India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[tsarkar]

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 2907968512

If I do, it is my right; if you do it is provocation. Old Chinese playbook.

Sums up Chinese expectation from tributary state that we refuse to be.

[srin]

Here we go

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/c ... 2020-10-14

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/asia ... index.html

"Xi Jinping emphasised that it is necessary to uphold the party's absolute leadership over the militarypay close attention to comprehensively and strictly govern the party and the militaryand ensure that the troops are absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable."

Very interesting remarks that show the state of SHA. If you see a sign board which says "drive slow", you know that people typically speed near there. So, when 11 says "loyal" or "reliable", it means that they haven't been either and that he is really afraid of a coup. Which other country would exhort its troops to be loyal ? I can think of TSPA immediately given their history.

I can't even guess what "pure" refers to. Some communist term perhaps ?

[nandakumar]

Here we go

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/c ... 2020-10-14

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/asia ... index.html

Since it was an address to the Marine Corps it imp.ied an attack on Taiwan. Or so I thought. Did it necessarily imply an attack on India? By the way there was a news report that I read which quoted a minister of the Maharashtra Government to the effect that the collapse of the Maharashtra electricity grid could have been an act sabotage. Would the Chinese have been at work here?

[suryag]

Here we go

==snip==
Very interesting remarks that show the state of SHA. If you see a sign board which says "drive slow", you know that people typically speed near there. So, when 11 says "loyal" or "reliable", it means that they haven't been either and that he is really afraid of a coup. Which other country would exhort its troops to be loyal ? I can think of TSPA immediately given their history.

I can't even guess what "pure" refers to. Some communist term perhaps ?

Srin sir, in TSP the Salwar Army will ask the PM/country to be loyal to their salwars not the other way around

[KL Dubey]

I hope it doesnt end up in a situation like Jelep La below. The author's credentials are well established. Maj Chandrakant Singh VrC 4 Guards (1RAJPUT) exploits have been covered in the book The Garud Strikes. His account of 1971 is also there on Bharat Rakshak Army Page.

they found themselves short of food even after having ransacked the country side of all food supplies. It was the Nehru government which supplied huge quantities of rice from India via Jelep La Pass in Sikkim.

This beggers belief, nehru supplied the Hans with food?? Is this mentioned widely known? Unbelievable.

And even more remarkably, at the very same time Banditji and his sister were begging in the US for wheat supplies and the overall food situation in India was dire. Read the summary of all that shyte in this 4-page article:

http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/swallowing-the-humiliation/645168/1

[pankajs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DmF3RTgK2I
BLACKMAIL & HYPOCRISY: China Objects To India's Road Building

[Y I Patel]

Here we go

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/c ... 2020-10-14

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/14/asia ... index.html

"Xi Jinping emphasised that it is necessary to uphold the party's absolute leadership over the militarypay close attention to comprehensively and strictly govern the party and the militaryand ensure that the troops are absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable."

I can't even guess what "pure" refers to. Some communist term perhaps ?

“Absolutely pure” == stop watching p0rn

[pankajs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJPD-sSFhzY
Live at 10 | China’s 5th Gen Warfare | #IndiaChinaDispute | Gen Ata Hasnain

[hnair]

Srin sir, in TSP the Salwar Army will ask the PM/country to be loyal to their salwars not the other way around

Xitler's famous ChowMein Kampf' talks about purity:
- Dont exercise with any first-rate military, introduces impure thoughts on all sides
- Give lots of staged demos of magazine changes, surviving bad grenade tosses etc for purity in capability that is unsullied by the field
- shirtless snowerobics, for taller than mountain purity

[nam]

So the Chinis have finally opened their mouth, telling us the reason for the standoff. They want to stop our roads.

Since we have declined to stop, there is nothing to gain in going back. Even a war will not stop the road building. It can only stop, if we stop it out of fear...

Hence the Chinis are dragging the standoff, in the hope that we will stop our roads.

[pankajs]

We will continue to build till our requirements are met and may be some more. So dragging the standoff will not serve any purpose. The only way to stop India is to go to war and teach it a lesson.

[nam]

Irrespective of the result of the war, they cannot stop the roads. How many times will they go to war with us for stopping road building?

Their only hope was we "chickening out". They lost, the moment we said no.

[pankajs]

They can stop India from road building by going to war and occupying the immediate area(s) thus adding depth to their existing position also stopping the road building in those areas.

[fanne]

They can stop India from road building by going to war and occupying the immediate area(s) thus adding depth to their existing position also stopping the road building in those areas.

No they have to do two things - Go to war and WIN it. There is no guarantee on the second part. When we win it, they may loose much more than just stopping our roads.

