India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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NRao
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 00:06

Interesting details ......... 40 minutes long.



Watch around 28 min onwards

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 12 Jun 2020 00:30

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/12 ... 5904568320
Will disengagement in 2020 look like the 2017 Doklam disengagement, which showed that China doesn’t deviate from what it has set out to attain? As soon as that standoff ended, China embarked on permanent fortifications and occupied almost the entire Doklam

I don't know why this is constantly repeated. There is no need for the Chinese to "occupy" Doklam. They already occupy it.

Unless us, the Chinese used their wit and started making money. They then used that economic and military power to nibble at the borders by getting inside Doklam. Since none of the countries could monitor these places, the Chinese had a field day.

If we were stop the Chinese, it should have been done 3-4 decades back.

Now we hold the line firmly. Just like we did at Doklam. The Chinese want to stop our infra build is precisely for this. It will help us stop their salami slicing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 12 Jun 2020 03:54

Very informative video about the locations of the multiple flashpoints and troop build up areas on the India China border/LAC from Ladakh to Tezpur. Watch from 0:00 to 5:30 and then from 20:00 to the end. The middle section 5:30 to 20:00 is just noise.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rishirishi » 12 Jun 2020 04:21

NRao wrote:Interesting details ......... 40 minutes long.
....
Watch around 28 min onwards

In this video they mention that China is staking claim on Ladakh. Does this mean entire UT ? Also would they be dreaming of Kashmir going to Pakistan and China keeping Ladakh?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 12 Jun 2020 04:58

^^^ In the past, China has staked claim over Arunachal Pradesh and also Tawang specifically because some past Dalai Lama was born there, so it is Tibet. One cannot take their nonsense seriously....look at the claims they made on marine territory around Philippines, Japan etc over the past 3 decades and recently around Vietnam. You may recall that they threatened India's oil drilling operations in Vietnam's territorial waters a couple of years ago. In a couple of decades, they will claim Ayodhya and Delhi as theirs (and name them on their maps as Ayo-ya and De Li in their typical fashion of cartographic aggression). You have to treat it as ramblings arising from delirium rather than take every pronouncement of theirs seriously. Recall that during the Dokalam circus, they sent a 15-page diplomatic note to GOI (link below) saying why Dokalam is theirs and they can build roads. It cannot get more official than that. GOI derisively responded wth a one-liner. The only thing that matters is where are their troops and how strong does India plan to hold the line. Dokalam pretty much told the Chinese of India's stance with respect to this administration.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170809021 ... 636134.pdf

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 12 Jun 2020 05:44

India desperately needs a 1000 or more long range cruise missiles, like the Tomahawk Block 2-TLAM or the Russian Kalibr M with a range of 2500km-3000km. That will ensure that any Chinese targeting of Indian population centers specially in the north and east with conventional SRBMs will be met with an Indian salvo of CMs that can reach all the way to Shanghai and Beijing. Being sub sonic cruise missiles travelling for 3-4 hours over China the losses will be significant but even if half reach their targets on the eastern Chinese seaboard it will be deterrence enough that China will not attack Indian population centers. Dibrugarh to Shanghai is about 2600 km and Dibrugarh to Beijing is about 2350 km.

I think that as far as China is concerned, nothing should be taken for granted. It is possible that the PLA and CCP believe that should Chinese missile strikes cause destruction in Indian cities and towns there will be pressure on the Indian political leadership to succumb and end the war. That lever needs to be neutralized and the best way to neutralize that is by holding Chinese population centers in their heartland also hostage to the same threat.

I was reading somewhere that the Indian Air Force was lukewarm to Nirbhay saying something to the effect that they do not know where they will use it. I do not know if that is an accurate statement. From a purely military standpoint they may be correct, but as a weapons of political coercion they are IMO invaluable and should be developed so as to be able to target the eastern Chinese seaboard from Assam.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Nihat » 12 Jun 2020 10:32

Missile strikes on civilian centres is a very far fetched scenario, given global realities and the escalation ladder from there on in.

Nonetheless, the need for a GLCM has never been more pronounced. Brahmos is a silver bullet, just like the rafale. Though, even in a short skirmish, what might matter more is how quickly we can mobilize the basics such as bmp, infantry, mortar, atgm and artillery.

