India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

khan · Post by **khan** » 18 Jun 2020 10:04

Situation is still hot https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 5552394240

Situation continues to be very tense at PP14, Galwan Valley. Maj Gen-level talks yesterday have *barely* kept things under control. India has conspicuously raised diplomatic tone. But situation not good on a major issue. Will update with official details. #IndiaChinaFaceOff

Added later - looks like might they have prisoners https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 97536?s=20

You may be able to judge from my tweet

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 18 Jun 2020 10:11

This is my understanding of the current situation:

1) Chinese are still occupying parts of Galwan
2) They are claiming it as theirs
3) They are asking India to stand down
4) India is refusing to stand down and trying to get them to pull back via talks

Our end goal is to get both sides back to their pre-April positions. They want to consolidate their holdings in Galwan.

The ball is in our court. If talks fail, will we go kinetic?

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 18 Jun 2020 10:13

Khan, shivarorr exaggarates a bit. He is calling this 'worse than Kargil'. Give me a break.

My skepticism on the claims that we took out 43 odd Chincoms is because of this.

Apparently, at the point of altercation, the Chincoms outnumbered our guys.

In fact, it seems that when when late Col. Santosh Babu & Co went to check on some tent, they were ambushed by scores of Chincoms.

I would think that by the time our reinforcement guys arrived at the scene, the Chincoms would have rushed their guys in huge #s with machatis, iron rods, knives etc. And who knows whether our guys who came there had those kinds of weapons. They may not have even expected that Chincoms would resort to such wanton brutality.

So tough to gauge as to whether this claim of 43 is true or not.

But for sure we lost 20+ of our brave men. Om Shanti. May their consciousness pervade the rest of fighting men there as they hold the Chincoms at bay.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 18 Jun 2020 10:16

Prem, but are those parts of Galwan that Chincoms are occupying, are they on our side of the LAC? If so, there is no way India will budge.

However, if the LAC there is not clearly demarcated, and Chincoms are exploiting that, then maybe its worth exploring talks, talks, and more talks.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 18 Jun 2020 10:18

If prc lobs srbm missiles into indias population centres - what will we do immediately? Its good to know our options.

I kind of agree that we can win the border war but something that comes home will need a different reaction matrix. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know a good answer but i really look forward to others who have clues about this. Chinese population centres are really far off. Tibetan plateau has nothing much to hit. Only buddhist monasteries and towns.

The only thing i do realise is that chinese missile launchers in tibet will be sufficiently trackable since no other movement. So they cant lob 200-300 missiles. But some yes definitely.

I think while planning against prc, we need to calculate our move at all steps of escalation ladder. Till the point it becomes untenable for beijing with regards to south china sea. What will be the level at which us indo-pacific command will find it opportune to hit Chinese and dismantle thr south china sea command. But beijing will try to use dprk in any such game as a pawn. Soko is super afraid of nokos nuclear weapons...

So threshold for chinese adversary in south china sea is very high. Which means we r on our own in such an escalation.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 18 Jun 2020 10:19

brvarsh wrote:We didn't need to win PR war when we have stabbed them near their heart and came back with the spear in hand. That's the war we need to win.

If you feel we do not need to win PR war then why this argument ji? Just move on.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Jun 2020 10:24

YashG wrote:If prc lobs srbm missiles into indias population centres - what will we do immediately? Its good to know our options.

I kind of agree that we can win the border war but something that comes home will need a different reaction matrix. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know a good answer but i really look forward to others who have clues about this. Chinese population centres are really far off. Tibetan plateau has nothing much to hit. Only buddhist monasteries and towns.

The only thing i do realise is that chinese missile launchers in tibet will be sufficiently trackable since no other movement. So they cant lob 200-300 missiles. But some yes definitely.

I think while planning against prc, we need to calculate our move at all steps of escalation ladder. Till the point it becomes untenable for Beijing with regards to south china sea. What will be the level at which us Indo-pacific command will find it opportune to hit Chinese and dismantle the south china sea command. But Beijing will try to use dark in any such game as a pawn. Soko is super afraid of Nokos nuclear weapons...

