretty close to what was in the slide I posted.
(They are also consistent to Ohio's governors posted number)
(You are welcome to post reputable numbers but let us move the debate in Math dhaga).

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 14 Mar 2020 08:50

hanumadu- Am digesting Amber.G's post but just to comment here.... my point is that one cannot assume that temperatures will help. Maybe the data may show heat does not affect it much, in which case and people have to be more careful, and a China-scale ICU bed creation may be needed.

At large:
it is not an either/or situation. GOI can do both simultaneously- social isolation and testing of virus' survivabilty (Which is done by govt virology labs anyway who would not be in charge of social lockdown etc). If it turns out that the virus is not susceptible to heat, that should come out quickly. If true, I am thinking every major city in India will be looking at tens of thousands of ICU cases- this is my real concern. I've seen no news of preparing more ICU beds. With the population density of Indian cities, this number is not unrealistic.

Amber.G,
Good to know some data exists. Lab experiments and mathematical modeling of physics may be the more reliable way (IMVHO), atleast here, the input conditions are known.....with statistical models, there might be too many variables some of which might be unknown. I dont know what statistics could be collected other than # of infected and the severity of each case (And of course, when the case was detected). Am not knowledgeabe in this area, so it is IMVHO only

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 14 Mar 2020 08:56

Guys, any update since yesterday. At least in desh, except for the lady who died in Delhi from virus which was yesterday, nothing new today. Which is good news.

Amber GJi question for saar. Given that of all those with virus, at least some %ge will show symptoms within a few days, can we conclude from this that as of a week ago, no significant %ge of people have been infected with the virus? In other words, with alll these travel restrictions and other social distance measures in place should rapidly bring the situation under control and we should see normalcy within a month or so? And more importantly, all these dire predictions about millions dying will not pan out?

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 14 Mar 2020 08:57

Spain reported 2,086 new cases of coronavirus on Friday and 66 new deaths, raising the country's total to 5,232 cases and 133 dead.

France reports 785 new cases and 18 new deaths; total confirmed cases reach 3,661 and 79 dead.

Governor Cuomo of New York reports 96 new cases in the state, 59 of them in NYC; total confirmed cases reaches 491 statewide.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 14 Mar 2020 09:06

sanjaykumar wrote:The herd immunity approach adopted in Britain and perhaps the US (although that place seems chaotic at this time), does not mean 'let the old people die'.

It means sequester the older population; do not visit them, leave food at their doorstep, maintain social links via social media, or the telephone. Do not write letters or send postcards. Drop off their medications, again at their doorstep. Do not let grandchildren near them.

In the meantime expose the less medically vulnerable, more biologically competent hosts to acquire the infection and develop humoral resistance or perhaps cellular immunity. Eradicate the virus as its R0 now drops precipitously.

Of course there will be deaths, even in younger people, perhaps from the so called cytokine storm, but with hopefully the vulnerable no longer swamping health facilities, there may be more resources to treat these other patients.

That seems reasonable, and also pretty practical to implement in most cases. Trouble is with the psychological effects. Older people crave social contact, especially with the younger generation. They will also need constant reassurance that they aren't being permanently isolated with this pretext. Maybe with skype and other face-time applications, it will be a lot better for them. Cramming them together also defeats the purpose of disease control. It becomes more like an old-age home, minus the young care-givers. Like a modern-day vanvaas.

Plus the risks of the younger folks thinking "hey, that was great, locking those <don't want to use some hurtful term here> away - we should do that more often!"

AmberG ji, no issues with the correctness of the math, just with the question of sustainability of that initial high growth rate. I can repost in the math thread a little later.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Mar 2020 09:24

It is depressing to read Amber G's posts :-(, but what to do....truth is truth. Math is math. I pray and hope, things start to plateau sooner than later.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Mar 2020 09:27

"India has around a 30-day window to halt the beginning of c ..

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... ppst"India has around a 30-day window to halt the beginning of c ..

