India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[ryogi]

^^ This Larry Walker guy is a Chinese 50c Army bot.. If you look at his posts, he popped up just when this China fracas started and he loves to paint his fellow countrymen as 10 feet tall. Mods are encouraged to ban him.

[pankajs]

^^'
I can't make up my mind. 4 different motivation could match his posting behavior.

1. Indian genuinely scared of the 100 feet Chinaman he has heard about.
2. Indian, mostly seekoolars, sickulars and seckulars, trying to troll/taunt pro-Modi/pro-India crowd.
3. Bakistani trying to troll/taunt Indians.
4. Chinese trying to troll/taunt Indians.

I will give him a benefit of doubt and go with first i.e. an Indian scared of the 100 feet Chinaman.

[Larry Walker]

Sir - it is our hysterical behaviour that prevents it. The force that is required to take land in another area is the force that is currently against Chinese forces in Depsang. So if you take some of their land in some other sector - Chinese will happily roll into Leh/Ladakh and entire nation will ho beserk that Modi has lost Indian land - no one will bother that we have captured some of theirs. Again this is where our handicap of not being able to threaten anything of real value to Chinese bogs us down. We can happily sit on some frozen barren land and Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh. The only way out of this it to go kinetic and take on Chinese in Depsang. They have not planned for entire LAC going hot nor can we afford it. And once Chinese will get into Leh/Ladakh - they will not swap it for any piece of barren land that India has captured. And for India again the same classic short-coming - come winter if you cannot sustain your posts in the mountains - how do you plan to hold lands beyond the mountains.

1. This is not true. What we have facing the Chinese is significant but far less that what we could deploy. As properly planned defense needs 1/3 to 1/10 the attacking force. "some" of the rest could be used to grab land.

2. 2nd Highlight is fanciful to say the least. Our defensive deployment is sufficient to keep Chinese out of Leh/Ladhak. Our reserves can be deployed to nibble territory just like the Chinese are doing right now.

It is not a military but a political call that India is not pressing for. India/GOI/Modi are still hoping for a peaceful settlement and therefore not forcing the issue. We have had Chinese aggression before that ultimately wound up without a fight after months. We are yet to cross the old records for such matters.

3. 3rd Highlight. Chinese are ALREADY in Ladhak since about 1950. They will never get to Leh for reason discussed before and in the previous point.

For the last time, We are adequately matched with the Chinese as far as defense of Ladhak/Led is concerned. Chinese will grab some territory somewhere and we too CAN do the same resulting in a swap BUT there is no political direction for that at present.

Rest of your logic is predicated on them capturing some big population center and therefore falls on logic UNLESS you claim that the Chinman is 100 feet tall and will decimate 5-6 feet Indian in a one on one fight.

THIS is getting repetitive without an iota of work/application of mind "Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh". It is NOT adding value to the forum discussion or increasing anyone's knowledge or sharing new insights.

This is more akin trolling or flaming. IFFFF you are so insecure that you need daily dose of assurance on the safety of Leh I would recommend a break from posting.

I am going to start reporting you post hence as trolling if you repeat "Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh" or something similar unless you can back it up with some good logic/insight.

Debate is fine - telling me I don't know or don't understand is fine - but don't threaten me.
I had replied to a specific post - you are free to ignore that or any other of my posts. I am getting tired of this attitude - everyone has their perceptions and fears - if you think it is unjustified feel free to educate else ignore - but threatening and calling troll etc is not social behaviour.

[ks_sachin]

^^ This Larry Walker guy is a Chinese 50c Army bot.. If you look at his posts, he popped up just when this China fracas started and he loves to paint his fellow countrymen as 10 feet tall. Mods are encouraged to ban him.

Is that your objective yardstick?

[RaviB]

Here is a topographic map of the area from 1923 at a scale of 1:1 million. Some place names are spelled differently Qizil Jilga = Kizil jilga, Burtse = Burtsa

https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/topo ... h-1923.jpg

More detailed US Maps created in 1982 and revised around 1990 at a scale of 1:250,000 are available from the following page as PDF. These all mark the LAC, likely the Indian perception, since not even the Chinese are sure of their perception.

https://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/jog/india/

See especially sheets NI 44-9 Chushul and sheet NI 44-5 Shuyok [sic] and sheet NI 43-8 is at very high resolution.

[ks_sachin]

^^'
I can't make up my mind. 4 different motivation could match his posting behavior.

