The Road to World Power

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 17 Jul 2001 07:45

Only one comment for now - and that would put this discussion outside this forum if I continue.<P>Let me put it this way Matthew. Can you check the wetaher outside your window and tell me what the weather is like outside mine? Talking of population is a bit like that - and if you lie about your weather, you may well end up being way off about mine.<P>Having been obliged to study certain subjects in my younger days I remember being forced to memorize "facts" that clearly indicated that India would overtake China's population by Y2K. Who predicted this and where is this guy now?<P>I am not saying population is not a problem - it is the single cause of keeping the poverty percentages where they are. But this country comparion with a nation not renowned for either fairness or the truth actually pis ses me off. I think we have a better model for population control, and it is working, and we are better at telling the truth to ourselves and others, so that we do not necessarily have to force people to read and memorise projections based on doubtful statistics from a totalitarian state like China.<p>[This message has been edited by shiv (edited 16-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby George J » 17 Jul 2001 22:14

Road to World Power= [(Financial+Military+Political)Resources]* Time<P>In this equation we are:<BR>Financially behind China, Militarily on overall parity (arguably) and Political ahead. But on the Time variable, they are ahead of us by 20 years.<P>You can plug in other countries and hopefully this equation should give you their world power standing.<P>The variable Financial does include Industraial base, R+D base, Education base and Infrastructure.<P>Industrially and Infrastructurally they are ahead of us. R+D they are on parity with us leading in a few spheres and vice verser, Education again parity.<P>Will we ever catch up? Not if China continues at this rate. Is that really bad? Not really, coz we have to meet our own benchmarks.<P>Are we better today than when we started out 54 years ago? We sure are. Is 54 years enough time for 1/6th of humanity (the democratic fraction) to progress? Not by a long shot.<P>EDIT: See semantic changes on democracy.<p>[This message has been edited by George J (edited 17-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby JE Menon » 17 Jul 2001 22:34

George, <P>>>1/6th of democratic humanity <P>Agree on everything but will pick this nit. Surely, we constitute more than a sixth of democratic humanity.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Vick » 17 Jul 2001 22:41

JEM,<P>Total world population: 6 bil<BR>Indian pop: 1 bil<P>Ratio of Indians to world pop: 1/6

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Nikhil Shah » 17 Jul 2001 22:45

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Vick:<BR><B>JEM,<P>Total world population: 6 bil<BR>Indian pop: 1 bil<P>Ratio of Indians to world pop: 1/6</B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Not everybody of that 6 bil lives in a democratic society.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 18 Jul 2001 07:27

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Matthew:<BR><B>In world power how would India rank? Will India ever surpass China?</B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>What bothers me about the question is the shameless manner in which China is used as the yardstick to surpass. Is that all we can aspire to? Get ahead of China? Please don't give me the crap that "We Indian can't aspire to anything higher - let's first get to China's level"<P>Talk about living in a well. I have said this before and say so again<P>Let's look at systems that we need to emulate<P>Political system: Is China the the example of the best political system to emulate? Or is it India/US?European models. Singapore/Malaysia/Saudi?<P>Science and Technology: Is China the model of science and tech we need to emulate? Or is it the US<P>Population control: Is the coercive Chinese model the one to emulate? I think there are better systems, including our own<P>Banking: Is the crap Chinese model of banking the one we need to emulate? Or models from developed nations?<P>Human rights, religious freedom: Is someome suggesting that the Chinese system is the one to follow.<P>Healthcare: Kindly tell me what it is about China's healthcare system that we need to emulate surpass? I would say healthcare system in the UK/Scandinavia/Belgium/netherlands are better models to look at.<P>Arts/Entertainment/Freedom to write/Literature: Chinese model to emulate.<P>Come o-o-o-o-n! <P>And this thread does not belon in the security forum - I am transferring ot to the HICAF forum.<P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby S Bajwa » 18 Jul 2001 07:42

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>* China in her latest rounds of military training has been coordinating military strikes with information war. Newsweek Special Asia Edition reports that China is recruiting hackers and has several virus able to neutralize complex computer systems. DOES INDIA HAVE THIS TECHNOLOGY?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>What technology man? Technology to create viruses and hack computers? You got to be KIDDIN.......<P>Creating viruses is VER VERY EASY! and easiest way to hack computer is to target the thing between computer and chair. <P>With 128-bit encryption and other algorithms any country trying to spend their money on hacking computers is living in fool's paradise.<P>BTW... If you relly know that China is spending money to hire hackers, tell them to employ me too Image. I can pretend to hack Mainframes, Oracle databases, Unix Systems as well as others., and make some quick bux. <P>BTW.. Have you ever seen a virus for Mainframe, Unix or andy other systems except for the one's based on CRAPPY MICROSOFT OS?<P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby vmshete » 18 Jul 2001 08:18

