To those asking, (and since it’s been reported now) — that’s what my tweet below 6 hours ago was meant to convey. And since the story will be in tomorrow’s papers, if you’re interested in hearing about it from me, here you go:
The only SOP should be shoot at sight . We cannot maintain the charade of believing the Chinese as a principled foe. They are same as Paki terrorists and with their mutilation tactics they have lost the last vestiges of a professional army.Ambar wrote:I feel you. I sleep terribly as is but the last 48 hours has taken a terrible toll on me, i am glad covid means i can work from home unshaved, with blood shot eyes and crazy hair. As much as we are emotional about our military and our nation, the hard fact is war should always be the last option but an option nonetheless. China has never encountered a India that gives a damn about their gdp or their supposed military might and refuses to roll over and walk quietly into the dark. So accustomed are they to encroach, put structures and claim it was always theirs that they thought they can continue the process with no fight back. First at Doklum and now in Galwan they seen a new India that can punch back ( and quite literally ). If finger 4 to 8 had a road leading to the chinese camp since 1999 then its unlikely they would move out. They also know what happens in future when they try their salami tactics . To get our men back safe was the utmost priority and the government has done that . It may be tough to swallow but its best to wage a war from a position of strength and the way things are we are on the back foot. With the pakis we understand them, their mentality, their culture, their language their thinking, its like Israel and Palestine, but with the chinese despite our long history we are only now beginning to understand their cunning, wicked ways. The military SOPs and ROEs will need to be altered, we need to impose economic cost on China, rapidly improve the border infrastructure, clear military procurement , and show china that 2 can play the game. Its a 3500 kms long border, there's nothing that stops us from encroaching their territory over and over again.chola wrote:If this true and they have released 10 jawans including officers then we are in de-escalation mode.
Forget it. If we make a move now, it would be something extraordinarily unpredictable that our nation will never do because of our honor. We are simply unlike the pakis and chinis. When got Abhi back we de-escalated and accepted the F-16 as the victory. Now with the prisoners back, we will de-escalate and accept the 43 as out victory.
I hope, truly hope, we will do something out-of-the-box and go air strike if not a general land attack along the LaC. But I know it is unlikely. I sound like an emotional idiot but that's how I feel. You'll be seeing a lot less of me. Completely drained. No sleep for days. Hoping.
That should be at Pangong Tso. There is lot of noise all over that India has done operations there. Now my question the EIGHT fingers above is more relevantfanne wrote:So guys here is my understanding of the situation SORRY THE REAL SITUATION- Mostly from open sources, two sources that are not open, and one is not GOI (the other is to an extent of gup shup, no real or otherwise operational secrets are discussed). So disclaimer, to whoever is reading, please I am not revealing anything , it is mostly connecting dots and doing some logical analysis. Please feel free to delete it if it goes far.
So my take on the sequence
1. T+0 hours - Galwan mishap happens, PLA goes back on its word (the right word is betrayal or inability to keep your word) and kills some unarmed IA soldiers. It turns out later that there is more loss in PLA side because of their stupidity but that info only is apparent after T+ x HOURS. No body yet knows this outcome.
1 b) Some of our men also get taken hostages in this
2 a). The political and military leadership had already gamed many situations (including what if Chinese fire the first shot and kill unarmed IA soldiers).
2 b )Per the plan, IA already knows what should be the second step (targets, logistics, backup all preplanned). All moves are gamed. Some other place of IA choosing is pre-selected, forces move in. We have huge element of surprise plus the force is overwhelming and dimensions used for this would have happened months in the escalation order (i.e. what should have been done months in the fighting was our opening shot). Totally unexpected by the chinese
3.T+y hours, goal achieved, some IA casualty and more chicom casualty (mostly because we had element of surprise), area captured, reinforced
4) The beauty many Chinese soldier who had previously come to do salami slicing cannot now go back. They are trapped with IA from all sides. We have captured that was not until unequivocally in our hand.
5. Total death in operations 1 and 2 from IA =20
6. Now negotiation starts. Friends of Chines and TSP in India are all over the news with news of Indian soldier hostages. But within a day or two that news disappear. Why, well we have surrounded a much larger occupying force that will be slaughtered if anything were to happen to Indian hostages. Quickly the hostages are released. (Hint have you heard that news).
7. Chinese have a bigger dilemma, what to do with the occupying force - if they return in exchange they give up that land, if they don't return, well they are at our mercy. And the situation is as such.
8. This round we have won, let no one tell you otherwise.
9. If you want to know, all of this is true or not, follow the media that has tried hard to prop up a scion of political party that has an agreement with CCP for consultation on all matters. That media is wrongly showing a map and shifting goalpost to say that IA has won nothing. Then look atone of BR person map to see the right map and see where we are now.
