Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

dhyana · Post by **dhyana** » 06 Dec 2020 13:41

Agree with a number of points put forward by Manas. A few thoughts- take them for what it's worth:

-That mask diagram from Australia is certainly meant for general public consumption, and the gist of what its trying to convey is laudable. Masks do help reduce spread, but it's quite dangerous to say zero chance (or even "very low" risk)- because that's pure unadulterated garbage, and frankly I'm surprised this is being put out by a government health ministry (albeit a local one in this case). I guess explaining the facts (which inconveniently change as we learn more about Covid-19's pathogenesis) in a simple manner is thought to be beyond the comprehension of the general public. But some basic facts could have been explained in simple terms, and publicly reinforced in a consistent manner.

-The day that Covid-19 was found to be caused by a Coronavirus is the day that people should have been advised to wear masks. The term used in medicine to help prevent the spread of infections caused by 'similar' microbes is called "droplet precautions." Handwashing and mask usage are key components. Anyone who was saying that we shouldn't use masks- and that included 'a lot' of US bigwigs- is guilty of helping fuel the fire. No excuses. Manas is spot on.

-Masks help, but perhaps 50% at best reduction in transmitting the disease for the simple surgical masks, and some unspecified protection level for catching the disease. One obviously needs a N95 mask for 'very low risk' spread; and no, it's not zero % chance as per that diagram. Since transmission could happen thru other mucosa (i.e., eyes). Lots of factors involved (indoors vs outdoors, shouting vs talking vs remaining silent, mask types, duration of exposure, how 'infective' the spreaders are, ad infinitum).

-Social distancing helps- in fact this is the number one way to stop the spread, far more so than universal masking. A person being 50 feet away from another person isn't going to transmit the virus, period. But, we are social beings living in democracies. Most countries can't lock people up in their homes (Wuhan) or their dorms (Singapore), suppress all travel (Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii, etc.), etc. So, we need all the other mitigating factors so that we can remain social. But we let down our guard, we take off masks and mingle/eat/protest/gather with 'safe' family.

-Many law enforcement in the US are former military. They don't like being spit upon in protests, told that they are systemically racist, and seeing their political leadership convey hypocrisy by the boatload (or French Laundry load?). It causes poor morale and directly leads to poor enforcement of these health directives and recommendations.

-The degree of variability in business/social restrictions in the US is mind-boggling. Oftentimes, the list of 'exceptions' to 'lock-downs' ran to multiple pages. Large stores open while small shops closed, etc. People think there is inconsistent application of the rules, which may/may not be politically motivated. In a sense, they're right. That also leads to poor reception from the public.

And so, there will always be reservoirs for the virus, and it will keep flaring up like whack-a-mole. Unless extreme measures are taken (as per above examples), or for the rest of us- widespread vaccination. If ever there was a disease where the benefits of universal vaccination outweigh the risks, this is it.

srai · Post by **srai** » 06 Dec 2020 20:09

The high-speed visualizations illustrating airflow when breathing and coughing using homemade face coverings

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Dec 2020 00:59

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile - WOW!!!!

A team lead by Manu Prakash developed a Low-cost, fast saliva test for COVID-19.
This is at-home COVID-19 test .. costing $5 of less, fast (<30 minutes) and accurate.

For those who many not know, Manu Prakash, at present a professor at Stanford, graduated from IIT Kanpur (BTech) and did his MS and PhD from MIT... He, of course, is quite famous for inventions likeFoldscope (I have mentioned him quite a few times in brf before - I still remember many years ago when he presented Foldoscope in one of the IIT meets).

Now since this is already in mainstream news .. allow me to post it here. (Proud moment - IITK ka tempo high hai)

Story: http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2 ... udied.html

I am glad that there are indications that such devices (this or such other low cost fast tests) can become quite popular in USA. Up till now FDA was not giving okay (or taking longer time to approve) or people were not interested (there are still people who are anti-maskers and think it is all a hoax) but things are changing and along with vaccinations, massive testing may help to control the spread of the virus.

With Biden admin, hopefully more people will listen to scientists..
---
Meanwhile: Pfizer becomes first company to file for emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine in India.

srai · Post by **srai** » 07 Dec 2020 05:58

srai · Post by **srai** » 07 Dec 2020 06:07

Different info graph variations to the Australian council one:

University of Kansas Health

Nebraska Medicine

Inter mountain Healthcare

... and so on. Basic message being communicated is the same across.

dhyana · Post by **dhyana** » 07 Dec 2020 08:50

Agree those diagrams are definitely better than the Autralian one- they didn't claim zero chance of transmission. Though Australia (and Victoria in particular) have very strict coronavirus precautions in general. I've collated over 800 articles regarding this pandemic, and it's striking how different the national approaches have been for dealing with it.

One can argue the exact percentages (and difference b/w lab conditions experimental results vs real-life lay-person usage of whatever mask they have on-hand, however old/shabby, etc.). Even the Lancet article acknowledges the importance of distancing (and that too, a superior intervention at 3-feet in their study). The recommended distances vary by locale, typically 6 feet recommended in the US- and certainly some studies have the relative merits of masks and distancing flip/flop; the specifics vary. Also, when masked, one tends to speak louder to be heard- thus more volume of air and droplets/viral particles. But masks work- no doubt.