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Mar 2020 09:28

SriKumar: even if the government labs find that the virus weakens in warm weather, it needs to be careful with that information . As it is, people are being incredibly complacent or outright reckless in their behavior . This is clearly not a high trust situation and therefore the government must be careful about releasing information that breeds further complacency.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 14 Mar 2020 09:31

Chinese are inveterate smokers, possibly contributing to susceptibility. Again data are lacking. Hope Italians release data on smoking and risk. Anyway might be good to warn Indians of cigs and beedis in preparation for the coming storm. Even a few days or weeks may improve lung toilet and function.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 14 Mar 2020 09:40

The problem with those mathematical models is the simplistic assumption that R0 is a constant. Consider the case where 20% of the population is dead and 80% are immune. Is R0 still the same as at the beginning of the pandemic?

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Mar 2020 09:49

sanjaykumar wrote:Chinese are inveterate smokers, possibly contributing to susceptibility. Again data are lacking.

This is indeed the case and ostrrholm mentions it. It's seens the high mortality rate amongst Chinese men past 65 is strongly correlated to the fact that they are big smokers and therefore have compromised respiratory systems. Otoh the women in the same group fare much better since they don't smoke much.

Which makes one wonder how it will impact the obesity ridden population of the US. The young may not smoke tobacco but drug abuse and compromised immune systems are very common.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 14 Mar 2020 09:53

Who is osstrholm?

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Mar 2020 10:12

SwamyG wrote:"India has around a 30-day window to halt the beginning of c ..

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... ppst"India has around a 30-day window to halt the beginning of c ..

India has a 30 day window to halt the beginning of community transmission. So, we are still expecting it to be community transmitted in India at some point. The only way to stop it seems to be a much stricter or probably near impossible social distancing. It all seems so inevitable.

F*(k the chinese.

What would change in 30 days that it would be community transmitted then? Could it be that a critical mass of infections would be required for community transmission? If people keep escaping from isolation, it might happen much sooner than 30 days.

Dr R R Gangakhedkar, the chief epidemiologist at ICMR, said only those with symptoms of Covid-19 were being tested as present. "Everyone with flu symptoms
doesn't need to get tested because the spread of the disease is limited at present. Even among those with travel history or possible contact with an infected individual,
testing is advised only if he or she has symptoms of Covid-19. This is because if the test is conducted in asymptomatic individual the viral load is likely to be less and
that may result in false negative results. Such individual may get a false sense of security and continue to spread the disease," he said. ICMR scientists said the
advisory on testing may be changed if there is enough evidence of Covid-19 reaching stage III.
Coronavirus outbreak: Complete coverage
"At ICMR, we have a network of 106 virus research and diagnostic laboratories (VRDLs) across the country. We get samples of influenza like illnesses (ILIs) and
severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) regularly. Between February 15 and February 29, we asked 13 of these labs to take 20 random samples and test them for
Covid-19 to see if the novel coronavirus had spread in the community as well. All samples tested negative. The exercise will be repeated on March 15 to assess
whether community transmission is happening or not. Depending on the findings, further action will be taken on guidelines for testing," the ICMR chief said.
But does India have enough testing kits to scale up diagnosis if Covid-19 spreads exponentially, affecting communities or takes to epidemic proportions? Bhargava
said in terms of testing capacity the available labs are underutilised at present. "The 51 labs for designated for testing Covid-19 swab samples are capable of
conducting 4,590 tests daily. At present, we are getting only about 60 to 70 samples per day. So, at present, the labs are heavily underutilised. In future, if the demand
increases, we have made arrangements to ensure the lab network can expand soon enough to handle the situation," the ICMR director general said.
"There are over 57 sample collection centres where this is being done at present. These can easily be expanded. For testing, we require two key chemical agents, the
primer and the probe. Primer can be prepared locally while probes we have to buy. The ICMR lab network has one lakh probes available and additional two lakh
probes are being procured. We have also been approached by major international companies who have prepared the tests kits and are willing to supply them too.
Based on the validation of their claims for testing and the need, we will procure more chemical agents and kits to ensure that there is no dearth of testing facility,"
Bhargava said. ICMR experts said they were not thinking about private labs and hospitals for testing yet. "We will think about that if and when the need arises," they
said.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 14 Mar 2020 10:35

Oligonucleotide probes not synthesized in India??

