India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Suraj]

On the front of trying to hurt China economically, I very much doubt it matters to them.

China exports $2.49 trillion (shy of Indian GDP by $0.5 trillion) and exports $77 billion to India. 3.1%

China imports $2.13 trillion and imports some $ 19 billion from India. Less than a percent.

Oh yes, lets keep giving them $60 billion of our wealth every year. Why bother. It's only xx percent right ?

Please stop your nonsense.

[Cyrano]

NRao, right you are. Still why should we give a single rupee our money into a regime hell bent on harming us?

Plus if India sets off a trend others in the world world may follow.

If India becomes more self reliant, we could export to other countries trying to wean off Chinese goods.

Easier said than done but 2 months ago, we were not even saying...

[suryag]

Nrao Sir look at it the other way, what if 60billion instead of going out is inside the country ? I dont care how rich PRC is I care about my money and how I spend it

[Deans]

The LAC is a loosely defined narrow zone where claims are reduced to "we used to patrol until here" and "you used to patrol until there". The first ones to occupy heights and ridges hold the terrain. Until winter comes and the whole area becomes inhospitable. Next year when the ice thaws, the dance starts once again...

And the LAC is within Indian claimed territorial boundary, and actually represents the extent to which China has already intruded and occupied Indian territory. Pushing Chinese back to finger 8 or whatever is like fighting for scraps while half the cake has already been eaten.

Sad but true.

That's my point. When the area becomes inhospitable, the Chinese have to go back some 3000+ km, we have to go back 10 (while keeping a picket present there, as we have done in other equally inhospitable places. This is a game of patience and the Chinese are good at it. This time we shuld outlast them.

[Ambar]

The thing is excluding EU (27 different countries) and Hongkong (re-export), India runs the 2nd largest deficit with China after US. The entire Chinese industrial setup is based on excess capacity from infrastructure to labor to manufacturing. Its not just India rethinking the current economic setup where we have given them ~half a trillion dollars in the last decade but also EU and US that are discussing the over reliance on chinese supply chain post covid. Chinese are not blind that they cannot see India is a growing market of 1.33 billion people with burning ambition to climb up the social ladder and the appetite for consumption that comes with it. For all the credit the chinese get for how smart they are in business, they do have a strong penchant to poke the eyes of their best customers over and over again.

[suryag]

Folks if your posts are vaporizing please understand that the reason would have been needless trolling/flamebaiting/meaningless political discussion/Saboot request/defeatist content. Warnings and bans will follow for repeat offenders

[NRao]

On the front of trying to hurt China economically, I very much doubt it matters to them.

China exports $2.49 trillion (shy of Indian GDP by $0.5 trillion) and exports $77 billion to India. 3.1%

China imports $2.13 trillion and imports some $ 19 billion from India. Less than a percent.

Oh yes, lets keep giving them $60 billion of our wealth every year. Why bother. It's only xx percent right ?

Please stop your nonsense.

That is certainly one way to look at it - give them $60 billion. The other is that does it matter to them. They will get that $60 billion from some other way, granted from someone else, not India. Besides that, India would still be spending those $60 billion elsewhere - due to the addiction you yourself mentioned.

I would prefer India look at how to grab their export markets. That would help India and hurt China.

[nam]

Chinese exports to India may be minuscule to them. But due to going local, India build a manufacturing ecosystem, which will compete with the Chinese export.

it will start hitting their world wide exports. That's is the real deal.

Cannot sell to the world, if we cannot sell to our population.

[m_saini]

I would prefer India look at how to grab their export markets. That would help India and hurt China.

We ARE their export market. We produce goods for those $60 billion ourselves and grab their export market which is "INDIA".

[NRao]

Nrao Sir look at it the other way, what if 60billion instead of going out is inside the country? I dont care how rich PRC is I care about my money and how I spend it

Sir, I hope I have answered your question in my previous post.