The more important aspect is there hasn't been good consistent messaging of the whole range of public health measures needed, at least in the US (especially with respect to social distancing- which is critical, and to a lesser degree, masking- which is also critical). The messaging has been politicized ad nauseam here. In my own 'purple' county, there was no mask mandate until the governor ordered it statewide in June. The county public health director is an infectious disease specialist- so perhaps he was taking a siesta during his entire medical training?

And what of social distancing? Every politician who turns a blind eye to protests is most certainly not following the science, and complicit in the spread of Covid-19. The less said the better regarding the scientific integrity of those '1000 health professionals' no objection certificate during the height of the social protests. Then again, it's not as if this inconsistency is specific to the US. I see few masks and little social distancing in the anti-CAA and Farmer protests... just more super-spreader events.

The nature of restrictions on exactly which retail stores, restaurants, and other businesses/activities that are closed or allowed to open is also strange. Neither rhyme nor reason seem to apply. At least the Pot shops and Liquor stores have been untouched and remained open throughout as 'essential services'- be still my heart.

Who will enforce those restrictions against the much more common mini-spreader events- gatherings of family and friends for the holidays?

So, the virus will continue to percolate/spread. Let's hope with the winter coming, the numbers don't increase again in India. Though the resurgence in Europe and the US during their earlier winter onset bodes ill for what is in store.

Mass vaccination cannot arrive soon enough. The fact that there are a fair number of anti-vaxxers out there, and even health professionals here that don't want to take it, is quite discouraging. Hopefully those attitudes will change. Per several studies (including some referenced by posters earlier in this thread), Indians are more supportive of universal vaccination as compared to their Western counterparts. That's very hopeful. The French, the least- that's strange.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Dec 2020 10:30

Over the weekend attending the IIT2020 conference was very interesting. There were close to 15,000 listeners in some sessions, and 250+ speakers in many groups. We had Narendra Modi, Vivek Murthy, Piyush Goyal, Ex Australian PM but *many* leading US scientists and Indian scientists, industry leaders were there. Of course, one of the most important topic was Covid. (other topic of my interest was ISRO/Nasa space, global warming, energy, quantum computing and education) There were quite a excellent people from both US and India. (Was impressed that Dr Murthy was able to devote that much time in Q&A etc - even though he was obviously quite busy)

Was also impressed that people like Rudd (Australia), Indian leaders etc were there in middle of night (local time)..and

Though host were Americans - leadership of Modi was much admired . People were also very excited by Biden - as covid fight has to be done globally. I am really impressed that Modi's credibility and respect and leadership in the world is now being recognized all over.

Glad that Dr Vivek Murthy will be, as I and many others were saying is going to be Surgeon General (It is now a breaking news reported by NY Times etc). The new CDC chief (Walensky) is also very good/and well respected globally. Biden has a good team. People like Atlas etc are finally gone. Fauci is very happy to continue with Biden. Hope things go well.

Many small things look good - for example Zoom (whose coo, btw is Indian-American) will be opening up a center in Bangalore - (project Echo) and will be providing backbone network and capacity to provide millions of online sessions to train doctors/health_care workers globally for distribution of vaccines... Fed-Ex (again coo is IITian - Rajesh Subramaniam who spoke - is also getting ready with if fleet of aircrafts - needed cold storage (for vaccines) and ready to work for Indian distributions also.

Please stay safe. I will leave you with one advice Dr Murthy gave - call your parents (and family) everyday - as he does.

.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Dec 2020 10:47

So, the virus will continue to percolate/spread. Let's hope with the winter coming, the numbers don't increase again in India. Though the resurgence in Europe and the US during their earlier winter onset bodes ill for what is in store.

FWIW - Future is difficult to predict but at present the "super" model is, thankfully, predicting that end of February 2020, India's numbers will dwindle down to almost zero. (See my message and graphs around 16th October).. reposting one of the graphs..

This is about 2 months old graph - but values are still quite okay ..

Yellow line - is what we think is best estimate (knowing what we know about mask habits etc in India)
Green - If the janata is not that disciplined in Dusherra /Diwali etc ... (Remember this graph I posted some two months ago)
But in either case by the end of February (even without vaccines) India's number will be under control.
Red line - If we did not have mask rules etc --- (situation in many places in US who do not believe in masks)
(Black line - If we do a lockdown like we did in April etc..)

(These models show fairly bad situation for US and Europe)

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Dec 2020 12:50

With Bharat Bandh protest through 8th Dec. and at least 11 major opposition parties supporting it, expect major spike in covid cases around NCR next week and followed by deaths.

The same stupidity as in the US with BLM type protesting around major US metros last spring and summer.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 07 Dec 2020 18:21

Amber G. wrote:
Please stay safe. I will leave you with one advice Dr Murthy gave - call your parents (and family) everyday - as he does. .

Absolutely agree. Never before have we faced such a pandemic in living memory. Now, more than anything, family is important. We moved my in-laws to the US in early May, as soon as we could. We have a zoom meeting with the extended clan every week.

One silver lining in all of this is that families have come closer, we talk and see each other far more (virtually at least) than we ever did.

