2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[hanumadu]

Its obvious that the longer Modi stays in power, the harder the buttons will be pushed. Anything and everything will be an excuse to protest and riot. Fasten your seat belts, things will only become nastier from here on.

[chetak]

and this blue ticked khalistani twit berates the govt for spoiling their nefarious game plan

the apple has not fallen too far from the tree.

Gul Panag@GulPanag

It appears that the government has got what it wanted, from day one! It was waiting for an opportunity to show the entire protest in poor light, by design or default. Constant attempts at needling/provoking the protestors; undermining, subverting, debasing the protests. Sad.

[vimal]

I was wondering if police could’ve used sandbags to prevent tractors from plying. Barricades are useful against humans but you need something that can prevent tractors from plying.

I’m really hoping this does not turn into anti-sikh movement like 84.

[chetak]

Is it a coincidence?
-JNU violence- ----Yogendra Yadav was present
-Shaheen bagh-----Yogendra Yadav was present
-Farmers violence-Yogendra Yadav present.

via@advmonikaarora

[Ambar]

Yogendra Yadav is just a joker in the pack urban naxalie hogging limelight and inserting himself into everything, kinda like modern day Medha Patkar. The break-India forces began this assault on India from Pulwama in February of 2019, and they intensified after Modi came back with a bigger majority. Remember even before anti-CAA riots and protests, there were protests in Delhi in Aug/Sept of 2019 by jnu and other urban naxals demanding rollback of hostel fees ? Its not so much that we have rioters now camping on the Red Fort grounds and will assault the parliament next week, but after 18 months (beginning with JNU protests) we (not just the GoI but even on BRF) have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

[vijayk]

and this blue ticked khalistani twit berates the govt for spoiling their nefarious game plan

the apple has not fallen too far from the tree.

Gul Panag@GulPanag

It appears that the government has got what it wanted, from day one! It was waiting for an opportunity to show the entire protest in poor light, by design or default. Constant attempts at needling/provoking the protestors; undermining, subverting, debasing the protests. Sad.

She is daughter of AAPian general Lt. Panag who is courted by Kujli. I think they gave her a ticket also in 2014.

This B-grade actress portrays a democratic image, supports all anti-nationals to help her dad

[bharathp]

Is it a coincidence?
-JNU violence- ----Yogendra Yadav was present
-Shaheen bagh-----Yogendra Yadav was present
-Farmers violence-Yogendra Yadav present.

via@advmonikaarora

not a coincidence - coronavirus is quite contagious

[vijayk]

Yogendra Yadav is just a joker in the pack urban naxalie hogging limelight and inserting himself into everything, kinda like modern day Medha Patkar. The break-India forces began this assault on India from Pulwama in February of 2019, and they intensified after Modi came back with a bigger majority. Remember even before anti-CAA riots and protests, there were protests in Delhi in Aug/Sept of 2019 by jnu and other urban naxals demanding rollback of hostel fees ? Its not so much that we have rioters now camping on the Red Fort grounds and will assault the parliament next week, but after 18 months (beginning with JNU protests) we (not just the GoI but even on BRF) have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

Most of it is rNDTV, India Today, CON/AAP alliance and Jihadi network. Now Khalistanis are out in the open because of Dem dogs of US/Canada

[SwamyG]

This is the 4th generation warfare that Pigeon and others had predicted a long time ago. I do not for a moment think GoI has been caught off-guard. The enemy is powerful and resourceful. It is not going to be a cakewalk even for the best of the best.

[Zynda]

have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

Ambar saar, not a rhetorical question but how did US counter BLM riots? Genuinely interested in finding out what other countries are doing to quell such well planned & executed riots/protests and perhaps we can take some lessons from it. I believe even now after Biden, in Portland, Antifa thugs are wrecking havoc by rioting/attacking DNC offices & burning down buildings.

Only referred to BLM because we have not seen similar riots else where outside of the usual states. Surprisingly, Britain has not seen any such riots even though the ruling party is not a liberal one. Perhaps due to Covid...