OT
On how to spend money, may I suggest a book suggested by Babasaheb Kalyani? Freedom's Forge.
/OT

Thx

[Suraj]

Nrao Sir look at it the other way, what if 60billion instead of going out is inside the country ? I dont care how rich PRC is I care about my money and how I spend it

NRao's argument is the same as 'it's an inhospitable terrain where not a blade of grass grows' . Nehruvian like in lack of understanding of value.

Out of that seemingly small percentage, we give them their third biggest trade surplus, not counting HK which is basically a transshipment port for them. The biggest is US, and the second is EU combined. Two entities with nominal GDPs 5x of ours .

China surplus:
1. USA $275 billion
2. EU $180 billion
3. India $60 billion

We're an enormous source of cheap wealth gain for them. Think the Chinese don't care ? I'll very happily take a bet for how they respond if we cut $50 billion of that trade imbalance a year.

NRao's bet: they won't care, they can find $60 billion behind their sofa easily
My bet: they'll start conciliatory talk and beg a long time before the deficit is cut by $50 billion

[gauravsh]

Let me know in your opinion what is worth so much of trouble and expenses and almost impacting a significant amount of exports (to India) for China to undertake the current hostilities ? What will Galwan valley alone or PP14 or Finger-Point-4 going to offer them to justify all this investment and pain ?
How come trying to discuss and debate and gain broader understanding in a forum create clutter ??
I am just putting my views out here and i am happy to be challenged or corrected, but I don't appreciate personal attacks.

GB is not an empty plot down the road that you go and take over it. Heck even that is damn difficult. Have thought of the logistics required to take over GB ? Do we even have the political will to do it ?
You seem to be angry and in hurry. We have people more capable and in know of things, let them do their job.
Anyways, back to my hibernation mode. No more from me on your continous rants.

[Suraj]

That is certainly one way to look at it - give them $60 billion. The other is that does it matter to them. They will get that $60 billion from some other way, granted from someone else, not India. Besides that, India would still be spending those $60 billion elsewhere - due to the addiction you yourself mentioned.

I would prefer India look at how to grab their export markets. That would help India and hurt China.

Well hello. Don't you understand ? WE are their export market! We are the second biggest single country market for their trade surplus, and the third behind the EU.

If you want to compete with Chinese on third party soil, the first order of business is that you block them on your soil to build your industry to compete. Basic business sense dictates that. If the public is used to those cheap imports, a war is the perfect moment to compel them to stop.

If you're running a company, do you want to have:
1. Rs. 1000 crore volume with Rs.5 crore profit
2. Rs.100 crore volume with Rs.60 crore profit

Large trade volume figures are irrelevant. It's the largest sources of profit that matter.

[Rishi_Tri]

Videos in near chaste Bihari explaining border disputes. Explains very well to the population that is not well versed in English. Either ways, explains very well the importance of the Lipulekh and DBO roads:

Lipulekh



Galwan



Listen especially at 12:20 and beyond in second video. This guy is doing wonderful job keeping the Non English India informed and motivated.

[Deans]

noob question. Who holds the heights at finger 4. I remember the images that Col. Dinny and Nitin Gokhale shared, west of finger 4 is actually a very narrow path upto a distance. You need to move in a single file.

I don't think we know. Red dots on a map does not do it for me.
The height of the ridge on finger 4 is marginally less than finger 3 (the reverse slops of which has the ITBP and now army, camp), so our camp is not visible from finger 4 heights. Also, the ridge has a sharp summit, you can't really pitch camp there.

[nam]

The Chinis are now in a blind. If they don't go back to status quo, either we will retaliate or there will major economic boycott.

If they go back, a major loss of face and no guarantee that there will no economic backlash.

Having said that..given our politicians and babus, chances are MoF will strike a "nobody has won" back to status quo deal, with slowly rolling back any economic boycott..They will have support of the usual suspects in the opposition.

We need the standoff to escalate..

[AshishA]

Btw I believe right now with all the simmering anger against the Chinese, Modi should give a speech on national TV calling for boycott of Chinese goods. I believe it will galvanise the people and will move many into action. Like what happened during the initial days of coronavirus when he asked us to light diyas and bang our utensils. He carries tremendous power over the people and people follow his word to the letter. It will put many businesses/govt agencies into overdrive.