10. Chinese assurance are not worth the paper they are written on. You thought TSP is chutiya in this respect, chicoms will have TSP for lunch on this. Best of luck at their friendship and any agreement that they have. It will be fun to watch who will sell the other faster, my bet is on the Chinese.
11. There assurance of xxx in exchange of dead bodies flown downstream means 0. And we know it.
So what will happen next? Cuz I don't think Indian govt will believe that unless people are given a victory over Chinis, they will be pacified. The anger and now the mutilations, it will be political suicide for the govt. and demoralize the army if things de-escalate now.fanne wrote:So guys here is my understanding of the situation SORRY THE REAL SITUATION- Mostly from open sources, two sources that are not open, and one is not GOI (the other is to an extent of gup shup, no real or otherwise operational secrets are discussed). So disclaimer, to whoever is reading, please I am not revealing anything , it is mostly connecting dots and doing some logical analysis. Please feel free to delete it if it goes far.
So my take on the sequence
1. T+0 hours - Galwan mishap happens, PLA goes back on its word (the right word is betrayal or inability to keep your word) and kills some unarmed IA soldiers. It turns out later that there is more loss in PLA side because of their stupidity but that info only is apparent after T+ x HOURS. No body yet knows this outcome.
1 b) Some of our men also get taken hostages in this
2 a). The political and military leadership had already gamed many situations (including what if Chinese fire the first shot and kill unarmed IA soldiers).
2 b )Per the plan, IA already knows what should be the second step (targets, logistics, backup all preplanned). All moves are gamed. Some other place of IA choosing is pre-selected, forces move in. We have huge element of surprise plus the force is overwhelming and dimensions used for this would have happened months in the escalation order (i.e. what should have been done months in the fighting was our opening shot). Totally unexpected by the chinese
3.T+y hours, goal achieved, some IA casualty and more chicom casualty (mostly because we had element of surprise), area captured, reinforced
4) The beauty many Chinese soldier who had previously come to do salami slicing cannot now go back. They are trapped with IA from all sides. We have captured that was not until unequivocally in our hand.
5. Total death in operations 1 and 2 from IA =20
6. Now negotiation starts. Friends of Chines and TSP in India are all over the news with news of Indian soldier hostages. But within a day or two that news disappear. Why, well we have surrounded a much larger occupying force that will be slaughtered if anything were to happen to Indian hostages. Quickly the hostages are released. (Hint have you heard that news).
7. Chinese have a bigger dilemma, what to do with the occupying force - if they return in exchange they give up that land, if they don't return, well they are at our mercy. And the situation is as such.
8. This round we have won, let no one tell you otherwise.
9. If you want to know, all of this is true or not, follow the media that has tried hard to prop up a scion of political party that has an agreement with CCP for consultation on all matters. That media is wrongly showing a map and shifting goalpost to say that IA has won nothing. Then look atone of BR person map to see the right map and see where we are now.
10. Chinese assurance are not worth the paper they are written on. You thought TSP is chutiya in this respect, chicoms will have TSP for lunch on this. Best of luck at their friendship and any agreement that they have. It will be fun to watch who will sell the other faster, my bet is on the Chinese.
11. There assurance of xxx in exchange of dead bodies flown downstream means 0. And we know it.
.Three days after clashes in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh left 20 Indian soldiers dead, the Chinese on Thursday evening released 10 Indian Army personnel, including a Lieutenant Colonel and three Majors, from their custody.
A security source told The Hindu that all 10 persons were released around 5 p.m. after an agreement was reached at the Major General-level talks on Wednesday evening and they were returned unharmed.
Separately, the Army clarified in a statement that there were “no Indian troops missing in action”.
‘Soldiers were armed’
In another development, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said the Indian troops, who were outnumbered and attacked by the Chinese side, carried arms.
“All troops on border duty always carry arms, especially when leaving post. Those at Galwan on June 15 did so. Long-standing practice (as per 1996 & 2005 agreements) not to use firearms during faceoffs,” Dr. Jaishankar said on Twitter, in response to a tweet from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
Article VI of the 1996 agreement between India and China on “Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in the military field along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas” says, “Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometers from the line of actual control. This prohibition shall not apply to routine firing activities in small arms firing ranges.”
Commenting on the 1996 agreement, former Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. H.S. Panag said these agreements apply to border management and not while dealing with a tactical military situation. “Lastly when lives of soldiers or security of post/territory threatened, Commander on the spot can use all weapons at his disposal including artillery,” he said on Twitter.
The third round of talks at the Major General-level were held in the Galwan area. Specific outcomes from Thursday’s meeting were not immediately known, but a source said the talks were positive and there would be more meetings in the coming days. The effort was to reduce tensions on the ground and implement the consensus agreed on June 6 for de-escalation, the source added.
