India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 02 Jul 2020 11:45

Mode Note: NO more discussions about F-35 here. It is not pertinent to this thread. VikramS, you will get a warning for ignoring my previous post about this.

Rest of you, stop replying or you will receive warnings too. We need to increase the signal-to-noise ratio here, not reduce it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 11:52

----POST DELETED----
Last edited by Rakesh on 02 Jul 2020 18:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Refer to Mod Note Above

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 11:55

pankajs wrote:There are images galore identifying the Chinese position on the Chinese side of the Galwan valley and at Pangang Tso.

Have you seen any comparable OSINT on Depsang? AND why not?

That is what my point is - lots of pictures and discussions on every inch of land in Galwan and Pangong - and the Indian army has done a massive buildup in Laddakh against an enemy which is not visible on maps and discussions like it is in Galwan and Pangong. So let's assume even if Chinese move back couple of kms in Pangong and even Galwan - then will that 'invisible' threat to our north just dissipate ??

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Pashupatastra » 02 Jul 2020 11:57

---POST DELETED----

And banned for one month for trolling
Last edited by Rakesh on 02 Jul 2020 18:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 12:01

Some rambling thoughts, by no means conclusive. It just reflects my dilemma...

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Let's put aside emotion. What are we fighting for? Can we articulate this in cold numbers and logic?

That is going to form the kernel of the argument of why we're need to fight China. What is the damage we can take and what damage we need to do.

The only real reason is water, but the chinese so far have not acted on that threat, though they control pretty much all the water sources into the sub-continent. So till they take some public steps on this, it would be hard to build a case and mould public opinion.

Tibet by itself is not a strong reason for us to dig in and fight a sustained conflict with China - only in strategic and our kind of circles does that have some currency. Liberating Tibet is no means a joke, if not impossible, and if we were to ever attempt that, public opinion needs to be baying for it. But as of now, the average person, while definitely sympathetic, is not that motivated to fight China for Tibet's sake.

Given that reality, what kind of vision should we articulate to back our moves and take the initiative? Freedom? Self-respect? Vasudaiva kutumbakam? (definitely not!) Equality of the global commons? Dharma?

Maybe the last one - but we have to get over our woolly ideas like vasudaiva kutumbakam and equality of global commons. These are not self defining notions that can rally a country around it. Dharma can do it, but then we need to publicly bring out the adharmic aspects of chinese power, while clearly articulating our national goal as preserving dharma. I too am not clear about it being a viable strategy, and I suspect our establishment has the same dilemma - how do we see ourselves and use that vision to achieve our goals, whatever it takes? China is not obliging us by firing the first shot, and we can't keep playing the defensive game forever - for it suits them just fine.

If my post sounds confused, it's because I actually am, hence shared my thoughts hoping some gurus can give some pointers to refine them further.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dilbu » 02 Jul 2020 12:14

China deploys two more divisions of troops across LAC
New Delhi: Even as Indian and Chinese militaries talk to de-escalate and disengage at borders in eastern Ladakh, Indian intelligence agencies said on Wednesday that Chinese People's Liberation Army has brought in troops of two more divisions across Line of Actual Control at disputed areas.

"In total, China has deployed around 24,000 soldiers more in Eastern Ladakh region," said sources, adding that a division comprises of 12,000 soldiers. Sources further stated that the Chinese forces have also brought in heavy guns, tanks and fighter aircraft across the Line of Actual Control in a bid to aggravate the border situation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nishant.gupta » 02 Jul 2020 12:17

arshyam wrote:snip

The only real reason is water, but the chinese so far have not acted on that threat, though they control pretty much all the water sources into the sub-continent. So till they take some public steps on this, it would be hard to build a case and mould public opinion.

snip


While water seems a genuine reason, do they really need water for own use? Tibet is too far from there plains and it will possibly be easier to get water from the sea for their empire.

Water stoppage will purely be an offensive act which will immediately result in every country opposing China and supporting India. It will also give an immediate reason to India for attacking. They will have to in that case for pure survival.

Just my two cents.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rkirankr » 02 Jul 2020 12:27

Question to gurus. In winter , when it starts snowing , will there be snow in Depsang? If yes, how good will be the tanks?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Ashokk » 02 Jul 2020 12:28

Germany, US block China’s anti-India move at UNSC
NEW DELHI: China is livid after the US stepped in on Wednesday evening to delay a draft press statement condemning the terrorist attack at the Karachi Stock Exchange at the UN Security Council.
The US was the second country after Germany to delay the statement, both silent expressions of solidarity with New Delhi, after the Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and later PM Imran Khan blamed India for the attack.
The press statement, drafted by China, in addition to expressing condolence and solidarity with Pakistan government, said, “The members of the Security Council underlined the need to bring perpetrators, organisers, financiers and sponsors of these reprehensible acts of terrorism to justice and urged all States, in accordance with their obligations under international law and relevant Security Council resolutions, to cooperate actively with the Government of Pakistan and all other relevant authorities in this regard.”
China introduced the statement on Tuesday, and under a UNSC procedure, put it under “silence” until 4 pm New York time. The statement is a routine condemnation of a terror attack that is issued often by the UNSC. Under the silence procedure, if there is no objection until the deadline, it is deemed to be passed.
But Germany stepped in at 4 pm to put a delay in issuing the statement. Diplomats said Pakistan foreign minister, S M Qureshi’s statement blaming India for the attack was deemed unacceptable. The Chinese UN delegation protested vehemently, saying the clock had actually moved past 4 pm when Germany intervened. The deadline was extended until 10 am July 1.
But as the new hour approached, the US intervened also at the last moment, to stymie the issuance, calling for yet another delay.