[srai]

Emergency purchase of 12 Sukhoi and 21 Mig-29 from russia.

Source- Twitter @FrontalAssault1

Not sure, if that means we are preparing well..or just bulking up for back ups.
Could be replacement ordered for the crashed once in the case of Sukhois, Is the Mig 29 already ordered getting urgency now?

Nothing new about it.

12 Su-30MKI will be through HAL for attrition replacements.

21 MiG-29 are old mothballed airframes in storage in Russia. They will need to be upgraded to IAF UPG standards.

Still Pending final signature:
83 LCA Mk1A

LCA orders need to be increased!

Besides, any new orders at this point will take 24-36 months to materialize. Production orders need to be gap-free to continuously feed the military at desired intervals with a reserved capacity for “quick” scaling up.

[tapan]

Has PLAAF fought any war after the Korean war?

Yes, Tianamen Square. ..

[Suraj]

Btw I believe right now with all the simmering anger against the Chinese, Modi should give a speech on national TV calling for boycott of Chinese goods. I believe it will galvanise the people and will move many into action. Like what happened during the initial days of coronavirus when he asked us to light diyas and bang our utensils. He carries tremendous power over the people and people follow his word to the letter. It will put many businesses/govt agencies into overdrive.

Of course, and why just Modi ? We all have our smartphone and whatsapps to amplify that message 1000x.

[nam]

I am pretty sure, the PLA will create another clash in either Pangong or again at Galwan.

Or create another standoff at some other place.

[yensoy]

Btw I believe right now with all the simmering anger against the Chinese, Modi should give a speech on national TV calling for boycott of Chinese goods. I believe it will galvanise the people and will move many into action. Like what happened during the initial days of coronavirus when he asked us to light diyas and bang our utensils. He carries tremendous power over the people and people follow his word to the letter. It will put many businesses/govt agencies into overdrive.

Of course, and why just Modi ? We all have our smartphone and whatsapps to amplify that message 1000x.

I don't want him to say any such thing. These will be meaningless words and he will be painting himself into a corner besides looking foolish when Oppo sales don't show any dip (which they won't because people are people, and Oppo will announce some sale event to push its product).

Instead, I would like dear FM to come up with a "border protection tax" - very clearly called by that name - applicable to goods produced in our neighbouring countries which we don't have FTA with, and on brands owned by our neighbouring countries we don't have FTA with. Also, a tax on services such as advertising, promotions and sponsorship by such a brand.

The amounts can be small (2-3% tops) but it will carry the message loud and clear.

[Cyrano]

The LAC is a loosely defined narrow zone where claims are reduced to "we used to patrol until here" and "you used to patrol until there". The first ones to occupy heights and ridges hold the terrain. Until winter comes and the whole area becomes inhospitable. Next year when the ice thaws, the dance starts once again...

And the LAC is within Indian claimed territorial boundary, and actually represents the extent to which China has already intruded and occupied Indian territory. Pushing Chinese back to finger 8 or whatever is like fighting for scraps while half the cake has already been eaten.

Sad but true.

That's my point. When the area becomes inhospitable, the Chinese have to go back some 3000+ km, we have to go back 10 (while keeping a picket present there, as we have done in other equally inhospitable places. This is a game of patience and the Chinese are good at it. This time we shuld outlast them.

Deans ji, if you look at the mobilisation level of the Chinese, the report that the "tent" we destroyed at PP14 was an "arctic tent", I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese set up all weather camps a few kms from LAC on their side on the nearest available flat lands. It would mean building bases like the ones on Antarctica, or digging tunnels using expendable slave labour drawn from Uighur camps. They have the means and the will. Your assumption may end up surprising us once again when we go up next spring and see that they are already there, closer than before.

[khan]

I am pretty sure, the PLA will create another clash in either Pangong or again at Galwan.

Or create another standoff at some other place.

My money is on Pangong. The build up over there is massive.

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think the Chinese might have had some plan to “teach” India a lesson, which is now not working out so well because IA deployed so quickly.