[pankajs]

Of course "occupying " cannot happen without winning in the area it intends to stop Indian Road building.

https://twitter.com/Vedmalik1/status/13 ... 9511356416 {A military man's view and most likely represents the majority view on this board}

China-India border Talks. Sweet talk claiming ‘positive & constructive’, ‘enhanced understanding’ in Mil level discussions. But in Beijing, striking at the roots of relationship challenging India’s sovereignty over Ladakh & Arunachal & its right to develop border infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... 7742408705 {A diplomats view}

Very right. China keeping channels open to avoid accusation of unwillingness to negotiate. Seeks gains through intimidation without fighting. India hopes its resolve will force China to review calculations. India won’t blink and China can’t without serious damage to its standing

https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1 ... 9642976256

All the foreign policy and national security experts who don't understand why Indian Govt keeps talking, read & listen to what diplomat @KanwalSibal has to say, as this will help you understand Govt's goals & reasoning(instead of imposing your own biases on Govt)

[nam]

The LAC is 3400KM long. We can invade anywhere on the 3400KM LAC, in response to any Chinese action.

They want to take over Ladakh region at 15,000 ft and guard it during winter. They are welcome. We will invade at lower altitude at other points on LAC.

It is not just going to war. They have to guard their "war wins", even in winters. All along the 3400km LAC. Chinis have been doing it cheaply so far. They go to war, they end up deploying half of PLA on Indo-Tibet border.

[Philip]

When we achieved Independence,the Brits left us as a basket case. We had precious little hard assets at the time in any sphere except the bullock cart and the railways,P&T,etc.The Indian armed forces' men and assets were divided too .Getting the " princely states" to merge with India against British machinations for some to remain independent was a massive achievement thanks to Patel and Porbandar. It took a few decades to build up our heavy industry, " the modern temples....", and embark upon the green and white revolution. Look at the early '80s and SLV-3, the forerunner of our space and missile programme. All what we have today was ⁹ upon the humble efforts of the past,therefore we should be dispassionate in our judgement having the benefit of hindsight. But Chin duplicity was warned time and again over the last several years,ignored by our MEA mandarins who still have not realised that the PRC will not accept India as an equal,and that to the PRC is not Asia's century but the PRC's!

Therefore we have no other alternative but to relentlessly confront the SOS's ( sons of swine) along our vast border and fight them when required. QED.
Just one recent piece of intel shows you what we're in for.
A new building hall in a major shipbuilding yard that can build two nuclear subs at a time, plus plans for upto 4 simultaneously. Another 4 CVs are also on the anvil.

[ramana]

Philip On Twitter I had a to and fro with Luttwak the strategist.
He wants Taiwan to raise a 2 million man army to resist PRC and US can.back off their guarantees.

[ramana]

No. They should go nuclear. NPT was for non-expansionist nuclear powers. PRC was underserving of the NWS status in NPT. It was frozen to suit superpower interests. Taiwan & Japan need to go nuclear as US treaty commitments are doubtful with experts urging Taiwan to defend itself

[sudeepj]

No. They should go nuclear. NPT was for non-expansionist nuclear powers. PRC was underserving of the NWS status in NPT. It was frozen to suit superpower interests. Taiwan & Japan need to go nuclear as US treaty commitments are doubtful with experts urging Taiwan to defend itself

If the US decline continues unabated, for instance through a contested transfer of power, or large scale civil unrest, I can see all of G4 group of countries going full thermo-nuclear in a coordinated move. At least Germany, India and Japan have a justifiable threat scenario to do this. Xin Ping has really set humanity back be several decades. CPC needs to be punished. They simply cant be allowed to continue lording it over the Chinese people let alone the foreign countries they have grabbed - Tibet, Mongolia, Turkestan.

Finally, with the worlds supply of semiconductors in easy reach of China/CPC (in South Korea, in Taiwan), we just cant allow these countries to be bullied by China. The future Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO) should station nukes in Taiwan/Japan/Phillipines/Vietnam to make sure China is hemmed behind the first island chain.

[ramana]

And that the situation is reminiscent of WWI, which Michael Howard writes about

the political objects –
the preservation or destruction of the Habsburg Empire, the
establishment or prevention of a German hegemony in Europe, the
maintenance of British maritime supremacy, and the territorial integrity
of France

and now

Hundred years later we face similar questions in East Asia. Especially the establishment or prevention of Han hegemony in East Asia and further. Maintenance of US Navy supremacy is for US to decide and fund or not.
Territorial integrity of India is a matter for India & decided!

