India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jun 2020 10:05

shaun wrote:
The fact is , we have precedence before , with present govt it was on doklam . If negotiation had failed we wouldn't have sent our men to inspect those sites . They backstabbed on us . Now if the status quo remains unchanged , GOI have to answer .

Chinese made an agreement to withdraw, they withdrew as per-the agreement & then only when the inspection happened were they ambushed.

There was no reason to suspect treachery in that one specific incident - where they were appearing to be complying.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 10:07

be prepared for a showdown in October. This was just a trailer. The Chinese think we are upto something and tried to make a point by taking PoWs and dissuading us from the later campaign.

That was the whole point of the galwan adventure.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 10:23

Hari Nair wrote:
khan wrote:This makes sense. This year is China’s last chance to stop this road....
Absolutely - The Great Middle Kingdom is well aware of that and they have amassed some armour south of DBO in the Depsang Plains.
Connect the dots.... and one can discern their primary objective - its now (this campaign season) or never for them- slicing through south of DBO and claiming the area as their own for possibly a parallel road to G219.
The rest of the stuff at Fingers and other places are just diversions.

Sir,

You are right. This seems to be the case from speaking to someone who has spent considerable time in that sector.

Question was also asked - did we not anticipate the Chinese reaction to DBO road etc. They know it is important to us and want to dominate it!!

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 19 Jun 2020 10:23

One thing is clear. We need to clean our houses first. Starting with the overground workers for Pakis and Chinis in every sector. This point 0.5 front needs to be eliminated as soon as possible.

Next will be babus at MoD who still delay the defense purchases and then it will be OFB'e turn. Unions should be given an ultimatum. This type of behavior is not to be tolerated.

Just like 3 years after 1962, Indian army became a fighting force we need to act our act together now and treat defense matters on a war footing.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 10:27

suryag wrote:Ldev ji our group was lion led by lions somewhat mauled by cunning hyenas

There are a few sheep in the middle somewhere. Hope they are now where near positions of importance.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 10:29

Aditya_V wrote:China cant man the entire ridge In the heights, we can always like them start getting our teams on the heights start building bunkers on the ridges and then start moving our patrols to Sirijap, not in a day or 2 but over time. Similarly if we work hard enough we will find weakpoints and plans. Chinese cant cut any of our supply lines, while Pakis will be at it. But we need to dig deep and play for the long haul. Not only as an army but the country as a whole.

ACross the entire region we dominate the heights wherever that height is available to us...But the heights are only important when there is something of strategic importance to dominate..

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 10:32

jpremnath wrote:
ldev wrote:
I think that as the full extent of this clash becomes better known the new General knows he has a fight on his hands. Overall I would call this a draw notwithstanding the defacto control that the PLA now exercise upto Finger 4 because the new General is probably going to be more careful in the future.
I woudnt bet on that ..As far as the Chinese are concerned, they have got big wins in this skirmish till now not withstanding their losses in men. They have stopped indian patrols from going beyond Finger 4 permanently and have occupied heights with firm view across our roads. Indias response was to block them from moving further without reacting in fury to evict the aggressor.
So they will repeat the same exercise within another couple of years maybe at the lake to take full control or some other point in Ladakh, Sikkim or AP...Depending on how we let them get away with this of course. If we de escalate and go with talks, then they know we will never react beyond the usual pushing and showing.

You may have a point. The image below is from Reuters, satellite photo taken on June 16, the day after the clash. What is shocking is the complete re-drawing of the LAC. I have shown the difference between the two in my own overlay on their map. Where the dotted line breaks away from the red line is the new alignment - area now perceived to be under Chinese control. The dotted line is Reuter's perception of the actual LAC today. The red LAC drawn by me is what the LAC was like when the Google Earth image was photographed in 2016. And more shocking are the Chinese positions in the Galwan valley, barely 600-700 meters from the DBO road. And the reinforcements behind them are huge. There are over 100 Chinese vehicles in the valley further behind. The PLA has dug itself into the valley. To throw them out will require a war. It will be interesting to get an updated satellite photo to find out if the PLA has withdrawn to where the 100 vehicles are. That is well within their territory.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Jun 2020 10:34

Sir I posted that well before the Galwan incident, now things have changed. And I dont the LAC has changed that the Chinese are sitting on the Shyok

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Jun 2020 10:39

ks_sachin wrote:ORBAT EXperts I am trying to piece together the AoR from the Indian part.

Any one know more than 14 Corps AoR?

XIV corps has:

8th Mountain Division - Dras (not deployed against China)
3rd Infantry division - Leh (with 4 infantry brigades). Currently facing the Chinese in East Ladakh
Independent armored brigade.
Corps artillery brigade.