Diplomats said the statement may finally get issued, but pushing back against China and Pakistan in the UNSC is being seen as a larger signal of global displeasure.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 12:35

SSridhar wrote:S-400s are mobile and their positioning does not convey who a bigger threat is over a longer period of time, because the positioning is tactical. It has always been clear to the Indian establishment that China was the biggest threat; that was our justification too for 1998.

Deployment of S400 is also dictated by geographical factors. It's trump card is its long range radar - which will have natural blind spots in Tibet if deployed in plains in India. More S400 on Paki side will free up our fighters from AD roles. If IAF deploys S400 on Paki side and then reduces it's fighters allocated for AD then IAF is confident that PAF neither has sophistication nor the technology to mount any serious 'air-raids' and S400's are enough to shut that door for them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 12:39

Rs_singh wrote:The one flaw in my argument will be when they start running a join mil ex. That can happen overnight.
Did you mean "can" or "can't"? If they can start a joint offensive action overnight, then our calculus has to change.

Rs_singh wrote:If i was them, I would cut south of Siachen, isolating SRs to the north and forcing us to fight defensive to prevent further southward ingress Into own while cutting off our boys to the north.

Yes - along the Shyok river valley via Turtuk and Thoise. But we are well entrenched in this sector to prevent exactly this, so cutting off Siachen itself is a tall order.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 12:42

We need to be wary of PLARF - not because they have any capability of moulding any outcome - but because of their capability to be a nuisance and scare factor. Launching 1 BM every 30 mins or 40 mins on an air-field that has suffered major damage in an air-raid will cause enough harrassment for repair crews that they will not be able to bring back ops compared to say if air-raids were launched against them every 4-5 hours. On the civilian side - seeing a refinery burn on the edge of a city is a huge scare factor. We got to be cognizant if these factors.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 12:49

Larry Walker wrote:We need to be wary of PLARF - not because they have any capability of moulding any outcome - but because of their capability to be a nuisance and scare factor. Launching 1 BM every 30 mins or 40 mins on an air-field that has suffered major damage in an air-raid will cause enough harrassment for repair crews that they will not be able to bring back ops compared to say if air-raids were launched against them every 4-5 hours. On the civilian side - seeing a refinery burn on the edge of a city is a huge scare factor. We got to be cognizant if these factors.

Again,

1. BM needs to have pin-point accuracy for a single strike takedown of an airfield. I highly doubt that.

2. Targeting Refineries etc would mean we are near total war scenario. Highly unlikely during a border skirmish.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mahadevbhu » 02 Jul 2020 12:58

It does seem like the chinese want to teach us a lesson. Somehow it seems like it will backfire on them. I wonder how it can be reengineered to bring down the CPC and foment a revolution in China?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 12:58

pankajs wrote:Again,

1. BM needs to have pin-point accuracy for a single strike takedown of an airfield. I highly doubt that.

2. Targeting Refineries etc would mean we are near total war scenario. Highly unlikely during a border skirmish.


Pls re-read - BM's cannot take down airfleids - for that an air-raid has to be mounted - I am referring to the fact that once an air-raid has hit an air-field - BM's launched at it at it in quick intervals will cause the repair activities to cease as each time the sirens blare - the crew has to run for shelter and wait for all-clear.
Also - given the nature of our cities in north - most of them have a 'cantt' area inside it or near it - and those could be legitimate military targets.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Jul 2020 13:02

Sonugn wrote:Away from sight, how China developed key infrastructure along Arunachal Pradesh
Scrutiny of open-source satellite images from Google Earth and other platforms show that China has been surreptitiously strengthening its infrastructure in and around Nyingchi, a military town in the Tibet region where it has stationed two large combined arms brigades.


A British-era cross-shaped helipad in the town has now been upgraded.

This also signifies that the area was controlled and administered by British India and is now occupied by China.

Was not able to find this, but going by what I have seen on maps, the Chinese have built up 5-8km into our side in most sectors in AP (mostly under the radar).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 13:08

Larry Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Again,

1. BM needs to have pin-point accuracy for a single strike takedown of an airfield. I highly doubt that.

2. Targeting Refineries etc would mean we are near total war scenario. Highly unlikely during a border skirmish.


Pls re-read - BM's cannot take down airfleids - for that an air-raid has to be mounted - I am referring to the fact that once an air-raid has hit an air-field - BM's launched at it at it in quick intervals will cause the repair activities to cease as each time the sirens blare - the crew has to run for shelter and wait for all-clear.
Also - given the nature of our cities in north - most of them have a 'cantt' area inside it or near it - and those could be legitimate military targets.

BM's CAN take down airfields BUT it will have to be a volley because of CEP issues.

Back to the highlight, crews are trained to operate under adverse conditions. Unless it is raining bombs they will be out and about their repair work.

Cantt area in and around cities being targeted would mean we are nearing an all out war situation rather than a localized battle.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Larry Walker » 02 Jul 2020 13:11

This is what my fear is - there is a strong lobby that is trying its best to keep our focus on Galwan/Pangong area and no mention of massive Chinese buildup in north and neither the Chinese deep intrusions in AP. I sincerely hope that after taking few km's in Galwan and Pangong GoI does not declare victory. That will make a mockery of our country and will reinforce Chinese perception that we are a weak country and always interested in some kind of victory on TV sets. If I remember the sequence of events correctly - all the focus was on Pangong - which as military experts have said again and again that does not offer not even tactical advantage to PLA. Also there was no focus on Galwan until night of 15th June. All noise was around Pangong. And we know that Chinese combat buildup had already started in Ladakh sector by April and they had already cut our access beyond the Y-junction by then.
So when Gokhale keeps harping about talks of pullback in Pangong - I smell conspiracy and he is part of same cabal that wants to declare phonic victory.
Last edited by Larry Walker on 02 Jul 2020 13:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 13:11

Pashupatastra wrote:Sir , nobody in his right mind would use the forum for trolling. However , there is a difference in perspective on the handling of current crisis. While some in the forum can see strategy and logic in Indian government's response , others like me feel that we are losing out on a opportunity to make a statement through offensive action falling to the guiles of Chinese.

