India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[chola]

It gets better. Per the article, the MMA guys are now going form a group called Tibetian Mastiffs resistance platoon/group....a Tibetian Mastiff is a type of dog. The wolf warriors are now dog warriors group. On a more serious note, did they not get the GOI memo saying that Indian army can now use small arms. What good is kung fu when you are facing a gun.

Maybe they believe in the Kung Fu movies that we used to watch as kids !

Lol. Saar! The kung fu movies we watched as kids came from Hong Kong. The chicommies went out of their way to destroy traditional chini culture during the Cultural Revolution and kung fu is about as traditional as it gets.

I believe the chini MMA guys use a PLA h2h combat form called Sanda.

Rather ugly and disrespectful to the traditional forms but more effective.

[Larry Walker]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... ssion=true

So what happened to our hallowed MEA mandarins and their famed border management protocols and framework ??
Or is this GoI giving ultimatum directly to the main party here - CMC ??

[Manish_Sharma]

I found this in my archives, but unfortunately can't find link for this post:

JE Menon wrote:

I'm having difficulty with the case being made that the us is playing the "balance of power" game, but at the same time wants to "protect" China by "managing" India? Why? They like China more?


Rudradev wrote:

JEM!

It isn't just "managing India" and "protecting China"... let's not hang too much on the semantics of what are essentially very reductive one-word descriptions of complex policies.

Indeed, the term one hears very, very often (in what purports to be "serious" literature issuing from US think tanks) over the last couple of decades is "managing China's rise."

China is rising, as everyone has known for a while. Some of that rising is indubitably good from the US' point of view, particularly for large corporations, big players in financial markets, and their lobbies in Washington. Hamiltonian policy imperatives dictate that the best way to keep a nation "on-side" is to get heavily entangled with its economy... so that anything the Chinese do that could directly harm the US would in turn harm the US economy, and thus inescapably harm the Chinese economy.

This has, for the most part, been achieved. The Chinese have a limit beyond which they will not actively try to harm the US directly. That in itself determines a certain parity of interests between these two so-called "geopolitical adversaries". Nothing like this was ever achieved by Washington with respect to the Russians or Iranians, for example... so the threat perceptions for those two nations are entirely different.

But what about growth in other dimensions than the economic? China also has hegemonic ambitions: domination of territory, foreign markets, and natural resources in its own imperium, particularly the near-abroad. It wants to create an expanding sphere of influence in which it is top-dog, and also challenge the current top-dog (the US) in that expanding area. This is DISTINCT, mind you, from directly harming the US... it is more of a rivalry or competition for dominance over third parties... not so different from, say, the Portuguese/Dutch/British fighting for influence over overseas colonial possessions even if they were not actively at war with each other on their home turf.

This is where the "managing" comes in.

The US doesn't want to confront China to the point of restricting all its hegemonic growth. Rather, it wants to channelize that expansion, as far as possible, in directions that don't conflict with defined and established US interests, and in fact become dependent on US dominance in its OWN defined spheres of interest.

Hence: the US does NOT want China to expand eastward (push into the Pacific, or Western Pacific littoral states, which are US clients.) The US does NOT want China to expand southeast or due south, into ASEAN. But southwest is perfectly OK. Due west and northwest are tricky... if the Chinese expand their sphere of influence in those directions, then from the US perspective, it must happen in such a way as to bring China into greater CONFLICT and less COOPERATION with Russia and Iran, and it is preferable that it happen in such a way as to coincide and synergize with the US' own interests in those directions.*

India is a different story. India has not risen as China has, as far and as quickly as China has, for various reasons. Hence "managing" India involves a different set of issues for the US. The US no longer sees us as a basketcase of the 50s, 60s, or 70s... far from it. The Hamiltonian economic entanglements, however, have far less interpenetration in the US-India scenario than the US-China scenario. Part of the reason for this is that India is a democracy and cannot grow economically by diktat.

India, for the US, is at a very different place on the ascending ladder than China is. We are climbing the ladder at a different pace than China was and is. It is not in the US' interest to grind India down. But neither is it in the US' interest to push us up at a rate that would threaten China... this is what I fervently believe, even though it flies in the face of all the "counterweight to China" rhetorical soundbites doing the rounds on twitter and news-trading websites. The US WANTS China to keep expanding in a direction that could potentially threaten India, rather than potentially threatening US clients like Japan and Soko; meanwhile, the US also wants India to become more dependent on the US as a result of feeling threatened by Chinese expansion... something that would, in turn, make India's FUTURE growth more manageable for the US.

This is how empires do their thing. It is subtle and doesn't lend itself to neatly-defined rhetorical posturing, but there it is IMHO.

*Footnote: THAT is why the CPEC or Af-Pak to Gwadar models make sense for the US. The Chinese build their own infrastructure all the way from eastern China manufacturing hubs across the Tibetan plateau and to the Karakoram Highway (all security guaranteed by PLA up to this point). They continue building across POK/NA into Pakistan and link with Pakistani arteries leading up to Gwadar (security guaranteed by PLA plus Pakistan armed forces and security forces along this stretch.)