On a slightly different note. Trump is being made out to be the devil and Fauci an angel. Both statements are wrong (I am talking only about the COVID situation). Some people I meet want to kiss Fauci's feet, think he is God incarnate. Nothing could be farther from the truth, but as with other things in this polarized country, if you hate Trump, you automatically love those who are seen to be in opposition to him.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Dec 2020 20:31

The so called believers in science did not nominate Dr. Vivek Murthy as head of US HHS. Another crooked politician instead. That means Biden administration has no real plan except for inheriting Trump vaccines, then claiming credit.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 07 Dec 2020 21:39

Fauci has a lot of death on his hands -- guy actually came on TV and scoffed at the idea of wearing masks and the guy was the head of the CDC back in march, and he had the country's attention.

Bah, masks, who needs them?

He then handed out half-dozen contradictory statement on masks in the following months, and now he is being touted as the voice of sanity, by the rest of lying vermin in the US media.

Now the same CBS is whitewashing his incompetence by pretending he is some sort of savior who was held back by trump

The Indian govt. has a more admirable track record of caring for public health in this pandemic, as we can see from the comparatively low death and infection rates, not least because the Indian public seems a lot smarter than the significant "we don't need no masks to suffocate our freedom" crowd in the US.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Dec 2020 21:54

This is because the Indian public has a lot of common sense. Yes, India has its share of cranks, but as a percentage it is lower than the US.

From my own family and seeing the advice from Ayush Ministry, Ayurvedic medicines are reducing the impact of Coronavirus.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 05:06

@Dishaji I am generally posting here to mainly to leave a scientists perspective for readers (at least those who may be interested) and not engaging in unproductive debates but let me comment on one aspect. Hope it will be taken in positive way and these comments will be useful for others.

I had people from IITs, Stanfords, and MITs on my team, and few of them are arrogant despicable vermins. And some of them are indeed great souls..

Now, no one is saying that IIT (or MIT - take your pick) is necessary or sufficient to become successful but institutes do help. Any way my experience with IIT is vastly different than yours...Of course, I am proud of my alma mater. A gold medal from IIT opens doors and opportunities and networking is is quite valuable. In contrast to "arrogant despicable vermin" most I interact/respect are nice people - including a "Bharat Ratna" (one of my prof who taught us).. many well respected professors, CEO's of companies like Google, IBM. Most are not only accomplished but are modest and great human beings. This is why, for example Modi, opened the IIT2020 meet - and people like Piyush Goyal, Ex Australian PM, top scientists and government officials from US (like Dr. Vivek Murthy) attended the meet.

My perspective for Foldscope is quite different from you. With support from people like Modi, and Bill Gates, there are *millions* of Foldscopes in all over the world and some of the work which required *thousands of dollars* of research microscope is being done by innovative people. There is a new version by the lab - a cheap electron microscope (which present cost about $500,000 - could be replaced by about $150). Anyway, in the hand of bright people, these things are not "crap"

Coming to covid - Prakash labs (and similar innovative approaches in other institutes and people - but I am just taking one example) is given credit by Bharat Forge - which produces ventilator in India.. And there are many smaller companies which are producing N95 Masks using those designs.

Let me just put a source - an article in Hindu a few days ago:Solutions in the kitchen sink: The work of Manu Prakash

I know, it is much easier to call something "crap" or criticize it but it is not very helpful.

Stay safe.
And just to show no hard feelings - here is info about a lecture which you may enjoy -
An lecture by none other than Manjul Bhargava about Ramanujan on December 22, 7:30 PM (Indian Time) courtesy by Vigyan Prasar and IIT Mumbai:
youtube dot com /user/vigyanprasar1

(For those who may not know, Ramanujan and Manjul Bhargava (India's first Fields Medal winner) are among the greatest mathematicians of India in 20th century - can do a google for details - would be a very interesting lecture

)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Dec 2020 05:10

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bharat- ... rt-2335492
Bharat Biotech applies for emergency authorisation for Made in India vaccine, Covax: inactivated virus vaccine, easy to transport, store.
apparently this vaccine will be available from April 2021. Then why haste in getting approval?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Dec 2020 05:11

Serum Institute of India applies for emergency use of COVISHIELD https://twitter.com/adarpoonawalla/stat ... 17249?s=24

Covishield is essentially the Oxford vaccine -- ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2

SII is into phase 3 trial of Oxford vaccine in India, however they are doing 2 full doses which yielded 62% effectiveness in UK. The findings will unlock the puzzle behind confusing claims over efficacy of this vaccine https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ce=twitter

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 08 Dec 2020 06:13

IndraD wrote:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bharat- ... rt-2335492
Bharat Biotech applies for emergency authorisation for Made in India vaccine, Covax: inactivated virus vaccine, easy to transport, store.
apparently this vaccine will be available from April 2021. Then why haste in getting approval?

I am optimistically interpreting this as meaning they have had no adverse events and no deaths from Covid-19 so far in the cohort of patients who have received the first shot of the vaccine. Since the EUA process is not clearly defined in India, its possible they can get an approval without waiting as long as the other manufacturers.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 12:00

Meanwhile: Incredible (Breaking News: Trump administration officials passed when Pfizer offered in the summer to sell the U.S. more coronavirus vaccine doses,.... Now Pfizer may not be able to provide more doses to the U.S. until next June... unbelievable incompetence. (Makes no sense why it was done.