So threshold for Chinese adversary in south china sea is very high. Which means we r on our own in such an escalation.

We can sink Chinese Naval ships and shipping in IOR, why do think IAF is operationalising Thanjavur with Brahmos. Everything becomes legitimate when civilians are openly attacked like this.

See the German V1 and V2 campaign- the only time attacks against civilians is useful if you can launch 1000 bomber raids, otherwise you will make a country only thirty for revenge.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 18 Jun 2020 10:25

YashG wrote:If prc lobs srbm missiles into indias population centres - what will we do immediately? Its good to know our options.

I kind of agree that we can win the border war but something that comes home will need a different reaction matrix. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know a good answer but i really look forward to others who have clues about this. Chinese population centres are really far off. Tibetan plateau has nothing much to hit. Only buddhist monasteries and towns.

The only thing i do realise is that chinese missile launchers in tibet will be sufficiently trackable since no other movement. So they cant lob 200-300 missiles. But some yes definitely.

I think while planning against prc, we need to calculate our move at all steps of escalation ladder. Till the point it becomes untenable for beijing with regards to south china sea. What will be the level at which us indo-pacific command will find it opportune to hit Chinese and dismantle thr south china sea command. But beijing will try to use dprk in any such game as a pawn. Soko is super afraid of nokos nuclear weapons...

So threshold for chinese adversary in south china sea is very high. Which means we r on our own in such an escalation.

Before hitting population centers, i believe there would be saturation BM attacks against our Military/Industrial complexes. Massive cyber attacks would also happen.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 18 Jun 2020 10:30

khan wrote:Situation is still hot https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 5552394240
Situation continues to be very tense at PP14, Galwan Valley. Maj Gen-level talks yesterday have *barely* kept things under control. India has conspicuously raised diplomatic tone. But situation not good on a major issue. Will update with official details. #IndiaChinaFaceOff
Added later - looks like might they have prisoners https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 97536?s=20
You may be able to judge from my tweet

If PLA still has Indians as prisioners, why the hell did India allow chinese helicopters to evacuate their dead & wounded?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 18 Jun 2020 10:41

Ambar wrote: Its only you who is claiming the PLA casualties to be "nonsense" on multiple threads. There are several sources Indian and foreign including China's own mouthpiece Global Times and the usual anti-India BBC that have reported there were chinese casualties. Whether it was 30,35,43 or 90 no one knows and no one ever will. You are talking about a country which until this week claimed there were no corona cases outside wuhan province even during the peak ,so silly to expect china to behave like an open, transparent democracy .

To add to your excellent post Ambar ji - Professional armies such as ours, are more concerned about disclosing our casualties than those of the enemy.
Also, when they give an estimate of enemy casualties - in this case 43, that is their professional assessment, unclouded by a political officer who is under pressure to report certain numbers, or a non transparent govt.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 18 Jun 2020 10:43

putnanja wrote:
khan wrote:Situation is still hot https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 5552394240

Added later - looks like might they have prisoners https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 97536?s=20
If PLA still has Indians as prisioners, why the hell did India allow chinese helicopters to evacuate their dead & wounded?

Sir, this helicopter story is again from unofficial channels, nothing from any official ones, to my knowledge.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 18 Jun 2020 10:44

CRamS wrote:Khan, shivarorr exaggarates a bit. He is calling this 'worse than Kargil'. Give me a break.

My skepticism on the claims that we took out 43 odd Chincoms is because of this.

Apparently, at the point of altercation, the Chincoms outnumbered our guys.

In fact, it seems that when when late Col. Santosh Babu & Co went to check on some tent, they were ambushed by scores of Chincoms.

I would think that by the time our reinforcement guys arrived at the scene, the Chincoms would have rushed their guys in huge #s with machatis, iron rods, knives etc. And who knows whether our guys who came there had those kinds of weapons. They may not have even expected that Chincoms would resort to such wanton brutality.

