India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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khan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 00:49

This is Shiv Aroor’s thread, he deleted an old one - this broadly matches up with what Nitin Gokhale said:

Thread on what happened, as I understand it. In the absence of official information, here's the best I can do at this time:

After Lt Gen-level talks 10 days ago, *token* disengagement had begun - few tents. Last week, a camp that had been removed by Chinese was brought back.

CO & group of men (unarmed) went to the camp to tell Chinese to follow disengagement plan, quickly came under attack with stones. Chinese soldiers assaulted with barbed wire clubs etc. CO grievously hurt, removed immediately. Remaining soldiers surrounded, held by Chinese.

By sunset, CO succumbs to injuries + unarmed Indian men still held by Chinese. Indian Major & more go to camp, armed with their own melee weapons. Come under attack, fight back hard. Casualties inflicted among Indian captive men + several on Chinese side too.

More Chinese troops arrive from nearby camp, surround 1st camp where fighting is still on. Fighting spreads, moves up ridge over fast-flowing Galwan River, several fall steep cliff onto rocks/into river during fighting. On hill feature overlooking, Chinese earthworks spotted.

'Landslide' like situation. A Chinese Brigadier arrives on site, orders troops back, and to pick up casualties. Indian Army men retrieve bodies downstream in the darkness. Herculean task in that cold. Have to trek down etc. By morning several of the Indian men have succumbed.

Disengagement from this precise point has happened, but Chinese presence still in Galwan Valley. Brigadier & Colonel level talks have happened today. Situation remains volatile, tense. Priority to calm troops as CO killed in action on a mission to simply talk. Will update.



https://twitter.com/shivaroor/status/12 ... 32672?s=21

IMO, one lesson to be learnt is, if going to talk to 200 PLA soldiers, take 200 people with you to prevent this type of ambush. It’s like dealing with a wild animal, you always have to be prepared for them to attack.
Last edited by khan on 17 Jun 2020 00:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 17 Jun 2020 00:50

I am all for removing misjudgments.

Rename ALL fingers 1-8 and all major mountain tops in and around Wakhan Valley after one of these Indian soldiers that died.

All Indian and web-based maps should reflect this change. All Indian media and diplomats shall use these updated names.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 17 Jun 2020 00:59

khan wrote:
abhik wrote:I agree with ROE change, but what about the PLA whore are entrenched on our side (Finger 4-8 and hot springs area)? We need to take a call on those also - either we give them up as fate accompli or actually attack those positions.

I think what we saw in Galwan might be ultimately what happens to PLA between fingers 4 & 8. Send some troops in to demolish the structures they built. It will be bloody, but effective.

This sticks and stones thing will not work on F4-8 and hot springs area, while we mull over the ROE, you can be sure the PLA will now shoot if it sees any IA troops heading inside their current line. This will have to be a proper battle with their supporting elements (like the patrol boats) and reinforcements destroyed via artillery/airstrikes.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 01:09

abhik wrote:
khan wrote:I think what we saw in Galwan might be ultimately what happens to PLA between fingers 4 & 8. Send some troops in to demolish the structures they built. It will be bloody, but effective.

This sticks and stones thing will not work on F4-8 and hot springs area, while we mull over the ROE, you can be sure the PLA will now shoot if it sees any IA troops heading inside their current line. This will have to be a proper battle with their supporting elements (like the patrol boats) and reinforcements destroyed via artillery/airstrikes.

Their Brigadier came & pulled all their people back. He could have come with reinforcements. If they were going to shoot or escalate - this was their chance, they didn’t do it.

Indian side demonstrated resolve to restore the status quo within the ROE, I don’t see why this cannot be used in other standoff areas (terrain etc non-withstanding).
Last edited by khan on 17 Jun 2020 01:11, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby m_saini » 17 Jun 2020 01:09

I quite agree that the more info you put out, the more it can be used to hurt you. That's not the issue from what I can see. Everyone here fully supports GOI and if they decide not to put out information then that is that. But they also shouldn't allow others to fill that information gap either. If they don't want to give out any information, then just convey that. Say it's an ongoing situation and details won't be released anytime soon. The USA would never allow any Indian or US media outlet to cite "senior army general" and peddle any news. Chicoms actually do the same thing, they are very fast in booting out any foreign journalist who reports on any uncomfortable news.