I'm really delighted to see GoI pushing the accelerator on the road network along LAC. That should make this kind of nonsense impossible on the future.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Jun 2020 11:04

Nihat wrote:Missile strikes on civilian centres is a very far fetched scenario, given global realities and the escalation ladder from there on in.

Nonetheless, the need for a GLCM has never been more pronounced. Brahmos is a silver bullet, just like the rafale. Though, even in a short skirmish, what might matter more is how quickly we can mobilize the basics such as bmp, infantry, mortar, atgm and artillery.

I'm really delighted to see GoI pushing the accelerator on the road network along LAC. That should make this kind of nonsense impossible on the future.

We need even a few long air launched CMs, CMs are useful only in numbers along BMs. They can temporarily disable air defenses when the Airforce with cheaper GPS bombs can move in

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 12 Jun 2020 14:23

LRCMs are important as they can be clearly positioned as non-nuclear strike weapons at IRBM standoff ranges. IMO extremely important for India to bring major PRC locations under LRCM range for a conventional hit.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 12 Jun 2020 14:31

Forget about BM/CM, first and foremost what are our numbers on attacking a basic 100KM deep target? Where are our A2G weapons? or even Pinaka in numbers? 155MM guns? Attack choppers?

One thing you got to admire the Pak & Chinis, they take war seriously. Constantly preparing. Even if their kit is half working, they get it out there and fix them in coming years. It is better to have something in the hand, than constantly waiting for the perfect product.

Ours are in constant trails and that is then used as an excuse for imports. Politicians, MoD babus, Services, DPSU all are in constant turf war.

Thank god for the Himalayas.

Due to our messed up procurement process, we cannot create a favorable result in our favor, and have to control any escalation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 12 Jun 2020 15:20

ArjunPandit wrote:it's not over yet..
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 626/?amp=1

By Ajit K Dubey
New Delhi [India], June 11 (ANI): Even as India and China continue to discuss ways to reduce tensions in Eastern Ladakh, it is emerging that the Chinese Army has deployed its troops all along the over 4,000 kilometre-long Line of Actual Control after which India has also rushed its fighting formations to forward locations in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
India and China have been engaged in one of the biggest disputes over territory in several years after the Chinese military started building up along the Line of Actual Control in May first week along the Ladakh sector and Sikkim where they came to the Naku La area and had a face-off with the Indian troops there.
"The Chinese military has done military build-up not only just in Ladakh but also in other sectors including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh wherever it shares borders with us. The build-up includes troops and heavy weaponry which are deployed in rear positions," government sources told ANI here.
To avoid any possibility of any misadventure by the Chinese, we have rushed in our fighting formations to forward locations in all these sectors, the sources said.
The reserve brigades of a Corps with an area of responsibility including Himachal Pradesh have gone up to the Ladakh sector to provide backup and cushion to the 3 Infantry Division based in Karu there. Additional fighting formations have also been moved forward to the border locations in Himachal Pradesh where Chinese choppers had shown up in April.
In Uttarakhand also, additional troops have been deployed in the Harsil-Barahoti-Nelang Valley and other sectors as Chinese choppers had come there also before the build-up started and have been seen carrying out foot patrols.
In the Eastern sector starting from the Chicken's neck corridor, the training brigades of the Corps formations including the Sukna-based 33 Corps and Tezpur-based 4 Corps have been deployed on the front locations and a Brigade of the 17 Mountain Strike Corps is also ready for deployment, the sources said.
The Indian side has also rushed in its new ultra-light howitzers and other heavy weaponry to the forward locations for countering this build up on the other side by China.
When the Chinese build-up started, their choppers had started unusual activity at multiple locations including the Ladakh sector where they came right above the new bridge being built by the Indian Army to connect the all-important Durbuk-Shyok-DaulatBegOldie road with the Patrolling Point 14 in the Galwan area. The chopper had flown close to the Indian territory in Himachal Pradesh's Kinnaur district and Barahoti in Uttarakhand in an apparent bid to confuse the Indian side about their intentions all along the LAC.
Along the Line of Control in the Ladakh sector only, the Chinese side has deployed over 10,000 troops and heavy weaponry including tanks and long-range artillery guns and India wants that they should de-induct troops from the rear positions before, for the tensions to really end along the LAC.
India, at present, is talking to the Chinese military leadership for resolving the dispute at three sites including the Galwan area, Patrolling Point 15 (114 Brigade area) and Patrolling Point 17 (Hot Springs) at multiple levels from battalion commanders to the Corps Commander. (ANI)