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Mar 2020 11:17

A piece of sh*t google employee was tested positive in bangalore. He hand his wife were quarantined in their house in bangalore. The lady escaped from their house and travelled by air and then train to agra and stayed with her family with 8 other members.
House quarantine is really dependent on people showing some common sense.

The kerala family which mingled with nearly a 1000 people, they are all being told to house quarantine themselves. Wonder how effective it is. They should be told in no uncertain terms that any body breaks the quarantine is liable for murder charges.
I wonder what their status is now. It's been 4 or five days since they have been exposed to the family. Are any of them showing signs of infection?

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 14 Mar 2020 11:17

SwamyG wrote:Why does Russia have low numbers?

They are putting a lid on it just like China
There are several infections but are being reported as pneumonia

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Mar 2020 11:29

hanumadu wrote:A piece of sh*t google employee was tested positive in bangalore. He hand his wife were quarantined in their house in bangalore. The lady escaped from their house and travelled by air and then train to agra and stayed with her family with 8 other members.
House quarantine is really dependent on people showing some common sense.

The kerala family which mingled with nearly a 1000 people, they are all being told to house quarantine themselves. Wonder how effective it is. They should be told in no uncertain terms that any body breaks the quarantine is liable for murder charges.
I wonder what their status is now. It's been 4 or five days since they have been exposed to the family. Are any of them showing signs of infection?

At the least, all involved - incl the google guy and the lady's father (railway employee, who lied to the cops) should be sacked. Prosecution can come later.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 14 Mar 2020 11:38

COVID 19 and Italy- what next?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 14 Mar 2020 11:40

Meanwhile: This tweet from a former FBI special agent has become viral:

If you can’t find groceries, make friends with Indian-Americans. Like literally just show up at their house and they’ll feed you.
(Of course, one should add - follow the customs of taking off your shoes, and wash your hands

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 14 Mar 2020 11:47

Sharing a tweet from Dr Scott Gottlieb, who was former director of FDA. The thread he suggests is indeed very good and worth reading. <click on the link below and read the whole thread>

Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
Trevor Bedford offered some of the most careful analysis of this pandemic from very beginning. His estimates on the emerging epidemic in U.S. should be taken very seriously. We have a very hard spring ahead of us in this country and must rapidly implement aggressive mitigation.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Mar 2020 13:09

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1238696299618164737?s=20

ANI
@ANI
Nagpur: 5 #COVID19 suspects escaped from isolation ward of Mayo Hospital. S Suryavanshi, Sub-Inspector Nagpur police station says, "One of them had tested negative, reports of other 4 were awaited. We have traced them & they will be brought back to hospital by the administration"

Please retweet this tweet to @narendramodi @rajnathsingh @amitshah asking for strict action and to frame murder charges against such people. Perhaps all people in quarantine should be handcuffed or chained?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 14 Mar 2020 13:14

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/worl ... heory.html
China Spins Tale That the U.S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic
After criticizing American officials for politicizing the pandemic, Chinese officials and news outlets have floated unfounded theories that the United States was the source of the virus.
By Steven Lee Myers, Updated March 14, 2020.
BEIJING — China is pushing a new theory about the origins of the coronavirus: It is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October.
There is not a shred of evidence to support that, but the notion received an official endorsement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whose spokesman accused American officials of not coming clean about what they know about the disease.
The intentional spreading of an unfounded conspiracy theory — which recirculated on China’s tightly controlled internet on Friday — punctuated a downward spiral in relations between the two countries that has been fueled by the basest instincts of officials on both sides.
The insinuation came in a series of posts on Twitter by Zhao Lijian, a ministry spokesman who has made good use of the platform, which is blocked in China, to push a newly aggressive, and hawkish, diplomatic strategy. It is most likely intended to deflect attention from China’s own missteps in the early weeks of the epidemic by sowing confusion or, at least, uncertainty at home and abroad.
Mr. Zhao’s posts appeared to be a retort to similarly unsubstantiated theories about the origins of the outbreak that have spread in the United States. Senior officials there have called the epidemic the “Wuhan virus,” and at least one senator hinted darkly that the epidemic began with the leak of a Chinese biological weapon. “The conspiracy theories are a new, low front in what they clearly perceive as a global competition over the narrative of this crisis,” said Julian B. Gewirtz, a scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard.
.....
Gautam

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 14 Mar 2020 13:36

sanjaykumar wrote:Who is osstrholm?