Chicoms, USA or the pakis on the contrary are very eager to put out news of any positive side of their conflict. If there is any negative news then they shut up but they also don't allow others to report it either.

Don't know why people still believe that perception/info war is stupid. It serves a very important purpose of informing the common man because you need public's approval if you're going to fight and win a war.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby sanjaykumar » 17 Jun 2020 01:12

GOI would not have released casualty figures unless some major damage was done to the PRA (people’s repression army).

They are waiting for the Chinese to claim 3 China men got splinters in their fingers before videos are leaked.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 17 Jun 2020 01:15

khan wrote:This is Shiv Aroor’s thread, he deleted an old one - this broadly matches up with what Nitin Gokhale said:


.......Disengagement from this precise point has happened,but Chinese presence still in Galwan Valley. Brigadier & Colonel level talks have happened today. Situation remains volatile, tense. Priority to calm troops as CO killed in action on a mission to simply talk. Will update.



So the approach to the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road is the real target for the PLA. The other incursion at Pangong Tso and Hot Springs were run of the mill land grab, salami slicing operations. But this refusal to honor so called agreements reached by higher ups means that cutting off the DBO road was the main target of these incursions. Before the road was completed the Galwan valley had no major strategic importance to the PLA. Now because it affords them the closest approach to the DBO road it has become very important and they have dug in their heels in the Galwan valley and refuse to withdraw. At the same time the Indian Army cannot afford to have the PLA camped in the Galwan valley. In the event of hostilities, a short sharp surge can cut the road off to DBO and disrupt troop and supply movements.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 17 Jun 2020 01:16

khan wrote:This is Shiv Aroor’s thread, he deleted an old one - this broadly matches up with what Nitin Gokhale said:

Thread on what happened, as I understand it. In the absence of official information, here's the best I can do at this time:

After Lt Gen-level talks 10 days ago, *token* disengagement had begun - few tents. Last week, a camp that had been removed by Chinese was brought back.

CO & group of men (unarmed) went to the camp to tell Chinese to follow disengagement plan, quickly came under attack with stones. Chinese soldiers assaulted with barbed wire clubs etc. CO grievously hurt, removed immediately. Remaining soldiers surrounded, held by Chinese.

By sunset, CO succumbs to injuries + unarmed Indian men still held by Chinese. Indian Major & more go to camp, armed with their own melee weapons. Come under attack, fight back hard. Casualties inflicted among Indian captive men + several on Chinese side too.

More Chinese troops arrive from nearby camp, surround 1st camp where fighting is still on. Fighting spreads, moves up ridge over fast-flowing Galwan River, several fall steep cliff onto rocks/into river during fighting. On hill feature overlooking, Chinese earthworks spotted.

'Landslide' like situation. A Chinese Brigadier arrives on site, orders troops back, and to pick up casualties. Indian Army men retrieve bodies downstream in the darkness. Herculean task in that cold. Have to trek down etc. By morning several of the Indian men have succumbed.

Disengagement from this precise point has happened, but Chinese presence still in Galwan Valley. Brigadier & Colonel level talks have happened today. Situation remains volatile, tense. Priority to calm troops as CO killed in action on a mission to simply talk. Will update.



https://twitter.com/shivaroor/status/12 ... 32672?s=21

IMO, one lesson to be learnt is, if going to talk to 200 PLA soldiers, take 200 people with you to prevent this type of ambush. It’s like dealing with a wild animal, you always have to be prepared for them to attack.



Killing the unarmed CO of the opposition is cowardice

India should officially declare it no longer recognizes Tibet and make a claim for Lhasa at UN

Ask for a 10KM DMZ from the Indian side of LAC and tell PLA that anyone there is fair game

Let the PLA see a few hundred body bags.

You can be quiet for so long.

Cause-Belle is there; no need to take it lying down

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 01:18

Also would like to point out how, the day started with 3 IA casualties (zero Chinese) and ended with 20 IA & 40+ Chinese casualties.

While people here were demanding press briefings and statements to Parliament, IA & GOI was busy making the facts on the ground more favorable to Indian interests.