Why do Indians always have to look through Chinese prism? Isn't it coz we are as obessed with China as Pakistan is with us? Both India and China are Billion+ populations but China started its reforms atleast 20 years ahead of India. <P>------------------<BR>Visit my site at<BR>http://www.geocities.com/vaisal/

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby S Bajwa » 18 Jul 2001 20:34

When creating websites! Here are my rule of thumb?<P>1. At least check your website once a day. (don't create a website and then forget about it).<P>2. Websites must be on Linux, Sun or any of the Unix Systems, Lotus notes is ok too (security wise) (DEFINETELY NOT ON MICROSOFT).<P>3. Advertise your real IP (along with URL) so that if someone hacked the network (to route the webpage to their server), at least some of the users can still visit normal website.<P>4. Create a script that runs every hour and does a nslookup (ping,etc, too) to make sure that URL is pointing to correct IP address., and if not PAGE, EMAIL YOURSELF and your ISP, as well as email to anti-hacker organizations on Internet., log the IP address of the server (where your hacked website is pointing), find out who owns the server and SUE THEM. <P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby venkat_r » 18 Jul 2001 20:38

George: On education front China is ahead of India and no parity there i think<P>There seem to be lot of people who are vexed with the way we compare our selves to China, Shiv - Your post on this is interesting. The way any one would like to compare is to compare with a person moving ahead. No wonder Pak compares with us all the time as we are ahead of that all the time. No surprises here.<BR>Well it is wrong to compare in every aspect with china as in some of them we have parity and in someother issues we are ahead of them. But, overall i am sure you would agree that they are ahead of us and are headed to be the world's largest economy with a higher speed than us. <BR>What does that mean? * Nothing * just what it says. There are a lot of places where we could emmulate them, examples in exports and creating EPZs and in communications. That does not mean that we are closed to learning the same from other successful countries, but just means that we need to learn and improve in those sectors. Thats all. <BR>On the road to the world power we have to learn from a lot of countries, we have lot of states in India with the population equalent or more to some of the Europian countries but the exports of our country are less than them. our communications, per capita income, our defence spending, energy consumption percapita, manufacturing sector, are not in the comparable scale.<BR>The genral perception of comparing to china is in my opinion the size of the population of that country which matches with our own. <P>On the road to the World Power defnitely China is a milestone to cross and comparing with it is not mistake.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Tanaji » 18 Jul 2001 21:49

Off topic:<BR>>With 128-bit encryption and other algorithms any country trying to<BR> spend their money on hacking computers is living in fool's paradise.<P>Famous last words...<BR>There is no such thing as a "secure network", period. Whatever the encryption, alogrithms, etc. a determined hacker will be successful. It is only a question of time, effort and money. The trick is to ensure that damages are minimal.<P>------------------<BR><I>Allakh Niranjan!</I>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby George J » 18 Jul 2001 22:41

Venkat_R:<P>Well to answer you question i went to the sites listed below...i got more confused that enlightened...the tables are not comparitive..and India has a lot more info than china has. Plus we can be always sure that there is no way in hell you can verify whatever china puts up.<P>I think one of the biggest plus for Indian system of higher education is that its mostly in English so we produce more marketable candidates on the global fora. As far as quality of education goes..i think its equally pathetic based on rote learning.<P>My greatest worry is the day that the Chinese Mandarins decide that their ppl should learn Good spoken english..then we are screwed.<P><BR>Education Stats on China:<BR> <A HREF="http://www.edu.cn/english/statistics/edu/edu_99_01.php" TARGET=_blank>http://www.edu.cn/english/statistics/edu/edu_99_01.php</A> <P><BR>Education Stats on India:<BR> <A HREF="http://www.education.nic.in/htmlweb/iamrstat.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.education.nic.in/htmlweb/iamrstat.htm</A> <P><BR>As to why do we need to compare with china..to echo what Vmsathe said...we are the only two developing nations in the billionaire club..hence they make for the best comparitors, but we are not identical in our political structure...we assume that China is more oppressive and hence are able to get away with sweeping changes with little or no disregard...while we live in a PIL paradise...where local govts. fall due to the price of onions. Both systems are good in their ways...China can really get large scale reforms done with mimimal opposition..while everything we do..we have to swollow a bitter PIL.<P>Sure we could compare with the US..but with a 150 odd year democratic lead over us with 1/4th our population and 4 times are landmass i think we are not really good comparitors.<P>And thats why i reiterate we will NEVER catch up with any other country that is ahead of us with our current political environment. But its NOT important for us to catch up...as long as we make incremental progress we are doing fine. So give it time.<P>The world knows where we stand in the world order...we know where we should stand..lets be in line...things will happen in their own time.<P>My biggest worry..and i really hope you can quell my fears...is that we are over doing our military quests...$95 billion is a lot of money to spend even over 15 years...and i really dont want india to go the Soviet way...i hope we dont upset the balance. For every step forward we take militarily we need to take 5-10 steps forward economically. Thats what China does and thats we need to emulate.<BR>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby karthik » 19 Jul 2001 00:29

