2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

RajeevK wrote:
ManSingh wrote: I haven't seen this viewpoint in other papers. But this is another self-goal, if true. It's suggesting one branch of government ( judiciary ) superior to the other ( legislature ).
The farmers (of a few states) want to repeal the farm laws. The government does not want to, as they feel the laws going to benefit the farmers.
I feel it is just an opinion expressed by a section of the press. I don't think the agitating farmers would like to go to the court anyway, as they only want to discuss stuff other than the content of the farm laws.
If the court decision goes against the "farmers" as it probably will, then, they are in the wrong, and it will give the govt a free hand along with legal cover to evict them.

even then the govt may not be able to do so because of collateral damage in terms of public image and possibly many dead farmers.

many very crucial state elections are looming large.

So, the govt is now going to fire from the SC's shoulders which the farmers never wanted.

so maybe an out of court settlement/compromise can still be worked out.

we need to wait and see how the BIF react because the commies will start to parrot that line
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/rakeshranjankr/stat ... 9107352577

Mr. Rakesh tikait. This was ur view on Farm law when it was passed
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErNZs8ZVQAE ... =large[img]

rotfl:
many tens/hundreds of crores later he has changed his mind. :mrgreen:
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

Some of the farmers organisations have themselves filed in Supreme Court. I doubt the government wants to use it as a basis. The other matter being is the law was passed in Parliament, unless it was blatantly unconstitutional, it’s not getting trashed.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/rakeshranjankr/stat ... 9107352577

Mr. Rakesh tikait. This was ur view on Farm law when it was passed
:
Sirs, could someone please help this illiterate one with a translation. Thank you
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ParGha »

Lisa wrote:Sirs, could someone please help this illiterate one with a translation. Thank you
Kisaano ki varsho puraani maang poori hui: Rakesh Tikait
Farmers' Long Time Ask Completed: Rakesh Tikait

Nirnay ka swaagat
Decision Welcome

sarkaar ne kesaano ko aapni upaj kaahi bhi bhejne ki anumati de di
Government has given the permission for farmers to sell anywhere

ab kisaan bina kisi rukaavat kay aanlain upajka souda ar paayenge
Now farmers can trade produce without any restrictions.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Tanaji wrote:Some of the farmers organisations have themselves filed in Supreme Court. I doubt the government wants to use it as a basis. The other matter being is the law was passed in Parliament, unless it was blatantly unconstitutional, it’s not getting trashed.
No part of agricultural activity falls under the union list. Agriculture in itself falls under state list. Agricultural trade and commerce falls in concurrent list. So that's what the legal challenge is about. But as I said, generally the central government has tried to consolidate it's power on items on most policy making ( including concurrent and state lists ).

It's understandable if farm organizations want to take it to court but the government should not. They should not be legislating on matters outside their purview.

Anyways the legal issue is a side-track discussion. The issue is not about the legality of a law or who passed it ( state or centre ). It's about adding appropriate checks, balances to a new method to trade to avoid monopolies/duopolies so that small/medium scale farmers are not exploited and there is no distress sale. Surely this problem can not/will not be settled in court.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kati »

Fakery, Facts and the Left

https://drishtikone.news/p/fakery-facts ... GUuqT0dY2k

Check this strange connection of the Indian tricolor in Trump supporters’ rally in Washington DC and the blaming it all on the Hindus by a Washington Post journalist!


But the guy who waved the Indian Tricolor at the Washington protest rally was Vincent Xavier. An entrepreneur from Kochi. And a Tharoor friend and a Christian. Here is


He tweets about his involvement as well.


Of course, Twitter has not “fact-checked” Rana Ayyub’s tweet.

Thoughts?

4

Write a comment…

Rahul4 hr agoLiked by Desh
Not surprised - that was the first suspicion that came to my mind when I first saw the news. Contemporary public Indian discourse is replete with such false flag operations. Thanks for digging out the details and confirming the game ...

1Reply

Desh4 hr ago
Congress and their flunkies will not stop in this global game. Probably the only thing that gives them any legitimacy. We just need to keep baring their agenda and actions for what they are - Hindu-hate and bigotry. Thanks for your comment, buddy.

Reply
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Is there any reason there are no protests to walk away from IWT? Were there any protests when nehru clan took various decisions affecting farmers?

Farmers should demand destruction of pakistan and no IWT. End of the day it's all about livelihoods. Few more decades of nehru clan and all real farmers will be back to being slaves.
RajeevK
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeevK »

ManSingh wrote: No part of agricultural activity falls under the union list. Agriculture in itself falls under state list. Agricultural trade and commerce falls in concurrent list. So that's what the legal challenge is about. But as I said, generally the central government has tried to consolidate it's power on items on most policy making ( including concurrent and state lists ).
That is debatable. There are overlaps and there are demarcations as inter state trade is involved.