I refer the following piece by Claude Arpi to substantiate my point.
http://claudearpi.blogspot.com/2020/06/ ... e-new.html

The following was the response from then Indian PM Nehru to the encroachment of Chinese in Laddakh -

"A correspondent dared point out that according to the latest Indian protest note the situation was serious, and the PM agreed. “Yes. They are pitched in a high key. Anyhow, so far as I know, nothing has happened, no conflict has occurred,” he said, adding: “Some time or the other the [Chinese] will have to [end the encirclement].”

"Two days later, before leaving for Bengaluru, Nehru again told the press: “While there was a risk of a clash between Indian and Chinese forces at Galwan post in Ladakh, I don’t think there will be any major clash.” He then added: “They accuse us and we accuse them. It’s very difficult to say what will happen… There is a risk of a clash, but not a major one.”
The MEA annual report explained India’s position: “In July 1962 Chinese troops encircled an Indian post in the Galwan Valley, [the Indian government has] indicated their willingness to enter into discussions on the India-China boundary question… as soon as the tensions have eased and a suitable climate for talks and discussions is created”. The Chinese troops eventually withdrew from the area.
This background appears interesting as one looks at the present situation in Ladakh, where PLA troops are facing the Indian troops in a similar manner."

I feel the current government is falling to the same stratagem of resorting to talks with an enemy whose only objective is to deprive India of it's territory and humiliate to cut to size. I believe that an offensive action would have been more effective in communicating the resolve of Indians rather than 10-12 hour meetings between military generals. We have the capability but need the political will to take combat to the enemy. The world would flock to India if they can see that India has gone on offensive.

Talks don't mean no offensive or no political will.

India is matching Chinese deployment and PM's message was very clear that every inch will be vacated or something to that effect.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 13:12

LakshmanPST wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:We have the analysis of the China-India conflict from a Chinese perspective, right here, it has been posted before on BRF.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/china ... akh-clash/



Reading this article and few other posts written in this thread, one analogy I can give for China is---> If we consider CCP ruled China as person, then China is a Narcissist...

Excellent post, Lakshman ji. I'm surprised by how much overlap there is, even though I hesitate to accept that countries could have personalities.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 13:18

I have been thinking about the two-front threat from the baki PoV, and I am skeptical about them actually doing something in concert with the Chinese.. Why? Simple self-preservation, that's all:

1. It is in baki interest to provide "moral" support to china while building up, as they are vassals. Hence the recent reports (if true) about amassing troops in Gilgit-Baltistan.
2. It is in baki interest to see us get a bloody nose, so they will do all they can to provoke a fight between China and India and appear to be supportive of China so they can get whatever largesse the Chinese can give them.
3. It is in paki interest to keep stirring the pot w.r.t. terrorism as it is a low cost way to keep us tied down and we have shown little appetite for escalation. So they'll fall back on this tried and tested strategy.
4. It's in paki interest to attack us when we are down after a conflict with China, so we won't be able to retaliate much. But till that point, they'll try to not commit to any overt action on the ground.

5. But it is NOT in baki interest to actually attack us - their economic situation is pretty shaky already and would only become worse.
6. It is also NOT in baki interest to provoke us to fire at them - unlike the Chinese, baki propaganda is restricted to their aam abdul, and their military knows exactly what we are capable of, having borne the brunt of our retaliation in the past.
7. They know that nothing stops us from repeating LBS' strategy in '65 and put pressure on Lahore itself, or even worse, cut off the RYK axis.
8. They also know that in the current circumstances, we'll use the opportunity to actually do something about GB instead of simply talking about taking it back.
9. Unlike the PLA, the pak army has seen action over years, even if at the receiving end. But it is enough to not delude themselves into a fight they cannot win.
10. More on the economic aspect: It is not in baki interest to attack India as their economy is in shambles and they are dependent on the IMF spigot. They cannot rely on the Chinese spigot because the latter itself in on shaky ground due to setbacks from Trump's trade actions, Wuhan virus, BRI going nowhere, etc.
11. India's recent diplomacy to isolate them economically has put them under greater pressure than ever - the FATF is still a hanging threat, so they really have only two choices for money: IMF and China. They will go with whoever can assure them sustained funding to stay afloat, and that is the IMF.
12. One can argue that their army need not care about their economy as the civilian leadership has to deal with that. However, without a functioning economy that has a dollar reserve, the army is not going to get any moolah, nor can they actually take over the govt without inviting more automatic sanctions from the US. So they will let the civilian govt continue in name, but also be cognizant of economic issues to the extent that their funding is assured.
13. There is little gear that they make themselves, so they'll continue to need the dollars to import their weapons.

Of course, the pakis may be pressured to go kinetic by the chinese if they themselves start fighting us, but the they would do their best not to provoke us into an attack on their heartland. So while there have been some unconfirmed reports about PLAAF being deployed to paki bases, they'd prefer to stay out of hostilities till they can see which side is winning.

Lastly, they have seen Modi has not shied away from thinking unconventionally, and are not sure what he is capable of if things light up. I don't think they'll want to try and see.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2020 13:30

abhik wrote:


A British-era cross-shaped helipad in the town has now been upgraded.

This also signifies that the area was controlled and administered by British India and is now occupied by China.

Was not able to find this, but going by what I have seen on maps, the Chinese have built up 5-8km into our side in most sectors in AP (mostly under the radar).