1. Indian genuinely scared of the 100 feet Chinaman he has heard about.
2. Indian, mostly seekoolars, sickulars and seckulars, trying to troll/taunt pro-Modi/pro-India crowd.
3. Bakistani trying to troll/taunt Indians.
4. Chinese trying to troll/taunt Indians.

I will give him a benefit of doubt and go with first i.e. an Indian scared of the 100 feet Chinaman.

No. He is trying to make a point but going about it in a hamfisted way...
Read his post without reference to Leh/Ladakh etc...

[nishant.gupta]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

[Larry Walker]

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 28384?s=19

Indian Army dealing with the Pangong Tso flashpoint as 'semi-permanent faceoff', is armed and ready for all eventualities. I report first details on the Army’s assessment of the most volatile current friction point: https://t.co/dZOuMRIe9W

Why do we need or have these pseudo-nationlist defense journalists ??!! Anyone reading his tweet will draw the conclusion that India is just waiting for snow to start and the Chinese will retreat. Is this how he thinks we will 'push-back' Chinese and teach them a lesson !!

[Deans]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Moving to a trouble spot is what armies are supposed to do. In the case of the PLA its a movement of upto 3500 Km from their peacetime location.
In our case its a fraction of that distance. We are relatively comfortable in the harsh terrain of Ladakh. The Chinese are not.
We are deployed to defend our territory. What are the Chinese deployed for ?
As time passes, its the Chinese that will be more restless. They have to either attack or withdraw. To avoid a withdrawal with its loss of face, the Chinese are desperately hoping to get some concession from us - which they hope our hysterical public, supported by BIF and parts of the media, will endorse. This is a game of patience and the side to blink first will lose.

[darshan]

If Chinese did this to vent internal heat then the game of patience won't work. If they are waiting for just before winter then India should have this as it's redline that India will resort to air and missile attacks for troops attacking and running back as winter sets in.

[Larry Walker]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

[ks_sachin]

Does anyone know that the the ITBP company ToE is?

[Dilbu]

If China has already encroached into our side and built structures, how is patiently waiting for something to happen helping us? Shouldn't we take action somewhere else. Like the demolition of structure blocking water, it should be waiting patiently only until some point. Not waiting endlessly.

[darshan]

If directed towards me instead of Deans, by patience I meant waiting for big scale war and not everyday destruction here and there.

[nishant.gupta]

Moving to a trouble spot is what armies are supposed to do. In the case of the PLA its a movement of upto 3500 Km from their peacetime location.
In our case its a fraction of that distance. We are relatively comfortable in the harsh terrain of Ladakh. The Chinese are not.
We are deployed to defend our territory. What are the Chinese deployed for ?
As time passes, its the Chinese that will be more restless. They have to either attack or withdraw. To avoid a withdrawal with its loss of face, the Chinese are desperately hoping to get some concession from us - which they hope our hysterical public, supported by BIF and parts of the media, will endorse. This is a game of patience and the side to blink first will lose.

Agreed that we are in a comfortable position at present and IF the Chinese are hoping that our PM will bend just because of some BIF (with his elections 4 years away) then this is ok. What if they are just preparing themselves to gain territory and keep it? If we take back whatever they have right now, the losses we have will be that much more less. And Nitish Kumar gets a second term happily.

My question is, what if the Chinese are not deploying for the wait and watch game?

Japan has activated its missile regiments. USA has 3 carriers on around SCS with reports of reducing soldiers in Europe for moving to Pacific sector. Taiwan is itching for a full and final. China are themselves fingering almost everyone. In all this, they seem to be deploying S400 (which are limited in nos but supposedly best in class) near Laddakh??? WHY??? They don't seem to be that stupid that they will deploy the best they have from an area where it is seriously needed to a place bang opposite just for force projection.

Call it dhoti shivering but isnt this a question which we need to figure an answer to?

[pankajs]

Debate is fine - telling me I don't know or don't understand is fine - but don't threaten me.
I had replied to a specific post - you are free to ignore that or any other of my posts. I am getting tired of this attitude - everyone has their perceptions and fears - if you think it is unjustified feel free to educate else ignore - but threatening and calling troll etc is not social behaviour.

How does one debate fear .. and that too a strange fear .. I mean 3 Divisions of IA cannot face 2 Division Chinese in defensive position on land that they know intimately!

Therefore "Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh" ... wah wah!