So tough to gauge as to whether this claim of 43 is true or not.

But for sure we lost 20+ of our brave men. Om Shanti. May their consciousness pervade the rest of fighting men there as they hold the Chincoms at bay.

Its all "the fog of war". But we let the fog descend!!

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 18 Jun 2020 10:45

Sonugn wrote:
YashG wrote:If prc lobs srbm missiles into indias population centres - what will we do immediately? Its good to know our options.

I kind of agree that we can win the border war but something that comes home will need a different reaction matrix. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know a good answer but i really look forward to others who have clues about this. Chinese population centres are really far off. Tibetan plateau has nothing much to hit. Only buddhist monasteries and towns.

The only thing i do realise is that chinese missile launchers in tibet will be sufficiently trackable since no other movement. So they cant lob 200-300 missiles. But some yes definitely.

I think while planning against prc, we need to calculate our move at all steps of escalation ladder. Till the point it becomes untenable for beijing with regards to south china sea. What will be the level at which us indo-pacific command will find it opportune to hit Chinese and dismantle thr south china sea command. But beijing will try to use dprk in any such game as a pawn. Soko is super afraid of nokos nuclear weapons...

So threshold for chinese adversary in south china sea is very high. Which means we r on our own in such an escalation.
Before hitting population centers, i believe there would be saturation BM attacks against our Military/Industrial complexes. Massive cyber attacks would also happen.

Yes I agree with massive cyber attacks. India should start augmenting its cyber war arm and also make a voluntary commission - where coding geniuses from private sector can participate. I'm supremely confident that a lot of professionals in public domain from Indian are way way better than anything PRC has. But they would need structure and some initiation to make a difference. Its an aspect we should fully look through.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 18 Jun 2020 10:46

As per abhijit iyer no intrusion/occupation in galwan? All buildup in respective side of lac as per sat pics ... tents in pangong f4 though ....??

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 18 Jun 2020 10:48

Sonugn wrote: Before hitting population centers, i believe there would be saturation BM attacks against our Military/Industrial complexes. Massive cyber attacks would also happen.

The Chinese economy, as per what is reported, is 5 times our size. A single merchant ship sunk, or missile fired into a population centre, or company leaving China, has 5 times the damage to its capital markets (in terms of loss of investor / trading partner confidence).

Another way to look at it is that the Chinese merchant fleet has 8000 vessels. We have 400.
An Indian sub in the Malacca straits, or any other choke point, has a 20 times higher chance of hitting a Chinese merchant ship than a Chinese sub has of hitting ours. If we confine all our ships to port, 80% of our seaborne trade is still unaffected, whereas, the majority of Chinese trade is by its own vessels.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 18 Jun 2020 10:51

CRamS wrote:Prem, but are those parts of Galwan that Chincoms are occupying, are they on our side of the LAC? If so, there is no way India will budge.

However, if the LAC there is not clearly demarcated, and Chincoms are exploiting that, then maybe its worth exploring talks, talks, and more talks.

Yes the have salami sliced....The problem is come winter we can huff and puff all we like but it will be very difficult to get them to get out.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 18 Jun 2020 11:03

Saurav Jha is reporting some DDOS attacks against our infra by China PLASSF.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 18 Jun 2020 11:08

putnanja wrote:If PLA still has Indians as prisioners, why the hell did India allow chinese helicopters to evacuate their dead & wounded?

Why this useless speculation about China holding Indian prisoners? GoI has made an official announcement that there are no Indians missing or held prisoner. Is that not good enough for you?

Admins: you really need to clamp down on this garbage, otherwise before you know it there will be panic spreading all over the forum about this fake news. This repeated bakwaas about Indian prisoners in Chinese custody is just as bad as that stupid "saboot gang" during the Balakot discussions.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 18 Jun 2020 11:20

Roop wrote:
putnanja wrote:If PLA still has Indians as prisioners, why the hell did India allow chinese helicopters to evacuate their dead & wounded?
Why this useless speculation about China holding Indian prisoners? GoI has made an official announcement that there are no Indians missing or held prisoner. Is that not good enough for you?

