India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[arshyam]

I have read that Chinese fighter jets spotted in POK. If they are opening a new front, how will we defend?

We can't. Let's go home onlee..

[darshan]

Or by calling in new round of MMRCA. Just mere thought of IAF selecting the best fighter out there would make them vacate.

[williams]

According to the June 27 order issued by the director of the Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs Department in Kashmir, an adviser to Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor G C Murmu has passed directions in a meeting on June 23 "to ensure sufficient stocks of LPG in the valley as the supply of the same gets affected due to closure of the National Highway on account of frequent landslides"

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/ ... ews-629727

havent heard this step in the previous years (which were equally prone to landslides).

points to something brewing?

Yes, these are civil defense moves. But why in Kashmir and not in Ladakh? There could be more action in the west to solve the problem in the east. Or people leaked it in Kashmir.

[schinnas]

The idea might be to leave the COIN operations to CAPF such CRPF and free up RR for border operations in case of two front war.

[williams]

I have read that Chinese fighter jets spotted in POK. If they are opening a new front, how will we defend?

What new front? We always knew that. But I want to warn the lurkers from the neighborhood. When Balakot happened, the mighty Paki AF used f16s only and failed miserably. Pakis knew Chinese planes are duds against IAF and any demonstration of that in public is a big no for Chinese H&D, so they might do something for optics but when the rubber hits the road we will dominate the skies in the west.

[RaviB]

NRao, ks_sachin, RaviB,

Piecing together American and Indian commentaries, I’m trying to stitch together a picture. Let me know what y’all think:

1. CCP is under sever internal duress. CMC is feeling threatened by the increasingly hostile attitude the free world is adopting towards them.

The CCP has more or less gotten away with the Wuhan virus. There was initial criticism but then when the CCP spread the news of how all democracies, especially the USA had failed at handling CV, the domestic public was even thankful for the forceful handling. In rural areas there appears to be high unemployment, many migrant workers have not returned to work. That may be a problem for them in the future. (the Chinese model is poor family farm managed by grandparents, children also live there, parents work in Guangzhou, send back money and visit on Chini new year)

2. True to their nature, when they are weak, they must appear all strong and mighty and so you see the odd boat sunk in Vietnam, forays in Japan and ROK and the only (IMO unexpectedly bloody) clash in India. Unexpected only in that casualty count inflicted on either side is quite large.

I've said this before, they very carefully watch US moves, because that's who they're afraid of. I think the US election cycle combined with every country being focused on CV has given them the space to be pushy elsewhere. In 1962, they attacked during the Cuban missile crisis when both USA and USSR were distracted and out of the picture.
They certainly weren't expecting any blowback, especially not any casualties. That has derailed some of their plans. They originally planned this to time with the election cycle because no American president would send soldiers anywhere or even pay any attention to an India-China conflict. (or rather from their perspective, inflicting military punishment on India) at this time.

4. In the specific Indian conundrum, it finds itself in a Tough situation. It can’t withdraw for that would be a humiliation. It realistically can not fight a prolonged conflict because the cost inflicted in a sustained battle of attrition state on state would be too high. Not to mention, their ETC AOR starts experiencing unprecedented levels of pressure from their “other friendly states”.

They do not expect to fight a war of attrition. They also lack the logistics for that in the WTC. They want a "short, sharp war". They expect to win completely. Till they have everything lined up, they will talk. When they are ready, they will just do a "defensive counter-attack". They'll claim India started it and attempt to win and hold territory. The infantry is obviously there to hold territory.
As to "other friendly states", I think Japanese actions on Senkaku have spooked them, also news about redeployment of some missiles and such. India-Japan engagement is being overlooked right now, but I think it's more important than the combined India-Aus signalling.

5. For the WTC, I see 3 options. Option 1, continue the deployment, withdraw forces here, redeploy there. No effective change in situation on ground. I find this tenable in the medium term before the winter sets in. Beyond that, domestic political pressure in India would be too much for the government not to do anything and/or for CCP to sustain a military deployment with nothing to show for so long.

There is internal rivalry in the WTC. Gen Xu Qiling is the SHA ground forces guy. If they think they will win, the SHA air force will want to be on it. A combined attack is also the very purpose of creating the WTC, so it'll definitely be Land+Air. Long deployments are out, short war is what they want right now.

There may be lack of political resolve or maybe their preparations are not complete. Otherwise, there is no reason for them not to start a war. Lack of political resolve can be seen in the absence of hysteria in their domestic media. The entire crisis is being downplayed. Once the political resolve is there, there will be loud threats for a day or two before they start. Not in the Gobar times but likely directly at the diplomatic level. That's something to watch out for.

6. Option 2, sack the WTC commander, blame him for mischief and acting alone, do a wuhan redux ( perhaps wuhan is a bad idea right now). But you get the picture. Declare victory and continue as if nothing happened. I see this as tenable externally, I.e, to India, as it would mean a return to pre April 2020 positions on the ground. However, I would find this untenable internally. PRC troops were KIA, the SHA has nothing to show for it, besides the otherwise hostile world is all the more hostile yet. I see this as A gamble internally for CMC going right up to the top. Things may or may not pan out. Someone will end up swinging from the lamppost and quite visibly so,

Gen Zhao won't go anywhere, he's too well connected to Xi. A victory will get him into the CMC, defeat would mean another attempt next summer. Gen Xu might be shuffled elsewhere, he is the SHAGF guy, he's new and his crack team is the one that got killed. But that would probably happen silently and later.