[sudeepj]

Its not just territorial integrity, its also internal dissension and intrigue. This can go on below the radar for years and years and become a metastasized cancer impossible to treat. Frankly, Ill happily trade a bit of land if it results in better internal cohesion, but thats just me and others have different opinions.

Indians must use the power of their vote, the power of their wallet and the power of their voices thoroughly and wisely. The recent goings-on involving elite shenanigans, low level distributed/delegated violence means this situation of limbo that our relations with the China-Pak complex cant go on like this for ever. We need to sort this out.

The two front situation means we will need to act lightning fast. A hundred years have passed, but the parameters of waging war are exactly the same.

[hanumadu]

New imagery for google maps has been released for pangong tso area in october. Can compare tents from earlier imagery to know Indian positions.

Edit: Sorry, my bad. Its still old imagery from june.

[SSridhar]

. . . and ensure that the troops are [b]absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable."

I can't even guess what "pure" refers to. Some communist term perhaps ?

'Absolutely Pure' = Xi Jinping's 'Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era'

[SSridhar]

And that the situation is reminiscent of WWI, which Michael Howard writes about
. . . and now

Especially the establishment or prevention of Han hegemony in East Asia and further. Maintenance of US Navy supremacy is for US to decide and fund or not.
Territorial integrity of India is a matter for India & decided!

ramana, if anyone thinks that Han want to establish their hegemony only in East Asia, or Asia or even West Pacific, he/she is mistaken totally.

[SSridhar]

US poll results, economic recovery could shape outcome of LAC row - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

New Delhi is acutely aware that it is playing a game of endurance and nerves with China on the icy heights, the outcome of which may be influenced not just by the two sides but also global developments, including results of the US election. . . neither side is willing to give up what it considers “gains” in the past few months. . . Since Chinese troops didn’t just stray across the LAC in April, and came with a specific intent, India expects Beijing to follow through, and has planned accordingly. President Xi Jinping’s address to Chinese marine corps on Tuesday seems to suggest China is nowhere close to disengagement.

The truth is probably that the US is unlikely to ever engage China in the manner of the past, given the growing unease in Washington about Beijing. However, the possibility of resumption of deeper economic activity between US and China could affect the attitude of both countries to India and the current conflict. . . India’s harder climb out of the Covid trough is likely to be another factor for China as it seeks to push India further. India has reversed a number of disadvantages on the Ladakh heights and is in a tactically improved position. What would also work for India is the growing global distaste for Chinese pressure tactics — which has had even the Democrat leadership in the US weighing in India’s support. Planners here say India has factored in full winter deployment as in Siachen. China has, according to reports, followed suit. . . . the challenge will be to keep troops well resourced and their morale up. With long experience in Siachen, India believes it can outlast China.

[SSridhar]

So the Chinis have finally opened their mouth, telling us the reason for the standoff. They want to stop our roads.

It would be a mistake to believe that this is the reason or even one of the most important reasons. It could very well be and equally unlikely also.

[samirdiw]

The LAC is 3400KM long. We can invade anywhere on the 3400KM LAC, in response to any Chinese action.

They want to take over Ladakh region at 15,000 ft and guard it during winter. They are welcome. We will invade at lower altitude at other points on LAC.

It is not just going to war. They have to guard their "war wins", even in winters. All along the 3400km LAC. Chinis have been doing it cheaply so far. They go to war, they end up deploying half of PLA on Indo-Tibet border.

Look at the map. It is clear why they say Indian control of Ladakh is illegal. It has nothing to do with Pakistan. They want us completely off the mountains. If successful they will not hesitate to clear the Pakistanis out too some time in future.

As long as we are on the mountains, an independent Tibet is a possibility maybe not now but in future. It is another reason why India has to call the the Tibetian control of China as illegal. Tibetian struggle is stiffled as long as India doesnt call the Han occupation illegal. If we do so though they will attack for sure. This is not possible though without bringing on the other parties on board. That is the strength and weakness of a democracy.

They are looking hundreds of years ahead while we are content to be safe enough to go back and squabble among ourselves.

[Iyersan]

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 56611?s=20

Never believe anything unless it is officially denied. Good old Humprhey Appleby’s adage is universally true. #RandomThoughts

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... tso/667182
Ladakh: Chinese PLA casualty evacuation spotted in North Bank area of Pangong Tso
Check the Video Ticker

[LakshmanPST]

This beggers belief, nehru supplied the Hans with food?? Is this mentioned widely known? Unbelievable.

This is widely known.

In fact, there is another one, for which I do not have a reference right now, but have clearly read about it. That is, in 1950, China asked India permission to build a road from Kashgar to Lhasa.