Canada has secured an agreement with Pfizer to begin early delivery of doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine.

Edited later: NO it is NOT a fake news (but it will not stop Trump to tweet it is a fake news)

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Dec 2020 12:11

^^^Fake news peddled by the NYT. There are 5 vaccine candidates for the US including the Moderna vaccine. In June 2020, Phase I/II of BioNTech BNT162b1 vaccine results were not announced until later. Getting into a fixed contract for partially effective vaccine before data comes out would be even worse. See the link from Nature August 2020:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2639-4

The Moderna vaccine is 95% effective. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said this week that the average American can expect to be vaccinated by the "second quarter" Apr-Jun of 2021.

This is indeed fake news to push a political point as opposed to actually securing sufficient doses from various manufacturers. Pfizer and other pharma companies are upset with the Trump administration Executive Order on price controls on drugs. They are waiting for the crooks of the Biden administration to reverse the EO and return to the theft of the common person.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 12:13

IndraD wrote:
SII is into phase 3 trial of Oxford vaccine in India, however they are doing 2 full doses which yielded 62% effectiveness in UK. The findings will unlock the puzzle behind confusing claims over efficacy of this vaccine

From what I heard/read -- I. AstraZeneca/ Oxford vaccine has reported 62-90% efficacy — but the 90% was from a lower dose trial that was sorta by accident. Hence they are doing another low dose trial to confirm and be extra sure. Per purchase orders - India went bit on the AstraZeneca Oxford one, one of the cheapest—8-10x cheaper than Pfizer and Moderna, and which doesn’t need freezing. India has ordered very large number of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine but still 2/3 going elsewhere outside India..

Gamaleya vaccine has reported 92% efficacy (but results per many are not reliable)..

(The high efficacy of Pfizer and Moderna also effecting vaccine trials of others .. ethical questions -- is placebo now justified for those in trials if we know there is a 90% vaccine so methodology in new trials may differ)

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Dec 2020 12:35

The AstraZeneca vaccine is a vector vaccine which is more easily stored. The mRNA vaccines require very cold storage and if not properly handled would become ineffective. There maybe some sales mischief going on with AstraZeneca. It remains to be seen how effective these mRNA vaccines are in actual large numbers vaccinated.

Types of Vaccines
Currently, there are three main types of COVID-19 vaccines that are or soon will be undergoing large-scale (Phase 3) clinical trials in the United States. Below is a description of how each type of vaccine prompts our bodies to recognize and protect us from the virus that causes COVID-19. None of these vaccines can give you COVID-19.

mRNA vaccines contain material from the virus that causes COVID-19 that gives our cells instructions for how to make a harmless protein that is unique to the virus. After our cells make copies of the protein, they destroy the genetic material from the vaccine. Our bodies recognize that the protein should not be there and build T-lymphocytes and B-lymphocytes that will remember how to fight the virus that causes COVID-19 if we are infected in the future.

Protein subunit vaccines include harmless pieces (proteins) of the virus that cause COVID-19 instead of the entire germ. Once vaccinated, our immune system recognizes that the proteins don’t belong in the body and begins making T-lymphocytes and antibodies. If we are ever infected in the future, memory cells will recognize and fight the virus.

Vector vaccines contain a weakened version of a live virus—a different virus than the one that causes COVID-19—that has genetic material from the virus that causes COVID-19 inserted in it (this is called a viral vector). Once the viral vector is inside our cells, the genetic material gives cells instructions to make a protein that is unique to the virus that causes COVID-19. Using these instructions, our cells make copies of the protein. This prompts our bodies to build T-lymphocytes and B-lymphocytes that will remember how to fight that virus if we are infected in the future.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 12:40

For US: From what I know - From Moderna - there are 20M doses in December and 100M for Q1 2021. Pfizer for US is 50M (=100/2) available right away and it is less than many thought.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 08 Dec 2020 12:49

^^^Which should cover some 60 million persons in the US who are age 65+ in the month of Dec. 2020 alone. The Biden-Harris team will be very upset knowing by the time they take office on 20 JAN 2021, that the covid death rate will have declined considerably.

dhyana · Post by **dhyana** » 08 Dec 2020 17:02

As typical, there is quite a bit of sensationalism in the reporting all around- but that is anything but atypical in this crazy year. Some points to keep in mind- apologize for those for whom this is old news:

-Nothing like Operation Warp Speed has been tried before in the biologic sciences. The stakes were high and the goals were most certainly politicized, but credit must go where credit is due. Especially considering that the knives were clearly out if there was anything even resembling the swine flu vaccine debacle under President Ford. There were tell-tale hints of that when possible autoimmune reactions were reported in the AstraZeneca trial earlier in the summer (it was later reported that the multiple sclerosis case was a pre-existing condition; it is a known issue that live vaccines can precipitate flare-ups of autoimmune diseases). Historically, only about 30% of vaccines ever successfully complete trials anyway.