There is no reason to think this has process has stopped, let this play out.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 17 Jun 2020 01:19

My sources (and no kidding) are giving very high number for Chinese dead. It was not really fist fight....if you go through some initial tweet you would know the reason (very less dramatic). ours number will also rise, but theirs is 5-6x our number. all because of chinese stupidity.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsangram » 17 Jun 2020 01:22

amar_p wrote:India of 2020 doesn't have a fragile ego to escalate the conflict to prove something to others or itself. We could be criticised for being naive, forgiving and conciliatory in the past, but the India and Indian leadership (be it NaMo, Shah, Jaishankar, Rajnath, Goyal, Gadkari, Smriti...) I see at present is one of quiet confidence. They don't need to show bravado and act big to look big. They are BIG in their heads, and India is BIG in their hearts. I think we are able to look beyond today or tomorrow, further into the future.

Xi will react like the dictator he is, NaMo will act like the statesman he is.

What ultimately matters is tranquility on the borders as we want to draw them. So if the gains that can be achieved by giving a bigger bloody nose can be achieved with less effort and cost, why not ?


Yes, now we have robust egos, where we can just suck up and grin, when our young boys die. Now we are strong enough to brazenly peddle lame excuses to not do anything. Still declare victory, for not doing anything.

Amar, my man, I never cease to be amazed by how we Indians grope for anything...........reach for anything at all, to not stand up for ourselves and our boys.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 01:25

ldev wrote:
khan wrote:This is Shiv Aroor’s thread, he deleted an old one - this broadly matches up with what Nitin Gokhale said:


So the approach to the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road is the real target for the PLA. The other incursion at Pangong Tso and Hot Springs were run of the mill land grab, salami slicing operations. But this refusal to honor so called agreements reached by higher ups means that cutting off the DBO road was the main target of these incursions. Before the road was completed the Galwan valley had no major strategic importance to the PLA. Now because it affords them the closest approach to the DBO road it has become very important and they have dug in their heels in the Galwan valley and refuse to withdraw. At the same time the Indian Army cannot afford to have the PLA camped in the Galwan valley. In the event of hostilities, a short sharp surge can cut the road off to DBO and disrupt troop and supply movements.


I am not an expert, but I think they are all in some way strategic. Holding F4 will allow them to “bottle up” IA between the lake & the mountains (F4 is very narrow).

Galwan valley you have covered. I am not sure about hot springs.

I wasn’t aware these places existed 2 months ago, so maybe someone smarter than me can review my analysis & comment.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 17 Jun 2020 01:31

Mort Walker wrote:Giving the Chinese a bloody nose is not the main objective. Getting back to the pre-1962 border is the primary objective.


Totally agree but until that time lets not give them a free run to attack our soldiers and get away with it while our babus do the "diplomacy".

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 17 Jun 2020 01:31

Emotions are high, me included.

We respect and love our boys, but the Army is not an end in itself.

If we can achieve our objectives while letting our boys go home alive to their families, we should not forgo those options.

The information we are getting is evolving by the minute, and the situation is not stable. I trust the judgement of our officers on the ground and our leadership on the next actions.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsangram » 17 Jun 2020 01:44

amar_p wrote:Emotions are high, me included.

We respect and love our boys, but the Army is not an end in itself.

If we can achieve our objectives while letting our boys go home alive to their families, we should not forgo those options.

The information we are getting is evolving by the minute, and the situation is not stable. I trust the judgement of our officers on the ground and our leadership on the next actions.


Amaar, you are talking about kicking the can down the road.

That only results in geometrically higher casualties down the road, when many times more of our grand kids will die, as opposed to a few of our kids dying now, to save the future generation.

This is how it generally works, except in India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Jun 2020 01:46

fanne wrote:My sources (and no kidding) are giving very high number for Chinese dead. It was not really fist fight....if you go through some initial tweet you would know the reason (very less dramatic). ours number will also rise, but theirs is 5-6x our number. all because of chinese stupidity.


So small arms were used.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 17 Jun 2020 01:48

+1, the right time to deal with pak was 1948, china was 1950's. Kicking the can down the road will only make it worse for us.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 17 Jun 2020 01:49

Thats a matter of judgement isn't it?
And only time and benefit of hindsight will tell whether the call taken was right or wrong.
The fork in the road not taken will remain a matter of speculation for ever.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsangram » 17 Jun 2020 01:55

amar_p wrote:Thats a matter of judgement isn't it?
And only time and benefit of hindsight will tell whether the call taken was right or wrong.
The fork in the road not taken will remain a matter of speculation for ever.


