2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[sanjaykumar]

Deleted

[sanjaykumar]

ManSingh you’re really going to when you find out Francois Gautier is married to a Sikh.

[Suraj]

Suraj-san

See, the thing is whenever anything about the current government is questioned, a legion of warriors spring-up who seem to know everything about everything. Their belief is that they are defending an impeding attack on India ( though India has mostly a peasant army and a peasant CAPF to defend itself ).

Even on this forum, when the protests started, the narrative was that BIF, Khalistani's, paid foreign agents, 19th century peasants have come to mount an attack and capture power. It was very important that I contribute in whatever way I could slightly nudge the narrative.

If a majority of the posts on the forum now debate the farm bills on economic merits, sustainability etc, I am quite glad that it has come to this. It is possible to debate, negotiate a better deal when the focus is an economic grievance. When someone calls you a terrorist, how do you negotiate?

For other poster's, I apologize as I simply do not have the bandwidth to reply to every post. Please do seek independent sources with an open mind.

You have the option of ignoring posts that have no meaningful content, or even reporting harassment where that’s relevant . What I see of your posting is a frustrating lack of detail when it comes to the actual detail of the new laws and concerns that are actually useful and actionable as future amendments to these laws.

Instead, there’s a lot of noise about emotive topics. I don’t care to vent about angry protesters and don’t really waste time calling them BIF or whatever . But along with that I don’t care about any posters self entitled claims about themselves as farmers. That claim only has credibility if you can explain farm related laws and constraints unemotionally - ideally with references. Angry emotional discussions usually result in warnings and bans. It’s the same as in the mil forum - the best folks are the ones who patiently explain with reference material.

If you can quote sections of the laws and how they restrict something or could be written better, fantastic . If you argue ‘these forum people don’t know how hard us farmers work and how our lives are affected’ , then at least I am going to just glance thru and ignore most of it because it’s just noise.

Successive street protests are simply symptom of the lack of legislative opposition for two Lok Sabhas now. It’s not the ruling party’s fault that the opposition can’t win enough seats to be a meaningful opposition. The right to protest is something I support, but never at the cost of disrupting the public in any manner. As such I ignore these protests not because of foreign money and influence but because they’re incredibly disruptive.

The laws are already a done deal . You may not like them but you have to live with it, in the context of this forum . This forum is forward looking.

[ManSingh]

Curious on one question: Is the APMC going to be shut down ? Why can't the farmers who like the APMC so much sell there instead of availing the new freedoms ?

It is a million dollar question if APMC is going to be shut down or not. One of the proposals submitted by Punjab government as a response to the farm bills was to ask the central government to pass a "sunset clause" law under which it will pay Punjab government for procurement for next 10 years. This practice is also known as procurement at MSP.

It has been turned down, so it basically implies that at some point APMC's could be wound down, probably in less than 10 years from now. This is the primary reason for the demand to ask MSP to be codified into a law.

The freedoms part is only relevant to those who gained something out of these laws. Remember only Punjab, Haryana and to some extent Western U.P. sow rice to sell and these states are far from the points of consumption. As a part of green revolution, the rural and procurement networks were setup in these states because these were the most viable at that point of time to ensure food security. This( availability of procurement infra ) is also the reason why most procurement happens in these states vs the rest of India.

Going forward if procurement shifts ( even as a percentage if not fully ) to private firms, it becomes more attractive for private players to setup procurement infra closest to point of consumption and/or cheaper cost of doing business i.e. West Bengal, Bihar and probably some parts of Southern India. Southern India becomes especially attractive with export potential due to distance to ports.

This means that at some point of time, the agrarian economies of North Western India ( esp. with respect to Basmati, Paddy ) will suffer or slowly wind down. There has been no alternative economic proposal to offset this law or to make it gradual either.

There is historical precedence to this. Read the below article in reverse i.e. ending of this policy impacted states that were benefitted the most by it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freight_e ... ion_policy

There is a whole lot more to the impact, politics, industry diversification etc. but let's leave that for another day. Hope it helps.

[rajsunder]

the middlemen are blood suckers. They might keep shouting that they only get 2.5% of the farmers sale as commission, but they loot the farmer for everything.
These brokers provide seeds, pesticide and equipment rental to the farmers at horrendous % of interest. heard it goes from 18% to 30% interest.
They are the ones who are going to loose a lot from this act. Not only that i have also heard that local politicians tend to get a share of every bag sold at these APMC's.
NaMo should stay strong and stick to his commitment to help farmers. Any pull back at this stage will not help him in 2024.

[chetak]

I remember this incident very well.

