India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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manjgu
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby manjgu » 19 Jul 2020 07:12

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:I hope people here appreciate the deep symbolism behind the Raksha Mantri's visit to Ladakh. Among other things, he was right there on Pangong Tso, probably where his line of sight included Chinese incursions.


Anti Modi posters like Rs_singh are making fun of it. Calling it "politicians doing photo op, chai biskoot."

I dont think rs_singh is anti or pro modi... his posts make lot of sense. .. respect people's opinion .... see different perspectives...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 19 Jul 2020 07:18

^^^ Agree. rs_Singh has been quite measured in his responses and in his modes of dis-agreement. If he has his preferences, but is measured about it, it should be OK in a forum like this. Counter-points have been made (by YIPatel, for example). And to me YIP's response makes sense. I did not see RN Singh's speech but I did see Modi's speech in its entirity and it supports what YIP said. It was telling the troops to get ready (...though they are ready and are waiting.)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Y I Patel » 19 Jul 2020 07:33

Why do retired IA Generals keep saying capture of DBO would fatally weaken India's control over Siachen Glacier?

One of the optical illusions of geography is that we think of Siachen Glacier as being at the source of the Nubra River, and we think of Karakoram Pass as that huge triangle away from it, somewhere to the northeast. How can losing KKP and DBO cause loss of Siachen? Or vice versa? Will PLA launch a blitzkrieg over the hitherto unpassable Saser La and thence to Nubra Valley?

NO.

Here's what can happen.

anupmisra had provided a very useful link to US Army maps a while ago. Study this plate carefully KKP and areas to its north and west

A couple of squares to the northwest of KKP is Yarkhand River. 4 squares to the west of KKP is Shaksgam Pass, and to the NW of Shaksgam Pass is Shaksgam RIver. Travel westwards along the Shaksgam River valley, you will see "camping grounds", and also several glaciers feeding S-N into the river. One of the is Urdok Glacier. Now follow Urdok Glacier to its saddle, and you arrive at... Indira Col.

Harish Kapadia is one of India's most highly regarded mountaineers right now, and he was given permission by IA to mount an expedition - he went up the Shyok River valley, to Gapshan, then to Teram Shehar Glacier (which he describes as a flat plateau), and thence to Siachen Glacier. While near Gapshan, he describes the view over Shaksgam Pass. Shaksgam Pass is one of the lesser known passes on the Silk Route, and it offers a gentle access right to Yarkhand River.

All of this is stuff for you to study in google 3D, now that I have oriented you to the strategic landmarks in the area.

What does this mean? It means that the Chinese have easy, almost motorable access right up to the northern access points to Siachen Glacier. If they try to do anything funny, IA will slaughter them because it controls Shaksgam Pass, which gives easy oversight of Yarkhand River headwaters and Shaksgam Valley. IA of course also guards Teram Shehar plateau, which is the easiest access to the entire glacier. But if India loses control over DBO, then a huge gateway to Siachen Glacier gets opened, and Indian positions on Siachen will be extremely vulnerable to not just a Chinese attack, but to a joint attack by China and the Pakis. That's why DBO protects Siachen, and vice versa.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 19 Jul 2020 07:38

D.Mahesh wrote:
pankajs wrote:a. What....




Voices in your head :roll: don't count as media contacts And media contacts means BS.

Be civil.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 19 Jul 2020 07:47

Y I Patel wrote:India has already crossed a huge mental block in this qualitatively different response to Chinese aggression, and it is wise for PM Modi to make haste slowly. Indira Gandhi waited a full six months after the onset of genocide in East Pakistan despite all the pressures on India at that time. .....
In SAm Manekshaw's book he talks about this...she wanted a war at a time when rainy season was going to start in the Bengal area, at that time rivers become kilometers wide and the whole area turns into a marshy land, not suitable for offensive ops in land warfare. He said that, and they weren't fully convinced (JAgjivan Ram was the defence minister then, and in the room). Sam M. finally said that if troops were to be moved, the trains would not be available to transport harvests across the country and could lead to food shortages in some areas and the politicians would be blamed for this. After this, IG relented and the rest as they say, is history.
Last edited by SriKumar on 19 Jul 2020 07:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 19 Jul 2020 07:48