[Ambar]

Arun Shourie saab says "Nothing enrages sikhs more than someone calling them antinationals" , i guess going forward all those who block national highways, drive tractors on police personnel, throw away national flag and plant a khalistani flag or takeover central Delhi should be called as "patriots" after all the true "antinationals" as per these eminent intellectuals are your IT coolies, tailors, plumbers, small businessmen etc who pay taxes carry the burden of all sorts of subsidies and loan wave offs in turn to get shafted by secularites, farmers, labor union goons, the police and the politicians.

To experience an surreal inverted reality and a great irony is police stopping cars today on a state highway in Karnataka to check if people are wearing masks inside their cars while 20000 congress workers and tractors ran amok in heart of Bangalore. We are truly living in unreal times.

[kit]

...The farmers walked right into a trap

A wise man once said -- Give a man enough rope and he will hang himself.

-- Imagine all those common farmers tuning into R-day tamasha thinking of their brethren (Checked)
-- Imagine those from the same community in armed force are thinking of their brethren (Checked)
-- Farm laws (done and dusted)...next UCC
-- How will political parties supporting so-called Kisan, respond?? (trapped)
-- Will the western countries run headlines supporting the so-called farmers tomorrow? (Don't think so, you are fcuked)
-- Nice to see news channels drawing the parallels between Amreiki events few weeks ago and today
-- Watching drug high so-called farmers in a wild tractor ride (what a bunch of idiots, you just ruined the whole thing)

Anyone thinks, flying a flag for a cash payment means anything, please send me a PM, I'll email you my home address.

yes, quite right. There is nothing called a peaceful violence. The moment any ideal turns violent it loses its rationale and virtue. It can never be justified nor will be the same ever again. At least not the open (but we have a different way to deal with the other scenario) The "poor farmers" "protests" will die the death it so richly deserves.

[Ambar]

have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

Ambar saar, not a rhetorical question but how did US counter BLM riots? Genuinely interested in finding out what other countries are doing to quell such well planned & executed riots/protests and perhaps we can take some lessons from it. I believe even now after Biden, in Portland, Antifa thugs are wrecking havoc by rioting/attacking DNC offices & burning down buildings.

Only referred to BLM because we have not seen similar riots else where outside of the usual states. Surprisingly, Britain has not seen any such riots even though the ruling party is not a liberal one. Perhaps due to Covid...

Same globalist ecosystem and a partisan media gave cover to BLM riots. With Antifa and BLM continuing their violence is why I said Congress and Amrinder Singh are sadly mistaken if they think they can call the genie back into the bottle.

From loan wave offs, JNU protests for a nominal hike in hostel fees, anti-CAA rioters and now "farmers" taking over red fort one thing is clear, the 70 years of mollycoddling certain sections of the society and handling them with kid gloves is the reason why we are here in this position. I also think it was not an extraordinary performance by IB or RAW which has kept our cities safe from ISI sponsored terror attacks in the last 7 yrs but Pakis studying the arab spring closely and realizing it is better to exploit the faultlines and create riots, chaos, protests to paralyze India than do bomb blasts which in fact unites India.

[Zynda]

Farmers' stir: Intel reports suggest ISI gave Rs 5 cr to Babbar Khalsa to create trouble

Lots of info in the article...how major SM platforms like FB have been used to promote campaigns and raise money. Usual sources US, Canada, Britain etc.

[vimal]

This is the power of social media. Pro India twitter and Facebook accounts have been blocked. Only commie/paki/Khalistani handles were allowed to spew fire.

Also, watching TV now and see a lot of red communist flags on tractors. So this is a combined BiF front which is clear.

[AshishA]

Farmers' stir: Intel reports suggest ISI gave Rs 5 cr to Babbar Khalsa to create trouble

Lots of info in the article...how major SM platforms like FB have been used to promote campaigns and raise money. Usual sources US, Canada, Britain etc.

