India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 19 Jun 2020 07:28

khan wrote:The only foolproof way to stop the incident that happened the day after Balakot would be to be at a formal state of war with Pakistan & shoot down everything in the air.

Barring a state of war, they have every right to fly whatever they want in their airspace & if a few of their planes decide to make a run for LOC it is impossible to 100% stop this (especially if they don’t cross - which they didn’t).

As I said, Balakot (which happened in 30 mins) isn’t a reasonable comparison for this. This thing has been developing for over a month now with Chinese troops moving in strength - and everyone saw it. While idiot “analysts” on Twitter were warning us about this in the most vocal possible fashion, GOI was underplaying the whole thing, treating it like an ordinary incursion - which they had to have known it wasn’t.

The only reasonable explanation is GOI & IA have something up their sleeve - or they are morons (which I refuse to believe).

Yes they do. It's called KALI 10000. The Chinese are Pork Sausage and Toast.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 07:31

ORBAT EXperts I am trying to piece together the AoR from the Indian part.

Any one know more than 14 Corps AoR?

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 19 Jun 2020 07:51

Also if I may add, there would be a couple of hundred SF operators like Saurabh Shekhawat's crew already behind enemy lines with installed equipment up the hills ready to create cloudbursts over the Chinese as and when required.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 19 Jun 2020 07:54

khan wrote: This thing has been developing for over a month now with Chinese troops moving in strength - and everyone saw it. While idiot “analysts” on Twitter were warning us about this in the most vocal possible fashion, GOI was underplaying the whole thing, treating it like an ordinary incursion - which they had to have known it wasn’t.

The only reasonable explanation is GOI & IA have something up their sleeve - or they are morons (which I refuse to believe).

IA did move forces including 155mm guns to the sector. IAF was flying CAPs. There is a good amount of troop movement towards the border. IAF even started constructing some emergency landing strips in kashmir along highways, and did touch & go on some of the highways in UP.

It is not that the Indian Armed forces did not respond to the Chinese buildup.

What India did not do was not make a big song and dance about the build-up. The reason is simple:

If you start making a big-deal out of it, AND you want the Chinese to back off you are creating a stiuation where Chinese will lose face.

Knowing the PLA and CCP, the loss of face is what they can not tolerate.

Things were going according to plan with deescalations planned. Things went wrong when IA burnt down their Artic Tent and the CO was attacked.

That the IA went in and cut them up with bayonets is acknowledged. And we do not know how the casualties attributed to the landslide happened. For all we know the landslide is another face saving mechanism for the PLA.

I personally feel that the actual situation has been handled well.

-> IA got their captives back
-> PLA also got a bloody nose which they are blaming on a landslide
-> More importantly, the discipline and valor of the IA and their skill in mountain warfare is also something the PLA has seen first hand.

Interesting thing is that a week ago we got this article about Indian mountain corps being the best from a Chinese expert.
https://eurasiantimes.com/indian-armys- ... rts-admit/

It seems that whatever moves the PLA was making; the IA did respond appropriately. And the PLA was already praising the IA before the deescalation was unrolled.

We may argue whether the CO should have gone in alone or sent a junior officer. Or whether IA should also have armed itself with specialized clubs.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 19 Jun 2020 08:01

Whenever the Chinese seem magnanimous, it means they are hiding losses / biding time / fearful of reprisal.

For PM Modi to make a strong and unambiguous public statement the likes of which he made after Pulwama is not done as empty chest thumping. Our bravehearts should have done a ferocious job in giving a bloody nose to PRA.

The full details will leak slowly and with deniability. After our soldiers were violently attacked in May, our army isn't naive to not have a plan B. This whole thing about landslide killing 2x chinese might be a face saving option given to Chinese to avoid further escalation after we extracted revenge.

Connecting the dots, I do believe that we extracted revenge for Col. Babu and his lions, but only after loss of precious lives. But we are yet to claim back all the land still occupied by Cheen.

The biggest giveaway that Cheen has lost 2x or 3x soldiers than us is the fact that there is no vigorous denial as is usual from them to such reports including US intelligence reports published in many mainstream US media. They should be afraid that IA has photographic or video evidence of the revenge attacks and have to swallow the humiliating landslide cover given to them by IA.