This is a topic we have discussed / debated quite a lot on this thread. Now here comes an article by someone who, unlike most of us, actually knows what the hell he is talking about, a retired IAF officer who used to be tasked with exactly this job -- planning for air-war campaigns of this nature. His take:

Air War Over Aksai Chin: How China Is At A Great Disadvantage

https://www.indiandefencetimes.com/how-china-is-at-a-great-disadvantage/

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Y I Patel » 19 Jul 2020 07:57

Here's a historical tidbit that give a lot of insight into the geographic connections:

In 1965, the legendary Chewang Rinchen was tasked to protect KKP in case the Chinese tried anything funny during India-Pak hostilities. At that time, Turtuk and Chalunka were with Pak (Rinchen captured them for India in 71). The major Indian base in Nubra valley at that time was... Partapur. Ring a bell? Partapur is now HQ of the Siachen Brigade. So Rinchen started out from Partapur, Sasoma, crossed Saser La (on foot, with his troops), crossed Shyok River in full spate without any casualties (a major achievement in itself), and then trekked upriver in Shyok Valley to DBO. All in record time. Chinese troops saw Indians were there. Along with other factors, this stopped them from trying anything funny.

Later, Col Narinder Kumar started from Partapur on his expedition to Siachen Glacier, and the rest, of course, is history.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jwala » 19 Jul 2020 08:14

Sir,
"Here's a historical tidbit that give a lot of insight into the geographic connections"
:
Really awesome posts; thank you
I think the PM and RM are clear - the riposte will come at a time and place of our choosing.
After the Nov US elections there will be a significant degree of uncertainty of the US posture - even though there is strong bi partisan support. High likelihood of strong support for now. In addition, current President know how strong our PM's influence is on the Indian American diaspora which will play into his support

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 19 Jul 2020 08:59

Gyan wrote:Major Gen Maneckshaw asked for "Nothing". He told Nehru that he was waiting for 18 months to join Action. He went into Operations Room, asked Army to stop withdrawing & start moving forward. Indian Army only lacked "Orders". (SOURCE: His Interview)

Can you please share a link?

I ask this since per Maj Gen DK Palit's book (he was the DMO during '62, the 'ops room' as you put it) and he says that Maj Gen Manekshaw took over the IV Corps and refused to push troops into NEFA (now AR) as he didn't want to provoke the Chinese. This was despite the ceasefire conditions allowing troops up to 20km of either side of the LAC. So, in effect, for some time, there was no Army presence in NEFA and all IV Corps divisions were in the plains of Assam. Apparently, it was Gen Makekshaw's successor in IV Corps HQ who reversed this decision and sent troops forward.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 19 Jul 2020 09:04

arshyam wrote:
Gyan wrote:Major Gen Maneckshaw asked for "Nothing". He told Nehru that he was waiting for 18 months to join Action. He went into Operations Room, asked Army to stop withdrawing & start moving forward. Indian Army only lacked "Orders". (SOURCE: His Interview)

Can you please share a link?

I ask this since per Maj Gen DK Palit's book (he was the DMO during '62, the 'ops room' as you put it) and he says that Maj Gen Manekshaw took over the IV Corps and refused to push troops into NEFA (now AR) as he didn't want to provoke the Chinese. This was despite the ceasefire conditions allowing troops up to 20km of either side of the LAC. So, in effect, for some time, there was no Army presence in NEFA and all IV Corps divisions were in the plains of Assam. Apparently, it was Gen Makekshaw's successor in IV Corps HQ who reversed this decision and sent troops forward.


Here is the link to the documentary on youtube.

A life lived such - Field Marshal Sam Maneckshaw

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 19 Jul 2020 09:16

^^ Thank you.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 19 Jul 2020 09:22

Guddu wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:
Coming to the substance of what has been said, the RM said something important that is butchered in translation, but it is based on swaabhiman (self-respect). He said that if someone insults you, your personal swaabhiman is challenged, and you respond. In this case, he told the soldiers, your motherland's swabhimaan was challenged, and the country has full faith that you will respond appropriately. And he said it within sight of the location of first affront.