7. Option 3. Initiate a border conflict, make it so the other side fires first and you are the “ defender “. Inflict visible and undeniable pain and immediately withdraw to pre April 2020 positions having demonstrated the will and might of the SHA. Simultaneously sue for peace with the withdrawal as a gesture. I see this as tenable internally, maybe tenable externally ? Since it provides a face saver for CCP while achieving GOIs stated goal of a restoration to pre 04-2020 GPL

.
This is highly likely to be the plan. They will definitely create the "defending against aggression" narrative. Imperialist aggression is a bad word in CCP ideology, so they like to dress it up as self-defense.

The talking in any case is absolute rubbish. It's wasting or buying time, nothing else.

This thing was definitely operationalised by Nov 2019. Even if the CCP knew about CV, nobody else did, so there was no reason to do it as a distraction domestically or to ward off international pressure. The military operation must have been planned in 2018 and approved following the success of earlier exercises in Tibet. (very big) maybe, Ladakh UT was the trigger for final political approval. But I think it had received political approval well before that.

[fanne]

I have read that Chinese fighter jets spotted in POK. If they are opening a new front, how will we defend?

Simple we will run crying mummy and then get under the bed and shiver in our dhoti!!

[fanne]

On serious note how many of you are picking up the actual number on Chinese causality? It is rumored to be 123. 123 to our 20. That day dance of Shiva was something. Of course the guys who died did not debrief how many they killed. Our number was from the body that washed up and from debriefing of heros who made it alive. Intel is putting some other number. No one knows the number from ridge collapse (not all body would have fallen into the river (remember, the river was blocked and regardless many high lying area in the river bed exist, mainly towards the base of the mountain that had the ridge)

[Kanson]

Anyone have a good explanation for China's desire to change the status quo? Why on earth did they start this. Their official claim is the road and base next to Aksai Chin. Is this the entire story. Is this some kind of message to show power and scare India from trying to reclaim Aksai Chin?

1. The reason is COVID19 virus pandemic.

Maybe if you asked why on earth did they start this NOW ?

Why NOW?. Answer is COVID19. Atleast the trigger is COVID19.

2. Now why they choose Ladakh of all places to target?
Answer is obvious. Indians oppose CPEC and made threatening statements: on their construction activities every now & then, showed intent to reclaim our own land.
Militarly: opening a front in Arunachal or sikkim would see an immediate indian counter-reponse on ladakh. It will be akin to India having upper hand. So it pays much more dividend to attack Ladakh than other places.

3. What is the objective? Immediate objective of their action?
Threaten India. Or if needed they want to punish India

Post COVID19 they dont know how ro react. They did what they usually do. And their reponse is too late to ask forgiveness. So they are aware backlash is so real. Any token gesture is not going to pacify or reverse the fallout.
And their reaction falls on two major axis:
1. Appeasement
2. Threat ( by force or trade)

To some it made trade deal taking appeasement route. They bought leaders in other scenarios and made peace & secured their trade & investment.
And to countries like India, Japan or Taiwan (to whom they have bitter relations) they cant bend & project themselves as weaker, which could trigger the demand for more concession or face loss. Which they cant afford.

So they are using threat.

Further the way we are: currently as WHO chair we can jeopardise chinese design, our move to absorb leaving companies frm china, we are making fresh geopolitical alignment post covid19 that threatens china & other things as well, made china to convince only threat through force is the option left for India.

4. Why they desire to change the status quo?
It is their way of grabing land more & more. China is doing this from 50's. Nothing new. It is an expansionist regime. They are doing to protect their interest, say CPEC/whatever and at the sametime strategically cut India(its competitor) to its size.

[schinnas]

The true brahmastra India has is to subtly threaten their merchant vessels. A proclamation by unnamed official sources that war in Ladakh will extend to Malaca straights would be sufficient.

What Cheen fears most is the flight of capital and manufacturing capacity out of China. It hurts them in multiple ways. They are able to make things cheap because of huge economies of scale and vertically integrated supply chains. Even if 25% decline in manufacturing were to happen, it will set them back severely and make many entities just unviable and trigger a prolonged depression.

The increase in freight insurance and delays and risk to all merchandise shipments from China will be sufficient to give the final push to Apples and Walmarts of the world to move out of China for all their export needs. Of course for domestic China sales they can continue to make in China.

The resulting job loss will trigger further revolt against CCP. The ROI of sinking a few merchant vessels are too numerous to let go. The red line could be that any rocket force attack or two front attack will invite an automatic attack on Chinese merchant vessels in Malacca straights.

[AshishA]

I am hearing that Superior Hans have centralized the leadership of military reserve force. Starting from July 1, the reserve force, which is part of the People's Liberation Army (SHA), will fall under the direct leadership of the Central govt and the Central Military Commission.

And supposedly the last time they did this ( temporarily ) was during Vietnam war in 1979.

What are the implications of this? Are they going for escalation?

