India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[salaam]

Sure, and we will sit by idly right? When there are 200 structures in Galwan and 200 on Finger 4, easy pickings as Nair sir has said. And other areas such as south bank of Pangong where we can do a countergrab.

Please, this is not 1962. We have an empowered & motivated military, we have a strong but non-emotional leadership, we understand the Chinese mind and we have decent assets (could be better, as always).

I don’t mean fingers which is a sideshow, I mean Depsang plains.

Everything is a side-show to what is gonna happen west of LoC.

[Schmidt]

Why is Google Maps showing Galwan valley in Chinese side of LAC?

[Larry Walker]

I don’t mean fingers which is a sideshow, I mean Depsang plains.

Right, if they grab X we grab Y. We don't need to countergrab X. This is basic lesson from Op Gibraltar. Yes it will enlarge the scope of the conflict but a stand has to be taken.

Sir - in my opinion if they grab Leh, we will have to grab it back. Pangong lake etc are good for some movie scenes, but offer no value. On the other hand - as I mentioned earlier - the citizens of India will come under foreign occupation. This is our biggest handicap is that we cannot threaten anything of value to the Chinese compared to what threat they hold us against to.

[abhik]

No specific numbers mention. Nitin G mentioned ~100 aircraft deployed (older sat images show ~50 fighters deployed)

[Hari Nair]

.... The timing, the terrain. the special forces, the trucks all show there was a plan that got foiled....

Ramana Sir,
I'm not so sure the plan has been foiled -- given the sort of build-up seen on OSINT satellite pics, post Jun 16, its just appears to have been paused for awhile. I do hope I am proved wrong.....

A follow up question on their build up at Pangong Tso near Finger 4. Some reports suggests that the value of Finger 4 is that it provides space for them to build a beachhead to take naval action across the lake into the Southern Bank. But photographs of the area also show Finger 4 being exposed significantly from the Southern bank or from behind the Western ridges to air attack on any massed formation. Secondly, what does the PLA achieve by seeking to control the Southern bank - how will it supply any troops without being intercepted either by boats or by air?

In light of this, do you think the build up at Panggong Tso is their diversion for any planned action at Galwan valley?

Well, the build-up on the north bank Fingers 4-8 is largely a static affair - since the terrain - the ridges run north-south and the movement of the Great Han Army needs to be transverse moving west- across each of these ridges, which will be slow and difficult. Also, Finger 4's terrain has an effective geographical block - it has a narrow track on its western side that can only accommodate movement by walking almost in single file. No vehicular movement is possible. However, the Han build-up there can possibly serve as an Anvil facing south, with the Han Hammer swinging westwards from the Spangur Gap below, near Chushul and then moving up to the Pangong south bank.

Remember - those buggers came in through the Spangur Gap in '62. The famous last-man last round stand by Maj Shaitan Singh and his 'C' Coy of 13 Kumaon at Rezang La was there - deployed in an unfortunate tactically unsound position.
The quote from the poem Horatius at the Battle Memorial :
"How can a man die better,
Than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his father,
And temples of his gods."

[nam]

It boggles my mind that with 60B trade deficit, we are maintaining the PLA forces which are deployed against us. Even at 30% profit & tax, that is close to 20B! Fundamentally India's annual aid to PLA.

The Chinis will try to de-escalate with "nobody won" kind of agreement. I really hope GoI doesn't go back to the all is well lethargy it made after Doklam and work on stopping the trade deficit.

[sajo]

Talks in Moldo are reported to have ended after 11 hours. Twitter chatter reports no major breakthrough.

[Armuan]

What would COVID-19's impact be on our preparations and contingencies? With high altitudes and cold climates, breathing is difficult as is, adequate precautions would have been taken already. I don't recall seeing this discussed earlier, hence asking. With our rates going up, there is always the possibility of it spreading to our guys at the border. Chinese would be in a similar situation, but aren't they seemingly more isolated than us based on how far they are from population centers? While COVID's impact on our general population is well known, Chinese COVID numbers are fake, so hard to asses their impact.

[khan]

The Chinis will try to de-escalate with "nobody won" kind of agreement. I really hope GoI doesn't go back to the all is well lethargy it made after Doklam and work on stopping the trade deficit.

That’s wishful thinking. I only got to watch the first 10 mins of that latest Gokhale video, but the RAW gentleman was saying that Chinese political leadership started the Vietnam war to make the point to the PLA that they need to modernize.

Similarly he thinks that this whole thing could be Xi testing out his RMA. I don’t think we should discount anything.

[khan]

Talks in Moldo are reported to have ended after 11 hours. Twitter chatter reports no major breakthrough.

I really hope our side is thinking of being pre-emptive & not just waiting for them to gather on their side of Akashi Chin in a enough numbers to overwhelm us.