But what happens after Gwadar? Is it worth the huge expense of building and maintaining this fantastically complex and difficult infrastructure, the CPEC, only to get Chinese goods to Gwadar? Who is going to buy all these goods there... Altaf Hussain's Ammi? No... the whole point of bringing Chinese goods to Gwadar is so that they can be loaded on ships and taken to their real markets in West Asia and Europe.

BUT who guarantees the security of ships plying the critical leg of this trade route between Gwadar and West Asia/Europe? The US, of course, via maritime dominance of CENTCOM.

Just as a co-dependency has evolved between American consumer markets and Chinese manufacturers, the US would like to extend that Hamiltonian entanglement by evolving a co-dependency of CPEC trade route and CENTCOM maritime security, with the added investment of energy suppliers going the other way (bringing oil and natural gas into Gwadar and trucking/pipelining it back up along the CPEC to eastern China). A whole ecosystem is thus built around this trade route in which China, the US, the Pakistanis, the EU (end customers of Chinese goods) and the ME nations (original suppliers of energy) become inextricably committed.

The one nation that can play spoiler... with its armed forces poised along the chicken-neck of the CPEC in POK/NA, and its navy capable of shutting down the Pakistani coast... is India. IF India allows this plan to proceed as envisioned, we will find ourselves overwhelmingly opposed by a large bloc of nations to anything that could interfere with the trade route in which they have all invested so much.

That is why it is imperative to disrupt this in any way we can.


and

Rudradev wrote:
In a nutshell: the US views China as an empire that should be dissuaded from challenging the US' own empire, and India as a nation that should be dissuaded from becoming an empire at all.


Their solution for China is to tie up the fortunes of China's empire with those of the US' empire so that both prosper or fail together.

Their solution for India is to persuade India to become a client of the US rather than a contending empire in our own right. This is done by strengthening the Chinese empire's expansion into India's sphere of influence, and then promising India protection from the threat of the Chinese empire's expansion... all the while blowing smoke up the a$$es of Indians that we are a "great nation".

Note that NOWHERE have I said that India is helpless or paralyzed or without hope (I do believe it was between 2004-2014, but I have faith that things are turning around now). I am just articulating what I see as the US strategy. Having recognized that, it is up to India to formulate our own strategy accordingly.

[LakshmanPST]

This Chellaney's article is doing rounds on social media---> "China Throws Down a Challenge to India"
https://openthemagazine.com/cover-story ... -to-india/

While the article has some good points, there are few problems with some of his statements...
Essentially, Chellaney's words & subtle assertions directly support Chinese narrative against India... Sorry for the long post, but I'll explain why:-
----
1) His claim of Indian 'Army' (mind you not Govt.) being caught unaware of Chinese build up:
He claims that Chinese caught Indian Army napping while it was mobilizing troops to the border... This is an assumption made by him... It is true Indian Govt. tried to downplay it earlier, but to assert specifically that 'Indian Army' was caught napping by Chinese is to create a picture of superior PLA stealth tactics and lazy Indian soldiers... This is directly pushing Chinese propaganda...
----
2) What China gains most from the current situation is to project Modi as 'same as any other Indian leader'... This is to push the narrative of 'inferior' Indians who can not challenge superior China...

2a) IMHO, I feel Modi did not 'appease' China the way previous PMs did... The reason is, Modi Govt. paralelly developed border infrastructure that was neglected by all previous Govts.... If what Modi did is pure appeasement, he wouldn't have done that... I see Modi's so called 'appeasement' as more of optics for buying time... Even ammunition reserves of India were very low back in 2014... The last thing Modi would have wanted is a war without ammunition reserves or border infrastructure... Infact, Chinese are at our door-step ONLY BECAUSE we developed border infra...
Modi's main failure in Defence matters is not being able to create Indian MIC... But equating the current Govt. with previous Govts. directly plays into Chinese narrative (and Congress's need to remove the remark on Nehru)...

2b) Even his narration of Doklam stand-off event is not correct... Fact is, China has been in possession of Doklam plateau much earlier... You can see Chinese roads and posts in that area even before 2014... They have always had some infrastructure in the land that actually belonged to Bhutan... They only tried to extend the road to the Indian side of the border which Indian Army successfully thwarted... He is passing it off as a new encroachment of Chinese in 2017...

If he is entirely neutral, even if he does not highlight the positive aspects, he shouldn't be spreading fake narratives...
----
3) His narration of Galwan events on June 15/16 and subsequent 'loss of narrative':-

3a) Here, his first says that India need not have to follow border agreements of no guns during a stand-off... Let me give a scenario, assuming our troops were carrying guns on that day and we shot them, that too on their side of LAC, it will be a huge narrative advantage for China... It will be publicized as a direct violation of long standing agreements and shows India as the escalator (Yes, soldiers lives would have probably been saved, but I'm talking strictly about narratives here)... Surely, the usual suspects even on our side would have amplified it to paint the narrative of a trigger-happy Govt. who lacks strategy...
IMHO, it was an agreement that both sides have been following even after the stand-off has started and they actually showed signs of deescalation... It is the Chinese that indirectly violated the agreement, due to which we threw it in dustbin now...

