Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

disha · Post by **disha** » 19 Mar 2021 00:56

^Opening up the vaccines for all. Nodal centers for mass vaccinations (like stadia or mobile vaccination centers at mass events) and targetted mobile vaccinations.

One thing that will indeed help is a single jab vaccine.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 19 Mar 2021 00:57

EU's drama with AstraZeneca vaccine continues:

EU to send letter to AstraZeneca in possible first step of legal action

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission will send a letter to AstraZeneca as part of efforts to resolve a dispute with the Anglo-Swedish company over its supplies of COVID-19 vaccines to the bloc, a spokesman for the EU executive said on Thursday.

The company is required under its contract with the EU to deliver 300 million doses by the end of June, but it said last week it aimed to ship only 100 million, due to production problems and export restrictions.

“We plan to send a letter to AstraZeneca that will allow us to begin a dialogue with the company as part of a process to resolve the dispute,” the spokesman told a news conference.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 19 Mar 2021 01:42

Covid-19: Centre mulling above-45 vaccine

The Centre’s advisers are discussing a proposal to offer Covid-19 vaccines to people 45 years or older amid fears of a second nationwide wave and demands from health experts and state authorities to widen vaccination coverage.

A proposal to extend the vaccination campaign to all people above 45 years is “under consideration in addition to coverage for elderly and those not elderly but living with comorbidities (chronic illnesses),” an adviser to the Centre told The Telegraph.

“Given the number of the vaccination centres active and the amount of vaccines supplied, the number administered could have been twice higher,” a senior doctor and adviser to the government told this newspaper.

A Serum executive had indicated to The Telegraph last year that the company could supply up to 50 million doses a month by March, while a Bharat official told a webinar earlier this month the company could supply about 40 million doses a month.

The current pace is about 1 crore shots per week or about 4.3 crores shots per month. The two vaccine suppliers are willing to supply 9 crore shots per month. The govt. needs to look at all bottleneck at war-footing and then start making changes to the way the campaign is going on. Lowering the eligibility age is just the first step.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2021 02:43

Meanwhile western countries are busy making enemies:
Pfizer plays hardball in Covid-19 vaccine negotiations with Latin American countries

Folks, during the talk with CMs a day ago, the PMO had urged good suggestions to be made directly to them. Wrap the message up succinctly and post on PMOIndia. It'll get seen if enough people do it.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Mar 2021 08:56

#COVID19 - Outbreak In India
@outbreak_india

#LargestVaccinationDrive
Day 61: India #vaccination update, 18-Mar at 7 AM
Total Vaccinated: 3,71,43,255 20,78,719

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2021 09:15

^^ That is a day old data. Updated figures including Thursday is almost 40 million.

Total Vaccination : 3,93,39,817 (up 22,02,861)

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Mar 2021 13:56

Though we have not handled the vaccine rollout as well as (in hindsight) we could have, I'm optimistic about the vaccination drive for several reasons.

54% of our fatalities are from people above 60. The 60+ age groups accounts for only 8% of Indians of which, under 3% are urban (which is where almost all the fatalities are). To put it simplistically, vaccinating 3% of our population will reduce deaths by half.
We are already close to vaccinating that 3% I think it would be done by end April (both doses).

The fatality rate of the remainder of the population is now about 0.2%
Outside of Maharashtra, there is currently a 2% chance of contracting Covid. Hence, if you are under 60, there is a 1 in 25000 chance of dying - those odds will increase with each day of the vaccine drive and surge in cases that contribute to herd immunity of the non vaccinated.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Mar 2021 14:07

Europe has removed the temporary halt on Astrazeneca vaccines. France will restart AZ vaccines from today.

On the other hand, infections continue to rise in France and ICU beds are nearly saturated. The Govt has issued new lock down measures, for at least the next 1 month. While schools remain open, adults have to remain within a 10km radius of their domicile unless they have a justifiable reason (doctor visit, essential services etc), night curfew from 7PM to 7AM will continue. Non essential businesses will remain closed.

Unemployment benefits will be reduced by 30% from this summer. There is only so much one can dip into reserves and support the people when there is no clear end in sight.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 19 Mar 2021 21:10

Another 19.39 Lakhs till 8 pm today. Total now 4.089 crores shots.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2021 21:50

Uttam wrote:Another 19.39 Lakhs till 8 pm today. Total now 4.089 crores shots.

Daily rate averaged over the whole week so far exceeds the daily vaccination rate in the US this week. >2M shots every day so far this week, with 3m on Monday.

I assume this 8pm stat is from Cowin ? Asking because the PR only lists upto 7pm: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1706161 . It says 18,16,161 vaccine doses upto 7pm. So they added another 123,000 odd vaccinations in the single hour around dinner time.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 19 Mar 2021 22:28

Suraj wrote:
I assume this 8pm stat is from Cowin ? Asking because the PR only lists upto 7pm: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1706161 . It says 18,16,161 vaccine doses upto 7pm. So they added another 123,000 odd vaccinations in the single hour around dinner time.