Time to cancel Facebook. Or raise the Great Wall of India firewall.

Time to use this reasoning to systemically dismantle Facebook and other tech companies like Twitter in India. Ameriki leftists have set a template on how to deal with these riots etc by cancelling parler and going after vocal conservatives. Use the same logic on these guys.

[chetak]

Yogendra Yadav is just a joker in the pack urban naxalie hogging limelight and inserting himself into everything, kinda like modern day Medha Patkar. The break-India forces began this assault on India from Pulwama in February of 2019, and they intensified after Modi came back with a bigger majority. Remember even before anti-CAA riots and protests, there were protests in Delhi in Aug/Sept of 2019 by jnu and other urban naxals demanding rollback of hostel fees ? Its not so much that we have rioters now camping on the Red Fort grounds and will assault the parliament next week, but after 18 months (beginning with JNU protests) we (not just the GoI but even on BRF) have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

Most of it is rNDTV, India Today, CON/AAP alliance and Jihadi network. Now Khalistanis are out in the open because of Dem dogs of US/Canada

yadav is in eager talash of a parliament seat and he needs a safe constituency that he can win from.

that is what he is desperate for.

a magsaysay award will fetch him plenty more moolah from BIF FFNGOs to fund his election and to pay off some commie party for the nomination.

this is what he tried to do in AAP and khujli, the head pappi booted him out

[Ambar]

I have <100 followers on Twitter, i haven't tweeted or retweeted in months but yet Twitter blocked my account yesterday and now wants my phone number to unblock it. We, including Govt of India , are fighting this battle with both of our hands tied. Sorry to say but China is indeed smarter then everyone else, they saw the dangers of western social media platforms, OTT platforms, IT cloud infrastructure providers more than a decade ago, and we rolled out red carpet for them as usual and we are now getting steam rolled.

[AshishA]

^^ the most weird thing is that these same tech companies prostrate before china and dance to their whims and fancies while trying to lord over Indians.

Same with the American govt.

[mmasand]

Does anyone know what are the key performance indicators for central ministries? I mean, Prakash Javdekar is setting new records every month, we're stuck with no information of the information minister. Not a single member of the Cabinet has issued a statement, not even the HM.

[chetak]

To those 'retreat-is-strategy; baboons jumping up and down talking about this broker movement, losing sympathy, its all bunkum. This disturbance is sponsored by forces inimical to Bharat. They will continue disrupting.

Mean-e-while, Dilli Pulice is turning into a pu$$y.

The shaheenbagh perps faced zero consequence, so will these brokers.

Dilliwalas will get the brunt, but hey they are getting free bijli and sewage-tainted-paani.

They wanted dead bodies.

Then they would parade those dead bodies in the pages of NYT and WaPo.

State didn’t oblige and rightly so.

This was a violent insurrection.

Let that be said loud and clear.

via@sunandavashisht

[Suraj]

Recently, ArsTechnica had an interesting article on the behavior of mobs. This is a really interesting article for those trying to understand how serial protests and mobs behave. It's essentially a form of human collective behavior, and understanding how they work is key to tackling them.
What psychology of mass mobilization can tell us about the Capitol riot

Michael Bang Petersen, a Danish political scientist at Aarhus University, weighed in on Twitter with some counter-intuitive commentary. While the predominant theme among many pundits centered on the role of Trump and his enablers spreading lies about widespread voter fraud and then whipping the crowd into a frenzy during that morning's rally, Petersen suggested that perhaps they had it backward. "Did protestors storm Congress because they followed Trump and believed his misinformation about the US election? No," he tweeted. "They followed Trump and believed in misinformation because they wanted to storm Congress."

Petersen published a review paper in the journal Current Opinion in Psychology, making the case for his thesis that "mass mobilization"—like we saw with the Trumpian insurrectionists storming the nation's Capitol—is not the direct result of manipulation by misinformation/wild conspiracy theories spread by a dominant leader. Rather, the paper said, those factors are vital tools for coordinating individuals who are already predisposed to conflict.

