Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3779
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 07 Jul 2020 04:34

Another of the brown sepoys writing that Aug15 for vaccine introduction date is driven by political consideration

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07 ... next-month

sum
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10086
Joined: 08 May 2007 17:04
Location: (IT-vity && DRDO) nagar

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sum » 08 Jul 2020 10:51

Another day, another sad story in Bluru, supposedly among the better equipped cities:

Another day, another death for want of O2 and response

25 hospitals, ministers, health officials contacted but there was no help or response. The patient died after nine hours for want of O2 and critical care


Unable to copy paste. Please read in link

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4855
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 08 Jul 2020 15:39

Is fatigue affecting those on the frontline in Bluru? Here is a hospital with ICU beds wanting to help but there is no staff. The doctor holding down the fort is begging for help.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1303682/once-model-states-suffer-response-fatigue-as-covid-19-surges-in-india

Once-model states suffer response fatigue as COVID-19 surges in India


BANGALORE — Clad in personal protective gear, Dr Taha Mateen is seen standing in an intensive care unit for Covid-19 patients in HBS hospital in Bangalore.

Facing the camera, he says: “I am getting calls from people saying their fathers are breathless, their daughters are breathless and they are not able to find beds in Bangalore.”

The machines beep around him. “Look around me. I have beds, I have oxygen beds, I have ventilators, I have all the equipment. I have another 30 beds like this but I don’t have doctors working here. Please, I need you for six hours a day. It is my fervent request,” he says in a voice choking in emotion.

The city of Bangalore, where Dr Mateen works, was a model for the response to Covid-19 in India just last week. But infections have doubled in the first six days of July, crossing 10,000. With about 1,000 new infections a day, the famed tech city is now gripped by confusion about bed availability, disappearing medical staff, and falling rates of testing.

...


Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 08 Jul 2020 17:32

WHO acknowledges 'evidence emerging' of airborne spread of COVID-19

Great...and add our highly dense urban settings along with poor infra in supposedly better equipped cities...

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 08 Jul 2020 23:04

https://twitter.com/drriteshmalik/statu ... 4074416129

COVID IS NEARER TO YOU THAN YOU THINK: A personal update, last month me & 4 other members of my family, my father
@drravimalik , mother, wife & sister turned covid +. All 5 of us are doctors & got exposed at our hospital @radixhealthcare which is treating Covid patients. (1/n)


HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE (HCQ): My mother took HCQ as prophylaxis whereas my father didn’t, my fathers infection was 15 times more severe than my father. I think HCQ as a prophylaxis is a must for all HCW, but pls do an ECG before each dose & consult your doctor if you have heart cndtn



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1278 ... 16129.html

This was the most horrific birthday(14 Jun)of my life wen I saw my dads lungs clogging with opacities also called White Out Lung (covid),We took a call of starting REMDESIVIR(Anti Viral),DEXAMETHASONE(Steroids)& TOCLIZUMAB(IL6 inhibhitors),as I was worried about cytokinin storm

These 3 drugs worked like magic, & within 72 hours on June 17th 2020, on my dads birthday, his lungs started clearing out & he started showing drastic improvements. Now both my parents are back home & on road to healthy recovery, with my parents resuming their work. Family WhatsA

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1499
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 08 Jul 2020 23:55

chola wrote:Is fatigue affecting those on the frontline in Bluru? Here is a hospital with ICU beds wanting to help but there is no staff. The doctor holding down the fort is begging for help.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1303682/once-model-states-suffer-response-fatigue-as-covid-19-surges-in-india

Once-model states suffer response fatigue as COVID-19 surges in India


BANGALORE — Clad in personal protective gear, Dr Taha Mateen is seen standing in an intensive care unit for Covid-19 patients in HBS hospital in Bangalore.

Facing the camera, he says: “I am getting calls from people saying their fathers are breathless, their daughters are breathless and they are not able to find beds in Bangalore.”

The machines beep around him. “Look around me. I have beds, I have oxygen beds, I have ventilators, I have all the equipment. I have another 30 beds like this but I don’t have doctors working here. Please, I need you for six hours a day. It is my fervent request,” he says in a voice choking in emotion.

The city of Bangalore, where Dr Mateen works, was a model for the response to Covid-19 in India just last week. But infections have doubled in the first six days of July, crossing 10,000. With about 1,000 new infections a day, the famed tech city is now gripped by confusion about bed availability, disappearing medical staff, and falling rates of testing.

...



Fatigue and a whole host of bad policies and i don't think Karnataka is an exception here. Quarantining everyone who has tested positive in a government care facility knowing all too well how broken our public healthcare system is may not be the best approach. It worked initially when the cases where low but now with 20k to 25k new cases, there simply is no space to safely quarantine and care for everyone who has tested positive. The other problem is with testing itself and i am stating this based on talking to people who tested "positive" first hand and not hear say. Some people i know were called to the local govt facility because of contact with someone else who had tested positive. These individuals displayed no signs and are very healthy but then the test results came positive. They were then asked to quarantine in government facility with zero care, no basic amenities , and forget about HCQ they weren't even given a paracetamol. After 2 weeks they were allowed to go home and that was the end of their ordeal. The government needs to do random second round of testing on a percentage of people whom the initial test showed up as "positive". I fear there are a lot of false "positives" given the backlog of tests pending in government labs. Also, in many town a great many doctors have been asked to self-quarantine even after their tests came negative because they had treated someone who was positive. This means there is a further reduction of critical primary care facilities, nursing homes etc.