So now we are at stalemate position waiting for winter.

Perhaps they planned on Cutting DBO road in 3-4 places, now at best they might be able to temporarily cut off in 1-2 places.

[khan]

Deans ji, if you look at the mobilisation level of the Chinese, the report that the "tent" we destroyed at PP14 was an "arctic tent", I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese set up all weather camps a few kms from LAC on their side on the nearest available flat lands. It would mean building bases like the ones on Antarctica, or digging tunnels using expendable slave labour drawn from Uighur camps. They have the means and the will. Your assumption may end up surprising us once again when we go up next spring and see that they are already there, closer than before.

It’s possible, but even now, they will need cold weather tents. They are 15K feet high.

[Suraj]

I don't want him to say any such thing. These will be meaningless words and he will be painting himself into a corner besides looking foolish when Oppo sales don't show any dip (which they won't because people are people, and Oppo will announce some sale event to push its product).

Instead, I would like dear FM to come up with a "border protection tax" - very clearly called by that name - applicable to goods produced in our neighbouring countries which we don't have FTA with, and on brands owned by our neighbouring countries we don't have FTA with. Also, a tax on services such as advertising, promotions and sponsorship by such a brand.

The amounts can be small (2-3% tops) but it will carry the message loud and clear.

Well they can't have a sale event if they're banned, and they can do nothing to circumvent the ban. Personally I'm in favor of an outright ban amounting to entire ranges of products - cheap consumer products primarily. The economy is only on the mend. People need to work. They can work making those things in India. There's no reason India should be importing sarees from China, as we're doing now.

[samirdiw]

On the front of trying to hurt China economically, I very much doubt it matters to them.

China exports $2.49 trillion (shy of Indian GDP by $0.5 trillion) and exports $77 billion to India. 3.1%

China imports $2.13 trillion and imports some $ 19 billion from India. Less than a percent.

This is more about saving ourselves as much as hurting them. $76 billion is not a walk in the park just because they export also to other countries

[Yayavar]

Oh yes, lets keep giving them $60 billion of our wealth every year. Why bother. It's only xx percent right ?

Please stop your nonsense.

That is certainly one way to look at it - give them $60 billion. The other is that does it matter to them. They will get that $60 billion from some other way, granted from someone else, not India. Besides that, India would still be spending those $60 billion elsewhere - due to the addiction you yourself mentioned.

I would prefer India look at how to grab their export markets. That would help India and hurt China.

With India it is +60 in Cheen's favour. With Japan or Vietnam or Aus it is negative-XX. Cannot compare the two. It is 3.1 % of total but somewhere like 12-15 % of the total positive trade balance. With USA it is something like 180B
So reducing that inflow hurts more with the positives for India including self-reliance and reduced deficit.
Good in all ways.

[AshishA]

Btw I believe right now with all the simmering anger against the Chinese, Modi should give a speech on national TV calling for boycott of Chinese goods. I believe it will galvanise the people and will move many into action. Like what happened during the initial days of coronavirus when he asked us to light diyas and bang our utensils. He carries tremendous power over the people and people follow his word to the letter. It will put many businesses/govt agencies into overdrive.

Of course, and why just Modi ? We all have our smartphone and whatsapps to amplify that message 1000x.

Agreed. And don't count Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc. Everywhere, this message should trend. I have already shared as much as possible. This opium like addiction should end as soon as possible.

But having said that let's not forget the importance of the words of leaders. If the leaders of our freedom struggle had not energized the people about boycotting British clothes/goods then I doubt it would have become that big.

If not Modi due to international obligations, what stops the other CMs, Governors and other elected officials to come out and support this BoycottChina movement? Chinese are the same as the East India Company. This view needs to reach as much people as possible.

And lastly, the Chinese are attempting to make their companies look Indian. Like RealMe CEO was blatantly lying about how his company is Indian despite it being clear that it's a subsidiary of BBK electronics, Chinese manufacturer. These jokers need to be identified and their lies busted.