I checked Cowin dashboard at about 8:40 IST. Not sure how real-time the data of Cowin.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 19 Mar 2021 22:42

New covid cases in MH are at an all-time high, beating the previous record set last year. This is getting out of hand again. And with it I have a different concern now. When the vaccination centers were first opened in Mumbai, there were a lot of scenes of overcrowding. I'm not sure what the situation is now but when the age limit is reduced further and eligibility criteria expanded there will be another surge in number of people seeking vaccinations. The problem is with covid spreading rapidly it is highly likely that the vaccination spots themselves might become dangerous with the large crowds. The vaccine does not protect you instantly so if you are exposed on the day of the vaccination, you will likely get sick anyway. And then of course we will see the clueless media propagating stories of people getting sick after or despite vaccinations.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2021 22:51

Is there a good graphic on hotspots in MH by current case count ? This is basically one state making a dog's breakfast of every major socio-economic policy effort lately, including COVID response.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 19 Mar 2021 23:03

Suraj wrote:Is there a good graphic on hotspots in MH by current case count ? This is basically one state making a dog's breakfast of every major socio-economic policy effort lately, including COVID response.

You can try this one: https://www.bing.com/covid/local/maharashtra_india

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Mar 2021 23:05

nachiket wrote:
Suraj wrote:Is there a good graphic on hotspots in MH by current case count ? This is basically one state making a dog's breakfast of every major socio-economic policy effort lately, including COVID response.
You can try this one: https://www.bing.com/covid/local/maharashtra_india

Thanks - that looks great!

saip · Post by **saip** » 19 Mar 2021 23:07

On Feb 12, India had 136K active cases and now about 5 weeks later it doubled to 270k. Is it because of new variants? Or is it mismanagement by states like MH and KL where most of the cases are happening? GOI should concentrate on these two or three states that are accounting for more than 75% of the cases. Stricter lockdowns and increasing the vaccinations in these states even if it means reducing the vaccinations for other states. It might not be fair for other states but the virus does not care about state borders.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 19 Mar 2021 23:25

Mumbai is a tough area to manage due to the insane population density in a small area with a terrible road infrastructure. The problem is made worse by a clueless government and people behaving as if covid is a thing of the past (which is what I saw when I visited the city last month). Even people who had seen relatives and acquaintances get sick and die from covid didn't seem to be too particular about masks and precautions. I will never understand this mentality. It is difficult to blame the government when you see people behaving like this.

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 20 Mar 2021 00:12

^^ While I agree on the way people are behaving not just in Mumbai but Pune as well, I have relatives in other states that are also going to weddings/gatherings as normal and say everything is open without restrictions. It does not explain the disproportionate rise in 1 state unless there are other measures that are being taken across India that MH is missing.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 20 Mar 2021 00:15

Numbers out of Pune are not too far behind Mumbai, despite Pune being a third of the size by population. There may be correlation between GDP as a proxy for economic activity and number of infections.

disha · Post by **disha** » 20 Mar 2021 00:28

^It is completely clueless government of Mah to blame.

UP, Bihar which were called a lawless state are showing better outcomes. Assam which has larger logistical challenges is doing just fine. And just north of Mah is Gujarat which is managing okay.

The urban challenges mumbai has, the same challenges other states have in their big unplanned cities. Mah government had lot of time to get its act together, but it did not and the citizens are suffering.

Entire film industry could have been roped in for social distancing and masks. However, what we see is the son of ex-cm kissing hands of a bollywood actress and his wife looks on angrily. No social distancing. No masks. All party.

One cannot expect ordinary citizens to follow a proscribed path when the icons of the city themselves throw caution to wind and flout those path.

What did Mah government do? What is its famous film industry which is in every bit linked to politics do?

Added later: https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-03-18

The amount fined was ~Rs. 20k for the patrons frequenting "restaurant and bar" without any coronavirus precautions and this same hoity-toity crowd will go around bad-mouthing India and Indians.

Shameek · Post by **Shameek** » 20 Mar 2021 00:44

While it is true that the MH government is clueless, is there a theory behind why the cases were at their lowest 3-4 weeks back and have accelerated now? Did people in MH stop following rules in Feb while everywhere else in the country people are strictly following distancing and masks? There are election rallies, religious gatherings and other events happening elsewhere that could have the potential to spread the virus, but we don't see that happening.
It would be interesting to know if there are actual steps being taken by other states in the last 2 months that is keeping this in check.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 20 Mar 2021 01:14

Latest from Cowin 23.5 lakhs today eod. Total up to 4.13 crores.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 20 Mar 2021 01:16

Interestingly enough, Dharavi in Mumbai is seeing a surge in cases as well. This is a place thought to have achieved herd immunity. Either the population has been replaced, or antibodies after recovery did not last long enough.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 20 Mar 2021 02:03

IMHO, the thread should avoid wasting time on MH politicians etc etc. All of that may be 400.4% true but it's noise here. This battle cannot be won by anger and emotions. Most definitely, if you want to start venting, go away and hit a pillow or something.