Also, the whole practice of putting stickers on the doors, flags on roof tops saying someone is quarantining needs to be stopped asap. In a society such as ours it is increasing the stigma and mental trauma even in those who are not positive but are quarantining because of contact. Begin incentivizing private nursing facilities, hospitals and doctors to treat covid patients. Allow all private labs to gain access to covid test kits. The way we are dealing with this situation will wreck not just our economy but also the hardwork and sacrifice done in the first 2 months of this pandemic.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 09 Jul 2020 07:51

Ambar wrote:Also, in many town a great many doctors have been asked to self-quarantine even after their tests came negative because they had treated someone who was positive. This means there is a further reduction of critical primary care facilities, nursing homes etc.

Yes, the above reason is why many doctors are calling for another immediate lock down in BLR. They are fearing a decrease in number of HCW due to rising infections & quarantine and with the influx of patients rising, severe shortage of staff is imminent. But BSY is all against another lock down. He fears more about economy (or the revival of it post-lock down) than infections. He believes infections can be managed but economy cannot...

Really bad to hear about apathy in Govt. Covid Care Center...I think still the BBMP process of testing, transporting & hospitalizing a positive person is not streamlined enough. Lot of confusion remains and with rising cases and low resources (Both human & equipment), delays are piling up.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1205
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nandakumar » 09 Jul 2020 12:17

Zynda wrote:
Ambar wrote:Also, in many town a great many doctors have been asked to self-quarantine even after their tests came negative because they had treated someone who was positive. This means there is a further reduction of critical primary care facilities, nursing homes etc.

Yes, the above reason is why many doctors are calling for another immediate lock down in BLR. They are fearing a decrease in number of HCW due to rising infections & quarantine and with the influx of patients rising, severe shortage of staff is imminent. But BSY is all against another lock down. He fears more about economy (or the revival of it post-lock down) than infections. He believes infections can be managed but economy cannot...

Really bad to hear about apathy in Govt. Covid Care Center...I think still the BBMP process of testing, transporting & hospitalizing a positive person is not streamlined enough. Lot of confusion remains and with rising cases and low resources (Both human & equipment), delays are piling up.

Can you clarify why the number of HCW should come down compared to say last month? I know there is a fatigue factor at work here. But even so wouldn't they report back to work after a few days?

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4855
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 09 Jul 2020 16:02

The numbers are frightful, 106 doctors died from covid before April 15. Things are many times worse now. How many have died since?

So it might not be just fatigue. These brave souls on the frontline are taking real casualties.

The stress and psychological damage of being in a warzone setting could be taking a toll on top of that from actual infections. There were suicides.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/070720/ima-data-shows-covid-19-killed-106-doctors-in-india-till-april-15.html


IMA data shows Covid-19 killed 106 doctors in India till April 15

DECCAN CHRONICLE. | KANIZA GARARI
Published Jul 7, 2020, 12:38 pm IST

Hyderabad: One hundred and six doctors have died in India due to Covid-19 till April 15, when data was last compiled. The case fatality rate is 6.1 per cent due to the high viral load because of repeated exposure while treating patients. Twenty-five nurses and other healthcare providers have succumbed to the disease.

Two nurses and two doctors died in road accidents due to mental and physical fatigue of infection. Five nurses and one doctor committee suicide due to stress and the stigma of contracting Covid 19.

...

These deaths also include those have been sudden and without any underlying illness. The deaths in those below 40 years of age are 21 per cent, below 50 years of age 29.6 per cent and below 60 years of age 55.5 per cent.

...

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4855
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 09 Jul 2020 16:22

There is also morale. HCW are fighting for everyone's lives but many are not even paid on time. How can you go into the hospital every day, putting yourself and everyone close to you at risk and not getting the means to provide for your family?

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-kasturba-hospital-salaries-coronavirus-6497461/

At Delhi’s Kasturba Hospital, a wait for salaries

Published: July 9, 2020 12:05:48 pm

...

A senior resident in the Pathology department, Dr Kumar is among the 45 junior doctors who haven’t been paid for the last two months. “We have never said no to work. We never went on any strike. We know that if we go on a strike, all patients will suffer. But if this continues, we might have to resign. What is the point of working without salary,” he asks.



https://m.hindustantimes.com/chandigarh/radiologists-working-sans-salaries-for-three-months-in-amritsar-gmch/story-X7nBtd7WaZSEBDDqnnUwwJ.html

Radiologists working sans salaries for three months in Amritsar GMCH

...
Radiologists at Government Medical College and Hospital (GMCH), Amritsar, have not been paid salaries for the last three months even as they are working seven days a week, amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

...

