2021 Five State Elections

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Mar 2021 21:27

darshan wrote:Kutch origin, Bengal politician Dinesh Trivedi joins BJP
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/03/06/ ... joins-bjp/

the BJP is turning out to be a garbage collection service and it is already facing a dire situation in KAR where every two bit turncoat who joined it thinks that the sun only shines out of his nether regions and goes all mercenary in demanding plum portfolios and the chance to swindle big money.

the loyal BJP workers slog it out all year long and these opportunistic party hopping clowns waltz in from other parties, and more often than not, get the BJP ticket to contest, leaving these loyal BJP workers out in the cold and still expected by the BJP to loyally soldier on by getting these traitors elected.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Mar 2021 21:45

It is a difficult trade off. In KAR even without the 21 odd turncoats who brought down the INC-JDS govt , BJP was rife with infighting , factionalism and powerful swamis and their institutes pulling the ropes. If BJP had not taken a chance with the turncoats then there is no guarantee they will come to power on their own even in the next elections given their abysmal history and leadership in the state. In WB , BJP wasn't even a "also ran" until recently, so they are taking a chance with all these ship jumpers to come to power, how the future unfolds is anybody's guess but as they say possession is 2/3rd of the rule, so they'll take any path to take power.

Mukhi · Post by **Mukhi** » 06 Mar 2021 22:26

As far as PK is concern, I for one do not take him lightly. Or any opponent for that mater. I have followed him closely since 2014 and he seems to have developed and put in place processes to manage elections.

He always claims to make marginal improvement of 2-5 % additional votes for his candidates when his IPAC is involved. This translates to many victories.

I kept on requesting a copy of his paper on Gujarat’s Malnutrition and got response from whomever handles his titer account that its not available for Public. I even offered to pay if reasonable but the request was denied. This would have truly given me the chance to study him and his analytic thought process. Still looking for his materials if anyone can help.

As far as BJP taking garbage, I too am against it. But, it is a pragmatic approach where BJP is making inroads and against all odds. It takes 20 plus years to have an organic growth for a party like BJP. That would be too much time to pass without Power. If BJP can speed up this process by collecting Garbage, for the time being, it is an acceptable trade off.

As Priyanka Gandhi once said, Parivartan Ke Lea Satta Me Hona Jaruri Hai. (It is becessary to be in the Power if you want to change). Just look at the Maharashtra case.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Mar 2021 06:37

You can't drain the swamp without providing a holding tank. Look what happened to Trump.
For those who feel holy, politics is dirty and recall the trouble went to establish Rama Rajyam.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Mar 2021 06:41

PK is just a loudmouth.Lets see.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 08 Mar 2021 07:55

How many winning campaigns has PK conducted for his clients?

1) Bihar 2015.
2) Punjab 2017.

Any other election??

Would the outcome have changed in the above 2 elections if PK was not involved?

I don't think so.

Is Mamta some one who can beat BJP without PK in Bengal this time. If not then it makes no difference what he is going to do.

She will lose.

Indian election campaigns don't work because someone is a master strategist. They work on the basis of the performance of the part in power.

In Bengal this is further depending on the performance of the Gundas of the ruling party on the day of the election.

Is the EC providing enough central police forces to dominate the Gundas of the ruling party accross the different electoral stages. That's the key question.

The results of this can only be known when results come.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Mar 2021 08:01

As Bengal goes to polls I recall RayC who despaired off Bengal returning to mainstream Bharat.

After the results will raise a toast to him!

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 08 Mar 2021 08:18

.del.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Mar 2021 08:36

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ele ... 328590.cms
Now then!!!
Has NaMo and AS had a rethink of the magic 75!!!

Who knows...whatever the case may be, I can tell you there are many anti-Modi morons in India who have taken this "retire at 75" business seriously and are placing all hopes on 2024 for Modi's departure by retirement from the political scene. These people may be feeling seriously disturbed now.