Note that it suits India fine to paint us as noble saints and Cheen as barbarians. It's a game of perceptions. Cheen cannot counter and say 'no you guys were also cunning and murdered much larger unsuspecting cheen soldiers in cold blood'. It was naive of me to initially belive that landslide theory. It was a dead giveaway that we are giving a face saving option to Cheen to back off after giving a deadly punch. Bravo, IA!

In such matters of honor and strategic import, Modi isn't used to giving empty rhetoric. I belive in the statement of our PM that we will vigorously defend every inch. Junior officers of military or diplomats could not have bargained it away for retrieval of our PoWs. We should have had some bargaining chip like fanne-ji says.

Finally atleast BR members should be clear on this. In these matters of treachery and betrayal, we have long experience dealing with BATs and every trick and tactic they had tried over past decades. Since surgical strikes, India's tactic to deal with enemies who don't honor their dead is to silently inflict 2x losses to them. Doomed if they speak of casualties and doomed if they don't. We have played the same trick against Cheen. Also our current dispensation is very tight lipped. Unlike UPA times we don't know what really happened in some of our exploits sometimes years after. There is a reason Pak and Cheen fear current govt.

Now let's discuss specifics of way forward:

1. Is PP 14 taken back by us? There are conflicting reports. Who has control over it now?
2. What is the current ground situation in fingers 4 to 8.
3. What's the overall current ground situation in the valley area.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 19 Jun 2020 08:09

Here's my prediction:

""" In today's all-party meet, GoI will reiterate that given PRC (or better still, PLA) refuses to mutually verify and settle the LAC, we in keeping with their spirit revise and update our claim lines to pre-1962 status and the original McMahon line all across the LAC.

Further, as PRC has claimed parts of India's sovereign territory while instigating India's neighbours to lay claim to Indian land, they have violated a One-India policy following which, in just reciprocation, GoI gives formal notice of a rethink of the One-china policy which Delhi has scrupulously followed until now.

Only. """

+++
There. See? GoI would have legitimately taken the venal opposition and the anxious country into confidence in one swoop that way, meeting all standards of democratic propriety.

What happens next will be a multi-front prep for steady and sustained economic disengagement with cheena and exposing cheeni agents in India (INC and CPM). In this mahaul, an accusation of siding with cheena against Bharath will be sure to cause bellyaches to any party - even one as shameless as INC and CPM and heck AIMIM if need be. Only.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Jun 2020 08:15

How important is the induction of Rafale with multiple meteors, atleast 100 in this situation? Can we get them 20 days earlier?

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 19 Jun 2020 08:17

If the map is showing finger 8 is beyond Sirjap, then we are either in control of Sirjap or have surrounded it. I support the scenario/explanation as presented by fanne ji.

--------------------------

So the Chines FM was correct in saying that "ghar mein ghus ke mare" and asking EAM to tell the troops to back-off. WTF did the Chinese FM think that if they attack on our side of the LAC it is kosher. Well you have finally met a professional army.

No wonder they gave up the IA soldiers.

For those folks who beleive that the Chinese "gave he soldiers as a goodwill gesture" or that "they wrested a promise from India", I will only say this much - please go and read the books on the conflict in 1962 and when they returned the POWs. The only reason that they returned them was that they were looking straight into the barrel of an 155mm gun.

Some of my Father-in-Law & Mother-in-Law's coursemates (all AMC Doctors) were never returned to this day.

-----------
Bekar Patel ,aka, Aakar Ahmed Patel, who masquerades as a journalist among other roles that he plays, was derisively asking about the "Ghar mein ghus ke" etc. I guess for proof we need to send him on a fact finding mission to the PLA camp. Even they wouldn't want such a poisonous cretin.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 19 Jun 2020 08:21

Ramana sir, all BRFers will be happy to contribute to Army martyr welfare fund regardless of their opinion. Speaking for myself, though I have never doubted GoI and Army, I didn't realize revenge was already taken and the landslide excuse was to give a face saving way out to the enemy. Biggest lesson for Cheen would be the skill and tactics and swift execution by our bravehearts. Multiple such lessons should be given to take back occupied areas and do reverse salami slicing to bring them to settle borders on our terms.

I hope a day comes when we don't need to bother about giving a face saving way out for the enemy and get to humiliate them like we do to Pakis.