Centre to free up inter-state agri commodity trade without touching APMCs
For this, the govt will use Entry 42 of the Union list, along with Entry 33 of the Concurrent List, to frame a legislation

Union, state and concurrent list

Entry 42 (Union list) Inter-state trade and commerce
Entry 26 (State list) Trade and commerce within the state subject to the provisions of entry 33 of the Concurrent list
Entry 33 (Concurrent list) Trade and commerce in, and the production, supply and distribution of,-
(a) the products of any industry where the control of such industry by the Union is declared by Parliament by law to be expedient in the public interest, and imported goods of the same kind as such products
(b) foodstuffs, including edible oilseeds and oils
(c) cattle fodder, including oilcakes and other concentrates
(d) raw cotton, whether ginned or not ginned, and cotton seed; and
(e) raw jute.
shravanp
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by shravanp »

ManSingh wrote:
I haven't seen this viewpoint in other papers. But this is another self-goal, if true. It's suggesting one branch of government ( judiciary ) superior to the other ( legislature ).
I see something chankian in it. With Prashant Bhushan always running away to SC, this time GoI is putting this tough gauntlet on SC. SC judges know it too well that these reforms have absolutely no grounds for repeal. Thats why the protesters are not too happy with this :D
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

RajeevK wrote:
ManSingh wrote: No part of agricultural activity falls under the union list. Agriculture in itself falls under state list. Agricultural trade and commerce falls in concurrent list. So that's what the legal challenge is about. But as I said, generally the central government has tried to consolidate it's power on items on most policy making ( including concurrent and state lists ).
That is debatable. There are overlaps and there are demarcations as inter state trade is involved.

Centre to free up inter-state agri commodity trade without touching APMCs
For this, the govt will use Entry 42 of the Union list, along with Entry 33 of the Concurrent List, to frame a legislation

Union, state and concurrent list

Entry 42 (Union list) Inter-state trade and commerce
Entry 26 (State list) Trade and commerce within the state subject to the provisions of entry 33 of the Concurrent list
Entry 33 (Concurrent list) Trade and commerce in, and the production, supply and distribution of,-
(a) the products of any industry where the control of such industry by the Union is declared by Parliament by law to be expedient in the public interest, and imported goods of the same kind as such products
(b) foodstuffs, including edible oilseeds and oils
(c) cattle fodder, including oilcakes and other concentrates
(d) raw cotton, whether ginned or not ginned, and cotton seed; and
(e) raw jute.
Of course that is the problem with the original law ( not amendments ). The intent of the law(s) is to help farmers, right? Till now farmer's were not inter-state traders ( and did not conduct inter-state commerce ) and probably will not be going forward as well. Selling to APMC's is well within state jurisdiction and the state was responsible for storage and transport ( either to FCI or open market).

Their trade was conducted in-state under a system that was well understood, local and subject to local dispute resolution mechanisms. I know about middle-men, the point is once you know a system you know how to work with it's flaws. Also local political clout matters and it's in the interest of local politicians to listen to their constituents.

Going forward farmers will be subject to consequences of their economic activity being regulated differently under new laws. The new laws do de-facto usurp state powers - private procurement can not be subject to a levy. The state list allows states to impose levies on agricultural activity ( APMC based procurement ). Going forward there are only two options:

1) Continue imposing levies on it's method of procurement i.e. APMC's and put them at a competitive disadvantage vs private procurement who can not be taxed at a state level.
2) Reduce levies imposed on state's method of procurement and make state government(s) compete with private players ( with respect to procurement, transport infrastructure ).

The dispute resolution also moves to a different much higher power centre ( SDM ) vs APMC. Who is responsible for transport? If the laws are amended to allow courts as a dispute resolution mechanism, which jurisdiction would apply( PB/HRY or New Delhi or Mumbai )? Who pays for legal costs and travel costs for fighting a court case against someone based in a state half-way across India?

It is fair to say that at this stage we do not know how the laws will play out in the real economy and it's been suggested to let these laws play out for 1-2 years before the next set of reforms. But going by past experiences ( including GST roll-out - Are the website issues sorted as yet?? ), it's fair to be skeptical of it's success at least in near to middle term.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Going forward farmers will be subject to consequences of their economic activity being regulated differently under new laws. The new laws do de-facto usurp state powers - private procurement can not be subject to a levy. The state list allows states to impose levies on agricultural activity ( APMC based procurement ). Going forward there are only two options:
1) Continue imposing levies on it's method of procurement i.e. APMC's and put them at a competitive disadvantage vs private procurement who can not be taxed at a state level.
2) Reduce levies imposed on state's method of procurement and make state government(s) compete with private players ( with respect to procurement, transport infrastructure ).
So we should just close our eyes to all the developments of mechanized farms/output improvements/technology and private capital that is changing farmer's life for better! Would that help farmers of future? So we blackmail Govt. to increase MSP for 6% of farmers every year while thousands keep dying. Is that the only alternative we want?

While other countries can produce more rice/wheat or switch to other competitive products at a lost lesser price, we should just stick to our guns and bankrupt ourselves, procure all at higher prices than international markets even if we just throw it away and just ban imports/exports.

This argument of private vs public is what we were doing in 90s. If we allow private airlines, what about AI/IA even if they suck and can't service/expand/run in losses!

The dispute resolution also moves to a different much higher power centre ( SDM ) vs APMC. Who is responsible for transport? If the laws are amended to allow courts as a dispute resolution mechanism, which jurisdiction would apply( PB/HRY or New Delhi or Mumbai )? Who pays for legal costs and travel costs for fighting a court case against someone based in a state half-way across India?
All these can be worked out ... This Govt. has been willing to listen and keep changing GST rules. Reduced many rates. Improved refund system.