Mukhi · Post by **Mukhi** » 08 Mar 2021 09:19

Pratyush wrote:How many winning campaigns has PK conducted for his clients?

1) Bihar 2015.
2) Punjab 2017.

Any other election??
.....
The results of this can only be known when results come.

Delhi, Andra.

Please Don't Get me Wrong. It would be great to beat him. But it would be naive to take him litely.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 08 Mar 2021 09:46

Would the results be different if PK was not involved?

That is the larger question.

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 08 Mar 2021 10:22

Pratyush wrote:Would the results be different if PK was not involved?

That is the larger question.

Here's a couple of articles that do talk about that question " Did PK make them win " or did he just join a winning bandwagon "
https://theprint.in/opinion/why-winners ... or/364081/ (older)
https://theprint.in/opinion/politically ... al/570863/ (recent)

Anyway the point is that he gets quite close to the leadership at the top and is certainly influential about the decisions leading up to the election , Its difficult to put that influence in a number or a stat and say oh he won them "X" extra seats

As far as 2021 goes the fact that he's spending most of his time and resources in Bengal rather than splitting time with TN should tell you how worried he is about the situation there .Going by the comments from TMC defectors it seems Banerjees have agreed to all his demands so this election will be an interesting litmus test of his supposed capabilities .

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Mar 2021 12:29

KL Dubey wrote:
Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ele ... 328590.cms
Now then!!!
Has NaMo and AS had a rethink of the magic 75!!!
Who knows...whatever the case may be, I can tell you there are many anti-Modi morons in India who have taken this "retire at 75" business seriously and are placing all hopes on 2024 for Modi's departure by retirement from the political scene. These people may be feeling seriously disturbed now.

what if Modi then becomes the president

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 08 Mar 2021 15:06

Mukhi wrote:As far as PK is concern, I for one do not take him lightly. Or any opponent for that mater. I have followed him closely since 2014 and he seems to have developed and put in place processes to manage elections.

He always claims to make marginal improvement of 2-5 % additional votes for his candidates when his IPAC is involved. This translates to many victories.

I kept on requesting a copy of his paper on Gujarat’s Malnutrition and got response from whomever handles his titer account that its not available for Public. I even offered to pay if reasonable but the request was denied. This would have truly given me the chance to study him and his analytic thought process. Still looking for his materials if anyone can help.

As far as BJP taking garbage, I too am against it. But, it is a pragmatic approach where BJP is making inroads and against all odds. It takes 20 plus years to have an organic growth for a party like BJP. That would be too much time to pass without Power. If BJP can speed up this process by collecting Garbage, for the time being, it is an acceptable trade off.

As Priyanka Gandhi once said, Parivartan Ke Lea Satta Me Hona Jaruri Hai. (It is becessary to be in the Power if you want to change). Just look at the Maharashtra case.

You can just join IPAC.

I have interacted with IPAC guys, they worked out of same building as mine for some time (2-3 months). Pretty smart guys, with corporate and IIM backgrounds. They looked practical and had good data collection is what the TL said, did not divulge any other info. I presume they are good in last mile marketing and converting undecided votes. They packed and moved the whole lot to Kolkatta after a month at end of 2019.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 08 Mar 2021 16:19

chetak wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
Who knows...whatever the case may be, I can tell you there are many anti-Modi morons in India who have taken this "retire at 75" business seriously and are placing all hopes on 2024 for Modi's departure by retirement from the political scene. These people may be feeling seriously disturbed now.

what if Modi then becomes the president[/quote]
Now that would be the real 'Sting in the Tail'

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Mar 2021 16:38

Vadivel wrote: I have interacted with IPAC guys, they worked out of same building as mine for some time (2-3 months). Pretty smart guys, with corporate and IIM backgrounds. They looked practical and had good data collection is what the TL said, did not divulge any other info. I presume they are good in last mile marketing and converting undecided votes. They packed and moved the whole lot to Kolkatta after a month at end of 2019.