Thats right. Let us just wait..........and see

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 17 Jun 2020 01:58

Rest assured neither our forces nor our leadership are in wait and see mode.
Its a privilege we citizen enjoy thanks to them.
We need to stay united and support them in every way we can.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ManuJ » 17 Jun 2020 02:01

Enforcing 'no shot fired' policy even as soldiers die a horrible death getting lynched or via hypothermia is just perverse. Reminds me of Nehru's 'no airforce' policy in 1962.

I am also trying to reconcile two conflicting reports of IA being fully in control of PP 14 and IA soldiers being captured in significant numbers by PLA. How does the winning side end up having its soldiers captured? Shouldn't it be the other way around? There are reports of a large PLA force overwhelming the smaller IA force. This points to a lack of real-time tactical intelligence in these hot-spots that is available at the battalion and company level.

GOI's reluctance to call the spade a spade and provide the full picture is really hurting us and allowing the Chinese to dominate the narrative in international media. Speculation is rife and people are being forced to stitch together the narrative from incomplete and often wrong sources. This needs to end. India should be driving the narrative and ensuring that PLA's incursion into Indian territory and its perfidy is highlighted.

These deaths have to be avenged by teaching PLA an expensive lesson and PLA has to be driven away from points from which they can dominate the DBO road. Anything less would be unacceptable.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 17 Jun 2020 02:01

Mort Walker wrote:
fanne wrote:My sources (and no kidding) are giving very high number for Chinese dead. It was not really fist fight....if you go through some initial tweet you would know the reason (very less dramatic). ours number will also rise, but theirs is 5-6x our number. all because of chinese stupidity.


So small arms were used.

I doubt a sticks and stones melee can go on for any considerable time, that too with actual fatalities (i.e. this is not just some roughing up), without someone realising this would just be easier with guns.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 17 Jun 2020 02:04

abhik wrote:+1, the right time to deal with pak was 1948, china was 1950's. Kicking the can down the road will only make it worse for us.


There is no solution for the Pak or China problem.

Until Syria exploded, even the might Israeli did not do anything worthwhile to bring down Syria. and Israel fight more wars than us. The Arabs did more to burn Syria than Israelis.

The only thing you can do is be militarily strong enough to prevent a war thrust upon you or retaliate when attacked like we are.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 02:06

If small arms were used, then why isn’t this more prominent on social media - this is the headliner.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 17 Jun 2020 02:09

Folks raising all kinds of doubts, please listen to Col ( R ) Shailendra Singh on latest events.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX6sK1hv_uY

And keep more faith than the idiot interviewer Cheema

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 17 Jun 2020 02:10

This action is literally on the other side of the shallow Shyok river just across the road to DBO as the satellite map illustrates. The dotted line on the right on the ridges is the LAC where the Chinese were I presume up until end April and then they descended into the Galwan river valley and advanced to the junction of the Shyok river. The action last night would have been on the high ridges on either side of the river and then the soldiers fell into the river bed.
Image

In comparison the Chinese are worried about DBO'S potential to invade Aksai Chin when their G219 highway is 100 km away as the crow flies across difficult terrain.
Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 17 Jun 2020 02:18

ldev wrote:This action is literally on the other side of the shallow Shyok river just across the road to DBO as the satellite map illustrates


I think it is on the LAC in the Galwan valley, not at the point of joining. I believe there is a metal road from the Chinese side along the valley near to the LAC, which they use to come down.

There is a video of our troops on one side of the side and Chini on the other side. That is definitely not as large as the confluence point of the rivers..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 17 Jun 2020 02:21

nam wrote:
ldev wrote:This action is literally on the other side of the shallow Shyok river just across the road to DBO as the satellite map illustrates


I think it is on the LAC in the Galwan valley, not at the point of joining. I believe there is a metal road from the Chinese side along the valley near to the LAC, which they use to come down.

There is a video of our troops on one side of the side and Chini on the other side. That is definitely not as large as the confluence point of the rivers..

That is possible. The high ridges on the eastern side appear to be high enough and steep enough to cause casualties from soldiers falling into the river. It could be further up the Galwan river valley.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby bkswarti » 17 Jun 2020 02:24

Any news if we captured any of their soldiers?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raja » 17 Jun 2020 02:35

India will have to tap into its soft power and hard power to deal with the dragon. The propaganda war is as crucial as the gun. Luckily, we have both the means and the experience to do just that. Maybe, Modi needs to come out swinging and make a strong (and clever) statement that puts China in a very hard place. I wonder if it would be worthwhile to publicly and officially shame China on their military adventurism during a global pandemic of their making. This would very nicely catch the global media's imagination.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 17 Jun 2020 02:39

Everybody here in BR knew that we had to surround their forward lines and capture and send them back while moving upfront. Still they were the ones to surround and come back. While saluting our brave Jawans, our politicians continue to be naive about the Chinese and continues to confirm a big breakdown of plan between our army and politicians on how to move forward. We just continue to stumble and a crime that our forces came under this attack like it was a surprise.

