Ambar wrote:
I am not sure i follow the line of questioning nor the intent. Did Modi or anyone in the government ask agencies or troops guarding the border to drop their guard ? If he believed in "Hindi-Cheeni bhai bhai" did he issue explicit order to our military to look the other way if the chinese were constructing structure on our side of the LAC ? It is atrocious to even compare Nehru's stupidity while dealing with China to what happened in Gawlan valley. The reason we are having this discussion today is because we refused to back off and yield unlike in the past when the chinese walked in, claimed their stake and pitched a tent.
Nehru also refused to back off with the “forward policy” & China also had better logistics etc.
I think PM Modi is in a very similar situation that Nehru was in.
This is my point.
Added later: I am not going to talk about Nehru etc until this is over. The recriminations can wait until later.
Last edited by khan on 18 Jun 2020 22:29, edited 1 time in total.
Add to it the insane and unconnected tweets from Global Times and ilk. Conflicting messages classic.
He's a Baba Banaras level character. A lot of videos and news he brings out from inside China are fantastic but it's blended with all sorts of over the top stuff. FWIW he also tweeted earlier that the count of Chinese dead has gone up to 66.
Really infuriating to read EAM's tweet on our bravehearts being armed but still getting clubbed to death because of some obscure toilet paper agreement.
I blame Delhi and wish we had better leaders.
Edit:My friend shared this over WhatsApp, looks like we fail to learn from history:
Last edited by MeshaVishwas on 18 Jun 2020 22:39, edited 2 times in total.
All the people doing Rona Dhona on the non use of fire arms.
Imagine if the LAC was also like the LOC?
How many men could go down?
What is the risk of a local incident leading to escalation?
The protocol has worked for manny years and has helped maintain a quiet frontier. And when there has been political will Indian Forces have held their ground without firing a shot.
The fact that the CO felt comfortable going to the LAC with a platoon meant that the protocol was working exactly as it was intended too.
Come to think of it: hand to hand combat probably puts the IA at an advantage compared to the PLAGF.
Suraj wrote:Let's see here. The PM of India pushes a signature manufacturing effort to bring and keep production within India. Five years after it was created, it's basically not getting anywhere, because the MSME industry has been gutted by a decade of Chinese imports coming in cheaply. And the businesses are too hooked on this cheap supply of Chinese imports. This was warned about many years ago.
The reality of politics is this - sometimes a war is good. It galvanizes a people who otherwise are too selfishly interested in their cheap imported Chinese goods to voluntarily boycott it. The most effective way to get them to change their ways is to enable a war to happen with an entity with whom there's been no bloody fighting in a generation.
If I were Modi, I would sit back in some satisfaction at the situation - a war like this offers the political space to squeeze the Chinese import channel out completely. The Chinese make $60 BILLION a year in trade surplus. That's 4 MMRCAs a year worth of sarees, fireworks, cheap toys, and unreliable hardware being imported from there. Cut that off, and the costs to them are far more than any war they've ever fought. Sure they can harm our exports, but we only export $15 billion to them, and they import $75 billion to us. They'll run out of stuff to ban a long way before us.
The current situation is an amazing opportunity to broadly dismantle the pernicious base of Chinese imports to India - and to do it on social media through widespread dissemination . Already, my family members are on Whatsapp asking what non-Chinese phone instead of Oppo/Lenovo they can use, and these are people who have never asked something like this before.
I see this as opportunity staring at us in the face - right down to us as individuals. The PM is in a great place to actually push for the Indian opium addiction to Chinese goods to be removed. Replacing it with our own production only benefits us, and it harms the Chinese greatly. What's more, people themselves can broadly push an economic boycott over SM .
Blame on the PM ? If I were sitting in his position, I'd be satisfied - I now have the popular anger to harness to squeeze the endless flow of Chinese goods into India and the flow of Indian wealth out. I would focus on channeling that anger into actually imposing an effective economic boycott. When the Chinese see a most of their trade surplus evaporate, they'll realize that their stupidity cost them 10-11 figure dollar losses.
Very well put. PM shall be smugly sitting and would have been smoking a pipe, if he did so.
Last few weeks have changed the psyche of people: They are voluntarily asking for alternatives to Zoom, TikTok, let alone smartphones. Over the years, all the warning to Not Import from China / Not Buy China stuff fell on deaf ears. But now things are totally different: people are very aware now. If harnessed properly, this shall be watershed moment in resurrection of MSMEs and re-igniting manufacturing, that was always there.
And it shall be true homage to the bravehearts who laid down their lives.