There is no doubt that they are having people with some good resume. But election wins are can not be just "managed" in the last few months of before elections. Not when there is a massive lack of governance and massive anti incumbency on the ruling party and in case of opposition years of total lethargy. We all know that better candidate selection, good poll day management and better messaging will result in 2-5% gain. So that is new the IPAC people are brining in other than their lap tops?

An intelligent political leader and even people like Ram Vilas Paswan or Ajit Singh can know who wins and who loses before hand. They do not need fancy degrees for that.

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 08 Mar 2021 17:25

Yagnasri wrote:
Vadivel wrote: I have interacted with IPAC guys, they worked out of same building as mine for some time (2-3 months). Pretty smart guys, with corporate and IIM backgrounds. They looked practical and had good data collection is what the TL said, did not divulge any other info. I presume they are good in last mile marketing and converting undecided votes. They packed and moved the whole lot to Kolkatta after a month at end of 2019.
There is no doubt that they are having people with some good resume. But election wins are can not be just "managed" in the last few months of before elections. Not when there is a massive lack of governance and massive anti incumbency on the ruling party and in case of opposition years of total lethargy. We all know that better candidate selection, good poll day management and better messaging will result in 2-5% gain. So that is new the IPAC people are brining in other than their lap tops?

An intelligent political leader and even people like Ram Vilas Paswan or Ajit Singh can know who wins and who loses before hand. They do not need fancy degrees for that.

Yes.

From what i can guess, they bring process, perception and data management and would be able to bring results where the competition is neck-to-neck. Also strategize where they can focus to win and not focus on seats which they would not be able to win (using data) apart from party cadre independently. PK might have learnt all that from AS. Also they don't start 2-3 months, they start 2 yrs ahead, ipac was signed up by DMK and TMC 2 yrs before elections.

Off course all this being said, they need to have something to sell. They obviously cannot sell turd.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Mar 2021 18:08

Vadivel wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:
There is no doubt that they are having people with some good resume. But election wins are can not be just "managed" in the last few months of before elections. Not when there is a massive lack of governance and massive anti incumbency on the ruling party and in case of opposition years of total lethargy. We all know that better candidate selection, good poll day management and better messaging will result in 2-5% gain. So that is new the IPAC people are brining in other than their lap tops?

An intelligent political leader and even people like Ram Vilas Paswan or Ajit Singh can know who wins and who loses before hand. They do not need fancy degrees for that.
Yes.

From what i can guess, they bring process, perception and data management and would be able to bring results where the competition is neck-to-neck. Also strategize where they can focus to win and not focus on seats which they would not be able to win (using data) apart from party cadre independently. PK might have learnt all that from AS. Also they don't start 2-3 months, they start 2 yrs ahead, ipac was signed up by DMK and TMC 2 yrs before elections.

Off course all this being said, they need to have something to sell. They obviously cannot sell turd.

this guy is desperately looking for a seat in the parliament and is hoping to make it to the RS through some party or the other and like he has been extractive in his dealings with all parties, he would be expected to pay a very hefty sum for the seat

surprisingly though, and considering all the shady people that he has so far dealt with, no one has obliged him.

one gathers that this is among the first demands that he always makes.

it is also why the BJP hurriedly jettisoned him like the radioactive hot potato that he is

he is as crooked as they come.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Mar 2021 20:31

I wonder what is the status of Dr. BB of 5forty3 ? He seems still active on social media, but his company doesn't seem to exist any more. Did it go belly-up or merged into BJP ? He was the only reliable election analyst in the last 7 years.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Mar 2021 21:31

This guy knows what he is talking about.

well worth your time watching the entire talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygG-K7cN12c&t=425s

Why Mamata Banerjee May Not Score a Hat-trick in the Upcoming West Bengal Assembly Polls

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 09 Mar 2021 03:39

My bredictions:
AS - BJP/NDA
WB - BJP
PD - NDA
TN - picture is muddy....with AMMK joining AIMIM and contesting the elections, it is unclear whether UPA or NDA will gain
KL - either commies will be back with a narrow victory, or it will be a split assembly