3b) The second point that needs to be categorically rejected is that Chinese ambushed and killed 20 Indian soldiers many claim... What happened is Chinese ambushed CO and 2-3 soldiers... The remaining soldiers died in revenge attack while killing lot of enemy soldiers...
Why that '20 ambushed' narrative needs to be rejected is becoz
i) it is belittling our soldiers who gave a really strong message to China...
ii) it is giving an indirect message that India did not retaliate and allowed China to walk away...

This is once again nothing but Chinese/Congress narrative... He is essentially pushing this narrative...

3c) Yes, Modi's speech on June 19 was a bit flawed... He should have specifically mentioned 'in Galwan sector'...
China did use it for its domestic audience and Congress is using it for its own reasons... But did we lose the Global narrative...??? Answer is No...
Infact, most of us even forgot his speech, except Congis trying to keep it alive... Also, there was no change in our official stance of the Govt. on any section of border...
Repeatedly highlighting this is pushing Chinese narrative...

Overall, in this Galwan episode, it is the Chinese who lost the narrative...
----
4) Right now, Indian govt.'s main objectives seem to be
i) restore status quo
ii) delay the inevitable war as much as possible for reasons best known to them

Govt. did not show any signs of new land surrender till now... Even the supposedly deescalation discussions going on are not going anywhere with respect to Pangong Tso where Chinese actually changed the status quo...
It is way too early to say that this Govt. has surrendered to the Chinese...
If anything, we're standing our ground and actually deploying more troops as I write here...

And ofcourse, even India knows that the deescalation talks are a bid of Chinese to buy time... If we arm-chair posters know such a basic thing, do you think our Army, who are directly dealing with them, does not know it...???
If Indians are blindly believing the Chinese, we wouldn't be increasing our troops...
----
As someone said on Twitter (I forgot who), why is no one talking about the reverse headline---> "India throws a challenge to China..."
We told them, you have to restore status quo... If you mobilize troops, we will mobilize more... You ambushed our unarmed soldiers, we killed double the number of your soldiers without firing a single bullet... We will stay here unless you restore the status quo... Even if you mobilize troops to intimidate us, we will continue to build border infrastructure... What are you going to do...?
It is China that needs to answer... Not India... And this is where we currently stand...
----
While Chellaney's knowledge of Chinese affairs was good, we need to take his articles with a truck load of salt... As far as his views of current stand-off are concerned, to me he is looking more like a sophisticated version of Ajay Shukla...
He somehow wants India to attack now or accept that Modi is no different from Nehru...
If you ask me, if China deescalates and restores status quo now or even few days or months later without firing a single bullet, it will be a huge narrative defeat for them... While India is preparing for a full-fledged war, there is still a tiny bit of chance for it to happen...
Chellaney's aim seem to be to call it Indian Govt.'s failure if and when that happens... At the end of the day, this is what Congress and Chinese want afterall...

[darshan]

There are two points which is not clear to me from all that I have read here

1) Why is China doing this?
2) Will the world powers support us?

.........If I was the US, I will want India to lose or rather not win. Because that is when India will be more agreeable to become a part of their camp on their terms.

Thats how US acted in 1960s. End of the day it's all about the US China Islamic triangle. From the US perspective, there's a green belt spanning from northern Africa to Indonesia. Seeing India as a power would not be on their decks.

[Jarita]

There are two points which is not clear to me from all that I have read here

1) Why is China doing this?
2) Will the world powers support us?

.........If I was the US, I will want India to lose or rather not win. Because that is when India will be more agreeable to become a part of their camp on their terms.

Thats how US acted in 1960s. End of the day it's all about the US China Islamic triangle. From the US perspective, there's a green belt spanning from northern Africa to Indonesia. Seeing India as a power would not be on their decks.

Correct

[Manish_Sharma]

While Chellaney's knowledge of Chinese affairs was good, we need to take his articles with a truck load of salt... As far as his views of current stand-off are concerned, to me he is looking more like a sophisticated version of Ajay Shukla...
He somehow wants India to attack now or accept that Modi is no different from Nehru...
If you ask me, if China deescalates and restores status quo now or even few days or months later without firing a single bullet, it will be a huge narrative defeat for them... While India is preparing for a full-fledged war, there is still a tiny bit of chance for it to happen...
Chellaney's aim seem to be to call it Indian Govt.'s failure if and when that happens... At the end of the day, this is what Congress and Chinese want afterall...

I also was suspecting some sort of agenda from him, but couldn't put my finger on it. Thank you for bringing clarity to the matter.