Just think for a moment what that symbolism means.

If it was an isolated mention of swaabhiman, that is notable in itself. But, very importantly, the PM himself used the same wording in his address to the nation after the all-party meeting.

At the very least, what this means to me is that this is no longer about the actual incursion or the deceitful manner in which the Chinese have conducted themselves. Unlike previous incursions, this has been taken as an affront that someone has dared to carry out against India. It means that status quo ante is just about maintaining peace for here and now, and even that will not be sufficient unless honor has been satisfied as well. So there are not going to be any face-saving compromises, because they cannot restore the sense of lost honor from the national affront that these actions represent.


I noticed it too. Rajnathsingh ji has used the word "swabhimaan" some 1 month back in an interview too and said more or less the same thing at that time. He had also mentioned that this incursion by Chinese is "different" (bhinn) from before. In Ladakh he made a second strange comment, basically said he was not sure that diplomacy would work (very odd for someone used to saying "kadi ninda" and followed up by saying not even an inch of land will be given to China.

What all this means to me is that India and Modiji has decided that China MUST withdraw and failure to do so will result in military action. We are giving them time for talks to work out, action will be taken at a time of our choosing perhaps Sept/Oct. If this were not so, Modi/Rajnathsingh ji would not be going to the forward areas and raising troop morale. It is important to take action this year, so that the Chinese are on the backfoot. This will also be helpful when India goes for Gilgit-Baltistan and keep the Chinese away. I think China too realizes that CPEC is gone and they are making a back up play in Iran (Chabahar).

If this is true, then the Army via its retired generals sounding soft makes sense. Lull the enemy into stupor and that kind of thing.

I only wonder what responses on the forum would have been between Jun-Nov '71, during which time the Army was seemingly doing nothing while east Pakistan was burning. Some choice epithets against IG and maybe the then Army leadership, with dark references to our '62 rout concluding the Army was timid and what not. Thankfully, there was no social media back then to analyze every little thing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 19 Jul 2020 09:28

^You just typed out exactly what was on my mind.

Ghosts of 1962, refugees poring in by the day, a India barely a quarter century since Independence, we had our economical challenges then - much worse than today. I shudder to think the pressure on the Military, People & the Political leadership.

On the pro side is off course the 1965 war.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 19 Jul 2020 09:45

Rs_singh wrote:Arshyam, what makes you think I’m quoting my experience? I’m only stating what, for instance, gen panag and gen hooda have said, on record. I’m a nobody. Condescending? Hmm. DSSC(AWC) teaches to you to critically analyze every piece of info out there. My bad for relying on my school. And I won’t contradict a fellow brother come what may. So take what you will. I had a similar conversation with your ilk regarding Galwan. Clearly common sense is not so common. This is the end of this. Move on.

A. It is bad form to edit a post after the other guy has responded - I didn't want to respond but noticed this only now and hence responding.
B. Condescending - anyone who has been following the infra buildup over the past few years would have noted the qualitative difference in the pace and quality over what prevailed over the previous decades. For someone who claims to "critically analyze" every piece of info out there, you clearly have missed/ignored the change in direction from the China Study Group's 2009 or thereabouts: from not developing forward areas since '62 to the start doing the opposite. So the infra buildup is definitely of recent vintage, and even more so in the past 3-4 years going by the funding provided for the same. It is not a case of this govt claiming credit just because they finished it. I don't care about your political leanings, but I do hope you put them aside to give things their due - and I did find your casual dismissal of these facts to be condescending.
C. What ilk is that? Civilian? May I remind you that this is NOT an ex-servicemen's forum, so every other guy here is of my "ilk" only. Your experience as a serviceman is respected, but you don't get to dismiss others' opinion just because they don't have the experience of carrying a rifle at 15K feet. Btw, I too did quote an ex-IA guy only, but for some reason, you didn't actually contradict him on substance. I am even more a nobody given my lack of 15K ft experience, so why argue with me?
D. If you are an IA (or other Indian veteran), no harm in just saying so instead of falling back on your service experience and here and there mentioning details no one asked for. I certainly didn't ask for your service record or which (defence) college you attended - just whether you served in a different country, which I have nothing against - it would just be a disclaimer and indicate how much you too are familiar with the ground realities of our frontiers. If you did serve in the Indian services, my heartfelt pranaams for having done what I wasn't able to.
E. Kindly do clarify what common sense you are expecting of me (and others of "my ilk").