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 09 Mar 2021 05:02

I like kl to be split with no clean majority, will ldf or udf provide outside support then ? That's khel Khatam for one of the players

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 09 Mar 2021 06:58

I heard from some TN people the following: NDA is likely to gain from the recent developments. On one hand AIMIM will pull significant "green" votes from INC/DMK. On the other hand, TTV Dhinakaran is widely considered a joker. With Sasikala deciding to sit down, he has no significant influence and will not be able to pull many votes from AIADMK. Any opinions ?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 09 Mar 2021 08:20

chetak wrote:This guy knows what he is talking about.

well worth your time watching the entire talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygG-K7cN12c&t=425s

Why Mamata Banerjee May Not Score a Hat-trick in the Upcoming West Bengal Assembly Polls

Very interesting video to listen to. Anti-CPM sentiment which helped TMC likely to repeat as anti-TMC for the benefit of BJP. Separately, it was refreshing to hear TMC's crime report on The Liar. The host does not get into the details, but just hearing the headlines is horrifying.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Mar 2021 09:42

chetak wrote:
darshan wrote:Kutch origin, Bengal politician Dinesh Trivedi joins BJP
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/03/06/ ... joins-bjp/
the BJP is turning out to be a garbage collection service and it is already facing a dire situation in KAR where every two bit turncoat who joined it thinks that the sun only shines out of his nether regions and goes all mercenary in demanding plum portfolios and the chance to swindle big money.

the loyal BJP workers slog it out all year long and these opportunistic party hopping clowns waltz in from other parties, and more often than not, get the BJP ticket to contest, leaving these loyal BJP workers out in the cold and still expected by the BJP to loyally soldier on by getting these traitors elected.

Trivedi is actually a decent educated guy who can put his head down and handle a portfolio. Good catch for the BJP.
It's the peaceful rioters that have joined recently that has raised eyebrows. Same with some nonsensical uncouth tmc leaders who bring no value.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 09 Mar 2021 09:59

chetak wrote:This guy knows what he is talking about.

well worth your time watching the entire talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygG-K7cN12c&t=425s

Why Mamata Banerjee May Not Score a Hat-trick in the Upcoming West Bengal Assembly Polls

very impressive. Thank you for the link.

According to Sajjan Kumar:

Mamata's partiality to Muslims has come at the expense of SC/STs in mofussils and villages who live in close proximity to the Muslims. A lot of these SC/STs are refugees from Muslim atrocities in Bangladesh / East Pakistan. They retain a historic memory of what befell their communities and how they were dispossessed by Muslims. They hate TMC for doing to them in India what the Muslims did to them in Bangladesh.

The 2021 vote is going to be a negative vote against TMC. CPM is no longer an option because Mamata destroyed the class consciousness and ideology of the CPM, and broke the CPM's ground-level cadres with intimidation, violence and co-optation. So, Left is either non-existent or its cadres are merged with TMC in large measure. That leaves the BJP as the only viable alternative for the voter who wants to reject the TMC.

The alleged smaller crowds for.BJP meetings are of no significance for this reason. The voters have already made up their minds to vote out TMC, and they are not worried about who the BJP candidates or campaigners are. WB voters are used to the climate of fear and intimidation that ruling parties impose, so they just decide which they want to vote and then keep quiet about it till voting time. That means, they will answer surveys with "don't know" or "can't say", and don't show their hand by attending rallies etc.

The wave of defections to BJP is also because politicians at the ground level have sensed the shift of popular will and want to be on the winning team.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Mar 2021 10:00

Mukhi wrote:Just watched PK’s interview. Presence of hidden psy war. His bet to leave the space of Political Strategist if BJP gets more than 100 seats. How can BJP do UP in WB?? Not Dhoti Shivering but curious question.

