Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

jpremnath wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:For folks who dont understand tamil

1. The video camera holder is saying that the queue stretches all the way to food near police station

2. The video date seems to be March 27th based on comments

3. Dharavi has a lot of tamil migrants who are workers


In the bigger scheme of things MH,MP,KL and WB last seem to be the stragglers in dealing with the situation. This is just my constant tv news surfing anecdotal opinion
Kerala has actually turned a corner...The number of new cases per day are in low double digits like 12 and 13 for two days...And most importantly the recovered cases outnumber the new ones...Which means the curve has flattened and we will soon see a negative growth. But I would still wait for a few more days to make that claim..

What worries me is the graph of indias cases which is actually just shooting up and gives no indication of flattening out while even US, UK and Spain shows a marginal cooling of their curve. The fact that such a crippling lock down is not putting a break on the case growth doesn't bode well in the weeks to come..
How much of the graph is due to the late discovery of the idiots from the Tabligh?

I am very happy at the news about Kerala improving. Every state matters - Maharashtra still seems to be problematic, and no news from WB?
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

About PPE - we are at 40% availability right now, per GOI calculations. Shipments have begun to key states affected most, as a priority.
The situation will gradually improve through April and May.

Body suits/ masks
To give an understanding about the scale of effort, we are buying tens of lakhs of suits from suppliers with stocks from abroad whereas, the DRDO has opened up licensing for its tech to any supplier in India. Dr Reddy even held a conference with some 300 firms to have them ramp up. DRDO's N95/N99 masks are in mass production at 2 suppliers, its PPE (Mk1/Mk2 - latter likely with the new glue) are in production in another bunch of firms. A pvt firm also stepped up and came up with an alternate source for PRC sourced fabrics, material. This was done through Feb, with ministry of textiles as the nodal GOI org. This too was cleared by DRDO/SITARA and has gone into mass production. They have also enabled OFB and Railway factories to make PPE so they can supply in parallel. The more expensive, capable, rewashable CBRN suits are also in production for army etc. So if Army dips into WWR for support, they will be available.

Face shields
DRDO labs and pvt suppliers are making face shields en masse using 3D printing. Mahindra is as well.

Sanitizers:
Labs are putting out mass supplies of sanitizers. DRDO and pvt sector both have significant capacity.

Ventilators - Jyoti CNC was the surprise factor, came out of nowhere, and have a basic design ready and in production. Folks from Gujarat say its very well respected and credible. I would like to see more details, if anyone finds them about the product, please post.
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/12466029 ... vt-2206358
That apart, DRDO and Skanrays design is to enter ramp up by May, for an eventual production capacity of 100,000 units per month. To speed up decision making, cut red-tape, boost capacity Piyush Goyal gave BEL an order for 30K units - which they will do for SkanRay.
Agva's design is be made at Maruti, similary, 10k orders. Agva was having parts issues, a GOI tech board stepped up with funding and GOI also offered airlift.
Meanwhile, we are placing a 10k order for units w/PRC.
Goyal also informed the desi ventilator makers to have their suppliers ship components to a central location, so that IAF could airlift them in one go.

There is a multi-dimensional fight going on. Yes, we should have started earlier. But now that we have, we are doing the right things.

And after this episode - we will have all-Indian capability for PPE, APIs, ventilators.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

Turks have recently discovered that HCQ is the most effective cure against COVID-19. <<ROTFL>>

Am watching their procurement plans.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

Looks like HCQ+Azithromycin+Zinc is the best defence and works well when used at early onset of symptoms. Dr.Ratnadip and other doctors in India any updated anecdotal inputs from you. In the US the CNN and other idiots politicized it so much that even before trying Doctors(few of them) are saying Trump is this and that and CNN said this so am not going to try it. Reminds me of a statement that the quality of physics being taught by say a serial killer is not diminished by the fact that the said teacher is a serial killer.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

pankajs wrote:Turks have recently discovered that HCQ is the most effective cure against COVID-19. <<ROTFL>>

Am watching their procurement plans.
Tell scum Erodgan and to come and stay for few weeks in free Kashmir UT along with TJs and take HCQ ... :rotfl:
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Some information about the ventilators GM is building. Some part of it is made in India.