[RaviB]

Gurus, can someone tell what will happen to the fortifications between F8-F4 in pongong tso on the Tibet side during the November-March?

Can Hans stay in there with whatever supplies they already got till October even after their rear supply lines get cut off due to 30 feet snow?

Can't we go there and ask them to vacate the place and remove red flags and put up tricolors?

Is my assumption that there will be 30 feet snow is valid at all?

No Ladakh is a desert. 30 feet deep snow/ice only occurs at very high altitudes in certain parts. Rivers do get iced over. Maximum precipitation happens in August-October period.

See the image from February at 3,900m, the snow is barely ankle deep, apart from the stream bed

An overview of the entire area to show you how little snow there is, this is in september

There will be very strong wind (as usual) and very low night temperatures depending on where you are.

[abhik]

IMO people need to go easy on the Malaka straights blockade business - we haven't even decided to use INSAS 1B yet, so naval blockades etc is just in the realm of wet dreams.

[ldev]

IMO people need to go easy on the Malaka straights blockade business - we haven't even decided to use INSAS 1B yet, so naval blockades etc is just in the realm of wet dreams.

Correct, no harm in dreaming:

One of the most important shipping lanes on the planet is the Strait of Malacca, the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which you can see here as a congested line of ships traveling past Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. About 40 percent of world trade passes through this strait each year, including much of the crude oil that goes from the Middle East to China.

[rpartha]

NRao, ks_sachin, RaviB,

Piecing together American and Indian commentaries, I’m trying to stitch together a picture. Let me know what y’all think:

1. CCP is under sever internal duress. CMC is feeling threatened by the increasingly hostile attitude the free world is adopting towards them.

The CCP has more or less gotten away with the Wuhan virus. There was initial criticism but then when the CCP spread the news of how all democracies, especially the USA had failed at handling CV, the domestic public was even thankful for the forceful handling. In rural areas there appears to be high unemployment, many migrant workers have not returned to work. That may be a problem for them in the future. (the Chinese model is poor family farm managed by grandparents, children also live there, parents work in Guangzhou, send back money and visit on Chini new year)

2. True to their nature, when they are weak, they must appear all strong and mighty and so you see the odd boat sunk in Vietnam, forays in Japan and ROK and the only (IMO unexpectedly bloody) clash in India. Unexpected only in that casualty count inflicted on either side is quite large.

I've said this before, they very carefully watch US moves, because that's who they're afraid of. I think the US election cycle combined with every country being focused on CV has given them the space to be pushy elsewhere. In 1962, they attacked during the Cuban missile crisis when both USA and USSR were distracted and out of the picture.
They certainly weren't expecting any blowback, especially not any casualties. That has derailed some of their plans. They originally planned this to time with the election cycle because no American president would send soldiers anywhere or even pay any attention to an India-China conflict. (or rather from their perspective, inflicting military punishment on India) at this time.

4. In the specific Indian conundrum, it finds itself in a Tough situation. It can’t withdraw for that would be a humiliation. It realistically can not fight a prolonged conflict because the cost inflicted in a sustained battle of attrition state on state would be too high. Not to mention, their ETC AOR starts experiencing unprecedented levels of pressure from their “other friendly states”.

They do not expect to fight a war of attrition. They also lack the logistics for that in the WTC. They want a "short, sharp war". They expect to win completely. Till they have everything lined up, they will talk. When they are ready, they will just do a "defensive counter-attack". They'll claim India started it and attempt to win and hold territory. The infantry is obviously there to hold territory.
As to "other friendly states", I think Japanese actions on Senkaku have spooked them, also news about redeployment of some missiles and such. India-Japan engagement is being overlooked right now, but I think it's more important than the combined India-Aus signalling.

5. For the WTC, I see 3 options. Option 1, continue the deployment, withdraw forces here, redeploy there. No effective change in situation on ground. I find this tenable in the medium term before the winter sets in. Beyond that, domestic political pressure in India would be too much for the government not to do anything and/or for CCP to sustain a military deployment with nothing to show for so long.

There is internal rivalry in the WTC. Gen Xu Qiling is the SHA ground forces guy. If they think they will win, the SHA air force will want to be on it. A combined attack is also the very purpose of creating the WTC, so it'll definitely be Land+Air. Long deployments are out, short war is what they want right now.

There may be lack of political resolve or maybe their preparations are not complete. Otherwise, there is no reason for them not to start a war. Lack of political resolve can be seen in the absence of hysteria in their domestic media. The entire crisis is being downplayed. Once the political resolve is there, there will be loud threats for a day or two before they start. Not in the Gobar times but likely directly at the diplomatic level. That's something to watch out for.

6. Option 2, sack the WTC commander, blame him for mischief and acting alone, do a wuhan redux ( perhaps wuhan is a bad idea right now). But you get the picture. Declare victory and continue as if nothing happened. I see this as tenable externally, I.e, to India, as it would mean a return to pre April 2020 positions on the ground. However, I would find this untenable internally. PRC troops were KIA, the SHA has nothing to show for it, besides the otherwise hostile world is all the more hostile yet. I see this as A gamble internally for CMC going right up to the top. Things may or may not pan out. Someone will end up swinging from the lamppost and quite visibly so,

Gen Zhao won't go anywhere, he's too well connected to Xi. A victory will get him into the CMC, defeat would mean another attempt next summer. Gen Xu might be shuffled elsewhere, he is the SHAGF guy, he's new and his crack team is the one that got killed. But that would probably happen silently and later.