Classic diversion tactic from Chinese and see the response from India. What if they attack thru Burma tomorrow? Either India or China cannot sustain a war in Tibet all across the borders. Its a classic diversion technique. My take is main attack is either in Burma or Siachen (Pak sponsored)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RajaRudra » 12 Jun 2020 15:25

symontk wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:it's not over yet..
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 626/?amp=1

By Ajit K Dubey
New Delhi [India], June 11 (ANI): Even as India and China continue to discuss ways to reduce tensions in Eastern Ladakh, it is emerging that the ..... (ANI)


Classic diversion tactic from Chinese and see the response from India. What if they attack thru Burma tomorrow? Either India or China cannot sustain a war in Tibet all across the borders. Its a classic diversion technique. My take is main attack is either in Burma or Siachen (Pak sponsored)


Highly unlikely, Even then, we can across attack across LAC and Lhasa and open another front. Indian ocean can be closed for China for atleast 5 years from the word GO

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby symontk » 12 Jun 2020 15:41

RajaRudra wrote:
symontk wrote:
Classic diversion tactic from Chinese and see the response from India. What if they attack thru Burma tomorrow? Either India or China cannot sustain a war in Tibet all across the borders. Its a classic diversion technique. My take is main attack is either in Burma or Siachen (Pak sponsored)


Highly unlikely, Even then, we can across attack across LAC and Lhasa and open another front. Indian ocean can be closed for China for atleast 5 years from the word GO


No sir, even before we get to Lhasa, our supply chains will be stretched and will be vulnerable

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 12 Jun 2020 16:00

Guys lets focus on the LAC, all these Lhasa talk can go to prospective Military scenarios thread.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kit » 12 Jun 2020 16:08

Are they aiming for Bhutan ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 12 Jun 2020 16:29

This matching man to man on the borders is a reactive exercise to prevent losses but offers no real gains.

Indian forces should have let intruding Chinese parties come several kms into our territory in a couple of areas making it seem like an oversight in our patrolling, then encircle them in a lightning move from the flanks and capture their soldiers.

I believe there are several terrain features / fingers that allow this.

Then we could have had some real talks, our MEA should summon the Chinese ambassador and demand territorial and other concessions in return for releasing captured soldiers and for keeping the whole affair out of the press.

And we would be raving oldies discovering and discussing this on BRF in 2040. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mody » 12 Jun 2020 17:18

There is no man to man matching on the border. Now, with troops being mobilised all along the eastern front, we outnumber them comfortably.
It is to show strength to the Chinese.

In case the situation escalates, I hope we have concrete set of objectives that we would want to achieve.
If the balloon does go up, I would wish the IA can capture enough territory to cut of the G-219 highway through Aksai chin. We can them negotiate to withdraw upto the Macartney-Macdonald line, if the Chinese are willing to accept that as the border, demarcate on the ground and publish maps. All claims over AP, north Sikkim would have to be withdrawn by the Chinese. I guess the Chinese were proposing this line in 1956-1959. The British had proposed this line in 1898 , though imperial China did not send any reply at the time. China at the time was perhaps being dictated by the Russians and maybe the didn't have a real idea about the details.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 12 Jun 2020 17:19

symontk wrote: Classic diversion tactic from Chinese and see the response from India. What if they attack thru Burma tomorrow? Either India or China cannot sustain a war in Tibet all across the borders. Its a classic diversion technique. My take is main attack is either in Burma or Siachen (Pak sponsored)