The poor guys were gunned down like dogs in the street

Lesson on social power: Jat Sikhs protest & block roads. Treated with kids gloves. Sympathetic media. ‘Public’ support pours in. Support from foreign countries. Dalits from Punjab & Haryana protest in Ram Rahim case & 30 are immediately shot dead with cheering from public & media.

via @Abhina_Prakash

[srin]

Curious on one question: Is the APMC going to be shut down ? Why can't the farmers who like the APMC so much sell there instead of availing the new freedoms ?

It is a million dollar question if APMC is going to be shut down or not. One of the proposals submitted by Punjab government as a response to the farm bills was to ask the central government to pass a "sunset clause" law under which it will pay Punjab government for procurement for next 10 years. This practice is also known as procurement at MSP.

It has been turned down, so it basically implies that at some point APMC's could be wound down, probably in less than 10 years from now. This is the primary reason for the demand to ask MSP to be codified into a law.

Raises more question - isn't APMC run by state government ? Is Punjab Govt planning to shut down the APMC ?

[KLNMurthy]

Are the protesters mostly actual farmers or is some significant proportion of them the middlemen who don’t add value?

Check their demands to the gov, murthy gaaru. 2 of the points are not at all related to farm bills. These farmers behaviour in the meeting is also another key point to analyse these farce protests. Zero comments on khalistani presence in protests. Abusing hindus. All these data points tell very different story.

Doesn't matter what the original truth/fact is. These 'farmers' will keep talking about the hurt inflicted by Modiji government.

I have seen their demands. My question was about the composition of the protesters as that may help me understand their demands.

So you can see why deducing their composition solely from their demands doesn’t help me.

[chetak]

Check their demands to the gov, murthy gaaru. 2 of the points are not at all related to farm bills. These farmers behaviour in the meeting is also another key point to analyse these farce protests. Zero comments on khalistani presence in protests. Abusing hindus. All these data points tell very different story.

Doesn't matter what the original truth/fact is. These 'farmers' will keep talking about the hurt inflicted by Modiji government.

I have seen their demands. My question was about the composition of the protesters as that may help me understand their demands.

So you can see why deducing their composition solely from their demands doesn’t help me.

[KLNMurthy]

Curious on one question: Is the APMC going to be shut down ? Why can't the farmers who like the APMC so much sell there instead of availing the new freedoms ?

It is a million dollar question if APMC is going to be shut down or not. One of the proposals submitted by Punjab government as a response to the farm bills was to ask the central government to pass a "sunset clause" law under which it will pay Punjab government for procurement for next 10 years. This practice is also known as procurement at MSP.

It has been turned down, so it basically implies that at some point APMC's could be wound down, probably in less than 10 years from now. This is the primary reason for the demand to ask MSP to be codified into a law.

The freedoms part is only relevant to those who gained something out of these laws. Remember only Punjab, Haryana and to some extent Western U.P. sow rice to sell and these states are far from the points of consumption. As a part of green revolution, the rural and procurement networks were setup in these states because these were the most viable at that point of time to ensure food security. This( availability of procurement infra ) is also the reason why most procurement happens in these states vs the rest of India.

Going forward if procurement shifts ( even as a percentage if not fully ) to private firms, it becomes more attractive for private players to setup procurement infra closest to point of consumption and/or cheaper cost of doing business i.e. West Bengal, Bihar and probably some parts of Southern India. Southern India becomes especially attractive with export potential due to distance to ports.

This means that at some point of time, the agrarian economies of North Western India ( esp. with respect to Basmati, Paddy ) will suffer or slowly wind down. There has been no alternative economic proposal to offset this law or to make it gradual either.

There is historical precedence to this. Read the below article in reverse i.e. ending of this policy impacted states that were benefitted the most by it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freight_e ... ion_policy

There is a whole lot more to the impact, politics, industry diversification etc. but let's leave that for another day. Hope it helps.

For me personally, it doesn’t help much. It sounds vague and obfuscatory and rather condescending. Maybe I am just bad at reading.

But if I try my best to interpret into plain English what you are saying, it sounds like you are saying that private firms are bound to set up rice procurement centers only in TN and AP (e.g.) and therefore the Punjabi rice farmer will have to truck his rice all the way to Tutukudi or Rameswaram, which is prohibitive and make his rice uncompetitive, therefore the Punjabi rice farmer will simply give up producing rice, maybe just give up farming altogether (despite the fertile land and abundant irrigation) and simply sink into despair and nothingness.

The only thing that is currently preventing this horrific outcome is the current highly restrictive practice of farm produce only being allowed to be sold in socialist-era mandis, with a number of entrenched middlemen (which is the classic infrastructure of corruption), and with the FCI setting the purchase price that could be below open market rate, and about which farmers have complained over decades that it is unfairly holding them down.

And, even though the new laws are silent on MSP, Punjab somehow came up with a litmus test (give us a guaranteed payment to buy at MSP for the next 10 years or else) which apparently the central government failed. hence it means that the intent is to shut down the mandis and the MSP system.