[Cyrano]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Moving to a trouble spot is what armies are supposed to do. In the case of the PLA its a movement of upto 3500 Km from their peacetime location.
In our case its a fraction of that distance. We are relatively comfortable in the harsh terrain of Ladakh. The Chinese are not.
We are deployed to defend our territory. What are the Chinese deployed for ?
As time passes, its the Chinese that will be more restless. They have to either attack or withdraw. To avoid a withdrawal with its loss of face, the Chinese are desperately hoping to get some concession from us - which they hope our hysterical public, supported by BIF and parts of the media, will endorse. This is a game of patience and the side to blink first will lose.

Deans, what do we gain by not blinking first ?

[SRajesh]

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-w ... al-2543556
Sorry cross posting on this page.
But given the Doklam/Galwan issue, what has the UPA I/II signed away to the Pakis and the Chins???
Will Army own-up to having agreed to this settlement!!! or were they coerced into this??
Given recent revelations of CCP paying into Rajiv Gandhi foundation/Beijing Olympics trip etc 'The Family' has to be held accountable and possibly shut this 50-year old youth icon : https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 643540.cms

[ks_sachin]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

But why will we attempt to capture something that is of no significance to the Chinese?

If we attempt an action what is our end game?

Everything else tactically flows from that....

[ks_sachin]

Moving to a trouble spot is what armies are supposed to do. In the case of the PLA its a movement of upto 3500 Km from their peacetime location.
In our case its a fraction of that distance. We are relatively comfortable in the harsh terrain of Ladakh. The Chinese are not.
We are deployed to defend our territory. What are the Chinese deployed for ?
As time passes, its the Chinese that will be more restless. They have to either attack or withdraw. To avoid a withdrawal with its loss of face, the Chinese are desperately hoping to get some concession from us - which they hope our hysterical public, supported by BIF and parts of the media, will endorse. This is a game of patience and the side to blink first will lose.

Deans, what do we gain by not blinking first ?

We show our resolve....
WE show we are not the India of the Congress days....
We show the Biharis and others that as a nation we have not let their sacrifices go in vain....

[RajaRudra]

10 Days Before, Its Hot and Fury in all the media.
Now, Its more of a pessimistic tone in many media.

May be, this is what govt is wanting for. But the steps taken by both the armies are only increasing and getting more of the offensive.

) Nitin Gokhale - is again confirming the pink colored tents are of Indian sangers and are in that color for some reasons
But that location - is not so easy to be defended from Indian Side. May be we are marking/manning the territory. If Chenese open fire, then we have the entire Chinese buildup to target and neutralize. In a way, If that tents are of ours. we must salute and give kodi kodi pranams to the soldiers..Not a humane task.

2) Based on various twitter accounts, China had moved its S400 to the region. That also means, our air force are currently showing the potent threat to their infra and deployed force. Both the armies are massing up the mechanized formation also on some possible use case areas.

3) In a way, Finger area and Galwan area are related. I have a feeling that, Something we lost in galwan area silently in 2012-13 and we are rightfully taking back in Galwan. In doing so, China was made to amaze troops there. Now, fearing a same thing repeating, Chinese are fortifying the finger areas..

Two things can happen.

1) We may open upon the finger area.
2) China may open upon the Galwan area.

In either case, we should use everything in our hands to destroy maximum infra/bridges in the other side of the LAC and should not keep the skirmishes localized and thereby inviting more concentrated fire.

Good to know, the road and infra building things are going on even under this pressuring times. (this thing needs to be verified).
Finally, if we manage to avoid a war now and our infra becomes more and more stronger. then the possibility of this scenario repeating will get low.
- Just my take. No expert.

[Larry Walker]

How does one debate fear .. and that too a strange fear .. I mean 3 Divisions of IA cannot face 2 Division Chinese in defensive position on land that they know intimately!

Therefore "Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh" ... wah wah!

Pls point to a authorative source which says that there are only 2 Chinese divisions in that particular a-o-r. Indian forces numbers would be in ballpark as it is reported by our free media. I don't think we have a good view of what forces Chinese have arrayed opposite to us in Ladkah region - IA would know - but our discussions are based on assumptions.

[RaviB]

Interesting take.

China has been playing Go, not chess. India needs to learn the game

The author has probably neither played Go, nor has any clue about Mandarin. Igo is a Japanese word. But other than that, Mao did test his Generals by playing weiqi / go with them. (And look how victorious they were)

In Go, classically the opening move is to secure the corners and then to capture territory in the centre, usually by creeping along the sides so maybe that's their strategy. But that would be a bit exaggerated, since there is technically no side, where their backs would be protected.