I think that since they are on verge of loosing face, they are doubling down so that everyone now starts assuming that there was some deeper sinister plan that they have achieved. I find it hilarious the thought process that Chinese walk over Burma to attack us. What will be Burma's position ?? Have Chinese built any infra on Burma side to mount an assault ?? Look at the map and think which route will the Chinese army take and what advantage does it offer. Also coming through Burma means that either China has abandoned it's forces in Tibet or it has pulled away every man from eastern part to make up the Burmese offensive leaving heartland defenseless. This level of shivering will lead to rofl'ing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 12 Jun 2020 18:21

The chicom plan could also be the following:

1) By causing a border ruckus and then de-escalating after a tough bargain, the Indian Govt will get a "sense of relief" and not participate in anti-China maneuvers like Hong Kong, Taiwan, WHO investigation etc. We will just "sit out", might be their surmise

2) If they do get some land as part of the land grab, that's just a bonus

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 12 Jun 2020 20:28

Sub sonic cruise missiles with piddly 300 or 400 kilo warheads are joke, Prithvi with 1000 kilo warhead mach 20 speed will do massive damage, in case lizard uses their short range BMs then we should also keep few hundred prithvi missiles for their military targets in Tibet

Main land China maybe BGRV like Shaurya missile.

Anyway our lone Subsonic cruise missile Nirbhay seems to be a distant dream still, while china has thousands of CJ-10 missiles.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AdityaM » 12 Jun 2020 20:45

while our missile tracking radars would be looking for the the threat coming from the north & east, chinese can also leverage their bases in Djibouti as well as from containers on ships on high seas. the missile threat could also be from south while we look northwards

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 12 Jun 2020 21:21

IMO, this winter, India needs to stir some s**t up with TSP & degrade their war fighting capability. Maybe take out their Air Force, the majority of their armor/artillery & their Navy.

All this can be done w/o crossing the LOC/IB (or with shallow incursions). It will make this two front situation much more sustainable.

With the Pakistani threat removed, China will not dare do this nonsense.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 21:36

PM Modi’s silence on LAC stand-off is benefiting China. India must change its script

In the current crisis, the Modi government and the military have lost credibility and the battle of perception, and have literally endorsed China’s stand.

LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 21:43


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Karna » 12 Jun 2020 22:01

NRao wrote:PM Modi’s silence on LAC stand-off is benefiting China. India must change its script

In the current crisis, the Modi government and the military have lost credibility and the battle of perception, and have literally endorsed China’s stand.

LT GEN H S PANAG (RETD)



The silence from the political leadership is deafening as compared to URI surgical strikes and Balakot Bombings. Hence the loss in the battle of perception. However, the author makes two key pts, this may last till Nov and this has happened far too often within this decade and we need to find a strategy to stop this.

What I would like to know and which has been missing is, What were the options tabled by the Author as GOC-C Northern Command or What soln the author purposes.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 12 Jun 2020 22:06

NRao wrote:

So as per this the Chinese have intruded 3km in the "Hot Springs area" also (not just finger 4-8) - where exactly is this?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Karna » 12 Jun 2020 22:08

Came across this blog write up from Rohit Vats. This was written last year.
It details out our formation, ability to defend and options to strike across LAC.

https://vatsrohit.blogspot.com/2019/07/ ... art-1.html

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 22:58

abhik wrote:So as per this the Chinese have intruded 3km in the "Hot Springs area" also (not just finger 4-8) - where exactly is this?


Try 34.30 N 78.95 E

There is an ITBP post there. And, there is a natural hot spring.

Like the area between fingers 8 and 4, so too here there is an overlap between Indian and Chinese claims. The 3 kms, per Chinese is theirs. Per India China has not crossed their claimed line and therefore not intruded into Indian territory.

But then China has laid a claim to all of Ladakh.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 12 Jun 2020 23:13


williams
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 12 Jun 2020 23:28

khan wrote:IMO, this winter, India needs to stir some s**t up with TSP & degrade their war fighting capability. Maybe take out their Air Force, the majority of their armor/artillery & their Navy.

All this can be done w/o crossing the LOC/IB (or with shallow incursions). It will make this two front situation much more sustainable.

With the Pakistani threat removed, China will not dare do this nonsense.


India will not escalate unless there is a further provocation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rohit_K » 12 Jun 2020 23:31

OT but may be of interest to some.