And that ties in with the other half of the rationale—mandis will go away, private purchase centers will all be in Tutukudi or Rameswaram, and that will be the end of Punjab.

Am I reading your post correctly?

If I am, then I have to say it is excellent psyops. The Punjabi farmer doesn’t have to be an easily persuadable idiot to buy such a scenario; he just needs to be an ordinary human that leans towards the bird-in-hand view of economic decision making, and maybe feels in general, that as a proud Punjabi he is getting less than his due. Then all it takes is to leverage and magnify the natural uncertainty that exists in any reform, couple it with a constant drumbeat about the presumptive bad faith of Modi (since at bottom, everything is about this low-caste guy from Gujarat who had the nerve to occupy the gaddi in Delhi, and I have seen some of the rhetoric of the agitators), and you’ve got yourself a nice little people’s peasant revolution.

[Tanaji]

@ManSingh ji... regarding losses, would this be a representation of what you have experienced:

A country-wide study measuring crop losses revealed that 3.9% - 6% cereals, 4.3%-6.1% pulses, 2.8%- 10.1% oilseeds, 5.8%-18.1% fruits, and 6.9%-13% vegetables were lost during harvesting, post-harvest activities, handling and storage.2 Post-harvest losses in India stem from a range of factors including lack of post-harvest infrastructure, limited technical know-how on good agricultural practices, imperfect market knowledge, and inadequate market access. Fragmentation of agricultural landholdings and a post-harvest value chain that is riddled with inefficiencies cause PHL to stack up progressively throughout the value chain

https://www.intellecap.com/wp-content/t ... Report.pdf

I don’t think this includes losses after procurement though given the state of FCI and PDS godowns

[Pratyush]

Interesting set of demands from Punjab. WRT, msp.

What I am amazed by is the fact that most of the changes envisioned by the 3 reform bills have been undone by Punjab.

Yet, we are seeing this agitation in Delhi, why?

IMO, the game was given away the moment Kaptan Sahib asked for center to refund Punjab government for msp procurement for the next 10 years. Along with the refusal of this demand by the centre.

This is no longer a problem for the centre. It is a problem created by Congress for congress.

Let's see how they can fix this.

[Tanaji]

The state bills do not become a law until the governor gives his assent which he has not.

[Pratyush]

The state bills do not become a law until the governor gives his assent which he has not.

Then he should give his consent without delay. If the bills are within the scope of the constitution.

[SBajwa]

@ManSingh ji... regarding losses, would this be a representation of what you have experienced:

A country-wide study measuring crop losses revealed that 3.9% - 6% cereals, 4.3%-6.1% pulses, 2.8%- 10.1% oilseeds, 5.8%-18.1% fruits, and 6.9%-13% vegetables were lost during harvesting, post-harvest activities, handling and storage.2 Post-harvest losses in India stem from a range of factors including lack of post-harvest infrastructure, limited technical know-how on good agricultural practices, imperfect market knowledge, and inadequate market access. Fragmentation of agricultural landholdings and a post-harvest value chain that is riddled with inefficiencies cause PHL to stack up progressively throughout the value chain

https://www.intellecap.com/wp-content/t ... Report.pdf

I don’t think this includes losses after procurement though given the state of FCI and PDS godowns

I am not sure if FCI procures pulses, oilseeds, fruits or vegetables. I thought FCI only procures grains. Rest are sold in free market., as per demand. This is the reason that import lobby must be stopped from importing pulses, oilseeds and government should give incentive to farmers to grow these crops. This will also fix the issue of water depletion due to aggressive farming of rice and sugarcane.

[kiranA]

Somepeople made good points about inequality in states w.r.t farm income. But then messed up everything by blaming Punjabi farmers for it. I said it before and i think Mansingh too explained in "social contract" - it was not Punjabi farmer who put a gun to Delhi and got all the benefits. It was Delhi which created the Punjabi setup through FCI driven by food security obsession. They used vast tracks of agricultural land in Punjab/Haryana as some sort of laboratory for hyper intensive farming and used to fill the FCI godowns for food security. Punjabi farmer only responded (and responded admirably) to the incentive and profited from it(that too till late 90s). Then why blame the farmer?

I am not a fan of the way agri is run in Punjab. Even punjabis know there is a problem. They havent diversified in to cash crops or protein like chicken/eggs the way Andhra did. But it takes time and the rug cannot be pulled like this from them.

In andhra we suffered due to this policy of Delhi. Rice surpluses were generated in andhra in 70s itself. But Delhi did not allow any non-basmati exports till 94 or so and then too with heavy restrictions which were not lifted till 2011 - again in the name of food security. At the sametime it promoted Basmati brand worldwide from its own pocket. god only knows how much wealth andhra lost with these policies.