Admins: you really need to clamp down on this garbage, otherwise before you know it there will be panic spreading all over the forum about this fake news. This repeated bakwaas about Indian prisoners in Chinese custody is just as bad as that stupid "saboot gang" during the Balakot discussions.

well said...

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Jun 2020 11:25

The Chinese have been itching for a fight and for some reason they think we are weak, this is our Khaklin Gol moment, we need some localized action which makes the Chinese take their aggression elsewhere.

We made a mistake of not pulling out from the sticks and stones agreement once they started getting agressive, we can't change the past but unless we can and start doing some action with respect to the LAC, the Chinese will be up to more tricks. We need to have an open time period.

Attack but claim being attacked, see their reaction, do it in a series of moves till they backed down.

jpremnath · Post by **jpremnath** » 18 Jun 2020 11:25

brvarsh wrote: In the days of Corona and a general anti-China sentiment across western world, shutting down a market of 1.3B people for any Chinese products is quite a good economic deterrence wouldn't you think so? A complete annihilation of Chinese Navy by Indian and Australian Navies in Indian Ocean, is that not deterrence enough?

One, shutting off all imports from China will mean our Pharma companies will bite dust as China is the biggest supplier of their APIs. Making alternative arrangements within the country is a 5 year job and cannot be done overnight. Same goes for the story of our electronics and capital goods industries.
And no, Australian navy is not going to blow up chinese ships. We are on our own. And considering how we are reacting to the current situation, i don't think we ourselves will have the stomach to escalate by attacking their ships. If we had that will power, we would have hit their 200 odd trucks sitting right next to the LAC.

The control of the escalation ladder is firmly with the Chinese and they decide when and where they make the next move, while our role is limited to react, talk and de escalate. I would still wait for a few more weeks to know for sure whether our govt do something considering how we made the revenge strikes in the 2016 SG and Balakot after keeping the enemy guessing. But the fact is any window for offensive action is running short fast. Our much touted advantage in numbers of acclimatised troups have come to naught as the Chinese got enough time to bring in their own numbers who are getting enough time in the attitude.

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 18 Jun 2020 11:35

What is the problem with autocratic, natinal security state, dictatorships like China and Pakistan. Underestimate others, overestimate themselves and create trouble for others thinking they will not react. Basically their adminstrative setup becomes so inhumane to their civilians that they collapse. India has just to hangout till that happens. We have no choice.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 18 Jun 2020 11:42

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/1 ... 7624450049

Indiatoday reporting about mutilations

Pashupatastra · Post by **Pashupatastra** » 18 Jun 2020 11:44

jpremnath wrote:
brvarsh wrote: In the days of Corona and a general anti-China sentiment across western world, shutting down a market of 1.3B people for any Chinese products is quite a good economic deterrence wouldn't you think so? A complete annihilation of Chinese Navy by Indian and Australian Navies in Indian Ocean, is that not deterrence enough?
One, shutting off all imports from China will mean our Pharma companies will bite dust as China is the biggest supplier of their APIs. Making alternative arrangements within the country is a 5 year job and cannot be done overnight. Same goes for the story of our electronics and capital goods industries.
And no, Australian navy is not going to blow up chinese ships. We are on our own. And considering how we are reacting to the current situation, i don't think we ourselves will have the stomach to escalate by attacking their ships. If we had that will power, we would have hit their 200 odd trucks sitting right next to the LAC.

The control of the escalation ladder is firmly with the Chinese and they decide when and where they make the next move, while our role is limited to react, talk and de escalate. I would still wait for a few more weeks to know for sure whether our govt do something considering how we made the revenge strikes in the 2016 SG and Balakot after keeping the enemy guessing. But the fact is any window for offensive action is running short fast. Our much touted advantage in numbers of acclimatised troups have come to naught as the Chinese got enough time to bring in their own numbers who are getting enough time in the attitude.