They improved a lot of other laws as they went along

Only argument from farmers is this:
We are not willing to list out our concerns or even tell what clauses have problems with ... REPEAL, REPEAL, REPEAL ... Otherwise we will block highways and destroy India. I am afraid that is not going to work people of India.
Last edited by vijayk on 09 Jan 2021 03:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by V_Raman »

All these arguments about state powers being usurped etc. would be taken up by all the states if they were material. It only affects Punjab/Haryana due to the mandi based procurement system which should have been removed long ago like other states.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

vijayk wrote:
So we should just close our eyes to all the developments of mechanized farms/output improvements/technology and private capital that is changing farmer's life for better! Would that help farmers of future? So we blackmail Govt. to increase MSP for 6% of farmers every year while thousands keep dying. Is that the only alternative we want?

While other countries can produce more rice/wheat or switch to other competitive products at a lost lesser price, we should just stick to our guns and bankrupt ourselves, procure all at higher prices than international markets even if we just throw it away and just ban imports/exports.

This argument of private vs public is what we were doing in 90s. If we allow private airlines, what about AI/IA even if they suck and can't service/expand/run in losses!
I don't think the new laws will improve mechanization. Also PB/HRY ( for sure ) and maybe Western U.P. have more tractors/combined harvesters than required. Higher output will be a problem. We have a problem of plenty. Private capital helps for sure ( the govt. ) in finding investments required to upgrade agricultural infrastructure especially with a changing palate ( due to urbanization ). I think this is the main intent of new laws.

Yes other countries are competitive and will always be compared to us. Our land holding is small and there are too many people dependent on this industry than what can be gainfully employed. While efficiency/competitiveness is good to have, ultimately alternate professions will have to be created. Given the breadth of Indian economy and current over-abundant labour supply, there is already a mismatch.

MSP is only a name. The govt could create alternate support mechanisms like linking prices to global future and insure farmers against low prices. Simply saying private industry will take care of farmers is not going to cut.

Here is an example of how Europe does it. Surely Europe has a well developed private sector and infrastructure. Still they choose to offer income support via public sector.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming- ... plained_en

Farming is a risky – and often costly – business. Agriculture is more dependent on the weather and climate than other sectors. There is an inevitable time gap between consumer demand and farmers being able to increase supply as growing more wheat or producing more milk takes time and investment.

EU farmers are under pressure from the increasing global trade in food products and trade liberalisation. Developments on global markets increase competition, but also create new opportunities for the European agri-food sector. Additionally, globalisation and fluctuations in supply and demand have made agricultural market prices more volatile in recent years, adding to farmers’ concerns.

These business uncertainties in agriculture justify the important role the public sector plays in ensuring a safety net for farmers’ income.


Private/public airlines is a very bad example for your point, though I get your intent. These airlines failed with too much government regulation ( and taxation ) in this sector though supposedly this sector was open to competition.

Prices: Answering from a pure economic perspective. Food falls under inelastic pricing region. Long story short, what it means is that to turn a profit, the only option is to raise prices. So food will not be cheaper at hands of those who work for a profit motive. Also given steady demand, it's a great investment for any firm that allows it to control prices. Do I think this will happen?? Probably not but there is a clause in amendment to Essential Commodities Act which allows govt to intervene in stock limits held by private traders ( i.e. hoarding ) only if the price rise is > 100% of a 5 year average or last year's price. This acts as a strong price support mechanism for private traders, so what is wrong if farmers ask for the same? Why the double standards?

Stock limits -> 100% price rise permitted http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2020/222038.pdf

any action on imposing stock limit shall be based on price rise and an order for regulating stock limit of any agricultural produce may be issued under this Act only if there is— (i) hundred per cent. increase in the retail price of horticulturalproduce; or(ii) fifty per cent. increase in the retail price of non-perishableagricultural foodstuffs,over the price prevailing immediately preceding twelve months, or average retailprice of last five years, whichever is lower

Inelastic demand( boring ) -> https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-f ... supply-cnx
vijayk wrote:
All these can be worked out ... This Govt. has been willing to listen and keep changing GST rules. Reduced many rates. Improved refund system.

They improved a lot of other laws as they went along

Only argument from farmers is this:
We are not willing to list out our concerns or even tell what clauses have problems with ... REPEAL, REPEAL, REPEAL ... Otherwise we will block highways and destroy India. I am afraid that is not going to work people of India.
Again hyperbole. Only once has a highway been blocked ( KMP - during the last tractor rally rehearsal ). As someone pointed out, daily life in NCR region is not affected. Plus it is government's perogative to provide a suitable place that allows for peaceful protests. You surely saw U.S. Capitol protests where protesters are regularly allowed to gather irrespective of the agenda. I have seen protests in heart of major North American cities and a majority of them are peaceful.

Delhi Police instead offered Burari open jail - hardly a place that befits our image as the world's largest democracy. We can do better on both terms - managing dissent and better laws.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

ManSingh wrote:
vijayk wrote:

Again hyperbole. Only once has a highway been blocked ( KMP - during the last tractor rally rehearsal ). As someone pointed out, daily life in NCR region is not affected. Plus it is government's perogative to provide a suitable place that allows for peaceful protests. You surely saw U.S. Capitol protests where protesters are regularly allowed to gather irrespective of the agenda. I have seen protests in heart of major North American cities and a majority of them are peaceful.