STEC Lowest Bidder for Delhi-Meerut RRTS’ UG Package 4

Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co. Ltd. (STEC) today emerged as the lowest bidder for constructing the 5.6 km New Ashok Nagar – Sahibabad underground Package 4 of the 82.15 km Delhi – Meerut RRTS project after officials from the National Capital Region Transport Corporation (NCRTC) opened online financial bids submitted by 5 bidders.

•STEC: 1126cr
•L&T: 1170cr
•Gulermak: 1326cr
•TATA-SKEC: 1346cr
•Afcons: 1400cr

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 12 Jun 2020 23:55

The silence from Indian leadership is not surprising, not because they lack courage, but because China has put a complex problem before India with suddenness and alacrity. Indian Govt is busy assessing the ramifications and evaluating its options on a scale which we have not encountered in recent times. And they realise the current standoff is much bigger than a border issue. A lot is at stake here, for China and for us, for years to come.

China has been riding on an export boom for 30+ years now, with its coffers full, industries modernised, 100s of millions of its large population having gained skills and economic prosperity, it is on the verge of becoming the world's largest economy and is able to project is power across all continents. The CCP's fear is how to at least sustain its economic activity for the next 30 years, even if they can't grow it at the same pace as before. The more you grow the more you need to feed.

The two big markets that brought China thus far - US & Europe now present major factors of instability in terms of continued demand and appetite for consumption of Chinese goods, and unreliability in terms of strategic fit and friendliness. Especially with the Trump trigged trade war, a weak post Brexit UK, and ever more disunited Europe, exacerbated by the economic impact of Covid-19 have made China realise that a certain urgency is needed in rolling out its plans for the coming decades.

China needs to secure alternate markets with future growth potential to derisk and sustain its export economy. It has increased domestic consumption greatly, but that won't be enough, by a mile. China wants to develop Africa, Middle East and perhaps even ex-soviet block countries to some extent as its future market engines. But to make its exports reach them, it badly needs an alternative to the clogged shipping lanes of Malacca straits, that are also easy to choke by the multitude of countries that surround these lanes, most of which do not have good relations with China. Thats why the Belt & Road initiate was launched, and the string of pearls to secure it. The China Pak Economic Corridor is a key piece of this initiative, providing superb access to the Arabian Sea and therefore to Middle East and Africa, and also reduces its dependency on traditional shipping lanes. From Kashgar to Karachi and Gwadar, the CPEC has to pass through Gilgit-Baltisthan and down south along (but not through PoK) to cross Pakistani Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan to achieve its objective to reach the Arabian Sea.

India's abrogation of Art 370 on J&K, and subsequent proclamations on regaining Gilgit Baltistan are obviously spanners in the works, and China views this a a major risk for its future plans. Paradoxically, Modi-Xi's summit last year in Chennai seems to have convinced China that India's leadership is strong and if not checked, will become ever stronger and impossible to contain in a few years. Instead of inspiring the expected trust and confidence in India's mature and strong leadership, this has reinforced threat perceptions and perceived economic and geopolitical rivalry from India in the mind of the CCP. They know Pak will not be able to contain India if we make a move on G-B & PoK. So China has taken the matter actively into its own hands to send a message to India that this region is important for them and that we should lay off any future ambitions on them.

So they have seem to have come up with this plan to engage India in a useless borders standoff across the length of the border to :
- Shift our focus from PoK & G-B
- Keep our troops deployed and occupied in eastern areas far away from CPEC corridor to the west.
- Impose an economic cost of such mobilisation that can possibly weaken or at least lengthen our economic bounce back post Covid.
- Create a perception of possible future instability in India that will detract foreign investments from increasing
- Prevent India from being seen as a reliable alternative to China for out sourced manufacturing
- Make us buy foreign equipment in panic to deplete our forex reserves
- Affect our economic growth and currency exchange rate which will fuel inflation given our energy dependency
.......