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 19 Jul 2020 09:50

There are three stages to int. Collection, analysis and dissemination. When I, or others, say we were caught napping, it could imply a failure in any one or more of these three areas. If news reports are to be believed , cameras were malfunctioning onboard our “strat assets”. The same report-era later “recants” his story and follows up by a sarcastic tweet “Indian satellites performers very well”. I’ve seen this before. I know what it means. Here is our very own deep state refusing to acknowledge mistakes.
Does anyone want to know what the forum would have said between June- nov. 71 about what the army was doing? Or do you want me tell you what the army WAS indeed doing between December of 69 to November of 1970? The former would be speculation, the latter would be fact.

Arshyam I read your latest. No comment. Won’t respond. This isn’t a forum to sling shit at each other.take your politics elsewhere, I’m least concerned or bothered by it.

Edited to make an important comment. There is a difference between veteran and ex mil. It’s an important one. Just saying.
Last edited by Rs_singh on 19 Jul 2020 10:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Gyan » 19 Jul 2020 10:05

Atleast on BRF we should not repeat much worn out comforter that Sam got 9 months reprieve, time from Indira Gandhi to prepare for 1971 war, without an important caveat. We all know that Army was deep into Bangladesh with Company level formations many months before formal Declaration of war. We used to discuss this preparation time even during Parakaram time in BRF in 2002. But what happened? Even worse indecisiveness compared to Nehru.

I don't think there would be military action and Righly so. Time came & went. Especially as the Govt has said that we have lost no territory, so what will the War be for?

I think China has decided that its time for rise as a Super Power & to eclipse USA. They will pay economic & blood cost for it.

China is a bribing machine. They will have lot of world leaders in their pocket. US will find it difficult to raise any Coalition.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 19 Jul 2020 10:11

Gyan wrote:
arshyam wrote:Interesting, what did he ask for?

Everything except Military action.

Army does not seem to be least bit embarrassed that few dozen unarmed Chinese soldiers pushed them back at multiple points on a hotly contested border. & we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue.

Bureaucrats seem to be completely subverted into inaction. (See AG Barr Video)


Couldn’t agree more with you. An army that lacks op exp doesn’t remain an army for much longer, and we are seeing the results.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 19 Jul 2020 10:20

Lol... IA lacks op exp - by that token, which army does not lack it? Looks like we should go to war every 5 years with someone so as to have "op exp"... there's no satisfying some people, I guess.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 19 Jul 2020 10:41

Gyan wrote: . . . & we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue.

Gyan, *do not twist words*. Nobody said that.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 19 Jul 2020 12:04

Guys dont get banned and be civil. Dont make it personal.

Ramana

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 19 Jul 2020 12:09

Guys seriously our Armed forces are one of the tools to achieve foreign policy goals and are strictly under civilian control. For years they were told to guard a border that was not demarcated and that too without any firearms. There was a routine military exercise going on the other side and it is just a matter of time to redeploy them for salami slicing given the terrain and infrastructure on the other side. You cannot wake up after 60 years of apathy at all levels and expect our Armed forces to react differently. The truth is politico-civilian (aka NSC) leadership has to define foreign policy strategic objectives that then can be translated into doctrine, force structure, and military posture. Does GOI really have a China policy and is it realistic? Have they provided the necessary tools to implement that objective? If they really want our forces to take back Aksai Chin then provide the tools necessary to do that. You starve them with meager resources and expect them to fight an offensive war, it is not going to happen. It's always possible to wake someone from sleep, but no amount of noise will wake someone who is pretending to be asleep.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rpartha » 19 Jul 2020 12:41

Previously it was another set of bunch and now it is another set - rs_singh, gyan etc... India collapsed and India finished... China won the war... As if national building and strategic thing happens over night and it is as easy as taking poop... And we are the next Amerca and everyone should be shriveling in pain by mere mention of Indian Army... what we forget is it takes years to build and we have taken baby steps in the right direction after years of neglect... Patience gentleman patience...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Gyan » 19 Jul 2020 13:13

SSridhar wrote:
Gyan wrote: . . . & we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue.