[nam]

In all the propaganda videos about "combined arms exercise at high altitude", there has been nothing about PLAAF...

[hshukla]

Posting after a long time....times are such.
One thing that has been bothering many of us in this forum is
A] Why did China choose this time to attack India...its not like its a post Covid reaction; we have posters posting proofs that the prep started last year Nov time frame itself.

B] What can India do; can it strike first ? If yes, then in what manner that it has a shock and awe, China remembers it and plays to our strength of keeping it short and sweet.

Answer to both the questions seems to be merging for me.
Lets start with [A]. IMO China did what it is doing cause we showed them that two Nuke powers can go to limited wars without crossing the Nuclear thresholds. What we did to Pakistan, in a way showed the way to China that India can be taught a lesson without going Nuclear.

And I think the solution to lies in breaking the basic assumption China built its invasion on. We go nuclear and we go nuclear in first strike but only tactical...i.e. we use sub kilo ton nukes to destroy their hardened positions.
These are my thoughts as to why it may work out for us:-
1] We jump the escalation ladder and bring in much needed S&A. We tell China and world that we will not get bullied and as a civilization; will not take things lying down.
2] In hilly terrain a tactical nuke may help remove hardened positions with much lesser sorties than a traditional attack may ---> will let gurus comment on this assumption.
3] We use tactical so we dare China to go full for a small escalation ...same mind game which Pakis wanted to play with us but couldnt bring themselves to do.
4] All the veterans will recall the Game Theory session we had for a nuclear war between Pakis and India...in which the Yak herder showed that a nuclear tango cannot be limited to two powers and will eventually involve all. The same will hold true now also; there will be all pressure from the powers to be on China to not go nuclear. Here I rely a lot on RaviB's psycho analysis wherein why will Chicoms get their mainland threatened for non Han Tibetans and also a full on Nuclear will also nullify whatever gr8 dreams they have had. India does have a nuclear triad and the ability to survive first strike.

Its a fight worth fighting for; do it all or keep getting smacked year after year , summer after summer. I think its a roll of dice worth trying for.

[idan]

This is the UPA govt's 2006 official position on China's encroachment of Indian land .... 43180 sq. kms to be precise. If you question any Congress stooge with this fact and ask them how much have they recovered till 2014 ....... this will shut down their canard. I have tried it and it works wonders!

[Larry Walker]

This is the UPA govt's 2006 official position on China's encroachment of Indian land .... 43180 sq. kms to be precise. If you question any Congress stooge with this fact and ask them how much have they recovered till 2014 ....... this will shut down their canard. I have tried it and it works wonders!

This is where current GoI needs to show it is nationalist. This argument sounds like before asking us to push back Chinese ask Congress why they lost all that land. Now it sounds ridiculous because Indian civilization has already punished Congress not once but twice for all their misdeeds and treachery.
Here - if one is BJP supporter and/or nationalist - the only message should be we will push back the Chinese and our mission statement is to get back all our lost lands at some point, even if it is currently under Chinese occupation.

[darshan]

Posting after a long time....times are such.
One thing that has been bothering many of us in this forum is
A] Why did China choose this time to attack India...its not like its a post Covid reaction; we have posters posting proofs that the prep started last year Nov time frame itself.

chinese virus was out before that timeframe. There was a report that median date for first exposure within India is somewhere near November.
If one goes with the assumption that chinese "stumbled" upon the virus situation and executed their opportunity based plan then lot would make sense. Similar to cuban crisis. What Indians failed to learn is that chinese make plans for opportune times and are always prepared to act on them.

My best guess is that Modi had and still has umpteen fires to put out and rolled the dice on no such major crisis event happening to not tackle both local MIC and border infrastructure issues simultaneously. He chose easier one which was border infrastructure as it has less babus to fight against.

[VikramS]

Posting after a long time....times are such.
One thing that has been bothering many of us in this forum is
A] Why did China choose this time to attack India...its not like its a post Covid reaction; we have posters posting proofs that the prep started last year Nov time frame itself.

The root cause is the result of the 2019 elections.

A few months before the elections, it was not clear whether Modi would come back in power.

However, the Indian public surprised many by voting Modi back to power with an even greater majority.

Having sized up Modi, and realizing that unlike the INC, he is focussed on revitalizing the Indian civilization, the question of what to do with India arose.

Under Modi, the Indian Military Industrial Complex is finally waking up. There seems to be a stronger commitment among the Armed forces to go Desi. A few more years, and the gap between the Indian and the Chinese MIC would have narrowed.

The US is also under a cloud right now with a very unpredictable president whose commitment to traditional alliances and positions is not deemed questionable. The relationships with the Germans is a good example. Right now Germany is standing firm with China, perhaps because they sell a lot of high end vehicles and equipment to the Chinese market.