The question to ask is - why does Delhi mess things like this. Why did it not allow all states to participate in food security and create a procurement infra from orissa to bihar?

THe answer is extreme concentration of power in Delhi coupled with sheer incompetency that dances there . On top of it one insecure parivar was ruling then and it had well known contempt for indians all over as "backward". It just went with whatever is closest geographically
and create this. How are punjabi farmers to be blamed for this ?

Now another parivar is in Delhi. If the previous parivar ensured benefits flow only to few states - THis parivar even worse in ensuring benefits only go to corporates which are even few in number.

If anyone thinks farming can be run as for profit business (especially grains) anywhere in the world then they are utterly delusional. It is not like software or manufacturing which can scale up multiple times in short period. An acre can only produce so much. Even if you follow every scientific protocol you may double it. And even if by magic you increase more there is only so much people can eat.

Corporates are here only for hoarding and trading it - they will never enter in to production. There too they WILL make losses and be bailed out by tax payer.

Indian corporate sector is a big value destroyer in itself apart from IT and few trading/FMCG- last year telecom showed consolidated losses of $10 billion, airline industry losses of $600million(several billions this year due to Covid). This is the capacity of indian corporate sector and people expect farmers to be profitable. If you consider air india (which is run as a corporate)- indian govt bails it out year after year with tens of thousands of crores.

If people want orissa or bihar to have the agri prospertiy of Punjab then it will come ONLY with government spending. There is NO other way. This bill which is the start of government walking away from its responsiblity to corporates will be a disaster. You must have govt spends in good procurement infra through mandis with guaranteed MSP etc, good irrigation, transport like in Punjab.

[shaun]

Somepeople made good points about inequality in states w.r.t farm income. But then messed up everything by blaming Punjabi farmers for it. I said it before ........

A classic example of rant , as if delhi trained its gun on punjabi farmers to grow only paddy and wheat !! Pathetic post .

[m_saini]

It just went with whatever is closest geographically and create this. How are punjabi farmers to be blamed for this ?

Any source for this? that they just went with whoever was closer?
Not saying it's untrue, just hard to believe.

[hanumadu]

This is what Punjabis fate is going to be if they keep obstructing reforms.

[hanumadu]

kiranA is a troll. He appears on this forum only when there is a potential opposition to govt...like demonetisation. So far, he hasn't had much success. It will be the same this time.

[fanne]

More than a troll

[srin]

They even lost Nagpur and Pune, which are considered BJP bastions.

It's MLC elections for teachers and graduates constituency. So restricted voters list. Teachers may have voted to MVA to ensure their salaries get paid on time. Also a lot of schools are controlled by Congis and Ncp.

Sorry for the late response. Am I the only one who has never voted in an MLC election ? Even in Karnataka, there is a graduates constituency and I just saw that elections were held last month and I had absolutely no clue.

If this is the case elsewhere too, I wouldn't think that the MLC election as being representative of anything.

[sudarshan]

Now another parivar is in Delhi. If the previous parivar ensured benefits flow only to few states - THis parivar even worse in ensuring benefits only go to corporates which are even few in number.

Previous parivar - okay. What is this "new parivar?" Do you mean the Sangh Parivar? Else it is hard to imagine how Modi, with no family ties, can be referred to as a "parivar."

[Avtar Singh]

There are a millions of rules and regulations in India that need to be thrown on the bonfire,
includes reams of the tax code.

For someone like me, PM Modi has proceeded at a snails pace.

As for all those coming on here thinking they can persuade BR people that the nonsense which
goes on is somehow beneficial for any ordinary Indian/farmer beggars belief.

You know I am surrounded by these types of family members who are, I cannot even be polite..
the british would say they are thicker than.... unrepeatable!

I have been going to India, you can guess where... since 2000, to visit my farther who returned there in
the 1990s... It is now 2020. I have often landed at ATQ.

20 years these very clever people have been trying to build the ATQ to Jalandhar road!!!
These very clever people with the same surname as myself who have cracked all things farming.

Do not worry I say this to my own family members; morons your are morons.
Please feel free to delete if my language is too strong, even my british friends will wince
when I tell them the reality of the situation.
So my language is probably too strong for this forum.

Stop taking ISI/CCP money and try to put what little brains you have towards building/punjab
and India. But somehow I dont think the intelligence is there so only income left is to do the bidding
of ISI/CCP or corruption.

RANT OVER.... sometimes you are not having a discussion with logical and intelligent person...
eg FLIC = Fake Liberal Islamist Communist type or one of their useful idiots...
One has to resort to ad hominem attacks to discredit them, they deserve nothing better.