Gyan, *do not twist words*. Nobody said that.


Ok, fair enough. What was actually Lt Gen N concrete suggestions?

My whole point is that comments, interviews & leaks to media seem to indicate that there is no planned escalation ladder.

Its not an issue of bravery or getting disheartened, the point is about taking well thought out steps, what ever they are!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 19 Jul 2020 13:21

Gyan, do not fudge the issue. You are entitled to hold and express your opinion. But, you can't state non-facts.

No further arguments on this issue are expected from you.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 13:30

Philip wrote:PS:Just a note in changing tack, Business Line,a Hindu publication has in its editorial page a piece, " Can the Quad rise to become an Asian NATO?"
It calls for the US to take the lead,make Asian states less dependent upon the PRC economically by opening up trade,tech,etc.to them,weaning them away from dependency upon the PRC and as a priority,roping in the ASEAN states.2 reasons for the rise of the Middle Kingdom.Nix-On's visit opening it up politically and Clin- Ton, opening it up economically. These are the two key reasons for the MK's rise today. To make the Quad effective like a NATO entity,the states all have to act in unison.Tall order,but must be seriously attempted .

PPS: Deploying troops all along the border is the aim of the PRC NOT that of the analyst! The analyst is quoting from top PRC military and security entities from their writings. The aim is to keep us landlocked mentally, spending much of our resources in the mountains while they concentrate on dominating the high seas,ICS and IOR. Why they are building up in haste the PN with a dozen+ subs,DDGs,FFGs missile craft,plus establish their troops in large number at Gwadar and in POK. The PLAN's warship and sub building capacity is unmatched by any other nation. It will far outstrip the IN by the decade's end.A string of bases,logistic facilities in the IOR ( pearls) will ensure their permanent presence.The latest $ 500 B deal with Iran has seen Iran boot us out of the Chahbahar railway portion of the project.Iran syas no agreement was signed with RITES,while we say project reports,etc,were drawn up. Iran is now going it alone,but thanks to PRC largesse.
This needs to be addressed ...

  1. PRC forces India to permanently forward deploy and they will rest easy after that! Given their paranoia about G219 and Aksi Chin, it would be the last thing they should aim for.
    • A forward deployed IA would mean the initiative for action along the LAC would rest with IA.
    • That would make CCP even more jittery than our Infra build and force them to do a mirror deploy of their own.
    • No need to do a mind read. Just check what they did at Doklam. The moment they realized India was willing to walk into Chinese territory( their POV), they have deployed massively to prevent just that. AND Aksi Chin is Indian territory per India and most forcefully reiterated during the A.370 discussions in the Indian parliament. The Chinese would NEVER trust a forward deployed IA not to make a play for G219/Aksi Chin.
    • Most asinine thing coming out of the Chines wolf warrior "analysts".
  2. Our focus in the IOR region is not going to waver no matter what is going on around the land border. A few notes on the Chinese maratime buildup
    • India has its own plan for the IOR. We are not building an expeditionary Navy in the short term therefore our requirement will be smaller.
    • Our plans does not need to match the Chinese boat for boat. We will be operating near our shore while the Chinese far from their shore.
    • Our focus should be on sea denial and therefore a different set of toolset than the Chinese is needed.
    • This has been discussed multiple times on the board but we seem to come back to the same questions again and again.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 19 Jul 2020 13:33

abhik wrote:
Y I Patel wrote:Were we caught napping? Gen Narasimhan mentions in the interview with Mr Gokhle and Gen Anbu that “we picked up Chinese formations but could not match their speed of movement towards Finger 4”. Given that the Chinese have a metaled road while we have a precarious foot track, this is not surprising.