I have been of the view that we do not need all the units we currently have in the north East as the counter insurgency treat is reduced.
We can easily move 1 Div HQ from the North East (comprising a brigade from each of the 3 corps under Eastern command) and deploy it in
South Ladakh in the area between Chushul and Demchok. Currently 3rd Infantry division (in my amateur opinion) occupies too large a frontage.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 10:42

When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 10:42

Aditya_V wrote:Sir I posted that well before the Galwan incident, now things have changed.

Aditya things do not change. Despite dominating heights we are in a pickle. All that strategic forethought in operationalising DBO is now gone.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 19 Jun 2020 10:45

habal wrote:When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.

Looks like there is someone high in either MoD or IA who is feeding him info. But that aside, the lack of communications from GoI is striking and led to all sorts of speculations. GoI being silent is ok, provided there are no one providing leaks. But with the govt & IA leaking like a sieve with various tidbits fed to various journos, it creates more confusion. Its piss poor information management by GoI

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 10:47

Aditya_V wrote:Sir I posted that well before the Galwan incident, now things have changed. And I dont the LAC has changed that the Chinese are sitting on the Shyok

This photograph was taken the day after the clash. The Chinese were still in position as evidenced by the red marks which are vehicles/structures. Have they since pulled back in the last 48 hours? Unlikely given their position that the entire Galwan valley belongs to China. Also my red line overlay is conservative. The actual LAC swings further back to where the 100 Chinese vehicles are.

This is not 1962 or 1959 when 42,000 km of Aksai Chin was lost and nobody even knew about it for years.There was no internet, no commercial satellites. Today an army of enthusiasts keeps Governments honest by the day and sometimes by the hour.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 10:50

Deans wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:ORBAT EXperts I am trying to piece together the AoR from the Indian part.

Any one know more than 14 Corps AoR?
XIV corps has:

8th Mountain Division - Dras (not deployed against China)
3rd Infantry division - Leh (with 4 infantry brigades). Currently facing the Chinese in East Ladakh
Independent armored brigade.
Corps artillery brigade.

I have been of the view that we do not need all the units we currently have in the north East as the counter insurgency treat is reduced.
We can easily move 1 Div HQ from the North East (comprising a brigade from each of the 3 corps under Eastern command) and deploy it in
South Ladakh in the area between Chushul and Demchok. Currently 3rd Infantry division (in my amateur opinion) occupies too large a frontage.

Deans the area is packed to the gills with our troops.
I am not sure inducting more in will necessarily help.
There has to be a clear objective to the troop induction.
As I was discussing with the high command our response need not be in this sector.
Norther / Central and Eastern command will be on their toes so we need to be put pressure at a point of our choosing - that can be along the 3000 km border. That means that we need to be careful how we move troops around.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 10:54

putnanja wrote:
habal wrote:When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.
Looks like there is someone high in either MoD or IA who is feeding him info. But that aside, the lack of communications from GoI is striking and led to all sorts of speculations. GoI being silent is ok, provided there are no one providing leaks. But with the govt & IA leaking like a sieve with various tidbits fed to various journos, it creates more confusion. Its piss poor information management by GoI

Shukla is Armd right?
I am giving you a hint of another possibility....
I am just speculating...

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 10:56

putnanja wrote:
habal wrote:When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.
Looks like there is someone high in either MoD or IA who is feeding him info. But that aside, the lack of communications from GoI is striking and led to all sorts of speculations. GoI being silent is ok, provided there are no one providing leaks. But with the govt & IA leaking like a sieve with various tidbits fed to various journos, it creates more confusion. Its piss poor information management by GoI

they will not give even a sliver of info to the civilians, and whatever we will come to know will be from the enemies or propaganda artistes like Shooklaw.

My reading is he is getting info from some embassy rather than any official source.

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 19 Jun 2020 10:57

ldev wrote:

Saar, wouldnt some well targeted artillery to the sides of the rydges "thunderclaps/cloud bursts" cause the kind of land slides that took tens of chinki lives this week?

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 19 Jun 2020 10:58

williams wrote:I am just sick of this argument that we let them not lose face. What about us losing face? We are ok with that. I just hope people in the MEA and DM does not think that way. We have been losing face for a long time now. Our boys are beaten to death. Is that not losing face?

Exactly

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jun 2020 11:00

Aarvee wrote:
Saar, wouldnt some well targeted artillery to the sides of the rydges "thunderclaps/cloud bursts" cause the kind of land slides that took tens of chinki lives this week?

If hostilities actually start, the PLA in that deep gorge will be sitting ducks and will be slaughtered. That is if India takes the initiative and attacks. But if India does not take the initiative and sits back then one day the PLA decides to breakout in force they will cut off the DBO road.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Jun 2020 11:00

Can someone who can read the language please confirm whether the news is about current or past encroachment into Arunachal Pradesh.
https://assam.news18.com/news/nation/how-china-occupied-huge-land-of-arunachal-pradesh-bjp-mp-tapir-gaon-describes-history-62953.html

Pashupatastra · Post by **Pashupatastra** » 19 Jun 2020 11:01

shaun wrote:
VikramS wrote:
Why this non sense being peddled ?? GOI is quite aware that a large buildup is going on but what it have to do with the latest incidence. ?