Now they have a few additional measures to push us into deeper quagmire:
- Goad Nepal to create additional headaches and unrest along the borders where people can move freely hoping they would attack each other and it blows up into something big - they have started on this
- Introduce spies into India via Pak, Nepal and BD, perhaps even have sleepier cells for creating unrest/sabotage
- Get ready to launch cyber attacks
- Support unrest along the north-east border with Myanmar with whom they share a border
- Support anti India sentiments in Bangladesh along religious lines hoping Hindu BJP in power will fall for it and do rash things
- Buy left/anti national elements in Indian media and political opposition to further distract the Govt with their writings, sayings and PILs

Once you look at all this, one begins to appreciate the immensity of the situation that goes beyond soldiers pushing and bashing each other on desolate mountain regions. India on its own doesn't have such coercive levers to dissuade, contain or check China's ambitions. Its not easy for us to create real tit for tat situations for China to keep them in check. And they can't be whipped out of a hat over night.

I don't think China is really interested in any marginal or even substantial border gains of a few 100 sq kms of territory in Eastern Laddhak or HP, or even Arunachal Pradesh, excepting the chicken's neck region which is a real choke point for India. They want India to LAY OFF any claims on G-B & to a somewhat lesser extent on PoK.

I also think that they are not interested in a real land war with India. They know we can fight to stalemate for sure, and may even make territorial gains. And emboldened by this, we may go ahead and regain G-B & PoK if Pakistan as much as lifts a finger during a conflict with China. So pushing us to an all out war is not the objective for China.

They will not make any big moves in OIR region, jeopardising shipping routes on which they themselves depend so much and end up dragging the US (Diego Garcia), SE Asian countries and Australia into the conflict, which is a losing proposition for them.

They expect India to quietly commit that there will be no ambitions overt or covert on G-B and/or PoK. Heck they may even be willing to sacrifice PoK in Pakistan's place, if we stay off G-B forever. In exchange, they will be willing to demobilise to status quo ante, but will not accept LAC or any other line as permanent border, because if this is what is being negotiated, they are in a position of strength already, so why give more? India can already claim deescalation without further loss of territory as a victory against a bigger, more powerful neighbour n'est-ce pas? And who gives a rat's ass about G-B in India anyway? In 4 years if the ruling party changes, G-B topic will get buried for decades! And we can go back to singing Hindi-China bhai-badabhai with a sore ass.

So, those who are criticising the Govt for not saying anything, deafening silence etc. What would you do to come out of this situation with not just your territory and H&D intact, but also without impacting the economy and India's own plans to grow into a world power ? And not antagonise China but still dissuade it from making such moves in the future ?

Perhaps you would want to start with some bravado statements to satisfy a few keyboard warriors on BRF? ;-)

When a country with India's size, scale, capabilities and potential starts growing into a significant power in world standings, we are more likely than not to face challenges like the present stand off with multiple ramifications and potentially very big, long lasting consequences.

This is a fascinating test for India's mettle not just as a military power but as an emerging world power. I'm sure we'll come out of this stronger and wiser. We have to.

khan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 12 Jun 2020 23:59

williams wrote:India will not escalate unless there is a further provocation.

What would you call this? IMO this is a bigger provocation than anything TSP could do. This must not be viewed as a China only thing. It should be viewed as a joint China + TSP operation.

IMO, if nothing big happens this winter, it is time to take a page out of China’s book & kill the monkey to scare the Dragon.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 13 Jun 2020 00:07

Baba on twitter

Dr. APR
Flag of India
Maple leaf
@drapr007
#BREAKING : LoC is turning into battlefield. Not only small arms but heavy arms also r being used.These sectors r witnessing heavy cross border shelling-

Manjakot
Balakote
Keri
Qasba & Kerni
Uri
Mankot
Shahpur
Rampur
Nowshera
Khari-Karmara
Sunderbani
Gulpur
Degwar
Kalal
Sawjian
12:01 pm · 12 Jun 2020·Twitter for Android


Earlier he had posted :
Dr. APR
Flag of India
Maple leaf
@drapr007
#BREAKING : Almost 300 km of LoC in Poonch, Rajouri and Baramulla is witnessing heavy cross border shelling at many places between our and enemy troopers. Now it has been escalated like war. Heavy artilleries, Rockets,Mortars & ATGMs are being used.