The ‘incredibly challenging’ ventilator effort by Ventec, GM
“GM literally sent people there that night to India to get boots on the ground to help us get that factory opened,” Kiple said Monday as the Project V venture between Ventec and GM continued feverishly. “It changed the conversation. We had to work with the government (in India), we had to work with GM. We had to understand what the issues were to get the factory back open.”
Kaivalya
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kaivalya »

Deans wrote:
jpremnath wrote:Yes, but at the current rate of cases doubling every 4 days we will cross 50,000 well within 2 weeks.
At the current rate (6000 cases & 600 per day) we are doubling every 10 days - not 4.
Even the 600 cases/day has a significant contribution from TJ. (without it we are at 300/ day). I think the impact of TJ is largely over.

The remaining (300/day) figure can increase because of a larger base (more opportunities to infect) but should reduce due to:
- Lockdown is now starting to have an impact
- Kerala, Bhilwara etc are showing how it can be contained. They have flattened the curve and will soon have a reducing no of active cases.
- Faster testing, better contact tracing, faster hospital procedures and local lock-down (all this becomes better with experience)
- Onset of summer.

X factors: If Mumbai becomes the next New York, or another TJ equivalent in WB, which may be hiding cases.

Back of envelope : I'm looking at a reduction in no of new cases, by 14th April. A trend continuing till month end.
By end April, daily recovering cases should be more than new cases, leading to an overall fall in active cases.
Deansji - agreed ...Just a nitpick. There are still 500 TJs missing from the grid. I worry they are in TN ( goremint is still playing hide and seek ; today's count 90% TJ related in TN like last 6 days), WB, KL, Delhi or MH. Every other state government has hardened the stance. The Maulana is still missing and giving statements thanks to kujiliwal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

Not verified ..

https://twitter.com/_siva_k/status/1248049730791165952
Siva @_siva_k

District wise representation of cases. Perhaps only the affected can be placed on lockdown, restrictions can be removed/eased in other places?
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sajo »

Just read in the regional news outlets that Pune has 6 more deaths due to the Chinese Virus. That takes the total to 24, with a majority in the last 48 hours.
With 24 deaths to 211 infections (again, regional news as source), the mortality here is ~11.5% , death rate in Pune seems to be over ten times higher than the rest of the world.
What is Pune doing wrong that other cities arent? A universal comorbidity mentioned when this was being published in the news was hypertension. Is it because HCQ does not work too well with those on BP meds?
Dr. Ratnadip/others, any insights?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

Big orange patches across Andhra Pradesh districts in the map above. Can anyone please shed some light on what's going on?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by anmol »

sajo wrote:What is Pune doing wrong that other cities arent?
24 staffers of Inamdar hospital quarantined as deceased patient’s samples test infected
ByPune Mirror | Updated: Apr 9, 2020, 06:00 IST

Cardiac patient’s samples sent to NIV after she succumbed to symptoms within few hours; employees of another hospital where Hadapsar resident was first taken also asked to quarantine themselves

Close on the heels of similar alarming cases in other cities like Mumbai, a huge number of medical staffers from a single hospital in Pune have been quarantined, after samples taken from a deceased patient — brought in for a completely different ailment — tested positive for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The development sparks serious concerns about measures and personal protective equipment (PPE) for frontline workers amid the pandemic.

As many as 24 hospital employees of Inamdar Multispeciality Hospital in Wanawadi, including eight doctors, were quarantined on Wednesday. This was after they were all exposed to a 57-year-old woman from Sayyadnagar in Hadapsar, a cardiac patient, who was brought to the hospital around 11 am on Tuesday in an emergency situation and succumbed to her symptoms less than a couple of hours later.

After her death, as per protocol, her samples were sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV) — these tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday.

The woman had complained of breathlessness around 9.30 pm on Monday, and was first rushed to a private hospital in her area. From there, she was referred to Inamdar hospital, where she arrived in a critical condition.
Probably this has something to do with the fact that NIV is in pune, and hospitals in the city are following this protocol?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by anmol »

809 new cases account to https://www.covid19india.org/ :(

Image
DrRatnadip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by DrRatnadip »

suryag wrote:Looks like HCQ+Azithromycin+Zinc is the best defence and works well when used at early onset of symptoms. Dr.Ratnadip and other doctors in India any updated anecdotal inputs from you. In the US the CNN and other idiots politicized it so much that even before trying Doctors(few of them) are saying Trump is this and that and CNN said this so am not going to try it. Reminds me of a statement that the quality of physics being taught by say a serial killer is not diminished by the fact that the said teacher is a serial killer.
1) HCQ and Azee seem to work well early in disease.. Once patient detoriates NOTHING seem work.. Risk / benefit ratio is certainly in favor of using these drugs..