Nyingchi Manling Airport is a good 14 Km away from hill top border, all these constructions are north of the Mchmohan line, Can you let us know coordinates of locations where you feel the Chinese have built 5-8km in Arunachal Pradesh

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 13:34

Pashupatastra wrote:I feel the current government is falling to the same stratagem of resorting to talks with an enemy whose only objective is to deprive India of it's territory and humiliate to cut to size.
Did Nehru actually build infrastructure to support forward logistics?
Did Nehru actually ensure the Army and ITBP deployed in strength in advance of any hostilities?
Did Nehru actually ensure the Army and ITBP have the necessary gear and resources to stay deployed in the forward areas?
Did Nehru go around giving sound bytes about the issue to anyone and everyone?

Now - please answer these questions based on Modi's actions - if you still justify your post, it's only sustained trolling, plain and simple. Seems like your time is better spent reading up about how the '62 conflict came about before handing out such "feeling" based analysis.

Pashupatastra wrote:We have the capability but need the political will to take combat to the enemy.
Serious question: what would be the objective?

Pashupatastra wrote:The world would flock to India if they can see that India has gone on offensive.
Is this what Nehru thought? Is it what Modi is thinking today? Clearly, it's what you are, but without any justification, it is just hand-waving. So can we see some?

If you don't mind my saying, kindly drop the "equal-equal" line, and focus on these last two points. They are more relevant in the current scenario and can actually lead to some useful discussions. JMT and all that.

[Edited for grammar]
Last edited by arshyam on 02 Jul 2020 13:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 13:41

KL Dubey wrote:
chola wrote:
1) The idea that Cheen expects anyone, especially India, to act like a vassal is poor intelligence at worst or naive at best. Whom have they gotten to act like a vassal to them? Vietnam? Taiwan? Oz? NOBODY bows down to them. Why would they expect thus of India? They don't. Which brings up the next point,

2) the reason they militarized the SCS is because no one listened to them. If Vietnam backed off. If the Philippines didn't take them to international court. They might have enjoyed de facto control of the SCS without the expense of creating entire islands and creating an opening for the US to intervene,

3) This brings us to the third point. They know we won't back down. They also know since Doklam that we would counteract them with force if necessary. But because of Doklam, the chinis also no longer believe they can make do with a skeleton (but budget-friendly) force in Tibet. This buildup today is analogous to the SCS when they understood that their opponents won't listen and they needed to come in force to bully. To create fait accompli on the ground.

Modi is probably right that they did not "invade" India but they took the gray areas and will take more because just like the seas, the mountains are not natural human habitats and you need machines to support you there. They will always go back their strengths which are infrastructure, industry and logistics. Those are what makes them a power. They can't fight for sh1t and they know it and had stay away from fighting for decades on end.

We can either play to their strength or to ours.



^^^Amidst all the noise and speculations, the above post by "Chola" is excellent and I would like to quote his entire post.

However, I believe his point #3 above needs further discussion.

Nobody plans for expensive "diversions" or "to teach country a lesson" just by deploying forces and keeping them basically idle. Those who believe that the Chinese "assumed we won't retaliate" are naive. They are surely bullyish and obnoxious, but not stupid to that extreme.

After several weeks I am coming around to believe that the Chinese are basically worried about (specifically in the Indian context):

(A) Their decades of investment in Pak/CPEC etc becoming worthless. I.e., they are worried that India was/is planning to retake POK and GB. We are quickly consolidating in J&K with terrorism being razed to the ground one district at a time. POK return has now been officially declared as the only potential dialogue topic with Pak. And with Ladakh now directly controlled by the Union, it is a clear statement that these areas are permanently ours and can be used for staging thrusts into GB and POK.

(B) The rapid pace of infrastructure build all along the border on our side in recent years.

In terms of our response:

(A) Military Counter: right now we appear to be in a defensive "holding mode" deployment. I am sure pushing the Chinese off a few sq km at Pangong, Depsang, and Galwan is not difficult if the order is given. I agree the PLA is a paper tiger and does not intend to fight. But it is worth taking the time to understand the bigger picture. At the same time border infrastructure is progressing quickly. As a citizen I feel this strategy is "Very Good" for now.

(B) Economic Counter: As "Suraj" mentions, we have a whole range of options to screw the Chinese. Seems like we using them one at a time in a graded manner. So far I would rate the progress on this as "Good".

(C) Diplomacy: So far, other democratic countries have been quite helpful and this cooperative spirit seems to be intensifying. Forget the loads of BS on foreign media/social media...these people don't matter two hoots. Overall I rate this aspect as "Excellent".

(D) Industrial Build (including MIC): It's a golden opportunity to invest in our manufacturing including MIC. Understandably the first weeks have concentrated on ensuring supplies for our imported defense equipment and expediting current orders. Rather than chest-beating on the last 50 years of "import is best" policies, let's look to the future constructively. Some indigenization and import substitution has been pursued but we would all like to see a lot more on that front. A lot more can and must be done. On BRF we can only analyze based upon public reports. So far I view the documented progress on this as "Fair".

Good points, both of you. If I may, I'd like to add one more:

(E) Narrative: It is important we frame our response in a cohesive narrative, so we know what we are fighting for. While I don't have answer for what this narrative should be - I had posted about my dilemma earlier, and it is easier if china fires the first shot making it a "fight for the homeland" issue - we should consider a national vision and narrative as an important aspect of our response. So far, we haven't done well on this aspect.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 13:52

ldev wrote:
pankajs wrote:1. The bottomline is that we cannot sustain a rocket force vs rocket force kind of play with China at the present. Our best bet it to beat them at the border and either push them out from our area or capture some of theirs for an exchange.