-Likewise, Big Pharma does not typically fund research into products that aren't going to have a theoretical US market- that's where the money is. Yes, in this case, the EU was going to buy any suitable vaccine candidates, but the initial funding carrot (OWS contracts) being dangled out there was critical to accelerate the research process. BioNTech may have received some modest German funding, but Pfizer did the heavy lifting. AstraZeneca received initial British funding as well. Pfizer also received a conditional funding contract from OWS; they were fairly unique in declining funding the actual research. Pfizer has a big enough bank balance to do these sorts of things independently.
BioNTech, CureVac bag $745M in German funding for COVID-19 vaccine hopefuls.

-In most cases, the OWS contracts dwarfed other countries' funding, and they came early. The funding commitments (and the timelines for contract signing) by OWS is there for all to see.
Fact Sheet: Explaining Operation Warp Speed.

-However it pans out, it does seem that there is a tighter linkage with the US government's support for Moderna- as evidenced by its close NIH collaboration. The US government will get its mRNA vaccines. And it will get a significant smattering of others as well- as mentioned by other posters, there was a purposeful funding of multiple candidates, to minimize risk and guarantee at least 1 or 2 candidates would be successful by the end of 2020.

-The AstraZeneca trials were delayed by the aforementioned autoimmune scare. The Moderna trials were delayed by not recruiting 'enough' minority patients early on. And the Pfizer results were delayed ostensibly by their 'fear' of the results not being 'trusted'. As such, they entered into discussions with the FDA to change their pre-approved trial protocol and delay announcement of interim results; any deviation from FDA approved protocol is a Big Deal, and hence the negotiations- by the time this was fleshed out, they had even more patients than 'needed' for their interim analysis. Of course, more patients instills more statistical confidence, which could improve 'confidence' in a politicized environment. Nonetheless, there was an intentionally delayed analysis- more grist for the political mill.
What is the timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine.

-Even taking all the above into account, as brar_w noted previously, there was always going to be supply chain constraints. One week here or there is not going to mean much in the final analysis. The manufacturing kinks have been worked on for many months, and production will ramp up. That's what a few $Billions gets you. Both the EU and the US will have their shots.
Covid vaccine front-runners.
Will Low-Income Countries Be Left Behind When COVID-19 Vaccines Arrive
The unequal scramble for coronavirus vaccines — by the numbers (an older article buts gives a lot of data on the race for doses)

-Finally, as Amber G. has mentioned, there will eventually become an ethical dilemma for new Phase 3 trials- at least for the well powered placebo studies. At some point (sooner than later?), the trial designs will have to shift to massive non-inferiority studies instead. And that too, proving non-inferiority against a 95% efficacy target?
Where are we in the Covid-19 vaccine hunt?

Not to be left out, India will also get hers, in no small part to being a critical part of the supply chain for the non-EU/US world (others countries with excess manufacturing capacity, i.e., Brazil, will also play a role in the COVAX initiative). However, it is becoming increasingly obvious imho that at least some of the contracts being signed by the Serum Institute (and possibly others) have the option of reserving ~50% of the doses produced for India's need. Just won't be Moderna's or Pfizer's candidates- too $ and too logistically challenging (cold chain requirements).

Sorry for the long post.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 08 Dec 2020 18:09

From WSJ:

Scientists Investigate Whether Exposure to Earlier Coronavirus Helped Asia Fight Covid-19

https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists ... 1607166230

^^ Article tries to explore why Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore have had way lesser number of cases as compared to other parts of the world.

- One of the salient viewpoints emerging is that .. cold similar to Corona Virus spread in these countries.. and that allowed people to develop some kind of immunity.. people either don't get corona or don't get severe version of it.

- Another view point is that cultural factors such as maintaining safe distance and wearing masks may have helped.

In any case, emerging theory is, if one has had 'cold similar to corona', chances of one catching Corona are less and if one does catch it, it is not severe.

Wasn't a much derided Leader saying the same thing?

As to USA, my conjecture is .. the uber ubiquitous flu shots just before the onset of winter may have over the years eroded body's immune mechanism by preventing a natural immune response to a natural viral attack!! When a viral attack such as that of Corona did happen, human body was not ready, neither was the vaccine and lives were lost.

Yes vaccines are getting ready and shall be available to general populace in next few weeks. But at what cost? A future virus may completely wipe out large parts of population.

BTW, Indian cases are down by almost 75% from peak and positivity rate is hovering at 3-4%. Coincidentally, large sections of the population are not wearing masks.

I don't advocate Not Wearing Masks (wear one myself always) but maybe the real answer to fighting corona lies in previous exposure to Corona like cold and body fighting it off on its own.

---To the mods: On copyright: I haven't copied any parts of the article. Just provided my interpretation.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 08 Dec 2020 20:11

Rishi_Tri wrote: In any case, emerging theory is, if one has had 'cold similar to corona', chances of one catching Corona are less and if one does catch it, it is not severe.

Wasn't a much derided Leader saying the same thing?

As to USA, my conjecture is .. the uber ubiquitous flu shots just before the onset of winter may have over the years eroded body's immune mechanism by preventing a natural immune response to a natural viral attack!! When a viral attack such as that of Corona did happen, human body was not ready, neither was the vaccine and lives were lost.

Yes vaccines are getting ready and shall be available to general populace in next few weeks. But at what cost? A future virus may completely wipe out large parts of population.