Shiv i dont agree with you China is a great country to compare with and they are doing excellent progress,you left out many areas like Sports,infrastructure and industries did you know that the Chinese textile industry is 16 times bigger than our then give me a reason why we should not compare?<P>In another decade the chinese are going to over take the beloved United States of America which you so despreatly whant to compare,then what are you still going to keep whineing about how we should not compare with chinese because they are comies,then who are you going to compare,the fact of the matter is the chinese only started reforms in the 80s and India in the 90s should there not be ten years gap between us where did this twienty year gap come from are they not getting ahead of us,then why not compare.<P><BR>In the year 2020 India is going to replace germany as the worlds fourth largest economy I think we must be ashamed that by 2020 we can only beat germany we must be proud to compare with a country like china which has the balls to achive and the balls to spit on the Yankes face.We should try to over take the U.S by that time,we must stop telling our selfs that china is only a few yards in front of us the fact is they are going out of reach,we must start excepting the fact that china has to be given credit.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby karthik » 19 Jul 2001 00:34

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Matthew:<BR><B><BR>China is the foremost power in Asia - no matter what we all might say. She has a modernizing armed force with a sophisticated missile armory. Its economy is growing and its population is SLOWLY declining. India is capable of alot more but before it goes on to more and better things it has to match and exceed China! <P> </B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>I am afraid that is the only country in the earth that we cant over take may be equal is the right word.<P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby S Bajwa » 19 Jul 2001 01:23

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>In another decade the chinese are going to over take the beloved United States of America which you so despreatly whant to compare,then what are you still going to keep whineing about how we should not compare with chinese because they are comies,then who are you going to compare,the fact of the matter is the chinese only started reforms in the 80s and India in the 90s should there not be ten years gap between us where did this twienty year gap come from are they not getting ahead of us,then why not compare.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>How will China overtake USA? Certainly not by exporting plastic toys and shoes to the markets in USA? <P>USA is DA HAPPENING PLACE MAN!!!!!!!! RESEARCH IS DA KEY...<P>people invent here... and then send the factories to china/taiwan/cub(tiger) countries....<P>just look the last 100 years,,, Cars, airplanes, computers, internet, medicine, etc,etc,etc (and military technology and biotech and space, etc,etc,etc).... <P>USA has 200 + universities (primarily for research)., USA welcomes any productive<BR>person to come to their country and enjoy life with unlimited oppurtunities in any field! (unlike china). <P>China's economy was growing because of USA (and all the companies here) and if US wants they can take CHINA's economy down the drain in less than 3 months.<P><BR>Sandeep

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Rudra » 19 Jul 2001 01:48

It must be said the super-powerdom does not<BR>happen in a decade or in 5 decades even.<P>The industrial revolution took off in<BR>right earnest in USA around 1850s when civil<BR>war placed great demands on industry. USA<BR>had the benefit of unlimited resources and<BR>no hostile power trying to keep it in check<BR>(like PRC has).<P>By 1900, USA was a power to be reckoned with<BR>but still not a super-power like britain.<BR>her army was too small, navy was ok, AF was<BR>ofcourse not there.<P>By 1920, USA was in position to dictate terms<BR>to UK, france et al. the naval treaty signed<BR>then on allowed tonnages saw UK play second<BR>fiddle and I think Japan was allowed the<BR>2nd or 3rd largest navy.<P>So in all it took about 75 yrs of peace and<BR>unrestrained growth, coupled with the <BR>weakening of france and germany thru WW-I<BR>for USA to hold the whip-hand in 1925.<P>Even then, the real industrial boom of 1940-1960 was driven by another war. <P>So lets say 100 yrs ? PRC started moving in<BR>1980, so one should expect a very mighty<BR>power in 2050 and a un-questioned 'hegemon'<BR>in the pacific in 2080 IF it does not waste<BR>its resources or strength by getting into<BR>wars against a combination of stronger powers<BR>in the meantime.<P>So far its strategy has been on the dot.<BR>E.Asia is soon to be under its economic thumb. Euros are fawning and wagging their<BR>tails to get rich contracts everytime PRC<BR>decides to 'punish' US by giving contracts <BR>to others.<P>They ARE getting their higher education system into high gear. They perhaps send more<BR>students abroad then India does now.<P>In the future, univs like tsinghua and beijing are going to be the Mits and berkeleys of asia. funding + bright manpower + huge domestic industry is what it takes.<BR>I forsee first E.asian students being the <BR>initial crop of foreign students. Japan has<BR>good univs but closed immigration policies.<P>At this stage, if the PRC plays a smart hand<BR>and opens immigration to r&d and high tech<BR>people, it should be able to attract people<BR>from singapore upto hong kong in 10-15 yrs<BR>when the living conditions reach that of<BR>asian tigers along 1200km east coast.<P>the Game is being played on many levels....<P>If India doesnt stop snoozing, it will be <BR>marginalized not thru a war, but quietly,<BR>thru economic and political means. <P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby csharma » 19 Jul 2001 03:14