Michael Osterholm - sorry about the typo.
https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne ... ases-fears

Watch the Joe Rogan interview, quite interesting.

According to him, cases double every 4 days. Dunno for how long though.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Mar 2020 13:36

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

83 cases at 9 am IST. 14th march. One more than from 10 PM last night.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 14 Mar 2020 13:46

Too many news items about people escaping quarantine in India and potentially coming in contact with hundreds of others. Section 3 of Epidemic Act needs to be invoked to prosecute and jail these people. All of the good work done by the government to contain the spread could be undermined by these morons. An announcement to that effect needs to be made to deter anyone else thinking of doing this.

Our healthcare system is really not set up to handle an Italy-like situation. Absolutely essential we check it before it gets bad. Perhaps armed guards outside hospital isolation wards and quarantine centers are necessary now.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 14 Mar 2020 15:05

SwamyG wrote:Why does Russia have low numbers?

They started to isolate possible carriers (Chinese) at very early stage. Drivers of public transport were instructed to spot any Chinese looking passenger.
Seriously , it has to do high carb diet of Russians and Nordic population. Lots of potatoes and dairy products. Yachminaya Kasha ( it taste like millet) is staple food for Ruskies.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 14 Mar 2020 15:25

Frankly am skeptical of many graphics on this thread. There are lots of variables like diet, temperature, geographical location, traditions of population, competence of authorities and technological know how.

rrao · Post by **rrao** » 14 Mar 2020 15:43

How to handle parcels containing electronic components which are packed in anti static bags and then put in card board boxes. These parcels are sent by fedex and transited through various countries package handling centers. Do they pose any threat of contamination ? Fedex customer care has no clue
when contacted over toll free no....what is to be done under these circumstances....

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 14 Mar 2020 16:52

The inhaled corticosteroid ciclesonide blocks coronavirus RNA replication by targeting viral NSP15
Shutoku Matsuyama, Miyuki Kawase, Naganori Nao, Kazuya Shirato, Makoto Ujike, Wataru Kamitani, Masayuki Shimojima, Shuetsu Fukushi

Abstract

Steroid compounds, which are expected to have dual functions in blocking host inflammation and MERS-CoV replication, were screened from a chemical library. Within this library, ciclesonide, an inhaled corticosteroid, suppressed human coronavirus replication in cultured cells, but did not suppress replication of respiratory syncytial virus or influenza virus. The effective concentration of ciclesonide to block SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) replication (EC90) was 6.3 μM. After the eleventh consecutive MERS-CoV passage in the presence of ciclesonide, a resistant mutation was generated, which resulted in an amino acid substitution (A25V) in nonstructural protein (NSP) 15, as identified using reverse genetics. A recombinant virus with the mutation was also resistant to ciclesonide suppression of viral replication. These observations suggest that the effect of ciclesonide was specific to coronavirus, suggesting this is a candidate drug for treatment of patients suffering MERS or COVID-19.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 14 Mar 2020 17:44

1. Clearly the Wuhan virus can survive temperatures up to 37-38 degees centigrade. The human body is 36.x C (98.4 F) and fevered humans are 1-2 degees Centigrade warmer. So, there have to be other conditions that kill it at those temperatures, like lack of moisture etc.

2.
rrao:
If those packages belong to your employer, dont touch them or otherwise handle them. It is not your headache if they cannot provide you with guidance. IF they insist, and you get sick, tell them that you will come to their office first and shake their hands; and larter come to their house for treatment and convalescence. I am serious- make sure they understand you will phyically contact them. The package surfaces may be fine, but the person delivering it may not be.

If they are your personal packages, evaluate whether you need to get the work done rightaway or can it wait. One particular study said that it lasts 4 hours on a cardboard. In a few weeks, I expect more studies to come out which will confirm or deny these studies, including guidance on their survivability on plastic surfaces.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 14 Mar 2020 18:02

Iran reports 1,365 new cases of coronavirus and 97 new deaths, raising total to 12,729 cases and 611 dead.