Delhi Police instead offered Burari open jail - hardly a place that befits our image as the world's largest democracy. We can do better on both terms - managing dissent and better laws.
Mansinghji - if punjab farmers request the punjab CM for a venue for protest, I am sure he will accommodate. For that matter kejriwal will accommodate them with biryani. Please dont justify holding public ransom for whatsoever reasoning one might have. If farmer's are really protesting for their livelihood they dont have any rights to deprive anyone else's livelihood

On the khanland or anyother country for protest - please show us what happens when someone tries to block an interstate/key highway as a form of protest. Protestors who thought they were supporting the US president are staring at 20 years of jail time and some have already lost their job. I cant comprehend that stopping highways as a "rehearsal" is reason to be relieved
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by m_saini »

Regarding EU's income support and how it used to be.

FOOD SURPLUS MAY BANKRUPT EUROPEAN BLOC
The surpluses have built gradually during the 1980's, partly as a result of modern intensive farming methods but mainly because of the Common Agricultural Policy, or CAP, which gives European farmers high guaranteed prices and protection against foreign competition through levies on imports. European farmers then get community subsidies for their exports to the lower-priced international market.
After that changes were made.

Billions in Misspent EU Agricultural Subsidies Could Support the Sustainable Development Goals
In its first three decades, CAP support to farmers through guaranteed minimum prices for products ultimately resulted in extreme levels of overproduction described as “lakes of milk and beef mountains”16 in the 1970s and 1980s. To address this problem, the MacSharry reform in 1992 replaced market support with so-called direct payments to farmers, which were coupled to production based on areas of eligible crops and numbers of eligible livestock. However, coupled direct payments did not sufficiently reduce production surpluses, which led to the reforms in 2003 (called the Mid-Term Review) cutting the link between direct payments and production.17 Since 2005, farmers receive the majority of their support as decoupled direct payments based on their agricultural area. This area-based support is contingent on farmers keeping their land in “good agricultural and environmental condition” and complying with Statutory Management Requirements including meeting minimum standards for protection of the environment, animal health and welfare, and food safety (Table 1).
To receive income support from EU, you need to adhere to SMRs (Statutory Management Requirements) and GAEC (Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition) with GAEC 2 being:

Abstraction of water for irrigation and it requires a license from an Environment Agency.

Water management: abstract or impound water
If you plan to take more than 20 cubic metres a day, you are likely to need an abstraction licence from the Environment Agency.

The Environment Agency assesses applications to abstract (take) water against local water availability.
Do we have comparable systems in place?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by dsreedhar »

When comparing with EU, along with points mentioned by m_saini, should we also not look at the aspect that in most of these countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain etc ) only less than 5% of employment is in agriculture. It is easy to support that small population by rest.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

m_saini wrote:Regarding EU's income support and how it used to be.

FOOD SURPLUS MAY BANKRUPT EUROPEAN BLOC
The surpluses have built gradually during the 1980's, partly as a result of modern intensive farming methods but mainly because of the Common Agricultural Policy, or CAP, which gives European farmers high guaranteed prices and protection against foreign competition through levies on imports. European farmers then get community subsidies for their exports to the lower-priced international market.
After that changes were made.

Billions in Misspent EU Agricultural Subsidies Could Support the Sustainable Development Goals
In its first three decades, CAP support to farmers through guaranteed minimum prices for products ultimately resulted in extreme levels of overproduction described as “lakes of milk and beef mountains”16 in the 1970s and 1980s. To address this problem, the MacSharry reform in 1992 replaced market support with so-called direct payments to farmers, which were coupled to production based on areas of eligible crops and numbers of eligible livestock. However, coupled direct payments did not sufficiently reduce production surpluses, which led to the reforms in 2003 (called the Mid-Term Review) cutting the link between direct payments and production.17 Since 2005, farmers receive the majority of their support as decoupled direct payments based on their agricultural area. This area-based support is contingent on farmers keeping their land in “good agricultural and environmental condition” and complying with Statutory Management Requirements including meeting minimum standards for protection of the environment, animal health and welfare, and food safety (Table 1).
To receive income support from EU, you need to adhere to SMRs (Statutory Management Requirements) and GAEC (Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition) with GAEC 2 being:

Abstraction of water for irrigation and it requires a license from an Environment Agency.

Water management: abstract or impound water
If you plan to take more than 20 cubic metres a day, you are likely to need an abstraction licence from the Environment Agency.

The Environment Agency assesses applications to abstract (take) water against local water availability.
Do we have comparable systems in place?
The systems you are suggesting would be extremely nice to have. Payments based on a set criteria and also clearly defined "eligible crops and livestock". Such finesse is probably a pipe-dream with the kind of bureaucracy we have. I mean to say their inability to draft policies that take most aspects into account, involve competent researchers and have a clear and set criteria, a decent transition period and crystal clear messaging.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Kaivalya wrote:
ManSingh wrote:
Mansinghji - if punjab farmers request the punjab CM for a venue for protest, I am sure he will accommodate. For that matter kejriwal will accommodate them with biryani. Please dont justify holding public ransom for whatsoever reasoning one might have. If farmer's are really protesting for their livelihood they dont have any rights to deprive anyone else's livelihood

On the khanland or anyother country for protest - please show us what happens when someone tries to block an interstate/key highway as a form of protest. Protestors who thought they were supporting the US president are staring at 20 years of jail time and some have already lost their job. I cant comprehend that stopping highways as a "rehearsal" is reason to be relieved
Request guys, please no "ji" for me. Mansingh sounds like a heavy name but it's not my real name.