I have noticed the troll like character of the KiranA chap, one could postpone all reforms for another
50 years.... That maybe a suitable pace (sarcasm, for those that do not understand)

[m_saini]

@sudarshan sir, perhaps they meant parivar as in Modi, the patriarch, and all the "corporates" as his children whom Modi, the demon, will feed with the blood and sweat of the poor farmers

[ManSingh]

It is a million dollar question if APMC is going to be shut down or not. One of the proposals submitted by Punjab government as a response to the farm bills was to ask the central government to pass a "sunset clause" law under which it will pay Punjab government for procurement for next 10 years. This practice is also known as procurement at MSP.

It has been turned down, so it basically implies that at some point APMC's could be wound down, probably in less than 10 years from now. This is the primary reason for the demand to ask MSP to be codified into a law.

Raises more question - isn't APMC run by state government ? Is Punjab Govt planning to shut down the APMC ?

Yes, APMC is run by the state government. By themselves, an APMC could just be a tin shed for all that matters.
The value comes from the central government. It provides punjab government with a credit limit for crop purchase. This means that the state government can give out cash to the farmer who brings his produce to the APMC until it's credit limit is exhausted. Now government being a government will pay as per MSP prices irrespective of what the market value is. The state govt is allowed to take a certain percentage known as mandi fees before transferring the amount to the farmer.

Effectively state government is purchasing for the central government. The commitment to this credit limit for 10 years is what the central government is not willing to commit anymore.

Sure, the state government could keep the facility open, but it needs to find an alternate buyer.

[Sachin]

The state bills do not become a law until the governor gives his assent which he has not.

There is also a caveat for it. If any of the local state law provisions are repugnant to a central law, then President of India's ascent is also required. The bills tabled in Punjab Assembly has provisions repugnant to the three farming laws enacted by the centre. Governor's sign off will not work here.

[ManSingh]

It is a million dollar question if APMC is going to be shut down or not. One of the proposals submitted by Punjab government as a response to the farm bills was to ask the central government to pass a "sunset clause" law under which it will pay Punjab government for procurement for next 10 years. This practice is also known as procurement at MSP.

It has been turned down, so it basically implies that at some point APMC's could be wound down, probably in less than 10 years from now. This is the primary reason for the demand to ask MSP to be codified into a law.

The freedoms part is only relevant to those who gained something out of these laws. Remember only Punjab, Haryana and to some extent Western U.P. sow rice to sell and these states are far from the points of consumption. As a part of green revolution, the rural and procurement networks were setup in these states because these were the most viable at that point of time to ensure food security. This( availability of procurement infra ) is also the reason why most procurement happens in these states vs the rest of India.

Going forward if procurement shifts ( even as a percentage if not fully ) to private firms, it becomes more attractive for private players to setup procurement infra closest to point of consumption and/or cheaper cost of doing business i.e. West Bengal, Bihar and probably some parts of Southern India. Southern India becomes especially attractive with export potential due to distance to ports.

This means that at some point of time, the agrarian economies of North Western India ( esp. with respect to Basmati, Paddy ) will suffer or slowly wind down. There has been no alternative economic proposal to offset this law or to make it gradual either.

There is historical precedence to this. Read the below article in reverse i.e. ending of this policy impacted states that were benefitted the most by it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freight_e ... ion_policy

There is a whole lot more to the impact, politics, industry diversification etc. but let's leave that for another day. Hope it helps.

For me personally, it doesn’t help much. It sounds vague and obfuscatory and rather condescending. Maybe I am just bad at reading.

But if I try my best to interpret into plain English what you are saying, it sounds like you are saying that private firms are bound to set up rice procurement centers only in TN and AP (e.g.) and therefore the Punjabi rice farmer will have to truck his rice all the way to Tutukudi or Rameswaram, which is prohibitive and make his rice uncompetitive, therefore the Punjabi rice farmer will simply give up producing rice, maybe just give up farming altogether (despite the fertile land and abundant irrigation) and simply sink into despair and nothingness.

The only thing that is currently preventing this horrific outcome is the current highly restrictive practice of farm produce only being allowed to be sold in socialist-era mandis, with a number of entrenched middlemen (which is the classic infrastructure of corruption), and with the FCI setting the purchase price that could be below open market rate, and about which farmers have complained over decades that it is unfairly holding them down.

And, even though the new laws are silent on MSP, Punjab somehow came up with a litmus test (give us a guaranteed payment to buy at MSP for the next 10 years or else) which apparently the central government failed. hence it means that the intent is to shut down the mandis and the MSP system.

And that ties in with the other half of the rationale—mandis will go away, private purchase centers will all be in Tutukudi or Rameswaram, and that will be the end of Punjab.

Am I reading your post correctly?