So the only entity in China who has experience fighting anything is PLA in Vietnam and that was decades back.
the PLAAF is just flying jets around for the past 60 years!
Yeah they will not get in to a full fledged fight with us. Any combat on LAC will be a out & out PLA fight. They cannot trust an entity which has not fought anything in 60 years.. to help them.
Compare this to us, who have been in a war or almost a war every decade in the past 50 years..
The urgent purchase of 33 fighters to me seems like attrition backfill. IAF is expecting soen losses in a conflict post which it has to still retain posture against China. The assumption is that whatever is upcoming though it will lead to some losses but it will not involve a full-scale war against China. I am thinking GB.
nam wrote:So the only entity in China who has experience fighting anything is PLA in Vietnam and that was decades back.
the PLAAF is just flying jets around for the past 60 years!
Yeah they will not get in to a full fledged fight with us. Any combat on LAC will be a out & out PLA fight. They cannot trust an entity which has not fought anything in 60 years.. to help them.
Compare this to us, who have been in a war or almost a war every decade in the past 50 years..
This is all wishy washy stuff. Reminds me of “Indians are SDRE cowards” that the Pakistani’s used to throw around - it is a poor substitute for an actual edge in logistics, artillery, positioning and so on. The Chinese picked their spots well, they hold the high ground and are dug in.
We are looking at the Chinese build up the wrong way (and needlessly getting to Dhoti shiver).
If, as was suggested, satellite pics indicate a whole brigade is stationed between finger 5 and 8, that is a huge force in a very small area. Now that they are there, they cannot move out without losing face. If we have a single infantry battalion west of finger 4, that is enough to prevent further ingress and also ensue the threat from us is credible enough for them not to thin out. (If they have a battalion there, we station 2 companies on our side).
We have no problem staying in our positions, that's what 3rd infantry div does every day. To counter the 4 brigades of 3rd ID, the Chinese would need more than their entire force present in Aksai Chin. That force thought they were going to Tibet for a short exercise. I see no arrangements for them to spend the winter, stock their fuel, ammo etc. To make it worse, by now, 3rd ID, must have been reinforced by another division for Southern Ladakh
and 8th Mountain div in Dras, which is acclimitised, is possibly on standby.
Add to this, the forces we would normally deploy in Himachal (1 division from IX corps in Yol) and Uttaranchal (6th div) would mean all the 12 brigades of the 76th and 77th armies of the western theatre, would have to spend months hanging out at high altitude, with primitive infrastructure, unable to advance against our defences and unable to quit without losing face.
In the Northeast, it would be even worse for the Chinese. We can deploy 8 divisions in 3 corps, all looking to salami slice. The Chinese would have nothing to oppose this except 3 brigades. So their rising star general would have to ask Xi to mobilize another 2 armies just to counter our forward deployment in the North East and Sikkim. In all this time, we do nothing, except chai-biskoot and more aggressive patrolling, while also slowly tightening the screws on China economically - make them pay a price in terms of reduced or costlier access to the Indian market. It would be Doklam multiplied manifold for them. This is a gane of patience. the Chinese are very good at it, but as in Doklam, we have the chance to outlast them.
At the same time the Galwan ambush should be avenged. Next time I'd like to see how those nail studded clubs fare against the Kukri in a fair fight.
Last edited by Deans on 19 Jun 2020 00:01, edited 1 time in total.
Although I know that some dhoti shiverers get caught up the notion of a 10Ft Chinaman, this entire episode takes me back to the 27 Feb Swift Retreat by Fizzleya where they they took advantage of our "cast in stone" RoE to fire off AIM120 from within their territory.
Here again our RoE is used against us by the adversary on our soil!
khan wrote:
Nehru also refused to back off with the “forward policy” & China also had better logistics etc.
I think PM Modi is in a very similar situation that Nehru was in.
This is my point.
Added later: I am not going to talk about Nehru etc until this is over. The recriminations can wait until later.
Hopefully with few key differences: respecting of military leaders, respecting of Sardar Patel, respecting of every inch of the motherland irrespective of whether grass grows or not, respecting of human lives, etc..
“In terms of geopolitical choices, economic choices, India will look elsewhere,” said the (Indian) official. “We tried to offer them an economic stake in our country hoping that a more robust business relationship could create mutual familiarity and understanding. But obviously beyond a point, it hasn’t worked.”
“This is a turning pointing — a very serious junction the relationship,” says Nirupama Rao, India’s former foreign secretary and its former ambassador to both the US and China. “With what happened in Galwan [Valley, on the border] — and so much blood being shed — it can’t be business as usual.”