The Covid pandemic provided the window to accelerate any plans. The mishandling, especially by the non-BJP ruled states, like Delhi. Maha, WB, along with the help of 'single source spreaders' have ensured that the pandemic will not be contained to the extent folks were hoping in India. The US also has done poorly, and social unrest is rising.

So it was a desire to:

• Contain India's revivial
• Establish China as the Top Dog in Asia and the Paific
• Strengthen Xi's hold inside China

Combined with the opportunity the Covid Pandemic and the Trump presidency provided.

B] What can India do; can it strike first ? If yes, then in what manner that it has a shock and awe, China remembers it and plays to our strength of keeping it short and sweet.

India needs to focus on what China and Xi does not want to happen.

China's strength in this conflict is its domestic military industry, the captive supply chain, the construction infra, and the deep industrial production expertise.

Relative to these strengths, the human aspect of China is weaker. Their military is like Hotel California (where you can never leave). It is not battle hardened. And most of its members belong to single child family.

What the PLA and the CCP can not tolerate are high number of casualties.The great firewall has been able to suppress the number of Chinese casualties in the Galwan incident, and the Indian side has been keeping particularly quiet about that (no imagery or video evidence). It is representative of the Indian thinking to allow a face saving exit formula to exist.

So India needs to do the following:

1. Plan Indian action to cause the a large number of visible casualties to the PLA. The visible aspect is critical here.
2. Up the media and the psych-op game to find ways to get through the great firewall and get the message across that the CCP is engaged in an unnecessary war

One area where a short term fix can work is the nature of the ammunition used. India can lean on friendly countries to get more impactful weapon systems. Think in terms of MOAB, smart cluster and other conventional weapons which can take out large areas quickly.

Another aspect is EM Warfare. The mountains & valleys provide a natural safe-route to the IAF. if that can be complemented with more state of the art ECM systems they can act as a force multiplier. This is going to be a war where battle loses are inevitable. increasing the survivability allows India to engage for longer before the edge of the spear is blunted.

Smart Ammo/Weapons and EM may also be easier to procure and keep under the radar, compared to more visible purchases like Aircraft or Artillery or Ships.

[pankajs]

Not clear if this was going to be our stand or if this is our changed stance on COVID inquiry but China is not going to like it.

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1276575617471766528

India's EAM says Resolution at the World Health Assembly is an opportunity to use facts & science to "assess our response to this pandemic and take those lessons to prepare better for the future" & Chair of WHO Executive Board, "India is ready to work towards these goals."

Significance: India had backed resolution at world health assembly which seeks to find the source of the virus.

Things have started to move.
https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 2550614017

Japan sharpens focus on Indo-Pacific with new defense post. Tokyo bolsters staff for coordination with India, Australia and Southeast Asia. QUAD with many countries willing to join in.

Look at the timing. Seems as if the attack on India triggered the current round of reshuffling with US announcing Ind-Pacific deployment and then Japan opening its cards.

A week of so back, someone suggested that the US deploying 3 Carrier Strike force in the Champa sea (aka South China Sea) may have to do with China trying to make a play for Taiwan while the US is busy with elections.

Someone else suggested that Taiwan is going to declare independence soon as the reason.

[KL Dubey]

From the US perspective, there's a green belt spanning from northern Africa to Indonesia. Seeing India as a power would not be on their decks.

Correct

No, incorrect. The 1960s are very different from now. The US has waning/very little interest in the "green belt" beyond controlling jihadis and supporting Israel - energy interests have waned slowly as well.

I'm not saying USA sincerely wants to be India's bosom buddy, but the last thing USA would want is for India to become another jihadi-infested mess.

The "belt" from India through southeast asia and reaching up to Japan and Korea is key to the "Indo-Pacific" strategy and is not a "green belt". The only way for it to be successful is to help accelerate India's rise.

Naturally, we have our own ideas and plans beyond the Indo-Pacific/Quad etc partnerships.

[nam]

The Chini action and build up on LAC is quite on the grey area. In Pangong lake, they have blocked us from Finger 4 from the single file path near the lake, but the path through the height is open for us to outflank them.

Nobody is shooting, so they cannot do anything if we move in. They have tried to block direct path from the heights in to Finger 5.. but not after than. We could still land up on Finger 8 or even further..

Same on Galwan.

They definitely don't want us going in to war, as they are just about dipping their toe.. Unlike last time in Depsang, when they came all the way in..

Now they have got caught up in their own trap.. Now they cannot retreat until India stops the roads, nor can they retreat without a deal, nor get in to a war. At the same time they are loosing goodwill and trade.

[V_Raman]

@Manish_Sharma: Great explanation. US and China are in this together.

[Larry Walker]

https://twitter.com/VikramMisri/status/ ... 91072?s=19
It is entirely the responsibility of the Chinese side to take a careful view of the relations and to decide in which direction the ties should move. /End

Indian ambassador to PRC - sounds like final warning before things go kinetic.