[Aditya_V]

Any chance the CHinese may drive down in Large numbers from Demchok side and simultaneously attack from Spangur.

[pankajs]

Right, if they grab X we grab Y. We don't need to countergrab X. This is basic lesson from Op Gibraltar. Yes it will enlarge the scope of the conflict but a stand has to be taken.

Sir - in my opinion if they grab Leh, we will have to grab it back. Pangong lake etc are good for some movie scenes, but offer no value. On the other hand - as I mentioned earlier - the citizens of India will come under foreign occupation. This is our biggest handicap is that we cannot threaten anything of value to the Chinese compared to what threat they hold us against to.

1. A little territory grab/exchange here or there or there is one thing but getting to Leh is entirely different out of question. The Chinese till date haven't even assembled enough force to pressure major points.

2. There are 2 MAJOR Chinese pressure points that is within 100-150 km from DBO/Depsang plains. Why else are the Chinese so keen on Galwan valley? Just to pressure our deployment @ DBO/Depsang plains. Ask yourself why is DBO/Depsang plains so important.

Since you seem to have time to comment on this forum, open GEarth/Google maps, draw a circle of about100- 150 km centered on our DBO base. Does it touch anything that the Chinese consider as critical for their defense of Tibet?

[pankajs]

Any chance the CHinese may drive down in Large numbers from Demchok side and simultaneously attack from Spangur.

Chinese can try anything BUT we are deployed in matching strength.

Plus offensive forces need to be 3x to 12x the defending forces depending on the terrain and the ground of defense.

[Mort Walker]

Talks in Moldo are reported to have ended after 11 hours. Twitter chatter reports no major breakthrough.

There’s reports of Chinese belligerence in the South China Seas. That theater and the western theater will have to be watched. The CCP and PLA may no longer be rational thinkers.

[nam]

11 hours is too long to say No. The Chini must have come up with some time delaying plans.

[Singbhai]

Skardu j10 still rumors it cannot be verified but Caps intensified.

It is learnt that close to 40 Chinese J10 fighter jets landed in Skardu air base in POK last night. @IAF_MCC is on its highest alertness.
https://twitter.com/pradiprsagar/status ... 17376?s=19

The J10 fighters seem to be a supply to Pakistani Airforce. They are intended to be used by PAF as a substitute to f-16 fighters. Most likely 36 of them were delivered based on the original contract signed in 2016 which most people thought to have been cancelled.

https://www.flightglobal.com/pakistan-s ... 79.article

[Larry Walker]

Whether I have time to comment or not should not be a comeback on me. Again whatever you mention is correct, but the question is firstly whether we will take a preemptive initiative to do that ? Knowing how India thinks answer is no. Also, unless you threaten Lhasa, there is no threat in Tibet. Because as I said earlier (after looking at maps), if we focus on the areas that you mentioned, Chinese have much better targets almost along entire LAC. So unless we hold Mountain corps in reserve with enough resources that if pushed into a corner with significant losses, the 17th can mount an independent campaign and capture Lhasa and maintain logistics, we will all be reactive and defensive and the Chinese always willing to escalate.

[Cyrano]

All 36 delivered at once? Doesn't seem normal.

[pankajs]

Why is Google Maps showing Galwan valley in Chinese side of LAC?

The Galwan valley immediately next to its meeting point with Shyok, for about 4.5 km, is on the Indian side of LAC but the rest if across LAC. At the LAC the river/valley take a bend.

Looks right on my Google Earth install.

[Iyersan]

CCP and PLA will open the Indian front to check their military readiness for a greater conflict in SCS

[KLNMurthy]

Talks in Moldo are reported to have ended after 11 hours. Twitter chatter reports no major breakthrough.

I really hope our side is thinking of being pre-emptive & not just waiting for them to gather on their side of Akashi Chin in a enough numbers to overwhelm us.

I don't know what "Aksai Chin" means but can we change the name to something like "Aatish-e-Hind?"

[yensoy]

Skardu j10 still rumors it cannot be verified but Caps intensified.
It is learnt that close to 40 Chinese J10 fighter jets landed in Skardu air base in POK last night. @IAF_MCC is on its highest alertness.
https://twitter.com/pradiprsagar/status ... 17376?s=19

The J10 fighters seem to be a supply to Pakistani Airforce. They are intended to be used by PAF as a substitute to f-16 fighters. Most likely 36 of them were delivered based on the original contract signed in 2016 which most people thought to have been cancelled.
https://www.flightglobal.com/pakistan-s ... 79.article

I wonder what the IMF and other western lenders will say when they learn that their beggar likes the high life.

Pakis were supposed to not spend more than last year and they worked out a budget. This purchase of course will be coached as a previous commitment with deferred payment option vital to national security - but we need to go to town about how the Pakis are falling further into the Chinese debt trap and how their further funding should be completely cut off.