Matthew, do you know how much is India's defence spending as % of GDP? Close to 3%. Why do you think that it is not sustainable?<BR>The second question is why should India's economy fail? Do you have any special reason for that. By that token, China's economy could also fail.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby George J » 19 Jul 2001 03:43

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sbajwa:<BR><B> China's economy was growing because of USA (and all the companies here) and if US wants they can take CHINA's economy down the drain in less than 3 months.</B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>Well that would be suicidal for the USA. Not to mention totally infeasble. USA depends on China to provide it most of its consumer durables...if they want to shut that down. They would have to close shop and shift production base: maintaining same capacity elsewhere.<P>Thats not gonna happen in a few months. Alternately if WALMART for eg. stops buying its products from china..where the heck is it gonna get say a million soap dish per month ? Sure it can ecourage other vendors..but to get the same quantities in months is not possible. Besides the chinese vedor will seek out other buyers in europe and asia and heck even in India.<P>The global economy is too interconnected to take something like that. <P>Oh and the final reason it wont happen...coz the US business interest in china is too valuable for them to shut down overnight...money sure talks.<P><BR>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby csharma » 19 Jul 2001 04:52

Matthew, I do not have the answers to a lot of the numbers you want to know. My point was to let you know that India is not overspending of defence. Last decade India underspent on defence and is trying to do a bit of catch up now which is pretty normal in the course of most nations.<P> It is true that China is growing faster than India and has grown faster than India for about two decades. Congratulations to them. India's economy grew at a rate of 6.5% last decade which is pretty good by any standards. For that last 5 years, India is the second fastest growing country in Asia, China being is the fastest and is way ahead of others. A growth of 6-7% is by itself good and brings down poverty, increases the funds available for education,healthcare, as well as defence. Having said that, I am not saying that we should be satisfied with 6-7% growth. We are capable of better growth and should reform the economy to increase the growth rate.<P> <BR> I agree there is a lot of poverty in India. A lot of people are not getting adequate healthcare. What concrete suggestions do you have for these? I would like to know what would you do differenly if you were in power. <P> Secondly what about the deals with Russia and Isreal. How did you arrive at the conclusion that these deals are not affordable at 6% growth ? <p>[This message has been edited by csharma (edited 18-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby csharma » 19 Jul 2001 05:06

Just wanted to add that India is one of a handful of countries which is on track to reducing poverty by half by 2015. China is also one of them. This was in the news recently, most probably in the UNHD report. <BR> <BR> It is true that India is not portrayed in favorable light in American media. maybe you are getting too much affected by that. Just a guess.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Sridhar » 19 Jul 2001 06:08

Mathew:<P>I cannot give you exact figures, but the money spent on poverty reduction, <I>per se</I> is not small. Education, health, population control all get roughly 3% each. And this does not include capital expenditure (new schools, new hospitals, potable water projects etc.) The difference is in the level of leakage. While there is leakage in defence expenditure as well, it is a small fraction of that for other areas of Government expenditure. Quoting Rajiv Gandhi, less than 5 paise out of each rupee spent actually reaches those it is supposed to reach. <P>Therefore cutting defence expenditure has marginal effect since every rupee moved from defence to education, say, would mean that we get only 5 paise more for the latter, at great cost to our security and while further fattening a small bunch of already fat people.<P>Therefore, the remedy lies in reforming the Government machinery so that wastage and looting of money meant for development stops. This is easier said than done, but no serious attempt has been made till now.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 19 Jul 2001 07:51

I'll tell you where I would give an arm to watch India catch up with China - even halfway.<P>Sport. China has a lot of hidden rubbish IMO, but you can't dispute the glint of gold medals.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby kautilya » 19 Jul 2001 08:01

when China gives out a growth number, worls bank subtracts 1-2% points from that figure for there own internal calculations. The figures coming out of China are not reliable. <P>This is not saying that they are not grwing well, just that when they say they grew by 7.9%, realistically it's probably closer to 6-6.5%<P><BR>India's "final" figures for growth rate are considered to be good and accepted by everybody, though prliminary figures have mostly turned out to be lower then final except for last year.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby svinayak » 19 Jul 2001 11:26