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1499
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 09 Jul 2020 18:18

nandakumar wrote:
Zynda wrote:Yes, the above reason is why many doctors are calling for another immediate lock down in BLR. They are fearing a decrease in number of HCW due to rising infections & quarantine and with the influx of patients rising, severe shortage of staff is imminent. But BSY is all against another lock down. He fears more about economy (or the revival of it post-lock down) than infections. He believes infections can be managed but economy cannot...

Really bad to hear about apathy in Govt. Covid Care Center...I think still the BBMP process of testing, transporting & hospitalizing a positive person is not streamlined enough. Lot of confusion remains and with rising cases and low resources (Both human & equipment), delays are piling up.

Can you clarify why the number of HCW should come down compared to say last month? I know there is a fatigue factor at work here. But even so wouldn't they report back to work after a few days?


Because of two reasons (a) The continuing practice of quarantining of healthcare workers for 2 weeks each time they come in contact with someone who has tested positive for covid and (b) Because many healthcare workers are now worried that with rapid increase in cases they may contract the virus themselves, so they are not showing up for work(both in private sector and in government) out of precaution.

While the situation in India is alarming, the recovery rate has been good in most cases. Dragging everyone who tested positive to a government facility is unwise, and hence we are witnessing the entire system crumble as there are no beds, no oxygen tanks, no staff to care for others, be it for serious covid cases, motor-accident victims or those who need immediate medical assistance for any other reason. I don't think repeated lockdowns will help either, infact reopening much of the economy while bringing in the private healthcare into the picture in testing and treatment might be far more helpful, while allowing people to resume their normal lives.

From what we've seen over the last 5 months this virus is not going away anytime soon, so how long can governments hold back normal life and economics, continue mass quarantine, contact tracing and statistics upkeeping ? Need to have a sustainable treatment plan as well as an exit plan to go back to normalcy.

Lastly, from my own personal experience the whole practice of putting flags/signs outside someones house that one is under quarantine is incredibly stupid. From people being thrown out of their homes by their landlords, ditched by their neighbors, stigmatized because they had come in contact with someone who had the virus, and being refused service at grocers, the governments should have seen this coming and secured the privacy of those individuals who are under quarantine instead of advertising their state to the world.

sajo
BRFite
Posts: 251
Joined: 01 Mar 2019 17:01

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 09 Jul 2020 18:39

I think people are forcibly being dragged to quarantine facilities because they know there is no hope of keeping them home based just on instructions.

Also, those who havent already, please check the latest Version of Arogya Setu App, you can see how many of those who have been in your proximity over past 30 days are high risk.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 09 Jul 2020 20:47

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/beng ... s-minister
Bengaluru’s Chinnaswamy Stadium To Be Turned Into Covid-19 Care Centre, ‘Bengaluru Is Safe’ Assures Minister

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2423
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 09 Jul 2020 21:04

US splendidly on track to hit 1 lakh cases a day :(. Can't even do "grin and bear it" on the case count (which would be the sensible thing to do if it were just cases which were rising), because deaths are also rising.

Hopeful signs - many states are maintaining positivity rate <5% for days together (this being the criterion for declaring a state "safe" (at least - as safe as it gets right now)). NY state, which was hardest hit, now has a positivity rate of ~1% and is maintaining it, and deaths are in single digits to low 2 digits per day. So the state does seem to have got to herd immunity and beyond. But if every state has to go through what NY state went through, that will be a Mega Problem.

In India - what do you do? If you don't hype up the disease, nobody takes it seriously. If you overdo the cautioning, that leads to stigmatization and over-quarantining. Ideally, people would have some sense, and could be told - "see, this disease isn't that bad, but there are reasons for being cautious" and they would just respect that. Now because of the hype around the disease, people freak out as soon as somebody near them tests positive, which is the worst thing to do. I keep hearing - "OMG, now these three people in our neighborhood have it!!" Okay, they have it, but how are they doing? Is it serious for them, if so, how many are dying? And what the *hic* is the rest of the neighborhood doing to help those guys? Nope, simply can't get those details, because nobody cares beyond "that guy has the disease, stay away from him!" India has a pretty good recovery rate, and deaths seem to be minimal compared to the case count, and especially compared to the rest of the world. In grocery stores people recklessly brush against you, breathe or cough on you, neglect the masking, and then they ostracize the unfortunate few who get it.

Actually, if the WHO criterion of <5% positivity rate for two weeks were applied, India might be close to qualifying as "safe" (it seems to be around 7% to 8% in India right now).

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 10 Jul 2020 00:07

Bangalore Covid beds availability matrix is finally up online

http://arogya.karnataka.gov.in/sast/fms/view.php

Bookmark it...I dunno how accurate the numbers are though!

sajo
BRFite
Posts: 251
Joined: 01 Mar 2019 17:01

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 10 Jul 2020 15:50

Total lockdown in Pune district starting from the 12th. Exact terms not known yet. I think more cities will follow suit. Pune district has had more than 33k COVID cases already.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 589
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 11 Jul 2020 11:57

China’s New Swine Flu Has “Pandemic Potential”

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4855
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 11 Jul 2020 11:57

Fauci's right, we're well on our way to 1 lakh a day in the US.