2) Mumbai and Pune are huge populations with proportionately big population of morons , who are not co operating with govt efforts.. We can still see people giving useless reasons for going out.. Policemen doing everything they can but stopping community spread will require much more co operation from public..

3) We should not be discouraged by increasing positive cases.. They are expected.. Especially given our huge population, people living in close proximity and purposeful ignorance of few ..

4) As we are progressing towards communiy transmission stage its increasingly clear that COVID 19 is not going to die down.. This will be long battle .. Unless we acheive herd immunity secondary waves of infection are expected even if we contain initial outbreak.. At some point it will become impossible to keep people locked inside..

5) One important goal of lockdown was to keep R0 as low as possible.. For those who don't know about it, R0 is average number of individuals infected by an infectious case during infectious period, while in totally susceptible population..
R0 is important indicator used to calculate Pc, which is proportion of persons that must be immune to reduce effective R0 bellow 1.. This will halt transmission..
Pc= 1-1/R0
R0 is high in both Mumbai and pune.. While In other parts of MH Govt is successful in keeping R0 very low.. After initial detection aggressive contact tracing and social distancing further transmission was effectively stopped..
yensoy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by yensoy »

That's over 13% increase day-on-day; a doubling period of less than 6 days. At this rate we will hit 10000 in 3-4 days, and if the trend continues so will the lockdown I am afraid.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Testing: Status Update 09 April 2020 9:00 PM IST
A total of 1,44,910 samples from 1,30,792 individuals have been tested as on 09 April 2020, 9 PM
IST. 5705 individuals have been confirmed positive among suspected cases and contacts of known
positive cases in India.
Today, on 09 April 2020, till 9 PM IST, 16,002 samples have been reported. Of these, 320 were
positive for SARS-CoV-2.
JayS
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by JayS »

ICMR has published paper on its SARI patients' survelliance testing program.

Summary in the image and link to paper here - https://t.co/VAHO1nulse?amp=1

Image
JayS
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by JayS »

After a long time ICMR has published tested individuals number.
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

We need a rapid result testing kit, which can be supplied to normal clinics or even people be able to buy OTC. This will allow a quick test if the symptoms occur.

If positive, people can then get a prescription from the doctor for HCQ or anti viral drug to contain the virus growth.

Escalated cases can then be hospitalized.

By the time we have a vaccine, it would have spread through the population.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Gyan »

DrRatnadip wrote:
suryag wrote:Looks like HCQ+Azithromycin+Zinc is the best defence and works well when used at early onset of symptoms. Dr.Ratnadip and other doctors in India any updated anecdotal inputs from you. In the US the CNN and other idiots politicized it so much that even before trying Doctors(few of them) are saying Trump is this and that and CNN said this so am not going to try it. Reminds me of a statement that the quality of physics being taught by say a serial killer is not diminished by the fact that the said teacher is a serial killer.
1) HCQ and Azee seem to work well early in disease.. Once patient detoriates NOTHING seem work.. Risk / benefit ratio is certainly in favor of using these drugs..

2) Mumbai and Pune are huge populations with proportionately big population of morons , who are not co operating with govt efforts.. We can still see people giving useless reasons for going out.. Policemen doing everything they can but stopping community spread will require much more co operation from public..

3) We should not be discouraged by increasing positive cases.. They are expected.. Especially given our huge population, people living in close proximity and purposeful ignorance of few ..

4) As we are progressing towards communiy transmission stage its increasingly clear that COVID 19 is not going to die down.. This will be long battle .. Unless we acheive herd immunity secondary waves of infection are expected even if we contain initial outbreak.. At some point it will become impossible to keep people locked inside..