Punjab CM and Kejriwal have zero role to play. No amount of effort spent on bringing issue(s) to their attention is going to change anything.

Nobody is being held to ransom by these protests. Also no one goes to jail for protesting on Capitol hill( USA ), Parliament hill ( Canada ) or outside provincial legislatures of any of these countries. The ones going to jail for causing a riot inside the congress building.

Previously Jantar Mantar used to be the equivalent protest site in India but leftist protests ( over non-issues) in the past regime have now ruled out this option.

Since you asked, I checked. Look at the below link. Protesting peacefully "inside" capitol hill gets you a $50 citation and not 20 years in prison.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/womens- ... d=56240419
Kaivalya
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

ManSingh wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:
Mansinghji - if punjab farmers request the punjab CM for a venue for protest, I am sure he will accommodate. For that matter kejriwal will accommodate them with biryani. Please dont justify holding public ransom for whatsoever reasoning one might have. If farmer's are really protesting for their livelihood they dont have any rights to deprive anyone else's livelihood

On the khanland or anyother country for protest - please show us what happens when someone tries to block an interstate/key highway as a form of protest. Protestors who thought they were supporting the US president are staring at 20 years of jail time and some have already lost their job. I cant comprehend that stopping highways as a "rehearsal" is reason to be relieved
Request guys, please no "ji" for me. Mansingh sounds like a heavy name but it's not my real name.

Punjab CM and Kejriwal have zero role to play. No amount of effort spent on bringing issue(s) to their attention is going to change anything.

Nobody is being held to ransom by these protests. Also no one goes to jail for protesting on Capitol hill( USA ), Parliament hill ( Canada ) or outside provincial legislatures of any of these countries. The ones going to jail for causing a riot inside the congress building.

Previously Jantar Mantar used to be the equivalent protest site in India but leftist protests ( over non-issues) in the past regime have now ruled out this option.

Since you asked, I checked. Look at the below link. Protesting peacefully "inside" capitol hill gets you a $50 citation and not 20 years in prison and blocking a highway ( happens in USA) gets a "Pedestrian in roadway charge" which google says is $500 in Texas and $54 in New Jersey. These are way better than 307, 144, other rioting violations that regularly given in India.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/womens- ... d=56240419

https://www.startribune.com/motorist-pl ... 330442631/

Mansingh - you are missing both issues.

1. Protestors are not blocking highways because they dont have a suitable place to protest. They are doing it for attention/optics ,negotiation/politics. What happens when every group that perceives a slight stops highways or important roads?

2. Based on your links provided, they were arrested and removed not mollycoddled. It is not the issue of 50$ fine but rather they cannot be a public nuisance. How many days has it been? Your issue of right to protest arises when protestors get written permission. For example, No one gets indefinite permission to be in front of the congress grounds. It is but a token gesture not some constitution given right till someone's grievance is solved (genuine or otherwise)
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by m_saini »

ManSingh wrote: The systems you are suggesting would be extremely nice to have. Payments based on a set criteria and also clearly defined "eligible crops and livestock". Such finesse is probably a pipe-dream with the kind of bureaucracy we have. I mean to say their inability to draft policies that take most aspects into account, involve competent researchers and have a clear and set criteria, a decent transition period and crystal clear messaging.
Saar the finesse you're hoping for is a pipe-dream in itself. The support payments in EU are based on the number of hectares you own and the majority of funding goes to the corporate farms (read mudi favoring ambani, adani etc) instead of family owned. The family farmers "protesting" in delhi would burn the country down if such systems were introduced in India.

Also the lack of finesse cuts both ways. Bureaucracy is just a reflection of people it administers. EU could take the journey from guaranteed prices for crops to coupled direct payments to support payments based on SMRs and GAECs because EU farmers don't "gherao" Brussels everytime a legislation is passed that is viewed unfavorably. Indian farmers aren't EU farmers and indian bureaucracy isn't EU bureaucracy.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

ManSingh wrote:


Again hyperbole. Only once has a highway been blocked ( KMP - during the last tractor rally rehearsal ). As someone pointed out, daily life in NCR region is not affected. Plus it is government's perogative to provide a suitable place that allows for peaceful protests. You surely saw U.S. Capitol protests where protesters are regularly allowed to gather irrespective of the agenda. I have seen protests in heart of major North American cities and a majority of them are peaceful.

Delhi Police instead offered Burari open jail - hardly a place that befits our image as the world's largest democracy. We can do better on both terms - managing dissent and better laws.
Till now, no one from farmer's side is willing to list out which clauses or part of the laws is their issue or what protections they want.

The only mantra that comes from them is REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL all laws and go home.