The Army had stated that both sides had disengaged from the site of the clash. However, both sides continue to retain a large number of troops in the general Galwan area following the build-up along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) after the violent scuffle at Pangong Tso on May 5 and the standoff since.
In the first combat fatalities in 45 years along the LAC, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash after they were attacked by Chinese troops. About 80 Indian troops were also injured and all of them are said to be stable.
The Chinese PLA Western Theatre Command spokesman Senior Colonel Zhang Shuili said on Tuesday that the clash in the Galwan Valley had led to casualties on both sides, but so far China has not revealed the number of any dead or wounded.
The Foreign Ministers of the two countries held a telephone conversation on Wednesday in an effort to reduce tensions following the killing of the Indian soldiers
Yes but I am afraid it is too late for that. A single bullet will start kinetic action in the border given the huge reinforcements on both sides. So GOI has to make a lot of calculations on how to calibrate response. Problem is, I cannot find a single open-source analysis of Indian objectives in the border. There is vague speculation about the Chinese objective. Depending on that events will unfold in the coming weeks.Ambar wrote: The only SOP should be shoot at sight. We cannot maintain the charade of believing the Chinese as a principled foe. They are same as Paki terrorists and with their mutilation tactics, they have lost the last vestiges of a professional army.
They would have paraded them and made a spectacle like Pakis had done with Abhi. "Released them as a peace gesture"suryag wrote:I for one believe in Fanne Sir's assertions, consider this, someone who has treacherously murdered our CO and his men without regards to RoE suddenly changes their mind and releases 10 of our men(officers in that). Hows that possible unless we had some very good bargaining chip in our bag? Are we fools to believe that some great goodness suddenly came into their heart one day after they acted in such a deceitful manner?
Agreed, a "qatl ka raat" China Edition was conveyed.suryag wrote:I for one believe in Fanne Sir's assertions, consider this, someone who has treacherously murdered our CO and his men without regards to RoE suddenly changes their mind and releases 10 of our men(officers in that). Hows that possible unless we had some very good bargaining chip in our bag? Are we fools to believe that some great goodness suddenly came into their heart one day after they acted in such a deceitful manner?
the real takleef is China has to accept what they lost. The sooooooper poooowwwwwer has to say I lost please give back.fanne wrote:What happens next - What do you mean, you keep what you win. If they want to take it back they have to fight. We have our forces from the new point all the way back while Chinese have their forces from this new point. Situation similar to what was in the past, only that the new point is some more on the Chinese side. We will fight to keep it, as we fought to keep what was ours in the past.
Now big game - what is it and how that plays out, I don't know, I wish I could see the future. But before we go there, what is the Chinese ultimate goal or goals? That will tell us what could be possible new moves.
Precisely. If not at the fingers then at some other location where there has been a troop buildup.suryag wrote:If this encirclement is indeed true in a months time it will be all seen in sat images once we give their folks a safe passage and build our own settlements across the fingers
I want to respond, but please move this to the IAF News and Discussion thread.Philip wrote:If the Ru arms are useless why is the IAF wanting them? Remember that the backbone of the IAF are the 272 MKIs,superior to the Chin Flanker clones.
Mort,I too would like to see a couple of hundred LCAs in the sky,but they are less capable being smaller ,are single-engined,can't carry BMos and are really replacements for the retiring hundreds of MIG-21s.They would be great against the Paki JF-17s,etc.,but the border with China stretches over 3000km and we have to hit their infra targets deep inside Tibet etc., to sever their road/ rail links with the rest of China. We need long-legged strike aircraft and we have only a few tankers. The prod. rate of LCAs is pathetic.8 /yr. Even if it is doubled to 16 it will take until 2030 for the 160+ you want built! The need is now. We need to obtain extra aircraft of types in service,as many as we can, as their induction would be very simple and cost effective,hence the extra MKIs and 29s. Building another 2 sqds. of MKIs upgraded to Super Sukhoi std. at Nasik should be cleared.The desi content of an MKI is now over 70%,I think even more than the LCA.
Sumair wrote:SIr just don't understand your cryptic language. I reiterate, if all is already in the public domain then what is the need for cryptology.
I think Somedev sir prefers Mahatma Gandhi.Deans wrote:And who would you prefer as your wartime leader ?somdev wrote:Some guys here are hell bent on proving Modiji is sacrosanct. I know I will be banned for this but I have given notice to admins already to quit.
Remember nobody is indispensible in front of nation. Nation is first and foremost and it takes a certain amount of emotional connect to wage wars for 'ATMA SAMMAN'. Indira Gandhi with frugal resources delivered 1971 by way of leadership and statemanship. If Modiji and his team cannot deliver then they have to go - that is power of democracy. BTW, I am no way a Congress fan!
Well they were also talking about how disengagement, talks to resolve issues and what did we get? Pre-planned attack on our forces. Never trust what Chinese say. We should have shot first, asked questions later.VikramS wrote:Sumair wrote:SIr just don't understand your cryptic language. I reiterate, if all is already in the public domain then what is the need for cryptology.