Letting them make the first move has been the standard practice anyway, right? It has the benefit of revealing Chinese aggression for what it is. So long as the response is quick and proportionate, India cannot be faulted for the way the situation has unfolded. Is blaming the victim justified?

I don't get this, we have metalled roads till finger 3 (<3Km away) with motorable track upto <1km form finger 4 edge. Yes the chinese have a metalled road till finger 4, but that does not explain how they even took the ridge line at F3/F4 - which at least to my armchair opinion we should not have a disadvantage. I don't see how there was no intel failure, plus once we realised what they were upto, we could clearly not mobilize anywhere fast enough to compensate.


They are on the ridge line at F4/F5 not F3/F4. From their ridgeline, its not possible to overlook our camp on the reverse slope of finger 3.
In the past, patrols from either side in the finger area were not stopped. The only difference this time, was that the PLA patrol was larger and did not go back, but squatted and were reinforced later. Not something easy to predict.
Last edited by Deans on 19 Jul 2020 13:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nishant.gupta » 19 Jul 2020 13:39

Popped up on my Twitter feed. Can't validate the authenticity but is emotional.

https://twitter.com/rvaidya2000/status/1284325517999525888

Pune: Khadki Cantt Railway StationSoldiers leaving by ... Special Military train for Ladakh..
Such emotional moments !!!! RT

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 19 Jul 2020 13:40

If we do plan an armed response, who should be the objective? Drive them towards F8? then what? What if the Chini intrude in some other random place, along the 700KM? You have to guard every metre o LAC.

The thing is it is not clear to define how far we want to push the PLA. You cannot just push them to F8 and then stop.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 19 Jul 2020 13:45

nishant.gupta wrote:Popped up on my Twitter feed. Can't validate the authenticity but is emotional.

https://twitter.com/rvaidya2000/status/1284325517999525888

Pune: Khadki Cantt Railway StationSoldiers leaving by ... Special Military train for Ladakh..
Such emotional moments !!!! RT


There wouldn't be a train for Ladakh (I doubt the end destination of the unit would be disclosed. It would be one upto the railhead to Pathankot,
or Jammu. Probably a unit moving from a peacetime deployment to replace one in a forward sector, which would be routine.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 13:50

ManuJ wrote:
Anoop wrote:Also gives context to the statement by Gen. Anbu about the need for a tunnel from "Lamaryulu or thereabouts" to Thoise for all weather access. Once that is done, it replenishes the axis from Thoise to support the defence of Pangong Tso and attack across Hot Springs/Gogra.

A tunnel from Lamayuru to Thoise would be around 50 kms long! Not happening.
Much more doable and serving multiple purposes would be a tunnel under Khardung La (10-15 kms).
I think the General meant a direct route from Lamayuru to Thoise and a tunnel across the Ladakh (???) range where appropriate not necessarily at Khardung La.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 19 Jul 2020 14:05

Deans wrote:
abhik wrote:I don't get this, we have metalled roads till finger 3 (<3Km away) with motorable track upto <1km form finger 4 edge. Yes the chinese have a metalled road till finger 4, but that does not explain how they even took the ridge line at F3/F4 - which at least to my armchair opinion we should not have a disadvantage. I don't see how there was no intel failure, plus once we realised what they were upto, we could clearly not mobilize anywhere fast enough to compensate.


They are on the ridge line at F4/F5 not F3/F4. From their ridgeline, its not possible to overlook our camp on the reverse slope of finger 3.
In the past, patrols from either side in the finger area were not stopped. The only difference this time, was that the PLA patrol was larger and did not go back, but squatted and we reinforced later. Not something easy to predict.

The F4 ridge merges with F3 ridge, what I meant was that they were on that common ridge line (sorry I don't know what the right term for this is). I'm basing it on the information here https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1273 ... 30/photo/1 . Also there have been reports of the PLA patrolling down from their ridge line positions over F3 to the lake itself.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 14:18

Gyan wrote:Lt Gen N, definitely represents views of CSG. I earlier thought that he was defending the Govt response but now I have a feeling that he is defending views of CSG.

He says that Sumurdong Chu has been vacated by China, Has it? Or I heard it wrong?