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jun 2020 08:28

schinnas wrote:Now let's discuss specifics of way forward:

1. Is PP 14 taken back by us? There are conflicting reports. Who has control over it now?
2. What is the current ground situation in fingers 4 to 8.
3. What's the overall current ground situation in the valley area.

To me, this is the real test. We might write long posts about IA not being stupid, hear rumors about operations - and so on, but ultimately the situation on the ground is the only real metric we have to measure success.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 19 Jun 2020 08:35

ks_sachin wrote:
Davidrock wrote:Well, as history unfolds, most of us here do not know the exact picture of what happened.

However I am certain that the land slide thing, never happened.

100 of our troops cannot be injured without putting a brutal fight, the nature of which we dont know yet.

The land slide thing is just offered as a face saver to the chinese.
You will be surprised what can happen in that terrain.

Hari Nair Sir / Akshay Sir or Deejay sir can best answer that.

I have seen the terrain close up. Will ask the high command. Our Bn was there or close by.

Oh ok, didnt know you were a veteran.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 19 Jun 2020 08:36

Going by satellite pictures the answers to schinnas' qns appear to be as follows.
1. Yes, IA is in control of PP 14.
2. PLA is in control of the area betweeb finger 4 and finger 8. It has occupied this territory.
3. In Galwan valley there is a large PLA presence starting 500m from their side of the LAC and going several km deep into the valley.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 19 Jun 2020 08:42

Disclaimer: long post.

khan wrote:
nam wrote:I am pretty sure, the PLA will create another clash in either Pangong or again at Galwan.

Or create another standoff at some other place.
My money is on Pangong. The build up over there is massive.

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think the Chinese might have had some plan to “teach” India a lesson, which is now not working out so well because IA deployed so quickly.

So now we are at stalemate position waiting for winter.

Perhaps they planned on Cutting DBO road in 3-4 places, now at best they might be able to temporarily cut off in 1-2 places.

The Chinese like to do misdirection, so if the build up is massive at Pangong, expect them to do the actual something elsewhere. As I see it, there are three ways to look at the situation and guess what their objective(s) is(are):

1. They want to cut-off our hold on DBO and Siachen so they can use the easier Karakoram route to link their KKH into Pakistan proper.
To put it mildly, easier said than done. While they can try and cut off the DS-DBO road, even for which they'll have to fight a long and grueling battle, and assuming they succeed in doing this - then what? Their next step would be to move through Saser La and get to Sasoma, where we are well entrenched, being the supply route to Siachen and having been there for decades. Another grueling battle. Let's say they win here too, for argument's sake. Then what? They cannot go north as there is only the minor issue of one of the largest glaciers in the world. They cannot go west as there is the formidable Saltoro ridge here, where our troops are also well entrenched and there is no route for a road. On top of this, our troops on Saltoro cannot be evicted that easily as they hold the commanding heights and are being supplied by air even today and would continue to get those. Sure, their position there would be untenable beyond a point if the Sasoma route is closed for ground supply, but while they are there, they can pose enough of an irritant to discourage the Chinese to attempt that route. So the only alternative is to proceed south along the Nubra and thence Shyok toward Thoise (going to Leh is going to be even more impossible, given the Khardung La to start with and the difficulty of linking up with the pakis via this route). Even for Thoise, they'll need to fight a huge attrition battle to do this - this is the stomping ground of the XIV Corps and the backup 8th Mtn Division from Dras, all of whose troops are well acclimitised and familiar with the terrain. There is no reason to believe the Ladakh Scouts wouldn't fight like there is no tomorrow - they would literally be fighting for their homes. But again, for argument's sake, let's say the PLA prevails and manage to cross Thoise and link up with the pakis at Turtuk (huge assumption here, since there is no road beyond Turtuk for the pakis to use). Then what? They'll have to build a road beyond Turtuk along the tortuous river valley (while fighting a war with us) before eventually reaching the current KKH near Gilgit. Yes - there is no easy shortcut even from Skardu.