They need to get someone who can articulate their issues ... may be they should hire you. Good points on arbitration etc. I am sure Govt. will be willing to listen to them.


Govt. assured they are not abandoning MSP. MSP is a political decision. If Govt. could abandon it, they would done long time ago. Paying MSP to every crop is beyond capability of any Govt.

Some apprehension based on private sector will take over all lands or Govt. will stop all MSP is something that can't be relieved.

Pepsi is doing contract farming of potatoes. Many punjab farmers are doing it very profitably. FCI still procuring potatoes from other sources.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

ManSingh wrote:
Nobody is being held to ransom by these protests. Also no one goes to jail for protesting on Capitol hill( USA ), Parliament hill ( Canada ) or outside provincial legislatures of any of these countries. The ones going to jail for causing a riot inside the congress building.

Previously Jantar Mantar used to be the equivalent protest site in India but leftist protests ( over non-issues) in the past regime have now ruled out this option.

Since you asked, I checked. Look at the below link. Protesting peacefully "inside" capitol hill gets you a $50 citation and not 20 years in prison.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/womens- ... d=56240419
Try blocking the highways for months in US or EU and you'll know the consequences. I cannot think of a single country including starving, civil war ridden sub-saharan african countries which would allow a bunch of goons to take over highways leading to the capital city of 25 million people and pitch tents for over a month ! There are many ways to protest, many venues to protest but blocking roads and creating chaos for months isn't one of them. There was an article recently on the plight of industries and businesses around these blocked highways

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 37645.html

A livelihood is a livelihood be it a farmer or a daily wage laborer or a business owner. Where should the commuters or business owners or poor laborers protest against this injustice ?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Philip »

The first req. is to substantially boost the def. budget. That can only be attained by reducing the forex outflow,esp. the huge Chin trade deficit.Banning Chin goods across the board will result in a $50 B at least savings.We will hurt for a period ,finding desi / firang suppliers at reasonable prices,but we must sever the dependence upon Chin goods,investments,etc. as if it were a drug we are dependent upon.

A swift decision-making on critical pending issues with the MOD is essential to beef up preparedness for the current stand-off with the PRC as an amicable withdrawal and de-escalation is farthest from Chin minds. We must be prepared for the next phase of Chin aggression within the next few months which may also involve
hyena Pak.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

Mansingh -

Looked up the law in the US : Due to Nashville protests it is already a felony ( min 1 yr jail time ) for disrupting traffic or camping on state property in Tennessee with Florida following soon. This is in addition to getting arrested and removed right away. I think we need a Law like this not to mention damage of private property that should already be covered. Pepper spray, tear gas is on the menu not pizza and biryani

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/fl ... utType=amp
ManSingh
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Kaivalya wrote:Mansingh -

Looked up the law in the US : Due to Nashville protests it is already a felony ( min 1 yr jail time ) for disrupting traffic or camping on state property in Tennessee with Florida following soon. This is in addition to getting arrested and removed right away. I think we need a Law like this not to mention damage of private property that should already be covered. Pepper spray, tear gas is on the menu not pizza and biryani

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/fl ... utType=amp
Let's just hope it does not come to that. When differences/grievances are not met with a reasonable response, that is when things get real ugly. Providing no reasonable avenue to disagree and then meeting it with a heavy handed response like you suggested is befitting for forbidden city not a democracy.

Also the US form of democracy is very different from ours. Every state has two senators who play a very important role in pushing their state agenda. A single senator from Iowa can completely hold up all senate bills unless issues on topics important to his state, for example agriculture are addressed. Similarly a senator from West Virginia can block all bills in senate if issue of miners is not addressed. In India if a party leader issues a whip on a bill, no MP can defy it without loosing his seat.

There are more avenues for debate and dissent there and so checks and balances are different there than in India. Also do remember that given India's coalition politics there will not always be a favorable govt in place. What would be the avenue of dissent if for example, communal violence bill is rammed through by such a government?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Skanda »

What if the difference is itself unreasonable? By suggesting the farmers take their very reasonable grievance to court, the GOI has provided a reasonable Avenue to dissent.
RKumar

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RKumar »

I would say, kill the FCI and let the states handle the farming and farmers matter as seem fit. Let every state to give subsidies and benefits from their state resources and buy the produces at whatever price they seem fit.

States can store and manage the food - how they like. As the time change, terms n conditions change otherwise humanity will be stuck in stone stage.

Economically weaker states can get direct monetary benefits as per standard nationwide policy.
RKumar

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RKumar »

ManSingh wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:Mansingh -

Looked up the law in the US : Due to Nashville protests it is already a felony ( min 1 yr jail time ) for disrupting traffic or camping on state property in Tennessee with Florida following soon. This is in addition to getting arrested and removed right away. I think we need a Law like this not to mention damage of private property that should already be covered. Pepper spray, tear gas is on the menu not pizza and biryani

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/fl ... utType=amp
Let's just hope it does not come to that. When differences/grievances are not met with a reasonable response, that is when things get real ugly. Providing no reasonable avenue to disagree and then meeting it with a heavy handed response like you suggested is befitting for forbidden city not a democracy.

