Vivek K wrote:You're only making my point in your hastiness Admiral! With tactics and training a lot can be overcome. The MKI is a capable bird and with a large force available- well suited to the multiple roles it may need. Added to that are upgraded M2Ks and Mig-29s. These upgraded aircraft can work in tandem with the MKI to accomplish IAF's missions.
The IAF has been operating the Su-30K/MK since 1997 (23 years) and with the MKI since 2002 (18 years). The IAF has been operating the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 since 1985 (35 years). How much more tactics and training does the IAF need to master on these platforms? And with the upgrades, even those tactics and training have been updated and mastered. What are you talking?
Tactics and training go hand-in-hand with capable platforms. Tactics and training are developed from the platforms you have. Tactics and training do not live in a vacuum. What tactics and training that is applicable for one aircraft (i.e. payload and range capability of Su-30) will not work for another (i.e. payload and range capability of MiG-29). But both are needed, as they serve different needs.
What are the multiple roles that the IAF needs that you are referring to? If the IAF can reduce the attrition rate (both in terms of men and material) by inducting a newer platform, to support the existing platforms in service, the IAF would most certainly take it. The IAF is only effective when the men and women who wear the uniform, are actually AVAILABLE (i.e ALIVE) when needed.
Sir, in your desire for local maal, you have thrown logic out the window. You view every foreign purchase as some sort of evil Satanic design to kill the Tejas. The current Chief has already gone on record stating that the Tejas is the best in its class in the world. The Air Chief was present at the raising of the second squadron. He even flew a sortie during the squadron raising. The IAF could not have asked for a better man to support the Tejas program. He is perfect for the role.
Vivek K wrote:Timely action could have been taken in IAF placing orders for LCA several years ago and not delaying them for imaginary large number of refuellers that we possess. It was not taken so that IAF could create the finances for such a ridiculously expensive fighter - $217 million per aircraft - a bargain price compared to the $290 million paid by Qatar. Delivery schedule of the Rafale - 18 by Feb 2021 and final 18 by May 2022. So what will you do in 2020 Admiral if shit hits the roof? Throw 3 Rafales plus the two trainers at PLAAF plus PAF? How will that help - pray enlighten us?
Could and should had to be done. But it is not done, is it? You keep harping about the past, as if it is going to change anything in the present. Even the 12 Su-30MKIs and 21 MiG-29s ordered will come only in 18 - 24 months. The first batch of 83 Tejas Mk1As will arrive only by Dec 2023, assuming the contract is signed in Dec 2020. That is how aircraft deliveries work.
Are you aware of why the unit cost of the Rafale in the first 36 deal is costing this much? Have you see the break down of the deal? Which air base in India can house the Rafale without base infrastructure? What about training simulators? Weapons (unless you plan for the Rafale to fire tulsi and marigolds at the enemy)? Spares? Tools? PBL Contract?
Even I can shoot off a figure like that ---> Almost $64 million for each Tejas Mk1A. That much money for a MiG-21 replacement? Should it not be around $20 million per bird, because MiG-21 was even cheaper than $20 million! At $64 million, that is more than 3X the amount of $20 million and that too for a MiG-21 replacement? But my criticism is not valid and is illogical. Because the finer details of that unit cost is below.Deal for 83 Tejas fighters passes bureaucratic hurdlehttps://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 96.article
19 March 2020
The procurement cost of $5.3 billion covers 73 single-seat Tejas Mk1As and 10 twin-seat trainers in addition to sensors, weapons and associated equipment and spares support from HAL for a period of two years, a company official tells FlightGlobal.
Pulling out the figure of $217 million for each Rafale might work with the gullible whom you want to convince that the deal is a waste of money, but not with me. Nice try though. Although I am fully aware that you will now say that since $217 million is greater than $63 million, so Rafale is a waste of money
Vivek K wrote:You're hiding the full picture of the time Admiral: at that time, Mig-21s were falling out of the skies at 15-17 aircraft per year. IN 2000 there was no sight (IIRC) of the bisons. The first two were shipped in May 2001; Deliveries of the Sukhoi MKIs were also nowhere near. And a MKI demonstrator crashed in Farnborough in June 1999. The LCA was also nowhere near induction and estimates pointed to 2010. And the IAF had initially built facilities for 150 M2ks. So it made sense at the time to get additional M2ks as an insurance against the Mig fleet, the LCA, the MKI (first deliveries in June 2002).