All 36 delivered at once? Doesn't seem normal.

You bet, nothing is normal. Rather everything is normal, 2 front war as expected is taking shape. First the Pakis need to learn to fly these planes, unless they have already been trained.

[Venkarl]

I really hope our side is thinking of being pre-emptive & not just waiting for them to gather on their side of Akashi Chin in a enough numbers to overwhelm us.

I don't know what "Aksai Chin" means but can we change the name to something like "Aatish-e-Hind?"

Before Jarita comes in...its Gosthana

[Iyersan]

Any chance the CHinese may drive down in Large numbers from Demchok side and simultaneously attack from Spangur.

Their aim is to sever Ladakh. Pakistan will join to sever Kashmir and we are still not preemptive, only reactive.

[yensoy]

CCP and PLA will open the Indian front to check their military readiness for a greater conflict in SCS

That makes no sense to me because the nature of war is entirely different between these locations. SCS is primarily a naval conflict, Ladakh is army, high altitude mountain warfare. If they want to calibrate their logistics and production ability, they already know what they are capable of because they are highly data driven and centralized.

[pankajs]

Whether I have time to comment or not should not be a comeback on me. Again whatever you mention is correct, but the question is firstly whether we will take a preemptive initiative to do that ? Knowing how India thinks answer is no. Also, unless you threaten Lhasa, there is no threat in Tibet. Because as I said earlier (after looking at maps), if we focus on the areas that you mentioned, Chinese have much better targets almost along entire LAC. So unless we hold Mountain corps in reserve with enough resources that if pushed into a corner with significant losses, the 17th can mount an independent campaign and capture Lhasa and maintain logistics, we will all be reactive and defensive and the Chinese always willing to escalate.

1. Copy the person you are responding to. Helps when the volume of posts is high and the thread moves fast.

2. We will not take preemptive action because we are our essential posture is defensive and I don't expect it to change very soon.

3. You asked for a target within 100 km that is important to China and I gave you 2. That answers your question.

4. One can threaten Tibet / Chinese occupation of Tibet without stepping into or attaching Lhasa.

5. Chinese have better targets but is the IA going to roll out the red carpet for them? Something very basic is being missed here. IA has matched the Chinese deployment AND attackers need 3x in plains to 12x in mountains to overcome defense. BASIC.

6. Again, Tibet cannot be won by capturing Lhasa but leaving the rest of Tibet to China. As basic as that.

7. Understand ... We ARE defensive and that is a fact. That does not mean Chinese will have a walkover.

[khan]

That makes no sense to me because the nature of war is entirely different between these locations. SCS is primarily a naval conflict, Ladakh is army, high altitude mountain warfare. If they want to calibrate their logistics and production ability, they already know what they are capable of because they are highly data driven and centralized.

They will actually need boots on the ground to take Taiwan.

This Xi guy might be some Hitler type megalomaniac trying to build a legacy over the bodies of 1000’s - if not 10’s of 1000’s of his countrymen.

[pankajs]

CCP and PLA will open the Indian front to check their military readiness for a greater conflict in SCS

That makes no sense to me because the nature of war is entirely different between these locations. SCS is primarily a naval conflict, Ladakh is army, high altitude mountain warfare. If they want to calibrate their logistics and production ability, they already know what they are capable of because they are highly data driven and centralized.

Also,

1. Different era means that the logic of Deng/Vietnam was does not hold good.

2. A loss with India will dent their reputation and make their other counterparts/neighbors more assertive/willing to fight. That does not work for a China that wants to win by intimidation rather than fighting.

[Raveen]

2. A loss with India will dent their reputation and make their other counterparts/neighbors more assertive/willing to fight. That does not work for a China that wants to win by intimidation rather than fighting.

This is SO true. Anything other than an overwhelming annihilation of IA means they lose face - after all, someone trying to claim to be a superpower should point blank overwhelm a mere inferior regional power. Even if we just put up a stiff resistance and they miss one objective, they've lost face and any credibility for the claim of being a superpower. We've done better, and that point isn't lost on the world. They'll try and overcome the narrative...this isn't over, not by any means. They NEED a comprehensive victory over us to push their narrative of global superpowerdom, we need to barely deny one objective of the many they might have and they lose. Honestly, they've miscalculated how this will end up for them or we're missing something.

[ramdas]

I do not see how they can just walk into Leh, or snatch Ladakh, even in tandem with the Pakis. Even Gen. Panag, who has no love lost for the current govt. has made it clear that if a full fledged war takes on such a trajectory, we can always fall back on our nuclear arsenal.

[Larry Walker]

2. A loss with India will dent their reputation and make their other counterparts/neighbors more assertive/willing to fight. That does not work for a China that wants to win by intimidation rather than fighting.