Please check this out<BR> <A HREF="http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/china/chinacont.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/china/chinacont.html</A> <P>STRATEGIC TRENDS IN CHINA<P>Hans Binnendijk and<BR> Ronald N. Montaperto<P> <P>INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES<BR> NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY<P>CHINA - A Country Study <A HREF="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/cntoc.html" TARGET=_blank>http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/cntoc.html</A> <P><BR><p>[This message has been edited by acharya (edited 19-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby venkat_r » 20 Jul 2001 02:15

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by George J:<BR><B>Venkat_R:<P>Well to answer you question i went to the sites listed below...i got more confused that enlightened...the tables are not comparitive..and India has a lot more info than china has. Plus we can be always sure that there is no way in hell you can verify whatever china puts up.<P>I think one of the biggest plus for Indian system of higher education is that its mostly in English so we produce more marketable candidates on the global fora. As far as quality of education goes..i think its equally pathetic based on rote learning.<P>My greatest worry is the day that the Chinese Mandarins decide that their ppl should learn Good spoken english..then we are screwed.<P><BR>My biggest worry..and i really hope you can quell my fears...is that we are over doing our military quests...$95 billion is a lot of money to spend even over 15 years...and i really dont want india to go the Soviet way...i hope we dont upset the balance. For every step forward we take militarily we need to take 5-10 steps forward economically. Thats what China does and thats we need to emulate.</B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P><BR>Could not agree with you beter. You put it right. Especially when you suggest how we should move forward economically wrt Military. New CIA estimate is 79 bill $ for china's mil expendeture which i really do not concur, and believe there are many factors why they fudged the figure so high. <P>Coming to the education their genral literacy rate is much higher than India's. which makes the growth rates in literacy not comparable.<P>Our World Power path i think should not be completely China centric as this thread seems to be getting into. <P>India has a lot of potential to grow in the exports, it is very easy to learn this by seeing the exports of France or Germany or Italy. Look at the Automation done in Japan and Singapore where we can improve more. Politically we have USA to compare to ...

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby venkat_r » 20 Jul 2001 02:31

Probably, the post by Arun from the pak related thread might be of interest here. I am copying it Here. <P> <A HREF="http://www.india-today.com/itoday/20010723/cover-economies.shtml" TARGET=_blank>http://www.india-today.com/itoday/20010723/cover-economies.shtml</A> <P>Especially Indian exports give a very green picture for the future.<BR><p>[This message has been edited by venkat_r (edited 19-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby venkat_r » 20 Jul 2001 03:35

data on Exports of some countries from CIA World fact book.<P>Germany: <BR>$610 billion (f.o.b., 1999 est.) <P>France: <BR>$304.7 billion (f.o.b., 1999) <P>Italy: <BR>$242.6 billion (f.o.b., 1998) <P>Japan: <BR>$413 billion (f.o.b., 1999 est.) <P>United Kingdom: <BR>$271 billion (f.o.b., 1998) <P>United States: <BR>$663 billion (f.o.b., 1998 est.) <P>China: <BR>$194.9 billion (f.o.b., 1999) <P>India: <BR>$36.3 billion (f.o.b., 1999 est.) <BR>ofcourse the Latest figueres for India is about 44 billion $ after a 20% increase this year. But as can be seen from the figures we have a lot more potential to realise and lot more to grow in this area.<P><BR>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Calvin » 20 Jul 2001 18:25

Does anyone here really believe that China grew at 10+% for the last twenty years?<P>1. IF they do, I wantt to know why stop at 20 yearrs == the Chinese have been claiming 10+% growth for the last 40.<P>2. What has been teh rate of increase in energy generation in China -- has it kept pace with this "growth"?

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Rudra » 20 Jul 2001 20:38

<A HREF="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html</A> <P>Calvin, if you read the para under "electricity" seems to indicate that<BR>they are power surplus in atleast some areas<BR>wherein older, sick plants were actually <BR>closed down.<P>When you think of India, I dont think any<BR>large country has such a messy power situation as we do. So apt comparisons are<BR>quite tough to make unless gratification is<BR>desired by beating up on folks like nepal or<BR>bangladesh.<P>Power, Roads and Water hold the key to the<BR>survival and growth of the Indic civilization, though the discourse on the<BR>Indic traditions list would seem to indicate<BR>otherwise Image<P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Pathmarajah » 22 Jul 2001 18:17