If I am, then I have to say it is excellent psyops. The Punjabi farmer doesn’t have to be an easily persuadable idiot to buy such a scenario; he just needs to be an ordinary human that leans towards the bird-in-hand view of economic decision making, and maybe feels in general, that as a proud Punjabi he is getting less than his due. Then all it takes is to leverage and magnify the natural uncertainty that exists in any reform, couple it with a constant drumbeat about the presumptive bad faith of Modi (since at bottom, everything is about this low-caste guy from Gujarat who had the nerve to occupy the gaddi in Delhi, and I have seen some of the rhetoric of the agitators), and you’ve got yourself a nice little people’s peasant revolution.

The market economics work on something called a demand and supply curve. A private firm needs to find something known as an equilibrium price which basically means it needs to price something suitably so that the quantity it is willing to supply will be equal to the demand in the market. Sorry, you can google for a better unederstanding. I am terrible at explaining.

In layman terms, what it means is that a private firm needs to price rice to sell ( irrespective of at what price it bought it) very high in north western India because the demand is low or close to zero. Low demand also usually means the price any supplier will get is low. This makes discovering the right price impossible i.e. the business of rice is simply unviable. Closer to consumption sources, the demand is very high. So suppliers can price their product lower to be able to turn a profit or sell everything they have in inventory.

In other words, market conditions make it less attractive for a firm to attempt to do business in a market which has no sale value for what they own. They could theoretically truck everything to anywhere but private business don't have a social obligation. They would love to purchase as much as needed for the market in which they operate from the cheapest source. Moving food grains involves logistics which will make long distance purchases expensive than local. While reading above, please keep in mind that we have a surplus. So private firms will have a choice and the limiting factor will not be availability of food grains.

In my limited knowledge of economics, there is no other way this can plag out i.e. there will be a downward shift in rice cultivation in north western India. This is fine as the cultivation is artificially supported in these regions anyways. The issue is what happens to farmers who for decades have built a source of livelihood from the market being skewed a certain way, mainly due to the encouragement by the central government for whatever initial reasons. You and I can take a job loss and will slowly but surely be able to find an alternative. It is not so easy as a farmer to find an alternate crop to grow with the uncertainty as to who will purchase it.

[Kaivalya]

In my limited knowledge of economics, there is no other way this can plag out i.e. there will be a downward shift in rice cultivation in north western India. This is fine as the cultivation is artificially supported in these regions anyways. The issue is what happens to farmers who for decades have built a source of livelihood from the market being skewed a certain way, mainly due to the encouragement by the central government for whatever initial reasons. You and I can take a job loss and will slowly but surely be able to find an alternative. It is not so easy as a farmer to find an alternate crop to grow with the uncertainty as to who will purchase it.

Mansinghji - here is the summary of what I have understood from your arguments so far

1. It is not the content of the bill : But what could be the state of the displaced middlemen and some farmers in the next 10 years. Already it has been established that this is not sudden, this is not the central government's grand sabotage on reneging promises made during food security drives etc.

2. The fact is that it is true for all industries...no one gets guarantees over long period of time from the government (especially central) that their industry and profit margin will be protected. Please dont see the issue as an emotional "food issue" as every business man out there in any industry will lose his "food" if the business goes down. And every productive business type is important for the growth of the country.

3. There is no relationship to what you are arguing as the problem/solution to the protest demands even ignoring the rhetoric.

4. There is no basis for state government demanding that the central government has to deal with essentially a local labor displacement issue for what helps other states

5. Even if all the above are false, it makes no sense to stop the roads in delhi holding someone else's business , job, life hostage. How will this help the displaced farmers in the next 10 years of hartal?

Now that this issue has managed to get all the local parties united - the focus must be how to really help the displaced farmers and not posturing on the roads making the central government the villain. This is not different from any other political playbook. It reeks of the same BIF plays that starts fight between a state vs the other, state vs central , one community vs the other etc. No one says this is terrorism but I feel like your emotive state is being used by people with no real solutions and temporary selfish gains

[bharathp]

The issue is what happens to farmers who for decades have built a source of livelihood from the market being skewed a certain way, mainly due to the encouragement by the central government for whatever initial reasons. You and I can take a job loss and will slowly but surely be able to find an alternative. It is not so easy as a farmer to find an alternate crop to grow with the uncertainty as to who will purchase it.

think about the guy who only learnt how to be a typist and never learnt how to operate a word processor.
so all the system has to bend to keep this guy in employment at the expense of moving forward?

rice cultivation in Punjab to be sold to TN itself shows the skewed nature of Punjab farmers. you are growing something which you dint pay the transport costs - the tax paying people did. you want farmers to sustain this way by leaching on the tax payers. I demand an end to this immediately- stop wasting my tax money. the Punjab farmers sons need to either skill up or find different ways to make money just like every one else in the country.

or else I demand that everyone's employment be guaranteed by the govt. why only guarantee the Punjab farmers' employment? that too paid by overworked salaried class?