Last election - 83% Turnout (Wiki)
TMC - 45% @ 24,565,000 Votes VS 39% in 2011
Left - 20% @ 10,802,000 Votes VS 32% in 2011
INC - 12% @ 6,701,000 Votes VS 9% in 2011
BJP - 10% @ 5,555,000 Votes - None in 2011

Present Population - Approx - 104,000,000.
Muslims - 27%
Christians - 1%
Rest Including Hindus - 72%

Eligible Voters - 83,295,000
Expected Voting Estimates Based on Historic Data - 83% (Pure Guess But Based on History)

Meaning, BJP needs to keep its vote share intact and gain additional 12,500,000 votes from across the board to win Majority.

Gurus on the Ground. What say you??

Either BJP wins outright or there is hung assembly. The leftcongislamist grouping is going to seriously dent TMC's muslim votebank but ISF might be gaining disproportionately at the expense of its 2 coalition partners. TMC voteshare is going to crash badly, down to 30-35 from around mid40's in previous elections.

There's a rumour going around that BJP's 2019 good showing came on the back of en masse vote transfer from left cadres and that may not repeat this time. The question is whether the ground level left cadre did so on orders of their leaders and whether the discipline of the left cadres still hold. IOW, will they change their voting behaviour this time around and vote for siddiqui.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 09 Mar 2021 23:29

West Bengal Election 2021: Opinion Poll

The Trinamool Congress is predicted to get 42.2 per cent vote share and 157 seats, 57 less than what it had got in 2016. The BJP, the key challenger to TMC, is expected to get 37.5 per cent vote share and 107 seats, up by 104 seats from 2016, when it had got just 3. In the previous assembly elections, the saffron party’s vote share was just 10.16 per cent whereas the TMC had the largest vote share of nearly 45 per cent (44.91 to be precise).

The Third Front of Congress and Left is predicted to get just 33 seats, down by 43 than what it had got in 2016.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 10 Mar 2021 00:27

KLNM

Thank you for that succinct summary.

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 10 Mar 2021 00:42

KL Dubey wrote:I heard from some TN people the following: NDA is likely to gain from the recent developments. On one hand AIMIM will pull significant "green" votes from INC/DMK. On the other hand, TTV Dhinakaran is widely considered a joker. With Sasikala deciding to sit down, he has no significant influence and will not be able to pull many votes from AIADMK. Any opinions ?

AIMM is contesting in only 3 seats mainly where Urdu speaking Muslims are in significant numbers. its disadvantage DMK. TTV will see vote erosion due to SK exit.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2021 04:49

madhu wrote:West Bengal Election 2021: Opinion Poll

Very poorly written news item. 157 is just the raw "result" from the poll data, but the error margin seems huge. The poll says 89 seats have a very thin margin wherein a 1.5% voteshare shift can totally change the result. Since there are no methodologies (except maybe Dr. BB) that can predict with better than 2% vote share error, the poll itself has no value.

The likely result can only be discerned by those with a long-lived presence on the ground.

In the end, the result is going to be determined by (1) how the parties' momentum shapes up in the final few weeks runup, and (2) who can more effectively mobilize the vote on election day. Right now BJP has the clear momentum and an enthused cadre, whereas the TMC is seeing massive defections. BJP should be the favorite to win. Polls should be showing the BJP breaking away with the lead as the election day draws nearer.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2021 06:51

It's written with point of view.

As elections draw closer you will see the non-linear hockey stick effect for undecided will go with a rising party.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2021 15:09

madhu wrote:West Bengal Election 2021: Opinion Poll
The Trinamool Congress is predicted to get 42.2 per cent vote share and 157 seats, 57 less than what it had got in 2016. The BJP, the key challenger to TMC, is expected to get 37.5 per cent vote share and 107 seats, up by 104 seats from 2016, when it had got just 3. In the previous assembly elections, the saffron party’s vote share was just 10.16 per cent whereas the TMC had the largest vote share of nearly 45 per cent (44.91 to be precise).