More power to #IndianArmy


Looks like something much more serious than a CFV is going on.
Last edited by Sanju on 13 Jun 2020 00:09, edited 1 time in total.

nachiket
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 13 Jun 2020 00:09

Karna wrote:The silence from the political leadership is deafening as compared to URI surgical strikes and Balakot Bombings. Hence the loss in the battle of perception.

The silence from Xi Jinping has been deafening too. Wonder how that doesn't lead to a loss in the battle of perception for the Chinese.

Sanju
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 13 Jun 2020 00:10

nachiket wrote:
Karna wrote:The silence from the political leadership is deafening as compared to URI surgical strikes and Balakot Bombings. Hence the loss in the battle of perception.

The silence from Xi Jinping has been deafening too. Wonder how that doesn't lead to a loss in the battle of perception for the Chinese.


Nachiket saar, there are two ex-faujis pushing the chini line.. the ex-service community is qute aware of these two.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 13 Jun 2020 00:22

China can keep up this stand off for as long as it wants, because it wants us to be engaged in a war-less conflict. They believe we can afford it less than they can.

They know India has traditionally tied its shoelaces together with concepts like non-agression, non-violation of borders/LACs/LoCs, non-escalation, NFU... what have you.

They believe India wants to be never seen as an aggressor or belligerent or conflict ready nation in the eyes of the west, because we don't want to jeopardise the mythical UNSC seat that we are craving for which needs the "white man's approval".

They believe we can't afford and don't have the stomach for an overt and all out conflict, much less a two front war.

They believe the internal consensus needed as a democracy is our handicap.

They believe we have enough anti-national BIF elements for sale.

What they clearly DONT believe IMO is that they can win a war against India even if they are willing to take some hits. Thats why this war-less conflict.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 13 Jun 2020 00:26

khan wrote:
williams wrote:India will not escalate unless there is a further provocation.

What would you call this? IMO this is a bigger provocation than anything TSP could do. This must not be viewed as a China only thing. It should be viewed as a joint China + TSP operation.

IMO, if nothing big happens this winter, it is time to take a page out of China’s book & kill the monkey to scare the Dragon.

China does not care what you do with the monkey since they already know the monkey is half dead. Also, the Doklam incident proves that the Chinese will deploy all kinds of troops but has very little stomach to go kinetic. India will simply not budge. There will be reciprocal deployment and I am sure stop-gap measures are already in place to be ready for any scenario. Besides we are inflicting enormous pain on the western side already. I think we are giving too much. credence to the superiority of Chinese strategic thinking. With the world in such a bad mood, this economic growth fueled by exports will simply be drowned when major powers around the world start a tariff war. So taking anything from China's book is foolish IMHO. Nothing is going to happen by this winter is my humble prediction.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 13 Jun 2020 00:35

"I think we are giving too much. credence to the superiority of Chinese strategic thinking. "


If anything we seen to have underestimated the space available for such thinking for an autocratic regime whose survival does not depend on winning elections every 4 or 5 years. They can and will do long term thinking since the regime offers the continuity to act over a period of time in support of what ever thinking they may come up with.

Doesn't automatically mean their thinking is always right or they will always succeed in realising their objectives.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 13 Jun 2020 00:38

ldev wrote:India desperately needs a 1000 or more long range cruise missiles, like the Tomahawk Block 2-TLAM or the Russian Kalibr M with a range of 2500km-3000km. That will ensure that any Chinese targeting of Indian population centers specially in the north and east with conventional SRBMs will be met with an Indian salvo of CMs that can reach all the way to Shanghai and Beijing. Being sub sonic cruise missiles travelling for 3-4 hours over China the losses will be significant but even if half reach their targets on the eastern Chinese seaboard it will be deterrence enough that China will not attack Indian population centers. Dibrugarh to Shanghai is about 2600 km and Dibrugarh to Beijing is about 2350 km.

Actually if the Chinese use BMs that would be playing into India hands. We already have a non strategic missile response to such things.... It's called Shouurya. It is virtually undoable and could easily reach Chinese nerve centers in the east coast. Provided of course that these have been produced... No news at all on this front.

No need for kalibr or tomakawk. Much more expensive but far more effective.


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