Rains in Ladakh... well what rain? It's a desert. There are pretty heavy rains in China right now though. Plenty of flooding. the Three Gorges dam is already a little wrinkly. It won't topple though, they probably have all sluice gates open because of the rain. But China is a big place, so I don't think floods in Sichuan will affect their plans in Ladakh.

[nishant.gupta]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

Agree. We just end up either losing or not winning while China either wins or doesn't win. This is purely from political perspective IMO considering that the land as a PM once said is useless since "not a blade of grass grows on it".

My question stays. We have the edge. We have the muscle. We attack now. We take back what we lost in last 2 months AND we take back what we know truly belongs to us. We redefine the terms of future engagements. We put an idea in the Chinese as well as the Tibetans that it IS POSSIBLE for Tibet to be free. We also ensure that at least for the next couple of decades, we do not have to worry about attacks from that border leading to a peaceful journey and growth. Then why not do it???

[nam]

If the Chinese were serious getting in a fight with us, then they would have done two things:

1. Prepare PLAAF airbase first. They were digging up Ngari in May, after they figured out, this could escalate.

2. Invaded proper across our permanent position. In all the areas, PLA is either on LAC or in grey area. It has NOT crossed in to areas, which it never patrolled.. They are just about dipping their toe..

They don't seem to want o escalate it, but, cause enough trouble to get some concession from us. But this drama led to a serious threat of Indian invasion. Not to mention the firestorm our media created with everyone in the world believing that it was China which started this.

I believe PLA wanted freeze on all our infra build in return for leaving. With the clash, now there is no hope. PLA must have occupied tile Finger 4, but it add NO VALUE to the real objective: Freeze of infra build. Not to mention the trade boycott..

If PLA has to stop us, it has to use force. They know there is no guarantee of success, otherwise they would have done it earlier..

[pankajs]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Our resources are also flowing into the area. One needs to understand the game very carefully ...

1. China wants to win without fighting else it could have attacked when it had an upper hand. IIRC, they did a large exercise around G219 with mechanized forces and Armour just facing DBO/Despang plain in Jan-Feb.

By April they had assembled and acclimatized and at that time could could have totally moved to DBO/Depsang plains thus creating a significant edge locally. India has not even suspected their motive at that time. Why did they not attack at that time?

2. Modi too had his moments when IA had the initiative locally in certain pockets. Why did Modi not follow up?

It makes sense when you understand that Chinese don't want to fight but to cow Indian down into submission by a show of force and extract some concession from Modi as a sign of his acceptance of defeat.

Modi, OTOH, does not want a fight because even if we win, it will come at a significant cost to India. His first focus is to get it worked out diplomatically and keep the kinetik option for the very last.

I had written before, I suspect IFFFFF Modi has been informed about the Chinese re-occupation of PP-14, he would have asked IA to pitch tent next to that point instead of asking for a forceful action.

It is to be seen if Modi's gambit will work out but this is the thought I have been able to discern from studying the actions of each party.

3. To put pressure of Modi to capitulate, the Chinese too are nibbling little by little every day instead of trying to make a dash for Leh as some of our board members fear.

Ultimately, if it comes to fight, the little nibbling/nabbling could be cleared with forceful action. It does not require IA to go deep into Chinese territory but will come with a cost.

China is increasing the cost of such action with every passing day but it too will pay a similar escalating cost if it comes to a battle. The situation is balanced in that sense till now.

[darshan]

The permanent MIC within India along with manufacturing companies, dismantling of brown lizards, and making every Indian follow every law while doing business with chinese should be the payback for this.

This payback will cause internal issues in China.

[nishant.gupta]

If the Chinese were serious getting in a fight with us, then they would have done two things:

1. Prepare PLAAF airbase first. They were digging up Ngari in May, after they figured out, this could escalate.

2. Invaded proper across our permanent position. In all the areas, PLA is either on LAC or in grey area. It has NOT crossed in to areas, which it never patrolled.. They are just about dipping their toe..

They don't seem to want o escalate it, but, cause enough trouble to get some concession from us. But this drama led to a serious threat of Indian invasion. Not to mention the firestorm our media created with everyone in the world believing that it was China which started this.