Now, having gone this far, let's look at the Chinese logistics tail - stretching across the Aksai Chin, perhaps across the Karakoram pass (it's shorter to G-219 when compared to cutting across the Aksai Chin itself), Depsang Plain, Murgo, Saser La, Sasoma, Turtuk. The locals obviously won't support them, and there is no hinterland to draw supplies from - the DBO sector itself is a 100+ km from their G-219, which itself is a single road in the open for hundreds of kilometers before reaching a reasonably large city like Hotan. Even if they manage to bring supplies as they are ten feet tall and their trucks taller, our troops would find the road easy pickings from defensive vantage points near Khardung La (I am discounting the further use of DS-DBO to reinforce Murgo as I'd expect the Chinese to cut us off near Galwan, Pangong and Chushul (again, big assumption, let's play along). So, just one entrenched stand at Khardung La can cut their logistics supply very easily. This leaves only air supply - they'll have to land transports at Thoise and ALGs like DBO and Chushul. We can deny Leh to them quite easily as there are any number of mountain passes we can consolidate at and fight back from there. So, the only viable air supply option that would actually supply this new route is via DBO ALG and Thoise. How long can they keep supplying from air, given that Saser La becomes impassable in winter? All we'll do is to bide our time till the passes freeze over and wait a month or two for their winter supplies to dwindle and then break out of our mountain holdouts. It would be a simple mop up operation then.

Now, to get the chinese here, I've had to make a lot of assumptions above, and the biggest one of them all is the lack of our air presence. It was deliberate - even without our Air Force supporting our ground troops (again, forget any offensive role for the IAF), the PLA faces a humongous task to achieve this objective, which they anyway cannot hold. And at such a great cost, what do they get? A slightly better road? To where - same starting point of paki territory (Gilgit) that they anyway can get to today? And the pakis being a basket case in every which way, what would the chinese gain from it? They anyway control most, if not all the water sources in the area, with the exception of Siachen - what's the point of all this?

2. This is a local commander initiated issue.
Unlikely, not after how much it has flared up and prompted greater deployments from their side. Their so-called "rising star" general being posted here also give credence to this being a locally initiated issue.

3. They want to teach us a lesson so we don't pose a challenge to them for the next decade at least.
From their PoV, the timing is perhaps right: they peaked too early in the "peaceful rise" and caused concern around the world. They then gave Corona to the world, causing even more revulsion and anger. Neighbours are all unhappy due to their unilateral nonsense like the nine-dash line and island building actions, but are keeping quiet for the moment. Trump came into the picture and initiated a costly trade war that could break a lot of economic activity that they cannot simply replace by domestic consumption (no, they alone cannot consume the quantities they produce for the entire world's consumption). In India, Modi is not pliable like they had been used to with earlier dispensations, and to their credit, they recognize that India is the one country that could credibly challenge their status of Zhongguo. Internally, Xi for whatever reason has junked the decades long rule-by-consensus evolved by Deng Xiaoping after the horrors of Mao, and is now dictator-in-chief for life. That inevitably has sparked resentment within the party and elsewhere, as he has not shied away from using any means necessary to appoint his people in important posts. The slowing economy means the social-contract between govt authoritarianism and the people is starting to fray. And etcetera.

So they are caught in the wrong foot in many areas, and fighting multiple fires - making an example out of someone to demonstrate their power is a good idea. Hit the monkey to scare the cat, of whatever that nonsense is. The problem is, which monkey to hit? Vietnam has hit them back in the past, and has a historical enmity with them, so their people would consolidate behind their govt. Hitting Indonesia, Malaysia or Thailand cannot be justified in any way as they don't disagree much. Philippines is too small to matter. Taiwan, Korea and Japan cannot be touched due to unkil's protection. Russia is too big and is generally friendly, why lose the lone voice of support in the security council by provoking them? So who does that leave them with - someone not too small, not too big, has a running border problem, poses a credible enough threat to justify some action, someone still far away from the mainland to not lose a lot of face if things go sour, and low enough in mindshare for the public to not care about, yet enough to be whipped up if needed, to the extent needed. And history has shown that such a "lesson" was effective, so why not try again? And etcetera. So India it is. A lesson it is.

Now, my reading based on the above says #3, for a short and swift action that can achieve their aim to put us in our place and reinforce their "having arrived" as a world power. To do that, they'll follow their tactics of misdirection and hit us where we least expect it - so if they are massing up all along Ladakh (Depsang, Galwan, Pangong fingers, Chushul, etc.), then expect a probe in other areas. Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Doklam or along Arunachal. My bet is for Doklam (easy to interdict our chicken's neck), or Tawang (historical claim, blah blah). Ladakh will probably stay quiet beyond this.