70K yesterday and the GOP netas are going Rambo against testing and facemasks.

This thing is not going to stop. Fauci has been sidelined, undercut and ignored by Trump for months now.

I think the plan is for herd immunity but it is not led by medical experts but by politicians. I really don't how things will turn out. It is better in the Northeast where I'm at but it is just a matter of time. Driving across state lines is ubiquitous here. Just buckle down and wait out the storm.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/first-time-u-s-records-more-70-000-new-coronavirus-n1233556
For first time, U.S. records more than 70,000 new coronavirus cases in single day

July 11, 2020, 12:58 AM EDT
By Dennis Romero and Austin Mullen

The United States saw another record day for new coronavirus cases, surpassing 70,000 for the first time, according to an NBC News tally Friday.


https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5f058341c5b63a72c33ade5e
GOP State Lawmaker Demands Americans ‘STOP GETTING TESTED’ For Coronavirus

Nino Vitale railed against wearing masks and ranted about “living in a dictatorship” in a Facebook post.

By Lee Moran
07/08/2020 04:59 AM ET

A GOP state lawmaker in Ohio ― one of several states currently seeing a spike in new coronavirus infections ― urged constituents to “STOP GETTING TESTED” for COVID-19 in a Facebook post on Tuesday.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/10/trump-fauci-covid-19-coronavirus-cases
Fauci says he hasn’t briefed Trump in two months as Covid-19 cases rise

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 11 Jul 2020 17:09

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... ail-to-act
A plasma shot could prevent coronavirus. But feds and makers won’t act, scientists say


It might be the next best thing to a coronavirus vaccine.

Scientists have devised a way to use the antibody-rich blood plasma of COVID-19 survivors for an upper-arm injection that they say could inoculate people against the virus for months.

Using technology that’s been proven effective in preventing other diseases such as hepatitis A, the injections would be administered to high-risk healthcare workers, nursing home patients, or even at public drive-through sites — potentially protecting millions of lives, the doctors and other experts say.

The two scientists who spearheaded the proposal — an 83-year-old shingles researcher and his counterpart, an HIV gene therapy expert — have garnered widespread support from leading blood and immunology specialists, including those at the center of the nation’s COVID-19 plasma research.


But the idea exists only on paper. Federal officials have twice rejected requests to discuss the proposal, and pharmaceutical companies — even acknowledging the likely efficacy of the plan — have declined to design or manufacture the shots, according to a Times investigation. The lack of interest in launching development of immunity shots comes amid heightened scrutiny of the federal government’s sluggish pandemic response.


There is little disagreement that the idea holds promise; the dispute is over the timing. Federal health officials and industry groups say the development of plasma-based therapies should focus on treating people who are already sick, not on preventing infections in those who are still healthy.


But scientists who question the delay argue that the immunity shots are easy to scale up and should enter clinical trials immediately. They say that until there’s a vaccine, the shots offer the only plausible method for preventing potentially millions of infections at a critical moment in the pandemic.

“Beyond being a lost opportunity, this is a real head-scratcher,” said Dr. Michael Joyner, a Mayo Clinic researcher who leads a program sponsored by the Food and Drug Administration to capitalize on coronavirus antibodies from COVID-19 survivors. “It seems obvious.”

The use of so-called convalescent plasma has already become widespread. More than 28,000 patients have already received the IV treatment, and preliminary data suggest that the method is safe. Researchers are also looking at whether the IV drip products would prevent new infections from taking root.

The antibodies in plasma can be concentrated and delivered to patients through a type of drug called immune globulin, or IG, which can be given through either an IV drip or a shot. IG shots have for decades been used to prevent an array of diseases; the IG shot that prevents hepatitis A was first licensed in 1944. They are available to treat patients who have recently been exposed to hepatitis B, tetanus, varicella and rabies.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Jul 2020 17:50

Isn't the above what Dr. Vishal of HCG Cancer Center is trying to do? I do hope some org in India at least will be interested in developing plasma shots.

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1499
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 11 Jul 2020 18:11

Trump despite all the nonsense he spews has a point about the US death rate, the CFR is now less than half of what it was in Apr-May period despite the rapid increase in number of cases. I am surprised at the behavior of this virus, its like a forest fire that starts at one point and progressively moves to scorch other areas, but then it begins to die down first in the areas where it originated. We see this in South East Asia where Vietnam, Cambodia, China (who knows), Japan, South Korea etc. are relatively normal now, Italy, UK, Spain, Netherlands, France and Germany are all stable now with normal life is resuming in much of Europe. Even in US, after ravaging through NY, NJ, CT,MA areas it now seems to have moved on to the southern and sunshine belt. Similarly India, South Africa and much of south america did well in the early days but are now on top of worst effected countries list. Atleast looking at other regions the peak seems to last for 2 to 3 months, so hopefully the numbers will begin to drop in India by end of August.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Jul 2020 19:34

Zynda wrote:Bangalore Covid beds availability matrix is finally up online

http://arogya.karnataka.gov.in/sast/fms/view.php

Bookmark it...I dunno how accurate the numbers are though!