"encouragement of central govt" - is a blame on previous system/govt. if you want to live in stone age, don't drag everyone else with it and certainly don't ask for tax payers subsidy for it.

[DharmaB]

This may be OT, but wish more people listen to this must listen important speech on war and peace, non-violence in India's context which is very relevant in present situations. Listen from 25:00 for the exact topic to begin.

https://oshoworld.com/wp-content/upload ... iti_01.mp3

[m_saini]

It is not so easy as a farmer to find an alternate crop to grow with the uncertainty as to who will purchase it.

Except it actually is:

Reducing Dependence on Paddy Cultivation, Punjab Shifts to Alternate Crops

The area under paddy cultivation has been reduced considerably in Punjab, with nearly 7.5 lakh acres shifted from paddy to alternate crops during this kharif (summer) season, the government said on Sunday.

The area under non-basmati paddy during this season was 57.27 lakh acres compared to 64.80 lakh acres in the previous kharif season.

A reduction of 11.5% in a single season.

State’s farmers discover there is life beyond rice and wheat, take to animal farming, fishery

With extensive rice farming in Punjab taking an increasing toll on groundwater reserves and soil health, government agencies are now asking farmers to diversify into profitable allied trades including dairy and pig farming and fisheries.

In a survey, Punjab's soil and water conservation department found that on a five-acre farm, rice-wheat rotation cropping yielded net returns of Rs 43,440, while the returns from rearing 10 crossbred cows on the same area was almost twice, at about Rs 82,810.

"There is no dearth of viable alternatives and farm enterprise which can easily replace the income being obtained from a crop like paddy," concludes the report.

Sukhminder Singh of Uppali in Barnala district rears fish in a pond constructed on 3.5 acres of land that was earlier used for paddy. Singh still grows wheat and paddy in an adjoining field, and has constructed a shed to breed pigs alongside the pond, the waste from which is used to feed the fish. Pork sells for Rs 80-100 per kg and Singh isn't complaining.

The above article was from 2018, in case anyone thinks the Hindu fascist Modi is printing fake stories to deny sikh farmers their birthright.

[vimal]

What is the equation between jutt Sikh and Khatri Sikhs? I have a Khatri Sikh friend who is as casteist as it gets and believes his caste is superior to Jutts and that Nanak dev ji was also pure Khatri.

[chetak]

freeloader amarinder singh demands priority in covid vaccinations for punjab

should the govt not declare an MSP for the vaccine and if so, how high should it be to support the poor pharma workers who are producing these vaccines even at the serious risks to their lives.

amarinder is another run of the mill political clown who is desperate to be re elected


Amarinder writes to PM, seeks priority allocation of COVID-19 vaccine for Punjab

Singh also sought clarity as to whether the COVID-19 vaccination would be entirely funded by the Government of India, including the cost of vaccines.

Chandigarh: Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday, seeking priority allocation of the COVID-19 vaccine on account of its higher mortality rate than other states.

[vimal]

Half the state is junkie why bother?

[Shanmukh]

Looks like BJP has got 35% of the vote in the GHMC polls, practically on par with the TRS, which has just 0.3% of the vote higher. As the Congress comes crashing down, expect the BJP to expand into the eastern and southern parts of the state. We are looking at BJP being in the contest for ~500 of the 543 seats in the next Lok Sabha. Andhra, and TN are the only states where the BJP has <10% of the vote, it seems. And BJP will do decently well in Kerala in the coming local bodies polls and the assembly elections next year.

I had predicted, during the LS19 polls, that by 2024, BJP would be the ruling party or principal opposition in all states except perhaps Andhra and TN. Looks like that is going to happen.

https://www.thehansindia.com/news/citie ... 016-660313

[m_saini]

Here's an amazing article (from 2015) on Punjab's issues.

Punjab's paddy dilemma

In 2006, Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh faced an unprecedented situation. “A law telling farmers when to sow paddy! No one will accept it,” said the chief minister when a draft legislation prohibiting rice cultivation before a notified date was presented to him. But this time he did not agree. “Elections are due next year and having such a law for farmers would be suicidal for us,” he said.

The 2007 elect-ions brought the Shiromani Akali Dal–Bharatiya Janata Party alliance to power. The draft legislation was again presented to the new Chief Minister, Parkash Singh Badal. But he too gave a cold response. Political establishment in Punjab had always been reluctant to carry out agricultural reforms because farmers are a major vote bank. As a result, the state has paid a heavy cost in terms of water and soil resources.

Kudos to the current GoI and Modi for pushing ahead with the reforms despite the obvious "suicidal nature" of such reforms. And people wonder why "some posters rush to his defense".