Iran’s Rouhani warns media, seeks to suppress coronavirus coverage.

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 Mar 2020 18:21

sooraj wrote:Iran reports 1,365 new cases of coronavirus and 97 new deaths, raising total to 12,729 cases and 611 dead.

The death rate in Iran and Italy are the worst by far. Especially in contrast to Germany.

Hopefully the US tracks Germany and Korea instead of Italy and Iran. But Italians and Iranians (Parsees) are closer to desis genetically than Germanics and Sinids. I told my Chinese-American wife to be ready to carry on as a single mom since young women and kids are practically immune. lol

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Mar 2020 19:49

https://futurism.com/neoscope/weather-c ... warm-study

In a moment when the world seems more desperate than ever for the slightest ray of hope, here’s some (literally) sunny news:

Warm weather has been correlated with a slowdown in the spread of COVID-19.

The paper comes from a squad of data scientists and economists at Beijing schools Tsinghua University and Beihang University, using data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, related to 4,711 confirmed cases of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

The scientists looked to see what those cases’ contact was like with other patients. Then — using a great deal of sophisticated statistical analysis and modeling, trend growth curves, weather stations, and contact tracing among patients who have had COVID-19 — they came to this conclusion:

“High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. […] This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.”

It’s important to note here that, first, the word is “indicates.” This is a data analysis and by no means a definitive piece of work. Next: We’re not talking about warm weather killing coronavirus (per the currently available information we have: it doesn’t). Or stopping it from spreading (it won’t).

But, and finally: It appears it will slow the spread.

While this might sound like little consolation, it should be. You’re going to hear a lot in the next few weeks about “flattening the curve.” Long story short: We need to slow this thing down to make sure that the highest possible number of us will get medical treatment if we need it. Slowing the spread (or “flattening the curve”) is critical to ensuring that various global health care systems aren’t overburdened by a taxing surge of serious to critical cases of COVID-19.

Warm weather will help us do that here in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few months. In the Southern Hemisphere, the oncoming colder weather looks to mean easier transmission is coming that way. Here’s hoping those places least effected by COVID-19 over the last few months have heeded the lessons and warnings facing those of us on the other side of the globe, and are readying themselves for this.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 14 Mar 2020 20:02

UMSOM Virologists Use Weather Modeling Data To Predict Potential Spread And Seasonality For COVID-19

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/umsom-vir ... r-covid-19

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 14 Mar 2020 20:04

There is lot of half info and downright false info on this thread. First there is nothing wrong with amber Gs math. His math and models are correct. This disease, we still do not have enough info about. This is a ongoing dynamic situation.The infection does spread very rapidly as he said theoretically in geometric proportion. Of course every country and every person is taking actions and therefore that model is just theoretical but it does tell you if nothing is done what can happen. Biology is not like math 1 and 1 in medicine can sometime mean 2 or 11 or zero or 0.5. Life is exraordinarily dynamic and does not easily fall into mathemetical models but math is still extremely important in medicine. The coming revolution in artificial intelligence with regards to medicine will be based on mathmetical models except that the algos are still to be worked out.

So please take his info in the right way . His sources are the ones I am also following. Follow what Dr Fauci and Dr scott gottlieb are saying.

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Mar 2020 20:11

Suresh S, everyone is NOT a 'he' especially Amber G.

johb · Post by **johb** » 14 Mar 2020 20:13

Potential Cure?

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/st ... 2020-03-14

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 14 Mar 2020 20:14

Than my apologies

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 Mar 2020 20:24

saip wrote:Suresh S, everyone is NOT a 'he' especially Amber G.

Let's just say he's a he and end it there. In the US, the mortality rate is around 2% including the cluster of old folk homes in Washington state. I would be expecting from places like NYC and Philadelphia to see higher mortality rates. We haven't seen that yet. We don't know how well this virus lives in warmer temperatures. In India we will see how much more this virus spreads, but authorities there have taken early quarantine measures.