Are there serological data analysis results suggesting a new variant at play here ? MH did not magically become incompetent in the past month - they've been quite stable in that regard. So what's the factor(s) causing a sudden rise in a handful of localized areas ?

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 20 Mar 2021 03:19

Herd immunity speculations are just that. Every country is going through multiple waves except for china where govt has full control. Only way forward is vaccinations and maybe even booster shots for years till a clear treatment is discovered.

We are now fighting against the next wave. We need to reach a high enough coverage before then. This wave is already here and we just have to ride it out.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 20 Mar 2021 08:02

It could be the sudden variations in weather atleast here in Pune. Mid of Feb and the Family went through flu like symptoms for a day (except me, just tiredness), along with atleast 10 families I immediately know of and maybe plenty more. Doctors can tell us more I believe the virus was already in circulation (endemic?) , but the weather with over 20 deg difference between highest and lowest temperature of the day could be the trigger. I am still sniffling, haven't had a cold since Nov 2019, when the situation was similar (Family and bunch of others down with the flu). Infact I suspect the China virus came here much earlier than thought of, in the Dec-19 timeframe, because that's when I heard of 2-3 members of a local senior citizen group dying of pneumonia. Till that time I had not come across anyone dying of pneumonia ever.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 20 Mar 2021 10:29

Uttam wrote:Latest from Cowin 23.5 lakhs today eod. Total up to 4.13 crores.

MoHFW data for Friday was 2.72 million. Cumulatively just over 42 million.

Monday 3.04M
Tuesday 2.17M
Wednesday 2.08M
Thursday 2.20M
Friday 2.72M

Five day total = 11 million
Per day: 2.2 million average

disha · Post by **disha** » 20 Mar 2021 12:34

Mah and Kerala are states which need to be studied on what local government can do and cannot do, did do and did not do. Particularly on 'did not do' part.

Mah did not keep its eye on the ball and what the pandemic has showed us is that it is as much a political initiative and imperative as much as the medical part in ensuring a epidemic burdens the least.

All state governments must do the messaging, that is use the MOHFW guidelines sanely. Maintain distance, have masks, restrict indoor gatherings, minimize travel etc. One must also take cognizance of the fact that one year in, fatigue sets in and humans want to go back to "normal". This inherent urge is irrational and cannot be addressed by simple rational arguments. And given a vaccine, I will not be surprised if people feel as super heros immediately. Hence the state government messaging always helps.

In Tirupati the lines are purposely snaked so that the appearance of constant moving happens. Or the luggage collection at airport is further from the gate. One will feel that the luggage has arrived sooner!

And importantly keep on testing. It so appears that the testing also dropped precipitously. This was also called out in the states meeting. And as soon as the numbers started increasing, the testing increased and hence we are finding ourselves "surprised" that the cases exploded. It was "exploding" underneath, only noticed now.

Now that we are here with cases exploding, the next best thing is to adhere to sane practices and mass vaccinations. And there are several ways that can be done. Already discussed in several pages on this thread by other members.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 20 Mar 2021 13:43

still v slow pace of vax... idk whats holding the govt back from making it free for all ?? and utilise almost 40& unused capacity

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 20 Mar 2021 13:56

https://theprint.in/health/india-orders ... ot/624823/

India has ordered 10 crore doses of Covishield and 2 crore of Covaxin at a renegotiated price of Rs 150 per dose (with taxes), a significant reduction from the earlier Rs 210 per dose (with taxes).

Deliveries will start towards the end of the month.

The first one crore doses of Covishield, manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII), will start coming in from 27 March in tranches of 20 lakh doses per day. A little over 7.5 crore vaccines have already been distributed to states of which less than 4 crore (3,93,39,817) have been used so far.

Seems there was a supply bottleneck. Hopefully GoI will ramp up vaccinations from April. If they can hit ~20 crore by end of April, will be great.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Mar 2021 14:15

Why so few Covaxin? Shouldnt we be moving to Covaxin instead of Covishield? Production constraint at Bharat Biotech?