Origins of the crisis

During the late 1970s and early 1980s, which was the Green Revolution era, Punjab and Haryana shifted from their traditional crops to the wheat-paddy cultivation cycle. However, the problem resurfaced after the farmers were introduced to a new short-duration hybrid rice variety, Govinda, in 1993-94. The variety matured in 60 days and was, therefore, popularly called sathi. It allowed farmers to complete two rice crop cycles in one kharif season (April to October). This increased income for farmers because the yield had doubled and the government’s minimum support price (MSP) regime was giving assured returns. These crises led to the creation of PSFC in 2005. One such popular advertisement was in the form of an appeal from eminent agriculture scientists—“Chonne hetho rakba katao. Pani bachao, Punjab bachao” (Reduce area under rice. Save water, save Punjab).

“Despite this initial success, the efforts would go waste if the Central and state governments do not adopt the policy of crop diversification and stop measures such as free power and diesel subsidy,” says a senior official from the agriculture department of Haryana on condition of anonymity. He says that since farmers do not have to pay for power, they use pumps carelessly.

Farmers still angry

The farmers have accepted the law, but has it been a wilful acceptance? Jaswinder Singh of Longowal village in Punjab’s Sangrur district says the law has been forced upon farmers. In 2009 when it was enacted, 17 farmer organisations in the region gave several representations against the law to Sangrur’s deputy commissioner. (Never happy).

What are the reasons for this acute water crisis?
After the Green Revolution when India became self-sufficient in foodgrains, successive governments continued to focus on cereals like wheat and rice. Since Punjab and Haryana were the food bowl states, they were always expected to meet the country's need. So a kind of pressure was created to outperform earlier achievements and these expectations were being fulfilled at the cost of water and soil which the state governments and the Centre were reluctant to see. By the time alarm was raised, it was too late.

Course correction

“The biggest hurdle is the MSP psychology and the government is responsible for developing this mentality. Nothing is more profitable than growing wheat and rice because the government buys these two commodities. If the agriculture department convinces farmers in Punjab to diversify to maize they do not have the government to buy it from them and farmers don’t want to take risks,” says a noted economist requesting anonymity.

Last from me on this subject.

[chetak]

now what...........

or is this not palatable to the many supporters of "panjab's farmers"


Amidst protests by Punjab farmers against the farm laws, farmers from various States request the centre not to repeal them

Amidst the ongoing protests by farmers from Punjab against the historic farm laws, farmers from across the country have come forward to thank Prime Minister Narendra Modi and requested the Centre to not bow down to the demands of the protestors. These farmers from various states, including Punjab, have said that the new farm laws have been beneficial to them, and said that these should not be repealed as demanded by the farmers mostly from Punjab.

Kulwant Singh, a farmer from Bathinda in Punjab stated, “I am a farmer. We have been following the occupation for ages. The Ordinance brought in by the government will benefit the farmers.” He stated that the farmers have been looking up to the government to ensure fair pricing for their produce. “We can now sell anywhere we want. Some people are spreading rumours and indulging in scaremongering over MSP. The government hand other political leaders have assured us of the MSP,” Singh said. He further added that only those, whose vested interests are compromised by the new far laws, are the ones actively spreading rumours about it. While thanking PM Modi, he emphasised that the middlemen will be eliminated and farmers will be benefitted.

[OmkarC]

MEA Jaishankar boycotts a COVID-meeting led by Canada in retaliation for Trudeau's shameless meddling in our internal affairs..

https://www.dailypioneer.com/2020/page1 ... eting.html

This is the great attitude of Modi's India.. takes no BS from anyone.

Though Trudeau has some made-in-Canada initiative for Covid vaccines, dont think they can scale on time..Gov should up the price of COVID vaccine's by 1000x for Canada.. Khalistan tax

[Cain Marko]

now what...........

or is this not palatable to the many supporters of "panjab's farmers"


Amidst protests by Punjab farmers against the farm laws, farmers from various States request the centre not to repeal them

Amidst the ongoing protests by farmers from Punjab against the historic farm laws, farmers from across the country have come forward to thank Prime Minister Narendra Modi and requested the Centre to not bow down to the demands of the protestors. These farmers from various states, including Punjab, have said that the new farm laws have been beneficial to them, and said that these should not be repealed as demanded by the farmers mostly from Punjab.

Kulwant Singh, a farmer from Bathinda in Punjab stated, “I am a farmer. We have been following the occupation for ages. The Ordinance brought in by the government will benefit the farmers.” He stated that the farmers have been looking up to the government to ensure fair pricing for their produce. “We can now sell anywhere we want. Some people are spreading rumours and indulging in scaremongering over MSP. The government hand other political leaders have assured us of the MSP,” Singh said. He further added that only those, whose vested interests are compromised by the new far laws, are the ones actively spreading rumours about it. While thanking PM Modi, he emphasised that the middlemen will be eliminated and farmers will be benefitted.

Time for BJP to organize a counter protest by other farmers from across the country. Doodh ka doodh, paani ka paani.