So it seems like the number of beds that reflect on the site are completely not accurate at all. A reporter from CNN-IBN tried to call up the hospitals to inquire about beds availability...most of them did not answer the phone. In fact, many of the phone numbers were either fake and/or not answered. Manipal hospital flatly refused to admit a patient who was told that they are experiencing breathlessness. The reporter reminded the hospital that they should admit the patient regardless of Covid status since they are experiencing breathlessness per order of Karnataka Govt and yet the lady just told to call up BBMP War room and hung up.



What frustrates me with this Govt is that, none of the above mechanisms have been streamlined or issues sorted out. And yet they have the gall to come out and ask BLR residents not to panic. I am not sure even today, the mechanism is streamlined or a patient is guaranteed a fighting chance. Also they are not imposing a lock down to slow the spread while they try to sort these issues out. Anyways, they had 3 months to prepare, they sat pretty and as usual, citizens are left to bear the brunt. Last week I think the GoKar said they wanted to prepare by ordering equipment but the KAS folks misled them or blocked their requests citing that BLR/Karnataka will not see high cases as other cities and not to make expensive purchases when state is facing an economic crunch.

chola wrote:I think the plan is for herd immunity but it is not led by medical experts but by politicians.

Yep...the above seems to be plan for Bangalore at least.

At least in India, Govt is announcing & urging people to wear masks, maintain hand hygiene & practice social distancing (which is not feasible always, especially @ work). I see aged people (50+) who really struggle to breathe with mask on. So many a times, I see them wearing a mask but leaving their nose exposed, especially during walking and when they have to speak for extended periods of time. Plus wearing a mask forces some one to speak louder than they have to, adding to addition exertion. Also, people who do exerting work, especially, labourers, do not usually wear a mask. And it is difficult to ask them to wear a mask, as they will cover up their face when told but remove mask 2 seconds later.
Last edited by Zynda on 11 Jul 2020 19:43, edited 2 times in total.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Jul 2020 19:41

Dr. Ratnadip, how is Fabiflu performing? Is its usage wide spread currently in India? I don't think its usage is very wide at least in BLR. I think still HCQ is being prescribed here.

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1910
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Jul 2020 21:26

I think some sense was knocked in to BSY's head. BLR Urban & Rural districts to go in to a complete lock down from July 14th to 22nd. Ideally should have been extended till month end but this is a start

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2423
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 11 Jul 2020 21:35

chola wrote:Fauci's right, we're well on our way to 1 lakh a day in the US.


I'm beginning to doubt it'll level off even at 1 lakh a day. That would actually be a good thing, if the deaths weren't also rising - hope they don't go back to April levels, but right now, all bets are off. Many states will have hospital crises again.

These people don't seem to understand this "herd immunity" thing very well (the politicians). The links I posted earlier showed that COVID has large transmission and susceptibility inhomogeniety. That works to reduce the HIT, i.e., even with an R0 of 2.4, the HIT could be as low as 10% to 20%. In fact, France, which has been open for 4 weeks now (and where antibody testing showed that only 4% of the country had been infected) is doing fine.

But then all the risky behavior in the name of "attaining HIT" - like the COVID parties for instance. These will greatly increase the R0. And the HIT goes way higher. The other thing that risky behavior does, is to increase the number of super-spreaders (reducing the inhomogeniety in the process). This is because, whether or not somebody is a super-spreader, seems to be correlated with infection load and subsequent viral load upon contracting the disease. Again, the HIT shoots up. The third thing that risky behavior does, is to increase the death rate, and also the rate of severe infections. Death rate and number of severe infections depend again on infection and viral load.

Risky behavior does spread the disease faster, supposedly allowing herd immunity to be achieved earlier, but the vast increase in the HIT itself will negate that effect, and a lot more people will end up dead.

I've been trying to fight this notion that people have, that this "Herd Immunity Threshold" is some fixed number, set in stone, and you just have to get to that level, and then everything will be fine. Like breasting the tape in a 100 m dash. Not at all, the HIT is variable, and depends greatly on the behavior of the population. By modulating its behavior, the population can reduce the HIT way down, or boost it up. The other misconception is that the infection will come to a dead halt when the HIT is reached. Nope, the infection will START SLOWING DOWN at the point of HIT. How much further it will go, depends on the infection momentum. For example, if the HIT is 60%, the eventual infected fraction could be 70%, 80%, even 95%, depending on how much momentum has been built up. Guess what risky behavior does to that momentum? So it is entirely conceivable that some parts of the world will stop being disease hot-spots when the infected fraction hits 5%, whereas other parts of the world could go all the way to 95%.