7. Option 3. Initiate a border conflict, make it so the other side fires first and you are the “ defender “. Inflict visible and undeniable pain and immediately withdraw to pre April 2020 positions having demonstrated the will and might of the SHA. Simultaneously sue for peace with the withdrawal as a gesture. I see this as tenable internally, maybe tenable externally ? Since it provides a face saver for CCP while achieving GOIs stated goal of a restoration to pre 04-2020 GPL

.
This is highly likely to be the plan. They will definitely create the "defending against aggression" narrative. Imperialist aggression is a bad word in CCP ideology, so they like to dress it up as self-defense.

The talking in any case is absolute rubbish. It's wasting or buying time, nothing else.

This thing was definitely operationalised by Nov 2019. Even if the CCP knew about CV, nobody else did, so there was no reason to do it as a distraction domestically or to ward off international pressure. The military operation must have been planned in 2018 and approved following the success of earlier exercises in Tibet. (very big) maybe, Ladakh UT was the trigger for final political approval. But I think it had received political approval well before that.

Ravi, you read my mind... the Bibari boys did something that they weren't expecting which is what I had mentioned in my previous post... now they are looking for a way to still make the plan success.. they didnt think India will defend like the way they are defending now... but that attack on the night of Jun 15th changed the plans and their initial plan to capture the lands and make it new de facto... they still have Ponsong but India is downplaying it already stating that we used to have control only till F4.

[Dilbu]

From shiv Aroor. We are waiting for de-escalation onlee.
Ladakh standoff: Clear view of why China isn't budging emerges

Government and Army officials are clear that the positions seen at the bend in the Galwan River since June 22 are Chinese. The Indian Army was aware of the build-up long before commercial satellite imagery revealed the situation, though developments on the ground are now part of a larger effort to disengage, and therefore, no combat action has been taken by the Indian side. While Chinese troop numbers solely at the river bend complex have reduced almost completely since June 25, the structures remain.

While the Indian Army has mobilised more than adequately in frontline and support positions in the Galwan Valley, including mountain squads manning at least three vantage heights overlooking the river bend, it is something else that is compelling the Chinese to dig their heels in -- a concerted, dogged effort by the Indian side to complete infrastructure work.

From bridges and culverts across the Galwan nearer to the confluence, including a bailey bridge built in record time following the bloodshed, the Indian side has made it openly clear to the Chinese that the Indian military will continue to execute infrastructure work, including the crucial highway into north Ladakh on the west bank of the Shyok River.

At least four border road projects have picked up in the last few days, with labour arriving from outside Ladakh. Directives from the political leadership are clear: there will be no compromise on infrastructure work, both civil and military, and, while talks continue with the Chinese side, there is no question of slowing down on roadworks on Indian territory.

In the government's view, the reaction of Indian Army on June 15 to Chinese provocations, combined with the decision not to pause a single border infrastructure project, have sent out a clear message to the Chinese that aggression will be met with strength, if necessary on Chinese turf.

[NRao]

The "melee" that occurred at Galqan was, from an Indian PoV, spontaneous. It was not part of any Indian policy coming out of MEA or NSA. The spontaneous act did disrupt China's planS and that is without a doubt a feather in the Indian cap. But, on the flip side, China can now recalibrate knowing that MEA is back in charge. Now we are back on script. IMHO, time to forget that Galwan incident so that India can concentrate on the script at hand. At the moment this focus is more important.

On the topic of boarding ships, India - as far as I can see - has never even sent a ship on FONOPs into the SCS. If Indians board a Chinese bound ship, India better be prepared for the worst. I would not be surprised if China, while in "training" with Pakistani and a few other national sailors, boards an Indian bound ship and uses the Pakistanis to take the ship to their port.

I do see one thing coming for sure: China will demand that India produce the IA person/s who started the Galwan melee and punish that/those person/s. IF India does not some other screw will tighten at China's convenience. China will control the narrative here on out by keeping a few steps ahead of India.and, while India has to deliberate - killing time - China has no such compulsions.

IMHO, India has to act for sure. And act to absolutely crush China's plans in Ladakh - at whatever cost. No two-bit things like taking back F4-8. And what India gains should not be given back. And, if China wants to negotiate repeat what China did - kill time and shamelessly take more.

[ks_sachin]

According to the June 27 order issued by the director of the Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs Department in Kashmir, an adviser to Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor G C Murmu has passed directions in a meeting on June 23 "to ensure sufficient stocks of LPG in the valley as the supply of the same gets affected due to closure of the National Highway on account of frequent landslides"

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/ ... ews-629727

havent heard this step in the previous years (which were equally prone to landslides).

points to something brewing?

Yes, these are civil defense moves. But why in Kashmir and not in Ladakh? There could be more action in the west to solve the problem in the east. Or people leaked it in Kashmir.

Roads in Ladakh are possible not prone to landslides. Leh - Karu - Demchok is an all weather road open all year round. The Banihal tunnel meanwhile is another story.