India today does not have the kind of long range precision strike weapons needed to target China where it hurts. Because until this present crisis was thrust on it 75% of India's defence efforts focused on Pakistan. So yes as of today that kind of a war is a non starter with China. But imagine this. Pakistan's breadth is 400km-450km at most points from Kashmir to Karachi. Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi are all less than 200 km from the Indian border, Lahore is less than 30 km. So India's strike weapons are calibrated to reach these Pakistani targets. However against China which has now emerged as India's principal threat the closest Chinese cities are 2000km-2500km away. Fighting China with India's existing non-nuclear missiles and aircraft is like fighting Pakistan with artillery with a range of 40 km. If that 40 km ranged artillery was the maximum range that India could strike into Pakistan, how deterred would Pakistan be? And even within a 40 km range of the Indian border, Pakistan has assets to lose including the city of Lahore. Against China there is nothing within 300 km of the Indian border except the Tibet plateau with very little population which in any case is Tibetan so China does not care if any of them die. So yes as of today India does not have that long range strike capability. But if it wants to confront China and deter China, there is no other option but to get it pronto.
<snip>
.


This is not true at all. While certainly not as easily covered as Pakistan, China has several major targets in the range of ~1000 km. Chengdu is around 900km from Dibrugarh, Chongqing (also written Chungking) is I think around 1100 km. Chengdu is a major military centre. Chongqing was developed as a city precisely as part of the third line of defence (IIRC), a city not too close to the sea that would serve as a military centre. Administratively, it has the same status as Beijing and Shanghai and has a population of 30 million. These are both perfect counterforce targets. There's also Kunming which is even closer but that would only be relevant as a countervalue target.

India has a highly redundant capability to hit these targets.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rkirankr » 02 Jul 2020 13:57

I believe the establishment is doing the right thing waiting while matching cheeni build up for build up. It helps, in getting extra weapons, acclimatization of more troops, ensuring repairs of our existing assets done. Remember 71 war, when as per some of the stories I have , PM IG wanted to go to war in Mar and but the COAS asked her to wait. They got their assets in place and went in. Ofcourse china is no Pakistan.
We have to get our assets in place. Some one was drawing parallels to 62. I think 15 June incident put the scare in them.
This is a good time for Indian industry to ramp up and reduce dependence on china. Remember for us sitting there and finally ensuring china goes two steps back is victory. For them it is not. They will lose their face as per their thinking.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 13:58

RaviB wrote:
ldev wrote:India today does not have the kind of long range precision strike weapons needed to target China where it hurts. Because until this present crisis was thrust on it 75% of India's defence efforts focused on Pakistan. So yes as of today that kind of a war is a non starter with China. But imagine this. Pakistan's breadth is 400km-450km at most points from Kashmir to Karachi. Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi are all less than 200 km from the Indian border, Lahore is less than 30 km. So India's strike weapons are calibrated to reach these Pakistani targets. However against China which has now emerged as India's principal threat the closest Chinese cities are 2000km-2500km away. Fighting China with India's existing non-nuclear missiles and aircraft is like fighting Pakistan with artillery with a range of 40 km. If that 40 km ranged artillery was the maximum range that India could strike into Pakistan, how deterred would Pakistan be? And even within a 40 km range of the Indian border, Pakistan has assets to lose including the city of Lahore. Against China there is nothing within 300 km of the Indian border except the Tibet plateau with very little population which in any case is Tibetan so China does not care if any of them die. So yes as of today India does not have that long range strike capability. But if it wants to confront China and deter China, there is no other option but to get it pronto.
<snip>
.


This is not true at all. While certainly not as easily covered as Pakistan, China has several major targets in the range of ~1000 km. Chengdu is around 900km from Dibrugarh, Chongqing (also written Chungking) is I think around 1100 km. Chengdu is a major military centre. Chongqing was developed as a city precisely as part of the third line of defence (IIRC), a city not too close to the sea that would serve as a military centre. Administratively, it has the same status as Beijing and Shanghai and has a population of 30 million. These are both perfect counterforce targets. There's also Kunming which is even closer but that would only be relevant as a countervalue target.

India has a highly redundant capability to hit these targets.
True!

Only yesterdin I had marked both these cities on my Google Earth install after hearing that Chengdu is the headquarters of Western Theater command. ... only I did not make the next leap. Sometime one tends to miss the obvious.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 02 Jul 2020 14:22

Pashupatastra wrote:The current situation eerily mirrors the events in 1962. In 1962 it started with Galwan in July and erupted all across the border in October. The then Indian government did not take the encirclement at Galwan seriously and falsely believed that Chinese would fold up if given a show of strength. However , the unprepared government received a huge shock when China attacked the unprepared Indian forces in October.

If we do a comparison of temperament , then Modi = VK Krishna Menon ; Rajnath = Nehru ; Doval = BN Mullick. Hope the current government is not buying into the Chinese bluff yet again and take the initiative to evict them soon.


This is disgusting! You are doing nothing but spread panic and FUD.

I have reported this post.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 02 Jul 2020 14:24

Aditya_V wrote:
abhik wrote:

Was not able to find this, but going by what I have seen on maps, the Chinese have built up 5-8km into our side in most sectors in AP (mostly under the radar).


Nyingchi Manling Airport is a good 14 Km away from hill top border, all these constructions are north of the Mchmohan line, Can you let us know coordinates of locations where you feel the Chinese have built 5-8km in Arunachal Pradesh


I'm basing this on different open mapping platforms (google etc.), which has the downside of the border/LAC itself not being well defined - for example google's like is usually a few Km's south of what Bing and others show. Of course we should be comparing it with GOI official maps (rather than foreign providers), but I haven't found one detailed enough yet.

Re. Nyingchi, by following the road south, the chinese have built an outpost here @29.0316385,94.241967 and have built roads in the entire valley, as per google it is chinese area, but as per others it is 3-5 Km on our side.