I don't know much about border situations but I know a bit about economics & industry. CSG indicated views are wrong & out dated. I think CSG is China love Group.

I also feel that CSG is still viewing the situation as a serious border patrol scuffle rather than China moving to emerge as world power & being ready to make necessary sacrifices.

(I may be wrong in my reading of CSG.)

Note:- I am against initiating military action but feel that its time we begin all out economic decoupling.

1. IIRC, SS saar stated that CSG includes like of NSA, RAW, etc therefore it is up to date with the inputs from GOI and does the thinking for GOI. With the presence of NSA I would presume it to be a balanced group and finally CSG just makes recco. Ultimately it it Modi/Doval/Jaishankar who make the call on what is done. I doubt that they still view it as a border scuffle especially after the June 15/16 deaths.

However, India being the weaker power all things considered, has to take very calculated and deliberate steps. Moreover, the Chinese initiated the border tussle therefore it is good to assume that it came prepared. That should make India double check all its responses.

2. All out economic decoupling is not desirable in a globalized world. However, we should being to apply the principle of reciprocity in all our dealing with China.

I think the GOI has started a much needed course correction.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rsingh » 19 Jul 2020 14:26

manjgu wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:
Anti Modi posters like Rs_singh are making fun of it. Calling it "politicians doing photo op, chai biskoot."

I dont think rs_singh is anti or pro modi... his posts make lot of sense. .. respect people's opinion .... see different perspectives...


Please note that it is Rs_singh and not rs_singh. May I request Admin to look into striking resemblance between two names. This may lead to some confusion in future. Furthermore I do not agree with his views on certain topics. No offence.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 14:30

RaviB wrote:Asgkhan ji, I think we shouldn't exoticise the Chinese, they are certainly not Sun Tzu citing, cone hat wearing, weiqi players. But we shouldn't get into the double forked tongue betrayers idea. Should we expect sincerity from the enemy? Frankly, if we get betrayed, it is our weakness and naiveté. As Dubya said fool me twice, shame on me.

They are a country with their own interests, several of which run counter to ours. They are analysable and understandable. Jayadev Ranade made the point that we should be aware of strategic shifts in China and anticipate what they are up to. If they surprise us, it's their success (and our failure, something for us to learn from)

< snip>

This is fine for Republic TV and it's ok as a temporary expression of anger but we should treat the Chinese neither with respect, nor with contempt but with seriousness. We should analyse the hell out of them, we should understand every weakness, be able to exploit every chink (I know) in their armour. We should aim to understand them better than they understand themselves. If they are lizards, we should become Herpetologists. That IMO is how to treat a powerful enemy, not with emotional outbursts that cloud our judgment.
Agree.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 14:42

Gyan wrote:Lt Gen N, seems to be member of both NSAB & CSG. His whole tone & tenor makes me uncomfortable. He does not seem to have any solutions except narrating that historically talking solved the issue. Its interesting to see his style in contrast with Gen Maneckshaw. So I have to agree with views of Vidhur about him. I am afraid he has missed the drift of present day China.

His individual views would have been immaterial except for the fact that he seems to represent the views of two Institutions which may be the main Govt think tanks on the matter.
Lt Gen N, being member of both NSAB & CSG, cannot publicly discuss specific GOI steps or options especially in a live situation. He is bound, by his position, to talk in generalities.

He seems to be in the media to convey that GOI is doing what is needed. It is perfectly fine is some people are not convinced by his message.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Gyan » 19 Jul 2020 14:47

pankajs wrote:
2. All out economic decoupling is not desirable in a globalized world. However, we should being to apply the principle of reciprocity in all our dealing with China.

I think the GOI has started a much needed course correction.


I have said enough about CSG. I have to obey the moderators.

I am for two step complete economic decoupling from China:-

1. Import tariffs on ALL chinese goods of minimum 40%, thereafter raise to 80% then 120% alongwith MIP to prevent smuggling

2. Any essential import (with reduced duty) to be channelised through STC.

3. Second step complete Ban on imports except point 2.

4. Off course immediate Ban on all investments and all tourism, visits, education courses etc to be monitored strictly.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 15:08

Gyan wrote:
arshyam wrote:Interesting, what did he ask for?