Will India be a superpower? If so, when?<P>Given per capita PPP of $2,100 now, 6-7% growth rates, with current population growth rates and stabilising in 1.5 b in 2050:<P>1. Poverty will be single digit in 2007-2010, with per capita PPP at $3,000-$3500<P>2. Third largest economy in PPP terms in 2012-2015,<P>3. Industrialised nation in 2020 with percapita PPP of $5,000, with manufacturing, construction and services accounting for about 80% of the economy,<P>4. Will exceed US defence spending in 2025-2030 in real terms,(see note below)<P>5. Will exceed USA as second largest economy in about 2040-2050,<P>6. Will exceed China as largest economy in the world in 2050-2055, where India will have a population of 1.5b compared with China's pop of 1.3 b and declining.<P>7. At this stage, India will be no. 1, China no.2, USA no. 3, EC no. 4, Japan no.5. No significant change in rankings expected after that for several hundred years.<P>Note:<BR>India spends $13.5 billion to maintain a 1 million men army, 800 aircraft airforce and 120 ship navy. The USA spends $300 to maintain a somewhat larger armed forces.<P>If India just doubles its spending to $26b it has achieved conventional military parity with the USA. This would occur in 2010 or so. This is what is meant by 'in real terms'.<P><BR>Chart out the pop and economic growth rates for the next 50 years on your excel document for the various nations and see if these projections are true. Use both PPP and Nominal figures.<P>If it appears approximately likely as I say, rest easy!<P>If you cant rest easy and want it now, this is the next step.<P>We have learnt that, 'its the economy stupid! Economy means growth, and growth means investment. Current investment in India can only produce 6-7% growth, no more. If we want faster, 8-9% growth rates, there has to be much more investment. This extra money can only come from more credit from the banks for businessmen, more local and foreign borrowing, as well as foreign direct investment. <P>So unless India liberalises the banking sector, as well as businesses allowing more entrepreneurship, and, allow more fdi to come in, then we can see 8-9% growth rates. <P>FDI must not be confused with <B>portfolio investments, which must not be encouraged.</B> These are short term monies coming in to participate in the stock exchanges which in the long term creates havoc, as per the asian crisis of 1997.<P>India did not grow much from 1965 to 1991 simply because of the absence of the growth factors mentioned in the preceding paras.<P>Indian forex grew from $2b to $44b from 1991 to 2001. At this rate of growth, it will grow to $70b by about 2006.<P>Therefore India can afford to borrow, say, $25b over 3 years, and this is enough to construct 5 new international airports like Singapore/Kuala Lumpur, 3 new container ports, 5 power stations, and 5,000 km of highways.<P>These additional investments over 3 years WILL push up growth rates to well over 9% for each of the 3 years, and thereafter, the multiplier effect on the economy will probably sustain more than 8% growth rates for several more years!<P>I think this is the way to go. Most of these investments will pay for itself over 25 years.<p>[This message has been edited by Pathmarajah (edited 22-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Pathmarajah » 23 Jul 2001 03:36

Before anyone starts to overestimate China's economic growth, we have to consider <B>acharya link</B>; <P>This is not new news, except that what is taking so long to materialise.(well the takeover of Hong Kong is one reason, the other is America's continued dalliance with China after the takeover. This may change after Bush's policies properly comes into effect)<BR> <A HREF="http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/china/chinasess1.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/china/chinasess1.html</A> <P>here are some excerpts:<P>"While the state sector's share of total output has declined steadily, employment in the state-run industries has increased by more than 50 percent since 1978, and fully three-quarters of China's urban dwellers people owe their jobs to the state. This figure remains unchanged since 1985. (compare this with Indian PSUs and their share of Indian employment)<P>Turning to the banking sector, outstanding bank loans have risen from 50 to 90 percent of China's GDP. This is not a sustainable phenomenon. Bank loans have been increasing at more than twice the rate of the underlying economic activity. <P>Since 1985, bank deposits have declined by five-sixths, which puts China well below world standards for capital. (whereas India's deposits have increased tremendously as posted in this forum earlier)<P>The bottom line is that China's long-term growth rate is going to be lower than it has been in the past decade. <B>The pessimistic outlook is for lower growth rates or even for stagnation in real terms. Extrapolations from current trends are dangerous. The growth rate will shrink, and the real question is by how much.</B> <P>Long-term growth implications are negative, perhaps very negative. Likewise, China will be unable to even out economic performance, regardless of the average growth rate, and large fluctuations will continue if the banking sector is not reformed. "<P><BR>No such news have ever been posted about India.<P>No nation can withstand 90% of its bank loans going bad. In Asia it took only 30% of its loans going bad to start a crisis.<P>What this means is that China's coming financial crisis will be far larger than that of the Asian finacial crisis of 1997. It will probably be equal to the collapse of the Russian economy in 1998. <P>Their only saving grace is their reserves and that of Hong Kong's that they could use to offset the huge losses.<P>But it would take $300b at least to reform China's banking sector. There is almost no chance that they could do this, and neither is there any chance that they could continue with such defence spending as they do now.<P>Simply by the devaluation of the yuan, China's defence spending will fall to a fifth of what it is now, much like Russia's defence spending is now lower that that of India.<P>I take it for granted that everyone realises that India's defence spending is larger than Russia's already! What preposterous ideas!