Hers's an earlier post of mine in another area, both services agree its on the Indian side, just not on how much https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&p=2440439#p2440452

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nishant.gupta » 02 Jul 2020 14:26

I have a thought process which I wanted to share here. Pure assumption based with some facts.

Fact:
    India has never been an aggressor. We (all of us from left to right) take immense pride in this fact as well and consider this for some reason to be a matter of prestige or something.
    India has a history of being reactive rather than being proactive. Even in the current situation, all our actions suggest that we continue to be that. We are increasing forces only when the Chinese are doing the same. We are giving them all time for talks. We are taking small actions on the economic front as signals to China to back off but next action is happening only after checking response on first one.
    Pakistan is a vassal state of China. They are too deep into it to decide anything for themselves. If promised a couple of billion, they will probably sell the country to China and go sit in a raft in Arabian Sea.
    China has a history of creating a situation in one place and then acting in a completely different place. (Even Modiji has the same history but his is purely political)
    As some previous posts pointed out, China reacts to international issues by being aggressive and usually comes out better with more land.

So where am I taking this?

A glance on the map and entire border of China and India (everyone knows this I guess), we have three borders with China. One which goes is in Ladakh all the way to Nepal border in which the issue is going on, second in Sikkim and third in AP.

While Ladakh is the first finger in the overall plans of China, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim & AP are the remaining 4 fingers.

Sikkim in my opinion at present gives the most strategic advantage to China. Ladakh is good to show but it does practically nothing for China. They already have connection to Pakistan and if India wanted to take GB, not having Ladakh will not stop them. AP is the same and even lesser in value compared to Ladakh for now. Sikkim on the other hand literally gives them a way to cut off India into two at any time. This will make it far easier to take AP and maybe the whole NE in the future whenever they want. A highway via Sikkim (or AP) to Bay of Bengal becomes a high possibility which makes a lot more economic sense for them compared to CPEC which is risky due to the thousand Paki issues and they know that.

Is it possible that the intention is to keep all media, attention, talks etc etc engaged in Ladakh while preparing for a short swift strike in Sikkim and occupying land there? By the time IA can mobilize, strike is over and they go into defensive positions which is more tenable. Some more points which can work in their favor:

    Doklam three years back could have simply been an information gathering exercise to get a feel of forces on ground. The short fist fight in beginning of May this year could be the same.
    With forces currently at LAC, they have a well laid out highway to move things any time they want by road if needed. It will take 24 hours from Pangong Tso. For IA to do similar redeployment, it will take 2.5 days via Delhi - roads which are bad and used by public.
    A relatively small number of well targeted missiles can take out the current IA in Sikkim and losses for Chinese can be minimized.
    They can assume safely (due to history) that India does not go offensive and the Pakistani deployment which has already happened will make sure that IA has to be wary of moving troops away from Northern borders.
    War could be over by the time GoI and Indian fauj can ever realize.

They will not only be shown to be super powerful back home as well as define terms at the border but they will have got a huge strategic advantage against India for future.....

Am I making sense? Or is the reason for browning my dhoti only because of overindulgence in Biryani?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nishant.gupta » 02 Jul 2020 14:31

^^^ Forgot to add. If the border "talks" succeed and Chinese do pull back, they will actually have a reason for troops amassing close to Sikkim border since that is where they can say they are passing through....at least for a couple of days in which time, any hostilities may be started.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dilbu » 02 Jul 2020 14:33

rkirankr wrote:https://twitter.com/AnkushDey_/status/1278588088252370945/photo/1 .. Interesting

What else would they say? I will grudgingly admit that ISPR is good at what they do, which most of the time means lying through its teeth.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mahadevbhu » 02 Jul 2020 14:39

RaviB wrote:
ldev wrote:India today does not have the kind of long range precision strike weapons needed to target China where it hurts. Because until this present crisis was thrust on it 75% of India's defence efforts focused on Pakistan. So yes as of today that kind of a war is a non starter with China. But imagine this. Pakistan's breadth is 400km-450km at most points from Kashmir to Karachi. Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi are all less than 200 km from the Indian border, Lahore is less than 30 km. So India's strike weapons are calibrated to reach these Pakistani targets. However against China which has now emerged as India's principal threat the closest Chinese cities are 2000km-2500km away. Fighting China with India's existing non-nuclear missiles and aircraft is like fighting Pakistan with artillery with a range of 40 km. If that 40 km ranged artillery was the maximum range that India could strike into Pakistan, how deterred would Pakistan be? And even within a 40 km range of the Indian border, Pakistan has assets to lose including the city of Lahore. Against China there is nothing within 300 km of the Indian border except the Tibet plateau with very little population which in any case is Tibetan so China does not care if any of them die. So yes as of today India does not have that long range strike capability. But if it wants to confront China and deter China, there is no other option but to get it pronto.
<snip>
.


This is not true at all. While certainly not as easily covered as Pakistan, China has several major targets in the range of ~1000 km. Chengdu is around 900km from Dibrugarh, Chongqing (also written Chungking) is I think around 1100 km. Chengdu is a major military centre. Chongqing was developed as a city precisely as part of the third line of defence (IIRC), a city not too close to the sea that would serve as a military centre. Administratively, it has the same status as Beijing and Shanghai and has a population of 30 million. These are both perfect counterforce targets. There's also Kunming which is even closer but that would only be relevant as a countervalue target.

India has a highly redundant capability to hit these targets.


Guys all the ranges of our missiles are curtailed for public consumption and to espouse a defensive posture. The ranges of all missiles from prithvi onwards are multiple times what is publicly proclaimed. Brahmos is tomahawk like range wise. No need to worry about even conventional responses. We don't have any problems in responding correctly. What we do have a problem in is winning the war. We can possibly win the engagement locally..but winning a war is impossible.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 02 Jul 2020 14:48

nishant.gupta wrote:I have a thought process which I wanted to share here. Pure assumption based with some facts.