Well you fell into the trap. Major Gen Maneckshaw asked for "Nothing". He told Nehru that he was waiting for 18 months to join Action. He went into Operations Room, asked Army to stop withdrawing & start moving forward. Indian Army only lacked "Orders". (SOURCE: His Interview)

Every General today is expert on Geopolitics, Foreign Affairs, Domestic Politics, Economic Policies, procurement policies, Imports, Gardening etc etc.

Everything except Military action.

Army does not seem to be least bit embarrassed that few dozen unarmed Chinese soldiers pushed them back at multiple points on a hotly contested border. & we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue.

Bureaucrats seem to be completely subverted into inaction. (See AG Barr Video)
Disagree with the highlighted.

1. Makes it appear that Army sits on the LAC. It doe not.
2. "A few dozen" make sit appear that this is a border scuffle when it is obviously not.
3. "on a hotly contested border" again gives the impression that IA is sitting on the LAC/Border which it is not. Even at Galwan the ITBP is deployed 4-5 km back of the LAC.
4. "we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue" is highly inappropriate! I don't recall anyone suggesting India waiting till that record is breached before taking action.

As for a negotiated way out, it seems to have worked before and at Galwan, Hot springs and Gogra sections. At Pangang tso is hasn't panned out while not much is known about Depsang.

So while negotiations haven't yielded satisfactory results there has been progress. Progress or failure takes time to evaluate but No one suggested a wait time of 7 years. Trying negotiations as a way of ending border tension is appropriate 1st step.

This jibe at the Army was highly unwarranted, inappropriate and without substance.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 15:12

nam wrote:A simple fact in this standoff is that the entire narrative is driven by us. The Chinese cannot show what is going on..And obviously our media is constantly feed..

The media focus is on Chinese intrusion in 4 places. It is not focused on the remaining part of LAC.. The Chinese cannot show any Indian intrusion, as it will cause pressure from their population to respond militarily, which they really don't want.
Well, even for Depsang there has been no leak from GOI/MOD/Babus or scuk-low.

That is indeed surprising and I was just thinking about Depsang this morning. Someone yesterdin remarked on twitter IIRC that the resolution to Depsang and Pangang Tso are linked ... He may have been hallucinating but if not what could he have meant!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 15:28

Guddu wrote:What all this means to me is that India and Modiji has decided that China MUST withdraw and failure to do so will result in military action. We are giving them time for talks to work out, action will be taken at a time of our choosing perhaps Sept/Oct. If this were not so, Modi/Rajnathsingh ji would not be going to the forward areas and raising troop morale. It is important to take action this year, so that the Chinese are on the backfoot. This will also be helpful when India goes for Gilgit-Baltistan and keep the Chinese away. I think China too realizes that CPEC is gone and they are making a back up play in Iran (Chabahar).
Mostly Agree ..

  1. We are willing for a negotiated settlement as first option. Allows for a face saver for China/Xi.
  2. While going to the front-line has its signalling value, the same words even if uttered from Delhi would have meant the same and sent the same signal globally.
  3. Modi/Rajnath, by making such a statement, are committing themselves to a certain course of action. This WILL be picked up by international actors.
  4. While the domestic audience might be willing to give Modi the benefit of doubt for inaction, international opinion will be unforgiving if he fails to act. Therefore, Modi has comitted himself to push the Chinese out before of a global audience.
  5. Chinese are trying for a backup for CPEC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 19 Jul 2020 15:31

Y I Patel wrote:India has already crossed a huge mental block in this qualitatively different response to Chinese aggression, and it is wise for PM Modi to make haste slowly. Indira Gandhi waited a full six months after the onset of genocide in East Pakistan despite all the pressures on India at that time. PM Modi faces no comparable pressure, and thanks to the timely response, no one is sitting on the ridges directing arty fire at DSDBO road. With all that he has already done for India, ordinary Indians will trust him and give him all the time he needs to initiate the most appropriate response. And if the response does not involve shooting, that should be okay too. He does not have to impress Pappu or anyone on BRF.
Agree


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