[Manish_Sharma]

^ V_Raman, I disagree with you 100% regarding your view "India should make more effort try to be friends of China", All Indian PMs have gone out of their way to be friends with china. china cannot be anyone's friend as much as a Gila Monster/Scorpion/Snake can be anyone's friends.

Dog, Elephant, Buffalo can be befriended.

Cold blooded serpent species can never be anyone's friends.

We just have to keep buying time till our MIC is up and running.

[Larry Walker]

The Chini action and build up on LAC is quite on the grey area. In Pangong lake, they have blocked us from Finger 4 from the single file path near the lake, but the path through the height is open for us to outflank them.

Nobody is shooting, so they cannot do anything if we move in. They have tried to block direct path from the heights in to Finger 5.. but not after than. We could still land up on Finger 8 or even further..

Same on Galwan.

They definitely don't want us going in to war, as they are just about dipping their toe.. Unlike last time in Depsang, when they came all the way in..

Now they have got caught up in their own trap.. Now they cannot retreat until India stops the roads, nor can they retreat without a deal, nor get in to a war. At the same time they are loosing goodwill and trade.

It is technically going behind enemy lines. So if they somehow bypass the Chinese and teach F8 and then Chinese block return path - then wudnt our soldiers be in "Chinese custody" ?? Imagine what will happen on our prime-time news channels.

[Karan M]

The article mentions a laser gun- what the hell is a laser gun They probably meant laser sights on guns). At this point, I believe nothing that comes from even official channels, let alone unofficial channels.

They likely mean laser dazzlers. These can be used to blind soldiers and equipment, and PLA did extensive work to field them.

Re: MIC, GOI wanted peace at all costs to spend as much as they could on social justice and economy, and hence capped military spend at existing levels and our military/babucracy did not adequately project OROP, ergo spend went haywire, and then our forces preference to chase silver bullets stalled upgrades elsewhere. Basically, money matters and our budget has been limited. We may need a quasi-alliance w/US to allow access to massive lower cost financing, which would automatically give us leeway to spend elsewhere. However, in this world, there are no free lunches. Expect a lot of tooth gnashing over EJs and Ford Foundation as a result.

[Karan M]

I think this is old news, released now to make it appear as the latest update. No army worth it’s salt would move in a combat zone without effective AA/AD options. On the bit about new system, it would be almost impossible to operationalize a system to fight This war, here and now.

Most likely false news if they are talking about the S400.

However it is possible that it refers to a rush supply of MRSAM/Barak 8 direct from Rafael while India is still waiting for production to spool up from the Kalyani Rafael JV in India. The IN is familiar with the Barak 1 and given that tests of the Barak 8 have been done in India over the last 1 year, there is familiarity with the system and it's operation. Given the urgency of the current border issue it is possible that the Barak 8/MRSAM is being deployed without waiting for the full range of tests to pan out.

MRSAM was handed over to the IAF in August 2019. Its tests are complete.
https://www.vayuaerospace.in/Issue/vayu ... t-2019.pdf

MR-SAMs for IAFDefence Minister Rajnath Singh presented the first medium range surface-to-air-missile (MRSAM), built by Bharat Dynamics Limited(BDL) in collaboration with Israel, to the Indian Air Force on 3 August 2019. In Hyderabad to attend BDL’s golden jubilee celebrations, he handed over the MRSAM on behalf of BDL Chairman and Managing Director, Commodore Siddharth Mishra, to the IAF’s VCAS.

[NRao]

One of the images is wrong (wrong date or total fake). The Maxar image (supposedly) on 22nd shows the "defensive structures" that we discussed to the death here, and lo and behold!! the Planet Lab image (supposedly) on 25th shows no trace of that!!.

I think the Maxar image is an old one, just before 16th June. The 'structures' maybe the one that we objected to, and the chinese were supposed to have been dismantled.

Dileep,

Im not sure if you were responding to Larry or me. In any case this composite image here reflects build up between the 16th to 22nd and shows an increase in EN depl including persistent presence on Indian side:
https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 42785?s=21

Ah!! NZ rears its head.

Thx for the Gen. Narasimhan vid. Authentic.

[Karan M]

The 'Wolf Warriors' . . .

China recruits MMA fighters for Tibet border militia - South China Morning Post

The 16 Bihar Dhulai seems to have had an effect.....

Thank you. I will take Biharis and Sikhs willing to kill with bayonets over these MMA fighters. I wonder how many will remain after facing a bayonet charge.

[darshan]

as a Gila Monster/Scorpion/Snake can be anyone's friends.

Off topic, are u from somewhere near saguaro?

[Karan M]

I believe the chini MMA guys use a PLA h2h combat form called Sanda.

Rather ugly and disrespectful to the traditional forms but more effective.

Indians practice sanda everytime we go to the sandas. Don't worry. Most Indians are very very familiar with the concept of sandas, and typically associate it with Pakistan. Now, it will be associated with PRC as well.