It's like a speeding truck. Only an extremely naive person would believe that as soon as one hit the brakes, the truck would come to a dead halt. Nope - the truck will go much farther, and how much farther it will go, depends on road conditions (population behavior), how much momentum it has gathered (previous pace of infection), and a whole host of other factors, all of which are modified for the worse by risky behavior.

It seems the NE corner of the USA is the safest place to be right now (if you're in the US). NY State is maintaining positivity rates of ~1%, and the rest of the region seems similar, with several states being at least <5% positivity rate. I'm inclined to believe these states will stay that way, several of them have already borne the brunt of the disease. In fact:

Some parts of NY might have attained 60% infection rate

Ambar
BRFite
Posts: 1499
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 11 Jul 2020 22:14

Zynda wrote:I think some sense was knocked in to BSY's head. BLR Urban & Rural districts to go in to a complete lock down from July 14th to 22nd. Ideally should have been extended till month end but this is a start


I'm not sure if that will help. How long can we shut down large metros ? At some point when the cities are reopened the cases will once again start to rise and at the same time many of the ruined businesses will permanently shutdown adding to an already worsening economic crisis. I don't think we have a solution to this crisis until someone invents a vaccine or a drug that works atleast for 95% of those that are infected or people build immunity. The way things have progressed in the world i think its the last option that's our best bet.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2661
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 12 Jul 2020 01:08

Chinese virologist who fled Hong Kong claims China and WHO adviser knew about the virus long before they made it public
https://www.opindia.com/2020/07/chinese ... ng-before/
In a startling revelation, Chinese virologist Li-Meng Yan, who fled Hong Kong in the wake of the new security law enacted by Beijing that grants it sweeping powers to quell dissenting voices, claimed that China was well-aware of the deadly coronavirus and virulence of the deadly virus long before it said it did and asserted that the WHO advisor Professor Malik Peiris did nothing to alert others despite knowing about the virulence of the virus.

In an exclusive interview with Fox News, Yan contended that the research that she was doing at the start of the pandemic that could have saved millions of lives was overlooked by her supervisors, some of them amongst the best in the world in this field.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1205
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nandakumar » 12 Jul 2020 10:37

Thanks Ambar for those insights. It is easy to be critical of the behaviour of health care workers especially nurses and ward boys. But the odds under which they have carried on with their duties all these days is really praiseworthy. More so when you read news reports that State governments have been slipping up on salary payments because their tax receipts have taken a hit. It is bad enough that they are putting themselves at risk day in day out. If on top of it they also have worry about paying grocery and other incidental expenses, something has to give.

Sonugn
BRFite
Posts: 346
Joined: 13 Jul 2005 12:03
Location: DeceptyKon Workshop

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sonugn » 12 Jul 2020 11:17

New MIT Study Says India Likely To Have 2.87 Lakh Covid 19 Cases Daily By End Of 2021
A new study by researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has predicted that India may see 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by the end of 2021, in case there is no vaccine or effective drug for the virus. According to a report by IANS, the study done by researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT's Sloan School of Management, also said that there might be 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths globally by spring 2021. The findings were based on a mathematical model used to predict the trends of infectious diseases.

The researchers used a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model which is also used by epidemiologists, to calculate the transmission of Covid-19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people). The model tracked community transmission by estimating the date of the introduction of patient zero for each country. It tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered state in each country.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23071
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 12 Jul 2020 19:35

Image

Suresh S
BRFite
Posts: 790
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suresh S » 12 Jul 2020 23:00

Heard on twitter today. Amitabh batchan and son tested positive for covid-19. Why are they closing Rekha,s house? :D

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 13 Jul 2020 04:45

https://whdh.com/news/coronavirus-is-ge ... -suggests/

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 13 Jul 2020 04:49

False news DELETED
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 13 Jul 2020 05:20, edited 1 time in total.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 13 Jul 2020 05:17

Deleted ...
Last edited by vijayk on 13 Jul 2020 07:04, edited 1 time in total.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 13 Jul 2020 05:21

^Thanks VijayK I have deleted my post,

My apologies !

Rishi_Tri
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 13 Feb 2017 14:49

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishi_Tri » 13 Jul 2020 06:32

Returned to India on 1st July on Vande Bharat flight from New York.

Notes on travel and quarantine:

1.Flights can be booked on AirIndia.In after registration. Cancellation is over phone by getting in touch with Air India .. India contact center.
2.Temperature check, passport and declaration check for all.
3. My flight was the only flight getting boarded from JFK. The airport was otherwise completely empty and totally closed but for a couple of coffee and small items places.
4. The flight was totally full. People were leaving with whatever they could gather. I saw families with 10-15 check in bags and of course a bachelor with his 65'' TV. It is almost like people leaving Pakistan for India during partition with whatever they could grab and ride on, only in this case aboard an Air India flight.
5. Almost all leaving were young couples, young families leaving US perhaps for good for whatever reason. Its almost an exodus that shall be talked about in years to come.
6. Every passenger seat had pre packaged food under their seats. There was no service and any interaction with flight crew was only for something absolutely necessary. Water was placed in service areas for people to drink.
7. Upon landing in Delhi, and am sure elsewhere too, you are formed into groups. CISF personnel essentially make you move through different formalities. If you are lucky you could be through in 2 hours. If not, it could take up to 9 hours as it did in my case.
8. The last step is you being interviewed by a Para Medic on medical condition. After that its either home quarantine or hotel quarantine. I chose Hotel Quarantine for first 7 days as my dad is senior citizen.
9. As I chose Hotel Quarantine, I was asked to board a DTC bus for my hotel. Though totally packed with luggage, and you doing all your hauling yourself, it was fun riding DTC bus late in the night, after so many years. The bus was piloted (not driven) by a Delhi Police Sub Inspector.
10. I chose to stay in one of 5 stars as the room rates were steal - Rs 4000 for single occupancy / Rs 4800 for double occupancy.
11. Almost everyone in the Hotel Quarantine was again young.
12. The hotel was strict about quarantine - you are not allowed to venture out of your room, the lifts are manually operated and you need to call the operator if you need to use the lift which you are not allowed to do in first place , temperature / oxygen levels / blood pressure / are measured daily.
13. Food is placed at the door of your room for you to pick up. You can of course request some other services such as laundry / ala carte menu but nothing fancy.
14. Your passport is taken from you at the Hotel Quarantine registration at the airport. It is handed back to you the day you are to leave.
15. Hotel gave Veg and Non Veg food option. I would have enjoyed the spice / hot level in the food as a 20 something.
16. Many hotel employees were returning to work after being at home for months. They really wanted you to come back after this craziness gets over.
17. The room was clean and the internet was perfect.

Delhi, the city:

1. When I was planning to fly to Delhi, the city seemed like a disaster with almost 4000 cases / day about three weeks ago. As of yesterday, it has come down to 1500 odd and thankfully 1000s of hospital beds are lying vacant.
2. Judging by traffic, the city is perhaps as 15-20% of pre China Virus levels. US cities had many times more traffic. The economic affects of this China Virus shall last for years leave alone for a few quarters.
3. The sky is blue, the sunsets are pink / deep red, there are lots of people talking / strolling on the 'chats' of their flats etc but you know, these are not normal times.

On Bengaluru:

1. I shall eventually head out to Bengaluru. Karnataka, Bengaluru has been the best managed state / city in the whole country.
2. Over the course of last few weeks they have accepted arrivals from the whole world, let alone India. Thus the increase in cases is all but expected. Even then, Karnataka is at 2800 / day and Bengaluru at 1500 / day. Bengaluru has announced lockdown from 14th July to 22nd July and it should help.
3. BSY understands how deep the economic impact of this China Virus shall go and he is balancing the economic disaster gradually setting itself in ground and the need for public health. He has an uneviable task at hand and has managed very well so far.

More than anything else, it shall be the economic affects of this virus that shall impact our lives for years to come. The true battle has not even started.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4759
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 13 Jul 2020 07:05

Rishi_Tri wrote:Returned to India on 1st July on Vande Bharat flight from New York.

Notes on travel and quarantine:

1.Flights can be booked on AirIndia.In after registration. Cancellation is over phone by getting in touch with Air India .. India contact center.
2.Temperature check, passport and declaration check for all.
3. My flight was the only flight getting boarded from JFK. The airport was otherwise completely empty and totally closed but for a couple of coffee and small items places.
4. The flight was totally full. People were leaving with whatever they could gather. I saw families with 10-15 check in bags and of course a bachelor with his 65'' TV. It is almost like people leaving Pakistan for India during partition with whatever they could grab and ride on, only in this case aboard an Air India flight.
5. Almost all leaving were young couples, young families leaving US perhaps for good for whatever reason. Its almost an exodus that shall be talked about in years to come.
6. Every passenger seat had pre packaged food under their seats. There was no service and any interaction with flight crew was only for something absolutely necessary. Water was placed in service areas for people to drink.
7. Upon landing in Delhi, and am sure elsewhere too, you are formed into groups. CISF personnel essentially make you move through different formalities. If you are lucky you could be through in 2 hours. If not, it could take up to 9 hours as it did in my case.
8. The last step is you being interviewed by a Para Medic on medical condition. After that its either home quarantine or hotel quarantine. I chose Hotel Quarantine for first 7 days as my dad is senior citizen.
9. As I chose Hotel Quarantine, I was asked to board a DTC bus for my hotel. Though totally packed with luggage, and you doing all your hauling yourself, it was fun riding DTC bus late in the night, after so many years. The bus was piloted (not driven) by a Delhi Police Sub Inspector.
10. I chose to stay in one of 5 stars as the room rates were steal - Rs 4000 for single occupancy / Rs 4800 for double occupancy.
11. Almost everyone in the Hotel Quarantine was again young.
12. The hotel was strict about quarantine - you are not allowed to venture out of your room, the lifts are manually operated and you need to call the operator if you need to use the lift which you are not allowed to do in first place , temperature / oxygen levels / blood pressure / are measured daily.
13. Food is placed at the door of your room for you to pick up. You can of course request some other services such as laundry / ala carte menu but nothing fancy.
14. Your passport is taken from you at the Hotel Quarantine registration at the airport. It is handed back to you the day you are to leave.
15. Hotel gave Veg and Non Veg food option. I would have enjoyed the spice / hot level in the food as a 20 something.
16. Many hotel employees were returning to work after being at home for months. They really wanted you to come back after this craziness gets over.
17. The room was clean and the internet was perfect.