Deliveries of the Su-30MKIs were nowhere near because the first batch was formally inducted on 27 Sept 2002. So in 2000, there was no Su-30MKI. How in the year 2000, could MKI delivery be near...when there was no plane to induct in the first place? In 2000, the Rambha was still undergoing tests and certification. Just a minor, very little issue that you seem not to be concerned with.
The first two BISONs returned to India only in July 2001. There was no sight of the BISONs in 2000 because again, testing and certification had to be completed. Another minor, really negligible issue. I should not have even brought it up!
In the year 2000, the M2K completed 15 years of service and the IAF was very happy with the platform and wanted to induct more. They wanted to license build 110 in the 1980s for a total fleet of 150 Mirage 2000s. That did not pan out and in 2001, they were looking to induct 126 Mirage 2000s. Now with MMRCA 2.0, the IAF is looking to induct 114 aircraft to add to the 36 Rafales, for a total fleet of 150. And in 2001, the IAF was looking at the Dash 5 variant and not H/TH variant that was in service.
Dassault was winding down the production line and would have transferred the entire line to India. Acquiring 126 Mirage 2000 had nothing to do with Su-30MKI or BISON. They were different programs to serve different needs.
Vivek K wrote:Today's scenario is different - with the 272 Sukhois delivered and 12 more on order. MIg 29 upgrades largely completed and so is the M2K upgrade (I believe) and the LCA has proven itself to all naysayers as a good fighter. In today's situation adding another fighter type puts a strain on maintenance and logistics. IAF operates - Sukhois, Migs 21,27, 29, M2K, Jaguars.
MiG-27 retired last year. MiG-21 will be out the door by 2024. Only the Su-30MKI, MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000 and Jaguars are left. The latter three will all be gone by the mid-2030s. The MiG-29 and the Mirage 2000 will hit 50 years of age in 2035, assuming they are still around at that time. The story for the Jaguar is not too different either.
That leaves only the Su-30MKI and in 2035, the oldest bird will be 33 years of age. There are 13 - 14 Su-30MKI units and thus that leaves around 29 squadrons that need to be filled with other combat aircraft. Majority of those 29 units will be different Tejas variants, followed by 2 (and possibly 2 more) Rafale units. I don't have a crystal ball, but I do not see how MMRCA 2.0 is going to pan out - financially or politically.
Vivek K wrote:Admiral - putting words in the mouth of another seems unbecoming of a forum moderator. I will leave it at that. Please read the above. Also factor in that I was banned in 2000 for a couple of weeks for being opposed to the LCA program. That was then, the current LCA is real and is available and costs far less than the M2K upgrade - even at the numbers you state.
I am aware of what I typed and I stand by it. This is what you said about the Mirage 2000 upgrade cost....
Vivek K wrote:And how much does one think an MLU in 2030 for the Rafales cost, going by the $65 million per a/c to upgrade M2Ks without engine change?
I pointed out that the upgrade cost was nothing even close to that figure of $65 million. You are getting takleef because I called you out on that. Your track record is to inflate the cost of phoren maal to prove a point, which you do not have to begin with.
Vivek K wrote:So is buying the Rafale an upgrade? I'm not sure i understand. When you buy a shiny new plane, and it takes 5 years to get here (through normal process - contracting, manufacturing, training, etc) do you think your opponents are sitting round doing nothing. How long will that fighter retain its edge. So then wat will you advise? Because shit could hit the roof in 2026-28 and upgrades take time - selection, contracting and then installing. So will you have to buy new aircraft say the F35 then at that time to ensure safety against the Chinese J-XX?
Some more facts for you Sir.
Fact #1 - The deal for the Rafale was signed in Sept 2016.
Fact #2 - The handover was done in Sept 2019, as per signed contract. Industry standard is three years for initial delivery. Even HAL is taking three years for delivery of Tejas Mk1A. Shocking no?
Fact #3 - Again, as per signed contract, the first batch was to arrive in India by May 2020. The pilots had to complete their training syllabus which is completed in progressive stages. This was part of the agreement when it was signed in Sept 2016.