[Manish_Sharma]

as a Gila Monster/Scorpion/Snake can be anyone's friends.

Off topic, are u from somewhere near saguaro?

Nope Delhi.

[ldev]

MRSAM was handed over to the IAF in August 2019. Its tests are complete.
https://www.vayuaerospace.in/Issue/vayu ... t-2019.pdf

MR-SAMs for IAFDefence Minister Rajnath Singh presented the first medium range surface-to-air-missile (MRSAM), built by Bharat Dynamics Limited(BDL) in collaboration with Israel, to the Indian Air Force on 3 August 2019. In Hyderabad to attend BDL’s golden jubilee celebrations, he handed over the MRSAM on behalf of BDL Chairman and Managing Director, Commodore Siddharth Mishra, to the IAF’s VCAS.

Thanks. That is a pleasant surprise. I was not following it closely. It's got a range of 100 km so fairly decent.

[TandavBrahmand]

The root cause is the result of the 2019 elections.

VikramS - you are bang on target with your root cause and subsequent analysis. Also, I agree with your suggestion on making the impact visible. CCP and such regimes thrive on obfuscation, opaqueness, and projecting larget than life images. If India can embed journalists, create massive impact, and visible casualties, it will have a massive impact on bloated egos of CCP mandarines.

Another thing about dealing with enemies bigger than your size is stealth and unpredictability. I hope we are thinking about these options. We have an ability to redraw lines (figuratively and literally) which we have shown on the western side. The announcement junking previous agreements on fist fight is a good start.

[nam]

MRSAM was handed over to the IAF in August 2019. Its tests are complete.
https://www.vayuaerospace.in/Issue/vayu ... t-2019.pdf

Thanks. That is a pleasant surprise. I was not following it closely. It's got a range of 100 km so fairly decent.

It would be a good surprise, if Israel sends across the ER version, which has got 150KM. Fundamentally Barak8 with a booster. Everything else remains the same.

A couple of tests with the boosters and we would have a potent SAM to form a counter to HQ9. Not to mention the fact that Barak 8 was designed for CM interception.

Chini SAM, along with CM & BM are the biggest threat. BM hopefully can be counter to some extent by AAD.

[nam]

It is technically going behind enemy lines. So if they somehow bypass the Chinese and teach F8 and then Chinese block return path - then wudnt our soldiers be in "Chinese custody" ?? Imagine what will happen on our prime-time news channels.

You send equal number, if required an entire battalion. They can be in custody only if they are cut off and surrender.

If physically attack our men, we shoot. ROE has been modified.

[chola]

I believe the chini MMA guys use a PLA h2h combat form called Sanda.

Rather ugly and disrespectful to the traditional forms but more effective.

Indians practice sanda everytime we go to the sandas. Don't worry. Most Indians are very very familiar with the concept of sandas, and typically associate it with Pakistan. Now, it will be associated with PRC as well.

Lol. Some logs are brown, some are yellow.

[Raveen]

There are two points which is not clear to me from all that I have read here

1) Why is China doing this?
2) Will the world powers support us?

.........If I was the US, I will want India to lose or rather not win. Because that is when India will be more agreeable to become a part of their camp on their terms.

very very true!

You guys are a hoot - all the US wants right now is for the hans to get pounded. They want China to lose more than anything.

[chola]

Great explanation. US and China are in this together.

You, sir, are completely nuts.

The US is reacting and we should take advantage of that reaction.

The truth is, yes, Unkil wants a war because it would give THEM and India a chance to bring Cheen down several rungs of the ladder.

My feeling is we would get US intelligence and supplies if we fight. Maybe even some USN maneuvering on the chini coast to keep them from going all out on our border.

But the main fight would be carried by Indians and that us why Modi has not pulled the trigger either on an offensive or create a scenario where Cheen has to attack which would be to our advantage.

If we have evidence of the 43 PLA dead, we should splash them globally so that it rebounds into Cheen. Show dead chini bodies. Show dead chini faces. Xi will be forced to respond or be shown as paper tigers.

But neither side wants war which is why Modi is giving Xi a chance to slink away.

[Manish_Sharma]

very very true!

You guys are a hoot - all the US wants right now is for the hans to get pounded. They want China to lose more than anything.

Let's see how much help comes from USA. BRF seems agreed upon that they're helping with satellite imagery and intelligence about cheeni army moments, what else. Hopefully I turn out to be wrong and you right that US helps unconditionally.

[nam]

When the Chinese were getting shot by the Soviets, they were in the exact place as we are now. Either fight the Soviets alone or get help from US in return for helping to contain Soviets.

The result is clear as water. The Chinis are desperate to prevent a war with us, becoz they know what will happen next. Doesn't matter what the result of the war will be.

US is the wealthiest market and it's allies Taiwan, Japan & SK( & Germany?) are the technological fountain head of human civilization.

These 5 countries MADE today's China.

It we cannot see such simple facts, we don't deserve to be a world power.