BTW, Indian cases are down by almost 75% from peak and positivity rate is hovering at 3-4%. Coincidentally, large sections of the population are not wearing masks.

I don't advocate Not Wearing Masks (wear one myself always) but maybe the real answer to fighting corona lies in previous exposure to Corona like cold and body fighting it off on its own.

This might be a big reason why Asia and Africa fared much better in general. IMO vaccines make sense for deadly diseases where there is no other option. For something like the seasonal flu - really? The body just goes soft. The COVID precautions (minus the masking) like maintaining reasonable distance, not getting effusive with strangers, relatively frequent hand-washing, especially before eating, not keeping your chocolate bar and your cell phone inside your shoe while you work out at the gym (and in the process - not accidentally and absent-mindedly munching on your cell phone) - those would probably be enough to minimize the impact of seasonal flus, and there would also be low levels of exposure which the immune system can fight off.

I do believe the body's response to a vaccine is different from the response to the "real deal." The vaccine is inactivated virus, so it doesn't multiply in the body. The body generates antibodies against a fixed number of passive "invaders," who just float around and don't go about commandeering the cellular machinery. So the all-out mobilization against a live and multiplying threat isn't there. When the real deal comes along later, the antibodies are already present, so the response is again muted.

People want technological solutions for problems which stem from lack of discipline and common sense. Like leaving their babies strapped up in the back seats of hot cars - solution: leave the cell phone or wallet in the back seat, so that you remember to check there!!! Because, you see, the frickin' cell phone is more important than that baby. Or - have a sensor which detects the baby and warns when you are about to leave the car!!! (Compensating for the (m/p)aternal instinct, which is now being lavished on the cell phone). Or people want to expose 85+% of their skin to the sun in summer time for hours together, so slather on sunscreen. Rather than covering up sensibly and limiting sun exposure to 15 to 30 mins (which would be greatly beneficial). Too much of this being enamored of technology, rather than using basic common sense. Rant off.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 08 Dec 2020 20:37

3 Covid-19 vaccine candidates under active consideration of drug regulator: Health ministry

NEW DELHI: Three Covid-19 vaccines candidates, developed by Bharat Biotech, Serum Institute of India and Pfizer, are under active consideration of India's drug regulator and there is hope that early licensure is possible for all or any of them, the Union health ministry said on Tuesday.
Over the last four days, the Indian arm of US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, Pune-based Serum Institute of India and Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical firm Bharat Biotech have applied to the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) seeking emergency use authorisation for their potential Covid-19 vaccines.

At a press briefing, NITI Aayog member (Health) V K Paul said the Covid-19 situation in India has stabilised with active cases showing a "clear-cut declining trend" even though the pandemic situation in many other countries is becoming quite serious.
The concern and anxiety that arose following an increase in daily cases of infection in Delhi has also settled now, he said.

Asked what steps would be followed by the DCGI in the absence of a water-tight emergency use authorisation law for granting licence to vaccine makers, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said not all countries' regulatory framework or rules and acts mention emergency use authorisation.
"So, the fact that this phrase is not used in the national regulatory framework of any country does not mean that specific country does not have an enabling provision to accord an approval which is early and which is distinct from a regular market approval.
"India's regulatory framework has a specific provision for grant of emergency use authorisation. Although this phrase is not used," he said.
The New Drugs and Clinical Trials Rules, 2019, clearly specifies that under specific special situations, relaxation, abbreviation, omission, or deferment of data including local clinical trial data may be considered for approval.
"This is our law. Similarly other countries also have their legislations," Bhushan said.
Giving a bird's-eye view of the Indian landscape of Covid-19 vaccines, Bhushan mentioned that eight vaccines are at different stages of development.
One is Covishield, which is being manufactured by Serum Institute of India in collaboration with AstraZeneca. Phase two and three clinical trials of this vaccine is underway and the firm has applied form emergency use authorisation.
Another is Covaxin, which is being indigenously developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and is presently in phase three of clinical trials. It has also applied to the DCGI seeking emergency use authorisation.
The third one is ZyCOV-D, being developed by Cadila Healthcare Ltd in Ahmedabad in collaboration with central government's Department of Biotechnology and is in phase two of the trials.
The fourth vaccine candidate is Sputnik V which is being manufactured by Dr Reddy's Lab, Hyderabad, in collaboration with Russia's Gamaleya National Centre and according to their mutual agreement. The phase two trial in India is over and phase three will begin next week.
The fifth one is NVX-CoV2373, which is being developed by Serum Institute of India in collaboration with Novavax and its phase three clinical trial is under consideration with the drug regulator.
The sixth vaccine candidate is Recombinant Protein Antigen based vaccine, to be manufactured by Biological E Ltd, Hyderabad, in collaboration with MIT, USA. Its pre-clinical animal studies have concluded and phase one and two human clinical trials have started. Another one is HGCO 19 being manufactured by Genova in Pune in collaboration with HDT, USA. Its pre-clinical animal studies are over and phase one and two clinical trials is set to start.
The eighth vaccine is being developed by Bharat Biotech International Ltd in collaboration with Thomas Jefferson University, USA and it is at the pre-clinical stages.
"Another vaccine, which is in initial stages, is the one being developed by Aurbindo Pharma. So there are a total of nine vaccines out of which six are in clinical trials and three are in pre-clinical stage," Bhushan said.
"There are multiple vaccine candidates in different stages of development and some may get licensed in the next few weeks. But we cannot foretell at this moment because licensure or market authorization is the domain of the national regulator."
Most of the vaccines are of two or three doses to be administered three to four weeks apart. Significant to note that even after vaccination, Covid precautions must be taken and this has been advised by WHO also, Bhushan said, adding, "Vaccination does not mean people become carefree."
About cold chain infrastructure augmentation, the health secretary said presently the system consists of 85,634 equipment for storage of vaccine at about 28,947 cold chain points across the country.
"Data on frontline healthcare workers being is uploaded on Co-WIN software in preparation of Covid-19 vaccination. The current cold chain is capable of storing the first lot of three crore Covid-19 vaccines for healthcare, frontline workers," he said.
He told the press conference that while 2.38 lakh auxiliary nurse midwives (ANMs) provide vaccination under universal immunisation programme, only 1.54 lakh such health workers will be used for Covid-19 inoculation.
"National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for Covid-19 (NEGVAC) has recommended that around one crore health workers should be given priority in the vaccination drive," Bhushan added.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 08 Dec 2020 21:06