With this line of thought and the expected economic fallout , it may seem prudent to agree to Chinese demands on border demarcations and become a copper brother to the dragon. But , the problem with autocratic nations is their appetite is whetted by every surrender and they will not stop at the border. Taking a leaf out of Vietnam is the need of the hour. If they could fight off France , US and China successively and are still intact geographically then India can do much better .

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 18 Jun 2020 11:48

https://twitter.com/bsdhanoa/status/127 ... 50560?s=19

I really hope the news/source is wrong. If its correct we are doing a big mistake of turning an army in to a police force..even police can use the guns under attack.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Jun 2020 11:55

I hope its not true and this psy ops to lull the Chinese. Appeasing the present Chinese is like appeasing Hitler, you cannot do it.

We should be doing our background work on this.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 18 Jun 2020 11:56

Chinese had planned the whole thing down. Their intention from the start was to inflict another 1962. And I think they used much of may to acclimatize their troops while talking about peace/disengagement with us.

And btw Global times isn't read by Chinese but by rest of the world and now mostly Indians. Using Global times to spew peace and Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai and some Chinese casualty number is meant for us to see/read. So that we still keep deciding among ourselves if peace is a option or not. Or if we should go to war or not. While they build up their troops at the border.

Now as their game is up, they have started cyber attacks to slow down response.

These Chicoms want a war and inflict another 62 on us. Peace/disengagement was never an option and I believe they have multiple objectives not of which are good. But I believe our forces can give them a befiting reply.

We are at the most defining moment of 21st for India. If we lose this, the loss will be harder than 1962 one. But if we win this, the ghosts of 1962 will be wiped out forever.

But there is no doubt about it. It is an act of aggression against our sovereignty and we should not assume that peaceful options are open. It was out of the table since Chinese troops came into our territory in May.

jpremnath · Post by **jpremnath** » 18 Jun 2020 12:01

Pashupatastra wrote:

With this line of thought and the expected economic fallout , it may seem prudent to agree to Chinese demands on border demarcations and become a copper brother to the dragon. But , the problem with autocratic nations is their appetite is whetted by every surrender and they will not stop at the border. Taking a leaf out of Vietnam is the need of the hour. If they could fight off France , US and China successively and are still intact geographically then India can do much better .

What goes through the government's head is anybody's guess. If we had the stomach for a fight, it should have been immediate and I'm not talking about the killing of 30 odd chinese in the same hand fight, but a push to remove all encroachments which led to the whole thing. Now after giving a well armed and funded enemy time to prepare for a fightback it is not gonna happen.

And the decision to order police riot gear for the forces is totally shocking to be honest. How is it going to affect the morale of troops?..What's the message we are going to give the Chinese? That keep bludgeoning our troops and we won't fire our guns?

We all should wait for a few more days before making any judgements, but developments till now has been deflating to be honest.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Jun 2020 12:02

This police riot gear business is just that.

Mahesh_R · Post by **Mahesh_R** » 18 Jun 2020 12:06

somdev wrote: If we stop buying Chinese raw materials Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj, pharma companies, many others will be in serious trouble.

https://www.news18.com/news/auto/maruti ... 70601.html

Please understand if Australian Farmers can look for alternative markets and survive what makes you think our MNC with so much experience can't work it out ?

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 18 Jun 2020 12:07

https://twitter.com/AlphaWo40963407/sta ... 6214843394

Riot gear for the Army to counter this ? No way. I desperately hope that this news is fake.

Mahesh_R · Post by **Mahesh_R** » 18 Jun 2020 12:10

India should officially declare China Virus infection count ....
All the Health Ministry press notes should change the name and start using this instead of COVID-19.

What can they do ? This is one punch that will be remembered for a long long time ...

Wish our govt will think over and act on it ...