Though this is not related to current stand-off, now and then I wonder how we 'didn't know' about a highway construction through our territory for five years until it is completed...
5 years is too long a time to be in dark about such a project...

There is definitely more to this than what is in public domain... Or may be I'm thinking too much...

[mihir.mehta]

So the Chinis have finally opened their mouth, telling us the reason for the standoff. They want to stop our roads.

It would be a mistake to believe that this is the reason or even one of the most important reasons. It could very well be and equally unlikely also.

You can't trust them on anything. Even this could be deception. They just wanted to show India its place, show us who the big brother is and that we should always keep our heads low.
Yes they're uncomfortable with our positions on the southern bank but its really difficult to say they'll attack to dislodge us. They can still construct another road - from the east to Spangur - I know it'll be difficult but very doable - particularly when they know that we'll never attack.

If the PM doesn't even name the Chinese, or acknowledge a b'day wsh from Taiwan - our attacking them - given our economic plight is easily ruled out.

[mihir.mehta]

As per some reports - the've already - with the permission of the Afghan govt - started patrolling parts of the Wakhan Corridor - to ensure - the Talib's don't use that to come in to China to link up with the Uighurs. So someone above rightly said - given a chance they'll even kick Pakistan out of Kashmir. With them now its all "Might is Right". The establishments all over (India, US, Japan, Aus etc) know this well.

That is why - for the first time - the US representative who visited India recently - also visited B'desh. That is unprecedented really.
Next i think its Pompeo visiting Maldives and SriLanka - after visiting India.

https://idrw.org/us-resets-ties-with-ba ... hbourhood/

[pankajs]

Yes they're uncomfortable with our positions on the southern bank but its really difficult to say they'll attack to dislodge us. They can still construct another road - from the east to Spangur - I know it'll be difficult but very doable - particularly when they know that we'll never attack.

If the PM doesn't even name the Chinese, or acknowledge a b'day wsh from Taiwan - our attacking them - given our economic plight is easily ruled out.

You still do not get the point of India occupying the heights and why it troubles the Chinese. How will a road mitigate that?

[mihir.mehta]

You can't trust them on anything. Even this could be deception. They just wanted to show India its place, show us who the big brother is and that we should always keep our heads low.
Yes they're uncomfortable with our positions on the southern bank but its really difficult to say they'll attack to dislodge us. They can still construct another road - from the east to Spangur - I know it'll be difficult but very doable - particularly when they know that we'll never attack.

If the PM doesn't even name the Chinese, or acknowledge a b'day wsh from Taiwan - our attacking them - given our economic plight is easily ruled out.

You still do not get the point of occupying the heights and why it troubles the Chinese.

I get it well my friend - only thing I am trying to tell you is - just because we've an advantage in one place - doesn't imply that they'll attack. Their calculations did go wrong - but they could partially remedy it by constructing another road. That'll still not solve their problem but they too could live with it - the way we live with our lost territory.

[pankajs]

You still do not get the point of occupying the heights and why it troubles the Chinese.

I get it well my friend - only thing I am trying to tell you is - just because we've an advantage in one place - doesn't imply that they'll attack. Their calculations did go wrong - but they could partially remedy it by constructing another road. That'll still not solve their problem but they too could live with it - the way we live with our lost territory.

1. Which territory has India lost that the Chinese will "think", in your opinion, is adequate compensation for their "loss" in the Spanggur area?

2. Is the Spanggur/Chushul Chinese "loss" the same in tactical/strategic terms as the Indian "loss" somewhere else, wherever (we will find out when you reply to the first point) it is?

3. How will another road to the same area remedy the Chinese "loss"?

[rohitvats]

The third video in the Ladakh series which covers the details of road connectivity with DBO sector. It has details of existing and planned roads, risk factors associated with the alignment of major roads, and measures taken by the army and BRO to address the same.

[mihir.mehta]

1. Which territory has India lost that the Chinese will "think", in your opinion, is adequate compensation for their "loss" in the Spanggur area?

The territory that has been lost salami slicing all these years - Depsang, Demchok, Gogra Hotsprings area (Where max territory has been lost). Even finger 8 to Finger 4 - which was vacated by us during Kargil and they moved in.

2. Is the Spanggur/Chushul Chinese "loss" the same in tactical/strategic terms as the Indian "loss" somewhere else, wherever (we will find out when you reply to the first point) it is?
3. How will another road to the same area remedy the Chinese "loss"?

Tactical advantage doesn't in any way compensate for the loss of territory. And like i said - they too could live with it having taken so much of our areas over the years - We're living with them sitting on Finger 4 top overlooking our ITBP Post.

[pankajs]

1. Which territory has India lost that the Chinese will "think", in your opinion, is adequate compensation for their "loss" in the Spanggur area?