[Cyrano]

From ToI

Boycott products made in China, close down restaurants, hotels selling Chinese food: Athawale

Union minister Ramdas Athawale has said all restaurants and hotels that sell Chinese food in India should be closed down and products made in China should be boycotted. "China is a country that betrays. India should boycott all products that are made in China. Chinese food and all restaurants and hotels that sell Chinese food in India should be closed down," Athawale, Minister of State for Social Justice and Empowerment, said in a tweet.

Thats idiotic. I bet you'll find nothing Chinese in the Chinese food in India except the name.

[samirdiw]

From the maps it looks like Galwan was a diversion and the real change was between finger 4-8

So can someone answer these two questions and hypothesize the 3rd?
1. Did the permanent road structure from Finger 8-4 come up after Modi?
2. Did the 250-500 structures from Finger 8-4 in the area come up after Modi?

If yes, then the status quo has changed. What was grey area and an area where our troops could patrol is no longer in our control. What do you think the govt will do to make 4-8 a grey area at least and remove the road and permanent structures? If not then everyone here can agree that the govt has failed to stand its ground.

[khan]

Finger 8-4 road was done during Kargil.

[VinodTK]

One quick reform needed is to find the three main guys in the MoD procurement chain: Babu, DGQA, Military and dismiss them for the umpteen delays in acquiring Indian made weapon systems.
All should be jailed for criminal negligence.
What stopped the Tejas Order from being given? What stopped the 40 MKI from HAL and now go buy 12 MKI from Russia?

And dismiss the OFB trade Union controlled by Opposition parties.
No political party affiliation for such an important industry.
Declare OFB as an essential industry and ban political party affiliation for the union.
If they protest ban the union.

Philip, India deployments are not lacking in the theater, we match and in some sectors, we have more.

We should dhoti shiver but if it comes to chaddi shiver need to stop.

Take the "three main guys in the MoD procurement chain" to Siachen strip them naked make them stand on the glacier, and tell them no clothes or going back until all the negotationa / paperwork is complete.

So frustrating ....

[Deans]

That's my point. When the area becomes inhospitable, the Chinese have to go back some 3000+ km, we have to go back 10 (while keeping a picket present there, as we have done in other equally inhospitable places. This is a game of patience and the Chinese are good at it. This time we shuld outlast them.

Deans ji, if you look at the mobilisation level of the Chinese, the report that the "tent" we destroyed at PP14 was an "arctic tent", I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese set up all weather camps a few kms from LAC on their side on the nearest available flat lands. It would mean building bases like the ones on Antarctica, or digging tunnels using expendable slave labour drawn from Uighur camps. They have the means and the will. Your assumption may end up surprising us once again when we go up next spring and see that they are already there, closer than before.

I understand your point, but its not just about infra - though google earth/ maps (which I have been following for 2 years now), shows only a fraction of the infrastructure to house troops that we have. The Chinese have to even get water from a long distance away. More than the weather, its the tolerance of the body to prolonged exposure to high altitude. We learnt how to manage the hard way, by decades on the Siachen glacier, or North Sikkim. No one in the Chinese force has ever been in combat or served at high altitude. Over time, people inexperienced in both make mistakes.

[samirdiw]

Finger 8-4 road was done during Kargil.

Thanks for the response. So Vajpayeeji was the culprit.... I guess his hands were tied due to the war.

So now we have these 500 structures and preventing our troops from patrolling. They have made their stake and ball is on our court to remove them?

Can we land troops on the other side and force them to surrender by moving in from both sides? Not sure if we dont have the capability and will to act then what leverage our ecm has in the talks.

Sorry I am not able to see what you guys are seeing.

[Deans]

From the maps it looks like Galwan was a diversion and the real change was between finger 4-8

So can someone answer these two questions and hypothesize the 3rd?
1. Did the permanent road structure from Finger 8-4 come up after Modi?
2. Did the 250-500 structures from Finger 8-4 in the area come up after Modi?

If yes, then the status quo has changed. What was grey area and an area where our troops could patrol is no longer in our control. What do you think the govt will do to make 4-8 a grey area at least and remove the road and permanent structures? If not then everyone here can agree that the govt has failed to stand its ground.