VickyAvinash · Post by **VickyAvinash** » 20 Mar 2021 14:50

My parents received vaccination at a local government hospital in Amritsar. No pre-registration needed, they just walked in and were freed in 30 mins. Asked to wait for 10-20 mins post vaccination but they decided to wait for 30 mins instead. A long queue followed immediately and there is a healthy response from public. Parents were sceptical earlier, but, word of mouth helped. In my opinion, word of mouth matters a lot in this age group where they trusted their own peers more than all my arguments. As more and more people are vaccinated, and word of mouth spreads, we will see more participation. Doctors at the hospital confirmed that there is a continuous rise of vaccination in last 20 days after initial slow response.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 Mar 2021 16:06

Pakistan PM Imran Khan tests positive for Covid-19
By hindustantimes.com, New Delhi
UPDATED ON MAR 20, 2021 03:20 PM IST
"PM Imran Khan has tested positive for Covid-19 and is self isolating at home," Pakistan health minister wrote in a tweet.

nam · Post by **nam** » 20 Mar 2021 16:20

Personally I don't support making it open for all at this moment. The most at risk are 60+ and comorbidities. Once you make it open for all, it becomes difficult for older people to get vaccinated. They cannot stay at these centers for long period waiting for their turns. Chances are these centers will run out of vaccines.

GoI needs to figure out a way to speed up vaccination among these groups. Older people seem to be dependent on their kids to take them to vaccination. Might be the reason why we see Monday & Friday with high numbers.

I think it would be better if GoI opens up temporary vaccination locations by using Adhar age and home address. UK has moved the second dose to 12-16 weeks. We should do something similar and get maximum numbers vaccinated.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 20 Mar 2021 16:43

Here is data point. I just saw a message on my society’s WhatsApp in Haryana. The local Primary Health Center is asking eligible people of the society to register for vaccination. They will come to the community center of the society to vaccinate if the number of registrations exceed 50.

I thought vaccination is allowed only at the approved medical centers. Is that not correct?

Anybody else experienced this?

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 20 Mar 2021 18:41

Superspreader events behind new Covid-19 surge: Niti Aayog member V K Paul

Guess our people refuse to learn. From Dec to Feb, people are traveling inter-state in trains/buses to attend weddings where 500+ people have gathered that too without mask. Any kind of advise on restraint will result in statements like "how long should we live with restrictions?" "Government itself is not asking or bothered about regulations".

Anyways, only hope is faster vaccination. Heard at least one hospital in BLR is accepting anyone over 50 for vaccinations...

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 20 Mar 2021 19:03

Uttam wrote:Here is data point. I just saw a message on my society’s WhatsApp in Haryana. The local Primary Health Center is asking eligible people of the society to register for vaccination. They will come to the community center of the society to vaccinate if the number of registrations exceed 50.

I thought vaccination is allowed only at the approved medical centers. Is that not correct?

Anybody else experienced this?

My sister reported that at her apartment complex the Cotporation Health Centre set up a vaccination camp and vaccinated all the eligible citizens which in actual practice translated to all those above 45 years of age. They brought the vaccines in a special ice box which keeps the vaccines in approved temperature for 2 to 3 hours. She was unsure about whether they came in a refrigerated van before unpacking it on to an ice box. They came, set it up and completed the process in 3 hours and went.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 20 Mar 2021 20:30

nam wrote:Personally I don't support making it open for all at this moment. The most at risk are 60+ and comorbidities. Once you make it open for all, it becomes difficult for older people to get vaccinated. They cannot stay at these centers for long period waiting for their turns. Chances are these centers will run out of vaccines.

GoI needs to figure out a way to speed up vaccination among these groups. Older people seem to be dependent on their kids to take them to vaccination. Might be the reason why we see Monday & Friday with high numbers.

I think it would be better if GoI opens up temporary vaccination locations by using Adhar age and home address. UK has moved the second dose to 12-16 weeks. We should do something similar and get maximum numbers vaccinated.

my father is 90 and the only way he can get it is if I get it as he does not venture out of the house. they could have designated 2 days a week for older people and open on all other days... capacity is going waste.. totally stupid GOI policies. the people who venture out of the house need to be vaxed first... or atleast simultaneously. I live in a ashram and our ashram has purchased vaccines and is doing independent vaccinations though as per GOI laid out procedure and everybody is getting a certificate.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 20 Mar 2021 21:45

So a cousin & his wife in US, who works for a pharma company recently got vaccinated. Company decided to first vaccinate their employees and then the dependents as well. I hope GoI allows PSUs/DPSUs, Factories, banks and many other companies where WFH is not possible, to vaccinate their employees starting next month. The vaccination can be done at their facility (for Factories & PSUs etc.) or for banks etc., tie up with a nearest diagnostic center or small clinics. We are burning days and possible vaccines...we need to vaccinate at least 60% of our population. The numbers are certainly picking up (think we did 2.4 million first dose vaccinations yesterday) but need to speed it up and make sure capacity does not go to waste.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 20 Mar 2021 23:23

India went past Indonesia and Bangladesh in vaccination rate this past week. Next up is Sri Lanka which should take another 1-2 weeks. In terms of daily new vaccinations, we also surpassed Europe wide average in the past week.

I hope we can get to >3M average next week.