“There was a clash, and it was brutal,” the Indian official said. “It would be ridiculous to expect there would not be economic or other consequences.”
“India needs to make some decisions about who its friends are,” said Alyssa Ayres, author of Our Time Has Come, a book about India’s international relations.
“India’s foreign policy orientation has always been to try to delay making any choices. Modi talks about ‘the world as one family’. But it turns out, some members of your family aren’t so great to you.”
Last edited by ldev on 18 Jun 2020 23:14, edited 1 time in total.
MeshaVishwas wrote:Although I know that some dhoti shiverers get caught up the notion of a 10Ft Chinaman, this entire episode takes me back to the 27 Feb Swift Retreat by Fizzleya where they they took advantage of our "cast in stone" RoE to fire off AIM120 from within their territory.
Here again our RoE is used against us by the adversary on our soil!
Chinese have successfully saved GB for one more summer and cast enough doubts in our heads that we don't plan for GB takeover for the coming few years. So have they met their strategic objectives ??
The DM,Rajnath Singh is to visit Moscow on the 23rd. according to latest media reports. One hopes he has a large shopping list with him including immediate supy/ lease of key weapon systems.
Sonugn wrote:China’s People’s Liberation Army meticulously planned attack in Galwan, says senior government official https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... epage=true
There is another account in the Hindu that narrates dammed rivulets being released to target our patrols
Abhijit Iyer (iyerval) had said something to this effect in a tweet some weeks ago but he has gone silent on this particular point. If possible we should dislodge the hills on both sides of Galwan and dam it right at the LAC - it will block their view of the road and it will basically create a Galwan lake on their side and drown their nice beaches.
Larry Walker wrote:
Chinese have successfully saved GB for one more summer and cast enough doubts in our heads that we don't plan for GB takeover for the coming few years. So have they met their strategic objectives ??
Boss, you need to dial it down. Page after page you are creating lot of clutter.
Ambar wrote:
I am not sure i follow the line of questioning nor the intent. Did Modi or anyone in the government ask agencies or troops guarding the border to drop their guard ? If he believed in "Hindi-Cheeni bhai bhai" did he issue explicit order to our military to look the other way if the chinese were constructing structure on our side of the LAC ? It is atrocious to even compare Nehru's stupidity while dealing with China to what happened in Gawlan valley. The reason we are having this discussion today is because we refused to back off and yield unlike in the past when the chinese walked in, claimed their stake and pitched a tent.
Nehru also refused to back off with the “forward policy” & China also had better logistics etc.
I think PM Modi is in a very similar situation that Nehru was in.
This is my point.
Added later: I am not going to talk about Nehru etc until this is over. The recriminations can wait until later.
No, your point wasn't that they are similar situations (perpetuated by 60 years of neglect under one regime), but rather that Modi is as gullible as Nehru and that is flamebait.
Larry Walker wrote:The urgent purchase of 33 fighters to me seems like attrition backfill. IAF is expecting soen losses in a conflict post which it has to still retain posture against China. The assumption is that whatever is upcoming though it will lead to some losses but it will not involve a full-scale war against China. I am thinking GB.
Philip wrote:The DM,Rajnath Singh is to visit Moscow on the 23rd. according to latest media reports. One hopes he has a large shopping list with him including immediate supy/ lease of key weapon systems.
I hope not because the Russians are just as bad as the Chinese and will stab India in the back. Additionally, 40% of weapon systems they sell to India don't work without significant time and cost from the IA, IAF, and IN.
Now is the time to place an order for 166 LCA Tejas and ramp up production on everything else domestically.
Here are some hard realities: the Indian people and economic entiies are addicted to cheap Chinese goods, like an opium or crack addiction. It ranges all the way from Ambani level down to the mango man with an Oppo phone. 'Blaming' them is pointless. This is normal human behavior. Even China was one brought to its knees by addicting the entire population literally to opium, and what's more *we* made most of the opium that the British then shipped over to China. In Hong Kong, there's still a derogatory reference to Indians as 'ah san' - British managed Indian sepoys who drove the opium trade into mainland.
A political apparatus has the goal to wean the population off a bad habit. Telling people 'please stop using Oppo etc' does not work. People are selfish. They want to keep using cheap things while demanding someone else do something. You know what works well to get everyone angry and motivated to do something about it ? A war. A small border war that inflames anger.
It's hard to make domestic industrial policy while imports keep pouring in and people simply don't want to change. The smart politician knows that blaming the people who voted for him isn't the right way to tackle this. The smart way is to get them angry at someone else as a result of which they're collectively disgusted about the imports coming in, and they themselves can be compelled to stop doing so.