As always, there is intense political spin over the vaccine. 'Trump declined extra doses' is the big headline today, which is patently false. The other headline is '90 yr old woman is the first in the UK and the World to receive a vaccine approved by the authorities', also false, since my classmate got his in UAE over a week ago. The spin that is being put on all this is unbelievable. Like it or not, the Trump admin is responsible for getting these vaccines ready before the end of 2020, but the opposition are trying to steal the credit for themselves. Worse, they are hoping that more Americans die and/or not enough get vaccinated so that Trump looks even worse.

The amount of hatred for Trump is very similar to that for Modi - and that is where the similarity between the two ends. People are willing to let the country go to dogs and for more death and misery to occur simply to bring down Trump or Modi.

I suspect Pfizer has a lot of people in high places rooting for it in many different countries, including our own Governor, Cuomo. Big Pharma controls more than we realize.

saip · Post by **saip** » 08 Dec 2020 21:55

OK. let us see. We get 100 mil from Pfyzer and another 120 mil from Moderna till the first quarter 21. Enough for 110 mil people. Enough for healthcare workers, those in nursing homes (both 25 mil) and essential workers (80 mil). Rest seniors and those with comorbities will get it in second quarter. Rest i.e young people without any underlying health conditions will get in third quarter. If by third qurter some 60% get vaccinated the last group may not even need it (herd immunity and all).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 21:59

This is really very good and astounding news - It is now a breaking story in NY Times (Other media will, IMO soon follow) (I may post soon some more details)
VACCINE WORKS WITHIN 10 DAYS:
New FDA analysis of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine shows the immunity protection of the #COVID19 vaccine kicks in **starting on day 10** after first dose, and continues to protect from there. Astounding!!

Just saw - FDA analysis of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine data found that the COVID19 vaccine worked well regardless of a volunteer’s race, weight or age, and offered strong immunity protection within 10 days of first dose. Approval may come by end of week.

-- And the vaccine’s efficacy was maintained across age groups, genders, race groups, ethnicities, and countries! Pretty consistent across the board so far, all hovering near 95%.

--

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 08 Dec 2020 22:16

<POOF>

Admin Note: any unwarranted reference to a lame-duck President of US on his last few days in any thread will be subject to admin action. Move on

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 09 Dec 2020 00:14

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Fake news peddled by the NYT. There are 5 vaccine candidates for the US including the Moderna vaccine. In June 2020, Phase I/II of BioNTech BNT162b1 vaccine results were not announced until later. Getting into a fixed contract for partially effective vaccine before data comes out would be even worse. See the link from Nature August 2020:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2639-4

Agreed Mort. This person Amber's anti-Trump political lens on every item related to COVID or Biden cabinet nominations is getting tiresome. The U.S. Govt knew that they would have 3-4 vaccines fully approved in the 1st quarter of CY 2021. So like any reasonable team would do - they made sure they didnt put all eggs in 1 basket (Pfizer) and sourced enough vaccines from multiple companies reducing the risks reg effectiveness, safety, availability by betting the farm on 1 vaccine. While I respect Dr. Gottlieb, he is on Pfizer's board. Even Dr. Gottleib I believe noted that the govt may have not picked up option on purchasing large quantities in the 2nd quarter by when the U.S. Govt may have secured the 600M odd doses needed to inoculate the entire population. The media as usual made a sensationalist headline out of the "non issue".

I have followed Amber's posts on Physics, Math, Scientific matters and have the highest respect for the person's academic, professional achievements (whatever little one can infer from their posts). However, this person's inability to objectively look at facts by going past the sensationalist news headlines is getting tiresome. People have been banned for far less on BRF.