Fact:
    India has never been an aggressor. We (all of us from left to right) take immense pride in this fact as well and consider this for some reason to be a matter of prestige or something.
    India has a history of being reactive rather than being proactive. Even in the current situation, all our actions suggest that we continue to be that. We are increasing forces only when the Chinese are doing the same. We are giving them all time for talks. We are taking small actions on the economic front as signals to China to back off but next action is happening only after checking response on first one.
    Pakistan is a vassal state of China. They are too deep into it to decide anything for themselves. If promised a couple of billion, they will probably sell the country to China and go sit in a raft in Arabian Sea.
    China has a history of creating a situation in one place and then acting in a completely different place. (Even Modiji has the same history but his is purely political)
    As some previous posts pointed out, China reacts to international issues by being aggressive and usually comes out better with more land.

So where am I taking this?

A glance on the map and entire border of China and India (everyone knows this I guess), we have three borders with China. One which goes is in Ladakh all the way to Nepal border in which the issue is going on, second in Sikkim and third in AP.

While Ladakh is the first finger in the overall plans of China, Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim & AP are the remaining 4 fingers.

Sikkim in my opinion at present gives the most strategic advantage to China. Ladakh is good to show but it does practically nothing for China. They already have connection to Pakistan and if India wanted to take GB, not having Ladakh will not stop them. AP is the same and even lesser in value compared to Ladakh for now. Sikkim on the other hand literally gives them a way to cut off India into two at any time. This will make it far easier to take AP and maybe the whole NE in the future whenever they want. A highway via Sikkim (or AP) to Bay of Bengal becomes a high possibility which makes a lot more economic sense for them compared to CPEC which is risky due to the thousand Paki issues and they know that.

Is it possible that the intention is to keep all media, attention, talks etc etc engaged in Ladakh while preparing for a short swift strike in Sikkim and occupying land there? By the time IA can mobilize, strike is over and they go into defensive positions which is more tenable. Some more points which can work in their favor:

    Doklam three years back could have simply been an information gathering exercise to get a feel of forces on ground. The short fist fight in beginning of May this year could be the same.
    With forces currently at LAC, they have a well laid out highway to move things any time they want by road if needed. It will take 24 hours from Pangong Tso. For IA to do similar redeployment, it will take 2.5 days via Delhi - roads which are bad and used by public.
    A relatively small number of well targeted missiles can take out the current IA in Sikkim and losses for Chinese can be minimized.
    They can assume safely (due to history) that India does not go offensive and the Pakistani deployment which has already happened will make sure that IA has to be wary of moving troops away from Northern borders.
    War could be over by the time GoI and Indian fauj can ever realize.

They will not only be shown to be super powerful back home as well as define terms at the border but they will have got a huge strategic advantage against India for future.....

Am I making sense? Or is the reason for browning my dhoti only because of overindulgence in Biryani?

Very good read . You are right China will only strike where they can win .And if they strike here could be linking up with Bangladesh in the future who seems to going over to then Chins. A Chinese naval base here would mean Indian navy will have its work cut out.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2020 14:58

Regarding Arunachal, the Chinese have a lot of construction near Manling but it all north of Manmohan line which follows the watershed principle and follows the line of peaks , this to me 28.583719, 93.406261 is their only post since 2009 on our side of Mcmohan line.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 02 Jul 2020 15:30

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Let me try and put this economy discussion in perspective.

[*]Is China going to let us be in peace?

No. They need a subservient state that will kowtow to them line they kowtowed to the world during their century of humiliation. Expecting them to change is line expecting a tiger to turn vegan.


[*] Is it acceptable for us to allow China's rise unchallenged? What would be so bad?


I think the 2nd question is easily answered. We cannot allow China's rise to be unchallenged because that way we would be restricting our own rise. We're going to be the third largest economy and as such it is in China's interest to contain our rise before we become too powerful. This is exactly what they've been doing all along. So we're going to remain in an economic and security war with them regardless of what we do. We can surrender, and to be fair if that brought us any advantage, it would be worth considering. But there's no benefit in that, not fighting back makes our situation worse, not better.

[*] If we need to fight the Chinese, when's a good time?

This is not baking a cake or sowing wheat. The best time is when your enemy is not expecting it. Or if he expects you to fight then fight him at a place of your choosing. The best tinder is now. As we keep waiting for our economy to touch 3.2 trillion, of Dassault delivering 3 more Rafael or S400 to be flown down, the enemy is changing facts on the ground.
Time to fight its now. We are behaving like the sissy who comes back home promising to fight the bully after he gets 18 inch biceps.


I agree on this but with a slight difference on the definition of now. "Now" can be anywhere between 6 months and 2 years. Being a sissy is about moral weakness, not physical weakness. Once we have the resolve, nothing prevents us from finding a way to redress the relative difference in power. The relative difference is not that great to begin with. I would compare it more to a fat 6 feet guy and SDRE 5 feet guy. You can hit the bully with an iron road from the back, you can poison their tea, you can spread rumors about them so they get into a fight with a stronger guy, you can hit their ego, you can sabotage them whenever you get the chance. Once the resolve is there, you can do everything from punching them on the nose to stabbing them with a rusty knife in a back alley. With China we have to fight them dirty, fight them in a time and place of our choosing and till we fight we have to do everything possible to undermine them.

[*]Most critical question- What is our objective?



Our objective is to maintain our civilisation, to prosper by grabbing our destiny with both our hands and to protect ourselves while we do this. To achieve this we need to win time to grow. For that we need temporary deterrence. For that we need to fight and fight before our power differential grows.