This in essence supports the broken window theory. It states that groups of people can be predisposed to violence, even if they're individually (relatively) harmless. Calls to lawlessness or signs of acceptance of lawlessness - the 'broken window' - serve to embolden them.

In any society. certain numbers of people are predisposed to angry and violent behavior. Heavyhanded response to them by way of riot policing often tends to be counterproductive, because it makes them angrier. In this regard, GoI's response has been very smart - at the points where the protests wants to boil over, it is imperative that state machinery does not elevate the temperature.

That does not mean do nothing. The most effective way is constant long term low grade costs. Organizing protests needs to cost time and money and procedure. This is normal - a developed society needs to plan and organize fire services, medical services and police for any incidents at protests. You can't randomly show up at any place you want to protest in, in the developed west. You need permits and clearances.

This is also not to suggest that everyone will listen to these permit rules. Sure, they likely won't. The goal is to record who is involved, how they are organizing, and enable the state to track them down later, track down their funding and otherwise build the state machinery for long term use here. The goal is to make angry mobilization costly - in terms of time and money. But it won't happen overnight. People need to be patient.

People like Tharoor and Turdesai thought they control these 'protesters'. But as this paper suggests, its the other way around - the protesters are inclined to protest and they're simply throwing oil in the fire. Until things got to the point where they were smart enough to realize that the visuals could be very damaging to them. Same as with Trump and Capitol Hill.

Long term handling of this rent-a-protest culture requires a system that makes the organizing of mass protests a tedious action. It should be - over a threshold, large numbers of people in one small place is a dangerous situation. There's a good reason why yelling 'fire' in a crowded cinema is a criminal act. Protests are acts where large groups of people congregate and collectively inflame passions. Like a nuclear reaction, that is dangerous and needs to be managed by making it hard to do so in such large numbers. It's a liability to any civil service - police/crowd control, medical services, fire, sanitation and cleaning...

[hnair]

We can expect the penpals of Bureacratus Fulminati to write a strong letter towards the general direction of Delhi, asking for govt to provide rollcages for tractors and patka-helmets for the drivers when they ram on to barriers at full speed under influence

[LakshmanPST]

It's not so much that we have rioters now camping on the Red Fort grounds and will assault the parliament next week, but after 18 months (beginning with JNU protests) we (not just the GoI but even on BRF) have no creative solutions on how to counter these riots and protests.

There is no way for any democratic govt. to control such things within the legal framework... Simply no way...
They need to do certain things that normally happens in dictatorships which can not be openly said in a public forum... I'll leave it at that...

[mmasand]

We can expect the penpals of Bureacratus Fulminati to write a strong letter towards the general direction of Delhi, asking for govt to provide rollcages for tractors and patka-helmets for the drivers when they ram on to barriers at full speed under influence

If it's any consolation, the cops were wearing their holsters on the right hip, not left as has been for decades. I wonder when was the last time they have been to a firing range.

[Ambar]

There's a great difference between a bunch of QAnon idiots climbing the walls of the Capitol vs these Khalistanis who are backed by Pakistan, China, their powerful benefactors in UK, Canada, Germany, US. The capitol rioters were panned and dragged on coals by the media but here we have a large section of soldout partisan fake media providing them cover fire, creating false equivalency by comparing the UP Republic Day tableu with Ram Mandir with the Khalistan flag which was planted on the red fort. Not to mention the western social media platforms and messaging platforms fanning the flames and muzzling, shutting down anyone speaking or countering the marxist BIF narrative.

When the anti-CAA protests started in late Nov/early Dec 2019 i thought the government's biggest mistake was treating the JNU protestors earlier in 2019 with velvet gloves. JNU sponsored riots was a very localized event and other than DU, AMU, they had no pan-national support. The leaders of JNU protests should have been made an example out of but the same characters spearheaded the first wave of violence few months later when the anti CAA protests began.

