I too was upset to hear that Modi had AGAIN offered to put the law on hold for 1.5 years while negotiations were held with farmers on the law.Sachin wrote:Gents; what are your feelings on the farmer broker gang protests? To be frank, over the last two days I am not very happy to see how things are going. I was expecting things to be under control after Jan 26th, but looks like things are not going to end any time soon. Not even a single protest site has been cleared till date. Which means that any time hordes of farmer brokers can cause problems in NCR area. To add to the problem there is now also the Jatts & Khap Panchayath stuff getting involved in this. Both UP & Haryana state governments also seems to be now unable to control the situation. And Modi is again talking about communication lines being open etc. Though I agree that Modi (as PM) cannot openly recommend strong measures, I am unable to figure out why HA & UP state governments are now in a go-slow mode.
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Why was Modi offering the same "concessions" now that he had won the 1st round. It was ok to have offered it when he was under pressure before.
On further thought, it makes sense.
1. Modi, by offering the same "generous" concession now was playing the peace maker. It is not about what the so called "farmer leaders" think that is important but what the general population of India think that matters in the long run. By willing to bend, he was signalling his flexibility in contrast to the obstructionist stance of the "farmer leaders". BUT it does not end here ....
2. If the "farmer leaders" reject it again, no skin off Modi and he would have again made the point to the general population about his flexibility and humbleness and the "farmer leaders" obstructionist stance and their rigidity.
3. The "farmer leaders" have already rejected the offer. They can accept it now BUT that will only signal a climbdown to their core supporters and probably a sellout as well.
4. Plus, one of the condition is suspension of the law for 1.5 years is that the farmers camped outside Delhi would have to return to their farms. Now the "farmer leaders" and Modi realize that getting the same crowd back after a letdown will be far tougher for the "farmer leaders".
Plus, Modi gets a breather by diffusing the immediate crisis and get to focus on other high priority areas that demand his attention.
Plus, GOI gets to plan for the next confrontation better and in the mean time round up the malcontents at the 3rd and 4th tiers of the protest.
Plus, IFF the negotiations fail the "farmer leaders" would be shown to have been hoodwinked by GOI to their core supporters and thus loose whatever support they have enjoyed.
Not a good option for the "farmer leaders".
5. Also note UAPA has been applied to many of the "farmer leaders". Prior to the Red fort invasion that would simply not have been possible without making Modi look really bad.
Now, hardly anyone has batted an eyelid when the most stringent law has been slapped on the so called "farmer leaders". UAPA, itself may not lead to am immediate arrest forget long-term punishment to these so called "farmer leaders"
BUT the so called "farmer leaders" know that the sword hangs over their head now and it was not there before the Red fort invasion. They will realize that unless the are able to force Modi off the PMship, the UAPA sword in the hands of a weakened and a vengeful Modi will be very very dangerous for them.
6. Hopefully, by now, the "farmer leaders" have realized that a riot or a riot like situation is not in their interest for it makes for very bad optics and dents their public support in the general public.
7. The jocker in the pack is still the SC. Remember, the UAPA cases, the road blockage, the validity of the farm law, etc will all land at the doorsteps of the SC. Watch them very carefully. Modi, by making a concession on holding back the law for 1.5 years, has given the SC enough material to pressure the "farmer leaders" to accept negotiation and vacate the protest site. The SC's wishes can be defied but that will only add to the obstructionist tag to the "farmer leaders".
In all this, one has to remember the real target of Modi's maneuvers are ordinary farmers and citizens who are NOT part of the protest. If he has them on his side he can deal with the protests without much political damage. That is the Modi's play. He is appearing soft because he want's public opinion on his side when he needs to get hard.
Rest everything should be understood in the above context. UP/Haryana are not independent actors.
This does not mean that Modi will get his wish and get an easy exit. The way things are shaping up, looks like we are in for an extended confrontation on this issues and a hot spring/summer.