After lengthy negotiation , we did a huge mistake trusting the chinese to honor the agreed process of disengagement & pull back to points agreed by senior commanders

such an argument would have shown merit if we had a shooting match and we were overwhelmed by their fire and man power. They stooped low to take advantage of our long military tradition.

They have deceived us Prithwitaj was deceived by Ghuri. We have the narrative of bravery and they can do with extra territory. Civilizations cannot stoop to the level of barbarians and hence condemned to be consigned to history.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 11:05

Gen Bikram Singh came on TV the other day and was saying how it would not be proper for him to probe his juniors on the situation since that may be construed as inference and inaporpriate attention. And here we have a Col boasting away and giving away hidden negotiation details on his bloody twitter.

So net net we are a banana republic with no repurcussions for leaking op details midway. Only condition inviolable is everything has to kept away from civilians. For the rest and influential, the higher ups will coochie coo the details in their ears.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 19 Jun 2020 11:06

habal wrote:When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.

Well his words should be treated as being spoken by Chinese spokesperson in India.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 11:09

ldev wrote:
Aarvee wrote:
Saar, wouldnt some well targeted artillery to the sides of the rydges "thunderclaps/cloud bursts" cause the kind of land slides that took tens of chinki lives this week?
If hostilities actually start, the PLA in that deep gorge will be sitting ducks and will be slaughtered. That is if India takes the initiative and attacks. But if India does not take the initiative and sits back then one day the PLA decides to breakout in force they will cut off the DBO road.

So we have a limited time frame to operate before we give up DBO road. And we did this knowingly or unknowingly and we have been set up in this spot where inaction from hereon has very specific consequences.

Let that be known and written in stone.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 11:10

Question is whether his information was wrong?

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 11:11

habal wrote:
ldev wrote:
If hostilities actually start, the PLA in that deep gorge will be sitting ducks and will be slaughtered. That is if India takes the initiative and attacks. But if India does not take the initiative and sits back then one day the PLA decides to breakout in force they will cut off the DBO road.
So we have a limited time frame to operate before we give up DBO road. And we did this knowingly or unknowingly and we have been set up in this spot where inaction from hereon has very specific consequences.

Let that be known and written in stone.

Exactly...That road is of strategic importance to us. So why not for the Chinese? What were we thinking?
What is the point of inducting all that recon platforms.

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 19 Jun 2020 11:22

ks_sachin wrote: Exactly...That road is of strategic importance to us. So why not for the Chinese? What were we thinking?
What is the point of inducting all that recon platforms.

Are you saying that with a wink?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Jun 2020 11:24

Had a restless night, but fanne sir, you made my day. There is lot more going on than we are able to piece together from OSINT.
Lets keep the faith and read the words of official statements very carefully.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Jun 2020 11:26

Dilbu wrote:Can someone who can read the language please confirm whether the news is about current or past encroachment into Arunachal Pradesh.
https://assam.news18.com/news/nation/how-china-occupied-huge-land-of-arunachal-pradesh-bjp-mp-tapir-gaon-describes-history-62953.html

Looks like Cheen has captured a large area on both sides of Subanshiri river as concern expressed by the BJP MP of East Arunachal Pradesh.
The article then goes on to provide map of the area alleged to have been taken over by Cheen (again salami slicing),

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Jun 2020 11:35

Kati wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Can someone who can read the language please confirm whether the news is about current or past encroachment into Arunachal Pradesh.
https://assam.news18.com/news/nation/how-china-occupied-huge-land-of-arunachal-pradesh-bjp-mp-tapir-gaon-describes-history-62953.html
Looks like Cheen has captured a large area on both sides of Subanshiri river as concern expressed by the BJP MP of East Arunachal Pradesh.
The article then goes on to provide map of the area alleged to have been taken over by Cheen (again salami slicing),

Thank you Kati sir. Wonder why this hasn't been picked up by national media yet. So we have another problem now?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 19 Jun 2020 11:38

once chini have put permanent structruces in galwan , what is there to talk? negotiate??

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Jun 2020 11:41

Chinese won't remain massed in the lower valleys for long esp since that they have already been warned adequately by cloudbursts. It's only a matter of time (short) that they break out to cut off the road.

It will not be a two-front war since the pakistanis lost an f16 due to electronic malfunction short while ago. They should have got the message else who knows what else may fail. This is only about China.