I believe PLA wanted freeze on all our infra build in return for leaving. With the clash, now there is no hope. PLA must have occupied tile Finger 4, but it add NO VALUE to the real objective: Freeze of infra build. Not to mention the trade boycott..

If PLA has to stop us, it has to use force. They know there is no guarantee of success, otherwise they would have done it earlier..

I put some points in bold to show what I am using. What you are saying is that after all that Modi did in his first term (making Paki lungis shiver) and his first 6 months in second term (bye bye 370), Chinese still believed that his concession for them to move back from gray areas will be to stop all infra development on border??

[pankajs]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

Same old speel without naming Leh ...

1. Same logic will apply to China too. It won't be able to dominate the LAC at all points. It too has limits to its forces.

2. India may not be able to capture something of significance to the Chinese while they may. How do you know? Population centers are too far for both to capture. What can be captured and traded will be local tactical piece of land that are many and that cannot be guarded by each side at all locations.

See every things the 100 feet Chinaman can do Indian cannot. That is the crux of all you posts.

[darshan]

[
I put some points in bold to show what I am using. What you are saying is that after all that Modi did in his first term (making Paki lungis shiver) and his first 6 months in second term (bye bye 370), Chinese still believed that his concession for them to move back from gray areas will be to stop all infra development on border??

If I'm chinese who had bought India for decades and had MoUs with Indian politicians, then why would not I believe that my brown lizards crawling all over India would come through for me? They came thru all the other times before.

[Deans]

Deans, what do we gain by not blinking first ?

We show our resolve....
WE show we are not the India of the Congress days....
We show the Biharis and others that as a nation we have not let their sacrifices go in vain....

To add to Sachin's points:

1. China believes in Sun Tzu's `win without firing a shot'. It would be a humiliation if they lose without firing a shot.
2. They have to either invest huge amounts in maintaining thousands of `little emperors' who have to suffer from lack of oxygen, 5G,
home cooked food etc. OR withdraw thousands of men thousands of km without achieving anything. Nothing really changes for IA, except
to remove whatever little trust there was with the PLA.

[pankajs]

How does one debate fear .. and that too a strange fear .. I mean 3 Divisions of IA cannot face 2 Division Chinese in defensive position on land that they know intimately!

Therefore "Chinese will annex Leh/Ladakh" ... wah wah!

Pls point to a authorative source which says that there are only 2 Chinese divisions in that particular a-o-r. Indian forces numbers would be in ballpark as it is reported by our free media. I don't think we have a good view of what forces Chinese have arrayed opposite to us in Ladkah region - IA would know - but our discussions are based on assumptions.

We don't know the number
IA would know
Our discussion are based on our assumptions

How else is China defeating India and capturing Ladakh/Leh in your posts if not based on YOUR assumptions. Do you spot the fear here?

[nishant.gupta]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Our resources are also flowing into the area. One needs to understand the game very carefully ...

1. China wants to win without fighting else it could have attacked when it had an upper hand. IIRC, they did a large exercise around G219 with mechanized forces and Armour just facing DBO/Despang plain in Jan-Feb.

By April they had assembled and acclimatized and at that time could could have totally moved to DBO/Depsang plains thus creating a significant edge locally. India has not even suspected their motive at that time. Why did they not attack at that time?

2. Modi too had his moments when IA had the initiative locally in certain pockets. Why did Modi not follow up?

It makes sense when you understand that Chinese don't want to fight but to cow Indian down into submission by a show of force and extract some concession from Modi as a sign of his acceptance of defeat.

Modi, OTOH, does not want a fight because even if we win, it will come at a significant cost to India. His first focus is to get it worked out diplomatically and keep the kinetik option for the very last.

I had written before, I suspect IFFFFF Modi has been informed about the Chinese re-occupation of PP-14, he would have asked IA to pitch tent next to that point instead of asking for a forceful action.

It is to be seen if Modi's gambit will work out but this is the thought I have been able to discern from studying the actions of each party.

3. To put pressure of Modi to capitulate, the Chinese too are nibbling little by little every day instead of trying to make a dash for Leh as some of our board members fear.

Ultimately, if it comes to fight, the little nibbling/nabbling could be cleared with forceful action. It does not require IA to go deep into Chinese territory but will come with a cost.

China is increasing the cost of such action with every passing day but it too will pay a similar escalating cost if it comes to a battle. The situation is balanced in that sense till now.