Also the US form of democracy is very different from ours. Every state has two senators who play a very important role in pushing their state agenda. A single senator from Iowa can completely hold up all senate bills unless issues on topics important to his state, for example agriculture are addressed. Similarly a senator from West Virginia can block all bills in senate if issue of miners is not addressed. In India if a party leader issues a whip on a bill, no MP can defy it without loosing his seat.

There are more avenues for debate and dissent there and so checks and balances are different there than in India. Also do remember that given India's coalition politics there will not always be a favorable govt in place. What would be the avenue of dissent if for example, communal violence bill is rammed through by such a government?
Is it democratic to block highways for months - causing economic blocs even truckers as well as ambulances are not allowed leading to death of patients in many cases , stealing gensets and donating to religious institutions, interruption of internet n mobile services, farmers are having great time at the protest sites - some even saying they are having gala time there. I can share hundreds of videos if you have not seen one. Centeral Ministers and government Officer are Meeting the Protester at regular intervals.

Now if I look on the other side - the poor farmers are still working hard in the fields. It’s the rich farmers- who are protesting because they will not be the only ones who can sell their products to private companies directly. They are already doing it since years silently and keep accumulating land and property. If old system did not work for 70 years, it will be foolishness to expect that it will start working in future. Do you remember before almost every election - govt‘s farmers loan wavier?? Can we try something different please?
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

ManSingh wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:Mansingh -

Looked up the law in the US : Due to Nashville protests it is already a felony ( min 1 yr jail time ) for disrupting traffic or camping on state property in Tennessee with Florida following soon. This is in addition to getting arrested and removed right away. I think we need a Law like this not to mention damage of private property that should already be covered. Pepper spray, tear gas is on the menu not pizza and biryani

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/fl ... utType=amp
Let's just hope it does not come to that. When differences/grievances are not met with a reasonable response, that is when things get real ugly. Providing no reasonable avenue to disagree and then meeting it with a heavy handed response like you suggested is befitting for forbidden city not a democracy.

Also the US form of democracy is very different from ours. Every state has two senators who play a very important role in pushing their state agenda. A single senator from Iowa can completely hold up all senate bills unless issues on topics important to his state, for example agriculture are addressed. Similarly a senator from West Virginia can block all bills in senate if issue of miners is not addressed. In India if a party leader issues a whip on a bill, no MP can defy it without loosing his seat.

There are more avenues for debate and dissent there and so checks and balances are different there than in India. Also do remember that given India's coalition politics there will not always be a favorable govt in place. What would be the avenue of dissent if for example, communal violence bill is rammed through by such a government?
1. Democracy has allowed for avenues of dissent. Please recognize the appropriate avenues and use it is the advise for the protestors. Blocking highway is not an option. I am going to ignore the communal comment as it is irrelevant.

2. Stop using US /EU as a model when it suits your argument. Like it has been pointed out in the issue of stopping traffic, agriculture situation etc. It is a system as a whole. While it gives permission for token protests in front of the Congress it also allows for immediate arrest for public nuisance.

3. No single senator has an ability to do anything you suggest. It would stop any democracy from functioning. You are imagining some world that doesn't exist
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Kaivalya wrote:
ManSingh wrote:
Let's just hope it does not come to that. When differences/grievances are not met with a reasonable response, that is when things get real ugly. Providing no reasonable avenue to disagree and then meeting it with a heavy handed response like you suggested is befitting for forbidden city not a democracy.

Also the US form of democracy is very different from ours. Every state has two senators who play a very important role in pushing their state agenda. A single senator from Iowa can completely hold up all senate bills unless issues on topics important to his state, for example agriculture are addressed. Similarly a senator from West Virginia can block all bills in senate if issue of miners is not addressed. In India if a party leader issues a whip on a bill, no MP can defy it without loosing his seat.

There are more avenues for debate and dissent there and so checks and balances are different there than in India. Also do remember that given India's coalition politics there will not always be a favorable govt in place. What would be the avenue of dissent if for example, communal violence bill is rammed through by such a government?
1. Democracy has allowed for avenues of dissent. Please recognize the appropriate avenues and use it is the advise for the protestors. Blocking highway is not an option. I am going to ignore the communal comment as it is irrelevant.

2. Stop using US /EU as a model when it suits your argument. Like it has been pointed out in the issue of stopping traffic, agriculture situation etc. It is a system as a whole. While it gives permission for token protests in front of the Congress it also allows for immediate arrest for public nuisance.

3. No single senator has an ability to do anything you suggest. It would stop any democracy from functioning. You are imagining some world that doesn't exist
Read what a filibuster means in the us senate. An example:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/dems ... ?_amp=true

Also check what a hold or secret hold by one senator does to a bill. H1b guys will know this from s.386.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

‘Burqa clad women attacked police party: Bail of one Tabassum denied and how it proves again that Delhi violence was coordinated
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/delhi-a ... urqa-clad/
...
According to the reports, Additional Session Judge Vinod Yadav rejected the bail plea of accused Tabassum, a resident of Chand Bagh Area of Delhi, saying that her Call Detail Records (CDRs) revealed that she was in constant touch with several co­-accused persons to hatch riots. The judge further said that the charges against the applicant were serious in nature.
...
“Even burqa­ clad women are clearly seen attacking the police party with sticks and other material in their hands and they clearly appeared to be charged up. It has also come on record that some of the persons of the mob had taken possession of the rooftops of high­ rise buildings at or around 25 feet road, having firearms and other rioting material with them,” the judge made scathing remarks.
...
Anti-Hindu riots was a well hatched conspiracy, says Delhi court