Most Chinese companies are taken over or owned by CPC mandarins who are now fearing loss of business to India. They will try their best to stem this flow one way or another.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 19 Jun 2020 11:42

Davidrock wrote:
williams wrote:I am just sick of this argument that we let them not lose face. What about us losing face? We are ok with that. I just hope people in the MEA and DM does not think that way. We have been losing face for a long time now. Our boys are beaten to death. Is that not losing face?
Exactly

Is losing face more important than escalating a conflict?

Leaders should strive to achieve their strategic goals with minimal loss of life.

As I had noted earlier, politically, there are no major elections upcoming, so there is no rush for GOI to get the Indian story out.

On the ground Indian Armed forces had mobilized and their talks had resulted in agreements to pullback. That the Chinese did not honor the agreement and ambushed Indian patrols is what changed the situation.

However, you can not assume that the Chinese would do that and move up the escalation ladder without proper cause. Every action has a reaction.

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 19 Jun 2020 11:51

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/anothe ... 457915.cms

By talking and showing excessive willingness to deescalate , we are strengthening Chini salami slicing.. If we dont show national resolve to avenge deaths of our 20 breavehearts , then we risk repeatation of same again and again .. Why are we worried about giving face saving option to china when their clear motive was to humiliate us by teaching us lesson again.. Its time to stop talking.. If someone tries to intrude in our land , our soldiers should be able to shoot. There is no point in sending them to such harsh locations against cruel cunning enemy with hands tied behind their backs.. There is palpable anger in common Indian citizen against chinese.. GOI has clear majority, public backing and capable armed force.. If this is not sufficient to take VISIBLE action against china then I dont know if we ever be worthy enough to call us superpower..

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Jun 2020 11:59

Dear Dr, there is a lot more going on than whats in that ToI article. Please scan the last few pages of this thread for posts by BRF oldies.
Rest assured, this GoI & our forces speak softly but carry a big stick, which they don't hesitate to use.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Jun 2020 12:04

Fun reading:
Is Xi losing control over the PLA?
https://theeasternlink.com/is-xi-losing ... r-the-pla/

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 19 Jun 2020 12:06

VikramS wrote:
Davidrock wrote:
Exactly
Is losing face more important than escalating a conflict?

Leaders should strive to achieve their strategic goals with minimal loss of life.

As I had noted earlier, politically, there are no major elections upcoming, so there is no rush for GOI to get the Indian story out.

On the ground Indian Armed forces had mobilized and their talks had resulted in agreements to pullback. That the Chinese did not honor the agreement and ambushed Indian patrols is what changed the situation.

However, you can not assume that the Chinese would do that and move up the escalation ladder without proper cause. Every action has a reaction.

It’s neither losing face nor escalating a conflict. It’s a question of 20 of your soldiers murdered - so what have we done about it? Or plan to do? This was not war - it was murder. I can patiently wait for a response but there has to be one - clear, measurable and seen. Otherwise all the forum talk of our honour and dignity and civilisation versus back stabbing lizards is idle chat and the language of loss.

Also does the GOI have to get the Indian story out only in response to local election/ political needs? I strongly question this premise. How about to get an India narrative?

As I said I for one will wait because you can’t hurry a measured hard response which we want GOI to give. But if we subside into business as usual, chankian post facto rationalisation, then what is to be assumed?

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 19 Jun 2020 12:08

Aarvee wrote:
ks_sachin wrote: Exactly...That road is of strategic importance to us. So why not for the Chinese? What were we thinking?
What is the point of inducting all that recon platforms.
Are you saying that with a wink?

There is no winking here. Moving the status quo is bloody hard..
So strategically we should not have been naive

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Jun 2020 12:17

If any one thinks after Kargil the Indian Army will build the road to DBO without considering the consequences of the adversary occupying the heights across the road, then why waste your precious few neurones on this forum?

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 19 Jun 2020 12:17

putnanja wrote:
habal wrote:When Shuklaw said that 10 of our soldiers were still being held hostage, there was not a peep from our side, if this GoI goes on similar lines into future, people like Shooklaw will still hold relevance and get a chance to peddle their propaganda mixed with half truths.
Looks like there is someone high in either MoD or IA who is feeding him info. But that aside, the lack of communications from GoI is striking and led to all sorts of speculations. GoI being silent is ok, provided there are no one providing leaks. But with the govt & IA leaking like a sieve with various tidbits fed to various journos, it creates more confusion. Its piss poor information management by GoI

This was an open secret, when the news initially broke out from "sources", most versions had the bit about some of our troops being captured. Its just that most journalists, like Shiv Aroor kept quite (he has admitted so) at least officially until they were released, probably on advice of the "sources". Of course the likes of Shooklaw would not let go of this opportunity.

Anyways IMO first downplaying the whole buildup, hardly giving out any information even when combat take place and then giving a slight of hand presser on the "hostage" situation will only play into the hands of Shooklaw and his ilk. For the un initiated aam junta they will look even more credible. In fact I'll probably be taking the "don't shoot the messenger" approach when it comes to information.