[ManuJ]

Turning the discussion back to infrastructure, because that's what matters in the long run.

India sorely needs an alternative route to the Depsang plains and Karakoram pass. The road through Saser La pass offers that alternative, but for the difficulties in building a road through the frozen ice pack, on which BRO has apparently been working on for decades. The map shows that this difficult stretch is only 15 km. A tunnel sounds like a better option here. A tunnel through Saser La and another through Khardung La will give India the shortest, all-weather, non-interdictable route from Leh to Depsang and Karakoram.

India also needs another air base in the area apart from Leh. Thoise seems to be the best choice. It already has the best infrastructure after Leh, and a second runway is possible with a little reclaimed land from the river bed or mountain side. We also need to expand Leh AFB to add another runway.

[Mickey]

Dear Rakshaks, Thankyou for allowing me onboard.

The Chinese are the real admirers of US power. They want to replace the US but also mimic them to the 'T'. I read in the earlier pages that they discuss about Iraq war invasion strategy on their social media. So, If one looks at how the US did then, the Chinese will start with a air domination operation and target important places and then invade with ground forces, call a ceasefire and come to the negotiating table.

Some of the following is reality and the rest is just hypothetical (till now).

1.Tie-Up Indian forces in their northern and western sector, where India is busy matching Chinese deployments.

2.Cause Indo-Nepal tensions so that sentiments of people become negative, therefore making the inter-government co-ordination poor, also prevents India from using the Nepalese roads to enter China (If required).

3. China has just proposed to reduce 97% tariff of around 5000 items it imports from Bangladesh from 1st July, thereby making them atleast a neutral party in an Indo-China dispute.

4. Arunachal and Assam are already facing floods, release more water into the Brahmaputra cause more flooding.

5.Invade Bhutan, attack the palace and other important areas of government by Air, start a ground invasion into Bhutan. In the meantime, The Bhutan communist party with an armed cadre of 600-1000 people (as per wiki) will try to hold their ground targets.

6. When Indian forces begin to build up, claim ceasefire and start Chai-Biskoot with the Bhutan government and Indian government from a position of strength.

Why would China do that?

1. To keep the war short. If they invade India, Modiji will not be in a position to hold back the forces and will lead to a much bigger war, until both the sides have some bargaining chip to return to status quo ante. It will just turn murky.

2. Bhutan is one of the 5 fingers to reunite their ancient Kingdom.

3. Rub it in to India, for all the government changes and geopolitical game play in the vicinity of India.

4. Show the government in bad light. Reduce the 56" chest so that a government change can happen in 2024. The new government may hand them the territory via some Track II diplomacy without a shot being fired.

5. Preserve their own H&D by avoiding a bloody nose, validate their tactics and shiny new equipment.

6. Threaten Indian territory at the Siliguri corridor.

If I look from a Chinese point of view, they have so much to Win and so little to lose if the target is Bhutan.

With all that is going on between Indo-China only Bhutan seems relatively uninvolved as yet with no news coming out of it. leads me to believe it may be due to the deception tactics of the Chinese. Is it because it is the target? I don't know.

Is such a scenario possible? The defense of Bhutan also is our responsibility, can India engage chinese forces from other areas if China invades Bhutan?

Can the gurus enlighten us?

[abhik]

Turning the discussion back to infrastructure, because that's what matters in the long run.

India sorely needs an alternative route to the Depsang plains and Karakoram pass. The road through Saser La pass offers that alternative, but for the difficulties in building a road through the frozen ice pack, on which BRO has apparently been working on for decades. The map shows that this difficult stretch is only 15 km. A tunnel sounds like a better option here. A tunnel through Saser La and another through Khardung La will give India the shortest, all-weather, non-interdictable route from Leh to Depsang and Karakoram.

India also needs another air base in the area apart from Leh. Thoise seems to be the best choice. It already has the best infrastructure after Leh, and a second runway is possible with a little reclaimed land from the river bed or mountain side. We also need to expand Leh AFB to add another runway.

Having done a "virtual" tour of the route (on GMaps ) I'm very sceptical about the Saser La pass alternative, such a tunnel(s) will cost thousands of crores and 6-8 years to complete at least. I just don't see such large investment happening, that too for an "alternate" route with practically zero commercial/civilian use.

Air connectivity wise we should start by at least paving all the AGLs, surprising that it has not already been completed, since the ones in AP seems to all be paved.

[Vadivel]

The only problem With Bhutan being invaded is, it will immediately involve the international community, Bhutan has a net positive harmless image. This would force China to face EU and US diplomatically across the table and would lead into trade sanctions if not complied immediately.

[Cain Marko]

[

It is pretty apparent that we dominate Cheen in both the air and the sea in any likely theater. We also have (or had) a huge numbers advantage on the ground.

So how do you think the PRC will react going forward? If they are irrational and attack then our problem is solved, we'll crush them militarily.

But the problem is they are not irrational. There is a reason why they haven't fought in 40 years. They don't do things they are disadvantaged in -- like fighting.

The action they will take on the LAC is the easiest and most successful one for them. They will build up infrastructure and men year after year along the gray zone and challenge us to match them. It will be a contest of infrastructure building and supply. Every inch of land we can't reach or supply will be taken over by their boots.