I agree with what Modi would be thinking. I have been following his journey since his RSS days and I feel he is a guy not afraid to take action but also understands that all other methods are better than losing lives of soldiers or any Indians (possibly why he has been so dull during covid crisis).

I also understand the original intentions of Chinese would have been the "new and improved" salami slicing that no one before has heard of. They are obviously also worried about the Indian border infra which has been building up since Modi came to power.

But all these plans can be tossed into the bonfire as soon as 16 Bihar decided that enough is enough. What are the Chinese getting now by keeping the heat on and even increasing their forces in a way unheard of even during Doklam?

Obviously as I mentioned, they are even risking a lot on the Eastern border by these re-deployments even if we assume they have the money to blow while making all these units move from east to west.

[nam]

I put some points in bold to show what I am using. What you are saying is that after all that Modi did in his first term (making Paki lungis shiver) and his first 6 months in second term (bye bye 370), Chinese still believed that his concession for them to move back from gray areas will be to stop all infra development on border??

Well that's what the Chinese thought. We would stop our build in return for the PLA jokers going back.. Things just went pear shaped for them

[Deans]

If the Chinese were serious getting in a fight with us, then they would have done two things:

1. Prepare PLAAF airbase first. They were digging up Ngari in May, after they figured out, this could escalate.

2. Invaded proper across our permanent position. In all the areas, PLA is either on LAC or in grey area. It has NOT crossed in to areas, which it never patrolled.. They are just about dipping their toe..

They don't seem to want o escalate it, but, cause enough trouble to get some concession from us. But this drama led to a serious threat of Indian invasion. Not to mention the firestorm our media created with everyone in the world believing that it was China which started this.

I believe PLA wanted freeze on all our infra build in return for leaving. With the clash, now there is no hope. PLA must have occupied tile Finger 4, but it add NO VALUE to the real objective: Freeze of infra build. Not to mention the trade boycott..

If PLA has to stop us, it has to use force. They know there is no guarantee of success, otherwise they would have done it earlier..

If China was serious about war they would have done the following:
- Improve the G-219 highway, which may not currently be able to withstand landslides or the weight of thousands of heavy vehicles.
- Position many thousands of workmen required to construct supply depots, barracks, fuel dumps, repair workshops, fuel and watch pipelines etc.
(which it took us decades to do).
- Actually construct all of the above. It would mean stockpiling a million tonnes of supplies.
- Position the thousands of trucks (and the fuel for them) required to transport both material and men near the LAC.
- Additional fuel, spares, hardened shelters and SAM's at ALL airbases in Tibet (not some joker on twitter saying S-400 has moved).

In the absence of all this, they can do a deployment which, in my opinion, has to be limited in numbers and duration.

[nishant.gupta]

[
I put some points in bold to show what I am using. What you are saying is that after all that Modi did in his first term (making Paki lungis shiver) and his first 6 months in second term (bye bye 370), Chinese still believed that his concession for them to move back from gray areas will be to stop all infra development on border??

If I'm chinese who had bought India for decades and had MoUs with Indian politicians, then why would not I believe that my brown lizards crawling all over India would come through for me? They came thru all the other times before.

Number of times these lizards are helping is reducing by the day... Balakot, Doklam.... no one really knows what GoI is planning and worst of all...even if all these BIF's scream from top of Bhurj Khalifa, all party meetings happen 3 days later and give out things which the country already knows.

I agree same holds true for me and I have been sitting chup chaap in my armchair all this while hoping that something will happen but I do believe our time of advantage might be running away...

[pankajs]

Our resources are also flowing into the area. One needs to understand the game very carefully ...

1. China wants to win without fighting else it could have attacked when it had an upper hand. IIRC, they did a large exercise around G219 with mechanized forces and Armour just facing DBO/Despang plain in Jan-Feb.

By April they had assembled and acclimatized and at that time could could have totally moved to DBO/Depsang plains thus creating a significant edge locally. India has not even suspected their motive at that time. Why did they not attack at that time?

2. Modi too had his moments when IA had the initiative locally in certain pockets. Why did Modi not follow up?

It makes sense when you understand that Chinese don't want to fight but to cow Indian down into submission by a show of force and extract some concession from Modi as a sign of his acceptance of defeat.

Modi, OTOH, does not want a fight because even if we win, it will come at a significant cost to India. His first focus is to get it worked out diplomatically and keep the kinetik option for the very last.

I had written before, I suspect IFFFFF Modi has been informed about the Chinese re-occupation of PP-14, he would have asked IA to pitch tent next to that point instead of asking for a forceful action.