There's a greater truth to 'war is just politics by other means' than people realize here. This is an opportunity - to stop an incredible amount of Indian wealth being drained each year by an enormous trade deficit we have with China. Each year we pay them the price of 4 MMRCA deals.
Given the above, what would you rather do ? Sit back and contemplate just how much the Indian industrial base was being eroded by the endless flow of cheap imports and now the chance to channel popular anger to end that ? Or just blame the PM ?
One has to realize that when you run a huge trade deficit, and the seller picks a fight with you, you have the power to make him pay a disproportionate cost by shutting your market off to him. And shutting that market can happen down all the way to the individual level - it's exactly what the Indian political leadership would be happy to see, because it would enable their own policies to work more effectively.
Raveen wrote:No, your point wasn't that they are similar situations (perpetuated by 60 years of neglect under one regime), but rather that Modi is as gullible as Nehru and that is flamebait.
I was referencing similarities to situation on the ground, not being political or anything like that.
Philip wrote:The DM,Rajnath Singh is to visit Moscow on the 23rd. according to latest media reports. One hopes he has a large shopping list with him including immediate supy/ lease of key weapon systems.
Haha - I hope it is to return some of the junk sold to us which is the same as the junk sold to the Lizards and the Piggies.
Officially they've declared they won't pick a side, aka they won't support India over China, and I bet the same would be true for a conflict with Pakistan. Russia is a corner convenience store for mostly rusty arms, treat it as such with no illusions of some strategic partnership. They already sold their soul to the highest bidder.
Last edited by Raveen on 18 Jun 2020 23:35, edited 1 time in total.
Raveen wrote:No, your point wasn't that they are similar situations (perpetuated by 60 years of neglect under one regime), but rather that Modi is as gullible as Nehru and that is flamebait.
I was referencing similarities to situation on the ground, not being political or anything like that.
But we can discuss this later.
Then you need to go back and fix your post because words matter.
Deans wrote:We are looking at the Chinese build up the wrong way (and needlessly getting to Dhoti shiver).
If, as was suggested, satellite pics indicate a whole brigade is stationed between finger 5 and 8, that is a huge force in a very small area. Now that they are there, they cannot move out without losing face. If we have a single infantry battalion west of finger 4, that is enough to prevent further ingress and also ensue the threat from us is credible enough for them not to thin out. (If they have a battalion there, we station 2 companies on our side).
noob question. Who holds the heights at finger 4. I remember the images that Col. Dinny and Nitin Gokhale shared, west of finger 4 is actually a very narrow path upto a distance. You need to move in a single file.
Those whining about urgent shopping with Russia would have whined about lackadaisical GOI response if it didn't.
Please don't feed those trolls. And yes, thats trolling.
Suraj wrote:Here are some hard realities: the Indian people and economic entiies are addicted to cheap Chinese goods, like an opium or crack addiction. It ranges all the way from Ambani level down to the mango man with an Oppo phone. 'Blaming' them is pointless. This is normal human behavior. Even China was one brought to its knees by addicting the entire population literally to opium, and what's more *we* made most of the opium that the British then shipped over to China. In Hong Kong, there's still a derogatory reference to Indians as 'ah san' - British managed Indian sepoys who drove the opium trade into mainland.
A political apparatus has the goal to wean the population off a bad habit. Telling people 'please stop using Oppo etc' does not work. People are selfish. They want to keep using cheap things while demanding someone else do something. You know what works well to get everyone angry and motivated to do something about it ? A war. A small border war that inflames anger.
It's hard to make domestic industrial policy while imports keep pouring in and people simply don't want to change. The smart politician knows that blaming the people who voted for him isn't the right way to tackle this. The smart way is to get them angry at someone else as a result of which they're collectively disgusted about the imports coming in, and they themselves can be compelled to stop doing so.
There's a greater truth to 'war is just politics by other means' than people realize here. This is an opportunity - to stop an incredible amount of Indian wealth being drained each year by an enormous trade deficit we have with China. Each year we pay them the price of 4 MMRCA deals.
Given the above, what would you rather do ? Sit back and contemplate just how much the Indian industrial base was being eroded by the endless flow of cheap imports and now the chance to channel popular anger to end that ? Or just blame the PM ?
One has to realize that when you run a huge trade deficit, and the seller picks a fight with you, you have the power to make him pay a disproportionate cost by shutting your market off to him. And shutting that market can happen down all the way to the individual level - it's exactly what the Indian political leadership would be happy to see, because it would enable their own policies to work more effectively.