The territory that has been lost salami slicing all these years - Depsang, Demchok, Gogra Hotsprings area (Where max territory has been lost). Even finger 8 to Finger 4 - which was vacated by us during Kargil and they moved in.

2. Is the Spanggur/Chushul Chinese "loss" the same in tactical/strategic terms as the Indian "loss" somewhere else, wherever (we will find out when you reply to the first point) it is?
3. How will another road to the same area remedy the Chinese "loss"?

Tactical advantage doesn't in any way compensate for the loss of territory. And like i said - they too could live with it having taken so much of our areas over the years - We're living with them sitting on Finger 4 top overlooking our ITBP Post.

1. I did not realize that GOI's latest tactical re-adjustment was to recover "territory that has been lost salami slicing all these years - Depsang, Demchok, Gogra Hotsprings area".

I was under the impression that GOI's sole objective was to get to pre March/April status quo!

2. GOI did NOT start the latest standoff therefore GOI has NEVER shown any inclination to recover "territory that has been lost salami slicing all these years ..." just to get back to the status quo ante as it existed before March/April 2020.

Now coming back to the present, the Chinese have unilaterally tried to settle some territory claimed by both side at the LAC by occupying it, most prominently the area between F4/8 on the norther banks of Pangang Tso. The current re-adjustment around Spanggur/Chushul is exactly to compensate for that, not in terms of grabbing an equivalent or more territory but by creating the necessary ground situation that can be used to grab an equivalent territory should it finally come down to that.

There are other places where the Chinese are supposed to have entered buffers but the details has not been publicized neither has the Indian counter action except for a very generic statement that re-adjustment has been done all across the Ladakh LAC. Given our Spanggur/Chushul play, which has been outstanding, I would presume we would have done similarly outstanding work in other sub-sectors too.

3. In the current standoff, our play in the Spanggur/Chushul sub-sector MORE than compensates for out loss on the northern banks of Pangang Tso. This was apparent to me the day our re-adjustment was declared and has subsequently been confirmed by some very senior retired Military personals.

Coming back to the Pangang tso area where the situation is clear ..

• The Chinese position on Finger 4 overlooks out ITBP Post while out position(s) over looks the Chinese Moldo garrison and its approaches.
• On the northern bank of the Pangang tso, the Chinese have no way of advancing beyond finger 4 except by climbing the ridgeline which is impossible to do in strength AND with equipment! They definitely canNOT induct Mechanized forces beyond Finger 4. Contrast that to the Indian position in the Spangghur/Chushul area. The Spanggur gap will allows the Mechanized Indian forces to easily go and take over the whole Spanggur bowl.
• "Constructing another road" to the Spanggur bowl will NOT compensate the Chinese for their loss of control of the Spanggur gap.

For now I am just discussing tactical angle here but there is strategic angle to what the Indian Army has done in the Spanggur/Chushul area. For details watch and internalize the very excellent presentation (Part -1) by Rohit Vats on this very thread.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PoJNEjuwIU
Ladakh Series-1: Strategic Importance of Chushul Sector

[RaviB]

I just want to give a quick update on what's going on in Chinese media. There is a downturn in the mood.

Their plan started based on an expectation of a tactical victory translating into a strategic victory. Their intention was to force India into strategic submission, I don't think they care much about the territory, except for in a symbolic sense (Rejuvenating China, taking back Chinese territory, etc.). The easiest way to take back the territory and unite the motherland is the 50 cent army and not the PLA. The CCP can shape whatever narrative it wants.

In June, the mood had shifted where the major writers, experts, etc. were all talking about a tactical victory and a strategic stalemate. I think the app bans, economic actions and Indian resolve surprised them.

But for the last couple of weeks, and reading between the lines, their feeling is of a tactical stalemate and a strategic loss. They are in a much worse place in terms of relations with India, far from forcing India into submission, they have increased Indian hostility and resolve. And of course using the SFF was a big deal, the CCP and even Gobar Times were relatively silent about it.

This does not mean they are even close to giving up. The CCP might just decide to give a final push to retrieve the situation as per their original plan. Or have a quick military strike followed by "voluntary restraint" and diplomacy to make sure their image is not damaged too much and they don't take on military damage. If there was any way of getting out of the situation without losing their dignity, they would take it. If they find their chances hopeless, they might just bluster and walk off as if they don't really care about India. Like a bully, "do you know who my father is? The next time you try something, I won't let you off so lightly".

[pankajs]

^^
Perfect .. At a later time, apart from what you have covered, I will probably expand on the "strategic submission" angle, its multiple layers and how it has backfired massively for the Chinese