5) One important goal of lockdown was to keep R0 as low as possible.. For those who don't know about it, R0 is average number of individuals infected by an infectious case during infectious period, while in totally susceptible population..
R0 is important indicator used to calculate Pc, which is proportion of persons that must be immune to reduce effective R0 bellow 1.. This will halt transmission..
Pc= 1-1/R0
R0 is high in both Mumbai and pune.. While In other parts of MH Govt is successful in keeping R0 very low.. After initial detection aggressive contact tracing and social distancing further transmission was effectively stopped..

In India, we do not seem to be adding Zinc to the combination of Hydroxychloroquine & Azithromycin. Any specific Reason for that?
anmol
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by anmol »

Millions of coronavirus infections left undetected worldwide – study | News | DW

Date 08.04.2020
Researchers from a German university have said countries have only found on average about 6% of coronavirus infections. The real number of infected people globally may have already reached tens of millions of people.The total number of coronavirus infections is likely to be drastically higher than the figures officially registered by health authorities worldwide, according to a new study.Christian Bommer and Sebastian Vollmer from Göttingen University in central Germany analyzed data from a recent study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases monthly journal.

The researchers looked at the estimates of coronavirus mortality and the time from infection until death to assess the quality of official case records.

According to the German researchers, the data showed that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of all coronavirus infections. They claimed that the true total number of people infected with coronavirus may already have reached some tens of millions of people worldwide. 

"These results mean that governments and policy-makers need to exercise extreme caution when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes," said Vollmer, a Professor of Development Economics at the university.

"Such extreme differences in the amount and quality of testing carried out in different countries mean that official case records are largely uninformative and do not provide helpful information," he warned.

'Tens of millions'

Bommer and Vollmer estimated that on 31 March 2020, Germany was likely to have actually had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the US probably had more than 10 million, Spain more than 5 million, Italy around 3 million and the UK about 2 million coronavirus infections.

On the same day, the Johns Hopkins University was reporting around 900,000 formally diagnosed and confirmed cases worldwide. 

"While the Johns Hopkins data report less than a million confirmed cases globally at the moment this correspondence is written, we estimate the number of infections to be a few tens of millions," the study said.

According to the authors, inadequate and delayed testing may be the reason why some European countries, including Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty rates (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany.

They estimate that Germany has identified around 15.6% of all its cases, compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates were thought to be even lower in the US (1.6%) and the UK (1.2%). 

'Just a matter of time'

The researchers called for major improvements in the the ability of countries to detect new infections and then adopt measures for isolating infected patients and tracing contact persons.

If countries failed to do so, "the virus might remain undetected again for an extended period of time and a new outbreak is likely in just a matter of time," the authors warned. 
suryag
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

Thank you Ratnadip Sir, take care and stay healthy, definitely Lord Hanuman will protect you and other doctors on the frontline. If possible kindly answer the Zinc related followup question
anmol
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by anmol »

There are THREE separate types of coronavirus


There are three main types of the novel coronavirus infecting people, and the strains may be mutating to conquer the immune systems of populations around the world. 

The genetic history of the coronavirus was mapped from December 24 to March 4, revealing three distinct, but closely related, variants. Researchers from the University of Cambridge found the virus now seen in Wuhan, China and East Asia — ground-zero for the outbreak — is not the original variety.

Instead, this strain (known as type B) is derived from the original SARS-CoV-2 virus which jumped into humans from bats via pangolins (type A). 

Type A is the version now most prevalent in America and Australia.Another variation, called type C, descended from Wuhan's type B, and spread to Europe via Singapore.  

Scientists believe the virus may be constantly mutating to overcome differing levels of immune system resistance in different populations.  

Methods used to trace the prehistoric migration of ancient humans were adapted to track the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. 

Image
The genetic history of the coronavirus was mapped from December 24 to March 4, revealing three distinct, but closely related, variants. Scientists believe the virus may be constantly mutating to overcome differing levels of immune system resistance in different populations

Dr Peter Forster, a fellow of the McDonald Institute of Archaeological Research at Cambridge, as well as the University's Institute of Continuing Education, told MailOnline his team began tracking the genomic evolution of the virus in February, after it became evident international spread was inevitable. 

Long-establish methods refined in the 1990s to trace the migration of humans out of Africa 60,000 years ago were applied to the virus to identify its root and subsequent spread.

A total of 160 largely intact genomes of the coronavirus from the GISAID database, a German-based website, were provided to the team of researchers. 

These contained samples from many of the first cases in Europe and America.