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Calvin » 23 Jul 2001 09:40

Gerald Segal. "Does China Matter?". Foreign Affairs Vol 78 No.5, September/October 1999. <A HREF="http://www.segal.org/gerald/fasep99.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.segal.org/gerald/fasep99.htm</A> <P>The provocative title sets the tone for this paper on China. The first three of its four sections asks whether China matters economically, militarily, and politically, and the fourth asks whether it matters if China does not matter. Segal proceeds to answer his own questions in the qualified negative. Segal makes a strong case that China is today an "overrated" power. <P>Economically, he notes that China matters less today than it did in 1800, even from the "now dubious" angle of purchasing power parity (PPP). Militarily, he refers to China as a "second rate" power, and suggests that talk of an US-Chinese strategic partnership is little more than recognition of Beijing’s nuisance value. Politically, China’s power is "puny" because of its vacillation about "how to manage the consequences of modernity and interdependence," the side effects of ideological weakening, and the economic uncertainties highlighted by the Asian crisis. <P>In the final section, Segal does not directly answer his own question about whether it matters if China does not matter. However, one can sense a qualified negative. He points out that China is "merely a middle power" which can be handled appropriately only if the West abandons its "pander complex" and adopts a strategy of "constrainment" as opposed to "containment."<P>Whether Segal’s position is eventually vindicated or not, this is one of the papers that Mr. Segal will be remembered for in the years to come. And deservedly so, for he had the gumption to ask a question that needed to be asked – even if the answer he provides is not likely to get him an A+ from that harshest of examiners, time.<P>While it is hard to argue with the notion that China is indeed an "overrated" power today, it is appropriate to say that Segal overstates his case. Economically, it may be true that China does not matter much in terms of "cold statistics" as the Asiaweek (Oct. 15, 99) critique of his paper put it. This is precisely why it will matter in the future. The potential market in China dwarfs that of Europe and the US. This is no abstraction. There are over a billion people who may buy that roll of Kodak film. No China-size market awaits European or US manufacturers in their home territories. Segal may be right, however, in suggesting that the West is erring too much on the side of caution.<P>Militarily, it is pertinent to point out that China has a fine understanding of power and how it can be used to state benefit. It is using its mischief-making capability to tweak Uncle Sam’s nose quite blatantly, on Taiwan for instance. While China may not be a power in Europe, it has considerable capacity to undermine American interests in Asia seriously. Its remote control over the two nuclear capable "rogues" in the region, North Korea, and Pakistan, is a testimony to this. Of course, it is not news that China cannot take on the US directly. But then who can, apart from Russia?China is by no means a "puny" political power. That it has chosen not to be aggressively anti-American at the UNSC only implies sufficiently good judgement. China had less to gain from actually undermining the US in Kosovo, for example, than from pretending to do so. If someone wants the best of both worlds – i.e. a darling of Western investors and a patron of the Third World outcasts – this is the way to go about it. It must also be remembered, China’s leaders are playing to a domestic audience. <P>Finally, it would have been a more interesting paper if Segal had elaborated on what abandoning the "pander complex" and "constrainment" means in practice. It appears that Segal was suggesting a tougher approach across the board from the West, reflecting the actuality of the various power functions. It is questionable whether that would be in the long-term interest of the West because that would generate a greater consciousness within China of its own weaknesses and may prompt measures to rectify them. Given the prevailing historical, political, religious, and economic compulsions of the day, a China that is less sensitive to its own weaknesses is less of a "threat." There is not much harm, in the meantime, to hedge your bets that there will come a day when every Chinese will buy a Kodak film. The West, too, is trying to have the best of both worlds – i.e. keep China uncertain about Western intentions and open to business at the same time. <P>J.E. Menon <A HREF="http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE2-4/nandv.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/ISSUE2-4/nandv.html</A>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby svinayak » 23 Jul 2001 12:08

The other side of the Glass India has a lot to do. <A HREF="http://www.hinduonnet.com/bline/stories/042320ha.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.hinduonnet.com/bline/stories/042320ha.htm</A> <P>Human Development Report 2001 -- India<BR> has a lot of catching up to do <P>According to the latest HDR, India ranks 115th in the<BR> family of nations. It has an HDI of 52.9 compared to<BR> the average of 64.5 for all developing countries, and<BR> 51.5 for least developed countries. Our HDI is<BR> significantly lower than that of East Asia and Pacific<BR> (59.2) and the OECD countries (76.6). <P> One of the principal reasons for India's low HDI is the<BR> GDP per capita ($2,248 in purchasing power terms)<BR> compared to an average of $3,530 per capita for all<BR> developing countries. The educational index also<BR> drags India down, with the figure standing at 0.56<BR> compared to the world average of 0.74. The HDI<BR> stands at 0.571 compared to the developing<BR> countries' overall average of 0.647.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby kautilya » 24 Jul 2001 02:07