If you've read this far, thanks and feel free to dissect any of the above.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 19 Jun 2020 08:48

Sanju wrote:If the map is showing finger 8 is beyond Sirjap, then we are either in control of Sirjap or have surrounded it. I support the scenario/explanation as presented by fanne ji.

--------------------------

So the Chines FM was correct in saying that "ghar mein ghus ke mare" and asking EAM to tell the troops to back-off. WTF did the Chinese FM think that if they attack on our side of the LAC it is kosher. Well you have finally met a professional army.

No wonder they gave up the IA soldiers.

For those folks who beleive that the Chinese "gave he soldiers as a goodwill gesture" or that "they wrested a promise from India", I will only say this much - please go and read the books on the conflict in 1962 and when they returned the POWs. The only reason that they returned them was that they were looking straight into the barrel of an 155mm gun.

Some of my Father-in-Law & Mother-in-Law's coursemates (all AMC Doctors) were never returned to this day.

-----------
Bekar Patel ,aka, Aakar Ahmed Patel, who masquerades as a journalist among other roles that he plays, was derisively asking about the "Ghar mein ghus ke" etc. I guess for proof we need to send him on a fact finding mission to the PLA camp. Even they wouldn't want such a poisonous cretin.

It is highly unlikely that we control sirjap or have surrounded it, considering the satellite images by Nathan which clearly show that chinese have occupied the heights near finger 4

If we claim that we have occupied heights behind finger 4, then how are we supplying them ?

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jun 2020 08:53

arshyam - I actually think the answer is simpler, it’s revenge for Doklam.

If the Doklam precedence holds, salami slicing is over and that new General might have replaced the old one precisely because of the Doklam debacle.

IMO, the simplest answer is always the best one.

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jun 2020 08:55

Davidrock wrote: It is highly unlikely that we control sirjap or have surrounded it, considering the satellite images by Nathan which clearly show that chinese have occupied the heights near finger 4

If we claim that we have occupied heights behind finger 4, then how are we supplying them ?

IMO Fanne’s story is best treated as wishful thinking unless proven otherwise.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 19 Jun 2020 09:03

samirdiw wrote:
suryag wrote:I for one believe in Fanne Sir's assertions, consider this, someone who has treacherously murdered our CO and his men without regards to RoE suddenly changes their mind and releases 10 of our men(officers in that). Hows that possible unless we had some very good bargaining chip in our bag? Are we fools to believe that some great goodness suddenly came into their heart one day after they acted in such a deceitful manner?
Why they released the men? Occam's razor says the most simple answer probably along the lines of what has happened in the past with other govts.
1. Agree to the new lines at finger 4 (unofficially). We can continue to use terms like "perception".
2. Continue to maintain peace and quiet as before and existing "protocols"
3. Seem like they are magnanimous
4. Pressure now on India to not take action especially after they release the troops. We will look like the war mongers.

Seems like similar to 62 albeit at a much smaller scale. If nothing happens further from our side in next 2-3 months we can confirm the hypothesis above.

Its difficult to imagine they suddenly got scared of India not especially after they initiated the situation. It does take some daring to create a situation and as our minister confirmed it was well planned.

To really scare them we should have taken action first and then agreed to talks. Everything is back to normal as before.

Yes I do think they have extracted some other type of concession - on patrolling or not opposing some buildup or some kind of retreat or even dismantling something on our side - could be anything. Looks reasonable. I'm sure they got their pound of flesh for 10 soldiers released.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 19 Jun 2020 09:04

VikramS wrote:
khan wrote: This thing has been developing for over a month now with Chinese troops moving in strength - and everyone saw it. While idiot “analysts” on Twitter were warning us about this in the most vocal possible fashion, GOI was underplaying the whole thing, treating it like an ordinary incursion - which they had to have known it wasn’t.

The only reasonable explanation is GOI & IA have something up their sleeve - or they are morons (which I refuse to believe).

Why this non sense being peddled ?? GOI is quite aware that a large buildup is going on but what it have to do with the latest incidence. ?