'It allows you to look at the beginnings of the epidemic - this is the first genomic snapshot of this happening,' Dr Forster said. 

'The root of the network is not the type seen in China, which is type B. The root is Type A which is seen in America and Australia.  :eek:

'The majority of cases in Wuhan are B type while a derived C type later emerged and spread initially via Singapore.'

Type A is the closest to the one found in bats and pangolins and is considered to be the 'root' of the outbreak. 

It was found in Wuhan but was not the city's most predominant variation.  

Type A has two sub-clusters and the first, labelled as the T-allele, has substantial links to East Asia as it was found in Americans that lived in Wuhan.

However, the second A type sub-cluster, called the C-allele, is slightly different due to a string of mutations.In the study, published today in the journal PNAS, the researchers write: 'It is noteworthy that nearly half of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.' 

Image
Pictured, a breakdown of the different coronavirus genomes and to which of the three major group they belong to. The lines indicate a rough split between the type. The larger the circle, the higher the amount of cases

The study had access to 93 type B genomes and 74 were in either Wuhan (22), other parts of eastern China (31) or neighbouring Asian countries (21).

A smattering were identified elsewhere, but type B had a strong affinity for Wuhan and is derived from type A via two mutations, at T8782C and C28144T. 

However, the variant does not travel well beyond the region. Type B was found to be comfortable in the immune systems of people in Wuhan and did not need to mutate to adapt. 

However, outside of Wuhan and in the bodies of people from different locations, the variation mutated much more rapidly, indicating it was adapting to try and survive and overcome resistance. 

Dr Forster told MailOnline: 'The coronavirus mutated from type A to B and, in B form, it feels comfortable in host immune systems in East Asia and can invade it. 

'But in Europe or Australia, for example, immune history varies due to exposure to different diseases over time. 

'Type B of the virus may not thrive in hosts outside East Asia and it is possible it mutated to survive in different populations.

'We are currently analysing 1,000 more SARS-CoV-2 genomes to confirm this as the mutation rate appears to increase outside of China.' 

The 'C' variant is the 'daughter' of type B and is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England.   

It is absent from the study's Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.   

Dr Forster's latest work on more than 1,000 further genomes has not yet been published or peer-reviewed but suggests the first infection and spread among humans of COVID-19 occurred between mid-September and early December.

The scientists argue that these methods could help predict future global hot spots of disease transmission and surge.

'Phylogenetic network analysis has the potential to help identify undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to contain further spread of the disease worldwide,' said Dr Forster.  
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

yensoy wrote:That's over 13% increase day-on-day; a doubling period of less than 6 days. At this rate we will hit 10000 in 3-4 days, and if the trend continues so will the lockdown I am afraid.
More testing numbers. 16K tests.

Overall the infection rate to tested is still around 5%

I am planning to follow https://www.mohfw.gov.in/.

Crowdsource website, doesn't seem to data which are reviewed. The difference in number of deaths are around 70! I can understand positive cases, but the number of death should not have such a difference.

I find it interesting that all other country's data are from their government, but for India it is from crowd-sourced sites!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

nam wrote:
yensoy wrote:That's over 13% increase day-on-day; a doubling period of less than 6 days. At this rate we will hit 10000 in 3-4 days, and if the trend continues so will the lockdown I am afraid.
More testing numbers. 16K tests.

Overall the infection rate to tested is still around 5%

I am planning to follow https://www.mohfw.gov.in/.

Crowdsource website, doesn't seem to data which are reviewed. The difference in number of deaths are around 70! I can understand positive cases, but the number of death should not have such a difference.

I find it interesting that all other country's data are from their government, but for India it is from crowd-sourced sites!
http://covidindiaupdates.in/

This site has more details. They claim their data is from mohfw.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

According to a study New York outbreak came from Europe rather than directly from China. - CNN
So, the Chinese virus went to Europe first and from there took a flight to NY area.
I wonder if the Chinese virus came to CA and Washington directly.
So there appears different variants of the virus circulating in the USA.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

The N.Y. outbreak was from Italy if we read the news reports. It was community spread due to careless travellers who met and soread it at a very high contact rate.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

K Srinath Reddy: ‘We have to wait for two more weeks to see if the curve has flattened’
On March 30, India reported 1251 COVID19 cases and 32 deaths; in less than a week, the country has witnessed an over 200 percent spike (4,000 positive cases and 109 deaths). Keeping two factors in mind, the lockdown that began on March 25 and at least 1495 cases linked to the Tablighi Jamaat congregation in Delhi, has India’s COVID curve peaked? What are the key dates and statistics that you are looking at, that will be critical in determining if India has been able to contain the spread of pandemic after the lockdown?