Like the PA always wants to preserve its H&D, loss of face for the Chinese is a major issue.
So India is better off keeping the narrative low key, while delivering on the ground.
Speak Less, but carry (& use) the big stick.
End goal is to achieve your military/political objectives with the minimal loss of men, and long term consequences.
Given that the next round of elections are some time away, there is no political need for highlighting any gains right away.
The Chinese have been very reserved; they have acknowledged casualties, and that the IA entered their camps, and are talking about a three front war with India. That is not the talk of someone who is ascendent. In fact, they sound a lot like the Pakistanis saying that China will save them!
Why they released the men? Occam's razor says the most simple answer probably along the lines of what has happened in the past with other govts.suryag wrote:I for one believe in Fanne Sir's assertions, consider this, someone who has treacherously murdered our CO and his men without regards to RoE suddenly changes their mind and releases 10 of our men(officers in that). Hows that possible unless we had some very good bargaining chip in our bag? Are we fools to believe that some great goodness suddenly came into their heart one day after they acted in such a deceitful manner?
All the other times, Chinese didn’t have a full division of troops behind them - with their artillery.Davidrock wrote:China kept intruding and going back in Chumar, Despang, Doklam, and we thought they will go back. But not this time.
You will be surprised what can happen in that terrain.Davidrock wrote:Well, as history unfolds, most of us here do not know the exact picture of what happened.
However I am certain that the land slide thing, never happened.
100 of our troops cannot be injured without putting a brutal fight, the nature of which we dont know yet.
The land slide thing is just offered as a face saver to the chinese.
This is what we are talking about is it not. The failure of our leadership to understand the Chinese intentions.Davidrock wrote:Regarding the shots not being fired, I guess we are too slow.
When I failed my SSB, I realized one of the reasons was that I was not swift in my retaliation. I convinced myself all these years that, its good I was not selected, because better men are protecting the nation. I still believe so.
But, I think we should have retaliated in early april, when they started building in grey zones.
This move is like how Alexander did across the river with Porus, he kept moving and porus lowered his guard. Then the great attacked.
China kept intruding and going back in Chumar, Despang, Doklam, and we thought they will go back. But not this time.
This is what I am talking about. The Chinese cane in force, with artillery. GOI & IA are not morons, they had to have known they won’t leave easily.ks_sachin wrote:
This is what we are talking about is it not. The failure of our leadership to understand the Chinese intentions.
Even after Balakot did we not expect the PAF to do the stupid thing they did?
Balakot is a fair comparison. Planning has to take into account all the potential situations and one of these should have been what if they decided to fire from within their airspace.khan wrote:This is what I am talking about. The Chinese cane in force, with artillery. GOI & IA are not morons, they had to have known they won’t leave easily.ks_sachin wrote:
This is what we are talking about is it not. The failure of our leadership to understand the Chinese intentions.
Even after Balakot did we not expect the PAF to do the stupid thing they did?
The only rational explanation is they have something up their sleeves (like Fannie is suggesting). If they don’t - then they really are morons.
This Balakot thing isn’t really a fair comparison.
AshishAcharya wrote:Yes it's about 2 months all this started and we don't even know what their real goals are. What is their objective? All this is shooting in the dark unless we know what those damn PLA mercenaries and their CCP bosses are thinking.
Fanneji, you can already see this the gloom that has fallen over this forum and will fall over this country in the coming days even though we would have actually won the first round. How can we convince people that it is the Chinese that are in trouble unless govt releases some kind of info withheld till now which many here believe won't happen as we have somehow de escalated.
Lastly, I would request all forum members to please trust what the govt and army is doing and not react to every info that comes out with euphoria or gloom and doom.
The common people trust NaMo and the govt. It's not an issue except for hyper critics.How can we convince people that it is the Chinese that are in trouble unless govt releases some kind of info withheld till now which many here believe won't happen as we have somehow de-escalated.
At a strategic level, it is quite clear that PAF cannot make a dent. So we gave them some leeway probably.ks_sachin wrote:This is what we are talking about is it not. The failure of our leadership to understand the Chinese intentions.Davidrock wrote:Regarding the shots not being fired, I guess we are too slow.
When I failed my SSB, I realized one of the reasons was that I was not swift in my retaliation. I convinced myself all these years that, its good I was not selected, because better men are protecting the nation. I still believe so.
But, I think we should have retaliated in early april, when they started building in grey zones.
This move is like how Alexander did across the river with Porus, he kept moving and porus lowered his guard. Then the great attacked.
China kept intruding and going back in Chumar, Despang, Doklam, and we thought they will go back. But not this time.
Even after Balakot did we not expect the PAF to do the stupid thing they did?