<A HREF="http://www.economictimes.com/today/24edit04.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.economictimes.com/today/24edit04.htm</A> <P>China does it again.<P>Quotes ----<BR>"For the past two decades the Chinese economy has compounded at an economic growth rate of eight per cent in real terms and last year its economy topped a trillion dollars. <P>Another two decades of a similar growth profile, which looks entirely plausible, and the Chinese economy will be as big as the US economy is today. "<P><BR>Also ---<P>"The market size of the various products would, in fact, suggest its GDP statistics maybe understated. "

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby jairaj » 24 Jul 2001 12:52

As far as Chinas military development is concerned, its growth is subjected to many hurdles and cannot be a runaway power easily. This is because of the strategic situation in this part of the world (south-east asia). Unlike the US, China is ringed by countries that are militarily against it, Vietnam, Japan, S.Korea, Phillipine, Mongolia etc. Of course not to mention India and Russia on the other sides. Even small time countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are dead hostile to Chinese military growth as they have significant Chinese minorities whose loyalty is suspect. <P>Thus with significant Chinese military growth these countrues are more and more likely to strengthen the hands of the USA and will serve as a check and balance.

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby Victor » 28 Jul 2001 09:35

The replies to this thread are heavily China-centric which has nothing to do with India's emergence as a World power. <P>What we are overlooking is this: every country that the US has turned to over the decades has become a 'power': Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and China. Each of these countries owes an overwhelming portion of its development and progress to US investment and backing. Without the US demand, even China will degenerate to a mess of inefficient companies making sub-standard products for local consumption--like India today. <P>It is good that the US has finally recognized that India is where its at, today and tomorrow. If US investments flow to India like they did to Taiwan and China, we will become a power. The good news is that this is imminent. For several reasons, America has found India and wants to favor it.<P>What we have to do is make sure we don't have any more Dhabols. We do not need major US companies baying in the international press that they 'want out of India.' Question: are the Maharashtra officials qualified to discuss something like Dhabol? Why were not out top economic and power experts made the point end? <P>We have to smarten up and put our best people on the point end. As far as possible, keep the politicians out of sight. <P>

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 29 Jul 2001 08:42

<a href="http://www.ndtv.com/tech/showtech.asp?slug=India+five+years+ahead+of+China+in+IT&id=51">Go backwards</> to emulate China

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 30 Jul 2001 07:19

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Matthew:<BR><B>Washington Post - Saturaday July 28th <P>What on Earth!? <BR>How Wide a Web?<BR>Percent of Population using the web.<BR></B><HR></BLOCKQUOTE><P>New maths?<P>6 million out of 1 billion = 0.05%??<P>Singapore poplulation = 4 million <BR> <A HREF="http://www.singstat.gov.sg/FACT/SIF/sif3.html" TARGET=_blank>http://www.singstat.gov.sg/FACT/SIF/sif3.html</A> <BR>Net users = 17 million = 45 % of population<P><BR>New logic?<P>The Netherlands has 20 varieties of ***** magazines.<BR>India has none. <BR>Therefore no one in India has sex.<BR>Second highest population in the world?<P>Internet usage stats = IT capability?<p>[This message has been edited by shiv (edited 30-07-2001).]

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby shiv » 30 Jul 2001 21:58

Kevin - I see this as an Indian psychological problem - though I have read that some Chinese have some similar hang-ups on some Chinese websites.<P>China is doing things that it wants to and needs to do. India is doing the things that it wants to and needs to do. It irritates me to be told constantly "Look at China - their crap doesn't smell as much" - but the Chinese are not telling me this - it's the Indians.<P>Reminds me of my momma telling me "Look at Kevin. He's such a good boy! How many marks did Kevin get? Did Kevin win? Oh but Kevin will always do better" But I have 100 other bloody students in my class other than Kevin. Will my momma listen?

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Re: The Road to World Power

Postby venkat_r » 03 Aug 2001 00:54

A very good interview with Arun Shourie. See what he has to say about our tax money<P><B>'These are not crown jewels, these are bleeding ulcers'</B><P> <A HREF="http://www.rediff.com/money/2001/aug/02inter.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://www.rediff.com/money/2001/aug/02inter.htm</A> <P>Some exerpts of Interest ....<P>Everything in India -- the legislature, administration and the system as a whole -- has become dysfunctional. So, it takes 30 times the effort and time that is necessary. <P>China is swiftly implementing decisions. But even the Chinese example does not seem to stir anybody. The Chinese are almost done with their initial public offerings. But, we are still debating. <P>We are going through committees. It is this committee, that committee, reference to this or that ministry, secretaries, managements, six or seven unions and so on. And then, there is noise made in Parliament. <P><BR><p>[This message has been edited by venkat_r (edited 03-08-2001).]


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