Delhi, the city:

1. When I was planning to fly to Delhi, the city seemed like a disaster with almost 4000 cases / day about three weeks ago. As of yesterday, it has come down to 1500 odd and thankfully 1000s of hospital beds are lying vacant.
2. Judging by traffic, the city is perhaps as 15-20% of pre China Virus levels. US cities had many times more traffic. The economic affects of this China Virus shall last for years leave alone for a few quarters.
3. The sky is blue, the sunsets are pink / deep red, there are lots of people talking / strolling on the 'chats' of their flats etc but you know, these are not normal times.

On Bengaluru:

1. I shall eventually head out to Bengaluru. Karnataka, Bengaluru has been the best managed state / city in the whole country.
2. Over the course of last few weeks they have accepted arrivals from the whole world, let alone India. Thus the increase in cases is all but expected. Even then, Karnataka is at 2800 / day and Bengaluru at 1500 / day. Bengaluru has announced lockdown from 14th July to 22nd July and it should help.
3. BSY understands how deep the economic impact of this China Virus shall go and he is balancing the economic disaster gradually setting itself in ground and the need for public health. He has an uneviable task at hand and has managed very well so far.

More than anything else, it shall be the economic affects of this virus that shall impact our lives for years to come. The true battle has not even started.


Thanks ... This is really good

sudarshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2423
Joined: 09 Aug 2008 08:56

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 13 Jul 2020 09:20

^ Ji, could you not quote the entire long post just to add a "thanks" at the end?

Rishi_Tri, thanks for sharing. So anybody who boards a flight right now is on their own as far as meals go?

Rishi_Tri wrote:3. BSY understands how deep the economic impact of this China Virus shall go and he is balancing the economic disaster gradually setting itself in ground and the need for public health. He has an uneviable task at hand and has managed very well so far.

More than anything else, it shall be the economic affects of this virus that shall impact our lives for years to come. The true battle has not even started.


Most people haven't begun to comprehend the extent of damage to the economy. They think it is blasphemous to be "thinking of money" right now. The economy is life, a lot of people are going to be dying in the years to come because of economic hardship.

Yeddyurappa might understand this, but he has no choice. It makes most sense right now to protect the vulnerable (especially the elderly) and let the rest of the productive economy go on, with adequate precautions (social distancing). People are freaking about the wrong metric - case counts. It is the numbers of hospitalizations, severe cases, and deaths which need watching, but hospitalization and severe case rates are not even being reported in most places. The stats on median ages of deaths and age profiles of deaths are extremely telling, the stats on fraction of deaths which occur in nursing homes, even more so. Those are the segments of the population which need special protection. General lockdowns are going to severely damage the economy.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3883
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 13 Jul 2020 15:07

Looks like my hypothesis that people who live on higher altitude seem to have better chance of survival is true. Ladakh has 1k+ cases yet only 1 death.

NE and mountainous region seem to have fared better. Clean air and mountains. States who like their sweets, Gujarat & Bengal high death rate.

Cities with their pollution face the burnt as well.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4855
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 13 Jul 2020 15:20

Rishi_Tri wrote:Returned to India on 1st July on Vande Bharat flight from New York.

Notes on travel and quarantine:

1.Flights can be booked on AirIndia.In after registration. Cancellation is over phone by getting in touch with Air India .. India contact center.
2.Temperature check, passport and declaration check for all.
3. My flight was the only flight getting boarded from JFK. The airport was otherwise completely empty and totally closed but for a couple of coffee and small items places.
4. The flight was totally full. People were leaving with whatever they could gather. I saw families with 10-15 check in bags and of course a bachelor with his 65'' TV. It is almost like people leaving Pakistan for India during partition with whatever they could grab and ride on, only in this case aboard an Air India flight.
5. Almost all leaving were young couples, young families leaving US perhaps for good for whatever reason. Its almost an exodus that shall be talked about in years to come.


The exodus is not as bad as a few months ago when desis were scrambling to get out. That was during the height of the crisis in New York. During that time, we heard that prices for flights to Inda were over 5000 USD, some at 10000.

But the unease is building again. It is almost palpable in the desi community. As I said before, no matter how bad it might be in India at least the GOI and India's people are united in a goal. Here, there are deliberate divisions. One part of the government is going hammer and tongs against the directives of another part trying desperately to keep a lid on the virus. People are beating each other up over face masks. States are calling for lockdowns again because of exploding infections yet the White House is threatening to punish states that won't re-open schools. It is just confusing and scary.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: A Sharma, ParGha, ranjbe, rpartha and 21 guests