Justice Yadav mentioned that all this prima facie indicates that everything was being done under a well­ hatched conspiracy, the common object whereof was to cause blockage of the main Wazirabad Road and if resisted by the police, then to go to any extent to liquidate them by use of force.
....
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

When is the next round of discussion happening with the 'farmer brokers'? Because on January 16, 2021the Anti-COVID vaccination drive would commence. It is quite natural that attention of the citizens would now be on the vaccination drive & its progress. Even the 'seculars' will have to watch it closely to bring up negative stories. All in all, the 'farmer brokers' may not even get the attention which they are getting now. A cleverly planned vaccination drive and the progress updates on January 26th; the 'farmer brokers' will not have many people worried about them.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

‘SC of Hindu Rashtra’, ‘Eunuch’, ‘Har*mzada’: Former head of Amnesty India, Aakar Patel, goes on a tirade against Judiciary
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/former- ... jan-gogoi/
...
Aakar Patel wrote, “Eunuch judges of Supreme Court of Hindu Rashtra let sexual harasser Chief Justice appear in a case where he was himself accused. And we must genuflect to it as if it were some oracle of Delhi.”
....
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Meanwhile MH govt continues to outperform expectations.
Fire at a District General Hospital in Maharashtra claims lives of 10 new-born babies aged between 1 to 2 months: Details
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/10-infa ... e-ordered/
...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed grief over the unfortunate incident and extended condolences. He tweeted, “Heart-wrenching tragedy in Bhandara, Maharashtra, where we have lost precious young lives. My thoughts are with all the bereaved families. I hope the injured recover as early as possible”.

Heart-wrenching tragedy in Bhandara, Maharashtra, where we have lost precious young lives. My thoughts are with all the bereaved families. I hope the injured recover as early as possible.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) January 9, 2021

Terming the incident as “unfortunate” Home Minister Amit Shah expressed condolences over the death of the new-born babies.

The fire accident in Bhandara district hospital, Maharashtra is very unfortunate. I am pained beyond words. My thoughts and condolences are with bereaved families. May God give them the strength to bear this irreparable loss.
— Amit Shah (@AmitShah) January 9, 2021
kit
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kit »

You know you are doing something right when an enemy starts to respect your strength

If this is not a resounding applause for a powerful India under Modi

https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/imran-k ... overnment/

Because in the last 73 years, there has never been a government like the one with have in India today,” Pakistan PM Imran Khan said.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

ManSingh wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:
1. Democracy has allowed for avenues of dissent. Please recognize the appropriate avenues and use it is the advise for the protestors. Blocking highway is not an option. I am going to ignore the communal comment as it is irrelevant.

2. Stop using US /EU as a model when it suits your argument. Like it has been pointed out in the issue of stopping traffic, agriculture situation etc. It is a system as a whole. While it gives permission for token protests in front of the Congress it also allows for immediate arrest for public nuisance.

3. No single senator has an ability to do anything you suggest. It would stop any democracy from functioning. You are imagining some world that doesn't exist
Read what a filibuster means in the us senate. An example:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/dems ... ?_amp=true

Also check what a hold or secret hold by one senator does to a bill. H1b guys will know this from s.386.

Like I said - you are dreaming something that doesn't exist. Please read your article in completion :
Manchin, McCaskill and Capito have the support of other Democratic senators from states with contingents of miners impacted, including Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Mark Warner of Virginia. Those six senators could join forces to prevent a final vote on the continuing resolution.

US senate cloture rule requires 60 senators to stop debate. You are misinterpreting a single senator's power and changing the meaning of democracy to suit your need
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Enough said. Not that we already didn't know from siddhu the real pakistani.
Indian voters just need to keep in mind that there were no meaningful objections to siddhu. Similarly there were no objections here.
Viral Video shows protesting farmer hail Pakistan PM, call Narendra Modi a dog
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/protest ... odi-a-dog/
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by a_bharat »

ManSingh wrote: Read what a filibuster means in the us senate. An example:
So, if there is no filibuster mechanism, it is ok to block the highways for months by these Hindu hating mobs (and a few Hindu sell-outs with ulterior motives).

It is obvious to most folks on this forum that there is no merit to these so called "farmer protests". By this I don't mean farmers don't have problems. They do, but these protests are just a mask for something else.

If I were to take you as a representative moderate Sikh, I have to conclude that the Sikh community have become too emotional (with their hate for the current government) and have stopped being rational.
Last edited by a_bharat on 09 Jan 2021 20:37, edited 1 time in total.
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Kaivalya wrote: You are misinterpreting a single senator's power and changing the meaning of democracy to suit your need
Indian system allows broad daylight robbing of rights of Hindus, allows parallel law systems, allowed nehru clan to commit umpteen number of crimes against Hindus, article 35a, indira changing preamble of constitution and making Hindus follow it as the actual constitution, etc. Nothing like that has resulted towards the white christians of US. After such macro level comparisons and US being leaps ahead of India, someone asking for Indian system is only engaging in PhD level mental gymnastics.
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