Yes, but maybe in their calculations, they are not loosing. We are not privy to their plans. Combined with the fact that India is very reluctant to escalate, they can decide theatre and severity of the conflict and can unilaterally call for cease-fire when they have upper hand claiming they have taught India a lesson.

[abhik]

Quick OSINT question, What the heck is this (near Sikkim tri-junction area) and any idea when it was built? Looks like permanent military residence that can house 1000's.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/27%C2 ... 88.9364444
One cant be but impressed with the scale of civil engineering they have undertaken in the area, looking at the number of buildings in the base and else where one would not think this is in the a$$ end of Tibet.

[Larry Walker]

6. Again, Tibet cannot be won by capturing Lhasa but leaving the rest of Tibet to China. As basic as that.

Both India and China are big and powerful enough that they will not let their territory be captured for a long time and will do whatever it takes to get it back. But a temporary loss of important territory in both countries has potential to trigger major political and social upheaval which may either be detrimental or beneficial - but no way to predict. This upheaval is what these countries will be afraid of and not some win or losses on some fronts. So capability to threaten this upheaval is the key here.

[kit]

2. A loss with India will dent their reputation and make their other counterparts/neighbors more assertive/willing to fight. That does not work for a China that wants to win by intimidation rather than fighting.

Yes, but maybe in their calculations, they are not loosing. We are not privy to their plans. Combined with the fact that India is very reluctant to escalate, they can decide theatre and severity of the conflict and can unilaterally call for cease-fire when they have upper hand claiming they have taught India a lesson.

Who said India will not escalate? " We do not desire Chinese territory but if they want war we WILL give it to them"..read between those lines ., not mine it is PM Modis . China should fear an Indian attack, it will not only dent their prized "image" but all their dreams of any sort of domination in Asia forget the world!

[pankajs]

Quick OSINT question, What the heck is this (near Sikkim tri-junction area) and any idea when it was built? Looks like permanent military residence that can house 1000's.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/27%C2 ... 88.9364444

Per GE, Between Oct-2012 (Structure being raised but no roof) and Oct-2013 (Roof in place)

[Larry Walker]

Who said India will not escalate? " We do not desire Chinese territory but if they want war we WILL give it to them"..read between those lines ., not mine it is PM Modis . China should fear an Indian attack, it will not only dent their prized "image" but all their dreams of any sort of domination in Asia forget the world!

Ok - fine - but pls be kind enough to point out which place we will escalate ?
What do I think ? Since I am a complete novice ( not even an armchair general) - but if I had to make a call and the establishment is satisfied that Chinese will try to severe Leh-Ladakh - I would roll dice and pre-empt them by starting a campaign to take over PoK and GB.
And it may be that Chinese in turn are trying to pre-empt our GB/PoK campaign ??

[LakshmanPST]

I think someone knowledgeable and experienced in BRF may consider preparing a few maps marking important passes and roads in Ladakh... That will be helpful for us to understand the overall picture...

[kit]

Who said India will not escalate? " We do not desire Chinese territory but if they want war we WILL give it to them"..read between those lines ., not mine it is PM Modis . China should fear an Indian attack, it will not only dent their prized "image" but all their dreams of any sort of domination in Asia forget the world!

Ok - fine - but pls be kind enough to point out which place we will escalate ?
What do I think ? Since I am a complete novice ( not even an armchair general) - but if I had to make a call and the establishment is satisfied that Chinese will try to severe Leh-Ladakh - I would roll dice and pre-empt them by starting a campaign to take over PoK and GB.
And it may be that Chinese in turn are trying to pre-empt our GB/PoK campaign ??

All I would say for now is just trust the IA to do what it does best, and it has a free hand and some of the finest brains in tactical warfare, backed by all sorts of intelligence gathering systems and likely uncles as well !!., don't increase your BP unnecessarily.

[AdityaM]

Now Abhijit iyer on TV states that we struck at their dam and the blocked waters are flowing again.
Where is the truth of Galwan?

https://twitter.com/mehharshil/status/1 ... 50380?s=21

[pankajs]

Who said India will not escalate? " We do not desire Chinese territory but if they want war we WILL give it to them"..read between those lines ., not mine it is PM Modis . China should fear an Indian attack, it will not only dent their prized "image" but all their dreams of any sort of domination in Asia forget the world!

Ok - fine - but pls be kind enough to point out which place we will escalate ?
What do I think ? Since I am a complete novice ( not even an armchair general) - but if I had to make a call and the establishment is satisfied that Chinese will try to severe Leh-Ladakh - I would roll dice and pre-empt them by starting a campaign to take over PoK and GB.
And it may be that Chinese in turn are trying to pre-empt our GB/PoK campaign ??

Why would a defensive force do that? India/IA are confident of their defense will hold China out from encroaching further!

Only under an exceptional circumstance will they launch a offensive to wrest territory under the control of the opponent.