The rise in numbers have to be interpreted in the context of the number of type of tests performed at different periods. They have to be comparable during the two periods. We have to wait for two weeks more to see if the rising curve has flattened or is moving down. In this large country, we will need state wise or preferably even district wise assessments, as the calendar of the epidemic and its control will vary across the country. I will look at the number of new cases per day as a fraction of the number of lab and clinical assessments performed that day, using comparable criteria for case definition. I will also look at the number of serious acute respiratory infection cases hospitalised each day. I will seek supportive information from lab based random sample surveys and household syndromic surveillance data from both rural and urban samples. The immediate impact of the lockdown can be gauged over the next two weeks but the effort to quell the epidemic has to go on longer. It is only by June that we will get a measure of our success or continuing challenge. We need to do regular assessments against the backdrop of a progressive stepwise relaxation of the lockdown.
The containment plan of the government states that in 2009, during the H1N1 Influenza pandemic it was observed that well connected big cities with substantive population movement were reporting large number of cases, whereas rural areas and smaller towns with low population densities and relatively poor road/ rail/ airway connectivity were reporting only few cases. It adds the current geographic distribution of COVID-19 mimics the distribution of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza. However, unlike 2009, India has now witnessed an unprecedented migration of labourers from cities to villages due to the lockdown. Do you agree that COVID19 will mimic H1N1 or do you think that due to the migration there will be hotspots in rural India? What will be the unique challenge, India would face, if the pandemic enters the villages?

I too believe that our large rural population will be relatively protected, if we are not lax in blocking urban to rural transmission. I have maintained, from the very beginning of our epidemic, that the large rural component and younger age of our population set us apart from the highly affected countries. I have confidence in the judgement of Dr Ravindran, Director of Emergency Medical Relief in the Health Ministry. He is a veteran who managed the response to the H1N1 epidemic and knows that pattern well. I believe that the reentry of poor migrants from urban areas in March would not have posed much threat as they were unlikely to have been exposed to returning foreign travellers or their contacts, due to the nature of their work and dwellings. However, we must now protect the villages from infection, by permitting only essential supplies and travel while ensuring availability of health and social protection services.
Germany is thinking of issuing the ‘immunity passports’ for its key workers. Using the rapid antibody testing, researchers are preparing a list of key workers, who could be sent back to the workforce. Can India also identify such regions, wherewith the help of repeated testing we can ascertain the spread of the infection in localised area, and key workers can be sent back to the workforce?

This is a good strategy. India too should try it, to permit persons with acquired immunity to return to economically or socially productive work. How extensively this strategy can be deployed depends on the availability of kits and human resources to carry out large scale testing.
yensoy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by yensoy »

anmol wrote:
Millions of coronavirus infections left undetected worldwide – study | News | DW
According to the German researchers, the data showed that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of all coronavirus infections. They claimed that the true total number of people infected with coronavirus may already have reached some tens of millions of people worldwide.
This isn't all bad news. If a much larger number of people are infected and asymptomatic, then it's likely that we will achieve herd immunity before we know it. Herd immunity is the desirable end state of this virus; it's just that everybody getting infected at the same time will lead to disaster, but people getting infected slowly over time, being asymptomatic and recovering is actually great news for humans.
pgbhat wrote:
Germany is thinking of issuing the ‘immunity passports’ for its key workers. Using the rapid antibody testing, researchers are preparing a list of key workers, who could be sent back to the workforce. Can India also identify such regions, wherewith the help of repeated testing we can ascertain the spread of the infection in localised area, and key workers can be sent back to the workforce?
This is a good strategy. India too should try it, to permit persons with acquired immunity to return to economically or socially productive work. How extensively this strategy can be deployed depends on the availability of kits and human resources to carry out large scale testing.
Great, so we will reward recovered Jamaatis with immunity passports now? :eek:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

ramana wrote:The N.Y. outbreak was from Italy if we read the news reports. It was community spread due to careless travellers who met and soread it at a very high contact rate.
I posted this on March 7 about two weeks before all hell broke loose.