There will no longer be just patrols but permanent basing.

They want to make it a logistics contest instead of a combat one. The question is whether we want to match here which is to their advantage or we go kinetic which is to ours?

Nice assessment and summary. But why do you doubt that the army still has the advantage in the border? Have the Chinese built up that much?

[Pashupatastra]

chttps://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/psychol ... se-play-us

As the author alludes to the "defensive lines" , it is worthwhile to think about India's aversion to back up the claims and facts by use of force. Lately , our political narrative is to fight all the defensive wars on our own turf and in turn absorbing the damage. A quick war in 2019 over PoK would have sent a strong message to all adversaries and backed up India's claim as an emerging superpower. However , for politicians , the real deal is holding and taking part in "elections". An election campaign , process , victory is the ultimate goal of a career politician and he would brook no resistance or encumbrance to his right to plan for and campaign. For all political parties across spectrum , the upcoming elections in states hold a far greater promise than deliberating on mundane issues like PoK , Ladakh etc. The real resolve , strategic understanding and ability to execute is reserved for political battles and supremacy in electoral victory. The life of a political worker holds more value than of a soldier and party donations trump honest taxes. The politicians of India always take a decision which can preserve their ill gotten wealth , privilege and clout. Even if the general public may be ready to sacrifice their all , the politicians refuse to take any decision which will harm their interests. The real battle will not be fought in Ladakh or Indian Ocean , it will be decided in the electoral outcomes of states like Bihar.

[Manish_Sharma]

More dirt on Shookla ji.

Can someone please identify this former general being refereed to here.

brigadier retd. gurmeet kanwal chummed up with porki retired brig. asad hakeem and wrote a paper on why Bharatiya Sena should vacate Siachin. India Today's Rahul kanwal is gurmeet kanwal's son who feverishly runs from one map screen to other map screen drumming up fears raising doubts.

We had a very hot Thread on "Siachin Vacating" where poster ShauryaT would do worshiping of gurmeet kanwal and tell us how wrong General of the Army V.K. Singh is but we should be very respectful and agree towards gurmeet kanwal. Later Rohit Vats and Brihaspati ji crushed the ShauryaT group with hard facts.

INDIA TODAY & AAJ TAK are just more sophisticated version of rNDTV.

[Cain Marko]

So what options does modi have? Frankly I feel that he has done a solid job so far in terms of retaliation. Always out guessed everybody. One thing is for sure, he won't let this go unanswered, India will get it's pound of flesh, question is how and where? Here are some options:

Someone, I think Ldev, said that the Indian Navy should sink a plan vessel or two.... That's an idea. But the casualty count should be kept low which will be hard to do. Otherwise, there will be all out war, the Chinese will have no choice.

Others have suggested choking the Chinese in the straits. This is possible but not necessary at this point IMHO.

If it is naval op, I'd like to see them hit some docked vessels in Gwadar and do maximum damage to infrastructure with minimal body count. Make the tsp feel the pain as well.

Ideal hit would be to just gain more control over pok.. .. India has full rights to take this back and it would totally skewer cpec/obor. In the process totally dismantle any and everything Chinese in that place. In one fell swoop, we neuter both tsp and chicom. Neither galwan nor rest of lac matter so much (so long as they don't cross into India).

Do the hit and sue for peace. With due warning that any shenanigans from either side will be considered all out war and they can expect full scale response.

Frankly I think this is what Modiji will do. It will also give Cheen enough space to save face. Afterall, they can claim we didn't attack their territory. The only thing is, can we orient the forces in such a way that a strong defensive line is held everywhere else, while the brunt is brought to bear on POK?

Game over.

[Roop]

Option 3. Initiate a border conflict, make it so the other side fires first and you are the “ defender “. Inflict visible and undeniable pain and immediately withdraw to pre April 2020 positions having demonstrated the will and might of the SHA. Simultaneously sue for peace with the withdrawal as a gesture.

They can do most of what you said, including "inflict visible and undeniable pain" on India, but not without suffering the same visible and undeniable pain themselves themselves.

I see this as tenable internally, maybe tenable externally ? Since it provides a face saver for CCP while achieving GOIs stated goal of a restoration to pre 04-2020 GPL.

Tenable internally? May be. Tenable externally? Face saver for CCP? No way in hell, assuming the Indian political / diplomatic establishment is awake and alert, not asleep at the switch or foolishly trying to save China's H&D or avoid humiliating them. The message from Delhi to the world will be "Mission accomplished! The SHA thought they could attack us, give us a bloody nose and get away unscathed. Well, look what happened: they gave us a bloody nose but we smashed their faces in and kicked their asses all the way back to their April positions".

That message, if loudly trumpeted at the UN and in diplomatic chanceries all over the world, will be a massive humiliation for China. It will also have the side benefits of raising India's diplomatic stature in the world, stiffening the spines of ordinary Indians and smothering the cowardly shivering-dhotis.

[ManuJ]

I'm very sceptical about the Saser La pass alternative, such a tunnel(s) will cost thousands of crores and 6-8 years to complete at least. I just don't see such large investment happening, that too for an "alternate" route with practically zero commercial/civilian use.