The Third Front of Congress and Left is predicted to get just 33 seats, down by 43 than what it had got in 2016.

chup chap, kamal chaap

this factor has not been taken into consideration and there are a large number of "don't knows" and can't says" that may have been interpreted conventionally to skew the results of these predictions/surveys

this is a highly savvy, polarized and politicized electorate, about to vote in a watershed election and they are playing their cards very close to their chests.

The bengali muslim wet dream of a west bangladesh is finally out in the open and that old and ever present genie just will not go back into the communal bottle again

one suspects that a hornet's nest has been needlessly stirred and to no purpose.

The still fresh images of beedi jehadis wantonly destroying Indian trains and setting fire to Hindu properties, aided and abetted by a silently watching bengal state/city polis and a shrieking crazy lady egging the crowds on with her violent anti CAA, NRC and communal diatribe, all unexplained when it is clearly known to them that the beedis themselves have an NRC in their country as do the pakis

It is very surprising how quickly the beleaguered ~~communal~~ oops, "sickular" Indian politicos always default to their Hindu and allegedly "brahmin" roots to whitewash their gross sins of omission and commission against the hapless Hindus in their state and scurry about in a frenzy, visiting temples, seeking blessing from various gods and goddesses and reciting Vedic and religious mantras, some even jumping into the sea in a carefully choreographed display of their "common touch" with the voters

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2021 17:54

mullah ki daud masjid thak

sidelined by the congis, p c chacko "resigns".

just how long did he expect to stay in power and continue to ~~mint~~ oops, serve the people

many abrahamic culties from KER seem to follow this logic.

now suddenly, like his pal, tom vaddakan, chacko too will suddenly discover the unassailable virtues of the BJP

all these old warhorses have never been enthused by the rousing sound of the bugle but only by the spoils of the battle

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 10 Mar 2021 18:14

chetak wrote:mullah ki daud masjid thak

sidelined by the congis, p c chacko "resigns".

just how long did he expect to stay in power and continue to ~~mint~~ oops, serve the people

many abrahamic culties from KER seem to follow this logic.

now suddenly, like his pal, tom vaddakan, chacko too will suddenly discover the unassailable virtues of the BJP

all these old warhorses have never been enthused by the rousing sound of the bugle but only by the spoils of the battle

Isn't this person Chako made congress election head in Delhi? only congress can do such blunder by giving mantel to outsider who has no knowledge or pulse of ground realities. net result total white wash with Congress mukt delhi.

on side note, KL economy big chunk is with Christians, and they may get cosy with BJP if they smell some wind. better BJP stay on with Dharmic values and show door wherever needed.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 Mar 2021 00:24

Picture muddied further in TN.....DMDK (DMK with extra D for Drunkard) wants to go it alone instead of with NDA. Wonder why all these jokers are in politics.

Mukhi · Post by **Mukhi** » 11 Mar 2021 00:39

https://youtu.be/bU8Q1f4YF2c

FWD to me by my classmate residing in WB. Lets see how this plays out. Damned if you respond, damned if you don't.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 11 Mar 2021 03:07

chetak wrote:mullah ki daud masjid thak

sidelined by the congis, p c chacko "resigns".

just how long did he expect to stay in power and continue to ~~mint~~ oops, serve the people

many abrahamic culties from KER seem to follow this logic.

now suddenly, like his pal, tom vaddakan, chacko too will suddenly discover the unassailable virtues of the BJP

all these old warhorses have never been enthused by the rousing sound of the bugle but only by the spoils of the battle

If they are not with us, they are against us.

Hence, I think BJP keeps taking on such guys. The real trick is keeping them but not giving them too much to spoil the party as well.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 11 Mar 2021 03:21

chetak wrote:
...

all these old warhorses have never been enthused by the rousing sound of the bugle but only by the spoils of the battle

Captures ancien regime politics in a nutshell.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Mar 2021 10:23

https://twitter.com/bjp4tnkaruroff/stat ... 35330?s=19

TN BJP contests