After lengthy negotiation , we did a huge mistake trusting the chinese to honor the agreed process of disengagement & pull back to points agreed by senior commanders

such an argument would have shown merit if we had a shooting match and we were overwhelmed by their fire and man power. They stooped low to take advantage of our long military tradition.

ma28nav · Post by **ma28nav** » 19 Jun 2020 09:07

India had been patrolling till Finger 8. Now the Chinese have built a road up to Finger 5. Anything short of a military escalation by India and pushing the Chinese back to Finger 8, China would have nibbled F5-F8 forever. 3-4 Years later the same MO will be repeated else where !

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 09:25

India should not establish a precedent that all that it takes for an enemy to get India to deescalate is to capture some Indian armed forces personnel and then release them. It happened with Abhinandan and it has happened again with these 10. What about the PLA honoring the agreement reached on June 6 where both forces were to withdraw to early May positions? Has that been forgotten in the euphoria that the 10 are released? While it may not be so and may not be true, nevertheless the impression should not be spread that India abandons military objectives in the event of it's personnel being captured.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 19 Jun 2020 09:29

sanjaykumar wrote:https://theeasternlink.com/un-chief-urg ... dia-clash/
...
It seems the IA aren't babes in the woods after all. ...

This was a stunningly ferocious action. The Chinese aren't braying about teaching India another lesson, unhinged and comical. Actually they stopped after Doklam. ...

That article you linked was a delight to read. Also good to read was Ramana's post about "all fingers now free".

I am sorry so many India soldiers lost their lives as also that lives were wasted on the Chinese side.

Of course I agree with you about Indian lives lost, but frankly I don't give a damn about the Chinese losses. In fact, the more they lose, the better AFAIC.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 09:32

khan wrote:arshyam - I actually think the answer is simpler, it’s revenge for Doklam.

If the Doklam precedence holds, salami slicing is over and that new General might have replaced the old one precisely because of the Doklam debacle.

IMO, the simplest answer is always the best one.

I think that as the full extent of this clash becomes better known the new General knows he has a fight on his hands. Overall I would call this a draw notwithstanding the defacto control that the PLA now exercise upto Finger 4 because the new General is probably going to be more careful in the future.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 19 Jun 2020 09:36

VikramS wrote: If you start making a big-deal out of it, AND you want the Chinese to back off you are creating a stiuation where Chinese will lose face.

Knowing the PLA and CCP, the loss of face is what they can not tolerate.

This is an absolute Chinese vulnerability that we should have taken advantage, but instead it looks like we used the "Chinese losing face" as an excuse to give them rope which they promptly tried to hang us with and only the valor of out veer javans saved the day. I'm not saying this is what happened but if you hypothesis is true then its super dumb to give them that leeway. Cheen only understands force. Doesn't matter if we lose some, as long as we advertise our capability that we are ready to rumble and give them a bloody nose.

bharathp · Post by **bharathp** » 19 Jun 2020 09:38

ldev wrote:India should not establish a precedent that all that it takes for an enemy to get India to deescalate is to capture some Indian armed forces personnel and then release them. It happened with Abhinandan and it has happened again with these 10. What about the PLA honoring the agreement reached on June 6 where both forces were to withdraw to early May positions? Has that been forgotten in the euphoria that the 10 are released? While it may not be so and may not be true, nevertheless the impression should not be spread that India abandons military objectives in the event of it's personnel being captured.

possible that they were watching what we did after abhinandan capture and we stopped all hostilities. hence thats what they did this time. get in, claim what they want, ambush + capture some personnel and then negotiate that this land is ours. this is the worst case scenario.
from hijack of ic 914 to abhinandan to this - seems like MO to get India to act.

on the most hopeful side - I am praying for some news during the All Party Meet today. I havent slept in 2 days. I am going to have one more sleepless night.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 09:38

Jay wrote:[ Cheen only understands force. Doesn't matter if we lose some, as long as we advertise our capability that we are ready to rumble and give them a bloody nose.

That is exactly what Lt. Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd) said on StratnewsGlobal a few days ago, " The only language they understand is force and strength".

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 19 Jun 2020 09:41

suryag wrote:Why do we think we didnt pick up prisoners from their camps ? Given their treachery it is possible that both sides picked up a few and decided to silently exchange ?

How can we think of such a thing sir? Sacrilege! After all, didn't we invent and continue to hold the copyright for "dhoti shivering"?