You could see this trainwreck coming from a mile away.
chola wrote:
I am scared stiff of the system in the US. It's really broken when travellers from Italy are practically unscreened and not even asked to self-quarantine. Two of the three confirmed cases in Massachusetts were connected to Italy.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/06/ ... e-it-home/

Just in from Italy? Time to self-quarantine. But first, you’ve got to make it home
A light touch at Logan and other airports for travelers from one of the global hot spots for coronavirus

By Adam Vaccaro and Steve Annear Globe Staff
March 6, 2020, 5:45 p.m.

The federal government says travelers coming from Italy should self-quarantine, and keep their distance from other people. But in practice, passengers arriving at Logan International Airport and in other cities must still re-enter the country through a busy, crowded airport, with some travelling home by public transit, ride-sharing cars or shuttle services.

While Italy is one of the global hot spots for the coronavirus, and two Massachusetts residents are presumed to have the illness after returning from trips there, some passengers who disembarked from a sparsely-filled flight from Rome on Thursday said they were asked only cursory questions by customs workers at Logan International Airport.

“Like where you went, or where you had been,” said one of a group of high school students traveling home from a school trip cut short. A friend of hers said she wasn’t even asked those questions as she came through Customs.

The students, who like nearly all of the travelers who spoke with the Globe declined to give their names, said US Border and Customs Protection agents did not advise them of the self-quarantine guidance. The group of four was picked up at the airport by two of their mothers

...

The US has set harsher travel restrictions for China and Iran, also designated as Level 3 advisory countries, banning foreign nationals who have been in either country in the previous two weeks and diverting US citizens to one of 11 airports in the country with enhanced testing and screening procedures; Logan International Airport is not among them. These travelers are also subject to 14 days of health monitoring, according to government guidance.

As of Friday afternoon, Italy had more than 4,600 of the some 101,000 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus documented around the world, and at 197, the second highest death toll, after China, according to a coronavirus database maintained by Johns Hopkins University.

Flyers on the Alitalia trip to Boston Thursday estimated roughly 30 to 35 people were onboard, giving most passengers their own row to sprawl across. It included many students whose school trips or study abroad semesters had been upended by the virus; they said their respective schools contacted them about the self-quarantine and emphasized that they stay home for the full two weeks before returning, and planned to follow the guidance.

“My town is small, and I’m not going to be Patient Zero,” said Skyla Lewis, a University of South Carolina student who had been studying abroad in Florence and now planned to spend the next two weeks at home in Newbury. “I’m [feeling] fine though.”

But not everybody planned to follow the quarantine advisory. One man on the flight said he did not plan to self-quarantine.

“No, I feel perfect,” he said after emerging from the Customs section of Terminal E into the general concourse.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

There is no possible explanation except a racial one.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

https://twitter.com/netshrink/status/12 ... 1130918912
Since economists have become public health experts, let's try the reverse too.
Any stimulus has to be through the bottom of pyramid consumer. "Too small to fail" is the mantra. Tax breaks & bailouts to large cos perverse incentives to hoard more. Trickle down economics don't work
More economic suggestions from a public health professional:
1.↓GST. Impacts poor disproportionately & will boost consumption.
2. Reverse tax cuts to cos.
3.↑income tax on cos & individuals. Anyway, a low tax rate doesn't help if there is no imcome
4. Invest in public health
:mrgreen:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

yensoy wrote:
pgbhat wrote: This is a good strategy. India too should try it, to permit persons with acquired immunity to return to economically or socially productive work. How extensively this strategy can be deployed depends on the availability of kits and human resources to carry out large scale testing.
Great, so we will reward recovered Jamaatis with immunity passports now? :eek:
Are they going to be socially and economically productive? :lol:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vimal »

https://twitter.com/IsraeliPM/status/12 ... 7785119750
PM of Israel @IsraeliPM

Thank you, my dear friend @narendramodi, Prime Minister of India, for sending Chloroquine to Israel.

All the citizens of Israel thank you! Flag of IsraelFlag of India
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

Rishirishi wrote:
pankajs wrote:Another report ..