Well, if the Khardung La and Saser La tunnels are built, this will become the main route, much shorter than the current one and one that the Chinese cannot threaten.

[k prasad]

I think we need to also focus on improved all-weather connectivity between Himachal and Ladakh. Currently, im not sure if NH505 is able to handle all-weather operations, but we need it to.

Plus, a faster all-weather connection on the Manali-Tso Moriri-Hanle-Demchok path. Currently, it looks like the route is snowed in, and avalanche prone. Plus, the Hanle to Demchok route goes through Photi la, which is quite a high pass and not yet paved (at least based on my OSINT dredging.

[vinod]

Any update on the severity of deployments on the Eastern side of India by both countries? All attention is on the ladakh region.

[NRao]

Hold-ups at ports will hit India, not China: Nitin Gadkari

[pankajs]

Posting after a long time....times are such.
One thing that has been bothering many of us in this forum is
A] Why did China choose this time to attack India...its not like its a post Covid reaction; we have posters posting proofs that the prep started last year Nov time frame itself.

B] What can India do; can it strike first ? If yes, then in what manner that it has a shock and awe, China remembers it and plays to our strength of keeping it short and sweet.

Answer to both the questions seems to be merging for me.
Lets start with [A]. IMO China did what it is doing cause we showed them that two Nuke powers can go to limited wars without crossing the Nuclear thresholds. What we did to Pakistan, in a way showed the way to China that India can be taught a lesson without going Nuclear.

And I think the solution to lies in breaking the basic assumption China built its invasion on. We go nuclear and we go nuclear in first strike but only tactical...i.e. we use sub kilo ton nukes to destroy their hardened positions.
These are my thoughts as to why it may work out for us:-
1] We jump the escalation ladder and bring in much needed S&A. We tell China and world that we will not get bullied and as a civilization; will not take things lying down.
2] In hilly terrain a tactical nuke may help remove hardened positions with much lesser sorties than a traditional attack may ---> will let gurus comment on this assumption.
3] We use tactical so we dare China to go full for a small escalation ...same mind game which Pakis wanted to play with us but couldnt bring themselves to do.
4] All the veterans will recall the Game Theory session we had for a nuclear war between Pakis and India...in which the Yak herder showed that a nuclear tango cannot be limited to two powers and will eventually involve all. The same will hold true now also; there will be all pressure from the powers to be on China to not go nuclear. Here I rely a lot on RaviB's psycho analysis wherein why will Chicoms get their mainland threatened for non Han Tibetans and also a full on Nuclear will also nullify whatever gr8 dreams they have had. India does have a nuclear triad and the ability to survive first strike.

Its a fight worth fighting for; do it all or keep getting smacked year after year , summer after summer. I think its a roll of dice worth trying for.

1. China did it not because we showed them ... they have been at it for many years now. This time they did a more blatant version of it probably because Modi did the unthinkable Doklam and made then backoff.

Therefore, they were wary if Modi after Doklam and came prepared with a major show of force at the border AND wanted to publicly put him down.

2. Little nuke games can turn into big nuke games very quickly. Better not think of that ladder for such a minor border incident.

Our defense forces are strong enough to balance things out. It is just that unlike more flamboyant Armies, IA & GOI are approaching this very cautiously. If need be, they can throw bodies at the problem at Pangang Tso and get it done for a price.

[rajpa]

So what options does modi have? Frankly I feel that he has done a solid job so far in terms of retaliation. Always out guessed everybody. One thing is for sure, he won't let this go unanswered, India will get it's pound of flesh, question is how and where? Here are some options:

Someone, I think Ldev, said that the Indian Navy should sink a plan vessel or two.... That's an idea. But the casualty count should be kept low which will be hard to do. Otherwise, there will be all out war, the Chinese will have no choice.

Others have suggested choking the Chinese in the straits. This is possible but not necessary at this point IMHO.

If it is naval op, I'd like to see them hit some docked vessels in Gwadar and do maximum damage to infrastructure with minimal body count. Make the tsp feel the pain as well.

Ideal hit would be to just gain more control over pok.. .. India has full rights to take this back and it would totally skewer cpec/obor. In the process totally dismantle any and everything Chinese in that place. In one fell swoop, we neuter both tsp and chicom. Neither galwan nor rest of lac matter so much (so long as they don't cross into India).

Do the hit and sue for peace. With due warning that any shenanigans from either side will be considered all out war and they can expect full scale response.

Frankly I think this is what Modiji will do. It will also give Cheen enough space to save face. Afterall, they can claim we didn't attack their territory. The only thing is, can we orient the forces in such a way that a strong defensive line is held everywhere else, while the brunt is brought to bear on POK?

Game over.

I like the PoK plan .. it is a great option. It is causus belli for the Chinese aggression. Stamping it out will be very satisfying.

[pankajs]

The Chini action and build up on LAC is quite on the grey area. In Pangong lake, they have blocked us from Finger 4 from the single file path near the lake, but the path through the height is open for us to outflank them.

Nobody is shooting, so they cannot do anything if we move in. They have tried to block direct path from the heights in to Finger 5.. but not after than. We could still land up on Finger 8 or even further..