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 19 Jun 2020 09:41

The chicoms have made us play their game, amass in numbers and so possible to overpower and capture where there is a brawl.

When time comes, and we escalate, it will prove costly for them. In a firefight, they will lose many many more than us.

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jun 2020 09:41

shaun wrote:
VikramS wrote:
Why this non sense being peddled ?? GOI is quite aware that a large buildup is going on but what it have to do with the latest incidence. ?

After lengthy negotiation , we did a huge mistake trusting the chinese to honor the agreed process of disengagement & pull back to points agreed by senior commanders

such an argument would have shown merit if we had a shooting match and we were overwhelmed by their fire and man power. They stooped low to take advantage of our long military tradition.

My point is GOI & IA would have been nuts to premise the de-escalation strategy on the Chinese honoring any deal they made (Especially considering how much the Chinese have invested in the mobilization & the build up in the Pangong lake area).

But somehow, GOI seemed very confident that the status quo will come back:

- Until 3 days ago, GOI messaging, was “this is a routine incident” - which this wasn’t & everyone knew it, but they kept the fiction going until it couldn’t continue anymore.

- Then PM Modi went on TV & put himself in a corner by committing to no lost land.

- There has been no call for international intervention, no running to unkil, no calls to condemn Chinese aggression or anything like that. On the contrary, seems like everyone is being asked to stay out of it.

While it’s possible GOI is delusional (I don’t just mean PM Modi, I mean the 50 top people who decide things) - but I think it’s unlikely. It’s far more likely they know what they are doing and are executing a planned strategy.

What you are suggesting is they made blunder, after blunder after blunder - for a month by deciding every day to not force the issue with the Chinese. It’s possible and if that is the case it will become obvious, but I don’t see that happening.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 09:47

have recd a whatspp fwd which shows the fighting between Indian & Chinese forces in what now appears to be the finger areas adjoining a water body. 5 Chinese vehicles are parked near the river & IA jawans have one Chinese in custody, probably dragged out of the vehicles and he is covered with a shield written 'police' on it while other jawans are going about hitting the vehicles with sticks and rocks.

There is also a skirmish happening somewhere 50ft above and Chinese soldiers are seen skiing skidding on soft sand and landing at the river bank below. They join the Chinese who are seen massed down below beside their vehicles at the river bank but do not seem armed and our jawans are throwing rocks at them from above and ahead of them.

For sure there was one Chinese soldier upon whom an IA officer was seen stradling. Looking at the location and bloodied Chinese PoW, it seems like it was the galwan incident and not something previous.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 Jun 2020 09:48

^^^That's an old video of several weeks ago you can find here in this thread or the earlier thread.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 19 Jun 2020 09:49

Jay wrote:
VikramS wrote: If you start making a big-deal out of it, AND you want the Chinese to back off you are creating a stiuation where Chinese will lose face.

Knowing the PLA and CCP, the loss of face is what they can not tolerate.

This is an absolute Chinese vulnerability that we should have taken advantage, but instead it looks like we used the "Chinese losing face" as an excuse to give them rope which they promptly tried to hang us with and only the valor of out veer javans saved the day. I'm not saying this is what happened but if your hypothesis is true then its super dumb to give them that leeway. Cheen only understands force. Doesn't matter if we lose some, as long as we advertise our capability that we are ready to rumble and give them a bloody nose.

srai · Post by **srai** » 19 Jun 2020 09:49

Can someone summarize the sequence of events? Bits of pieces being reported but not a complete picture of how the events unfolded: trigger, escalation, retaliation, counter-retaliation, disengagement, rescue, etc.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 09:52

The exceptional valor of the Indian Army jawans in Galwan brings to mind that famous quote from Alexander the Great:

Alexander the Great — 'An army of sheep led by a lion is better than an army of lions led by a sheep.'

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 19 Jun 2020 09:53

khan wrote:I really want to believe you Fanne & I really want to believe The Eastern Link - but years of following the delusional TSP publications (remember “Defense Jounral”) - has taught me to be skeptical about narratives too far removed from the main-stream.

All I can say is “tere muh me ghee shakkar” - but I’ll keep my fingers crossed.

Names of the people martyred tells a lot...