Finger 5-8 after Kargil. They used to patrol in vehicles, we did it occasionally on foot. I'm not sure how authentic are the satellite pics purportedly showing 250-500 structures.

[Cyrano]

I take your point. So what would be a desirable outcome for us ?

That the Chinese pull back to status quo ante positions before May ? That they also destroy the structures built and ramped up until now ? That they accept our claim of the LAC wherever we have differing perceptions and leave it as LAC? Or convert our LAC positions into permanent border (that would mean territory already nibbled is theirs for ever)? I don't think they are ready for this any time soon since they want to nibble more in the future.

What w(sh)ould India consider as a win out of the current situation?

[Iyersan]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... ssion=true
Three days after clashes in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh left 20 Indian soldiers dead, the Chinese on Thursday evening released 10 Indian Army personnel, including a Lieutenant Colonel and three Majors, from their custody.

A security source told The Hindu that all 10 persons were released around 5 p.m. after an agreement was reached at the Major General-level talks on Wednesday evening and they were returned unharmed.

[Manish_Sharma]

Each word of this post should be etched in Gold.

_/\_

Thanks for clarity of thought.

If that is the case, then there is no reason to have this forum. Might as well go through social media. The point of all of this is to piece together an accurate picture from publicly available information.....

It's one thing for Think Tank Bharat-Rakshak to "piece together an accurate picture from publicly available information..." and another thing to constantly curse and rona-dhona over Govt. not giving minute to minute update about on going action.

Take example of last page some poster was objecting "....why Govt. say only 3 saininks die, when actually 20 had died?"

The war is very fluid, vast part of media+opposition is Breaking India Forces which will go to any length not only to harm current Govt. but nation itself.

News will come in its own time, no one criticizes Gin Pig's silence over the matter in their country, no Gobartimes or people's daily is giving details about the skirmish where we lost 20 and they lost 43.

What will BRF Forum do if they get news of 20 martyrs on 15th June instead of 18th June? The BRF is a long time 'Strategic Think Tank' we can't behave like 24x7 News Channels FEVERISHLY hunting news.

Let the picture flower in right time and come out when Army+Intelligence agencies think is the right time to come out.

Cursing Army's Press Corps as incompetent OR Govt. actually plays in the hands of kavita krishnans, arundhati roys, rahul gandhis & NDTVs.

Have patience, in 15 days OR a month picture will become maybe more murkier OR clearer then BRFites can dissect and analyse.

We still have posts and threads which dissect and analyse wars that happened 40 or 50 years back.

Mao was asked in 1950 "What kind of effect you think French Revolution had on the world?" Mao answered "Its too early to understand the effects of French Revolution."

[ldev]

Finger 8-4 road was done during Kargil.

Thanks for the response. So Vajpayeeji was the culprit.... I guess his hands were tied due to the war.

So now we have these 500 structures and preventing our troops from patrolling. They have made their stake and ball is on our court to remove them?

Can we land troops on the other side and force them to surrender by moving in from both sides? Not sure if we dont have the capability and will to act then what leverage our ecm has in the talks.

Sorry I am not able to see what you guys are seeing.

The road upto Finger 4 was constructed by the Chinese during Kargil. They blacktopped it later. If you watch one of the Stratglobal videos with a Lt. Gen. Rakesh Sharma, he says that there is a narrow ledge approaching Finger 4 from the west, i.e. from the ITBP camp near Finger 3. No vehicles can pass there, it is single file on foot. So the PLA, when they see the Indian patrol party leave their camp and begin to walk the 2 km towards Finger 4, they leave their camp at Sirijap in vehicles and by the time the Indian patrol reaches Finger 4, the PLA has already arrived there in their vehicles and block the Indian patrol from proceeding beyond that point. That was the position up until this confrontation. Now it looks like they are building permanent structures at Finger 4 effectively moving the LAC from Finger 8 to Finger 4. So the no man's disputed area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 is no longer disputed according to the PLA but under their control.