Again, what is it the government needs to do going forward ? They don't have endless time, they have 3 yrs before they go to polls and these protests will not end anytime soon. Believing the judiciary will help punish the forces behind these protests is silly, many CAA rioters are already out on bail.

[Suraj]

Mobs are mobs, regardless of whether they're QAnon idiots or Khalistanis. Humans tend to behave one way individually and quite a different way in a tight group with focused goal. Completely rational individuals (in that they may hold dangerous motives but are rational about the cost on them if they act out alone, and therefore avoid acting) tend to act differently when in a group, where they feel far less likely to face the consequences of expressing such thoughts in reality.

The research is saying that mobs by themselves are a problem, and a demagogue adding fuel to the fire is only making it worse. Protests are fine - they are part of a democratic system. Large congregated protests are not fine because they stress many arms of the state apparatus and risk the worst excesses of human mob behavior. Therefore, state policy needs to make it extremely hard to congregate in more than a small number in one place simply because mobs are difficult to control and manage.

[astal]

There are several tactics and strategies to deal with these protests and the associated violence.
In the short term, refuse to talk any further. All avenues for discussions are over. Every reasonable opportunity was provided.

Do a media blitz in the rest of India with savvy Ministers and trusted leaders. Lay down the benefits of the bill again and again. Tout success stories. Spend political capital if needed.
In Punjab, look for sympathetic outlets such as Gurudwaras and make an articulate and strong case. Get your MP's out. They should be prepared to lose some popularity for genuine reforms.

Go back to the Supreme Court and make a more convincing presentation instead of the half hearted effort done the first time around. Parliament and the GOI are sovereign when it comes to making laws. If the government insists, there is really nothing the court can do. After 10 years of discussions and an ordinance to the effect, lack of consultations is hardly an excuse for staying implementation of the laws.

Now in the medium and longer term
This protest exposed one major flaw in Indian laws. Inheritance by a non citizen allows non Indians to own large amounts of agricultural land. This enables them to make an agricultural income in India and not pay taxes, indefinitely. Much of this income is off the books due to hawala and also enables tax avoidance in the country were the non citizen has migrated too.
Here are some specific suggestions:

• When a foreign citizen inherits land, it must be sold to an Indian Citizen within 5 years.

• Inheritance tax for non Indian citizens

• Agricultural income tax if the land if held by non Indian citizens.

• Land owned by non citizens should also not get free electricity, fertilizer or any other subsidy.

The benefits of no income tax on farming income should only accrue to Indian citizens.

Make another set of laws to define an escalation ladder for protests. Once police barriers are attempted to be broken or any violence ensues, an automatic response should be put into effect, that dismantles the protest and disperses protestors.
Any time a protest disrupts traffic, causes loss of livelihood or results in destruction of property, it is no longer a peaceful protest and the police and administration must have laws covering their actions to diffuse, disperse and arrest instigators. Peaceful, non disruptive protest is ok.

Simply discussing and notifying these laws will set the cat among the pigeons.

The Modi government thus far has signaled lack of conviction in this matter. It must do the opposite.

[V_Raman]

Such violence will only lead to more vote consolidation for BJP. Opposition is desperate for a stick similar to godhra - they are just not getting it. I agree it will get more brazen. 2 years will be spent on stabilizing and rollout of all these changes and economy. Next up is UCC - that will be close to elections - catch-22 for the BIF.

[chetak]

This was the actual plan of AAP for PUNJAB ELECTIONS

They want to provoke Government and police to use force, lathicharge, bullets etc and were prepared for it so that Globally they can project themselves as a victim of high handness

via@Satyanewshi

[chetak]

and the pre arranged propaganda by presstitutes

It was a well oiled plan

[vijayk]

I think first they should block FB and Twitter for 2 weeks pending investigation into their roles for promoting violence

[Ambar]

I think first they should block FB and Twitter for 2 weeks pending investigation into their roles for promoting violence

Agreed. Whatsapp is used widely for communication even by institutes but no one can claim "disruption of business and livelihood" if the govt shutsdown Twitter and FB.