Has the official list of the martyrs' names and units been released yet?

jpremnath · Post by **jpremnath** » 19 Jun 2020 09:57

ldev wrote:
I think that as the full extent of this clash becomes better known the new General knows he has a fight on his hands. Overall I would call this a draw notwithstanding the defacto control that the PLA now exercise upto Finger 4 because the new General is probably going to be more careful in the future.

I woudnt bet on that ..As far as the Chinese are concerned, they have got big wins in this skirmish till now not withstanding their losses in men. They have stopped indian patrols from going beyond Finger 4 permanently and have occupied heights with firm view across our roads. Indias response was to block them from moving further without reacting in fury to evict the aggressor.
So they will repeat the same exercise within another couple of years maybe at the lake to take full control or some other point in Ladakh, Sikkim or AP...Depending on how we let them get away with this of course. If we de escalate and go with talks, then they know we will never react beyond the usual pushing and showing.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 19 Jun 2020 09:57

Muppalla wrote:I have a question on the 8 fingers:

India-China border dispute: Importance of Pangong Tso and why its fingers are much sought after

In the above article and the following image -

Fingers 6,7,8 are after Sirjap which is Chinese base since 62.

This map is incorrect. I had made the same mistake after seeing the first such map put out by Abhijit Iyer-Mitra in his Print article series. But then there was a StratNewsGlobal discussion between Nitin Gokhale and Col S Dinny (who was posted at Pangong, YT link in an earlier page on this thread) which showed the correct map and Col Dinny walked us through it. It corresponds to all fingers being west of Sirijap.

Muppalla wrote:but Rohit Vats map shows all 8 fingers west of Sirjap:

This map is correct.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 19 Jun 2020 09:57

Ldev ji our group was lion led by lions somewhat mauled by cunning hyenas

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 19 Jun 2020 09:58

khan wrote:
shaun wrote:
Why this non sense being peddled ?? GOI is quite aware that a large buildup is going on but what it have to do with the latest incidence. ?

After lengthy negotiation , we did a huge mistake trusting the chinese to honor the agreed process of disengagement & pull back to points agreed by senior commanders

such an argument would have shown merit if we had a shooting match and we were overwhelmed by their fire and man power. They stooped low to take advantage of our long military tradition.
My point is GOI & IA would have been nuts to premise the de-escalation strategy on the Chinese honoring any deal they made (Especially considering how much the Chinese have invested in the mobilization & the build up in the Pangong lake area).

But somehow, GOI seemed very confident that the status quo will come back:

- Until 3 days ago, GOI messaging, was “this is a routine incident” - which this wasn’t & everyone knew it, but they kept the fiction going until it couldn’t continue anymore.

- Then PM Modi went on TV & put himself in a corner by committing to no lost land.

- There has been no call for international intervention, no running to unkil, no calls to condemn Chinese aggression or anything like that. On the contrary, seems like everyone is being asked to stay out of it.

While it’s possible GOI is delusional (I don’t just mean PM Modi, I mean the 50 top people who decide things) - but I think it’s unlikely. It’s far more likely they know what they are doing and are executing a planned strategy.

What you are suggesting is they made blunder, after blunder after blunder - for a month by deciding every day to not force the issue with the Chinese. It’s possible and if that is the case it will become obvious, but I don’t see that happening.

The fact is , we have precedence before , with present govt it was on doklam . If negotiation had failed we wouldn't have sent our men to inspect those sites . They backstabbed on us . Now if the status quo remains unchanged , GOI have to answer .

williams · Post by **williams** » 19 Jun 2020 10:03

I am just sick of this argument that we let them not lose face. What about us losing face? We are ok with that. I just hope people in the MEA and DM does not think that way. We have been losing face for a long time now. Our boys are beaten to death. Is that not losing face?

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 10:04

Mort Walker wrote:^^^That's an old video of several weeks ago you can find here in this thread or the earlier thread.

With such skirmishes in past record I wonder why we were not better prepared mentally that something was bound to happen.

Letting CO walk unarmed and lightly escorted was a mistake that the soldiers themselves had to pay a heavy price for. Hopefully in future the soldiers on ground will not follow silly protocols signed off by their political managers.

Chinese must be kept unsettled at the LAC at all costs. They will bluff and bluster and try to intimidate by pulling off such schemes as they tried in galwan because they have not developed experience for a conventional response.