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Dec 2020 00:33

Today I went for COVID test with my wife. We are told we may get results in FIVE days or so. Why does it take five days to get covid test results in the USA when you can get the results in 24 hours in India?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Dec 2020 00:45

Excellent news for India. Oxford vaccine trial data made available to scientists and they are satisfied. Vaccine is safe & effective. India is banking on Covax & Oxford (Covishield), as already described by members Oxford is less daunting on logistics and hope for billion of people around the world

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Dec 2020 00:50

My understanding is that the US government committed to buy 100 million doses at 19.50 from Pfyzer IF THEIR VACCINE IS PROVED to be effective. Second contract too could have been signed with same contingency clause. It was not. Now Pfyzer said it may be June before additional doses can be supplied. I think today Trump would be signing an executive order so that vaccines made in the USA will not be exported until our domestic needs are met. But this may not apply to Pfyzer or Astra Zeneca as as far as I know they are not made in the USA. Another point is inter mixing of vaccines. Though several vaccines may be available we may not able to intermix them. That is if you take Pfyzer then you can only take second shot of Pfyzer or at the most Moderna as they are similar vaccines. But I am certain I will not be able to take Astra Zeneca vaccine as it is totally a different type. Another point about Pfyzer vaccine is that to be ready it has to be diluted and each vial then will have 5 doses in it. If they are not used in six hours it has to be thrown away.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 09 Dec 2020 02:16

saip wrote:Today I went for COVID test with my wife. We are told we may get results in FIVE days or so. Why does it take five days to get covid test results in the USA when you can get the results in 24 hours in India?

My wife and I got tested about a month and a half ago. Both at different locations. She got her test result in 24-hours. It took me 3 days to get mine. There is a fair bit of variation in where you get tested so its not universal

saip wrote:Second contract too could have been signed with same contingency clause. It was not. Now Pfyzer said it may be June before additional doses can be supplied. I think today Trump would be signing an executive order so that vaccines made in the USA will not be exported until our domestic needs are met.

Pfizer will also be producing the vaccine in Michigan and maybe other production sites in the US. OWS clearly hedged across multiple canditate vaccines and one could argue that, in hindsight, they could have started issuing blank checks. But folks also need to account for the the fact that vaccine production and scaling isn't easy, and it hasn't turned out to be very smooth for the likes of Pfizer and BioNTech so again, in hindsight, hedging across multiple promising candidates also hedged against production delays. For example, Pfizer has already dialed back its production targets.

In news releases through September, Pfizer had said that it aimed to manufacture up to 100 million vaccine doses this year. But in several releases in November, the company cut that to an estimate of up to 50 million doses. Pfizer is developing its vaccine with Germany-based BioNTech SE.

A Pfizer spokeswoman said in a statement Thursday that multiple factors slowed the company down, including the time it took to source large quantities of the raw materials needed to produce the shots. But the company said it has finished bringing its manufacturing up to scale and it is now producing vaccines at a rapid pace.

Ultimately though, what will impact the rate of vaccination the most is how many promising vaccine candidates there are and how many get through testing successfully. Right now besides Pfizer, only Moderna is in the pipeline. Once J&J and Astrazeneca get through their final testing phases and submit their results hundred of millions of additional doses can flood the US. If come March, we only have Moderna and Pfizer then we in the US are going to be in deep water. If on the other hand, J&J's vaccination results look promising and they apply for EUA in the Jan-Feb timeframe then we could potentially have large # of doses of a single dose vaccine which will really scale up the vaccination effort. I believe 100 Million J&J vaccination doses have been ordered in the US with options to add 200 million additional doses. Same when Astrazeneca applies for EUA.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 09 Dec 2020 02:57

I get tested every week at work, results come in same day if done early enough or in 24 hrs. Some of our patients are sent to an urgent care facility for testing if they have missed the regular check and those results are available in less than 30 mts - these are all PCR tests.

However, many labs take 3-7 days to process the specimens since some of them forward them to another lab or just have too much volume to deal with. It is highly variable.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 09 Dec 2020 03:12

Another point is inter mixing of vaccines. Though several vaccines may be available we may not able to intermix them. That is if you take Pfyzer then you can only take second shot of Pfyzer or at the most Moderna as they are similar vaccines. But I am certain I will not be able to take Astra Zeneca vaccine as it is totally a different type.

I don’t think this is true

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... next-month

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 Dec 2020 03:56

20 different masks tested

needs to fit the face well
high thread count/woven tightly with as few gaps as possible
multi-layered design achieve the above
strong no to ventilator-type of masks
research going on whether reduced exposure (viral load) to the mask-wearer build-up immunity

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 09 Dec 2020 04:15

https://www.techbriefs.com/component/co ... blog/36766

Biosensor to Measure Coronavirus Concentration in Air

A team used to making pollutant detectors is adapting their systems to identify coronavirus in air.

Formerly dedicated to creating technologies that spot aerosols and artificial nanoparticles, researchers from the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH Zurich), and Zurich University Hospital have developed a biosensor specifically ready to pick up the RNA genome of SRA-Cov-2.

While the biosensor is not an alternative to clinical diagnostics, the scientists see the system potentially operating in crowded environments.

"For ease of use, the integrated system will be a portable device that can be used for rapid detection in public areas, such as train stations and hospitals," ETH Zurich postdoctoral researcher Guangyu Qiu told Tech Briefs.
...

Original source is here.
https://www.empa.ch/web/s604/coronatest