[Neela]

I think first they should block FB and Twitter for 2 weeks pending investigation into their roles for promoting violence

Absolutely.
A raid on one of their offices , some questioning, intermittent blocking of key Twitter / Facebook ad-servers should send out an initial message.

-----

Although I do want to see visible action, I believe both Shaheen Bagh and Farmer protests must have generated valuable intelligence leads /data. All said and done, the Left is not an infinite and unmanageable network. There will be commonality, there will be key players and key nodes that would have been made visible with all the financial transactions, all the calls and all the informers. Kashmir stone pelting is dead and the Abdullahs and Geelanis have been castrated. I believe the same will happen.

[KJo]

I think first they should block FB and Twitter for 2 weeks pending investigation into their roles for promoting violence

Agreed. Whatsapp is used widely for communication even by institutes but no one can claim "disruption of business and livelihood" if the govt shutsdown Twitter and FB.

I am told that Whatsapp is used by people in India for official business with banks, hospitals and maybe even the government. People send account numbers through Whatsapp. It's deeply ingrained and it would not be easy to ban.
Some of my friends started a movement to move to Signal and some RW types have removed themselves from WA groups but they are forgetting about network effects. Moving there is meaningless unless one moves completely along with one's contacts. Else it is just an echo chamber. They will be back. It's also an annoyance to have more than 1 messaging app. But if the Govt shuts WA down, then everyone in India is in the same boat but it may be a challenge to communicate with folks outside India.

[Kaivalya]

There are several tactics and strategies to deal with these protests and the associated violence.
In the short term,

Do a media blitz in the rest of India with savvy Ministers and trusted leaders

. This needs to be done to stop upgrading the nature of the issue . The fuel pouring people benefit from upgrading/up selling these idiots in SM/wapo/nyt or majority of indian media.

1. This is not a national issue
2. This is not a anti-green revolution issue
3. This is not an anti farmer issue. It is a broker issue.
4. Lastly - this is not an anti democratic stand by the government. Quite the contrary.

Press drones like yogiji ( whether kujliwal supports it or not ) and shame anyone stepping out of line in Singhu or anywhere else. Make them pay for every little damage to public or private property

Now in the medium and longer term

• When a foreign citizen inherits land, it must be sold to an Indian Citizen within 5 years.

• Inheritance tax for non Indian citizens

• Agricultural income tax if the land if held by non Indian citizens.

• Land owned by non citizens should also not get free electricity, fertilizer or any other subsidy.

The benefits of no income tax on farming income should only accrue to Indian citizens

.

Added to this - When demon was done, it was expected that real estate transparency would be the next target. It has been a while - if there are issues on india wide implementation we can look for regulations in a segment : All non-citizens should voluntarily register their agricultural land now and give up benefits/subsidies or face much steeper fines/taxes later.

[darshan]

One uses eigen function to analyze the system. Hopefully, the system is being analyzed for UCC.

[nam]

Hope GoI doesn't spend time things like UCC or population control bills. It should purely concentrate on economy and rolling out a better life for the people. The TV driven drama in Delhi is an unnecessary distraction.

There are other ways to get UCC by challenging individual laws through the courts.

[vimal]

Delhi clash: Farmer leaders condemn violence, claim 'anti-social' elements role
By the end its clear that everyone involved is trying to cover their behind and HT is trying very hard to save save the BiF forces.

[vijayk]

Guys! All Modi has to do is to set up a judicial commission to investigate role of twitter/FB to instigate for promoting Paki/foreign/terrorist elements and come up with recommendations for criminal liability of management. Half the problems will be solved. When I see these guys, I remember the story of snake and sage. Snake stops biting on the advice of sage and gets beaten every day with sticks and rocks. When she complains to the sage, he says I told you not to bite but did not ask you to hiss.
There has to be an iron clad law that makes the management liable for aiding violence for both FB/Twitter.