Regarding water being a factor, as some people have mentioned, I think it's a complete misunderstanding. The chances of water wars occurring are zero. A large study showed that although water can be a cause of conflict, it usually remains at the verbal and diplomatic levels. Another important thing to remember is that water is not fungible, meaning that unlike oil, controlling the source doesn't bring you much. You can't take a transboundary river, put it in your pocket and walk away. As for dams, they primarily redistribute water over time, have a slight impact on redistributing water spatially but are close to useless at depriving downstream countries of water. The greater he amount of water you withold, the greater your area that will be flooded by the reservoir. The amount of water carried by rivers is too great and you have to find something to do with the water, not an easy thing. For example even if you withhold water in Tibet, you can only grow barley which doesn't even need much water. Sugarcane, rice, soybean, nothing can grow there.

The major transfer of water China is doing is the South-North project, which hasn't even been very effective. So no, water is not even a minor issue in the India-China conflict.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby sajaym » 02 Jul 2020 15:45



Seeing this video, you can see the vulnerability of tank operations in the mountains. The tanks are moving on flat lands between towering mountains on both sides. Anti-tank crews sitting on the mountains and looking down on the tanks have a naturally advantageous shot. Plus in those regions, since the ambient temperature is already low, the heat signatures from the tanks will standout, so IR suppression from the tanks has to be really good. Also, due to the rarified air in those regions, the typical AT missiles in their top-attack profile will climb higher -- so already fired from higher ground + even greater climb by the missile, means it will come down with higher kinetic power. Deadly combination for tank crews.

Attack helicopters can also be easily targetted with shoulder fired surface to air missiles and anti-material rifles by people actually looking down on them from the mountains. So it's okay if the chinese would like to come first in droves -- if we are positioned in the heights with adequate numbers of AT & SA missiles, it'll be like throwing stones from rooftops onto the hordes below. Ideally, we should be sending the Rudras in first and saving the Apaches for the last. But I guess the only reason the Apaches are there is to use it's radar to try & take shots at the S-400s by hiding behind hill features.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 02 Jul 2020 15:47

mahadevbhu wrote:
RaviB wrote:
This is not true at all. While certainly not as easily covered as Pakistan, China has several major targets in the range of ~1000 km. Chengdu is around 900km from Dibrugarh, Chongqing (also written Chungking) is I think around 1100 km. Chengdu is a major military centre. Chongqing was developed as a city precisely as part of the third line of defence (IIRC), a city not too close to the sea that would serve as a military centre. Administratively, it has the same status as Beijing and Shanghai and has a population of 30 million. These are both perfect counterforce targets. There's also Kunming which is even closer but that would only be relevant as a countervalue target.

India has a highly redundant capability to hit these targets.


Guys all the ranges of our missiles are curtailed for public consumption and to espouse a defensive posture. The ranges of all missiles from prithvi onwards are multiple times what is publicly proclaimed. Brahmos is tomahawk like range wise. No need to worry about even conventional responses. We don't have any problems in responding correctly. What we do have a problem in is winning the war. We can possibly win the engagement locally..but winning a war is impossible.

1. I would rather go with the declared ranges even if the ranges have been rounded down.

2. The liquid fueled Prithvi is more or less out of the picture. This is the first time I am hearing the claim of Brahmos range being in class of tomahawk. Its supposed grandfather, the P-800 Oniks, has a stated range on 800 km at best.

3. With Agni series we have sufficient range for Chengdu, Chongqing and more.

4. While we have missiles of sufficient range to target military instillation in Tibet and more with conventional warhead, we don't seem to have sufficient of the conventionally armed missiles to match the Chinese rocket force.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Pashupatastra » 02 Jul 2020 16:00

arshyam wrote:
Pashupatastra wrote:I feel the current government is falling to the same stratagem of resorting to talks with an enemy whose only objective is to deprive India of it's territory and humiliate to cut to size.
Did Nehru actually build infrastructure to support forward logistics?
Did Nehru actually ensure the Army and ITBP deployed in strength in advance of any hostilities?
Did Nehru actually ensure the Army and ITBP have the necessary gear and resources to stay deployed in the forward areas?
Did Nehru go around giving sound bytes about the issue to anyone and everyone?

Now - please answer these questions based on Modi's actions - if you still justify your post, it's only sustained trolling, plain and simple. Seems like your time is better spent reading up about how the '62 conflict came about before handing out such "feeling" based analysis.

Pashupatastra wrote:We have the capability but need the political will to take combat to the enemy.
Serious question: what would be the objective?

Pashupatastra wrote:The world would flock to India if they can see that India has gone on offensive.
Is this what Nehru thought? Is it what Modi is thinking today? Clearly, it's what you are, but without any justification, it is just hand-waving. So can we see some?

If you don't mind my saying, kindly drop the "equal-equal" line, and focus on these last two points. They are more relevant in the current scenario and can actually lead to some useful discussions. JMT and all that.

[Edited for grammar]


Let me jog your memory on the efforts expended by our government over last few years -
1. 14 visits to China and 18 meetings with Xi-Xingping to understand and focus on avenues for India - China collaboration.
2. Referencing the "Wuhan Spirit" (Panchsheel ?) and "Not a single bullet has been fired in 40 years"

The following link points to the inefficiency and delay for high altitude clothing
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/tro ... 38343.html

The government has been working actively to build infrastructure in both eastern and western borders and this has definitely improved the logistics. But , can anyone deny the encroachment on Pangong Tso or near Galwan valley ? The objective to call for an offensive is to push back the Chinese and restore the status before March 2020.

The news excerpts like this - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 746297.cms calling banning of 59 apps as a digital strike while a step in right direction is not adequate.


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