It is to be seen if Modi's gambit will work out but this is the thought I have been able to discern from studying the actions of each party.

3. To put pressure of Modi to capitulate, the Chinese too are nibbling little by little every day instead of trying to make a dash for Leh as some of our board members fear.

Ultimately, if it comes to fight, the little nibbling/nabbling could be cleared with forceful action. It does not require IA to go deep into Chinese territory but will come with a cost.

China is increasing the cost of such action with every passing day but it too will pay a similar escalating cost if it comes to a battle. The situation is balanced in that sense till now.

I agree with what Modi would be thinking. I have been following his journey since his RSS days and I feel he is a guy not afraid to take action but also understands that all other methods are better than losing lives of soldiers or any Indians (possibly why he has been so dull during covid crisis).

I also understand the original intentions of Chinese would have been the "new and improved" salami slicing that no one before has heard of. They are obviously also worried about the Indian border infra which has been building up since Modi came to power.

But all these plans can be tossed into the bonfire as soon as 16 Bihar decided that enough is enough. What are the Chinese getting now by keeping the heat on and even increasing their forces in a way unheard of even during Doklam?

Obviously as I mentioned, they are even risking a lot on the Eastern border by these re-deployments even if we assume they have the money to blow while making all these units move from east to west.

1. After Bihar, the numbers are balanced. So there is not major pressure to escalate. I suspect that is why Chinese suspected numbers where splashed all across Indian channels to give a sense of revenge/parity.

2. Till date I believe neither India nor China have pulled back from any areas. Rather these are reserves that have been deployed if you go by the Indian media reports.

So there is no pressure to act except what the Chinese are putting on Modi to capitulate and offer something as a tribute.

[nam]

One thing to notice is that the entire narrative of the standoff is carried out by our media. Even the GT joker get news from our media. All Western reports are based on stories from our media..

Other day the joker from GT complained, that Indian media is driving the two nations towards war..

Chinese are referring to our media to see what we are thinking. They see massive build up by India and war cries on India media.

The Chinese feel we are preparing for retaliation. This means they have to do a counter build up. The crazy Indians could attack any time..

But the PLA doesn't want to waste time eye balling SDRE's in frozen heights of LAC..they want to be dealing with TFTA Taiwan, Japanese & Americans on Eastern beaches, with sunshine and wine..

[ks_sachin]

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

Agree. We just end up either losing or not winning while China either wins or doesn't win. This is purely from political perspective IMO considering that the land as a PM once said is useless since "not a blade of grass grows on it".

My question stays. We have the edge. We have the muscle. We attack now. We take back what we lost in last 2 months AND we take back what we know truly belongs to us. We redefine the terms of future engagements. We put an idea in the Chinese as well as the Tibetans that it IS POSSIBLE for Tibet to be free. We also ensure that at least for the next couple of decades, we do not have to worry about attacks from that border leading to a peaceful journey and growth. Then why not do it???

Aksai Chin or Finger 4 to 8...?

[rpartha]

Noob question:

Reports keep coming of continuous inflow of hardware and software (to be read as "warriors") from Han side to the alleged border. We had the edge in this mainly because of the continuous forward deployment of our assets and the distance of LAC from interiors. Now this so called edge is being nullified slowly by Han deployment.

Should'nt we be taking matters in own hand and giving them some lessons in mountain warfare while we hold this edge?

Modi has already publicly given the freedom to the fauj to decide what to do in case of any Chinese incursion and there is enough evidence to show that incursion has happened...

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

Larry, I rarely comment here but want to make a comment now after seeing what's going on - you need to first understand that you dont have all the information to make the conclusion that you are making... you are doubting PM, Army and everyone involved.. prob you are thinking that it is some kind 5 man army where we can just walk in and set the place on fire... people with knowledge wont talk and people who talk dont have all the information. Now let's come to your worst fear - that China has taken over Indian territory - so be it. It's not like China has done this for the first time
They have been doing it for almost 70 years now. On the other hand, the current govt is the only one which has done something for the border and north east areas - in terms of infra and everything.. yes, they have made right noise about MIC but couldnt get this done. So prob this is the correct thing to happen to get a singular focus and get MIC done. If it is going to bring shame to India so be it.. Rome is not built in one day.. We will stand up - again.. again the above theory is for the dhoti shivering as you are so worried that PM, Army and everyone else have failed the country...