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/ph ... 00419.html

Expanded capacity should be about 70 MT with 30 MT from Zydus and the remaining 40 MT from IPCA and the rest.

1. 70 MT = 35 crore (350 million) tablets of 200 mg / Month.
2. GOI order worth 10 crore (100 million) placed with Zydus and IPCA (About 50% of the current capacity/month and 30% of the expanded capacity)
3. Sufficient to treat about 7 crore people.
4. Compare that to the US stock pile of about 29 million (2.9 crore) doses. What additional amount has the US ordered?
5. Costs about Rs 3 per tablet.

Depending on the depletion of stock GOI will obviously further increase its orders with the manufacturers.

This 6 months inventory would be based on the old demand pattern but no longer valid in the current scenario.
Can someone please clarify.
I have heard that 10 malaria tablets are given over a 3 days. But i do not know how powerfull they are. Would 350 million tabelts be sufficient to treat only 35 million people ?? I would imagine that at least 3-400 million people must be treated worldwide??
1. The figure of 10 crore tabs for 7 crore people seems to be an error by the reporter. 10 crore tabs likely are meant to serve 70 lakhs people @ 14 tabs per person.

2. 350 million tablets (Global supply ex-China) would be sufficient to treat 25 million people @ the rate of 14 tabs per person.

3. 350 million would be the expanded **monthly** production. April's supply would be sufficient for 25 million people, May's for another 25 million and so on and so forth.

4. Most infected asymptomatic people would not need it. They would get the virus, get a mild infection and get over it before they realized the need to take visit a doctor or take HCQ.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1248202482422960129
Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

PM Modi- South Korea President Moon Jae In speak; PM expressed appreciation for the "technology-based response deployed by SK for managing the crisis" & also for "facilitating supplies and transport of medical equipment being sourced by Indian companies"
#COVID
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

This 56-year-old IAS officer is the brain behind Bhilwara model of fighting Covid-19
Bhatt humbly claimed the success was no “rocket science”. “We got full cooperation from the state government. When we (at the district level) said that we need to seal the border, the government did it immediately — no questions asked,” he said.

“When we said we cannot let anyone enter the district or leave their homes within the district, the government did it immediately. The Epidemic Act was imposed immediately giving the DM all the powers to take over hospitals, hotels, etc. So, it was a joint effort,” he added.
A young IAS officer from Rajasthan said, “He has been promoted from the Rajasthan state service to the IAS… I would say he is way better than the direct recruits of the IAS.”

Collector/district magistrate is usually the second posting of an IAS officer’s career, so the average age for the post is 28-30 years. But being from the Rajasthan state service, Bhatt became DM decades into his career. He was promoted to the IAS in 2007, and is set to retire in the next four years.
The young officer quoted above continued: “It felt like Bhilwara was preparing for this kind of an eventuality over the last year or more, since Bhatt became DM. His rapport with the SP, the police, the state government, the SDMs etc. was such that everyone followed his instructions to the T.
While IAS officers selected through direct recruitment are known to have more exposure in terms of governance, Bhatt’s model of governance at the time of a pandemic is being adopted by officers across the country, said a Rajasthan service officer.

“It is a matter of pride for all state civil services and a reminder that ‘direct recruits’ and ‘promotees’ are ultimately just tags,” this officer said.
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

sanjaykumar wrote:There is no possible explanation except a racial one.
Nothing else made sense otherwise. They did such a good on Cheen. They were quick on Iran too. But Italy had the same number of cases as Iran at the time and nothing was put in place for them or anywhere else in Europe.

I tell you it was with a complete sense of dread seeing what was happening. You could literally see the epidemic coming and you were helpless.

Who wouldn't know that you could get infected from people coming in from Italy as easily as someone from China or Italy? Desis could see this and we were discussing that stuff early (that's why I have three bundles of TP in my basement) but goras didn't seem to be able to grasp this.

India handled this a thousand times better and faster. Many NRIs felt it was safer in India even then.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1248243151543795715
Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

ICMR updates its testing strategy. Says all asymptomatic direct, high risk contacts of confirmed cases to be tested. #COVID.
Image
shaun
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

Deans wrote:Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?
That's what some one pointed out before , comparing distance between Wuhan and Beijing , Shanghai nd rest of the affected world capitals ..some thing really fishy
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