Same on Galwan.

They definitely don't want us going in to war, as they are just about dipping their toe.. Unlike last time in Depsang, when they came all the way in..

Now they have got caught up in their own trap.. Now they cannot retreat until India stops the roads, nor can they retreat without a deal, nor get in to a war. At the same time they are loosing goodwill and trade.

1. There are ways going back to the passes further back BUT that is a long walk of ~50 km to the lake from the pass and the path down to the lake connects to the Chinese post opposite Gogra and would be full of traffic.

We could just push a bunch of men through or over the ridge and let the Chinese take the first shot and then take it to them, OR, we could soften them up with a first volley and launch a full scale invasion but all options will come at a price. Hence the political hands need to weight things carefully and take a call.

2. Galwan situation is not serious with their observation post just ~100m across the LAC and IA stationed ~100 meters back. We would take push them out when the political call is made.

[pankajs]

The Chini action and build up on LAC is quite on the grey area. In Pangong lake, they have blocked us from Finger 4 from the single file path near the lake, but the path through the height is open for us to outflank them.

Nobody is shooting, so they cannot do anything if we move in. They have tried to block direct path from the heights in to Finger 5.. but not after than. We could still land up on Finger 8 or even further..

Same on Galwan.

They definitely don't want us going in to war, as they are just about dipping their toe.. Unlike last time in Depsang, when they came all the way in..

Now they have got caught up in their own trap.. Now they cannot retreat until India stops the roads, nor can they retreat without a deal, nor get in to a war. At the same time they are loosing goodwill and trade.

It is technically going behind enemy lines. So if they somehow bypass the Chinese and teach F8 and then Chinese block return path - then wudnt our soldiers be in "Chinese custody" ?? Imagine what will happen on our prime-time news channels.

IFF IA where to send soldiers on such a mission it would be to blast their way through the enemy line and to clear it or be killed as part of a multi-pronged operations.

[pankajs]

So what options does modi have? Frankly I feel that he has done a solid job so far in terms of retaliation. Always out guessed everybody. One thing is for sure, he won't let this go unanswered, India will get it's pound of flesh, question is how and where? Here are some options:

Someone, I think Ldev, said that the Indian Navy should sink a plan vessel or two.... That's an idea. But the casualty count should be kept low which will be hard to do. Otherwise, there will be all out war, the Chinese will have no choice.

Others have suggested choking the Chinese in the straits. This is possible but not necessary at this point IMHO.

If it is naval op, I'd like to see them hit some docked vessels in Gwadar and do maximum damage to infrastructure with minimal body count. Make the tsp feel the pain as well.

Ideal hit would be to just gain more control over pok.. .. India has full rights to take this back and it would totally skewer cpec/obor. In the process totally dismantle any and everything Chinese in that place. In one fell swoop, we neuter both tsp and chicom. Neither galwan nor rest of lac matter so much (so long as they don't cross into India).

Do the hit and sue for peace. With due warning that any shenanigans from either side will be considered all out war and they can expect full scale response.

Frankly I think this is what Modiji will do. It will also give Cheen enough space to save face. Afterall, they can claim we didn't attack their territory. The only thing is, can we orient the forces in such a way that a strong defensive line is held everywhere else, while the brunt is brought to bear on POK?

Game over.

POK would be fantastic but it and any navy ops would be escalator for our current predicament. Mostly likely response to a small incursion would be a small operation in/around the same area.

[pankajs]

Anyone have a good explanation for China's desire to change the status quo? Why on earth did they start this. Their official claim is the road and base next to Aksai Chin. Is this the entire story. Is this some kind of message to show power and scare India from trying to reclaim Aksai Chin?

China has a particular conception of the Indo-China border and it is going about it in a systematic manner whenever the opportunity arises.

Their main goal is to re-draw the the boundary to their liking and present it as a done deal. The rest of things count but boundary alignment is primary driver.

[Jarita]

Hold-ups at ports will hit India, not China: Nitin Gadkari

This fellow never loses a moment to subtlety denigrate the government or give unnecessary road contracts to his groupies.

[Rishirishi]

Their main goal is to re-draw the the boundary to their liking and present it as a done deal. The rest of things count but boundary alignment is primary driver.

Are they pushing for LAC to be made the border? If that is the case, it might not be such a bad option. Has something like that been on the table before? And is India building posts up to the LAC?

[Y I Patel]

I thought the game changing bridge was named after Col Chewang Rinchen (MVC with Bar) because of his exploits in 1971 that led to the capture of Turtuk... but there is so much more to this legend... would not be an understatement to call him the savior of Ladakh

Read about the exploits of the Tiger of Nubra in Aksai Chin:
* before 1962 discovered the Tienwendian Fort near DBO
* used existing local materials (read more below) to mark out DBO airstrip
* patrolled the are now marked by Patrol Points 10-13 (also there's a Jiwan Peak named after an NCO who accompanied him, so probably related to Jiwan Nalla
* Crossed Saser La in record time in 1965 and was responsible for defending DBO against Chinese (note importance of that route in the days when the area had to be accessed on foot


Claude Arpi on Col Rinchen's legendary exploits in Aksai Chin

BTW read another article that he even fought against Paki raiders in 1948!