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Jun 2020 12:18

somdev wrote:If we stop buying Chinese raw materials Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj, pharma companies, many others will be in serious trouble.

somdev, the sky is not going to fall. Keep away from scare-mongering scenarios.

jpremnath · Post by **jpremnath** » 18 Jun 2020 12:23

Mahesh_R wrote:India should officially declare China Virus infection count ....
All the Health Ministry press notes should change the name and start using this instead of COVID-19.

What can they do ? This is one punch that will be remembered for a long long time ...

Wish our govt will think over and act on it ...

That would be juvenile at its most charitable. Even the porkis will have more self respect. If you wanted to give them a punch they will remember, we had to have an all-out thrust to remove all their current encroachments including on the finger 4 of pangsong tso.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Jun 2020 12:26

Mahesh_R wrote:
somdev wrote: If we stop buying Chinese raw materials Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj, pharma companies, many others will be in serious trouble.

https://www.news18.com/news/auto/maruti ... 70601.html
Please understand if Australian Farmers can look for alternative markets and survive what makes you think our MNC with so much experience can't work it out ?

There is always an alternative, Demand always creates supply. Our soldiers die gruesome deaths for us.Cant Suzuki and Bajaj go through a little pain ?

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 18 Jun 2020 12:30

kit wrote:
Mahesh_R wrote:
Please understand if Australian Farmers can look for alternative markets and survive what makes you think our MNC with so much experience can't work it out ?

There is always an alternative, Demand always creates supply. Our soldiers die gruesome deaths for us.Cant Suzuki and Bajaj go through a little pain ?

For Indian automobile.industry , the inevitable items are mainly Bosch, Conti ( engine ECU) Valeo (DRL , Headlamps , RCL ) and infotainment. Sheet metal and injection molding parts sourcing are due to pure greed.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 18 Jun 2020 12:30

Lets take all discussions on import ban, supply chain etc to the Neutering Chinese threat in strat form, and have only border situation news and analysis discussion here?

SidSoma · Post by **SidSoma** » 18 Jun 2020 12:31

somdev wrote:Chinese are hell.bent on OBOR. All they want is to join India. I have failed to understand how does transport linkage undermine India's security or economy? Say if we allow Kunming - Kolkata high-speed train, how does that impact our economy? India needs to rethink it's priorities and craft a path of peace without compromising national interests.

If we stop buying Chinese raw materials Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj, pharma companies, many others will be in serious trouble.

https://www.news18.com/news/auto/maruti ... 70601.html

1. The first MAJOR concern is the usage of PoK without Indian permission. This is a serious issue
2. The only country that has benefitted from BRI is China. Every other country has given up resources after falling into a debt trap. Can you name one country that has actually benefitted greatly from the BRI projects.
3. its not just a rail link or a road link or a infra project. Chinese companies may end up owning large swaths of land which may actually be an strategic issue in the longer run.

Indian companies were working long before Chinese became a manuf powerhouse and will continue to do so even if China is not there. Yes the cost of a lot of items may go up and as consumers we should live with that. I'd rather use a Samsung phone with 10MP cam than use a Xiaomi phone with 100MP camera even if they are the same cost.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 18 Jun 2020 12:34

Cain Marko wrote:So why is Modiji waiting for 4 more days before addressing the nation? What are they putting into place until that time? 21st is solar eclipse followed by devguru brihaspati transit to war sign dhanu in utrarashada - final victory?

That is a COVID related address to the nation. Probably related to lockdown

SridharMatlaparthi · Post by **SridharMatlaparthi** » 18 Jun 2020 12:38

chandrasekaran wrote:https://twitter.com/AlphaWo40963407/sta ... 6214843394

Riot gear for the Army to counter this ? No way. I desperately hope that this news is fake.

There is a subsequent clarification in the tweet..

Re: last tweet, must clarify, after getting inputs, riot gear for troops was brought in post 15 May 2020 to protect them from any repeat of earlier incidents and not after events at Galwan. There is no ambiguity on ground that the situation has changed.