These pilots are not learning the basic nuances of flight with the Rafale. All 4++ generation combat aircraft are more mission specific training vs actual flying. And this training takes time and much of this training is classified. I am sure you know what types of training I am referring to. And the pilots who are operating her are the best in the IAF. Many of them, if not all, are TACDE graduates with FSL or FCL badges. Wing Commander Abhishek Tripathi took part in Cope India 2018 ---> https://twitter.com/sethu1215/status/10 ... 29856?s=20
So the delivery of May 2020, has happened now in July 2020 due to COVID - a delay of two months. Perhaps at the Tejas Mk1A signing scheduled for Dec 2020, they should consult some guru to see if any zombies or aliens will come to attack Planet Earth in 2023, like how COVID did in 2020. That would be helpful. Who knew in Sept 2016 that something like COVID would put the entire world on hold?
So a delay of two months in the first batch, but you said five years. Please explain how you came up with that figure. Oh wait, we all know. You tacked on Prime Minister Modi's announcement with President Hollande from April 2015 and brilliantly came up with five years. But delivery can only happen with actual contract signature and not MoU. You should know that Sir, if you are going to critique the acquisition. Come on!
The next part of your analysis is a true gem ---> i.e. shit could hit the roof in 2026-28 and upgrades take time - selection, contracting and then installing.
Tejas Mk1A signing scheduled for Dec 2020 and delivery of first batch is scheduled for Dec 2023. Like Rafale, will Tejas Mk1A also be obsolete to tackle J-XX? Because HAL proposed the Mk1A in 2015 and the first batch will be delivered in 2023. Eight years later. By that time, she will be obsolete! Knowing this, do you think Sir, we should sign up for Mandarin and Cantonese classes? Because the Chinese will have run us over and instead of the Tricolor flying over the Red Fort, it will be the Chicom flag. Or do you foresee Tejas to have over-the-air upgrades, so it will always be relevant? But Rafale will be lagging behind right? Those evil French looted us.
If you come up with that rule for Rafale, it will be true for Tejas as well. Will also be true for the upgraded Mirage 2000s, upgraded MiG-29s and every other combat aircraft in the IAF. But we all know that is not how it works. Nice try.
Vivek K wrote:Sad to see a forum moderator go to pieces like this. All my comments are made respectfully Admiral. I have reason to believe that you distort/misinterpret my posts.
You are digging your own hole. I do not need to resort to distorting and mis-interpreting your posts. Example is right below.
Vivek K wrote:Where did you read the word question in my post? Let me restate - with the Track record of the French - $2.2 billion for the M2K upgrade, they are pricey for a) the initial purchase and b) the upgrade. So in total the cost of purchase and upgrade of the Rafale will punch a large hole through IAF's capex budget. Guess what this will cause - deferment and cancellation of other purchases. I am questioning the price of the Rafale not of M2k or MKI or Mig-29 or .....
Please divide $2.2 billion with 49 Mirage 2000s and see what the per unit cost upgrade comes to. Please just do that. And when you do, see if you get a figure anywhere close to $65 million per aircraft. Those are YOUR words, not MINE.
The Mirage 2000 was comparatively expensive in 1985 in relation to the MiG-29 purchase. But yet in 1999 at Kargil, the platform which successfully attacked Tiger Hill was the Mirage 2000. The MiG-29 could not do it and neither could the Su-30K/MK. The Mirage 2000 has always had a higher availability rate compared to the MiG-29. In Balakot, the platform that successfully completed the mission was the Mirage 2000. Not the Su-30MKI or the upgraded MiG-29, both of which were present in significant numbers. Why did the IAF not use them?
The French are pricey, but you get the capability what you pay for. F-35 is more expensive than Tejas. Where on the technological totem pole lies the F-35 in relation to the Tejas? But is that a valid comparison for the IAF? Now please do not say I am arguing for F-35 instead of Tejas
You *CANNOT* take the unit cost of the Mirage 2000 from 1985 and then tack on the upgrade cost from 2011. It does not work like that. Using that formula, every aircraft will look horrendously expensive over the course of her life. So I am distorting your words and mis-interpreting your posts? Or are you doing Lahori mathematics to prove your point? And here is the source for the $2.2 billion upgrade cost, a number that you gave.Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 Upgrade Progresses Despite Groundingshttps://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... groundings
Although a $2.2 billion upgrade of India’s Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters is progressing, around a quarter of the fleet of 49 is grounded because a contract for spares has remained unsigned for years, AIN has learned from sources involved in the program.