If Chinese goods were akin to opium for Indians then we would see them use this as a strategic lever. Chinese should be threatening to not export their goods to India and make Indians beg for Chinese goods. What we actually see is Chinese cautioning India not to ban the Chinese imports. The reality is they want our money , our land and later our women (they have a lot of single men due to one child policy). They have Pakistan under economic slavery and now trying brinkmanship with India to establish military superiority as a message to the world.
Larry Walker wrote:The urgent purchase of 33 fighters to me seems like attrition backfill. IAF is expecting soen losses in a conflict post which it has to still retain posture against China. The assumption is that whatever is upcoming though it will lead to some losses but it will not involve a full-scale war against China. I am thinking GB.
In midst all these analysis, I sometimes wonder how some people despite having everything would love to see their country go down while some people despite having nothing love their country from the bottom of their heart.
If these are our common citizens, then I have faith that we will definitely come on top of this. No doubt about it. Our soldiers will definitely bring home victory.
Let's support them with whatever means possible which has already been discussed multiple times on this forum instead of over analysing the things again and again.
RajaRudra wrote:Emergency purchase of 12 Sukhoi and 21 Mig-29 from russia.
Source- Twitter @FrontalAssault1
Not sure, if that means we are preparing well..or just bulking up for back ups.
Could be replacement ordered for the crashed once in the case of Sukhois, Is the Mig 29 already ordered getting urgency now?
Deans wrote:We are looking at the Chinese build up the wrong way (and needlessly getting to Dhoti shiver).
If, as was suggested, satellite pics indicate a whole brigade is stationed between finger 5 and 8, that is a huge force in a very small area. Now that they are there, they cannot move out without losing face. If we have a single infantry battalion west of finger 4, that is enough to prevent further ingress and also ensue the threat from us is credible enough for them not to thin out. (If they have a battalion there, we station 2 companies on our side).
noob question. Who holds the heights at finger 4. I remember the images that Col. Dinny and Nitin Gokhale shared, west of finger 4 is actually a very narrow path upto a distance. You need to move in a single file.
The LAC is a loosely defined narrow zone where claims are reduced to "we used to patrol until here" and "you used to patrol until there". The first ones to occupy heights and ridges hold the terrain. Until winter comes and the whole area becomes inhospitable. Next year when the ice thaws, the dance starts once again...
And the LAC is within Indian claimed territorial boundary, and actually represents the extent to which China has already intruded and occupied Indian territory. Pushing Chinese back to finger 8 or whatever is like fighting for scraps while half the cake has already been eaten.
Larry Walker wrote:
Chinese have successfully saved GB for one more summer and cast enough doubts in our heads that we don't plan for GB takeover for the coming few years. So have they met their strategic objectives ??
Boss, you need to dial it down. Page after page you are creating lot of clutter.
Let me know in your opinion what is worth so much of trouble and expenses and almost impacting a significant amount of exports (to India) for China to undertake the current hostilities ? What will Galwan valley alone or PP14 or Finger-Point-4 going to offer them to justify all this investment and pain ?
How come trying to discuss and debate and gain broader understanding in a forum create clutter ??
I am just putting my views out here and i am happy to be challenged or corrected, but I don't appreciate personal attacks.
Pashupatastra wrote:If Chinese goods were akin to opium for Indians then we would see them use this as a strategic lever. Chinese should be threatening to not export their goods to India and make Indians beg for Chinese goods. What we actually see is Chinese cautioning India not to ban the Chinese imports.
Of course. That's the point I'm trying to make here - a huge trade deficit of mostly replaceable items is a bad thing except at one time - when the seller is stupid enough provoke a war with the buyer. In fact, the buyer has every reason to let that war happen - it galvanizes his people two stop buying.
The government has been trying for years to build a domestic ecosystem, but you cannot build the walls of a well when there's water pouring in over the top. The Indian people - like the Chinese themselves with opinion, or the Americans with their own consumer addiction - like their cheap goods, until the government has a way to convince them why a local alternative is better. Sometimes that conviction is best offered by the anger of an 'unjust war'.
If I was the Indian PM, and the Indian population doesn't listen to me when I set up a domestic industrial policy and I can't make it work because of the flood of Chinese imports, I would be quite happy to see a war happen - especially one provoked by them. It gives me all the leverage to channel my own populations anger towards a cause that suits me, AND I get to make the Chinese lose tens of billions in lost exports by people willingly stopping consumption of Chinese goods. The same people who before the way were too unwilling to stop...