[KL Dubey]

I found this in my archives, but unfortunately can't find link for this post:

JE Menon wrote:

I'm having difficulty with the case being made that the us is playing the "balance of power" game, but at the same time wants to "protect" China by "managing" India? Why? They like China more?


Rudradev wrote:

JEM!

^^ Misleading analysis based upon too many conjectures. USA is very clear that both India and China are empires, not your garden-variety countries. There are two key differences:

- India's empire has been assembled through common linkages, any use of force has only been to suppress alien influences that do not belong to our ethos. Every part of the Indian Union is allowed and encouraged to have its distinctive culture, language, etc. The only debate has been whether to add a layer of cultural uniformity on top of that, and if so then how to do it without suppressing the local cultures. And on top of that, managing a "democratic" system. OTOH China's empire has been assembled by endless coercion, genocide, and repression. All cultures and traditions have nearly been wiped out. People have no guaranteed rights worth a bat's azz.

- The USA-China economic "embrace" has been due to the fact that China has been "easier to deal with" for US businesses - an authoritarian regime that will get things done if you don't ask too many questions about the methods. Single point-of-contact, not needing to worry about political opposition, public opinion, media, litigations, etc etc. India on the other hand, hadn't (till recently) found a way to clean up its act and reliably engage with the world while still having its open society. Two solid election results have brought change. It must continue.

In summary, the USA has had 3-4 decades of enjoying the advantages of "simple dealings" with authoritarian China. Now it is seeing the down side of things, i.e. China has shown its true colors and devious ways. Let us hope the USA sees sense and wakes up to the fact that there is a price to pay for cozying up to a repressive and sneaky regime that has a single-minded plan to usurp US influence and prestige. So far the signs are positive that such realization has set in and is leading to real action that reverses the tide. The 2020 election - in which Trump should secure a victory - will hopefully lead to a strong India-USA partnership on all fronts.

[ks_sachin]

The root cause is the result of the 2019 elections.

VikramS - you are bang on target with your root cause and subsequent analysis. Also, I agree with your suggestion on making the impact visible. CCP and such regimes thrive on obfuscation, opaqueness, and projecting larget than life images. If India can embed journalists, create massive impact, and visible casualties, it will have a massive impact on bloated egos of CCP mandarines.

Another thing about dealing with enemies bigger than your size is stealth and unpredictability. I hope we are thinking about these options. We have an ability to redraw lines (figuratively and literally) which we have shown on the western side. The announcement junking previous agreements on fist fight is a good start.

Is that user name allowed?

Please read about the terrain.

[NRao]

OT.

The "US" that will come to India's "help" consists of USN (in particular), USPACOM (note: even Gen. Matis was not familiar with India - as much as he should have been - because he was CENTCOM centric), US MIC, a handful of very powerful Senators (on both sides of the aisle) and that is about it.

Neither of the two party's leadership has any idea of what it means to help another nation, what is geo-politics, what really can be accomplished through the US (I am not a fan of the UN, never been), etc. The entire US political leadership (I include Clintons, Obamas, etc) have lost their edge and one can see it in their third world like behavior.

So, expect some lip service from the actual leaders, but as far as moving the needle, better to approach the MIC (with the hope they can move the political system, in addition to delivering the product). IMHO Howdy Modi was uncalled for (including US politicians, that is) and I think it will be a *very big thorn* if Biden is elected. Biden by himself IMHO is not that much of a threat. I think circumstances have forced him to take positions to his left that he normally would not take - and that *will* hurt Indian.

There were a couple of incidents that occurred during NS's era that I do not think will come to bite only because the military leadership in Washington has recycled and I would be very surprised if there is any institutional memory remaining.

On alliances/partnerships, I do not see a need for any formalities. A few important FONOPS trips - which is the focus - should do for the near future.

/OT

I think/feel that Indian policy going forward will have a far more impact than any alliances (as important as they will be) - including the Quad. The key - IMHO - will be the dumping of the One China policy. Once that is stated, then pretty much everything else falls into place. The LAC vanishes. In fact, the erstwhile LAC becomes the wild wild west. No more CBMs, etc. I can see Tibet becoming a counter to what Pakistan+China do in Kashmir. And, if Balouch (whatever happened to Ulan ji? Has he gone to org an uprising in B'sthan?) goes kinetic, ................

So, it all depends on how far India wants the China relationship to deteriorate. Alliances, etc come after that.

[Guddu]

Clearly .. Flying on a Mil Heli with soldiers during a tense standoff and expecting to be received with flowers instead of a SAM is the extent of your understanding of how things work between military during hostilities!

Folks are inventing filmi script to hide their dhoti shiver.

I said I will volunteer for a mission like this. Now who is dhoti shivering? Like I pointed out earlier some operations need imagination but are not fantasy like how Entebbe was executed. If it is a filmi story then you have clearly and completely missed the plot.

Sir, godspeed to you. to increase safety, pl. take pappu with you.