This whole "chinese betrayed us after talks" almost sounds goofish.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 02:47

I think at this point we are beyond statements. We are in “show me” territory.

The Chinese made an agreement with the Indian side on Galwan. They now have to honor to it. If they don’t then they have to be “made” to honor it.

And then they have to be “made“ to honor the April status quo in the other areas too.

I don’t see any other way out of this.

As an aside, I think General Hooda was right about this. The Chinese expended significant resources on this operation. It wasn’t some lone patrol setting up camp. It was naive of India to expect the Chinese to simply withdraw after negotiations. They want something in return for their efforts - or India will have to forcibly evict them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Jun 2020 02:59


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 17 Jun 2020 03:22

what if neither gun nor stones were used? I do not claim that I have exclusive knowledge (actually it came in initial twitter but later on narrative changed on something else happening). I am not at liberty to say more...(truth will come out sooner or later) but from what I am hearing we are in very good shape both lands captured and KIAs (and sorry do not want to sound that cold).
Now next question is, why are we not going to rooftop and shouting it? Would you if you were winning? Hey we did not announce Balakot strike, TSPISPR handle announced it. We were fine just going in and killing 300 of them and be shut. The Surgical strike, nothing was heard for months.
You would win and want to keep the trophy, not announce and escalate so that other side has no choice but go up the escalation ladder.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 17 Jun 2020 03:25

The place is very narrow. If either side used artillery it will probably be visible on the valley.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 17 Jun 2020 03:27

^ Artilley? AirPower?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 17 Jun 2020 03:45

Google earth image facing the Galwan River and Valley. The yellow line in the foreground is the road to DBO. The action probably happened on the right hand bank of the Galwan river or on top of the ridge with the almost cliff like drop down to the Shyok river. The redline running along the ridge top is the LAC which the Chinese are disputing and claiming the entire Galwan valley as their territory. Inhospitable terrain at an altitude of 14,000 feet.

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby g.sarkar » 17 Jun 2020 03:48

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... in-decades
India, China Face Off in First Deadly Clash in Decades
Tensions between the two Asian powers are poised to escalate at a time of shifting influence in the region.
By Paul D. Shinkman, Senior Writer, National Security June 16, 2020.

DOZENS OF TROOPS FROM India and China were reportedly killed in a dispute along a contested area of their shared border – the first bloody clash between the two countries in decades and an event with the potential to spark even more violence.
Chinese state media described the incident Monday night in the Galwan River valley where both countries have deployed troops in recent weeks as "the most serious clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers so far," confirming casualties but offering no further details about them. Indian government sources speaking on the condition of anonymity told The Times of India that 20 Indian army personnel had died in the fighting.
American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.
The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.
According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says. The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.
......
In an editorial in the semi-official Global Times, China said the tensions were caused by "arrogance and recklessness of the Indian side" and that officials there believed "their country's military is more powerful than China's." However the main focus of Beijing's ire was clear. "The U.S. has wooed India with its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which adds to the above mentioned misjudgment of some Indian elite," according to the outlet, which is not a direct mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party but is considered aligned with its views. "New Delhi must be clear that the resources that the U.S. would invest in China-India relations are limited. What the U.S. would do is just extend a lever to India, which Washington can exploit to worsen India's ties with China, and make India dedicate itself to serving Washington's interests."
.....
Gautam

DavidD
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby DavidD » 17 Jun 2020 03:57

I generally don't buy too much into media reports on either side. My assessment is that neither side has much to gain by escalating the situation, and it's also very odd that 20 - 40+ would die on each side in a non-firing brawl. I wonder if it's some sort of terrain related incident where a bunch of people on both sides fell off a cliff during a scuffle, perhaps from an unstable rock. That may explain the fairly restrained rhetoric coming from officials on both sides right now.

Sanju
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 17 Jun 2020 04:15

Landslides???


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